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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The global population is getting older. </li><li>The trend will lead to lower returns, earnings growth, and valuations, JPMorgan strategists say.</li></ul>The aging of the world population is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, which will likely produce bad outcomes for the stock market, JPMorgan strategists say.The strategists say that historically, an older population has led to declining returns, lower earnings growth, and weaker valuations.Over a 10-year period, a 1% increase in the number of people over 65 is correlated with a 0.92% decline in annual stock returns, the strategists calculated in a report released last week.They point mainly to slower growth and falling valuations.With an older investor base looking to save for retirement, investment capital declines, leading to less innovation. That, plus slower growth in the workforce, will have a negative impact on earnings growth, the strategists say."Domestic population aging may reduce earnings growth for several reasons. It leads to slower workforce growth, reducing domestic economic growth. There is also evidence that aging can reduce innovation and productivity growth," the strategists said.That's especially true for companies that derive revenue from international operations, the strategists say."For companies that derive more of their revenue from abroad, like multinationals, global population aging (in a GDP-weighted sense) is likely to be more consequential for earnings growth than local population aging," the strategists wrote.That means equity market indexes with small and mid-caps will likely see more impact from local population aging than those with exclusively large caps.Valuations will also take a hit, the strategists said. As the elderly empty their retirement funds, national savings decline, thus raising bond yields. Older populations also pull out of the market at higher rates, driving down stock prices.Those trends, plus lower earnings growth expectations, justify lower valuations, the strategists say.The strategists say there's one bright spot, though. That's healthcare, which older populations tend to spend more on."We find a clear positive relationship between aging and excess returns on the sector, driven entirely by faster earnings growth," the strategists said.A 1% increase in the population share of those over 65 will lead to a 0.85% increase in health care returns over a 10-year period, the strategists say.The strategists note, too, that the populating aging trend won't impact countries equally. In China, the elderly share of the population is set to increase by seven percentage points in the next decade. The US, meanwhile, will see a more moderate rise from 18.1% to 21.5%.Past reports have also warned of the aging population's impact on the economy.Earlier this year, Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said boomers, a historically large generation, are approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-gen-z-millennials-economy-housing-job-market-stocks-2024-2">"peak burden" on the US economy</a> in the next few years. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-economy-outlook-us-stock-market-ownership-old-americans-retirement-2024-1">a larger share of people over 55% owning stocks</a> in the US may be a downside risk to the market, as older investors often don't have the luxury of holding through a downturn and could exacerbate volatility by selling during market pullbacks.

The world population is growing older. That's bad news for the stock market.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders took inflation data and the outlook for rates.</li><li>Inflation rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, in-line with expectations.</li></ul>The latest inflation data dented some of the momentum of the post-election stock rally, with traders focusing on the latest consumer price index reading at its implications for rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up slightly, while the S&amp;P 500 ended the day nearly flat. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield up one basis point to 4.449%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">Inflation was slightly higher</a> year-over-year in October compared to the prior month, but was on par with economists' expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on an annual basis, higher than last month's 2.4% increase.Investors solidified bets on another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Markets see an 82% chance that the central bank will trim interest rates another quarter-point next month, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Traders are less certain about another rate cut in January. The odds of another 25 basis point cut at the Fed's January meeting have dropped to 29%, down from 69% a month ago."Inflation data mostly support another rate cut at the Fed's December decision," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will wait until they have more clarity about the timing and scope of policy changes from the next President and Congress before reacting to them.""The Fed wants to avoid the mistakes of the past by prematurely easing and risking a second wave of inflation, so we'd expect the FOMC to take this risk seriously," Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy &amp; research at Glenmede, said in a note. "This doesn't take a rate cut off the table for December, but it's certainly not a slam dunk."The rally fueled by Trump's election began to stumble, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edging slightly into the red.Crypto markets, though, continued to get a boost after Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, was appointed as co-head of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dogecoin-price-elon-musk-doge-department-trump-crypto-president-election-2024-11?_gl=1*j5rjww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUyNDI1NS41NTYuMS4xNzMxNTI0MjY2LjQ5LjAuMA..">Department of Government Efficiency</a>, or "DOGE." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/doge-usd">Dogecoin</a> spiked another 15% on the news, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">bitcoin</a> rose as much as 6% before paring its gains, surpassing the $90,000 threshold for the first time ever before dipping back below to about $88,000 later in the day. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,985.38, up 0.02%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,958.19, up 0.11% (+47.21 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,230.74, down 0.26%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's what people are betting in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-jake-paul-mike-tyson-bitcoin-trump-2024-11?_gl=1*4l4ww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxNTY1NS41NTUuMS4xNzMxNTE4NTU0LjU2LjAuMA..">prediction markets</a> now that the election is over.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-upside-blackwell-rubin-apple-iphone-moment-2024-11">Nvidia is approaching its iPhone moment</a> with its Blackwell chip, and the stock could soar another 25%, an analyst said. </li><li>Trump could push <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">US debt to levels</a> that can't be ignored within his first year in office, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.09% to $68.08 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.46% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.87% to $2,575.98 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up one basis point to 4.449%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slipped to $88,615.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes.</li><li>The release will offer more insight into what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy and inflation.</li></ul>US stocks were mixed early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which should give further guidance on the path of interest rates for the rest of the year. All three benchmark indexes traded slightly in the red, while bond yields were up slightly. Investors will be parsing through the Fed's latest meeting minutes later on Wednesday, which will give more insight into what central bankers are thinking about the economy and the trajectory of rate cuts this year and beyond. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year."The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating," Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. But expectations about the pace of easing may be set by the minutes."According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut."Even so, we still think the FOMC is putting undue emphasis on the current strength of the economy rather than the direction of travel and the lagged impact of earlier tightening still in the pipeline," economists at the research firm said in a note. "We expect a 25bp easing in November but think a soft run of jobs and activity data in Q4 and Q1 will soon have the Fed scrambling to avoid falling behind the curve."Central bankers will assess another jobs report and the September Consumer Price Index, which will be published Thursday morning, before making their next rate move. The inflation report will be a high-stakes data point for the Fed after the big September payroll report, with markets anxious that officials may have to turn their attention back to prices after pivoting to the labor market at their last meeting. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will issue a quarter-point cut, while odds of another jumbo-sized cut have been slashed completely, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Google parent Alphabet fell 1% in early trading as the US Department of Justice <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1052.0_1.pdf">indicated it could break up the tech giant</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,752.93, up 0.06% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,194.38, up 0.27% (+114 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,150.47, down 0.18%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">The economy is facing a "no-landing" scenario</a> that could take away some relief from higher interest rates.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">Fed rate cuts were expected to push mortgage rates lower</a>, but the opposite has happened.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">The bar for corporate earnings is low</a>. That's good news for stocks, as long as companies are feeling upbeat about rate cuts, according to Bank of America.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 2% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was fell 2% to $75.63 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.39% to $2,612.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was about flat at 4.041%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower 0.8% to trade at $61,930.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes slipped on Wednesday led by a sell-off in chip stocks.</li><li>Alphabet rose after delivering a big earnings beat.</li></ul>US stock ended lower on Wednesday as encouraging tech earnings were eclipsed by a sell-off among semiconductor shares. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/goog-stock">Alphabet's</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10#:~:text=Revenue%20from%20Google%20Cloud%20grew,%25%20in%20after%2Dhours%20trading.&amp;text=Alphabet%20and%20Google%20CEO%20Sundar,investments%20were%20%22paying%20off.%22">big earnings beat</a> helped send its stock up almost 3% in the session, but major indexes fell as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-amd-smci-super-micro-stock-auditor-earnings-report-guidance-2024-10?_gl=1*1ys7uu1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE4MDQ4LjYwLjAuMA..">chipmakers suffered losses.</a>AMD and Super Micro Computer led the rout. The former fell on weak fourth-quarter guidance, while Super Micro plummeted on news that its auditor resigned due to company concerns. AMD dropped almost 11%, while SMCI plunged 33%. However, investors have more big tech earnings to look forward to.Shares of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Microsoft</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Meta</a> traded higher as traders anticipated their <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">financial results</a> on after the closing bell. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Amazon</a> are on deck to report after the close on Thursday.Macroeconomic data released on Wednesday highlighted ongoing strength in the US economy, diluting concern that interest rates might need to drop quickly to propel growth.Third-quarter US real GDP came in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-economy-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">at an annualized rate of 2.8%</a>, driven by a strong consumer. PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, reached 2.2% — close to the central bank's target rate of 2%."This is excellent on the GDP, particularly when you look at the consumer spending," economist Claudia Sahm told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-30/gdp-report-not-one-to-be-afraid-of-economist-claudia-sahm">Bloomberg TV</a>. "It's not just one quarter: we have now put together four quarters that are about three percent growth in consumer spending, inflation-adjusted. "The labor market also appears strong, as ADP hiring rose by its fastest rate in over a year. The data potentially sets the stage for another big nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which will help inform the Fed's next move at its November 6-7 policy meeting. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,813.67, down 0.33% <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,141.54, down 0.22% (-91.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,607.93, down 0.56% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-us-vs-canada-david-rosenberg-bull-rally-2024-10?_gl=1*w92gmg*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE1OTIyLjU5LjAuMA..">Top economist David Rosenberg says Canadian stocks look poised to outperform the S&amp;P 500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-undervalued-9-trillion-ai-spend-masayoshi-son-softbank-2024-10?_gl=1*15nw6jj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE2MDk0LjQ0LjAuMA..">Nvidia is undervalued as $9 trillion is still needed for superintelligent AI,</a> SoftBank's CEO said.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-manufacturing-production-boom-economy-made-in-america-trade-war-2024-10">US industrial re-shoring could be a $10 trillion economic opportunity,</a> according to Morgan Stanley.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil jumped 2.38% to $68.81 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 2.31% at $72.76 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> inched up 0.59% to $2,797.6 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield stayed essentially flat at 4.282%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> eased by 1.43% to $71,786.57</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes slide as chipmaker rout drags tech ahead of key earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The September jobs report exceeds expectations, adding 254,000 jobs and boosting investor confidence.</li><li>But Jon Wolfenbarger says trends still point to a recession ahead.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">September jobs report</a> gave investors renewed hope that the labor market continues to withstand the interest-rate hikes instituted by the Federal Reserve over the last couple of years.The 254,000 jobs added, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, well topped economists' expectations of 147,000.But Jon Wolfenbarger, the founder of investing newsletter <a target="_blank" href="http://BullAndBearProfits.com">BullAndBearProfits.com</a>, still sees a negative trend prevailing in the job market — and said in a recent note that the September report even showed cause for concern despite the strong headline number.That cause for concern lies in the number of government jobs added — 30,000 in September and around 500,000 over the last year. The sector has added the second-highest amount of new positions behind the private education and health services sector. This continues a trend of a growing ratio of government jobs to private jobs.Wolfenbarger, a former investment banker at JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch, pointed out that this ratio tends to increase in recessionary environments and said it's "not a sign of a healthy jobs market."<div type="image" title="all employees/government employees" height="482" width="1145" msid="114169736" hostid="261" sizebytes="20222"></div>Wolfenbarger is also concerned about other recent job data. He said the share of consumers in a survey from The Conference Board who say a job is hard to find is near 20% now, which could be bad news for an unemployment rate that has already risen significantly in recent months.<div type="image" title="labor market differential" height="479" width="714" msid="114169746" hostid="261" sizebytes="28814"></div>Job openings, new hires, and quits data also show a broadly slowing labor market. Quits fall when employees lack confidence in finding a new job, and new hires and job openings data backs that reality up.<div type="image" title="jolts" height="410" width="971" msid="114169740" hostid="261" sizebytes="14430"></div><div type="image" title="quits and hires" height="410" width="970" msid="114169748" hostid="261" sizebytes="22002"></div>Finally, the number of full-time employees has dipped into negative territory year-over-year, which has tended to happen during recessions.<div type="image" title="employed full time" height="387" width="972" msid="114169734" hostid="261" sizebytes="14806"></div>All of this is unfolding as the S&amp;P 500 continues to soar, closing at an all-time high on Friday afternoon. Valuations are also elevated across the board. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued.<div type="image" title="stock valuations" height="344" width="706" msid="114169738" hostid="261" sizebytes="31634"></div>Given valuation levels, Wolfenbarger said that a recession would threaten to throw the market into a downward spiral."The valuation metric in this list that most accurately forecasts long-term (10-12 year) returns is the S&amp;P 500 Market Cap to GDP ratio," he wrote in the September 16 note. "It is currently 147% above its historical average since 1964. That means the S&amp;P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. If it fell below the average, the decline would be even worse."Wolfenbarger confirmed in an email on Friday that this still accurately reflects his views.<h2 id="53f4fe3f-7dc0-4077-b072-3b727fb1af75">Wolfenbarger's views in context</h2>Recent labor market weakening has put some economists and strategists on higher alert. But generally, a soft-landing consensus prevails on Wall Street, particularly after September's payrolls report.Markets now expect the Fed to take a more cautious approach to cutting rates so as not to flare up inflation again, whereas growing recession worries had investors cheering on a 50-basis-point cut in the weeks leading up to the Fed's September meeting.But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, said in a note this week that 75% of initial headline jobs additions have been revised down in the last year. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.As for Wolfenbarger's stock-market views, the S&amp;P 500 has not seen such an aggressive decline since the Great Recession — one of the worst downturns in history. And many economists say that a potential recession would be shallow, putting Wolfenbarger's views on the margin versus Wall Street consensus.But in a market where investors have been eager to snap up gains from AI stocks like Nvidia, a sudden reversal in sentiment driven by poor economic data could prove painful for investors, even if not to the degree Wolfenbarger expects.

A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes rallied Thursday as investors continue to digest Wednesday's jumbo rate cut from the Fed.</li><li>The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in its first rate cut in over four years.</li></ul>US stocks soared on Thursday in a late reaction to the Federal Reserve's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9?_gl=1*1eo5ti1*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjc0OTAzMi4xNTguMS4xNzI2NzUwMTU5LjUzLjAuMA..">jumbo interest rate cut</a>. On Wednesday, the Fed issued its first interest rate cut since 2020, cutting its benchmark rate by 50 basis points. Directly after the announcement, major indexes <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/interest-rates-today-fed-meeting-cut-stock-market-powell-economy-2024-9">surged </a>before paring those gains during Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.Now, it seems investors are reacting positively to the news, with major indexes up across the board. The Dow climbed 500 points shortly after the opening bell, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.4% and the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.5% to hit fresh record highs. Official' projections show the central bank will cut another 50 basis points this year and 100 basis points in 2025, though some see steeper cuts ahead still. Bank of America analysts said after the meeting that they see 75 basis points of cuts in the fourth quarter and 125 basis points next year. "The greater urgency suggested by today's 50bp cut and the acceleration in the pace of cuts that most participants projected for 2025 makes a longer series of consecutive cuts the most likely path, in our view," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Wednesday note.In his press conference, Powell noted that the Fed sees the economy as being in a good place and unemployment is still relatively low despite a slow but steady rise in 2024. He said the central bank sees the jobless rate climbing to 4.4% by the end of the year, from last month's 4.2%&gt; Weekly jobless claims data on Thursday reinforced the Fed's message of a strong labor market. Claims from last week ticked down 12,000 to 219,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.That fall marks the biggest change in jobless claims in over a month."The labor market is actually in solid condition. And our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there," Powell said in his remarks following the FOMC meeting. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,705.47, up 1.55% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,965.94, up 1.12% (+462.84 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,994.09, up 2.4% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li>A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/feds-rate-cut-dissent-governor-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-split-2024-9">lone dissenting vote</a> on the Fed's rate cut marks the first split by a central bank governor in two decades.</li><li>The SEC wants to make trading stocks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sec-stock-pricing-half-penny-cent-vote-regulation-transaction-costs-2024-9?_gl=1*imuuhl*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjc0OTAzMi4xNTguMS4xNzI2NzUwNDYzLjQxLjAuMA..">cheaper for the average investor</a>.</li><li>Gen Z's love of discount stores could send these three retail stocks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gen-z-discount-stores-tjmaxx-burlington-stocks-bank-of-america-2024-9">soaring as much as 18%</a>, Bank of America says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures rose. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a> increased 1% to $71.65 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was up 1% to $74.42 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was up almost 1% to $2,566 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 3.747%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.31% to $57,745.72</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow surges 462 points as stocks rally after jumbo Fed rate cut

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! Mondays are probably the best day to start eating healthier. (Can't start a diet on a Friday.) And whatever your goals are, protein will play a key role. A nutrition coach breaks down <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/easy-calculate-how-much-protein-coach-olympians-2024-9">how to figure out how much you need</a>.In today's big story, the stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">So now what</a>?What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Jamie Dimon's retirement <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">doesn't mean his exit from JPMorgan</a>.</li><li>Tech: Roblox investors are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">shrugging off a short-seller's report</a>.</li><li>Business: It's the first day of work for Nike's new CEO. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">Here's what's at stake</a>.</li></ul>But first, time flies when you're making money.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Bullish on the bull market</h2><div type="image" title="Wall Street bull statue" height="4024" width="6048" msid="114217361" hostid="261" sizebytes="1697474"></div>Happy belated birthday to the stock market's bull rally!In case you missed it, Saturday marked two years since stocks bottomed out before going on a run. The Nasdaq 100 (88%), S&amp;P 500 (62%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (46%) have posted strong returns in the two years since.But don't worry about missing the celebration, because the party might be going on for a while. Stock market experts who spoke with Business Insider's Matthew Fox <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">don't see things slowing down anytime soon</a>.In fact, the average bull market lasts longer than five years, so we might not even be halfway to the finish line. There's no consensus on exactly how the next few years will shape up, but the experts agree they don't see a market downturn in the near future.Earnings season, which is in full swing this week, will provide more color on where things are headed. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10">Expectations are high</a>, and for good reason. The S&amp;P 500 has enjoyed year-over-year earnings growth for four consecutive quarters.<div type="image" title="inflation dollar hovers over groceries" height="893" width="1786" msid="114217363" hostid="261" sizebytes="43390"></div>So, what's the case for the bull rally to continue?Past performance does not guarantee future results, so bull runs' history of sticking around doesn't mean this one will.But the first thing to consider is this bull market's resiliency.The past two years have seen multiple banks fail, a bond-market meltdown, and the unwinding of a trade tied to the Japanese yen that sent stocks tumbling. Interest rates also remained elevated as the economy battled high inflation.Beyond the financial markets, things haven't been much calmer. The war in Ukraine rages on, and there's arguably more violence in the Middle East than there has been in decades.Meanwhile, the run-up to the presidential election has been unprecedented. The sitting president shockingly ended his reelection campaign, and another candidate faced multiple assassination attempts.So yes, we've been through a lot, and stocks keep going up and to the right.While I can't guarantee things will calm down, there are some bright spots. There might not be more rate cuts this year, but the job market is strong and inflation is (mostly) under control. Whether we're in a soft landing or a "no landing," both situations are better than a recession, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-recession-outlook-prediction-labor-market-job-additions-interest-rates-2024-10">which seems unlikely at this point</a>.The actual stock market is healthier, too, as it's no longer reliant on the Magnificent Seven's performance. Instead, it's enjoying growth across different sectors, which gives it more immunity from industry-specific shocks.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>SpaceX's Starship <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-starship-fifth-flight-test-how-to-watch-2024-10">completes historic 5th flight test</a>.</li><li>'Let chaos reign': <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-players-startups-ai-inference-driving-prices-down-cheap-workload-2024-10">AI computing costs are about to plummet</a>.</li><li>The professor made porn. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/professor-porn-fired-salacious-free-speech-academic-freedom-2024-10">His firing may shape the future of free speech</a>.</li><li>Elon Musk says <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-launches-california-coastal-commission-2024-10">he will take legal action</a> after California officials cited his politics when rejecting SpaceX launches.</li><li>How Saudi Arabia could create <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-supply-opec-cuts-2024-10">a crisis for Russia's economy</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Jamie Dimon" height="500" width="1000" msid="114217365" hostid="261" sizebytes="20910"></div><ol><li>You can't get rid of Jamie Dimon that easily. The JPMorgan CEO has hinted at plans to step down in the not-so-distant future. But during the bank's earnings call, he also said there is an "almost nil" chance of him joining the next presidential administration as he plans to stay at JPMorgan "for a long period." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">Here's how both things can be true</a>.</li><li>Ken Griffin knows who he's voting for, and he's not happy about it. The billionaire hedge fund manager and Republican megadonor hasn't supported either presidential candidate. The Citadel CEO said he knows who he is voting for, but "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citadel-ken-griffin-election-taxes-florida-2024-10">it's not with a smile on my face</a>."</li><li>BlackRock wants to make alt investments not so alternative. The $11.5 trillion asset manager <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrocks-next-big-bet-private-markets-2024-10">hopes to grow its private markets business</a>, which includes less liquid, more expensive investments with the potential for higher returns. It comes after securing $221 billion in net inflows last quarter, a company record.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Augustus Doricko sits in a desk with a huge American flag on the back wall." height="3739" width="4985" msid="114217359" hostid="261" sizebytes="612242"></div><ol><li>The 24-year-old wunderkind trying to make water out of thin air. With his new company, cloud-seeding startup Rainmaker, <a target="_blank" href="http://businessinsider.com/rainmaker-augustus-doricko-cloud-seeding-el-segundo-2024-10">Augustus Doricko has launched a God-fearing, cigarette-loving tech hub</a> in El Segundo, California. "Respect to Zuck, but I certainly hope the next cohort of people that build great things do it in the real world," Doricko told BI.</li><li>Roblox took an L and bounced back. The gaming platform's stock tumbled after a prominent short-seller accused it of inflating user numbers and failing to protect children from predators. Investors appear undeterred; after the drop, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">Roblox's stock rebounded</a>, with Wall Street focused on its growth potential.</li><li>Twelve AI coding startups to watch. AI coding startups are having a moment as VCs look to invest in tools that automate the boring parts of coding and let developers focus on more creative tasks. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-code-startups-that-have-raised-the-most-vcs-a16z-2024-10">These 12 startups have attracted funding</a> from VCs like a16z and Menlo Ventures.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of expensive Erewhon groceries, receipt, shopping cart, and payment system" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114217368" hostid="261" sizebytes="117578"></div><ol><li>I've been a very brave Gen Zer. I'd like a treat. Inflation's got nothing on Gen Z's love of bougie snacks: Young people splurge on expensive groceries more than any other generation. The reason? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-loves-expensive-groceries-snacks-erewhon-whole-foods-2024-10">Consuming health-conscious food is a show of economic power</a> — and everything else is too expensive.</li><li>Office vacancy may deliver some housing relief. The office sector will experience a wave of distress in coming years, real estate experts told BI. That might be good news for housing supply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-office-outlook-fire-sales-apartment-conversions-housing-2024-10">as former offices get converted to apartments</a>.</li><li>It's Elliott Hill's first day as Nike's CEO. Can he just do it? Nike released its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report on October 1, and revenue declined 10% from the previous year to $11.6 billion. Now, it's up to Hill <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">to lead a full-scale comeback for the brand</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>How rich Americans can save on taxes by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/upstream-planning-transfers-capital-gains-tax-stock-real-estate-2024-10">giving stock and real estate to their parents</a>.</li><li>Tesla investors don't seem to trust Elon Musk like they used to. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-twitter-wall-street-disappointment-self-driving-taxi-2024-10">Is that because of Twitter</a>?</li><li>Here's how natural disasters are shaping the buy-versus-rent decision <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-natural-disasters-buy-rent-florida-climate-change-risks-2024-10">in vulnerable states like Florida</a>.</li><li>Warren Buffett's company website looks like a relic from the 1990s — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-website-homepage-culture-values-billionaires-links-2024-10">but that's on purpose</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>It's Columbus Day in the US. In some states, like New York, it's a day to celebrate Italian American culture and history.</li><li>It's also Indigenous People's Day, which some states recognize instead of, or in addition to, Columbus Day. Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia mark this holiday.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

You Searched For "stock market news" and got 7 results

The world population is growing older. That's bad news for the stock market.

Kelly Cloonan

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

Jennifer Sor

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

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Stock market today: Indexes slide as chipmaker rout drags tech ahead of key earnings

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A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines

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Stock market today: Dow surges 462 points as stocks rally after jumbo Fed rate cut

Kelly Cloonan

The stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. So now what?

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