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The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], March 1 (ANI): In a research report titled "When 8 per cent becomes the new normal: Decoding the new normals of a GDP on swing," the State Bank of India's Economic Research Department unveils key insights into India's economic landscape, shedding light on the recent GDP surge and providing projections for the future. The report highlights the unprecedented growth witnessed in India's economy during the third quarter of FY24, defying all estimates and expectations. India's GDP expanded by a remarkable 8.4 per cent during this period, following consecutive quarters of over 8 per cent growth. This surge has been attributed to effective policy frameworks and perspectives, which have surpassed irrational market expectations. The buoyancy in indirect tax collection, marked by a 32 per cent year-on-year growth amounting to Rs 3.9 lakh crore, further underlines the robustness of the economy. As a result, projections for FY24 indicate a GDP growth of 7.6 per cent and Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 6.9 per cent. The report suggests that the GDP growth for the fourth quarter could be around 5.9 per cent, indicating a potential attainment of 8 per cent growth for the fiscal year. Significant revisions in both annual and quarterly numbers have led to upward adjustments in the GDP figures for FY22 and FY24. This revision has propelled the Year-to-Date (YTD) GDP growth rate above the 8 per cent mark. However, downward revisions in FY23 GDP numbers have implications for the fiscal deficit, necessitating an upward revision to 5.9 per cent of GDP for FY24. Delving into sectoral performances, the report highlights stellar performances in <keyword id="20788019" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manufacturing-and-services" source="keywords">Manufacturing and Services</keyword>, buoyed by significant growth in industry, manufacturing, and construction sectors. However, the agriculture sector witnessed a decline of -0.8 per cent in Q3, attributed to uncontrollable factors. Moreover, the report underscores remarkable milestones achieved in terms of per capita GDP, with current prices crossing the Rs 2 lakh mark in FY24. Decadal Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) stands at 8.9 per cent, with notable increases observed even in constant prices. Notably, post-pandemic recovery has seen a substantial jump in per capita GDP. The report also analyzes investment and savings trends over the past decade, revealing an increase in Gross Capital Formation (GCF) and gross savings. <keyword id="19964112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="noteworthy" source="keywords">Noteworthy</keyword> is the improvement in the <keyword id="20788020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="incremental-capital-output" source="keywords">Incremental Capital Output</keyword> ratio (ICOR), indicating increasing efficiency of capital utilization and laying the groundwork for sustained economic growth. In conclusion, the findings of the SBI report suggest a promising outlook for India's economy, with the potential for sustained growth at 8 per cent in FY25. (ANI)

SBI report deciphers India's GDP surge and economic projections

In a significant diplomatic move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu at <keyword id="20751669" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hyderabad-House" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Hyderabad House" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Hyderabad House">Hyderabad House</keyword> in Delhi on Monday. This visit is widely seen as an effort to reset ties between the two nations after a year of tense relations. <keyword id="20101322" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="President-Muizzu" source="keywords">President Muizzu</keyword>, who arrived in India on Sunday for a five-day visit, received a red carpet welcome. During a joint press briefing, President Muizzu expressed heartfelt gratitude to India, thanking President Droupadi Murmu, <keyword id="19899320" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PM-Modi" source="keywords">PM Modi</keyword> and the people of India for their warm reception. He emphasised the Maldives' deep-rooted ties with India, noting that tourism — especially Indian visitors—remains a crucial pillar of the Maldivian economy. “India is our largest source market for tourists, and we hope to welcome even more Indian visitors in the future,” Muizzu remarked. Key areas of cooperation discussed included economic ties and maritime security, critical given the Maldives' position in the Indian Ocean. Following their talks, India granted the financially struggling Maldives a rollover of USD 100 million in Treasury bills, in addition to formalising a <keyword id="23458604" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="currency-swap-agreement" source="keywords">currency swap agreement</keyword> and a ₹3,000 crore currency swap. Prime Minister Modi characterised the "development partnership" as a key component of India-Maldives relations, asserting that India has consistently prioritised the needs of the Maldivian people. "Our development partnership is vital to our relationship with the Maldives, and we have always placed importance on the priorities of its people. This year, SBI rolled over USD 100 million in Treasury Bills, and a USD 400 million currency swap agreement was signed based on the Maldives' requirements," he explained. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="106837748" title="Withdraw troops by mid-March, Maldives tells India" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>In September, India announced that the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="State-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="State Bank of India">State Bank of India</keyword> would purchase Maldivian government bonds worth USD 50 million, following a similar USD 50 million transaction in May 2024. Additionally, Prime Minister Modi and President Muizzu witnessed the first <keyword id="20563654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RuPay-card" source="keywords">RuPay card</keyword> payment transaction launched in the Maldives and virtually inaugurated the runway at Hanimaadhoo International Airport. Modi stated that India and the Maldives would soon be connected through UPI. "Recently, we launched the RuPay card in the Maldives, and in the future, we will link both countries via UPI," he said during a joint press briefing. Muizzu also expressed his desire to conclude a <keyword id="19945642" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Free-Trade-Agreement" source="keywords">Free Trade Agreement</keyword> with India, a step he believes will open the door to greater Indian investment in the Maldives. Modi emphasised India's commitment to supporting the Maldives through various initiatives, including supplying essential commodities and Covid vaccines, inaugurating airports, and constructing social housing. He noted that a new drinking water project is now operational on 28 islands, providing clean water to over 30,000 residents. The leaders also discussed the opening of consulates in Addu and Bengaluru. Tensions between India and the Maldives escalated following Muizzu's election last year, which saw a shift towards a pro-China stance and the promise to withdraw Indian troops stationed in the archipelago. His visit to China before India in January had raised eyebrows in New Delhi, as it was perceived as a slight. However, since attending Modi's swearing-in ceremony for a third term in June, Muizzu has moderated his anti-Indian rhetoric, signalling a thaw in relations. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has stated that the discussions provided "a new impetus" to the relationship. This meeting likely marks a positive turn in Indo-Maldivian relations, setting the stage for further cooperation between the two South Asian neighbours. (With inputs from agencies) <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112094153" title="Maldives President Muizzu thanks India for economic support, affirms hope of signing FTA" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

Maldives President Muizzu met with PM Modi in Delhi today. Here’s how it went!

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], February 28 (<keyword id="19904948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ani" source="keywords">ANI</keyword>): The State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has released its analysis projecting the GDP growth for the third quarter of the financial year 2023-24. According to their report, the GDP growth is likely to be at 6.8 per cent, based on an unchanged base, but could potentially hit 7 per cent due to expected downward revisions in the estimates for Q3 FY23. As per a report by <keyword id="20407500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="soumya-kanti-ghosh" source="keywords">Soumya Kanti Ghosh</keyword>, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, the global economic landscape, as outlined in the report, presents a mixed picture with several significant developments impacting the trajectory. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025, indicating a brighter outlook. However, challenges persist, with countries like the UK and Japan slipping into recession, alongside concerns over the German economy. Additionally, China's marked slowdown, driven by deflationary concerns and declining industrial profits, adds further complexity to the global scenario. In contrast, India's domestic economic indicators show signs of resilience and optimism. Consumer confidence has strengthened, supported by positive sentiments regarding the economic situation and employment conditions. Various enterprise surveys also reflect strong business optimism. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index, comprising 41 leading indicators across sectors, suggests a slight moderation in economic activity in Q3 FY24. Based on this data, the SBI Economic Research Department estimates GDP growth in the range of 6.7-6.9 per cent, with a Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 6.6 per cent. Corporate India continues to exhibit robust performance, driven by accelerating consumption patterns across urban and rural areas. Corporate results for Q3FY24 indicate significant growth in <keyword id="20140796" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ebidta" source="keywords">EBIDTA</keyword> and PAT (Profit After Tax), with a notable improvement in margins. Corporate GVA, measured by EBIDTA plus employee expenses, recorded strong growth compared to the previous year. The agricultural sector, however, faces some challenges, with a decline in the estimated production of major Kharif crops for 2023-24 compared to FY23. While the sowing season for Rabi crops suggests a slight increase in overall acreage, concerns arise over the decline in the sown area under cereals. Despite these challenges, the inland fish production has shown rapid growth, reaching 131.13 lakh tonnes in 2022-23. The fisheries sector's contribution to the national GVA and agricultural GVA indicates potential support for the Agri &amp; Allied sector's growth in FY24. (ANI)

SBI Eco Research forecasts Q3 FY24 GDP growth at 6.8% amid global complexities

If <keyword id="6354484" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="Orion">Donald Trump</keyword> wins US Presidential election it would be beneficial for India says a <keyword id="35145" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-market" source="Orion">global market</keyword> research by Nomura. The report says India is likely to benefit from <keyword id="19906203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Trump" source="keywords">Trump</keyword> policies. "We see India as a relative beneficiary, due to its domestic demand-driven growth model and benefits from lower commodity prices, supply chain shifts and on foreign policy." The report however adds that "India and the US share deep economic and strategic interests that are unlikely to be compromised, irrespective of the election outcome. The US also sees India as a strategic counterweight to China on foreign policy. India is a large, domestic demand-driven economy, so the economic fallout of weaker US <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> should be limited." Any frictions on trade and immigration under Trump Presidency will be offset by the gains accruing to India from the ongoing supply chain shifts, as de-risking from China will gather momentum. The economic impact on India should also be limited. India's economy is largely driven by domestic demand, so the potential fallout from weaker US growth will likely to be contained and the negative growth spill over should be limited. On the contrary, lower commodity prices owing to the hit to China's growth and lower oil prices, due to a greater push towards fossil fuels, will be beneficial for India. The report says India's large forex reserve and fiscal disciple can handle any volatility. "We also believe that India is well-prepared to handle any volatility stemming from US policies, amid its large FX reserves buffer, stable growth-moderate inflation mix, high real rates, fiscal discipline and a continued focus on reforms" Trade friction between India and the US may resurface under Trump's Presidency, as India runs a trade surplus with the US, which could draw scrutiny. India's merchandise trade surplus, which stood at around USD 32 billion in 2023, may face challenges if Trump reinstates tariffs or takes punitive measures. India's high tariffs on certain goods have been flagged before, and these issues may re-emerge. However, these frictions are likely to be outweighed by the medium-term benefits of supply chain relocation. As companies move away from China, India remains at the forefront, attracting investments and reshoring efforts due to its large consumer base, manufacturing policies, and economic reforms. One area where India could face challenges is immigration. Indian nationals make up over 72 per cent of the H-1B work visas issued by the US, and any tightening of immigration policies could impact Indian professionals. While Trump's focus has largely been on illegal immigration, changes to legal immigration processes could also pose difficulties for Indian IT companies and professionals. Despite this, Indian firms have already adapted by reducing their reliance on H-1B visas and hiring more domestic workers in the US, potentially softening the blow of any immigration policy changes. On the foreign policy front, India is expected to benefit under a Trump presidency. With less emphasis on human rights and democratic values, India could see fewer clashes with the US over sensitive issues. Additionally, Trump's softer stance towards Russia could align with India's interests, given its ties with Moscow. India's strategic importance as a counterweight to China will continue to strengthen under Trump, ensuring that the partnership between the two nations remains robust in the defence, security, and economic domains. However, the report adds, India and the United States share deep-rooted economic and strategic interests, which are expected to remain strong, regardless of the US election outcome. As the US sees India as a key counterweight to China, India's large domestic demand-driven economy ensures it remains insulated from the potential negative impacts of a weaker US economic growth.

India is likely to benefit if Trump wins US elections, per Nomura Global Research

The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

New Delhi: <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> has demonstrated a largely successful inflation targeting regime compared to advanced economies such as the USA, Germany, and France, according to a research report by the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" source="keywords">State Bank of India</keyword> (SBI). The report credits government initiatives, the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>, and banks for addressing these issues over the past decade, allowing for better policy transmission and improved inflation management. "The success of Inflation Targeting in India is largely a byproduct of a vibrant financial ecosystem where <keyword id="23140158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi-government" source="keywords">RBI, Government</keyword> and the Banks are working closely in unison in ushering in market reforms" said the report The report highlighted that India experienced minimal deviations from its inflation targets between 2021 and 2024, setting it apart from other global economies facing greater inflationary challenges. It added that during 2021-2024, India recorded one of the lowest deviations from its inflation targets, highlighting the effectiveness of its inflation control measures. This success, the report points out, is largely a result of coordinated efforts between the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) and the central government. "India had a largely successful inflation targeting regime. Compared to advanced economies like the USA, Germany" said the report. As per the report the synchronization of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly during the pandemic, played a key role in maintaining price stability. It also emphasized that India's pre-inflation targeting regime faced several challenges that hindered the effective transmission of monetary policy. These challenges included sustained fiscal dominance, the presence of a large informal sector, significant informal financing, and inefficiencies in how banks priced their loan products. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in India's pre-Inflation Targeting regime was constrained by several India specific factors that affected transmission of the policy impulses through the interest rate channel" the report added. However, one of the key arguments in the report is that the RBI's inflation targeting has anchored inflationary expectations, even as food inflation remains high. The notion that headline inflation should exclude food prices was dismissed as counterfactual by the report. According to the study, the RBI's success in targeting inflation, despite food price volatility, has prevented a spill-over from food inflation to core inflation. The report stressed that the RBI's consistent communication of its inflation target--set at 4 per cent--has been crucial in successfully anchoring inflation expectations. By reinforcing its commitment to this target, the RBI has helped stabilize inflationary trends across the broader economy. The SBI report reinforces India's effective monetary policy framework, particularly in light of the global inflationary pressures seen in advanced economies like the US and Germany.

India handled inflation much better than US, Germany and France: SBI Report

The <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> on Thursday latched on to a new rich list to attack the Centre, alleging that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "<keyword id="21027901" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="billionaire-raj" source="keywords">billionaire raj</keyword>" is more unequal than even the <keyword id="20034027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="British-Raj" source="keywords">British Raj</keyword> and it is also the cornerstone of the government's <keyword id="22965777" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-policy-making" source="keywords">economic policy-making</keyword>. Congress general secretary in-charge communications <keyword id="20035989" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jairam-Ramesh" source="keywords">Jairam Ramesh</keyword> shared on X a media report which cited the <keyword id="21075617" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hurun-India-Rich-List" source="keywords">Hurun India Rich List</keyword> to state that India created a new billionaire every five days throughout 2023. "India has had one billionaire for every five days in 2023, and the non-biological Prime Minister's closest friend is the foremost among them all," Ramesh said on X. "Modi's Billionaire Raj is more unequal than even the British Raj. But it is also the cornerstone of the government's economic policy-making," he alleged. This is why, at a time when countries across the world are coalescing around the idea of a global billionaire tax, the Indian government has been conspicuously silent and continues to remain blind to rapidly increasing economic inequalities, Ramesh said. Recouping the dent caused by the <keyword id="20016892" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindenburg-Research" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Hindenburg Research" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Hindenburg Research">Hindenburg Research</keyword> report, <keyword id="19929098" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gautam-Adani" source="keywords">Gautam Adani</keyword>'s networth shot up 95 per cent to Rs 11.6 lakh crore last year, which helped him replace <keyword id="19916798" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mukesh-Ambani" source="keywords">Mukesh Ambani</keyword> to become the richest Indian, according to the 2024 Hurun India Rich List. Reliance Industries Chairman and Managing Director Ambani's overall networth increased by 25 per cent to Rs 10.14 lakh crore, as per the Hurun list. In 2023's report, Adani's wealth declined by 57 per cent to Rs 4.74 lakh crore, and Ambani was way ahead with a fortune of Rs 8.08 lakh crore. It can be noted that Adani's networth declined sharply following various allegations levelled by US-based short seller Hindenburg Research. The conglomerate has denied all the allegations. In the 2014 edition, Hurun had pegged Adani's fortunes at Rs 44,000 crore, which made him the tenth richest Indian then.

PM Modi's 'Billionaire Raj' more unequal than even British Raj: Congress

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly Rs 20,000 crore from Indian stock markets in just five trading days (November 4–8), continuing a trend of large-scale selling that began last month. Experts say investors are now moving their money to China, largely due to the high valuations presently prevailing in Indian markets. In early November, FPIs have offloaded as much as Rs 19,994 crore in Indian markets. The month prior, i.e., October, was one of the worst months in terms of foreign outflows, with FPIs making a net withdrawal of Rs 94,017 crore. Before this, Indian markets faced such a situation during the pandemic, when FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. <h2>Why Are Investors Leaving? </h2>According to Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India, two main factors are driving this exodus. First is China's renewed appeal due to lower stock valuations and new economic stimulus measures. In a bid to nudge the domestic economy and bail state governments, China recently approved a 10-trillion yuan (US $1.4 trillion) package. Per reports, approximately 60% of this stimulus focuses on allowing local governments to refinance the mountain of debt on them. Srivastava explains foreign investors are also flocking to US dollar and Treasury yields, which have appreciated significantly in the recent past, leading FPIs to anticipate a stronger US economy going ahead. Moreover, high valuations in Indian markets are discouraging foreign investors from putting more money in the economy. As a result, over the past week, the selling pressure eroded Rs 74,563 crore in market value for Reliance Industries, while Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank lost Rs 26,274 crore and Rs 22,254 crore, respectively. The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms dipped by Rs 1,55,721.12 crore last week. <h2> Silver linings</h2>Despite the ongoing outflux of funds since last month, November also saw unprecedented applications of about 40–50 new FPI registrations, which are eyeing to enter the Indian market. This was due to markets SEBIs recent relaxation to NRIs, permitting them to participate up to 100% and announcing measures for ease of entry and operations in India. On the other hand, FPIs invested Rs 599 crore in the debt general limit and Rs 2,896 crore in the debt voluntary retention route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market. <li class="whitespace-normal break-words"></li>Going ahead, investors will be looking for certain macroeconomic cues, which include corporate earnings reports, India's inflation (CPI) and industrial production (IIP) data on November 12, the US inflation report on November 13, and wholesale price index (WPI) data on November 14.

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Dollar dominance faces key challenges in the future, Brookings researchers said.</li><li>The think tank pointed to four forces that could be make the greenback less attractive. </li></ul>There are a handful of challenges to the dollar's top status in financial markets, according to researchers from the Brookings Institution.In a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-changing-role-of-the-us-dollar/">note</a>, the think tank pointed to the US dollar's shifting status in global financial markets, with the use of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-imf-stealth-erosion-global-us-dollar-forex-reserves-sanctions-2024-6">greenback declining steadily </a>over the past several decades. While the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dedollarization-dollar-dominance-currency-war-trade-usd-reserves-explained-2024-5">dollar still dominates</a> central bank reserves and world trade, the currency accounted for 59% of all global reserves at the start of 2024, down from 71% of reserve in 1999, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund.<div type="image" title="Dollar's share of global reserves graph" height="1138" width="1145" msid="112816893" hostid="261" sizebytes="59508"></div>Meanwhile, the share of nontraditional currency reserves has edged higher. Currencies like the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc, and Chinese yuan accounted for 11% of all central bank reserves at the start of this year, up from 2% recorded in 1999, per IMF data.<div type="image" title="Share of nontraditional currency reserves" height="1162" width="1151" msid="112816894" hostid="261" sizebytes="62210"></div>That decline has sparked some fear among investors that the dollar could soon be ousted from its top-dog position in financial markets. While most experts say that <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-war-usd-yuan-china-russia-brics-currency-2024-7">likely isn't happening anytime soon</a>, the think tank said the dollar's dominant status faces key challenges, pointing to four factors in particular.<h2 id="eb86da1f-7f18-4189-b9a3-3748f015a7bb">1. US sanctions</h2>The US began implementing sanctions on Russia and its allies after Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That's sparked a de-dollarization drive in Russia and other BRICS nations, which have suggested they're looking to shift away from the dollar as a reaction to Western trade restrictions.Russia, in particular, has taken steps to heavily de-dollarize its economy, with the nation adopting a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-china-yuan-ruble-exchange-rate-benchmark-new-sanctions-2024-6">yuan-to-ruble exchange rate</a>, proposing a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-dominance-currencies-brics-china-russia-india-putin-2023-7">rival currency to the greenback</a>, and reportedly spearheading an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-actively-working-brics-local-currencies-platform-us-dollar-2024-6">alternative payment platform</a> that wouldn't be reliant on the dollar.China, which saw its companies hit with <a target="_blank" href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2546">secondary sanctions</a> from the US Treasury last week, has also signaled a shift away from the dollar, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-china-yuan-cny-trade-usd-sanctions-protection-reserve-currency-2024-5">promoting its yuan as an alternative</a>."If the United States is capricious with sanctions, acts unilaterally, and fails to develop a doctrine of economic statecraft, the dollar could be dethroned," Brookings researchers said, citing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-sanctions-russia-us-dollar-dominance-yellen-alternative-yuan-dedollarization-2023-4">comments</a> from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.<h2 id="eff7251a-f1be-40d0-8494-5988c77ddab7">2. US debt</h2>The US's rising debt load could make currency holders more wary of the dollar, especially if there are concerns that the US may not be able to pay back its dues.While the US debt balance hasn't yet breached unsustainable levels, the government's rapid pace of spending has done little to ease markets. Fitch, for instance, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fitch-downgrades-us-credit-rating-deficit-debt-ceiling-2023-8#:~:text=Fitch%20downgraded%20the%20US's%20credit,the%20debt%20limit%20until%202025.">downgraded the US</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fitch-downgrades-us-credit-rating-deficit-debt-ceiling-2023-8#:~:text=Fitch%20downgraded%20the%20US's%20credit,the%20debt%20limit%20until%202025."> credit rating</a> last year, citing a "steady deterioration in standards of governance.""Bickering over appropriations, Congress has shut the government down several times. Further political instability could erode investor confidence in the dollar," the researchers said.<h2 id="c18d8d68-8ac9-451c-b2c2-8ff5942f963f">3. Improved payment technology</h2>More advanced payment systems have made it easier to exchange nontraditional currencies. That could weigh on demand for the US dollar, which has traditionally been seen as the most attractive medium of exchange."Typically, converting such currencies to dollars, and vice versa, has been easier and cheaper than exchanging them for one another. But China and India, for example, will soon no longer need to exchange their respective currencies for dollars to conduct trade cheaply. Rather, exchanging renminbi for rupees directly will become cheaper. Consequently, the reliance on 'vehicle currencies,' particularly the dollar, will decline," Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in a previous note.<h2 id="0b9967af-c144-471b-8ee3-4faf7baad925">4. Central bank digital currencies</h2>Digital currencies issued by central banks could also make it easier and cheaper to nontraditional currencies. China is developing one such <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-dominance-outlook-china-india-digital-currency-race-fed-innovation-2024-1">CBDC</a>, and CIPS, China's Cross-border Interbank payment system, has been "growing rapidly" over the past few years, the think-tank noted.The Fed has created its own instant payment network, but hasn't moved to create a CBDC, with Powell suggesting last year that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/is-fednow-replacing-cash-is-it-a-central-bank-digital-currency.htm">digital currency would require approval from lawmakers</a>. That means the US risks falling behind other countries, where digital payment tech is rapidly developing, Brookings researchers said.Still, despite warnings, most currency experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-war-currency-usd-dominance-china-yuan-economy-2024-5">do not believe de-dollarization</a> is a near-term threat to the US or its currency. At the moment, there are no close competitors to the greenback in financial markets — and countries that try to de-dollarize anyway <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-war-usd-yuan-china-russia-brics-currency-2024-7">risk a host of economic consequences</a>, like slower growth and lost investment value, one commodities vet told Business Insider.

You Searched For "state bank of indias economic research department" and got 12 results

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FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

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