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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Private lending is now Blackstone's largest business by assets, up 22% since last year.</li><li>COO Jon Gray said it's "very early days" for the burgeoning business.</li></ul>Blackstone made its name buying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackstone-employee-ownership-program-hvac-company-copeland-kkr-2024-10">undervalued companies</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-market-bottom-crash-blackstone-goldman-sachs-2024-3">real estate.</a> But in the third quarter of this year, the company's burgeoning credit arm was the star of the show.In reporting earnings on Thursday, the New York-based buyout firm said its business of cobbling together and investing in loans is now its largest unit by assets. The so-called credit and insurance division boasts assets under management of $354.7 billion, up 22% over last year. By contrast, Blackstone's private-equity business manages $344.7 billion, and its real-estate investing arm, the firm's largest business at the start of the quarter, has $325.1 billion."Today, we manage the largest third-party private credit business in the world," Blackstone's President and Chief Operating Officer, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jon-gray-blackstone-profile-succession-schwarzman-interview-ceo-bumble-oatly-2021-1?r=gray-teaser">Jonathan Gray</a>, said in a call to discuss the firm's financial results. "We have one of the largest, if not the largest, businesses in direct lending, CLOs, real estate debt, and private investment-grade credit," Gray added.Blackstone's private-credit coronation comes as the alternative investments industry increasingly turns toward a growing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/private-credit-lenders-middle-market-deals-2023-11">opportunity in non-bank lending</a>. A combination of high interest rates and a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rates-bank-failures-commercial-real-estate-us-economy-outlook-2024-5">banking crisis</a> that has considerably slowed bank lending has increased demand for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-private-credit-market-risks-retail-investors-debt-investing-2024-5">non-bank loans</a>. Since these lenders often charge higher interest rates, institutional investors are also clamoring to provide capital for these loans to juice fixed-income returns.Blackstone has been tapping into investor demand for private loans in recent months, including what Gray described as a "dramatic increase in demand for all forms of investment grade private credit."Both Gray and Blackstone founder and CEO Steve Schwarzman, meanwhile, seem to think Blackstone's private-credit boom is just getting started."We are building a third-party performing credit juggernaut, and we expect our business to grow significantly from here," Gray said.<h2 id="8b520868-07a0-4e48-a432-8f3b351a93f6">The largest third-party lender</h2>While Blackstone now claims to be the largest third-party credit provider, Apollo is the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apollo-global-management-investor-day-presentation-one-trillion-private-lending-2024-10">largest non-bank lender</a> with $562 billion in private credit assets under management. Apollo has relied on Athene, an insurance company it owns, to lend, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackstone-private-credit-investment-strategy-2022-10">Blackstone has focused on investing others' money</a>, forming strategic partnerships with four insurance companies, including Resolution Life, and financial advisory relationships with another 20.Gray expects the insurance industry to continue writing checks to private credit investors, especially in direct lending, a $25 trillion opportunity that's still in "very early days."Gray said that Blackstone's focus on partnering with investors, instead of competing with them by having its own insurance company, will help the business grow."We're not in the market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/marc-rowan-profile-ceo-apollo-global-management-leon-black-2021-8">selling annuities</a>," Gray said. "We are a third-party investment manager, and that definitely helps the conversations and helps our momentum here."Gray said the firm sees more pension funds and sovereign wealth clients moving into the space as well."I think over time it's going to move beyond insurance," he said." We're having good dialogue with pension clients. I think we'll see sovereign wealth funds start to do this as well.".Blackstone's private credit arm has generated 16.7% in returns over the last twelve months, though falling interest rates "put some pressure on absolute returns," Gray said. He expects investors to continue to flock to the strategy so long as it can produce returns at a premium to traditional fixed-income investments.<h2 id="c6df9c62-15a3-4bb8-8fe8-7ddacc78d287">"Broad-based acceleration"</h2>Blackstone on Thursday reported distributable earnings, or cash that pays dividends, of $1.3 billion, up 6% over last year — and beating expectations. Total assets under management climbed 10% from last year to $1.1 trillion. The firm's stock price approached its all-time high of $172 a share in midday trading amid what Steve Schwarzman described as a "broad-based acceleration across our businesses."The firm has been making a record number of investments over the last few months, especially in commercial real estate. Blackstone executives <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-blackstones-real-estate-buying-spree-as-valuations-plummet-2024-5">called a CRE bottom</a> earlier this year, and the company has deployed more than $24 billion into real estate debt and equity over the last twelve months.It's also been investing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackstone-steve-schwarzman-on-ai-infrastructure-investment-goals-2024-7">big in AI infrastructure</a>, particularly data centers, which will power the artificial intelligence revolution. In September, the firm announced said it would acquire AirTrunk, the largest data center platform in the Asia-Pacific region, in a $16 billion deal alongside the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.With $70 billion worth of data centers, and over $100 billion of prospective development, Schwarzman said the firm has become "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackstones-data-center-bets-have-climbed-10-fold-to-100-billion-2024-4">the largest data center provider in the world</a>" in only three years.Opportunities to cash out of investments to drive returns for investors continue to remain sluggish, however. On Thursday, both Schwarzman and Gray said there are plenty of signs that dealmaking is bouncing back, spurred by expectations for lower rates.Gray said the firm's private-equity nondisclosure agreements were up 2.5 times in September compared with the same time last year, suggesting an increase in discussions about potential deals.Gray also predicted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-omada-health-confidentially-filed-s1-ipo-public-2024-10">growing demand for IPOs</a>, which could help the firm sell some assets and generate returns for its LPs and fees for shareholders and employees.Gray described a meeting he went to this week where the IPO discussion had gone from "theoretical to the practical." Gray said the discussion is now along the lines of, "What's the right size? Should we do it in February or April?"

Inside Blackstone's growing 'credit juggernaut'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>S&amp;P Global cut its rating for Israel on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East escalate.</li><li>Israel's economy may suffer if there's a broad and drawn-out conflict, S&amp;P said.</li></ul>S&amp;P Global downgraded Israel on Thursday, warning that escalating tensions in the Middle East could affect its ability to repay debt.The ratings agency cut Israel's sovereign credit score from "AA-" to "A+" while maintaining a negative overall outlook."The recent increase in confrontation with Iran heightens already elevated geopolitical risks for Israel. We expect a wider regional conflict will be avoided, but the Israel-Hamas war and the confrontation with Hezbollah appear set to continue throughout 2024," it said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3155269">statement</a>.S&amp;P forecast that Israel's overall deficit will rise from about 4% to 8% by the end of this year, mostly due to higher defense spending. It projected that net general government debt is likely to peak at 66% in 2026, and any broadening of the conflict in the Middle East could take an even bigger toll on the country's economy."A wider regional conflict, which is not our baseline scenario, could have a further material negative impact on Israel's security situation and, consequently, its economic, fiscal, and balance-of-payments parameters," S&amp;P said.The downgrade — which puts Israel's credit rating on the same level as countries including China, Bermuda and Kuwait — came as senior US officials told multiple outlets that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4">Israel had struck Iran</a> overnight. Tel-Aviv is yet to claim formal responsibility for the attack.Another major credit ratings agency, Moody's, downgraded Israel for the first time in February, citing the impact that the ongoing war in Gaza could have on the country's finances.The Israeli shekel fell 0.2% against <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">the US dollar</a> on Friday as markets digested both the downgrade and the reported strike on Iran, according to data from Refinitiv.

Israel downgraded by another big credit ratings agency as Middle East tensions escalate

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Fitch Rating's US downgrade in August has dramatically shifted the debt market's composition.</li><li>With the US now rated AA+, the amount of outstanding AAA sovereign debt shrank 85% to about $5 trillion.</li></ul>Fitch Ratings' credit <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fitch-downgrades-us-credit-rating-deficit-debt-ceiling-2023-8">downgrade of US debt</a> in August has shifted the bond market's composition, putting junk bonds in the lead.By knocking the US rating from AAA to AA+, which is still investment grade, top-rated sovereign bonds no longer make up the largest nominal share of the market when measured by outstanding debt.Without $33 trillion of US debt, AAA debt shrank 85% to about $5 trillion. That narrowed the share of AAA debt to just 6% from over 40%.Meanwhile, speculative-grade sovereign debt, which is rated BB and below, was little changed at about $6.1 trillion, but it was still enough to exceed the sharply diminished pool of AAA debt.Only nine AAA-rated sovereigns remain at Fitch, including Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, and Singapore.S&amp;P downgraded US debt to AA+ in 2011. The US is still rated AAA at Moody's, though it warned last month that a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-debt-rating-moodys-government-shutdown-credit-negative-federal-deficit-2023-9">government shutdown would be "credit negative"</a> for the US debt rating. A last-minute deal was reached to avoid an October 1 shutdown, but another one potentially looms next month.The Moody's warning cited weak US governance. That echoed Fitch's downgrade, which came in response to the increasing brinkmanship in US politics, noting concerns that it was putting sound fiscal management at risk."In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025," the agency said in August, referring to the spring's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-debt-ceiling-default-became-partisan-weapon-democrats-republicans-2023-5">debt ceiling standoff</a>.

US credit downgrade means junk sovereign bonds now outweigh AAA debt for the first time, Fitch says

<ul><li>There is a suggestion to grant tax-free status to annuity income from the <keyword id="20240872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-pension-scheme" source="keywords">National Pension Scheme</keyword> (<keyword id="19919089" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nps" source="keywords">NPS</keyword>). </li><li>There is a proposal to simplify the capital gains <keyword id="6383566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="taxation" source="Orion">taxation</keyword> structure by introducing a uniform holding period across domestic equities and <keyword id="6357979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="Orion">mutual funds</keyword>. </li><li>Providing relief from double taxation on dividends is anticipated to receive positive feedback from the <keyword id="31671" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>. </li></ul>The FY 2025 budget is around the corner and it is expected that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will fulfil some of the wishes of both the industry and the common people. A report by <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="keywords">ICRA</keyword> analytics lists down some changes they foresee when it comes to taxation and other investment products. Taxation The persistent call for the removal of the security transaction tax (<keyword id="20204742" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stt" source="keywords">STT</keyword>) in financial markets has gained momentum in recent years, and as GST collections have risen, this demand has once again become a focal point. The potential elimination of STT is seen as a measure to attract more investors to participate in domestic equity markets. Another significant concern in the taxation landscape is the issue of double taxation on dividends. Under the current system, companies pay taxes on their profits, and simultaneously, the government levies additional taxes on dividends in the hands of shareholders. This results in double taxation on dividends. Addressing this issue by providing relief from double taxation on dividends is anticipated to receive positive feedback from the markets. <keyword id="6354432" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pension" source="Orion">Pension</keyword> and <keyword id="35450" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="insurance" source="Orion">Insurance</keyword> In the domain of pension and insurance, there is a proposal to raise the minimum pension floor for unorganised sector workers under the Atal Pension Yojana (APY). The rationale behind this proposal is that the current pension amount may not attract enough potential subscribers to enrol in the scheme. Additionally, there is a suggestion to grant tax-free status to annuity income from the National Pension Scheme (NPS). This move is particularly crucial as senior citizens heavily rely on annuity income during their retirement years. Considering the rise in medical expenses and the financial well-being of senior citizens, providing tax-free status to annuity income is seen as a step towards supporting this demographic. Further, proposing a distinct tax deduction for life insurance premiums, separate from Section 80C, could boost the adoption of insurance products, encouraging people to secure their family's financial future through life insurance investments. Furthermore, there is a recommendation for the government to review the 18% Goods and Services Tax (GST) imposed on health insurance policies. Markets In the financial markets, one of the pressing issues is the need for a comprehensive policy on cryptocurrency regulation. With the rising popularity and usage of cryptocurrencies, a regulatory framework is considered essential to ensure orderly and secure participation in the crypto market. Another area of interest is the potential reintroduction of sovereign green bonds in the budget. Sovereign green bonds play a crucial role in addressing the funding requirements for sectors like wind, power, and hydropower, promoting sustainable investments. Additionally, there is speculation about the allocation of a significant capital outlay for an Energy Transition Fund. The focus of this fund would be on new-age fuels such as green hydrogen, ethanol, and other biofuels, aligning with the government's emphasis on energy transition and net-zero objectives. Mutual Funds Within the mutual funds sector, there are several proposals to address taxation-related disparities and encourage a more investor-friendly environment. There is a call for parity in taxation between equity mutual funds and Unit Linked Insurance Plans (ULIPs). Achieving parity between equity Fund of Fund and equity-oriented mutual funds for taxation is also under consideration. Furthermore, there is a proposal to simplify the capital gains taxation structure by introducing a uniform holding period across domestic equities and mutual funds. This move is expected to enhance compliance and streamline the tax treatment for investors. Lastly, there is a suggestion to revisit the tax changes introduced for debt funds last year. The amendment, while creating a level playing field between bank deposits and debt mutual funds, inadvertently affected certain categories of funds. However, a depositor in fixed deposits secures guaranteed returns regardless of fluctuations in interest rates, whereas an investor in debt funds is susceptible to both interest rate fluctuations and credit risk in the event of issuer defaults. Moreover, the elimination of the previous indexation benefit adversely impacted the tax-friendliness of global equity funds, equity fund of funds, gold funds, and hybrid funds with less than 35% equity exposure. Consequently, there is a possibility of revisiting the tax changes to address these issues. This revision aims to address unintended consequences and restore a tax-friendly environment for investors.

Budget 2024 expectations: From removal of security transaction tax to sovereign green bonds

<ul><li>The Indian government released its second tranche of <keyword id="2754241" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sovereign-gold-bonds" source="Orion">sovereign gold bonds</keyword> at a price of ₹5,873/gm with 8 year tenure.</li><li>The tranche opened on September 11 and will close on September 15.</li><li><keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">Gold prices</keyword> are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, but a hazy macroeconomic picture offers tailwinds for growth, say analysts.</li><li>Investors must buy on dips to accumulate the risk-reducing role in uncertain times, analysts say </li></ul>Gold prices have been rising for most of 2023 with a few dips since March. As the yellow metal’s value oscillated between increased risk aversion and higher opportunity cost of holding gold and US economic resilience — experts advise investors to remain strong on gold and buy on dips. The Indian government has released its second tranche of 2023’s sovereign gold bonds at a price of ₹5,873 per gram (effective after ₹50 digital payment discount) with an eight year tenure. For those intending to go long on gold, this is a good opportunity, say analysts, as Monday’s prices hovered at around ₹60,000 per 10 gms. “These bonds offer annual returns of 2.5%, which serve to balance their portfolio over time. However, investors are encouraged to adopt a staggered approach when acquiring sovereign bonds. By doing so, they can accumulate gold at varying price points,” Jateen Trivedi, VP of research at LKP Securities told Business Insider India. While the government assures the holding of the grammage in gold, its returns depend upon the prevailing gold price of time. On redemption, capital gains are not charged on these bonds to the investor — irrespective of the quantum of gains earned by the investor. If the bonds are sold in the secondary market, they will either be charged short-term or long-term capital gains tax as per the time sold. “Retail investors considering taxation benefits may consider sovereign bonds in place of Gold ETFs. Meanwhile both options are favorable as compared to investment in physical gold in terms of lower capital investment and taxation purpose,” said Naveen Mathur, director of commodities &amp; currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. The tranche opened on September 11 and will close on September 15. <div type="image" title="gold prices" msid="103595748" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Source: Business Insider India &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Range-bound in the near term International gold prices have been on a backfoot for most of August. But they had had a headwind in the form of US 10-year inflation-protected treasuries which touched 2% for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis starting the month at 1.6%, said Quantum Mutual Fund in its September outlook. “Long term US treasury yields declined on comments from a host of Federal Reserve officials. They signalled a pause in the central bank rate hike cycle,” said a report by ICICI Securities. As interest rates harden, gold prices will rise as a safety bet, and if they remain steady or rate cuts come into the picture, they would fall. In the near term, analysts believe that multiple macroeconomic factors might keep a lid on prices and remain rangebound for the foreseeable future till clarity emerges on the global growth and inflation fronts. “Investors can use a buy on dips strategy to build a 15-20% allocation to gold which can play a risk-reducing role during the current macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as enhance returns in case of a growth setback where the Fed is forced to cut rates even while inflation is high,” said Ghazal Jain, fund manager of alternative investments, Quantum Mutual Fund. With or without interest rate movements, the US economy has been on a hard path as pandemic era savings are dwindling and rising credit card debt. Gold’s shine remains high as a safe bet as few analysts have chosen to change their annual outlook on gold prices.

Take a staggered approach to buy sovereign gold bonds

The risk to <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s sovereign rating from external pressures is limited, said <keyword id="125045" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="Orion">Fitch Ratings</keyword> on Wednesday. In its latest report, Fitch Ratings said India's external buffers appear sufficient to cushion risks associated with the rapid monetary policy tightening in the US and high global commodity prices. "External finances are becoming less of a strength in India's credit profile, but we expect foreign-exchange reserves to remain robust and India's current-account deficit to be contained at a sustainable level," Fitch Ratings said. According to the credit rating agency, public finances are the key driver of the rating and are only modestly affected by these developments, particularly as India is relatively insulated from global volatility due to the sovereign's limited reliance on external financing. India's foreign reserves fell by almost $101 billion in January-September 2022, but are still large at around $533 billion. The decline has reversed much of the reserve accumulation that occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic and reflects valuation effects, a widening current-account deficit, and some intervention by the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) to support the Indian rupee's exchange rate. The RBI has attributed about two-thirds of the decline to valuation effects. According to Fitch Ratings, India's forex reserve cover remains strong at about 8.9 months of imports in September. "This is higher than during the "taper tantrum" in 2013, when it stood at about 6.5 months, and offers the authorities scope to utilise reserves to smooth periods of external stress," Fitch Ratings said. Large reserves also provide reassurance about debt repayment capacity. Short-term external debt due is equivalent to only about 24 per cent of total reserves. Gross external debt stood at 18.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2Q22, which is low compared with the median of 72 per cent for '<keyword id="147629" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="bbb" source="Orion">BBB</keyword>' rated sovereigns in 2021. Sovereign exposures are small, with only about four per cent of GDP in primarily multilateral financing. Foreign investor holdings of domestic sovereign debt represent under two per cent of the total, reducing the risk of spillovers to the wider market should they seek to reduce their exposure, Fitch Ratings said. The credit rating agency forecast India's current-account deficit in the fiscal year ending March 2023 (FY23) to reach 3.4 per cent of GDP, from 1.2 per cent in FY22. Imports have surged on strong domestic demand growth and high oil and coal prices. Meanwhile, export growth has moderated from the fast pace seen in January-June 2022, amid declines in prices for steel, iron ore and agricultural products. Recessions in key European and US export markets will weigh on near-term export prospects. "However, we forecast the current-account deficit to narrow in FY24, to 2.0 per cent of GDP, as easing global energy prices will also dampen imports. Our robust medium-term economic growth outlook on India should facilitate the financing of the deficit, particularly from <keyword id="44528" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fdi" source="Orion">FDI</keyword>," the report notes. According to Fitch Ratings, the widening of the current account deficit partly reflects a run-down in household savings, which rose markedly during the pandemic. "Nonetheless, we expect India's current-account deficit will be wider in the next few years than it was in the period prior to the pandemic. This is partly because we see fiscal deficits remaining above pre-pandemic levels, with only gradual consolidation, amid increased public capex spending," Fitch Ratings said. According to the credit rating agency, the RBI will continue to use reserves to manage exchange-rate volatility and this will probably erode reserve buffers further in the near term, but the impact will depend on the scale and duration of intervention. Domestic factors are the primary driver of the RBI's current monetary policy tightening. "However, risks to our current forecast that India's repo rate will peak at 6 per cent in FY24 are skewed to the upside, as there is a significant chance of rate hikes in the US beyond those in our assumptions, which could put further downward pressure on the rupee and increase imported price inflation," Fitch Ratings said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/vodafone-idea-board-to-meet-on-october-21-to-consider-fundraising-via-convertible-debentures/articleshow/94963947.cms">Vodafone Idea board to meet on October 21 to consider fundraising via convertible debentures</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/ultratech-cements-profit-tumbles-42-yoy-to-756-crore-due-to-higher-power-raw-material-costs/articleshow/94964556.cms">UltraTech Cement’s profit tumbles 42% YoY to ₹756 crore due to higher power, raw material costs</a>

Risk to India's sovereign rating from external pressures is limited: Fitch

<ul><li>Under more severe economic conditions, a few factors could have the potential to put pressure on its BBB-/Stable/A-3 sovereign ratings on <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>, <keyword id="3414353" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-ratings" source="Orion">S&amp;P Global Ratings</keyword> said.</li><li>The rating agency predicted India's current account deficit to go up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) this fiscal from 1.6 per cent of GDP last year owing to increased import bills.</li><li>At the same time, the rise in rates is pushing up the cost of government funding. </li></ul>India is facing a mixture of factors that may shake its sovereign credit metrics and amid external turbulence, its foreign exchange reserves are falling, while the current account deficit is rising, said <keyword id="3460448" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global" source="Orion">S&amp;P Global</keyword> Ratings on Wednesday. Under more severe economic conditions, a few factors could have the potential to put pressure on its BBB-/Stable/A-3 sovereign ratings on India, S&amp;P Global Ratings said. While the Indian economy is battling inflation and tightening financial conditions both at home and globally, the strong economic growth is counterbalancing the high fiscal deficits and debt burdens. India's sound external balance sheet helps to buffer against global market turbulence, the report said. The rating agency predicted India's current account deficit to go up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) this fiscal from 1.6 per cent of GDP last year owing to increased import bills. According to S&amp;P Global, if the commodity prices stabilise at the current levels through 2023 and decline further after that, then the pressure on the current account will reduce gradually through fiscal 2026. "Nevertheless, if its current account deficit remains higher for longer, compared with our current base case forecasts, that would impinge on India's external balance sheet," the report notes. Although India is a modest net external creditor currently, it may return to a small net external debt position. However, this contingency alone is unlikely to add material downside pressure to our sovereign ratings on India. India is also likely to continue benefiting from the active use of its currency in international transactions and the government's ability to fund itself via a deep local currency debt market, the report said. Expecting the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) policy rate to end fiscal 2023 at 5.9 per cent, the report said higher rates and faster price increases could soften near-term growth momentum. At the same time, the rise in rates is pushing up the cost of government funding. So far this year, the yield on the Indian government's two-year bonds has risen by about 230 basis points (bps) in the secondary market, to around 7.3 per cent, S&amp;P Global said. A stress scenario assuming consumer price inflation and benchmark interest rates surpassing our current forecasts by 300 bps and 250 bps, respectively, for an extended period of time, could put more pressure on the sovereign ratings, the report said. "We believe a deeper global economic slowdown than we currently anticipate could have an adverse impact on India's economic performance in fiscals 2023 and 2024. Potential channels of risk for India include tighter global monetary conditions, prolonged high inflation, and poor investment or consumer sentiment both at home and abroad," said S&amp;P Global. The credit rating agency also said given Indian economy is domestic-oriented, a downshift for an extended time will not happen. "Still, in the event of a prolonged downturn in real and nominal GDP growth, material downward pressure on the sovereign ratings could emerge, especially if large government deficits are left unchecked," S&amp;P Global said. India's general government deficits average well above 7 per cent of GDP annually, and its debt stock stands at about 86 per cent of GDP on a net basis. These metrics, along with its high-interest burden, contribute to very weak assessments of India's fiscal health, S&amp;P Global said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/ready-to-talk-with-startups-to-address-their-concerns-and-prevent-them-from-moving-out-of-india-sitharaman/articleshow/94800585.cms">Ready to talk with startups to address their concerns and prevent them from moving out of India: Sitharaman</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rupee-falls-14-paise-to-82-35-against-us-dollar-in-early-trade/articleshow/94807019.cms">Rupee falls 14 paise to 82.35 against US dollar in early trade</a>

Mixture of factors may shake India's sovereign ratings: S&P Global

<ul><li><keyword id="122724" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-securities" source="Orion">Government securities</keyword> are considered among the safest investment options due to the sovereign guarantee attached to them. </li><li>Most brokers allow trading of existing <keyword id="6371629" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="g-secs" source="Orion">G-secs</keyword> on the secondary market through their platforms.</li><li>Investing in G-sec-focused mutual funds allows a diversified portfolio within Government securities and low-ticket investments. </li></ul>Government securities, commonly known as G-secs, are <keyword id="166233" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="debt-instruments" source="Orion">debt instruments</keyword> issued by the Government of India to raise capital. These securities serve as a way for the government to borrow money from the public or institutions. G-secs come with fixed <keyword id="6371181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="Orion">interest rates</keyword> and predetermined maturity dates. They are considered among the safest investment options due to the sovereign guarantee attached to them, ensuring repayment of the principal amount and interest upon maturity. The credit risk on G-secs is thus minimal. Government bonds also boast high liquidity and can be traded easily in the secondary market. This flexibility provides an opportunity to earn improved returns on the bonds and allows for exiting at any desired time before the maturity date as well. How G-secs work Investing in g-secs involves purchasing these bonds at face value, and the interest, also known as the coupon, is paid periodically, typically semi-annually or annually, until the maturity date. The interest rates on g-secs are influenced by various factors, including market demand, inflation, and the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>). Consequently, the prices of G-secs fluctuate inversely with the prevailing interest rates in the market. When interest rates rise, the value of existing G-secs falls, and vice versa. These securities are traded in the primary and secondary markets. In the primary market, they are directly issued by the government through auctions, while in the secondary market, they are bought and sold among investors. How to invest G-secs are available in various tenures, ranging from short-term (Treasury bills) to long-term (Government bonds). The Retail Direct Scheme by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rolled out in 2021 enables individual investors to directly invest in government securities without requiring intermediaries such as brokers or mutual funds. The NSE goBID platform allows retail investors to participate in auctions for new G-sec issuances through your broker. It offers a non-competitive bidding process, meaning you specify your desired amount, and if your bid is accepted, you'll get allotted securities at the cut-off price. Most brokers allow trading of existing G-secs on the secondary market through their platforms. This offers flexibility to choose specific securities and exit positions when needed. Steps to invest `Here are the steps to invest in G-secs. <ol><li>Log in to your brokerage account </li><li>Navigate to the bids section: Locate and click on the "Bids" tab or section within the platform.</li><li>Select government securities: Once in the Bids section, find and select the option for "Govt. securities."</li><li>Initiate the bid: Look for the option to "Place bid" and click on it.</li><li>Enter bid Amount: Input the specific amount you wish to bid for the government securities.</li><li>Finalise the bid: After entering the amount, confirm the bid by clicking on the "Place bid" button.</li></ol>Investing in G-secs through the mutual fund route One can also take the mutual funds route to invest in G-secs. “Investing in G-sec focused mutual funds allows a diversified portfolio within Government securities and low ticket investments,” says Marzban Irani, chief investment officer, fixed income, LIC Mutual Fund. This can be suitable for passive investors or those seeking exposure without actively managing individual bonds. “It is always easy for investors to buy subscription or redemption requests in a mutual fund, compared to looking out to buy or sell securities in the fixed income market. Also, one may buy and hold but in between prices can fluctuate. Many people may not understand the drivers of those price fluctuations,” says Pankaj Pathak, fund manager, fixed income, Quantum AMC. Interest rate risks G-secs do carry one particular risk, that of interest rate fluctuations in the broader market. When rates rise, existing G-Secs with lower rates lose value compared to newer securities offering higher rates. Conversely, falling rates increase demand for older G-Secs, potentially raising their value. Longer-term G-Secs are more prone to rate change risks than short-term ones. Investors holding G-Secs until maturity aren't affected by price fluctuations but can lose potential earnings if rates rise after purchase. “A sudden increase in interest rate can impact return. So one is advised to invest into G Secs only for long-term goals,” says Abhishek Kumar, founder and chief<a href="https://business.outlookindia.com/invest/investment"> </a>investment advisor at SahajMoney, a financial planning firm. Is this a good time to invest? Government securities (G-Secs) typically attract conservative investors seeking a steady income from their investments. Moreover, investors often include G-Secs in their portfolio's debt allocation, which comprises diverse assets like equities, fixed-income instruments, and safe havens such as gold. At present, we are at the peak of the interest rate hike cycle. Developed economies like the US are expecting rate cuts going ahead in 2024. On the domestic front, the core inflation seems to be under control. “The interest rates are holding steady and might even start going down from the second half of next year,” says Kumar. So, going forward, retail investors can expect to improve their returns on G Sec investments. Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

A case for investing in Government securities

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> using the ruble to pay interest on its US dollar bonds would constitute a <keyword id="13399269" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sovereign-default" source="Orion">sovereign default</keyword>, Fitch says. </li><li>Russia is facing a Wednesday deadline to make $117 million in interest payments on two US dollar bond coupons. </li></ul>Russia using <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/rub-usd">rubles</a> to make payments on US dollar bond coupons would constitute a sovereign default following a grace period, <keyword id="12224692" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="Orion">Fitch Ratings</keyword> said Wednesday. Russia is facing a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-debt-default-ukraine-war-global-economy-financial-system-europe-2022-3">Wednesday deadline to pay $117 million</a> worth of interest payments on two US dollar bonds. The country has been hit with sanctions by the US and its Western allies for invading <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword>, essentially cutting Moscow off from about of its $640 billion worth of foreign currency reserves, a move that makes it difficult for the country to service its debts. A "payment in local currency of Russia's US dollar Eurobond coupons due on 16 March would, if it were to occur, constitute a sovereign default, on expiry of the 30-day grace period," said <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/russia-understanding-potential-sovereign-default-events-15-03-2022">Fitch in a statement</a>. Russia addressing its debt obligations in rubles would prompt Fitch to downgrade the ratings on the bonds to a "D" if the coupon payments aren't made in US dollars by the end of the grace period that runs through mid-April. Fitch would also cut Russia's long-term foreign-currency rating to a 'Restricted Default' level. Fitch said a "forced redenomination" of payment obligations would line up with its March 9 downgrade of Russia's credit rating to "C" earlier this month as it <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-ukraine-war-invasion-moodys-fitch-credit-rating-markets-economy-2022-3">anticipated an "imminent" default</a>. That downgrade was Fitch's second against Russia in seven days, with the first cut <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/fitch-warns-a-russian-debt-default-is-imminent-as-it-cuts-the-countrys-credit-rating-again/articleshow/90102585.cms">sending the credit rating to junk status</a>. The value of Russia's currency sank after Moscow launched its war against Ukraine in late February, leaving the ruble worth less than a penny against the greenback.

Russia will be considered in default if it uses rubles to make payments on its US dollar bonds, Fitch Ratings says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The credit ratings of US banks have come under the spotlight recently amid the banking crisis.</li><li>SVB tried to avoid a ratings downgrade by selling bonds, but that backfired and caused a bank run.</li></ul>Right under the big, bold headlines of the banking crisis, there's usually mention of banks' credit ratings.On Monday, for example, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/moodys-silicon-valley-bank-outlook-signature-failure-economy-downgrade-system-2023-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Moody's downgraded its outlook</a> for the entire US banking sector while placing the ratings of six of the country's banks — including <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/svb-collapse-first-republic-western-alliance-moodys-downgrade-banking-crisis-2023-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">First Republic and Western Alliance</a> — under review for a downgrade.As panic shoots across the banking sector, US banks' credit ratings have come under the spotlight, and investors are zooming in on how these institutions are graded.First things first, who are these ratings agencies?Moody's, S&amp;P Global, and Fitch are three big credit ratings agencies that <a href="https://www.ig.com/sg/trading-strategies/credit-rating-agencies--everything-you-need-to-know-191218" target="_blank" rel="noopener">control</a><a href="https://www.ig.com/sg/trading-strategies/credit-rating-agencies--everything-you-need-to-know-191218" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> about 95% of the credit ratings</a> in the financial markets. They assess the creditworthiness of a company or a country's sovereign bonds, so a downgrade — or, a negative read of the creditworthiness — is significant.Each of the big three agencies expresses credit ratings on a different scale, but they are generally in the form of letters in the alphabet. They go from AAA to D at <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/about/intro-to-credit-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">S&amp;P Global</a> and <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/products/rating-definitions#ratings-scales" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fitch,</a> to AAA to C at <a href="https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/productattachments/ap075378_1_1408_ki.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Moody's.</a>This is not a new concept. In fact, during the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-caused-the-great-recession">global financial crisis</a>, credit ratings agencies had been blasted for giving <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alliancebernstein-on-credit-ratings-2015-4">better ratings to risky mortgage-backed securities and collateralized loans</a>.But they are still widely followed by investors."Ratings are not perfect," Eugene Grinberg, the CEO of SOLVE, a market data provider for fixed-income securities, told Insider. "But they do still matter since they allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between two issuers."This is because the financials of companies are complex and investors can't get a fuller picture from these alone."Rating agencies track issuers for many years and are able to identify changes in company performance that may not be evident from their financial statements alone," Grinberg added.<h2>What are credit ratings and why do they matter for banks?</h2>Companies raise funds for expansion or new ventures via fundraising. To raise funds, they can either issue equity — i.e. a stake in the company — or issue debt. One way to issue debt is through bonds — an instrument which is repayable after a set period and one that accrues interest in pre-set installments. If a company face troubles, investors could stop receiving interest payments and risk their principal investments in the bonds — constituting a default. Credit ratings agencies provide independent assessments of the risk that this could happen.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-are-junk-bonds">Depending on the rating,</a> a bond can be classified as an investment-grade or speculative-grade investment. A so-called junk bond falls below the investment-grade credit rating at various credit agencies.Credit ratings agencies have their own methodology when determining creditworthiness — which explains why not all agencies may downgrade a company's debt at the same time. Similarly, a company will generally have to demonstrate that it has a lower risk of default to get an upgrade."Rating agencies have a few thresholds in terms of financial ratios that an issuer needs to pass to get an upgrade. Each ratio is not just historical but projected in the next one year ahead," Warut Promboon, managing partner at Hong Kong-based research firm Bondcritic, told Insider. So, the company management needs a plan to convince rating agencies they will be able to pass the thresholds within a year to get an upgrade, he added.Many metrics — such as management and corporate governance — are also qualitative, "so it is also about management looking good in the agency's eyes," he added.<h2>What happened with SVB's botched capital call?</h2>A downgrade to junk status by a credit ratings agency is serious business as it is not just reputational damage for companies that could impact investor confidence, but — just like how <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-is-a-credit-score">personal credit scores</a> work — it also means companies have to pay out a higher interest rate to investors because they are now deemed to be riskier.It is exactly the threat of downgrade that contributed to Silicon Valley Bank's demise, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/silicon-valley-banks-demise-began-with-downgrade-threat-sources-2023-03-11/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a> reported on March 11, citing two people familiar with the situation.Silicon Valley Bank had parked much of its customers' deposits into bonds because its tech-focused customers didn't need a lot of loans during the tech boom during the pandemic. But as the industry started to draw down on deposits amid a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-downturn-tech-industry-layoffs-stock-plunge-funding-slowdown-2022-6">slowdown in the sector,</a> Silicon Valley Bank found itself in a position where it had to sell some assets to meet customers' withdrawal requests. Moody's communicated to the bank that it was preparing to downgrade its rating as the value of its bonds was falling due to rising interest rates, per Reuters. To avoid the downgrade, Silicon Valley Bank sold a bond portfolio. However, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-bank-failure-what-happened-bank-run-explained-2023-3">bonds it could readily sell have lost value</a> due to the Federal Reserve's <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">aggressive rate hikes</a> over the past year — because the value of the bonds moves inversely to interest rates.The bank then disclosed it was facing a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/svb-failure-what-the-hell-happened-2023-3">$1.8 billion loss</a> on the sale and then tried to recoup the losses by trying to sell stock and issuing related securities that would generate higher returns.But these actions <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/svb-silicon-valley-bank-startups-worry-run-pull-accounts-2023-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">triggered concerns</a> among tech VCs and founders about Silicon Valley Bank's financial stability, spurring an old-fashioned bank run and sparking fears of contagion in the banking sector, particularly in smaller, regional banks.Silicon Valley Bank was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/svb-failure-what-the-hell-happened-2023-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">shut down by regulators</a> on Friday, but not before spooked depositors also made a run on deposits at crypto-friendly <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/signature-bank-shut-down-by-regulators-depositors-bailed-out-2023-3">Signature Bank, New York,</a> which faced a similar fate on Sunday.Consumers are now <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/svb-collapse-silicon-bank-valley-jpmorgan-wall-street-depositors-2023-3?_ga=2.202270355.366464223.1678856528-1306638491.1633320106">moving their deposits from smaller to larger banks</a>, such as Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2b580939-a4b6-48d2-8eb6-629b4cb1e06c" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Financial Times</a> reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.<h2>First Republic has been downgraded to junk. Now what?</h2>Fears of the crisis spreading have also hit the credit ratings of First Republic Bank.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/svb-first-republic-bank-credit-ratings-downgrade-junk-fitch-frc-2023-3" rel="">Ratings agencies S&amp;P Global and Fitch</a> cut First Republic's credit rating to junk status on Wednesday over concerns that depositors could pull funds from the lender."We believe the risk of deposit outflows is elevated at First Republic Bank despite the actions of federal banking regulators and the bank actively increasing its borrowing availability to mitigate risk associated with the bank failures over the last week," <a href="https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/2960193" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">wrote S&amp;P Global Ratings analysts Nicholas Wetzel and Rian Pressman</a>. First Republic Bank is now <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/svb-crisis-first-republic-bank-possible-sale-ratings-junk-2023-3">considering various options</a> —including a sale – <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-15/first-republic-bank-is-said-to-weigh-options-including-a-sale" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Bloomberg</a> reported Wednesday, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The San Francisco-based lender is also looking at options to boost liquidity, per the news outlet.

How credit ratings are playing a key role in the unfolding banking crisis

Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Friday said that 2022 saw a spike in the annual sovereign bond defaults with seven countries defaulting on repayments. In 2023, there were two sovereign defaults - Argentina and Mozambique. In a report, Moody's said the year 2022 saw the highest number of defaults since 1983. "Seven sovereigns defaulted during the year, namely <keyword id="6360719" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="mali" source="Orion">Mali</keyword> (Caa2 stable), Russia (rating withdrawn), Sri Lanka (Ca stable), Belarus (Ca negative), El Salvador (Caa3 stable), Ukraine (Ca stable) and <keyword id="60252" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="ghana" source="Orion">Ghana</keyword> (Ca stable)," the report states. "The annual sovereign bond default rate jumped to nearly 5 per cent in 2022, more than five times the average default rate in 1983-2022. There have been two defaults, by the governments of Argentina (Ca stable) and Mozambique (Caa2 positive), in 2023 to date," Moody's said. As more emerging and frontier market sovereigns face credit stress amid a tightening monetary environment post-pandemic, the share of Caa-C-rated sovereigns has increased, said <keyword id="2552053" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="claire-li" source="Orion">Claire Li</keyword>, Vice President <keyword id="191571" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="senior-analyst" source="Orion">Senior Analyst</keyword>, Credit Strategy and Research. According to Li, a growing share of sovereign ratings at the lower end of the rating distribution signals elevated default risk. "Economies with significant financing requirements that are heavily dependent on external funding and holding a considerable amount of foreign currency-denominated public debt, with low foreign exchange reserves, are among the most vulnerable," she added. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/nclt-grants-90-days-extension-to-future-retail-for-concluding-insolvency/articleshow/99489275.cms">NCLT grants 90 days extension to Future Retail for concluding insolvency</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/scientists-launch-juice-mission-to-explore-jupiters-icy-moons/articleshow/99489290.cms">Scientists launch JUICE mission to explore Jupiter's icy moons</a>

Highest sovereign defaults in 2022, two in 2023: Moody's

In an analysis by <keyword id="125045" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="Orion">Fitch Ratings</keyword>, Indian banks' <keyword id="19445551" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="viability-ratings" source="Orion">Viability Ratings</keyword> (VR) are slated to experience a boost from an enhanced operational landscape and amplified performance in the foreseeable future. Fitch foresees the continuation of robust Viability Ratings (VR) for Indian banks, largely propelled by the bolstering operating conditions and sustained financial performance in the short run. The <keyword id="19452785" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="issuer-default-ratings" source="Orion">Issuer Default Ratings</keyword> (<keyword id="133785" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IDRs" source="Orion">IDRs</keyword>) are expected to maintain a steady course across banks. The IDR pivots on Fitch's anticipation of exceptional support from the Indian sovereign (BBB-/Stable) if the need arises. Notably, two Indian banks' VRs received upgrades in 2023. There's potential for upward adjustments for several banks, buoyed by an expectation of maintaining the current positive financial performance, particularly in asset quality and earnings. The revision of the operating environment score from 'bb' to 'bb+' has significantly contributed to supporting Fitch's overall assessment. The Viability Ratings of Indian banks are diversified, with five out of eight placed within the 'bb' category. This placement underlines a moderate level of financial strength. On the other hand, the remaining three banks possess VRs in the 'b' category, a status influenced by their risk profiles, past weaker financial metrics, and more vulnerable loss-absorption buffers compared to higher-rated counterparts. Fitch emphasizes that risk profiles and capitalization will significantly affect the standalone credit profiles of the banks. This aspect gains prominence amid the banks' expanding risk appetite, a crucial area under evaluation for their individual creditworthiness. (ANI)

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