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<keyword id="19955368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="budget-2024" source="keywords">Budget 2024</keyword>, which is set to be presented on July 22nd, is set to accelerate the growth of <keyword id="20459350" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-stock-markets" source="keywords">Indian stock markets</keyword> by as much as 20%, a recent survey by <keyword id="19897999" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bloomberg" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bloomberg" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bloomberg">Bloomberg</keyword> noted. While some respondents hope that the <keyword id="20983733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-Nifty50" source="keywords">NSE Nifty50</keyword>, which is currently trading at 24,273.35 points, might reach 26,000 points by the end of this year, others estimate the index to inch up even higher. The budget is likely to boost consumer spending, accelerate consumption, and support infrastructure development, noted half of the 24 experts Bloomberg surveyed. Data by Bloomberg Intelligence predicted that the estimated earnings per share (EPS) of companies on the MSCI India Index is set to rise by 15.6% on year basis, for the calendar year 2024. In contrast, Chinese firms are expected to grow at about 10%. One-fourth of surveyed analysts noted that pushing capital expenditure would be the government's top priority, while the other half thought the focus would be on boosting consumer demand. Naturally, analysts see potential growth in consumer discretionary stocks in the months to come, followed by financial services. <h2>Focus on Women, Capex</h2>Many are expecting the government to raise the standard deduction threshold from the current Rs 50,000 to Rs 1,00,000. The government is also thinking of raising the limits of the <keyword id="19930663" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Public-Provident-Fund" source="keywords">Public Provident Fund</keyword> (PPF) from Rs 15,000 to Rs 25,000. As per Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, "the budget is expected to be tilted towards adopting a strategy for the underprivileged, youth, farmers, and women. The budget is expected to reflect the government’s tried and tested formula of ‘guarantees’ by opting for income transfer policies and spending more on welfare schemes in government campaigns in India. Allocations for existing schemes such as 'Housing for All’, MGNREGA, and health insurance for these sections of society are likely to increase while new schemes may be introduced". According to Badal Yagnik, CEO of Colliers India, the real estate segment is optimistic regarding this budget: "Housing, infrastructure development, sustainability, and digitization will remain at the core of the budget, which will go a long way in supporting real estate growth across segments in the long term. EV infrastructure, renewable energy, and green financing will continue to remain in focus, creating a strong base for a sustainable future. Incentivization of green buildings through minimum alternate tax or tax breaks similar to the infrastructure sector will be particularly beneficial. Meanwhile, retail investors are calling for additional rationalizing of the capital gains tax structure. The Union Budget 2024–25 should explore initiatives to boost greater retail engagement in REITs and InvITs". Anooshka Soham Bathwal, founder of Dhanvesttor, a financial management platform, expects that the government's focus is likely to keep driving the increased participation of women in the workforce in the upcoming full budget, where it can attain the same by incentivising higher education for women. "To promote entrepreneurship, the government can introduce special benefits for the businesses started by women. Further steps towards a stable policy environment and ease of doing business are also desirable. Incentives on tax, funding, and growth for women-centric organizations can help to further attain the inclusive growth objective of government". Bathwal also emphasized that the budget should promote entrepreneurs and the country's startup system. "Entrepreneurs are advocating for additional tax breaks for investors and promoters to attract more domestic capital. As India progresses towards becoming a global hub for entrepreneurship and innovation, fostering both technological and process innovations is crucial. Significant improvements in ongoing training and skill upgrades are vital, particularly given the rapid growth in Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets. Additionally, the government needs to address the credit challenges faced by SMEs", she continued Also read <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/budget-2024-heres-what-indias-elderlies-want/articleshow/111486023.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Budget 2024: FM might delight India's senior citizens this time around</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/union-budget-2024-25-when-will-it-be-presented-what-to-expect-and-more/articleshow/111014203.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Union budget 2024-25 : When will it be presented, what to expect and more</a>

Budget 2024 to fuel stock markets: Bloomberg Survey

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's second term won't be the rocket fuel for stocks some expect, Capital Economics said on Friday.</li><li>However, AI enthusiasm will drive the S&amp;P 500 to reach 7,000 at the end of 2025, the firm said. </li></ul>Donald Trump's policies could disappoint the stock market, but that won't stop another key catalyst from helping the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> soar to new highs, Capital Economics said.While investors seem <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-trump-win-election-stock-market-outlook-strategy-2024-11">convinced that Trump offers the best outcome for stocks</a>, the research firm pushed back on this idea. Bullish momentum should still drive indexes sky-high next year, but that will only reflect ceaseless enthusiasm for artificial intelligence rather than a boost from new policies. By the firm's estimates, the S&amp;P will surge to around 7,000 by the end of next year, indicating about 15% upside from current levels."However, this has nothing to do with the policies we expect will be delivered," Capital Economics said. "In fact, we think these will be negative for equities, as Trump's second term proves to be neither 'pro-growth' nor 'pro-business.'"While the market's post-election <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11?_gl=1*ij6jpn*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTMyODYwMC44MTUuMS4xNzMxMzI5ODI5LjI3LjAuMA..">reaction was euphoric</a>, Capital Economics suggested that investors look more closely at Trump's plans, their likelihood of becoming reality, and the potential impact on the economy. On the one hand, Trump may be unable to deliver on promised tax cuts even with a Republican Congress."The bottom line is that without a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, Trump would be forced to rely on the convoluted budget reconciliation process. A likely single-digit majority in the House will complicate the process," Capital Economics wrote in a separate note on Friday.Additionally, Republican legislators may fear negative bond market reactions if tax cuts are pursued, as traders have grown increasingly concerned about rising US debt. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped sharply after Trump's victory as the market priced in higher interest rates, higher government spending, and higher inflation under Trump. There's also room to doubt Trump's push for deregulation, a promise that has helped drive financial stocks higher. Capital Economics said that Trump had made the same claims of massive deregulation in 2016, with little long-term impact on the market. Finally, the research firm said it considers Trump's tariff and immigration policy to be net negatives for the economy. Though it remains to be seen if the President-elect will stick to his promise for a 10%-20% universal tariff on all imports to the US, this is enough to weigh on company profit and prospects, the note said.In that case, rather than pinning hopes on policy to drive gains, Capital Economics said that AI should continue to bring fresh upside."Instead, our bullish forecast for equities rests on our view that AI-enthusiasm will grow further and outweigh any headwind from Trump's policies," the firm wrote."That said, the S&amp;P 500 reaching 7,000 due to AI-hype would in our view mean that a bubble has formed in the US and indeed reached the point where it bursts."

Trump won't be as positive for stocks as people think, but AI will keep the market soaring, research firm says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Emerging markets stocks are set for their worst monthly decline since January. </li><li>The slump comes as investors price in higher odds of a Trump win in the upcoming US election.</li></ul>It's been a tough month for emerging market stocks as the odds of a Donald Trump election win rise — and with it, the odds that his proposed tariff plan will actually see the light of day. Emerging market stocks are headed for their worst monthly decline since January, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling for a fourth day on Thursday for a 3.1% decline this month.A select few EM stocks have taken the biggest hits, with Samsung, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan accounting for more than half of the index's fall. The decline comes as the market prices in higher odds of a win for former President Donald Trump with just two weeks until the election.On crypto betting market Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning soared as high as to 66% on Tuesday, their highest since President Joe Biden was still in the race in July. Odds are now slightly lower at 62%.Polls, meanwhile, are much closer, with the most recent national polling average compiled by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris">RealClearPolitics</a> showing Harris at 48.7% versus 48.5% for Trump.Trump has proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to as high as 20% and has said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2">subject to a 60% tariff</a>.Investors' fears of a damaging trade war aren't unfounded. In 2018, Trump's trade war with China led to a significant underperformance compared to US stocks, and strategists say the election's outcome is again pushing investors away from EM shares as uncertainty builds. "US elections have become a key driver of uncertainty as risk positioning is clearly fluctuating to a more cautious stance. In our recent client interactions, we have sensed global EM investors' appetite to increase risk budgets over the next weeks may have been significantly reduced," analysts from Citi wrote in a note last week.The strategists note that the latest sentiment is a sharp contrast from a month ago, when investors were pricing in higher odds of a Harris win."There has been a significant change in investor sentiment, and investors' risk budgets have likely been changing as a function of that."Other factors, like rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a bond market sell-off, are also driving investors away from riskier assets. Investors are also expressing disappointment in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">China's stimulus measures</a>, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">initially fueled a rally</a> in EM stocks last month.

Prospects of a Trump win and huge tariffs spark worst sell-off for emerging market stocks in 10 months

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Budget 2024 to fuel stock markets: Bloomberg Survey

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Trump won't be as positive for stocks as people think, but AI will keep the market soaring, research firm says

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Prospects of a Trump win and huge tariffs spark worst sell-off for emerging market stocks in 10 months

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