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<keyword id="22362521" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tourists-travellers" source="keywords">Tourists Travellers</keyword> from India have taken to <keyword id="20166206" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-travel" source="keywords">international travel</keyword> with newfound enthusiasm over the past two years, a new report by ride-hailing platform <keyword id="19895382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uber" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Uber" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Uber">Uber</keyword> revealed on Wednesday. Indians travelled close to 1,000 cities across 68 countries significantly broadening their horizons, the report revealed. Their top destinations, however, remained consistent in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. As per the report the <keyword id="22362520" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="summer-holiday-period" source="keywords">summer holiday period</keyword> when schools and colleges break, emerged as the prime time for these adventures for Indians. Interestingly, it said May 2023 outpaced June 2022 as the most popular month for <keyword id="21753645" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="overseas-travel" source="keywords">overseas travel</keyword>, indicating a shift in vacation timing. While abroad, Indians traveled longer distances, averaging 25 per cent more distance than their trips back home. Their Uber journeys spanned 21 different products, from premium electric vehicles like Comfort Electric to multimodal transit options that integrate trains and other mass transit modes, along with the ubiquitous UberX. The report underscores a significant uptick in the number of Indians using Uber internationally, with 2023 seeing Indian travellers ranking second only to Americans in terms of app usage abroad. During the ongoing summer travel season, Indians are expected to cross records set in the previous years, the report predicted. Moreover, many countries frequented by Indians support peer-to-peer ridesharing, allowing individuals to use their personal vehicles for Uber rides. This not only highlights the global appeal of the <keyword id="19913761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gig-economy" source="keywords">gig economy</keyword> but also showcases the country's adaptability and enthusiasm for diverse transportation options, the report noted. Commenting on the trend, Prabhjeet Singh, President, Uber India and <keyword id="19897710" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="south-asia" source="keywords">South Asia</keyword>, said, "Indians have been breaking all travel records over the past couple of years, and it's heartwarming to see how Uber continues to be their trusted last-mile partner in these travels. Be it the familiarity when landing at an airport in a new city or the safety when riding late at night, it's a huge mark of trust for us to see Indians book an Uber for their overseas travels."

Indians are travelling abroad like never before: Uber study

<keyword id="3001" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pakistan" source="Orion">Pakistan</keyword> is <keyword id="52011" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="south-asia" source="Orion">South Asia</keyword>'s <keyword id="16104235" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="weakest-economy" source="Orion">weakest economy</keyword>, and it will take a herculean effort to pull the country out of poverty, reported Islam Khabar. Pakistan is in the news for its economic meltdown amid natural disasters, food shortages, and poverty. Pakistan had unprecedented floods in July last year, devastating large swathes of farmlands. The forex reserves in the country which hit a new low of USD 4.6 billion would only be enough to pay for foreign import bills for three weeks. The analysts put Pakistan's need for relief at USD 33 billion. The world helped then and has renewed its pledge. Moved by the intervention by the UN Secretary-General, better-off nations have come forward with generous commitments of around USD 10 billion. Sensing the urgency, friends including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have chipped in with four billion dollars this month, reported Islam Khabar. It has been six months since the flood waters ebbed. But on-land traveller (SF Aizaduddin, Dawn January 11, 2023) writes that they remain underwater, with no sign of water management or renewed cultivation. It is understandable up to a point, though. But after so many months, there is an acute food shortage. Imagine the country with one of the world's most irrigated fertile wheat-growing land has a shortage of flour and no money to import it. Market reports say a PKR 1200 bag of 20 kg of flour has shot up to PKR 3,00, reported Islam Khabar. Dragging talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) put PKR at three months low. The Express Tribune (January 12, 2023) quoted a currency exchange expert, "The Pakistrupee's fair value is the one prevailing in the black market at Rs 260-270 to a dollar. The government has artificially kept the currency overvalued. It should let market forces determine the exchange rate meet an IMF's condition." Unsurprisingly, warning of another global recession, the World Bank on January 13, 2023 forecasted Pakistan's economic growth to slow further to two per cent during the current year -- down by two percentage points from its June 2022 estimate, reported Islam Khabar. The new excuse is climate change as if only Pakistan is affected. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif says the country will need USD 16.3 billion over the next three years for the initial efforts to rebuild and improve its ability to withstand climate change. Sharifs earlier called out Imran Khan for 'begging'. Now Khan is returning the same compliment. He had globe-trotted with a begging bowl, now he asks why Sharif 'wasted' money on going to the Geneva conference where aid pledges were made. 'Begging' continues, no matter who rules Pakistan. But, the country fails to acknowledge the damage caused by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to the fragile Himalayas in Gilgit-Baltistan, reported Islam Khabar. Farmers are reluctant to increase the area under wheat cultivation because of the delay in the announcement of support prices. They are demanding an "Agri-emergency" due to fertiliser shortage and weak crop outlook. Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI) President Khalid Mehmood Khokhar said instead of boosting domestic wheat production, the government was "supporting farmers of other countries by buying the commodity at higher prices from them," reported Islam Khabar. In a report, it said Pakistan's declining economic output was also bringing down the regional growth rate. It forecast Pakistan's GDP growth rate to improve to 3.2 per cent in 2024, which would be lower than the earlier estimate of 4.2 per cent. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/investment-tips-from-indias-super-rich/slidelist/97062541.cms" style="">India super rich got richer, here’s is where they are parking their money</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/finance-minister-the-other-brains-behind-the-union-budget-who-are-burning-the-midnight-oil/articleshow/97061266.cms" style="">Finance Minister &amp; the other brains behind the Union Budget who are burning the midnight oil</a>

Pakistan is South Asia's weakest economy: World Bank report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US has played a key role in countering China in the South China Sea.</li><li>But any intensified US efforts could trigger a confrontation, experts told BI.</li></ul>The US has played an active security role in the South China Sea in recent years, but with China increasingly confrontational in the region, things could come to a head.US ships and aircraft have repeatedly operated within the wide expanse claimed by China to assert international rights to navigation, carried out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/US7thFleet/status/1834396679216181394">military</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/indopacom/status/1836389721502568770?s=46&amp;t=o-gfid_uWzVLqbUuvoCCsg">exercises</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1834577777598894323">with</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836163226528350500">regional</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1835438447907295450">allies</a>, and <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/01/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-the-united-states-and-the-philippines/">reaffirmed</a> its <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3836245/track-record-and-trajectory-us-philippine-defense-ties-since-2021-remarks-by-as/">commitments</a> to regional partners.It has also <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836525608056033674">helped</a> Southeast Asian countries to <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828775660015522069">modernize</a> their militaries and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828653505885938023">deepen</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836666038475489463">ties</a> with countries pursuing similar security goals.However, some Asia regional analysts warn that any further attempt to intensify US efforts in the contested waters could agitate regional partners, trigger China's ire, and backfire on the US and its partners."The last thing that any Southeast Asian country wants is for this to spill over into an active conflict," Bill Hayton, an associate fellow with Chatham House's Asia-Pacific program, told Business Insider.On the other hand, a US pullback would enable China to bully its smaller neighbors in ways that could also trigger a military clash.They "want a Goldilocks situation in the South China Sea — not too hot, not too cold," he added.<div type="image" title="A China Coast Guard ship (R) sailed past the Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Cape Engaño (L) during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea on August 26, 2024." height="2000" width="3000" msid="114167295" hostid="261" sizebytes="189602"></div><h2 id="9deb4483-b117-443f-9cc5-4db4f72459bc">Keeping a balance</h2>Southeast Asian leaders have tried to keep a balance between the US and China through ASEAN, a political and economic union of 10 countries with the stated <a target="_blank" href="https://asean.org/what-we-do#asean-aims">goal</a> of "promoting regional peace and stability."ASEAN held its annual summit in Laos this week, in part to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/asean-summit-laos-myanmar-south-china-sea-254fe0f7f8b484df5bdb05c0557fccd6">discuss</a> territorial tensions in the South China Sea. China has made expansive and legally dubious claims to nearly all of the sea, which is a major shipping route and boasts natural resources like fish and oil fields.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese coast guard vessels and ones from the Philippines, including one <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">encounter</a> where swords and knives were brandished and a Filipino soldier reportedly lost a thumb.Speaking at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-the-asean-summit-with-the-united-states/">ASEAN summit</a>, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Southeast Asian leaders that the US was concerned about China's "increasingly dangerous and unlawful" activities in the disputed waters."The United States will continue to support freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight in the Indo-Pacific," he added.The US is the only military with the size and sophistication to push back on China's forces, however, any US attempt to step up its role in the region could affect the delicate balance.Hunter Marston, a Ph.D. candidate in international relations at the Australian National University in the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, said all 10 ASEAN countries have their own security interests and different views about the US' role in the region.While countries that keep close ties to the US, like Singapore, the Philippines, and to some extent Vietnam, would be "very" supportive of increased US security in the region, other countries that fear a larger US military presence in the South China Sea, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and perhaps Cambodia, would be "more vocally" opposed to it, he said.Another aspect is that China's wide claims don't directly affect Indonesia and Cambodia, meaning they have less to lose.<div type="image" title="An infographic of the disputed South China Sea on January 06, 2023." height="4138" width="5697" msid="114167294" hostid="261" sizebytes="390018"></div><h2 id="1c59d1ef-370d-4010-a9b6-a8ba1510690f">A bipartisan issue</h2>Ramping up the US security role in the South China Sea without upsetting the balance of power is "a challenge that dates back to at least the Bush administration," Marston said, referring to the administration of George W. Bush.Following 9/11, the Bush administration <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41311-023-00486-0#Fn5">stepped up</a> its security involvement in the region by strengthening the US military presence there and increasing diplomatic ties with key ASEAN nations.The Obama administration then pursued a policy of strategic "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacific">rebalancing</a>," with the underlying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pafo.12115">goal</a> of preventing China from becoming the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region.The Trump administration took a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/08/from-pivot-to-defiance-american-policy-shift-in-the-south-china-sea/">harder line</a>, stepping up its freedom of navigation patrols, conducting naval exercises in the region, and at one point <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csp.navy.mil/Media/News-Admin/Article/2186392/pacific-fleet-submarines-lethal-agile-underway/">deploying</a> all of its forward-deployed nuclear attack submarines into the Western Pacific.Marston said the Biden administration has adopted elements of Obama's policy and tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Yet, China has remained undeterred in its efforts to dominate the contested islands, and has grown more aggressive in encounters with regional claimants, notably the Philippines."It's really plagued multiple administrations," Martson said.<h2 id="5c410507-89c1-4bdb-b90b-5027be104561">A polarized region</h2>Gregory B. Poling, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told BI that the South China Sea has served as a "wedge" within ASEAN because only four out of 10 countries have a direct stake in it."Frankly, a lot of them would rather the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia just give up their rights in order to make this issue go away so they can get back to trading and investing with China," he said.According to Chatham House's Hayton, increased US intervention could further split the alliance and also potentially drag the US into a conflict with China that jeopardizes Southeast Asian countries' economies.The US might be called in to help enforce <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3738629/war-with-china-a-view-from-early-2024/">freedom of navigation</a> or defend its partners in the event of a military confrontation between China and its neighbors.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">Adm. Samuel Paparo</a>, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, hinted at this last August, saying the US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels in the South China Sea following clashes with China in recent months.Even without a boosted US presence, the US could be dragged into a regional confrontation via its partners.At a minimum, Hayton said a conflict would trigger disruptions to shipping, supply lines, and supply chains and hurt the region's economic growth, "even before we start to think about military actions."A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2016_en.pdf">estimated</a> to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28048/w28048.pdf">working paper</a> by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.<h2 id="aba6b3de-fedf-479e-9f6f-ff50a1a9a19a">Escalating tensions</h2>Tensions in the region have been escalating over the past few months, especially between China and the Philippines.A month after the armed encounter, China's largest coastguard vessel <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijings-monster-coastguard-ship-ramps-up-tensions-south-china-sea-2024-7">dropped anchor</a> in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and in August, a Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1828077854539874574">said</a> China had deployed 40 vessels to block the delivery of supplies to its soldiers stationed in the contested Sabina Shoal.Earlier this week, the Philippines <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bfar.da.gov.ph/2024/10/09/da-bfar-statement-on-the-recent-ccg-water-cannon-incident-in-bajo-de-masinloc/">said</a> three Chinese Coast Guard vessels and a navy ship fired water cannons toward two civilian vessels while they were on a routine resupply mission in the West Philippine Sea.<div type="image" title="A Philippine coast guard vessel and a Chinese coast guard vessel during an incident in&#xa0;the South&#xa0;China&#xa0;Sea on August 19, 2024." height="1125" width="2000" msid="114167292" hostid="261" sizebytes="36066"></div>Poling described these as "the most violent months in the South China Sea since 1988," and added that the Philippines' "natural" response would be to seek help from its treaty ally, the US.Under a Mutual Defense <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20177/volume-177-I-2315-English.pdf">Treaty</a> signed in 1951, the US must come to the Philippines' aid in the event of an armed attack — something China has carefully avoided by conducting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a>.In an interview with CBS News <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">60 Minutes</a> last month, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro said that there were ongoing discussions about what scenarios would prompt the US to get involved.Meanwhile, according to Poling, China's official position is that everything the Philippines does is because the US made it do it."That's one of the things that makes this so hard to deescalate," he said.A war with China in the South China Sea is a prospect the US would likely want to avoid at all costs, given the ongoing conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East."But there's no world in which the US can sit on the sidelines, watch China potentially kill Filipinos in Philippine waters, and do nothing," Poling added.

Efforts by the US to counter China in the South China Sea could backfire

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19916007" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="South-Korea" source="keywords">South Korea</keyword> says North Korean troops are being trained by <keyword id="19895159" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="keywords">Russia</keyword> to fight in Ukraine.</li><li>The <keyword id="19900701" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kremlin" source="keywords">Kremlin</keyword> said the cooperation between the two was "within the framework of international law."</li></ul>The Kremlin's alliance with <keyword id="19910206" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="North-Korea" source="keywords">North Korea</keyword> may have bolstered its campaign in Ukraine, but it's come at a potentially serious cost. South Korea's government this week signaled its fury over the growing alliance between the two countries. In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241021004252315?section=national/diplomacy">meeting</a> with Russia ambassador Georgiy Zinoviev, South Korea demanded the withdrawal of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">North Korean soldiers which it said were being trained by Russia to fight in Ukraine.</a> A senior official in the office of <keyword id="19905053" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Yoon-Suk-Yeol" source="keywords">Yoon Suk Yeol</keyword>, South Korea's president, said on Tuesday that South Korea is now mulling sending weapons to help <keyword id="20506587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ukrainian-troops" source="keywords">Ukrainian troops</keyword>, reports said. In response, the Kremlin seemed eager to reassure South Korea. Zinoviev said the alliance between Russia and North Korea was "within the framework of international law." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the North Korea-Russia alliance "should not worry anyone." He also dismissed reports of the troop deployment as "contradictory." Earlier that day South Korea had placed pressure on the Kremlin, releasing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/south-korean-satellite-confirms-1-500-dprk-special-forces-deployment-to-russia/ar-AA1sAYVp">satellite images that </a>it said showed 1,500 North Korean military personnel being sent to Russia. Analysts at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-21-2024">Insitute for the Study of War, a US think tank,</a> said that the Kremlin appears worried about the backlash from Seoul. "The Kremlin's apparent desire to assure South Korea that its cooperation with North Korea is not a threat to Seoul suggests that the Kremlin remains very concerned about the prospect of Seoul's potential pivot towards providing Ukraine with necessary military support, and the implications of worsened relations with Seoul for Russian security interests in the Asia Pacific region," its analysts wrote on Monday. <div type="image" title="Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin share a toast at a banquet table." height="859" width="1341" msid="114472694" hostid="261"></div><h2>Russia's dangerous new alliance</h2>For decades, South Korea has been in an uneasy standoff with its isolated and authoritarian neighbor, North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has repeatedly menaced the South with the prospect of attack, while Seoul and its ally, the US, have sought to isolate North Korea and stymie its nuclear weapons program. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shaken the precarious balance of power in East Asia. Russia formed a new military alliance with North Korea to secure badly needed ammunition from North Korean stockpiles for its faltering campaign in Ukraine. South Korea is increasingly concerned about the technological capabilities and security guarantees North Korea has likely gained from Russia in return. Russia, previously a backer of sanctions designed to curtail North Korea's nuclear program, is now helping North Korea evade them. Analysts from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-korea-war-threatens-trillions-for-global-economy/">Bloomberg said in June </a>a war on the Korean peninsula could result in the loss of millions of human lives, and cost the global economy around $4 trillion. South Korea is a semiconductor and electronics manufacturing hub, meaning a disruption to its economy could have massive knock-on global effects. "The Ukraine war and its spillover to the Korean peninsula are taking a hard toll on the Seoul-Moscow relationship," wrote analyst Ellen Kim of the Center<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/seoul-moscow-relations-dangerous-slippery-slope"> for Strategic and International Studies in February.</a> Noting that "several factors could push the ROK-Russia [South Korea-Russia] relations off the cliff." <h2>South Korea says it could arm Ukraine</h2>In response to Russia's strengthened relationship with North Korea, South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in its battle against the Russian invasion. Russia's new defense treaty with North Korea in June seemed to mark a tipping point, with South Korea saying that it could overturn its long-standing ban on sending military assistance to countries at war to help Ukraine. It's a threat South Korea reiterated Tuesday, as officials from South Korea's National Security Council warned that the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia was a "grave security threat." It's a worrying prospect for Russia, with South Korea holding vast stockpiles of weapons that could help tip the war in Kyiv's favor. South Korea has large numbers of 155-millimeter artillery shells, a weapon Ukraine has been desperately short of and that its Western allies have struggled to produce in sufficient quantities. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/world/asia/leak-pentagon-south-korea-ukraine.html">The New York Times in 2023</a> reported that President Joe Biden has pressured South Korea to help it arm Ukraine with desperately needed shells, but South Korea had at that point hesistated. But in response to the latest escalation in North Korea's collaboration with Russia, South Korea again hinted that nothing was off the table as it weighed how to respond. South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong Kyun said in a statement Monday that the country would respond with "all available means in cooperation with the international community to any acts that threaten the core interests of South Korea." Correction: October 23, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the source describing South Korea's plans. It was a senior official in the office of President Yoon Suk Yeol; not an official named Yoon Suk Yeol.

Russia's friendship with North Korea may have backfired

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back to our Sunday edition. It seems everyone has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bryan-cranston-and-aaron-paul-mezcal-dos-hombres-profile-2023-12">their own brand of tequila or mezcal</a>. The latest to get in on the act: Tesla, which is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-mezcal-bottle-for-sale-2024-6">selling a $450 bottle of mezcal on its website</a>.On the agenda:<ul><li>Inside the spectacular rise, and fall, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/conflicts-of-interest-deepen-southern-district-of-texas-bankruptcy-court-2024-5">of a Texas bankruptcy court</a>.</li><li>Welcome to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/golden-age-rich-renters-not-buying-home-price-new-apartment-2024-6">golden age for rich renters</a>.</li><li>Goldman's star bankers reveal <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-investment-bank-leaders-lay-out-winning-strategy-2024-6">their plan to keep winning in M&amp;A</a>.</li><li>Brave startups are trying to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/insane-startups-trying-to-usurp-nvidia-ai-throne-2024-6">usurp Nvidia's AI throne</a>.</li></ul>But first: Shock election results in India will shake up the world's fifth-largest economy.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today-sunday-edition">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a target="_blank" href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><div type="image" title="Narendra Modi sitting at a table with flowers on it." height="683" width="1024" msid="110841760" hostid="261" sizebytes="58772"></div><h2 id="d97b5dce-e69d-489f-9b45-829a14c50408">This week's dispatch</h2>Modi missesIndian Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-congress-2024-6">a third term this week</a>, but his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to secure an overall majority. He'll now have to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/narendra-modi-won-already-seeing-cost-him-allies-cabinet-funding-2024-6">rely on allies</a> to form a government.The election result was a blow to Modi, who has governed India for a decade with an increasingly firm grip. The rebuke arrived despite Modi's record of lifting hundreds of millions of Indians out of poverty, which won praise from business titans like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-support-narendra-modi-india-elections-2024-6">Jamie Dimon</a>. Indian stock indexes <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/india-stock-market-news-narendra-modi-election-nse-nifty-50-2024-6">fell sharply</a> on the election results before recovering.India watchers expect the country's new government to move slower on some issues following the surprise election result. But experts believe Modi will be largely undeterred in his economic and foreign policy efforts.One pain point is India's rising unemployment rate. That could see Modi supercharge his efforts to turn India into the new factory of the world. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-tim-cook-indonesia-production-india-china-iphone-2024-4">Apple</a> is among those investing in manufacturing in the country.He has also positioned India as a leader of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/narendra-modi-redouble-global-power-mission-despite-election-setback-india-2024-6">Global South</a>, strengthening diplomatic ties with the US and pushing for a permanent position on the UN Security Council.That puts India in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-complicates-plans-unseat-china-modi-bjp-2024-6">direct competition</a> with China, with Modi wasting no time in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-straight-from-reelection-anger-china-taiwan-india-2024-6">needling his rival</a> shortly after claiming victory.<div type="image" title="An illustration of Elizabeth Freeman, Judge Marvin Isgur, and Judge David Jones" height="1500" width="2000" msid="110841758" hostid="261" sizebytes="208832"></div><h2 id="638f3bbc-eca5-4cd5-a743-625b126bcb84">The fall of a bankruptcy juggernaut</h2>New details have emerged about the tight-knit circle of attorneys and judges within one of the country's most powerful courts: the Southern District of Texas bankruptcy court.Rampant conflicts of interest fueled the court's meteoric rise — and its spectacular fall.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/conflicts-of-interest-deepen-southern-district-of-texas-bankruptcy-court-2024-5">Inside the court where conflicts of interest ran deep</a>.<div type="image" title="Gold apartment buildings with 'For Rent' signs and a sign reading '2 Months Free' with money falling" height="900" width="1200" msid="110841765" hostid="261" sizebytes="176086"></div><h2 id="5aae9749-51ac-4feb-a0f5-3cd0cd83c026">Rich and still renting</h2>A wave of apartment construction has flooded metros like Salt Lake City, Nashville, and Atlanta with new studios and two-bedroom apartments. To lure tenants, landlords are hawking deals left and right, from comped parking to discounted rent.The apartments are still expensive. But compared to the price of a down payment, they can feel like a bargain. And with amenities like pools and gyms, they are keeping wealthy Americans renting.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/golden-age-rich-renters-not-buying-home-price-new-apartment-2024-6">Why some Americans are sticking to renting</a>.Also read:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/multimillionaire-chooses-to-rent-not-buy-home-2024-6">I'm a multimillionaire who chooses to rent rather than buy a house. I'm glad I'm not wasting money on a mortgage</a>.</li></ul><div type="image" title="Alison Mass, Timothy Ingrassia, Stephan Feldgoise, Kim Posnett" height="1000" width="2000" msid="110841756" hostid="261" sizebytes="156132"></div><h2 id="cc1a3b53-8e8a-4598-8830-00560f6dd3a0">Inside the Goldman deal machine</h2>Goldman Sachs recently celebrated 25 years since it went public, and the bank's future has been a hot topic on Wall Street. Goldman's latest moves show its core business of advising companies and the ultrawealthy has retaken center stage.A dozen Goldman insiders and bank watchers spoke to BI about how the bank is positioning itself to succeed in the long run and how it'll ultimately withstand recent top-partner departures.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-investment-bank-leaders-lay-out-winning-strategy-2024-6">How Goldman plans to keep winning</a>.<div type="image" title="Jensons throne is being usurped?" height="900" width="1200" msid="110841763" hostid="261" sizebytes="98386"></div><h2 id="d403c417-2516-4e96-8e90-fac21fb49b60">Climbing Mt. Nvidia</h2>Going up against Nvidia is generally considered a pretty bad idea for startups in Silicon Valley. "Betting against Nvidia is viewed as a very stupid investment," one VC said.But Silicon Valley often thrives when true technologists keep hacking away at something they believe in, even if everyone else thinks it's dumb.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/insane-startups-trying-to-usurp-nvidia-ai-throne-2024-6">See the startups coming for Nvidia</a>.Also read:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ai-3-trillion-club-apple-microsoft-jensen-huang-2024-6">AI just catapulted Nvidia into the $3 trillion club at lightning pace</a></li></ul>This week's quote:"You just leave it alone, and you look up 40 years later, and it's a really nice number."A 65-year-old retiree <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retiree-saved-2-million-using-401k-low-cost-of-living-2024-6">who saved $2 million for retirement</a>.<h2 id="a4a20687-c2b5-4eca-b5f4-c89728a89254">More of this week's top reads:</h2><ul><li>Jack Dorsey gave $10 million to an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jack-dorsey-fiatjaf-nostr-donation-2024-6">anonymous founder with a deep devotion to a fascist "guru."</a></li><li>Six tips from Satya Nadella on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satya-nadella-microsoft-management-leadership-advice-how-to-run-business-2024-6">how to run a company and manage your team</a>.</li><li>Why big musical acts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jennifer-lopez-cancels-tour-slow-ticket-sales-concerts-prices-ticketmaster-2024-6">can't sell out concerts anymore</a>.</li><li>An unchecked AI could usher in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-new-dark-age-risks-regulations-2024-5">a new dark age</a>.</li><li>HR exec: If you get put on a PIP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pip-what-to-do-hr-exec-apply-job-2024-6">find a new job as fast as possible</a>.</li><li>Microsoft is laying off hundreds <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-cuts-azure-jobs-cloud-2024-6">in its Azure cloud business</a>.</li><li>Apple alerted Amazon about a potential cloud security risk, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-alerted-amazon-potential-cloud-security-risk-aws-2024-6">prompting a change in AWS's data-deletion process</a>.The Insider Today team: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/matt-turner">Matt Turner</a>, deputy editor-in-chief, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/jordan-parker-erb">Jordan Parker Erb</a>, editor, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/dan-defrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a>, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/lisa-ryan">Lisa Ryan</a>, executive editor, in New York.</li></ul>

Insider Today: Asia's superpower clash

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump might have upended the veepstakes tradition when he picked JD Vance as his running mate.</li><li>Vance, who holds remarkably similar political views to Trump, isn't going to "balance the ticket."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-luck-classified-documents-assassination-debate-2024-7">Donald Trump</a> upended the election tradition of "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-flipped-script-jd-vance-not-aimed-balancing-president-ticket-2024-7">balancing the ticket</a>" when he picked Ohio Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-vice-president-jd-vance-career-facts-2024-7">JD Vance</a> as his running mate. But the MAGA pair is unlikely to disrupt the calculus for an Asia that's already preparing for the possibility of his victory in November, experts say.Vance, a former Trump critic turned MAGA stalwart, has voiced foreign policy views in lockstep with Trump. Both men <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-does-trump-vance-stand-on-china-tariffs-inflation-taxes-2024-7">support wide tariffs on China</a> and have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-running-mate-jd-vance-ukraine-worst-nightmare-analysis-2024-7">criticized US aid to Ukraine</a>.Yet three experts on the Asia-Pacific told Business Insider that regional leaders — having learned from Trump's shock win in 2016 and his subsequent unpredictability — are already laying the groundwork for a scenario where he wins.<h2 id="d60358f2-bcd9-4253-90a1-8c07028ce812">Asia won't be surprised by a Trump-Vance administration</h2>"It would be quite irresponsible if they didn't already countenance this, and I think, to be honest, we will not see the overreactions that we saw earlier or in parts of Europe," said <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://dr.ntu.edu.sg/cris/rp/rp00194">Dylan Loh</a>, assistant professor of public policy and international studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University (NTU).Trump previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tpp-trans-pacific-partnership-what-it-means-2017-1">reneged on deals</a> he felt were disadvantageous to the US and pressured allies like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/trump-asks-tokyo-quadruple-payments-us-troops-japan/">Japan</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-thaad-south-korea-2017-4">South Korea</a> to support US defense costs.But Loh believes regional stability will prevail."I think Trump's tenure has shown that fears of abandonment or ignorance of politics in Asia are overblown," he said.The most prominent US-aligned governments in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines have been hedging their bets and working carefully to make their economies and supply chains more resilient, said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://discovery.nus.edu.sg/2380-ja-ian-chong">Chong Ja Ian</a>, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore."Other Southeast Asian states seem to believe they can weather another Trump administration, perhaps by freezing on the efforts of the northeast Asian US allies and partners plus the Philippines," he said.It's not just economics. The Philippines, for example, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/09/japan-and-the-philippines-sign-landmark-defense-deal-to-counter-china-.html">inked a new defense pact with Japan</a> in July as it grapples with the threat of an increasingly belligerent China in the South China Sea. This comes as the Philippines signs maritime agreements with key NATO countries <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ipdefenseforum.com/2024/04/philippines-u-k-strengthen-ties-to-boost-maritime-security-cooperation/">like the UK</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1692751/ph-france-sign-agreement-strengthening-maritime-industry">France</a>.<h2 id="d23ca00c-37ca-4167-bbb6-cebb083b0d0f">US-China relations won't change much, whether it's Trump or Biden at the wheel</h2>Even though Trump started the US-China trade war, experts say that China won't be too bothered if he returns to the White House.This, NTU's Loh said, is because President Joe Biden hasn't really deviated from Trump's hawkish stance against the Asian giant.For one, the Biden administration has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-tariffs-trade-restrictions-budget-deficit-biden-trump-stephen-roach-2024-7">kept most of Trump's China tariffs in place</a>. In fact, Biden introduced some of his own when he announced a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-joe-biden-hikes-tariffs-on-chinese-made-evs-2024-5">100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles</a> in May."For China, any preferences for either Trump or Biden is going to be marginal," Loh said."I think it is quite clear that regardless of whether a Democrat or a Republican is in office, the general bipartisan mood of seeing China as a threat or a strategic competitor will not abate," he added.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rsis.edu.sg/profile/kevin-chen-xian-an/">Kevin Chen</a>, a research fellow at NTU's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told BI that China may even prefer to have Trump back in power due to the turmoil he'll bring to the US' foreign ties."Given how Mr Trump would likely alienate US allies and partners with his policies, Beijing may prefer that he retake the White House to give them more opportunities to spread their influence," Chen explained.That said, most Asia-Pacific countries will shy away from appearing to take sides or expressing relief if either candidate wins."There's a joke in Japanese diplomatic circles that the outcome of a US presidential election is like opening a Christmas present, except that they must express that 'this is exactly what I wanted' regardless of the result," Chen said.

Asia is preparing for a rogue US if Trump and Vance win the election, security and foreign policy experts say

We are once again at a crucial point in the world's economic recovery. Everything must go right, or global markets could turn violent.For the past four years, the world has been unified in its efforts to first ease the economic pain caused by the pandemic and then combat the historic bout of inflation that followed. When the pandemic set in, central banks around the world slashed rates to zero — just as they did during the financial crisis. Then as inflation set in, they started raising rates at a rapid clip unseen in decades. They did all this in nearly perfect time, which ensured that markets remained stable and predictable. But now, the world risks falling out of sync.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-lagarde-economy-interest-rates-cuts-inflation-growth-central-banks-2024-6">European Central Bank began easing interest rates </a>on Thursday, cutting its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The move is not only a sign of confidence that the eurozone is in the last bouts of its battle with inflation but also an indication of worry that the economy needs a small boost to keep rolling. Investors and economists expect the Federal Reserve to follow suit and cut interest rates <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-may-rates-held-steady-no-cuts-2024-5">in September</a>. And so, the story goes, central banks around the world will begin their coordinated descent into a soft landing — a perfect calibration of that push-pull between fighting inflation and evading a recession.The thing is, reality has been making a mockery of experts' assumptions all year long. Wall Street started the year expecting inflation to cool off, the economy to slow to a more leisurely pace of growth, and as many as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rates-2024-outlook-rate-cut-predictions-wall-street-stocks-2023-12">six interest rate</a> cuts from the Fed. Instead, inflation data has consistently come in hot, and the US economy's strength has defied expectations. This combination means there's a good chance that the September cut Wall Street is praying for may never materialize."Summer will definitely be interesting," Tamara Basic Vasiljev, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, told me. Her base case is that everything will go according to plan, but there are caveats: "The Fed has proven its ability to fight off any kind of financial stability issues. But what if services inflation keeps surprising to the upside through the summer? Then it becomes apparent they can't even cut in September."If the Fed doesn't cut come fall, America's high interest-rate regime will be out of step with the rest of the world. And any differential between the US and the rest of the world would send a weird wave of money crashing onto America's shores. That sudden surge of cash could, in turn, add liquidity to our financial system just as the Fed is trying to dry it up and push up prices around the economy. This would make it even harder for the Fed to ease, further diverging US policy from the rest of the world. Think of it as a vicious cycle standing in the way of the world's smooth, soft landing.Over time, this has the potential to add volatility to already skittish markets. Here in the US, stocks move on mood — one week, Wall Street thinks we're in for stagflation; the next, it believes a soft landing is coming. This divergence in interest policy, over time, has the potential to bring that same frantic energy to currency markets.<h2>The carry nation</h2>Wind is the result of an imbalance: air moving from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. The greater the pressure differences, the faster the wind blows. The same principle applies to the global flow of cash — investors chase imbalances, and sometimes things get blown over in the process.The US already has somewhat higher interest rates than other countries — the Fed's benchmark rate is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-forecast-2024-full-accommodation-economic-contraction-unemployment-2023-11">5.25%- 5.50%.</a> These differentials have allowed Wall Street to make what is called a "<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/foreign-exchange-funds-central-banks-fed-rate-hikes-carry-trade-2023-11">carry trade</a>": Investors borrow money from a country with low interest rates, invest it in bonds from a country where interest rates are high, and pocket the difference. In this case, that means moving money from the rest of the world and buying US assets, particularly government bonds. This trade has been hot since the start of the year — investment banks like JPMorgan and UBS recommended it to clients, and a Bloomberg index based on selling the lowest-yielding G10 currencies and buying the highest ones has already returned 7% this year. The Institute of International Finance reported that in May alone, Emerging Markets ex-China — where rates are also higher — saw bond-market inflows of $10.2 billion, mostly due to investors benefiting from carry trades like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-dip-as-growth-concerns-linger/card/japanese-yen-strengthens-as-risk-aversion-rises-carry-trade-crumbles-9tGHrcickLndc749YzTO">selling Japanese yen</a> to buy Mexican pesos. These trades are "everywhere," Peter Schaffrik, a global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets, told Bloomberg. And the more rates diverge, the more attractive this march of money from weak to strong becomes.What seems like a slam dunk for Wall Street is not such good news for either the US or the global economy. At a time when economies in Europe and elsewhere are losing momentum, sucking more money away from these economies will tighten financial conditions while they're trying to avoid a slowdown — especially in crucial regional data like <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/european-shares-fall-amid-data-deluge-1033460481">German industrial production</a>, which has come in soft of late. It will also weaken the euro, which will make it harder for the continent to import the energy it needs to fuel its economy and make it more expensive to buy American goods. And in Asian economies, where interest rates are already significantly lower than in the US, things could get even messier."We expect that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-yen-slump-intervention-currency-buy-us-involvement-interest-rates-2024-5">Japan</a> and South Korea will face challenges balancing monetary policy to maintain stability as the dollar appreciates," Nigel Green, the CEO of deVere Group, a global wealth-management firm, told me. "I wouldn't be surprised if policymakers feel the need to intervene in the currency markets or adjust interest rates to manage these effects."For the US, more money sloshing onto America's shores has the opposite impact of what the Fed wants to achieve: It pushes up asset prices and loosens financial conditions. In other words, it makes it harder for the Fed to fight the inflation that is aggravating consumers."There are legitimate concerns that this influx of capital into the US will increase liquidity, driving up asset prices and inflationary pressure, making it more challenging for the Fed to lower rates," Green said. "Increased liquidity can lead to inflationary pressures, which the Fed might need to counteract by maintaining or even raising rates."As Green mentioned, there's a way for the Fed to fight back: hiking interest rates some more. But jacking up interest rates even further could finally break the back of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-consumer-spending-slowdown-growth-gdp-2024-5#:~:text=Consumers%20are%20finally%20slowing%20their,and%20a%20weakening%20job%20market.">until now strong US consumer</a> and send us into a recession. It's the same calculation the ECB is making, though the EU's slowdown is more marked. Given these downsides, the Fed is unlikely to hike, which will create the perfect market for the carry trade to thrive. And as long as US data remains choppy — pointing to sticky inflation one day and disinflation the next — this carry-trade cash will end up sloshing around in the economy. This is a dynamic that central banks from countries already on their rate-cutting path will be watching. They're already seeing growth slow and, on top of that, will have money sucked away to the US, where data has been relatively strong through the first half of the year. Carry-trade cash exploits the dislocations between global economies that are keeping our policies from coordinating. We're in the early innings, but the longer this goes on, the more of an impact it will make. For Wall Street, that means <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-summer-worry-stock-market-crash-inflation-hamtons-vacation-2024-5">a summer of vigilance</a>. For economists, it means the picture of our economy that they're trying to cobble together with contradictory data is even blurrier. It's a time of increased uncertainty.<h2>Sticky-ing the landing</h2>There is, of course, hope that this divergence will be only a temporary state of affairs. If the US suddenly starts printing weak economic data, that will hasten the Fed's move to cut rates. And there are signs that EU inflation is stickier than policymakers would like, which could slow the pace of cuts enough for America to catch up.There are already signs of a slight tempering of America's red-hot economy: The household savings rate is at a 16-month low, disposable incomes have made only modest gains, and the amount that people have to pay on credit balances is elevated. The white-hot job market has cooled, and job openings have returned to prepandemic levels. But not every indicator is telling the story of a soft landing. On Friday, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-unemployment-rate-job-growth-looked-in-may-2024-6">May's jobs report</a> showed that the country created 272,000 jobs — way more than the 182,000 expected. The data seesaw stateside continues. On the other side of the Atlantic, there are signs that UK and EU inflation could be stickier than policymakers had foreseen. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/eurozone-inflation-rises-ahead-of-ecb-meeting-1033440963">EU inflation ticked up slightly to 2.6% in May</a>, surprising the ECB but not shocking it enough to stop a June rate cut. In the UK, stubborn services inflation, which came in at 5.9% for the month of April, may give the Bank of England reason to pause. Oxford Economics' Basic Vasiljev told me that this indicated that the EU and US were moving more in tandem than this policy lag suggests and the current policy divergence would remain short. Even the Bank of Canada, which cut its benchmark rate to 4.75% from 5% last week, is cautiously optimistic the dislocation will be momentary. "There are limits to how far we can diverge from the United States, but we're not close to those limits," Gov. Tiff Macklem said at the Bank of Canada's latest meeting. Not close… yet.This rosy outlook is not a guarantee: Wall Street still expects three cuts this year from the ECB and the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/european-shares-fall-amid-data-deluge-1033460481">Bank of England</a>. Even in little clips of 0.25%, three cuts would create a divergence traders would exploit. And if September comes and the US is still hot, that exploitation could continue all year long, exacerbating the conditions that are keeping monetary policy out of sync. That sucking sound you'll hear all summer is the sound of Wall Street slurping money from Europe, Canada, the UK, and East Asia into US markets. Policymakers will have to recalibrate. This doesn't mean we won't stick a soft landing — especially if this disordered moment is brief — it just increases the odds of a bumpy ride until we get there.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/linette-lopez">Linette Lopez</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider.

America's plan to fix its economy is going to screw over the rest of the world

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11916313" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sri-lanka" source="Orion">Sri Lanka</keyword> has become a "bankrupt country" after running out of money, its prime minister said.</li><li>Protests have erupted after food prices soared and fuel supplies were rationed due to shortages.</li></ul>The president of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, 73, resigned on Thursday after fleeing to Singapore in the wake of widespread protests across the island nation sparked by dire shortages of fuel, medicines and huge rises in the cost of basic foodstuffs in recent weeks.The prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, is now acting president until a new head of state is elected.So what has gone wrong with Sri Lanka's <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> – and how might its problems be solved?<h2>What triggered the protests in Sri Lanka?</h2>Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year sent the cost of oil, natural gas and commodities such as grain soaring globally. Sri Lanka's economy was already poorly managed, according to many experts, and the price rises have proven to be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Rajapaksa's older brother Mahinda has also served as president and their family has governed Sri Lanka for much of the past 20 years. Their decision to borrow huge sums from China in particular, partly for infrastructure projects of questionable value, and what the Financial Times has described as failed economic policies, caused Sri Lanka to default on its debt in May.<h2>What is a default?</h2>A default occurs when a government stops making interest payments to its creditors. In Sri Lanka's case it owes $51 billion, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c2d1267a-064c-477e-85d4-b7cf1ce751c2">the FT reported</a>, and has become the first country to default since the Ukraine war began. Other less wealthy countries where a greater proportion of spending goes on food could also follow suit, economists fear.<h2>What are the consequences?</h2>Earlier this month Wickremesinghe said Sri Lanka was now a "bankrupt country," <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/05/asia/sri-lanka-bankrupt-fuel-crisis-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN reported</a>.Because it has run out of foreign currencies such as US dollars, Sri Lanka can no longer pay for imports of fuel and food. People have been told to work from home in a bid to save energy, schools have closed and electricity supplies have become unreliable. Sales of petrol have been restricted, creating huge queues of rickshaw taxis trying to fill up in cities like the capital Colombo.<div type="image" title="Rickshaw drivers queue for fuel in Colombo on Wednesday." height="3515" width="4687" msid="92918861" hostid="261"></div>A state of emergency is now in force, raising fears about the military's actions in a country where a long-running conflict between government forces and the Tamil Tigers only ended a little more than a decade ago.Hannah Ellis-Petersen, the Guardian's <keyword id="11893424" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="south-asia" source="Orion">south Asia</keyword> correspondent, who is reporting from Colombo, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/15/friday-briefing-how-one-familys-disastrous-reign-dragged-sri-lanka-to-the-brink">told its First Edition newsletter</a> that Sri Lanka's problems were "not just Covid-19 or the war in Ukraine, or global inflation" but largely the consequence of what the newspaper called "reckless spending and endemic corruption."<h2>What happens now?</h2>The president's resignation does not signal the end of the economic crisis given that inflation is running at more than 50% and the central bank has been printing money to pay for additional borrowing, which is not sustainable. "The government doesn't have enough money to meet expenditure, and doesn't have the dollar reserves to fund imports," Nishan de Mel of Verité Research, a Colombo-based think-tank, told the FT.The economy has also been deprived of tourism income after but the government kept its borders closed until late 2021 with a "zero-Covid" policy that echoed China - long after neighboring nations reopened.<h2>What is being done to help Sri Lanka?</h2>The International Monetary Fund had been finalizing a bailout for Sri Lanka before the president's and prime minister's residences were stormed last weekend by protesters who partied and took a dip in their swimming pools.The <keyword id="12030574" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="imf" source="Orion">IMF</keyword> wants the situation to stabilize before talks resume, but the political vacuum complicates that process and means imports of fuel and food are unlikely to resume immediately.

Fuel shortages, massive debts, and protesters partying in the presidential palace: Here is what's going on in 'bankrupt' Sri Lanka

<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korea and South Korea are in an intensifying arms race. </li><li>North Korea has launched a series of missile tests. </li></ul>North Korea on Monday claimed it had tested a new weapon capable of far greater destruction than the ballistic missiles in its arsenal.The Hwasong-11Da-4.5, which has a 4.5-ton warhead, follows South Korea's development of multi-ton warhead ballistic missiles, designed as "bunker busters" that can take out North Korean nuclear bases, amid <a target="_blank" href="https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2021/the-arms-race-on-the-korean-peninsula/">an intensifying arms race on the peninsula.</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-says-it-tested-ballistic-missile-capable-carrying-super-large-2024-07-01/">The South Korean military called</a> the announcement a "deception," claiming North Korea had botched a test in which a missile crashed near Pyongyang.The situation could get more dangerous in the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin's new security alliance with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.<h3 id="5ff7ce2f-7f8f-41a9-b1b5-bbfbe4fbd3c2">The UN seeks to contain North Korean aggression</h3>For decades, the UN Security Council, of which Russia is a permanent member, has sought to restrict North Korea's nuclear weapons program, cutting off access to key technology and the global economy.Russia appeared wary of the potential threat North Korea posed on its eastern border and worked with countries, including the US, to isolate Kim — but the Ukraine war has changed that.Desperate for new supplies of ammunition and artillery for his army, Putin has found a willing new supplier in North Korea.According to reports, North Korea has supplied Russia with<a target="_blank" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/28/jong-un-has-sent-russia-3-million-shells-claims-south-korea/"> up to 3 million shells for its campaign in Ukraine</a>, along with ballistic missiles used to target Ukrainian cities.In turn, Russia is helping North Korea break its diplomatic, economic, and military isolation.It has increased food and fuel exports to North Korea and vetoed the renewal of a UN panel that monitors the sanctions against the country.The Kremlin is also suspected of handing North Korea vital satellite technology that the rogue state could use to monitor US allies in the region and, if there were a war, target their military assets more effectively.So far, Russia seems to have stopped short of providing North Korea with direct military support, though it has pledged to come to its aid if attacked.But analysts at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-russia-north-korea-security-alliance">the Center for Strategic and International Studies</a> are concerned that Kim could drive a "hard bargain" and demand more high-end nuclear and missile technology."North Korea would benefit from fielding a nuclear weapons force that could evade US missile defenses with high-end intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines," they wrote in an article published June 20.North Korea may have exaggerated how well Monday's test went, but Russia's alliance is definitely enhancing the threat the country poses to the delicate security balance in East Asia.Improved missile technology could, in theory, enable North Korea to evade US missile defense systems and strike the US mainland, undermining the US's security pledge to South Korea.If North Korea comes closer to being able to strike the US, it could fuel "skepticism about American nuclear guarantees" and, in turn, "spark a renewed push by South Korea to develop its own nuclear deterrent," wrote analysts from the Wilson Center in April.South Korea's government has said it could send weapons to Ukraine in response, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/deepening-russia-north-korea-ties-test-us-south-korea-deterrence-strategy-/7681695.html">Voice of America reported Monday</a> that some South Korean politicians are questioning the effectiveness of America's nuclear deterrent.Politician Na Kyung Won said last week that deterrence was "currently working" but "does not guarantee the capacity to respond to the future changes in the security environment," the outlet reported.

North and South Korea are locked in a dangerous arms race. Putin may be about to make this worse.

Cu<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">rbi</keyword>ng <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> is among the key priority areas for South Asian nations, RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said on Friday. Inflation control is a priority for the South Asian region, including <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>, he said, adding that risks to growth and investment may rise if inflation remains high. Addressing the IMF's conference on "<keyword id="52011" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="south-asia" source="Orion">South Asia</keyword>'s Path to Resilient Growth", Das further said that the Centre and the RBI are also discussing cross-border rupee trade with South Asian countries. The Governor in his address noted that the region's dependence on fossil fuel imports made it vulnerable to imported inflation. Listing key priority areas for South Asia apart from inflation, he said that these economies also need to contain external vulnerabilities, raise productivity, strengthen cooperation for energy security, enhance green energy cooperation and promote tourism. Though softening of commodity prices may help in lowering inflation in the near future, Das at the same time cautioned that risks to growth and investment outlook may rise if inflation persists at high levels. He also informed that the central bank digital currency is in a trial phase and the RBI is treading with caution on it. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/sbi-hdfc-bank-axis-bank-among-other-private-and-public-bank-earnings-could-see-a-further-ramp-up-in-q3-2022/articleshow/96768992.cms">Bank earnings could see a further ramp up in Q3, say analysts</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rupee-rises-15-paise-to-82-47-against-us-dollar/articleshow/96782892.cms">Rupee rises 15 paise to 82.47 against US dollar</a>

Curbing inflation key priority area for South Asian nations: RBI Governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A prolonged drought in southeast Asia contributed to massive fish deaths in southern Vietnam.</li><li>The climate crisis and human development threaten the Mekong Delta, a key global agricultural center.</li></ul>A weekslong drought across parts of southeast Asia has killed hundreds of thousands of fish in a reservoir in Vietnam and pushed a key metric for coffee prices to record levels — just two indicators of the kind of havoc the climate is wreaking on people and the economy.In Vietnam, the maze of wetlands that comprise the Mekong Delta is called the country's "rice bowl" because of the vast agriculture it supports. The climate crisis and human development threaten the water the region relies on, especially in El Niño years like this one.As Vietnam's freshwater levels drop, salt water intrudes, causing massive economic devastation. From 2020 to 2023, the Mekong Delta lost 70 trillion Vietnamese dong, or $2.96 billion, annually because of salt intrusion, the country's Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment <a target="_blank" href="https://e.vnexpress.net/news/environment/mekong-delta-loses-3b-a-year-to-salt-intrusion-4723065.html">said</a> in mid-March. Those figures are expected to climb in coming years, the ministry said.While Vietnam is no longer a heavily agricultural economy, the industry still accounted for about 12% of its GDP last year, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?locations=VN">World Bank</a>.It's too early to know exactly how this year's drought, exacerbated by El Niño, will affect harvests and exports. But early gauges indicate trouble for at least one key export. Vietnam's coffee association said in late March that exports of robusta coffee — the bean used in espresso and instant coffee — could decline as much as 20% in the 12 months ending in September, compared with the same period last year. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, and futures prices for the bean <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coffee-prices-vietnam-robusta-futures-high-asia-expensive-drought-espresso-2024-4">hit a 16-year high</a> last week.Meanwhile, in southern Vietnam, hundreds of thousands of fish died in a reservoir last month as temperatures peaked over 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain fell for weeks, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240501-mass-fish-die-off-in-vietnam-as-heatwave-roasts-southeast-asia">AFP reported</a>. Residents blamed the weather and the reservoir's management.Business Insider could not locate the owner of the reservoir for comment.<div type="image" title="Vietnamese fisherman collects dead fish in a reservoir." height="682" width="1024" msid="109880703" hostid="261" sizebytes="114460"></div>Irrigation measures, including those put in after a disastrous 2020 drought, have helped keep much of the Mekong Delta wet despite the widespread dryness, <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/MekongMonitor/status/1785331362112663872">reported</a> the Mekong Dam Monitor last week. The group, run by a US think tank, highlighted that two southern provinces still had "extreme dryness" — and those areas are harvesting crops this month, the group said.Water levels are below average in 13 of the country's 24 monitoring stations, largely in the far north and far south, according to the intergovernmental agency <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mrcmekong.org/">Mekong River Commission</a>.While Vietnam has built significant infrastructure to combat increasingly brutal droughts, farmers told <a target="_blank" href="https://e.vnexpress.net/photo/environment/central-highlands-suffering-from-extreme-drought-4734165.html">local media</a> last month they're still struggling. Some of the reservoirs they need to tap are contaminated with chemicals like alum, while other irrigation options are costly. A farmer in a central province said two acres of his rice burned from the drought."Every year we harvest about 18 bags of rice, each bag is 60 kilograms, but this year there is a lack of water, so maybe we'll only get a few bags," Ksor Phung told VnExpress.At least three provinces declared states of emergency last month, asking for government help to address water shortages and salinity problems.The drought in Vietnam underscores how the climate crisis is hitting agriculture worldwide. Lower and less predictable crop yields can translate to lower productivity, higher inflation, and worse nutrition, among other issues.

Hundreds of thousands of fish died in a single reservoir in Vietnam, another sign of how climate change is strangling the economy

<keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> saved USD 4.2 billion in fuel costs through solar generation in the first half of 2022 and 19.4 million tonnes of coal which would have further stressed an already strained domestic supply, according to a new report released on Thursday. The report by energy think tank Ember, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis also analysed the growth of solar power over the last decade and found that five of the top 10 economies with solar capacity are now within <keyword id="21718" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="asia" source="Orion">Asia</keyword>, including India, China, Japan, <keyword id="5565" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="south-korea" source="Orion">South Korea</keyword> and Vietnam. The contribution of solar generation in seven key Asian countries -- India, China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand -- avoided potential fossil fuel costs of around USD 34 billion from January to June 2022, the report said. This is equivalent to 9 per cent of total fossil fuel costs during this period, it added. "In India, solar generation avoided USD 4.2 billion in fuel costs in the first half of the year. It also avoided the need for 19.4 million tonnes of coal that would have further stressed an already strained domestic supply," the report stated. The report finds that the majority of the estimated USD 34 billion savings are in China, where solar met 5 per cent of the total electricity demand and avoided around USD 21 billion in additional coal and gas imports during the period. Japan saw the second-highest impact, with USD 5.6 billion in avoided fuel costs thanks to solar power generation alone. Vietnam's solar power avoided USD 1.7 billion in additional fossil fuel costs, a sizable growth from nearly zero terawatt hours of solar generation in 2018. In 2022, solar accounted for 11 per cent (14 TWh) of the electricity demand from January to June. The report said that in Thailand and the Philippines, where the growth in solar has been slower, the avoided fuel cost is still notable. While solar only accounted for 2 per cent of Thailand's electricity in the first six months of 2022, an estimated USD 209 million of potential fossil fuel costs were avoided, it added. The Philippines avoided USD 78 million in fossil fuel spending, despite solar accounting for only 1 per cent of generation. In South Korea, solar power generated 5 per cent of the country's electricity in the first half of the year, avoiding potential fossil fuel use costing USD 1.5 billion, as per the report. CREA's <keyword id="53564" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="southeast-asia" source="Orion">Southeast Asia</keyword> Analyst <keyword id="15477249" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="isabella-suarez" source="Orion">Isabella Suarez</keyword> said Asian countries need to tap into their massive solar potential to rapidly transition away from costly and highly-polluting fossil fuels. The potential savings from existing solar alone are enormous, and expediting their deployment alongside other clean energy sources such as wind, will be crucial for energy security in the region. While ambitious targets are important, follow through will be the key thing to watch moving forward, she said. Vibhuti Garg, Director of South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said reliance on imports of coal and gas in the last few months has proven to be expensive and unreliable. "Transition to renewable energy such as solar can help reduce the overall system costs and also reduce the burden to consumers by lowering tariffs. For energy security and economic reasons, it makes sense for India and the rest of Asia to redirect investments towards building the renewable energy ecosystem," she said. Aditya Lolla, the Senior Electricity Policy Analyst at EMBER, said India's solar power push in recent years has not only improved its energy security but also positioned its power sector well to embark on a solar revolution. "India seems to be very bullish on solar power growth in the next 10 years too, as evident from the new draft National Electricity Plan. So, it's looking very likely that the 2020s is when solar power is going to finally ramp up in India and begin India's coal phasedown journey," he said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/article/nykaas-fashion-foray-and-pipeline-style-biz-model-worries-analysts/articleshow/95405203.cms">Nykaa’s fashion foray and pipeline-style biz model worries analysts</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/britannia-crosses-1-lakh-crore-in-market-cap-today/slidelist/95407926.cms">It’s a Good Day: Britannia crosses ₹1 lakh crore in market cap</a>

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