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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Gen X and younger voters shifted right in recent polls, favoring Trump more than they did in 2020.</li><li>Economic concerns and social media strategies influenced Gen Z's political shift.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-react-donald-trump-winning-election-silicon-valley-2024-11">2024 election</a> saw some big shifts in how the generations voted, early exit poll data suggested.Democrats lost a lot of ground with Gen Z, while Republicans won Gen X by a much wider margin than in 2020. Meanwhile, millennials had a much smaller rightward shift, and boomers were actually more likely to vote Democratic than four years ago.The results challenge some long-held stereotypes about generations' political positions. For example, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-and-gen-z-will-bring-down-the-gop-2021-7">presumed progressive Gen Zers</a> showed more <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-changes-political-divides-2019-7">conservative leanings</a> this election than the last, and aging boomers <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/there-are-two-americas-and-age-divider">shirked the notion</a> that they're growing more conservative with age.To be sure, early exit poll data has a wide margin of error. As more votes are counted in the coming days and months, more precise data on the shape of the 2024 electorate will be released.The youngest voters and those entering middle age tacked hard to the right. Gen X — which slightly favored president-elect Donald Trump with a one-point margin in 2020 — shifted 9 points toward Trump this cycle. Gen Z favored Vice President Kamala Harris by 11 points, compared to 24 points for President Joe Biden.Meanwhile, millennials and their boomer parents were less likely to move toward Trump. Millennials favored Harris by one point, a five-point shift down from Biden's six-point margin in 2020. Boomers went from supporting Trump by five points in 2020 to a flat tie between the two candidates this year, and were the only age group that voted more Democratic.Gen Z's big shift to the right wasn't entirely unexpected. Teens were twice as likely to identify as more conservative than their parents compared to millennials 20 years ago, per a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theupandup.us/p/gen-z-teens-conservative-shift-gallup-data">Gallup and Walton Family Foundation</a> study conducted last fall.The Trump campaign put a lot of focus on this age group. Andrew Heyward, a former president of CBS News, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/business/media/trump-media-strategy-podcasts.html">The New York Times</a> that Trump has become a "master of evolving media" for partnering with online influencers and personalities. Trump frequently appeared on podcasts, streams, and TikToks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://business.yougov.com/content/47483-whos-listening-to-the-joe-rogan-experience-men-mostly">consumed predominantly</a> by Gen Z and millennial audiences, including The Joe Rogan Experience.That strategy may have convinced younger voters that the GOP gets them better than the Democrats. "People don't really vote for what they want, they vote for who they are," Jason Brennan, a professor of strategy, public policy, and economics at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business, told BI."I think a lot of young men look at the messaging of Democrats and are turned off by it," Brennan said, and it could at least partially explain the generational shifts.Gen Z's Gen X-er parents — or at least some of them — are also tilting right, as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/typical-gen-x-debt-net-worth-income-earnings-caregiving-stress-2021-8">forgotten middle child</a> of generations dramatically shifted toward Trump.Gen X already disapproved of Biden the most among generations, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/27/1217878506/gen-x-conservative-disapprove-biden">late 2023 polling from NPR, PBS NewsHour, and Marist</a>.Their role stuck between caring for children and aging parents <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-gen-x-sandwich-generation-tasked-with-parents-kids-care-2022-4">has them</a> in an especially precarious economic spot. They're the generation <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-x-age-income-debt-forgotten-middle-child-struggling-financially-2023-12">most likely</a> to say that they don't feel financially secure. Many are concerned about saving for retirement, while some continue to be stressed out about homebuying. Some long for the success of their boomer and silent generation parents, Amy Walter, a nonpartisan political analyst with The Cook Political Report, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/27/1217878506/gen-x-conservative-disapprove-biden">told NPR</a>.Meanwhile, boomers are a bit more of a puzzle, according to Brennan. Their shift might come down to a dark demographic reality— male boomers are more likely to die earlier than their female counterparts, and women tend to be more likely to vote Democratic than men. But, more broadly, the results could also be chalked to a lack of enthusiasm."What it takes to win is you have to get your base to come out, and then you have to get the swing voters to shift towards you," Brennan said.Are you a Gen Z who shifted right or a boomer who shifted left? Contact these reporters at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:jkaplan@businessinsider.com">jkaplan@businessinsider.com</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:nsheidlower@businessinsider.com">nsheidlower@businessinsider.com</a>.

Forget swing states. Here's how the generations flipped on Election Day.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has won Pennsylvania.</li><li>With 19 electoral votes, the state was highly coveted by both Trump and Kamala Harris.</li></ul>Former President Donald Trump has won Pennsylvania, the pivotal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-are-2024-presidential-election-swing-states-trump-harris-polls-2024-11">swing state</a> that was the most coveted state on the electoral map this year.With this victory, called by Fox News, CNN, and NBC News early Wednesday, Trump has secured the state's 19 electoral votes. Most election forecasters ahead of the election considered Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state, or the one that would push the race in either candidate's favor. If history holds, the remaining "blue wall" states — Michigan and Wisconsin — may also go the same way. It's been almost 40 years since the Great Lakes battlegrounds haven't voted in unison.Trump's best path to the White House was based on his taking away at least one of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">blue-wall states</a>. He won all three in 2016 but watched them narrowly slip away four years later. In 2020, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pennsylvania-presidential-election-2020-live-vote-counts-results-2020">Trump lost Pennsylvania</a> by roughly 81,000 votes. Republicans were hopeful that Trump would fare better without President Joe Biden — who was born in Scranton and for 36 years served as a US senator from neighboring Delaware — on the ballot.The Keystone State's Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, was under consideration to become Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>' running mate. While he was not selected, Shapiro was one of Harris' top surrogates in the state.No part of Pennsylvania was untouched by this unique presidential race, which saw both major-party candidates pour considerable resources into the state.Elon Musk, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-gop-spending-130-million-2024-10">donated over $100 million</a> in favor of electing Trump, also campaigned in the state for the former president.

Trump wins Pennsylvania, the most important swing state in the 2024 election

How these 7 swing states could decide the 2024 US election 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hurricane Helene battered rural mountain towns in North Carolina, a key voting bloc for Trump.</li><li>Some analysts and candidates expect turnout to be lower in the region as people rebuild.</li></ul>Three weeks after Hurricane Helene ravaged western North Carolina, hundreds of roads and bridges <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncdot.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/2024/2024-10-14-ncdot-hurricane-helene-recovery.aspx">remain damaged or closed</a> and tens of thousands of residents still don't have running water. Many are displaced after losing their homes and businesses, while others are still clearing out muck and debris.With many Helene survivors still in the thick of recovery, especially residents of rural mountain towns, political analysts and candidates told Business Insider they expect turnout to be lower in the state's western region. The <a target="_blank" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/">latest polls</a> show that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck, and North Carolina remains a critical battleground state for either candidate's victory."Voting is not the top priority for a whole lot of people right now," said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University. "Even among the most committed voters. If they don't have drinkable water, their priorities have shuffled. So I expect voter turnout to be down in the most-affected counties."Cooper said his home was largely spared by Helene, but some family members who live in Asheville temporarily relocated to South Carolina. That includes his dad, who had planned to vote early and in-person but now must request a mail-in ballot.Early voting began in North Carolina on October 17, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.ncsbe.gov/news/press-releases/2024/10/18/north-carolina-sets-turnout-record-first-day-early-voting">state election officials said in-person turnout topped a previous record set in 2020.</a> At the county level, state election officials told BI that comparing this year's numbers to 2020 wouldn't be accurate due to several caveats, including that the absentee-by-mail voting period started two weeks earlier in 2020 than it did this year.The rural mountain areas of North Carolina previously favored Trump. He won North Carolina by less than 75,000 votes in the 2020 presidential race, with strong support in areas outside urban centers. That included 11 of the 13 counties hardest-hit by Helene. The two exceptions were Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, and Watauga County.<div type="image" title="A man stands near a home with a Trump 2024 campaign sign as he coordinates relief in Lake Lure, North Carolina, on October 2, 2024 after Hurricane Helene." height="683" width="1024" msid="114380742" hostid="261" sizebytes="122340"></div>The Democrats aim to flip <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/north-carolina">historically red</a> North Carolina, seeing a path in the rapidly growing suburban areas like Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Fayetteville. Harris is trying to win over Black and college educated voters, as well as women who oppose the state's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.plannedparenthood.org/planned-parenthood-south-atlantic/patients/health-care-services/abortion-services/nc-abortion-faqs">restrictive abortion law</a>. But the aftermath of Helene has become a political lightning rod, with Trump attacking the Biden administration's response.<h2 id="b6b2ed09-6d41-465a-9740-c901aa87fc11">Officials say North Carolinians know the importance of voting</h2>The traditional ways to reach people, such as door knocking and social media, aren't as accessible because of the destruction and spotty internet service. This has made it difficult for campaign staff to canvas and combat rumors.Trump has spread disinformation, telling attendees at a campaign rally that Harris stole Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) disaster relief funding and spent it on housing for migrants. He also wrote on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113227266617485932">Truth Social</a> that the federal government and Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, were going out of their way to not assist Republican-leaning areas.The Biden administration and some GOP politicians have debunked the claims, including Rep. Chuck Edwards, a Republican who represents North Carolina's 11th district, which was devastated by Helene.Edwards told BI that he's been working around the clock to connect survivors with the resources they need. He <a target="_blank" href="https://edwards.house.gov/media/press-releases/debunking-helene-response-myths">issued a statement on October 8</a>, after being inundated with emails and calls from people upset about unfounded rumors."I was getting calls from people around the country who wanted to send personnel, equipment, and water, but worried it wouldn't make it to the right location because of the rumors," Edwards told BI. "Primarily, that FEMA was confiscating supplies and turning people away. There is absolutely no truth to that."Edwards added that even though folks are busy putting their lives back together, they understand that an important election is right around the corner. They are motivated to get out and vote for Trump, he said."They remember what our lives were like the day before the storm," Edwards said, pointing to inflation, oil prices, and a crisis at the Southern border.Edwards' competitor, Rep. Caleb Rudow, is a Democrat who represents Buncombe county in the state legislature. He's been canvassing and posting <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/CalebRudow/status/1846144971256057972">on social media</a>, talking about the importance of this election, particularly after Helene.Rudow said the state needs elected officials who want to solve the climate crisis, which is fueling more intense hurricanes. He also told BI that the relief work by state, local, and federal officials after Helene has shown the power of government in the wake of a disaster.Rudow added that people are resilient, and part of recovery is getting life back to normal. That includes talking about these issues and voting.Even so, people who've lost their homes and loved ones probably aren't thinking about voting, said Bob Phillips, executive director at Common Cause North Carolina, a voter rights group. But it's hard to predict how Helene will affect turnout.North Carolina election officials made emergency changes to expand voting access for residents recovering from the storm."Helene will be a part of this election, and we'll just have to see what the drop off is," Phillips said.Were you impacted by Hurricane Helene and want to share your voting story? Contact cboudreau@businessinsider.com.

Rural North Carolinians are key for Trump's election chances in the swing state. Hurricane Helene upended their lives.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Despite the Kremlin's neutral stance, Russian state media shows it favors Donald Trump.</li><li>State media has ridiculed Kamala Harris while portraying Trump in a positive light. </li></ul>The Kremlin has long maintained it doesn't care who will win the US presidential election on November 5th."Generally speaking, the outcome of this election makes no difference to us," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-lavrov-warns-dangerous-consequences-us-ukraine-1964468">Newsweek</a> earlier this month.But despite what Russian officials claim, the country's state media tells a very different story."Russia absolutely cares a great deal about who wins the US election," Ann Marie Dailey, a policy researcher at RAND, told Business Insider."Russia will seek to sway the election in a way that minimizes US support for Ukraine."<h2 id="e100d3ae-6870-4e15-9852-ebf704ef6b7d">State media coverage</h2>Per <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kremlin-says-trump-harris-should-leave-putins-name-out-us-political-battle-2024-09-11/">Reuters</a>, Harris' tendency to burst out laughing during interviews and debates has been ridiculed in Russian state TV broadcasts.Russian state TV has also played compilations of some of Harris' worst moments and made frequent sexist and racist comments about the presidential candidate."Kamala with the nuclear button is worse than a monkey with a grenade," Andrei Sidorov, the dean of the global politics department at Moscow State University, said on the Russian state-run Rossiya 1 channel, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-punching-bag-joe-biden-us-elections-2024-washington-kremlin-propaganda-moscow/">Politico</a>.By comparison, Russian state TV's main Channel One news program often portrays Trump and running mate, JD Vance, as confident and intelligent, Reuters said.The discrepancy between how broadcasters view the two candidates was particularly clear after last month's presidential debate, which was widely regarded as a clear win for Harris.However, Russian channels struggled to explain what had happened.According to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-pals-bamboozled-as-complete-fool-kamala-harris-creams-our-donald/">Daily Beast</a>, hosts and pundits on Russian state television said that Trump was somehow "sabotaged" or "disadvantaged."<h2 id="89aa4f78-1a2e-46d5-a896-c7d61cc86e37">Covert influence operations</h2>It's not just seemingly biased reporting. Last month, TikTok said it removed accounts associated with Russian state media for "engaging in covert influence operations."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta">Meta</a> also banned RT, Rossiya Segodnya, and other Russian state media networks from its platforms, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-russia-misinformation-ai-generated-news-stories-us-election-2024-8">claiming</a> the outlets had used deceptive tactics to carry out interference activity.In a statement to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gllnx0p40o">the BBC</a> at the time, RT said: "It's cute how there's a competition in the West — who can try to spank RT the hardest, in order to make themselves look better."Don't worry, where they close a door, and then a window, our 'partisans' (or in your parlance, guerrilla fighters) will find the cracks to crawl through — as by your own admission, we are apt at doing."In September, the Department of Justice said in an indictment that an unnamed Tenessee firm — later identified as conservative company Tenet Media —<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pro-trump-influencers-say-had-no-idea-russia-funding-videos-2024-9"> took almost $10 million from the Russian state media company RT.</a>The aim, according to the Department of Justice, was to "create and distribute content to US audiences with hidden Russian government messaging."Tenet Media published content from six influencers, all of whom publicly support former President Donald Trump. The influencers distanced themselves from the accusations and described themselves as being "victims."<h2 id="912b0f53-d5d1-4981-96d6-d368543c0822">Trump's influence</h2>"The Kremlin does absolutely care about this election the most," Mathieu Boulegue, a consulting fellow at Chatham House, told BI."They would much rather prefer a Trump presidency. They care so much about the elections that they're trying to rig and to play the elections by using propaganda, information warfare, and probably cyber activities."For Putin, a Trump presidency could help him achieve his goals in Ukraine. Trump has praised Putin for being <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-praised-smart-putin-us-stupid-country-2022-2">"smart" </a>and<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-justification-genius-savvy-2022-2"> "genius"</a> after he began his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.He has consistently backed a swift end to the war in Ukraine and has questioned why the US is helping Ukraine defend itself.The war has been costly for Russia. An unnamed US official <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-operations-ukraine-have-probably-cost-up-211-billion-us-official-2024-02-16/">told Reuters</a> in February that Russia's war in Ukraine has cost it up to $212 billion.A December 2023 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2421-1.html">RAND report</a> projected the direct costs of the war for Russia through 2024 to be $132 billion.Though Trump has offered few details on how the war could end, a peace plan suggested by Vance on a podcast <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4884798-the-trump-vance-plan-for-ukraine-is-insane/">in September indicates </a>that it'd involve Ukraine ceding the territory Russia holds and pledging neutrality.William Pomerantz, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, previously told BI that "Trump believes that he can end the war in Ukraine in a week, but that would require conceding to all of Putin's demands."The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request by BI for comment.

Russia claims it doesn't care who wins the US election. Its state media tells another story.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Four states are voting on minimum wage increases this Election Day.</li><li>The federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, but many states have higher rates.</li></ul>This Election Day, minimum wage workers in four states are waiting to learn if they'll get a raise.Though the federal minimum wage has remained at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/current-federal-minimum-wage-is-13-years-old-inflation-impact-2022-7">$7.25 since 2009</a>, many municipalities have moved to boost it. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/mw-consolidated">Department of Labor</a> said that 20 states either default to the federal minimum or have minimum wages that equal $7.25. Washington, DC, has the highest minimum wage at $17.50 an hour.Even with Democrats historically leading the charge for a higher federal minimum, it's a proposition that often gets bipartisan support: In 2020, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-vote-increase-in-minimum-wage-research-on-employment-2020-11">Florida voted</a> to reelect Donald Trump as president — and also voted to gradually bump the minimum wage to $15 per hour.Here's where the minimum wage stands across the country and where it might change.<h2 id="6e75099f-cfe4-4b65-a7a5-8e5720d6f000">Alaska</h2>This Election Day, Alaskans — who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_voting_trends_in_Alaska">historically lean red</a> — are voting on a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2027 and then peg it to inflation. The minimum wage in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-tracker/#/min_wage/Alaska">Alaska</a> rose to <a target="_blank" href="https://labor.alaska.gov/lss/rights.htm#:~:text=Effective%20January%201%2C%202024%2C%20Alaska,be%20taken%20by%20the%20employer.">$11.73</a> at the start of 2024, meaning the new measure would provide another boost.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.elections.alaska.gov/doc/oep/2024/Ballot%20Measure%201_Eng.pdf">Ballot Measure No. 1</a> would also mandate that employers offer paid sick leave, with smaller employers required to provide at least 40 hours and larger employers made to offer at least 56 hours. The Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.epi.org/publication/alaskas-minimum-wage/">estimates</a> that the hike would directly affect 16,000 workers in Alaska, and, in total, directly and indirectly affect 30,800 workers across the state.<h2 id="c3d5077e-9755-40fd-a579-1b5d7fe5cf85">California</h2>In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-california.html">blue stalwart</a> California, where the minimum wage rose to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/minimum_wage.htm">$16 an hour</a> at the start of 2024, voters are also weighing another boost. <a target="_blank" href="https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Proposition?number=32&amp;year=2024">Proposition 32</a>, if passed, would bring the minimum wage for all workers to $18 an hour by 2026 — and, for larger businesses, the minimum wage would reach $18 by 2025.<h2 id="7c303318-8587-471f-af80-19d4e065d7e1">Missouri</h2>Voters in Missouri, which has voted Republican over the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_voting_trends_in_Missouri">last two decades</a>, are weighing in on whether to boost their minimum wage after another gradual bump at the start of 2024. Missouri's minimum wage is $12.30 an hour. If <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/petitions/2024BallotMeasures">Proposition A passes</a>, the minimum wage in Missouri will rise to $15 by 2026.<h2 id="08514347-1876-4b28-9a74-9c95fa750c78">Massachusetts</h2>In Massachusetts — a historically "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wbur.org/news/2024/11/05/massachusetts-presidental-election-maps">deep blue</a>" state — voters are weighing in on a more niche aspect of the minimum wage: what tipped workers should receive.The minimum wage in Massachusetts is $15 an hour, and the tipped minimum wage is $6.75. When tips are included in their wages, tipped workers are meant to reach $15 an hour. Prominent progressives have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/equal-pay-day-end-tipped-wage-bernie-sanders-amy-schumer-2021-3">criticized the practice of the tipped wage</a>, pointing to findings that show women make up a larger share of the tipped wage force — and wage gaps are smaller for restaurant workers in states with one set minimum wage.If Massachusetts' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/publications/information-for-voters-24/quest_5.htm">question 5 passes</a>, the tipped wage would slowly increase to become level with the state minimum wage, reaching full parity by 2029.<h2 id="47e54b83-705d-4c9a-9155-8965d4824b21">Arizona</h2>Conversely, voters in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">the swing state of Arizona</a> are weighing whether to reduce the amount employers are obligated to pay tipped workers. As it stands, Arizona employers are able to pay tipped workers up to $3 less than the standing minimum wage — as long as workers' tips still bring them to the minimum wage.Under <a target="_blank" href="https://www.azleg.gov/alispdfs/Council/2024BallotMeasures/adopted%20analysis%20Proposition%20138%20SCR1040%20-%202024.pdf">Proposition 138</a>, employers would be able to pay their tipped workers up to 25% less than the state's minimum wage, which would put such workers at $10.77 an hour, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_Proposition_138,_Wages_for_Tipped_Workers_Amendment_(2024)">according to Ballotpedia</a>. That would only be allowed, the proposition said, if the employer can "establish that the employee is paid at least the minimum wage plus $2.00 per hour for all hours worked" after including tips.Are you a worker earning at or near the minimum wage in your state? Share your story with these reporters at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:jkaplan@businessinsider.com">jkaplan@businessinsider.com</a> or <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:mhoff@businessinsider.com">mhoff@businessinsider.com</a>.

Workers in 4 states are up for a raise. This map shows the minimum wage in every state.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Peter Thiel made a "contrarian" prediction that the election wouldn't be close.</li><li>He ended up being right, with Trump sweeping every swing state and overperforming in blue states.</li></ul>In September, conservative tech billionaire Peter Thiel made what he acknowledged was an unusual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-2024-election-cheating-trump-vance-harris2024-9">prediction</a> about the 2024 election."I think the odds are slightly in favor of Trump, but it's basically 50-50. My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close," Thiel said in September at an appearance at the All In Summit in Los Angeles. "You know, most presidential elections aren't."Thiel, a venture capitalist who co-founded PayPal and Palantir, said that "two-thirds of elections" aren't close, and that either Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> or former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> could handily defeat the other."I think either the Kamala bubble will burst, or you know, maybe the Trump voters get really demotivated and don't show up," Thiel said. "But I think one side is simply going to collapse in the next two months."Thiel's prediction came true. Trump easily <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">won the election</a> and is on track to sweep all seven swing states. He also put up <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-margins-democratic-states-harris-underperform-2024-11">strong performances</a> in some traditionally Democratic states and projected to win the popular vote, the first time a Republican has done so since 2004.Thiel's argument may have also been partially self-serving. At the time, he was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-peter-thiel-donald-trump-get-off-sidelines-2024-8">facing a call</a> to "get off the sidelines" from Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, a personal friend who Thiel <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-super-pac-jd-vance-ohio-fec-ruling-2024-5">spent millions</a> to elect in 2022.While Thiel said he was personally supportive of Trump this year, he had declined to spend any money on the 2024 elections, arguing that his financial contributions wouldn't make a difference at the presidential level."If it's not even close, I don't think it makes much of a difference," Thiel said in September.A spokesman for Thiel did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Thiel is known for being a contrarian who tends to make bets, via his business ventures and investments, that cut against the conventional wisdom.In his book "Zero to One" — which he wrote with his protege-turned-politician <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blake-masters-loses-arizona-primary-abe-hamadeh-jd-vance-2024-7">Blake Masters</a> — Thiel advises entrepreneurs to focus on building companies that do things that others aren't doing, rather than spending energy trying to compete with existing companies.His right-wing political views have also long been an outlier for his Silicon Valley milieu, though that may be increasingly less than case, with other tech figures like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">Elon Musk</a> coming around to Trump.

Peter Thiel was right about the 2024 election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are moving on early US election results that favor Donald Trump.</li><li>US Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, with futures and cryptocurrencies also gaining.</li></ul>Markets are turning to the Trump trade on election night as betting odds move in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.While the election is far too early to call, online betting sites, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election">PredictIt</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024">Polymarket,</a> show Trump ahead in the race for the top job.This turn in sentiment supported the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump trade</a>, which is predicated on corporate tax cuts and significant deficit spending, as well as hawkish trade and foreign policy, Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Capital.com">Capital.com,</a> said in a note on election night."Deeper deficit spending implies stronger US growth, higher corporate profits (juiced by tax cuts), higher levels of debt, greater Treasury issuance, and marginally higher inflation," wrote Rodda."This dynamic draws investors into equities, especially 'old' or 'real' economy companies in the industrials, financials, materials and energy sectors, with the Dollar rising because of higher rates and upward pressure on yields from higher inflationary pressures and debt issuance," he added.US Treasury yields rose across the board on Tuesday night as investors view a second Trump presidential term as <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*4j037*_ga*MTM0MjM1NDU5My4xNjg1MTUzMTcw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDg1ODYyOS4xNDM0LjEuMTczMDg1OTIxMC42MC4wLjA.">an inflationary event.</a> Trump has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates.The benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year Treasury yield</a> climbed about 14 basis points to about 4.4315% as of 10:26 p.m. ET. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-2-years">two-year yield</a> gained 7 basis points to 4.2699%.Bets on higher interest rates sent the US dollar higher. The <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">US Dollar Index,</a> which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 1.43% higher.The dollar gained 1.5% against the Japanese yen, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-jpy">USD/JPY</a> currency pair at 153.9. Meanwhile, the greenback was 1.5% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-eur">euro</a> and 3% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-mxn">Mexican peso.</a>Meanwhile, US futures moved higher on increasing prospects of a Trump win. Supporters of Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies view them as pro-business moves that would boost corporate profits and deal activity.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> were up 1.25% higher, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones Industrial Average futures</a> were up 1.2%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> gained 1.2%.Cryptocurrencies are also gaining, with Bitcoin up 6.8%. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">endorsed digital assets</a> in recent years, and some investors are buying the asset as an inflation hedge.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/djt-stock">Trump Media and Technology Group</a> shares rallied 10.4% in after-hours trade after reporting third-quarter earnings, which initially sent shares down. The social media company, which trades under Trump's initials, reported an operating loss of $23.7 million and a net loss of $19.2 million. But it has no debt and a balance of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $673 million as of September 30 — sharply higher than in the second quarter."Markets are very thin and skittish, DJT exceptionally so," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.Rodda wrote that even though the Trump trade is playing out hours after the polls closed, it's still too early for confident calls."Ultimately, the counting is only just starting and a clear result is some way from being found. While some states have already been called by the media, most swing states have either just closed the polls and have just started tabulating votes, or are still open," he added.

The Trump trade is taking off on election night

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This is an excerpt from the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>From the polls to the bars. For many Americans, election night is a chance to blow off steam after an intense few months of campaigning that included a last-minute candidate switch and two assassination attempts.Business Insider's Juliana Kaplan has a story on how businesses <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-night-prep-drinks-specials-cannabis-bipartisan-parties-2024-11">are leaning into the election season finale</a> with events and promos.As polarizing as this year has been, many businesses are taking a bipartisan approach. Whether it's weed strains or cocktails — Kamala Kush and the MAGA-rita — restaurants and retailers are happy to cater to both sides. (After all, for most of them, green is the only color that matters.)The homebodies are also set to make their economic mark on election night. In 2020, one food delivery company showed sales increased 20% on election night compared to the Tuesday prior.One tech giant is also using the election to expand on its media ambitions: Amazon.Veteran anchor Brian Williams is leading an election-night special on Prime Video. The one-off program will include more than a dozen contributors, such as James Carville and Shepard Smith. BI's Lucia Moses spoke to Williams' longtime producer, Jonathan Wald, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-brian-williams-election-night-special-plan-executive-producer-2024-10">about the show</a>.The election isn't a boon for all businesses.This time of year comes with plenty of anxiety. Almost 70% of US adults reported the election being a "significant" source of stress, according to an August survey from the American Psychological Association.That could result in workers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-election-cutting-into-some-worker-productivity-2024-11">having a tough time focusing today</a> and impacting their productivity, writes BI's Tim Paradis. A survey last month of US managers from <a target="_blank" href="http://ResumeBuilder.com">ResumeBuilder.com</a> found 38% felt the election had already hurt morale and productivity.For many, the concerns aren't just about the election outcome. They're about the reaction to the results. With tensions high, the country is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-civil-unrest-risk-kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-11">bracing for civil unrest after the election</a>, writes BI's Katie Balevic.One data analytics and risk management company ranks the US among the five most high-risk countries for civil unrest. (The other four were Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and South Africa.)Further heightening things is the likelihood of a legal fight over the election. The 2024 presidential race is already the most litigated in history, with more than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-litigation-donald-trump-kamala-harris-democrats-republicans-2024-10">200 pending preelection lawsuits across 40 states</a>, writes BI's Natalie Musumeci.<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Here's what to watch for as the day unfolds</a>.The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

How companies are looking to cash in on Election Day

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AI companies have been adjusting their election offerings and guidelines ahead of Election Day.</li><li>Perplexity launched an Election Information Hub with information on candidates, voting logistics, and results.</li></ul><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">Election week</a> has finally arrived. This time around, it will serve as an important test for the AI companies willing to provide their users with election-related information and updates on voting results.ChatGPT didn't exist during the last presidential election in 2020. Its <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-openai-company-chatgpt-elon-musk-founded-2022-12">launch two years ago</a> kicked off a wave of generative AI chatbots and tools integrated into popular consumer products like Google Search.Ahead of the election, the companies behind the products had to decide what restrictions, if any, they would implement on AI-generated content related to the election, analyzing the associated risks.Some, like the AI startup Perplexity, are loudly leaning into it.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/perplexity-ai-startup-lawsuit-allegations-targets-funding-2024-10">AI search engine</a> launched a dedicated "Election Information Hub" that uses AI to provide information about the upcoming election and results tracking. The hub includes details about voting requirements, how to find your polling place and poll times, and AI-summarized analysis on ballot measures and candidates, the company <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.perplexity.ai/hub/blog/introducing-the-election-information-hub">wrote</a> in an announcement.<div type="image" title="Perplexity providing information about how to vote in New York" height="1358" width="2876" msid="114958491" hostid="261" sizebytes="107828"></div>"Perplexity uses a process called Retrieval-Augmented Generation to identify relevant information and summarize it in a way that's tailored to a user's query," Perplexity spokesperson Sara Platnick told Business Insider.For election-related questions, the company is using a "curated set" of non-partisan and fact-checked sources, the company said. The separate hub doesn't use stored knowledge from the model's training data in its responses, which helps minimize hallucinations, Platnick told BI.Perplexity will also start offering live updates on elections on Tuesday by using data from The Associated Press. Other responses will use information from Democracy Works and other non-partisan factual sources like Ballotpedia and news organizations, Platnick said.<div type="image" title="Response to query about who will most likely win the election" height="1184" width="1579" msid="114958489" hostid="261" sizebytes="78204"></div>Alon Yamin, the cofounder and CEO of AI-based text analysis platform <a target="_blank" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/copyleaks.com/__;!!JZyed81S!itOc7IDeF_76NxsTUPRsm7xTzocjiL3rm1gW5KKoRo7WetzRSjCOUxm_bOIxkDmjSF4sJyCQNmuN0oTLaA$">Copyleaks</a>, said Perplexity's approach "can certainly help filter and contextualize content," helping users access reliable sources.Yamin said there are potential benefits that come with using AI for election information. AI can provide real-time updates and help identify trends, voter sentiment, and key issues.However, Yamin said that the chance of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/snowflake-ceo-sridhar-ramaswamy-ai-hallucination-rates-2024-11">AI hallucinations</a> and accuracy issues presents risks.Other companies are taking different approaches. OpenAI will continue to integrate election-related responses into ChatGPT while providing some extra features in light of the election.<div type="image" title="ChatGPT response to query about who will win 2024 presidential election" height="1289" width="1719" msid="114958486" hostid="261" sizebytes="114838"></div>Starting on November 5th, those who ask ChatGPT about election result queries will see a message encouraging users to check sources like the Associated Press and Reuters, or state and local election boards for "the most complete and up-to-date information," the company said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://openai.com/index/how-openai-is-approaching-2024-worldwide-elections/">post</a> updated on October 31.OpenAI said it was "actively testing the safeguards" put in place over the last year and monitoring for any issues. It also said it will continue to adjust its protective measures, which include transparency around AI-generated content and preventing chatbots from pretending to be real people.ChatGPT will also direct users to the US voting information site <a target="_blank" href="http://CanIVote.org">CanIVote.org</a> when asked procedural election-related questions.Anthropic's Claude similarly implemented a pop-up feature that allows users who ask for voting information to be redirected to TurboVote, a nonpartisan resource from Democracy Works, it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/us-elections-readiness">wrote</a> in a post.Anthropic has other guardrails in place, including prohibiting users from using it to promote a specific candidate or issue. It said it would also prevent the chatbot from being used to generate misinformation about election laws, candidates, or related topics. In its post, the company said outputs will be limited to text-only to help eliminate "the risk of election-related deepfakes."While the live election updates may be helpful to users, AI-generated election content poses a number of risks.Yamin said AI can spread biased information, misinterpret data, and create false narratives. He also added that these models are "only as good as the data they are trained on," which opens the risk of AI-generated responses reflecting the bias of the data they are trained on.Misunderstandings could be amplified if AI misinterprets information and serves up inaccurate results, especially in a fast-moving and closely followed election environment, Yamin told BI.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-gemini-ai-layoffs-innovation-boring-2024-2">Google</a>, which experienced some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-scales-back-ai-in-search-feature-overviews-eat-glue-2024-5">highly publicized AI fails</a> with its Gemini AI and AI Overviews, chose to implement constraints on what users can ask its AI products about the election. Google has said is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-restricts-gemini-ai-chatbot-answering-election-questions-trump-biden-2024-3">restricting its AI chatbot Gemini</a> from answering questions about <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/elections">elections</a> "out of an abundance of caution."<div type="image" title="Screenshot of Trump query in Gemini" height="1239" width="1651" msid="114958488" hostid="261" sizebytes="42396"></div>A similar search on Google's main search product on Monday didn't trigger an AI Overview summary, showing the "Top Stories" carousel of stories from publishers. Google did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.Brad Carson, cofounder and president of the nonprofit Americans for Responsible Innovation, told BI that while Google's approach is commendable, it's not a global solution to the problem.Carson said that combatting disinformation is "not an easy task," and while it's smart for companies to try and do more to limit misinformation, the government should work on legislation that requires AI companies to clearly label the information they serve to users."I feel that other products will probably fill the gap that Google is vacating, but I think it is responsible of Google to try to step back a bit from this," Carson said.

The election is a big test for AI companies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A survey of 119 investors found that 53% think former president Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris.</li><li>Investors believe fossil fuel and industrial companies should do well under Trump, the survey said.</li></ul>Many of the bigwigs of finance <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-political-contributions-by-name-for-trump-vs-harris-2024-8#peter-orszag-15">have picked their sides</a>, but Wall Street seems to believe one candidate has the upper hand in this year's presidential election.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-donald-trump-betting-odds-whale-french-trader-harris-polls-2024-10">Betting markets</a> have leaned toward former President Donald Trump, and the financial markets have already priced in a Trump win, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-16/druckenmiller-says-market-is-very-convinced-trump-will-win">according to billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller</a>. A note from Barclays London-based analyst Emmanuel Cau <a target="_blank" href="https://fortune.com/2024/10/24/wall-street-election-trump-win-europe/">stated</a> that European stocks are already trading at a discount due to the potential impact of tariffs.A <a target="_blank" href="https://buy.stripe.com/9AQ29Lba8esAcqAdQS">survey</a> of SumZero's investor community — a mix of small hedge funds, family offices, private equity firms, and more — found that 53% believe Trump will prevail. The survey included responses from just 119 members, but reflects the thinking of a segment of analysts and investors influencing meaningful amounts of money. The consensus among respondents is that a Trump victory would create a favorable environment for companies in the fossil fuels, financials, and US industrials sectors.Meanwhile, "renewable energy, ESG investments, and retail" may struggle, the survey notes. SumZero — which was founded by Divya Narendra, who started the Facebook predecessor with the Winklevoss twins in college — has more than 16,000 investors on its platform sharing investment ideas, according to its website.This Trump belief is not limited to just fans of the former president.Billionaire Citadel founder and big GOP donor Ken Griffin has been critical of the former president, calling him a "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/ken-griffin-to-three-time-loser-trump-step-aside-for-desantis">three-time loser</a>" in 2022. But he predicted Trump would beat Vice President Kamala Harris at a conference in Saudi Arabia last week, even if it is close."It is a race that Trump is favored to win, but it is almost a coin toss," Griffin said at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">Prediction markets</a>, which have exploded this year as online gambling grows across the US, certainly lean toward Trump, and Druckenmiller said in mid-October that markets are "very convinced" of a Republican victory.But Wall Street has certainly been wrong before. Few mainstream investors and bankers supported Trump in his first run when he unexpectedly beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. This time around, he has big-name billionaire supporters, such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a victory wouldn't catch the investment community off guard again. One of the world's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-election-forecast-most-accurate-economist-predicts-outcome-economic-impact-2024-10">most accurate economists</a>, Christophe Barraud, for instance, is putting his credibility on the line for a Trump win.But, at least for one of finance's biggest names, the race is way too close to be 100% on a prediction."We are at this moment of peak uncertainty," Griffin said.

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