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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Fed looks like it's following the same path it did in 1995, according to TS Lombard.</li><li>That sets the stage for the economy to avoid a recession as it did in the 90s, the firm said.</li></ul>The Fed is following a 30-year-old playbook with its interest rate moves — and that's good news for the US economy, according to TS Lombard.The firm pointed to the central bank's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">50 basis point cut</a> to the federal fund rate this week. That was <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/interest-rates-today-fed-meeting-cut-stock-market-powell-economy-2024-9">exactly what investors were looking for</a>, and it could lay the groundwork for a booming stock market and economy, according to Dario Perkins, the firm's managing director of global macro.He notes that the Fed's latest rate cut has created a parallel to what central bankers did in 1995, when Fed officials eased the Federal funds rate from a peak of 6% to around 4.75% over three years. That took interest rates back to a neutral level, stave off a recession, and ultimately spark a new economic boom. By 1998, GDP growth had accelerated from 4.4% to nearly 5%. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 500 soared 125% by the end of the Fed's cutting cycle, according to data from the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.aier.org/article/fed-rate-cuts-are-unlikely-to-goose-the-stock-market-or-prevent-a-recession/#:~:text=Case%20%233%20%E2%80%93%20In%20April%201995,and%2Da%2Dhalf%20years.">American Institute for Economic Research</a>.Fed officials look on track to pull off the same maneuver, Perkins suggested, attributing this week's jumbo-sized rate cut to central bankers' belief that they were further away from the neutral rate than they were several decades ago."Our view is that this cutting cycle will probably play out like Greenspan's mid-course 're-calibration' of policy in the mid-1990s," Perkins said in a note on Wednesday. "Even if the US labour market deteriorates more than we expect and the Fed falls behind the curve, there is no real threat of a deep recession."Stocks soared a day after the big rate cut. Despite wobbling in the hours after the Fed's rate move, the major indexes hit fresh records in Thursday trades. "We think the soft landing is still very much in play," Perkins added. "And while the danger of the Fed falling behind the curve is real, we think the repercussions would be manageable. It is hard to foresee anything worse than a mild recession," he later wrote.Some forecasters are still wary of the Fed's latest policy move due to concerns that cutting interest rates too quickly could ignite a fresh bout of inflation. The market, though, has mostly shrugged off that risk, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXPINF1YR">one-year forward inflation expectations</a> remaining just above 2% in September, according to Cleveland Fed data.

The Fed is following its 1995 playbook — and that's great news for stocks and the economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The global population is getting older. </li><li>The trend will lead to lower returns, earnings growth, and valuations, JPMorgan strategists say.</li></ul>The aging of the world population is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, which will likely produce bad outcomes for the stock market, JPMorgan strategists say.The strategists say that historically, an older population has led to declining returns, lower earnings growth, and weaker valuations.Over a 10-year period, a 1% increase in the number of people over 65 is correlated with a 0.92% decline in annual stock returns, the strategists calculated in a report released last week.They point mainly to slower growth and falling valuations.With an older investor base looking to save for retirement, investment capital declines, leading to less innovation. That, plus slower growth in the workforce, will have a negative impact on earnings growth, the strategists say."Domestic population aging may reduce earnings growth for several reasons. It leads to slower workforce growth, reducing domestic economic growth. There is also evidence that aging can reduce innovation and productivity growth," the strategists said.That's especially true for companies that derive revenue from international operations, the strategists say."For companies that derive more of their revenue from abroad, like multinationals, global population aging (in a GDP-weighted sense) is likely to be more consequential for earnings growth than local population aging," the strategists wrote.That means equity market indexes with small and mid-caps will likely see more impact from local population aging than those with exclusively large caps.Valuations will also take a hit, the strategists said. As the elderly empty their retirement funds, national savings decline, thus raising bond yields. Older populations also pull out of the market at higher rates, driving down stock prices.Those trends, plus lower earnings growth expectations, justify lower valuations, the strategists say.The strategists say there's one bright spot, though. That's healthcare, which older populations tend to spend more on."We find a clear positive relationship between aging and excess returns on the sector, driven entirely by faster earnings growth," the strategists said.A 1% increase in the population share of those over 65 will lead to a 0.85% increase in health care returns over a 10-year period, the strategists say.The strategists note, too, that the populating aging trend won't impact countries equally. In China, the elderly share of the population is set to increase by seven percentage points in the next decade. The US, meanwhile, will see a more moderate rise from 18.1% to 21.5%.Past reports have also warned of the aging population's impact on the economy.Earlier this year, Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said boomers, a historically large generation, are approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-gen-z-millennials-economy-housing-job-market-stocks-2024-2">"peak burden" on the US economy</a> in the next few years. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-economy-outlook-us-stock-market-ownership-old-americans-retirement-2024-1">a larger share of people over 55% owning stocks</a> in the US may be a downside risk to the market, as older investors often don't have the luxury of holding through a downturn and could exacerbate volatility by selling during market pullbacks.

The world population is growing older. That's bad news for the stock market.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes.</li><li>The release will offer more insight into what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy and inflation.</li></ul>US stocks were mixed early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which should give further guidance on the path of interest rates for the rest of the year. All three benchmark indexes traded slightly in the red, while bond yields were up slightly. Investors will be parsing through the Fed's latest meeting minutes later on Wednesday, which will give more insight into what central bankers are thinking about the economy and the trajectory of rate cuts this year and beyond. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year."The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating," Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. But expectations about the pace of easing may be set by the minutes."According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut."Even so, we still think the FOMC is putting undue emphasis on the current strength of the economy rather than the direction of travel and the lagged impact of earlier tightening still in the pipeline," economists at the research firm said in a note. "We expect a 25bp easing in November but think a soft run of jobs and activity data in Q4 and Q1 will soon have the Fed scrambling to avoid falling behind the curve."Central bankers will assess another jobs report and the September Consumer Price Index, which will be published Thursday morning, before making their next rate move. The inflation report will be a high-stakes data point for the Fed after the big September payroll report, with markets anxious that officials may have to turn their attention back to prices after pivoting to the labor market at their last meeting. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will issue a quarter-point cut, while odds of another jumbo-sized cut have been slashed completely, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Google parent Alphabet fell 1% in early trading as the US Department of Justice <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1052.0_1.pdf">indicated it could break up the tech giant</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,752.93, up 0.06% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,194.38, up 0.27% (+114 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,150.47, down 0.18%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">The economy is facing a "no-landing" scenario</a> that could take away some relief from higher interest rates.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">Fed rate cuts were expected to push mortgage rates lower</a>, but the opposite has happened.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">The bar for corporate earnings is low</a>. That's good news for stocks, as long as companies are feeling upbeat about rate cuts, according to Bank of America.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 2% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was fell 2% to $75.63 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.39% to $2,612.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was about flat at 4.041%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower 0.8% to trade at $61,930.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks ticked lower on Wednesday. </li><li>Shares of Nvidia wavered after rallying in the previous session. </li></ul>US stocks slumped on Wednesday, with major averages down as bond yields rose as Nvidia shares wavered and investors eyed fresh economic data. Nvidia shares slid as much as 1.2% in early-morning trading before paring losses, trading about 0.25% higher shortly after the opening bell. The chipmaker lost over $400 billion in a three-day stretch before recovering in Tuesday's session. The slide has given pause to traders that have ridden the artificial intelligence boom higher all year, and is casting doubt on how much room it left to run as the market heads into the second half of 2024. "So far, investors are viewing NVIDIA's sell-off as an opportunity to build up additional exposure," Morrison said in a note on Wednesday. "Let's see if investors remain so convinced of the chip designer's future that they drive it up to new highs. If so, then it will restore the company's status as the stock market's bullish bellwether. If not, then further weakness could easily sour sentiment in general, even if there is perceived value outside the tech leaders."Traders are also waiting for PCE inflation on Friday. The measure of consumer prices is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Dow Jones economists expect personal consumption expenditures inflation to rise 2.6% over the month of May, slightly lower than the 2.7% price increase recorded in April.Fed commentators this week have further tempered the market's bullishness around rate cuts this year. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted that a rate hike was still in the cards if inflation doesn't cooperate.Treasury yields were up on Wednesday. The 10-year bond yield rose six basis points to 4.3%. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,459.39, down 0.17% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,011.75, down 0.29% (-114.46 points) </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,702.33, down 0.09%Here's what else is going on today:</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dietrich-stock-market-outlook-bubble-crash-spx-recession-economy-fed-2024-6?_gl=1*1uwp8y9*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxOTQwMjMxNC44OC4xLjE3MTk0MDI2MzMuNjAuMC4w">The S&amp;P 500 could crater as much as 48%</a> when the stock market bubble finally pops, according to one elite strategist.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rivian-stock-price-soars-5-billion-jv-deal-with-volkswagen-2024-6">Rivian stock soared</a> after the EV maker inked a partnership deal with Volkswagen. </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/texas-negative-natural-gas-prices-heatwave-energy-supply-electricity-bills-2024-6">Natural gas prices in Texas</a> have turned negative despite a heat wave in the state. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil ticked higher 0.11% to $80.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose 0.19% to $84.39 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> dipped 0.98% to $2,296 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.302%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> ticked higher 0.72% to $61,544.</li></ul>

Stock market news: US stocks slide and bond yields rise as traders eye new economic data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Vaccine stocks have tumbled since Trump appointed vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to health secretary.</li><li>Vaccine-makers Moderna, Pfizer, and GSK saw sharp losses.</li></ul>It's been a tough day for health stocks since Donald Trump announced his appointment of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-robert-f-kennedy-jr-rfk-department-health-human-services-2024-11">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.</a> — a staunch vaccine skeptic — as health secretary.The news, which came late in the day on Thursday, sent the shares of vaccine-makers sharply lower on Friday, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/mrna-stock">Moderna</a> leading the losses, falling as much as 10%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pfe-stock">Pfizer</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvax-stock">Novavax</a> both dropped 6% at intraday lows, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gsk-stock">GSK</a> lost 5%.But the selling wasn't contained to just vaccine names. It spread into US-exposed European healthcare stocks, such as Novo Nordisk and Roche, which were down 5% and 3% at intraday lows, respectively.The losses extend a days-long skid for the sector after the election results last week saw investors boost bets that Kennedy — a key Trump ally — would notch a cabinet role.Since Election Day, Moderna has fallen more than 30%, while Pfizer has slid 11%. Those losses have stood in contrast to the rally enjoyed by the rest of the market, which has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">rallied</a> on the hopes that Trump's lighter regulatory stance and corporate tax cuts could boost corporate earnings.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-views-vaccines-autism-testing-debunked-2023-7">Kennedy</a> has long railed against vaccines, once calling those that protect against Covid-19 a "crime against humanity." He has treaded more carefully in recent weeks, though, and has said he wouldn't outright ban vaccines."If vaccines are working for somebody, I'm not going to take that away. People ought to have choice," he told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-win-rfk-jr-says-wont-take-away-anybodys-vaccines-rcna178955">NBC</a> after Trump's election.Since Trump's election win, several analysts have downgraded their outlooks on vaccine stocks amid the rising uncertainty in the industry. Bank of America analysts lowered their price target on Moderna last week, from $110 to $90, partially citing uncertainty after Trump's election win, while Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Papadakis cut his rating on GSK to a hold after Kennedy's appointment."We consider vaccines to be amongst the greatest scientific achievements to impact public health: unfortunately this view is not shared by the nominee," Papadakis wrote in a client note <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-15/health-stocks-slide-as-trump-picks-vaccine-skeptic-kennedy">seen by Bloomberg</a>.Formerly an environmental justice lawyer, Kennedy pivoted to running an anti-vaccine charity in recent years, and ran for president as an independent candidate in this election cycle. He dropped out to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rfk-jr-drops-out-presidential-race-2024-8">endorse Trump</a> in August, which some sources reported was a bid to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rfk-wanted-white-house-job-exchange-for-endorsing-trump-report-2024-7">secure a position</a> in the administration.In his role as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-rfk-jr-plans-to-make-america-healthy-again-2024-11">health secretary</a>, Kennedy will have a top role in health policy in the US, but likely won't be able to actually control which vaccines children are required to get for school. That will remain up to individual states, but he could change vaccine requirements for federal employees or the US military.That's if the Senate confirms his appointment, which some have said could be a close vote considering mixed reactions among policymakers so far.Kennedy has also promoted removing fluoride from water supplies and overhauling federal food regulations, and has supported products like raw milk, which the Food and Drug Administration warns against.He's also floated hopes to cut highly processed food from school lunches, which was a priority under the Obama administration.

You Searched For "stocks news" and got 5 results

The Fed is following its 1995 playbook — and that's great news for stocks and the economy

Jennifer Sor

The world population is growing older. That's bad news for the stock market.

Kelly Cloonan

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

Jennifer Sor

Stock market news: US stocks slide and bond yields rise as traders eye new economic data

Jennifer Sor

Health stocks are tumbling after Trump's appointment of vaccine skeptic RFK Jr.

Kelly Cloonan

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