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<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a> wasn't a public Trump backer until this summer. Then he went all-in.</li><li>Now that Trump has won, Musk is seemingly attached to him — in public and behind the scenes.</li></ul>American voters re-elected Donald Trump this month. At the moment, it also looks like they've elected Elon Musk.That's because the world's richest man, having endorsed Trump, campaigned for him, and pumped a reported <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-america-pac-trump-d248547966bf9c6daf6f5d332bc4be66">$200 million into Trump's campaign</a>, now seems to be acting like a shadow president.Yes, there's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-elon-musk-vivek-ramaswamy-department-government-efficiency-doge-2024-11">his upcoming role running the "Department of Government Efficiency" for Trump</a>, alongside former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. And Musk is relentlessly promoting Trump on Twitter, the site he bought in 2022 and renamed X.But that's just the beginning: Since Trump's election, Musk has joined "almost every meeting and many meals that Mr. Trump has had," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/us/politics/musk-trump-transition-mar-a-lago.html">The New York Times reports</a>, and is offering advice about policies and personnel. He is promising to direct his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/11/06/elon-musk-trump-victory/">America political action committee to support Trump allies in midterm elections in 2026</a> and in elections after that.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/musk-putin-secret-conversations-37e1c187">Musk, who The Wall Street Journal says has been in "regular contact" with Russian President Vladimir Putin since 2022</a>, is now joining Trump on calls with world leaders, including one with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And the Times reports that earlier this week <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/world/middleeast/elon-musk-iran-trump.html">Musk met with Iran's ambassador to the United Nations</a> — allowing Iran to open a diplomatic channel to Trump without formally sitting down with him.And much of this is happening in the open, as Musk parks himself at Mar-a-Lago, Trump's Florida country club."He likes this place. I can't get him out of here. He just likes the place," Trump joked in a speech Thursday night. "And you know what, I like having him here too. He's good. He's done a fantastic job."We don't know how long this relationship will last — more on that later. But as long as it does, it is worth noting that this tie-up between the richest man in the world and the leader of the free world is something we've never seen before."It's totally extraordinary. It's never happened before. We've never even come close to it," says David Nasaw, a professor of history at the City University of New York Graduate Center.Nasaw, who has written biographies of tycoons like <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=47aa4c3cd325005a6d607d1fc40f4a236a70f8f0a08e77c8888d516a79e4ad78&amp;postID=6737cff9d4b5ffeb6fd9bb41&amp;postSlug=elon-musk-donald-trump-elected-shadow-president-2024-11&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FChief-Life-William-Randolph-Hearst%2Fdp%2F0618154469">William Randolph Hearst</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=7d6110d37c29aec54eec7f8536f4d61f569c7cc130e8a28a8174d1eecb1810a6&amp;postID=6737cff9d4b5ffeb6fd9bb41&amp;postSlug=elon-musk-donald-trump-elected-shadow-president-2024-11&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FAndrew-Carnegie-David-Nasaw%2Fdp%2F0143112449%23%3A~%3Atext%3DA%2520fascinating%2520biography%2520of%2520the%2Cfinally%2520to%2520international%2520peace%2520advocate.">Andrew Carnegie</a> — who was the world's richest man in his lifetime — notes that it's standard for very wealthy men to try to influence government. What's different here is how close Musk is to Trump — literally — and how public it is."In the past, the oligarchs, having elected their candidate, assumed - rightly — that their candidate was going to do the job," he tells me. "Then, having done that, if they had advice to offer, they would do that using <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cutout_(espionage)#:~:text=In%20espionage%20parlance%2C%20a%20cutout,exchange%20of%20information%20between%20agents.">cutouts</a>, who would get in touch with the president. Musk has inserted himself in a way that just hasn't been done."This is a relationship that fired up quite recently. While Musk and Trump's politics have seemed aligned for some time — <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1707565081750290910">here's Musk in the fall of 2023, visiting the Texas/Mexico border</a>, where he described an immigration crisis he called "insane" — they weren't publicly linked up until this summer.In March, after reports that Trump had met with Musk in Florida, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-donation-super-pac-report-2024-7">Musk insisted he wasn't backing his campaign</a>: "Just to be super clear, I am not donating money to either candidate for US President," he tweeted.Within a few months of that statement, Musk had formally endorsed Trump, campaigned for him at rallies, and took charge of Trump's get-out-the-vote efforts.But Trump didn't spend much time talking about Musk's role in his second presidency during the election. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/us/politics/trump-elon-musk-efficiency-commission.html">He first floated the idea of having Musk run a government efficiency office in early September</a>, but it wasn't a focus of his rallies and pitches.Musk's name never surfaced once during <a target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542">Trump's debate with Kamala Harris</a> in September, or the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/full-vp-debate-transcript-walz-vance-2024/">JD Vance-Tim Walz debate</a> in October. If you were paying attention, you might have noticed that Musk was one the last speakers to appear before Trump at his Madison Square Garden rally in late October — a sign of his importance to Trump.But that's a lot different from telling people that if he were re-elected, he would be relying on Musk to help plot his administration, and to represent the country on an international stage.Next question: How long will this continue? On the one hand, both Trump and Musk have big incentives to continue their partnership. Trump values Musk's money, and his intelligence, and he likes the idea of being endorsed by the world's richest man; Musk likes adulation too, plus he has <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link c-link--underline" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/20/us/politics/elon-musk-federal-agencies-contracts.html">very concrete and lucrative connections to the US government via his network of companies</a>.On the other hand, both men are famously short-fused, and both men — I've emailed Musk and a Trump spokesman, but haven't heard back — adore the spotlight. And that combination makes it easy to imagine a break-up down the line.It's also possible that Trump will find that Musk's advice and consent simply won't be as valuable to him over time. Perhaps he may notice that while Musk has been extraordinary at building companies that require an engineering brain — Tesla and SpaceX — he has faltered at Twitter, a product that requires "a different type of social-emotional intelligence," as his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/esther-crawford-twitter-video-about-working-with-elon-musk-2023-7">former employee Esther Crawford noted</a>.And Nasaw points out that both Carnegie, who helped elect Theodore Roosevelt, and Hearst, who helped elect Franklin Roosevelt, expected to be rewarded once their candidates won — but <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/opinion/elon-musk-trump-election.html">were basically ignored</a>.Maybe we'll see a repeat of that. Except that by tying himself directly to the next president, in full view of everyone, Musk has already shown that history doesn't repeat precisely. We're in uncharted waters here.

Turns out America elected Elon Musk, too

X (formerly Twitter) is experiencing its largest user exodus since <keyword id="6355315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="elon-musk" source="Orion">Elon Musk</keyword> took over in 2022. The tipping point is a perfect storm of political controversy, privacy fears, and discontent with the platform’s new policies, culminating in a dramatic shift of users to alternative platforms like <keyword id="412371" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bluesky" source="Orion">Bluesky</keyword> and <keyword id="1163500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="threads" source="Orion">Threads</keyword>. Here’s a breakdown of the recent changes and why they’ve left users saying goodbye to X. <h2>Political backlash</h2>The day after the U.S. presidential election on November 6, X saw over 115,000 account deactivations — the most since Musk's acquisition. Many users were disillusioned by Musk's perceived alignment with newly elected President Donald Trump. Musk's vocal support for Trump during his campaign, coupled with his attendance at Republican rallies, alienated users who once trusted X as a politically neutral platform. One user, Kara Wurtz, said the election was the “final straw.” After eight years on the platform, the finance director from St. Louis decided that X was no longer delivering the content she valued. “Every time I opened it, it would throw things at me that put me in a bad mood,” she said. The political fallout didn’t just affect individuals. Prominent organisations and brands, including The Guardian and former CNN anchor Don Lemon, have also bid farewell to the platform. <h2>New terms of service spark outrage</h2>On November 15, X's updated terms of service came into effect, granting the platform a sweeping global licence to use user-generated content. This includes using posts, photos, and creative works to train artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models. The backlash was immediate: <ul><li>Privacy Concerns: By continuing to use X, users implicitly agree to have their data — personal photos, creative work, and more — used for AI training. Artists and creators fear their intellectual property could be exploited to develop AI tools that might one day replace human creativity.</li><li>Legal Implications: Disputes over the new terms will be handled in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, home to Judge Reed O'Connor, a Tesla investor. This has raised questions about potential bias in legal proceedings related to the platform.</li></ul>Alex Fink, CEO of the AI-powered platform Otherweb, criticised X’s lack of transparency, stating, “Unlike other platforms with vague licensing terms, X removes any ambiguity about its intentions.” <h2>Changes to blocking and safety settings</h2>Safety concerns have also escalated due to alterations in X’s block feature. Users now allegedly receive notifications that even those they block can still view their posts — though they can’t interact. This tweak is particularly alarming for users who have faced harassment on the platform. Many feel their safety is compromised, prompting them to seek refuge in safer alternatives like Bluesky, which saw a surge of 500,000 new users in just one day following the policy updates. Initially developed by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, Bluesky offers customizable feeds and decentralised control, which many find refreshing. With over 16 million users (and counting), it’s quickly becoming the top choice for X refugees. Threads, Instagram’s text-based app, also surpassed 275 million monthly active users by November, with 15 million new sign-ups last month alone. For many, these platforms represent a chance to escape X’s chaos while reclaiming control over their online experience. <h2>Is Fediverse the future?</h2>Experts believe the exodus from X could mark the beginning of a new era of decentralised social networks. Bluesky, built on a protocol that enables interconnected platforms, is part of the "Fediverse," which could allow users to interact seamlessly across different apps. This shift reflects growing dissatisfaction with centralised platforms that control user data, content visibility, and privacy settings. While Musk touts record-breaking engagement on X, the cracks in the platform’s foundation are evident. Critics warn that X could become a training ground for Musk’s xAI venture, leveraging user interactions to fuel lucrative AI models. Whether X can weather this storm remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the days of Twitter’s broad appeal as a space for open, inclusive dialogue seem to be fading fast.

Mass X-odus: What are the controversial changes on X that are driving users away?

New Delhi [India], May 16 (ANI): <keyword id="9766785" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections-2024" source="Orion">Lok Sabha elections 2024</keyword> have seen a <keyword id="20108198" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voter-turnout" source="keywords">voter turnout</keyword> at polling stations of about 66.95 per cent so far, as approximately 451 million people have voted during the first four phases of ongoing general elections. In a bid to encourage voters to exercise their franchise in large numbers, ECI has enhanced its targeted interventions to reach out to every eligible voter. The Commission led by CEC Rajiv Kumar along with ECs Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu, further directed CEOs of the states going to poll in the fifth, sixth and seventh phases to timely distribute voter information slips to all electors and enhance outreach activities. "Commission strongly believes that partnership and collaboration are essential pillars of the voter awareness programme. It's heartening to see that, at the Commission's request, different institutions, influencers and celebrities with significant reach are working enthusiastically on a pro-bono basis," Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said. Further, he added that a higher voter turnout would be a message from Indian voters to the world, about the strength of Indian Democracy. He urges all the voters to cast their vote in huge numbers, as voting day is not a holiday but a day of pride, by participating in the festival of democracy. According to an official release, various <keyword id="21686177" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voter-awareness-drives" source="keywords">voter awareness drives</keyword> and campaigns have been carried out by stakeholders in collaboration with ECI. Telecom Service Providers such as Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited, Bharti Airtel Limited, Jio Telecommunication, and Vodafone-Idea Limited are reaching out to every mobile user in the respective parliamentary constituency through push SMS/Flash SMSs, outbound dialling calls to mobile users, RCS (Rich Communication Services) messaging and WhatsApp messages/alerts. These activities are carried out two/three days before the poll and even on the poll day, in regional languages, with an appeal to vote. ECI has collaborated with BCCI for voter awareness activities during the ongoing IPL season. The voter awareness messages and songs are being played at different stadiums during the cricket matches. The most innovative aspect of this campaign is the administration of voter's pledges by cricket legend Sachin Tendulkar in a pre-recorded video message, at various IPL venues. Further, voter awareness messages are integrated into cricket commentary. Cricketers from 10 IPL teams have encouraged voters to participate in the <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections in 2024 with their recorded voter awareness messages. A voting day alert was sent to all Facebook users pan India to inform and inform the voters about the general elections and to nudge them to participate in the festival of democracy, the release mentioned. The release further stated that WhatsApp personalised messages have begun on polling day. Google India is contributing through its iconic feature of Google Doodle on poll days and banners appearing on YouTube, Google Pat and other Google platforms. The Retail Association of India has been actively engaging with voter awareness activities, through their retail network, whereby retail chains are encouraged to celebrate the election as a festival. The vast network of post offices and banking institutions was utilised by ECI to reach out to a wide and diverse audience across the length and breadth of the country. In collaboration with the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, the parliamentary elections campaign logo "Chunav ka Parv, Desh ka Garv" has been integrated with the IRCTC portal and tickets. Voter awareness announcements have been integrated with the public address system at all railway stations. The logo stickers are used on coaches of the superfast trains. In collaboration with the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, hoardings on voter awareness have been installed in about 16,000 retail outlets. In collaboration with the Ministry of Civil Aviation, airlines are making an inflight announcement with an appeal message to participate in the ensuing elections. Voter guides are being kept in aircraft seat pockets. Apart from this, many airports are providing space for the display of voter awareness messages. Selfie points have been installed at airports in 10 major cities viz. Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh, and Pune. Cinema theatres across the country are playing ECI voter awareness films and ECI Song Main Bharat Hoon, Hum Bharat Ke Matdata Hai, at regular intervals, as a part of the Public Service Awareness (PSA) film. Sansad TV is creating short films on Unique Polling Stations set up in remote corners of the country by the election machinery after navigating difficult terrains to demonstrate the challenges in ensuring voting at the last mile. AMUL, Mother Dairy and other milk co-operatives have started branding their milk pouches with the message 'Chunav Ka Parv, Desh ka Garv' and encouraging voters through social media platforms. AMUL is also encouraging voters with its unique messaging through AMUL Girl Topical advertisements in newspapers. Prasar Bharati: Doordarshan has produced, various short films, including appeals from constitutional functionaries like President of India, Vice President of India, and Chief Justice of India, among others. Further, unique polling stations are being covered by the regional Kendra's audio-visual documentation. Music App Spotify is running a campaign called 'Play Your Part', and they have issued print advertisements, and curated the playlists for the elections, on their app. Payments app PhonePe has integrated voter awareness message into their app and is actively encouraging voters. BookMyShow has launched an integrated campaign, titled "Aaj Picture Nahi, Bigger Picture Dekho," to raise awareness among voters. MakeMyTrip is running a campaign titled 'MyVoteWalaTrip', whereby discounts are offered to citizens going to vote. Food delivery platforms such as Zomato and Swiggy are disseminating voter awareness messages through their platforms and social media activities. Grocery App Blinkit changed its logo to "Inkit" for the elections, incorporating a message encouraging people to "Go out and Vote" as a tagline. Uber India is reaching out to voters through multi-channel messaging (in-app, emails, push notifications), offering discounts for rides to polling stations, and amplifying voter awareness messages on social media platforms. Bike app Rapido has been encouraging voters with a free ride to vote. Urban Company has launched 'I Have Voted Campaign' to encourage voters. Tata Neu app, serving as the Tata Group's group-wide consumer-facing mobile app, prominently features the "Cast Your Vote" animated banner on its homepage, with additional initiatives currently underway. Truecaller is enhancing its layout by displaying voter awareness message during outbound calls Some other independent initiatives are Mankind Pharma #VotingVirgin campaign, clothing brand Neeru's "Vote ki Taiyaari" TVC, Tinder's "Every Single Vote Counts" campaign, creatively curated social media post by Matrimonial sites like Jeevansathi.com, etc and discounts for voting by popular brands such as Shoppers' Stop, MakeMyTrip, Chroma and many more. Four phases of Lok Sabha polls have been held and the voting will conclude on June 1 with results on June 4. The remaining phases will be held on May 20, May 25, and June 1.

451 million voters! First four phases of Lok Sabha elections witness 66.95% voter turnout so far

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="23944870" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sonya-Moore" source="keywords">Sonya Moore</keyword> decided that if Trump won in 2016, she would leave the US.</li><li>She followed through and has been living abroad for seven years.</li></ul>"If Trump wins this election, I'm <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reelected-americans-are-planning-to-flee-in-droves-2024-3">moving out of the country</a>." I said those words in November 2016. So did a lot of other Americans: so many, in fact, that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-immigration-site-crash-election-2016-11">Canada's immigration website crashed</a> as votes were being tallied due to increased traffic. No joke. I don't know how many others <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-who-left-us-because-of-trump-talk-biden-presidency-2020-12">followed through on that declaration</a>, but I did. Trump won the election, and 9 months later, I left the US. Full disclosure: Trump becoming president was not the only reason I left — it was also about being fed up with my corporate job, coupled with a strong desire to explore the world. I was 37, single, with no children or pets, so I was free to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/working-mom-quit-job-expat-move-abroad-qatar-singapore-2023-12">quit my job</a>, uproot myself, and take off. I did own a house at the time, which I sold a few months after I left. Upon my departure, I didn't have much of a plan other than the intention to spend some time slowly exploring Asia and teaching English when I needed to make money. This no-plan thing was out of character for me, but I was very comfortable with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/southeast-asia-travel-mistakes-packing-weather-clothing-traditions-medicine-2024-4">solo international travel</a>, thanks to previous study abroad experiences and 14 years of intensive overseas work-related travel. <div type="image" title="Sonya Moore in Siem Reap, Cambodia" height="1280" width="1600" msid="115071450" hostid="261"></div><h2>The move opened a new chapter in my life</h2>As months unfolded, I discovered that when you leave space for it, life guides you to the places, people, and opportunities that are meant for you. Seven years later, I'm still living <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer-couldnt-afford-retirement-in-california-moved-abroad-travel-happy-2024-10">happily outside the US</a>. While my decision to leave opened up a horizon of experiences beyond my wildest dreams and led me to the man of my dreams, it hasn't all been a bed of roses. The first year, I lived off savings while traveling slowly through Asia. I started my travels in India, where I spent 10 days at a silent meditation retreat, attended teachings by the Dalai Lama, and took a <keyword id="20626363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yoga-teacher-training" source="keywords">yoga teacher training</keyword>. I promptly got hooked on teaching yoga. After four months in India, I continued <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-pack-traveling-in-southeast-asia-singapore-thailand-bali-2023-9">making my way through Asia</a> for eight more months. I swam in the crystal clear waters of the Maldives, visited healers in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-family-kids-bali-decompress-relocate-slow-life-work-remote-2024-10">Bali</a>, witnessed breathtaking sunrise views from mountaintops in Laos, went island-hopped through the Philippines, rode motorbikes around Thailand's islands, and discovered ancient pagodas in Myanmar The cost of living in much of Asia is so low that savings can stretch a long way. I have high standards for my accommodations, and while traveling, I usually spent around $20 to $25 per night on hotels. Lower-maintenance friends of mine found simpler places for $6 per night in India. Meals usually cost around $3. After six weeks in India, I considered a lunch bill of $5 to be expensive. <h2>There have been times along the way when I've felt lost </h2>From time to time, I experienced stretches of feeling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/relocation-moved-to-milan-living-abroad-emotionally-exhausting-unspoken-truths-2023-9">unsettled and lacking a sense of purpose</a>. Over the years, I learned that those periods of doubt and uncertainty will continue to surface. But I also learned to just keep trusting, and the way forward would eventually reveal itself. People often ask me if I was ever afraid while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-women-need-to-know-traveling-solo-southeast-asia-tips-2022-12">traveling alone through Asia</a>. I never was — except a couple of times in India when riding on some precariously high Himalayan roads with no guardrails. But of people? I never had a reason to be. After a year away, I found an opportunity to teach yoga in a small mountain town in Myanmar. Life there was quiet, simple, and beautiful. I lived there for 9 months, and I was profoundly happy most of the time. But there were times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/loneliness-how-to-make-friends-remote-worker-freelancer-new-city-2024-2">I felt lonely</a>. The locals were sweet and kind, with love in their eyes and actions, but I missed friends who spoke my language fluently, with whom I could have deep conversations over a glass of wine. And the dating scene? Nonexistent. <div type="image" title="Sonya Moore kissing a man at the airport" height="2118" width="1754" msid="115071453" hostid="261"></div><h2>I found love during my travels</h2>Another yoga teaching opportunity took me to Siem Reap, Cambodia. Siem Reap is not a big city, but after my small-town Myanmar life, it felt like Manhattan. There were so many restaurants, bars, social events, friends, and even some attractive single men. I fell in love with the town, the quality of life, and the locals. It was easy to get a tourist or work visa to live here long term, and it was almost as inexpensive as India and Myanmar. I was living in Siem Reap when COVID-19 hit. By that time, I was in a <keyword id="20752574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="long-distance-relationship" source="keywords">long-distance relationship</keyword> with a French man I met during my travels. After the closed borders of the pandemic kept us apart for 7 months, I moved to France to be with him. Our story was long and winding, but it felt like destiny. He <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/my-partner-couple-travel-together-full-time-one-date-2024-5">loves global travel</a> like I do. We've been together for four years and are living together in Papua New Guinea. Our plan is to go back to a nomadic slow-travel lifestyle. My career has gradually evolved to encompass creative pursuits that light me up inside: retreats, writing, photography, and yoga. I am deeply grateful to my former self for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-abroad-cheap-low-cost-living-high-quality-life-2024-1">choosing to leave the US</a>. I sometimes miss family and friends, but thanks to technology, our connection stays alive across the distance, and I go back to visit once a year. I still love America and feel lucky to have been born and raised there. But there's a big world out there waiting to be discovered. Do you have a personal essay about relocating to Asia that you want to share? Get in touch with the editor at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:akarplus@businessinsider.com">akarplus@businessinsider.com</a>. November 11, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mentioned Trump becoming president was not the reason Moore left, it was not the only reason.

I swore I would leave the US if Trump won the 2016 election. Here's how that worked out for me.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race.</li><li>Trump has a 66% chance of winning based on bets there. National polls generally show the race tied.</li></ul>I am not an expert in gambling, markets, or presidential politics. But I feel confident that I'm an expert in assessing the "vibe" of an online space.And when it comes to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">wagering site Polymarket</a> — to get a sense of the people who are placing wagers — I submit that the place to look is not the presidential race, which has drawn the most attention and money, but in the "Pop Culture" section.Let's look at some of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/markets/pop-culture">wagers</a>:<ul><li>Will Trump say "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/skibidi-toilet-is-good-actually-2023-10">skibidi</a>" before the election?</li><li>Will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the election?</li><li>Will Donald Trump say "mog" in 2024? ("<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/looksmaxxing-tiktok-trend-explained-men-trade-beauty-tips-2023-11">Mog" is Gen Z slang</a> for being better looking than someone else.)</li><li>Will the US ban <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/strong-zyn-sales-q3-philip-morris-record-stock-nicotine-pouch-2024-10">Zyn</a>?</li><li>Will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roaring-kitty-tweets-gamestop-amc-meme-stocks-crypto-sad-2024-5">Roaring Kitty</a> go to jail in 2024?</li><li>Will Trump do a podcast with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hawk-tuah-girl-viral-fame-meme-plans-merch-hailey-welch-2024-7">Hawk Tuah Girl</a>?</li><li>Will there be a Lunchly recall? (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mrbeasts-lunchly-launch-during-controversy-may-be-a-good-idea-2024-9">Lunchly</a> refers to the premade lunches from MrBeast, KSI, and Logan Paul. Some people on social media have said theirs were moldy.)</li></ul>You can get a pretty clear picture of the vibe on Polymarket, where people place bets using crypto. These are the interest areas of what Max Read calls "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://maxread.substack.com/p/hawk-tuah-and-the-zynternet">the Zynernet</a>" — crypto-loving, Zyn-chomping, Joe Rogan-listening, Barstool-reading, Draft Kings-playing, male Gen Z'ers. This online world isn't explicitly political or MAGA, but can be right-leaning. It's the young male podcast network that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-targets-young-men-theo-von-logan-paul-adin-ross-2024-8">Trump has tapped into with appearances on podcasts</a> hosted by Logan Paul, Theo Von, and Adin Ross.The "Pop Culture" bets aren't all Zynternet-focused. There are other more neutral ones, like wagers on the top-grossing movie of the year or the opening box office figures for "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wicked-movies-everything-to-know-cast-songs-release-date">Wicked</a>" later this month. But of the 43 bets available in the section, all but a few have a sort of terminally online bro-y flavor. (There are three bets about Taylor Swift, for example, but all of them are about her relationship with Travis Kelce.)<h2 id="932c78f7-54b1-4eca-9841-cabcdc028350">So why does this matter?</h2>Some people are paying attention to Polymarket because they think it might be giving real insight into the election — moreso than traditional polls. Polymarket's founder, Shayne Coplan, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/the-crypto-betting-platform-predicting-a-trump-win">The New Yorker</a>: "As price-discovery theory would go, a ton of clueless people trading would be more predictive and accurate than one expert."But recently, some curious stuff has happened: There's been talk of a single big bettor — a "whale" — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-odds-polymarket-whale-kamala-harris-polls-betting-markets-2024-10">putting down a bet worth around $30 million that Trump will win</a>. That kind of money from just one person could tip the scales. Trump's odds on Polymarket have gone from 48% on October 1 to 66% now, all while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html">national polls</a> are basically tied. US users also aren't allowed to use Polymarket, but I wonder how this is policed given the bets are in crypto.I asked Polymarket for comment. They haven't responded.Meanwhile, I'm not the only person who's noticed the vibes on the betting site. In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/polymarket-trump-odds-election-betting-vibes.html">New York Magazine, John Herrman pointed out</a> the comments section is also revealing:I can understand the logic that people who put their own money on a bet are going to do it passionately. A sports-betting New Yorker might put money on the Dodgers to win the World Series, even if they are rooting for the Yankees.But when you look at the vibe scene on Polymarket, it's hard not to imagine that some bettors have a worldview gleaned from consuming very specific kinds of media that would lead them to have certain ideas about how the election will go — ideas that don't line up with mainstream polling.For the record, I think the odds that Trump will say "skibidi" before the election are way too low.

Polymarket's pro-Trump election predictions aren't so surprising when you look at the rest of the site

After a full day of meetings at Julie, a startup that sells a morning-after pill, CEO Amanda E/J Morrison jumped a flight from New York to Boston and headed to a small, private college, where a trivia night awaited her. Dozens of students shuffled into a classroom with plates of chicken tenders, Texas toast, and bright blue boxes of the emergency contraceptive.Morrison had worked with the Planned Parenthood Generation Action club at Suffolk University to sponsor the event, part of Julie's efforts to win a new generation of consumers. However, she had another, more pressing reason for being there. Julie is doing more campus events to clear up some of the confusion about emergency contraception — namely, that it isn't medication abortion.Standing at the head of the classroom, Morrison read off a projector screen, "Emergency contraceptives like Julie are legal in how many states? 25, 48, 50, 37." Students tapped their answers into a quiz app. "It's 37," Lily, a spirited sophomore, whispered to her teammates.In a minute, the correct answer appeared on screen, and the quiet chatter rose to a clamor. Half the teams said 37 states."Fifty states, guys. It's everywhere," Morrison said.When asked why she said 37, Lily said, "Just the way things are going."In states that outlaw abortion, some patients and politicians worry that contraception could be in legal jeopardy, too. There's no federal law preserving access to birth control, rather, a patchwork of state laws and court decisions holding it in place. Another Trump term <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/29/trump-birth-control-contraception-00159555">could change that</a>.For Julie, "that's the million dollar question of this election," Morrison said.<div type="image" title="TK" height="2000" width="2667" msid="114460252" hostid="261" sizebytes="193282"></div>"We're not worried about some big ban happening in the first hundred days. But how those decisions trickle down — what is presented in Congress as a bill, how the Supreme Court reacts, what trickles down to the states — becomes a real secondary concern," she said.Founders of women's health startups feel doubly invested in this election, one of the closest presidential races of the century. Half a dozen founders and investors of women's health companies, all women, told Business Insider that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, it's business as usual. They said another Trump victory creates uncertainty for reproductive health startups, from period trackers to online abortion clinics to embryo banks.<div type="image" title="TK" height="1610" width="2147" msid="114460254" hostid="261" sizebytes="109206"></div>While Harris's presidential campaign has been marked by unrelenting support for reproductive healthcare, including contraception and abortions, Trump's position has been a moving target.The former president suggested <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/29/trump-birth-control-contraception-00159555">in May</a> that he was "looking at" restrictions on birth control, then walked that position back in a social media post later that day. During the September presidential debate, he called himself a "leader" on IVF, a move that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/12/trump-ivf-gop-roe-abortion-00178760">angered</a> parts of his base that have sought to restrict fertility treatments. He said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-says-he-would-veto-federal-abortion-ban/">in October</a> that he'd veto a national abortion ban after deflecting the question for months but would support states ordaining their own abortion bans.Trump's waffling on reproductive rights has put founders of women's health startups on notice. "It is one of the major issues that we're discussing and that our CEOs are focused on — how to continue to provide care to women, especially women of childbearing age," said Trish Costello, founder of Portfolia, an investing platform that pools money from female accredited investors.The day after the presidential debate, Mika Eddy was vibrating with the weight of the election. The race's outcome could drastically change reproductive rights, foreign policy, gun safety, and climate law — all issues close to Eddy, a 35-year-old Californian and mother of two.But Eddy also has skin in the game as the chief executive officer of Malama Health, a startup helping women with gestational diabetes access better care. Its doula network assists patients on Medicaid with applying for benefits such as diabetes-friendly meals and medical transport.Eddy worries that if Trump wins, he would restrict access to the coverage and benefits that her users rely on, weakening one of Malama Health's key services."There is this common misperception that, 'we're in California, we're in a liberal state, and so we're safe.' And I don't think that's the case," Eddy said.For some founders of women's health startups, this election is more than a political contest; it has ramifications for their livelihoods. With so much at stake, they're planning how to handle a scenario where states or courts might impose more limits on reproductive rights.<div type="image" title="US Vice President Kamala Harris taking pictures with some young teen girls." height="3000" width="4000" msid="114460257" hostid="261" sizebytes="755478"></div><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-telemedicine-startup-hey-jane-roe-v-wade-2022-10">Hey Jane</a> is a telehealth startup that connects patients to medical providers who offer online appointments and delivers abortion pills to their doorsteps. A year after the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion, Hey Jane started selling birth control and treatments for urinary tract infections, yeast infections, and herpes, both oral and genital. The new products cushion the business against a "plan E" scenario of a national abortion ban, said Carli Sapir, a Hey Jane investor and founding partner of Amboy Ventures."We're thinking about how to make sure those other verticals are in a good place to continue carrying the company forward," said Sapir.This time last year, one of Hey Jane's rivals, Choix, shut down <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vcs-backing-online-abortion-sites-say-its-good-business-2021-9">after three years in service</a>. The company said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/choix-closes-virtual-doors-launches-130300919.html">press release</a> that "the stigma and politics surrounding abortion care posed significant fundraising challenges." It raised a $1 million seed round in 2022.While direct providers of abortion, like Hey Jane, could see major restrictions or shutdowns to their core businesses if Trump returns to the White House, a wider range of companies expect to feel the ripple effects. Startups that seem removed from the front lines, such as those involved with period tracking and fertility treatments, are also preparing for potential challenges.<div type="image" title="Then-President Donald Trump addresses the anti-abortion &quot;March for Life&quot;" height="750" width="1000" msid="114460247" hostid="261" sizebytes="53678"></div>If a national abortion ban were to occur, apps like Flo Health or Clue might face increased scrutiny, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-lux-capital-deena-shakir-wrote-childrens-book-2024-9">Deena Shakir</a>, a general partner at Lux Capital. These apps track when women have their periods and when they miss them. In today's post-Roe America, privacy experts worry that such data could be used to suggest that someone has had or is thinking about having an abortion, potentially putting women at risk of prosecution in certain states.The stakes could be equally high for companies involved with fertility treatments.The demand for services like in vitro fertilization, or IVF, and surrogacy has been climbing for years as people have kids later in life and infertility rates increase. That's birthed a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fertility-startups-booming-despite-market-downturn-2023-6">global fertility market</a> that includes companies that operate clinics to provide services like egg freezing and IVF, companies that run labs and tests, and firms that help people pay for the procedures.However, the industry's future is uncertain following attacks on abortion access. The end of Roe v. Wade opened up the legal terrain for states to interfere with access to other reproductive care, said Lauren Berson Sugarman, founder and chief executive officer of Conceive, a startup that offers personalized fertility guidance, including text support from nurses and peer groups.In Alabama, the state Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos should be considered children. That put patients and fertility clinics on edge that they could be criminally charged for destroying extra embryos. A handful of Alabama clinics paused IVF treatments while patients throughout the South began moving their embryos to jurisdictions with more stable legal protections."We see a lot of patients come to us and say, should I move my embryos out of a red state? Because what happens if they come after IVF?" said Berson Sugarman.The push for "embryo rights" could have wide-reaching repercussions for startups like Maven Clinic or Carrot Fertility, which offer fertility benefits for employers, and TMRW Life Sciences, a biotech company creating robots for the safe storage of frozen sperm, eggs, and embryos.Moreover, it could influence the type of research that startups conduct and where. Alice Zheng, a principal at women's health investor RH Capital, explains how the shifting legal landscape might affect companies like Vitra Labs. As a biotech startup working on developing eggs from stem cells for IVF, "they're doing really cutting-edge research for fertility, but they need to think very carefully about where they set up shop," Zheng said. "Some of their research might involve certain types of tissue, which is more closely scrutinized in some areas than others."<div type="image" title="TK" height="2000" width="2667" msid="114460250" hostid="261" sizebytes="243576"></div>Two years ago, in the hours after the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to an abortion, Morrison's phone started ringing and didn't stop. Investors wanted to know if the ruling would kill Julie's launch in Walmart stores that fall. Job candidates wondered if the company would still exist in six months. Morrison's mom called, concerned for her daughter's future."For probably two weeks straight, I was just doing reassurance calls," Morrison said.While emergency contraception is not the abortion bill and is currently legal in all 50 states, it is continuously confused with the abortion pill, which can have damaging consequences. In June, the medical journal JAMA Network Open published a <a target="_blank" href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2820370?%20utm_source=For_The_Media">study</a> that found retail pharmacy fills of Plan B, a leading morning-after pill brand, fell by 65% in states with near-total abortion bans the year after the Dobbs decision, partly due to clinic closures and confusion about its legal status.That confusion could threaten Julie's sales, and puts the onus of the company to better educate consumers. It sponsors events like trivia nights and sorority house brunches. It has enlisted TikTok influencers to share videos of their drugstore hauls showing how easy it is to buy Julie. In one video, a young woman going back-to-school shopping walks off with a two-count pack of the emergency contraceptive pill. The caption reads, "double majors, not double strollers."Other startups are urging consumers to fight for reproductive rights at the polls. Eddy's Malama Health has reminders to register to vote in its app and will tell users where their nearest polling station is closer to election day. The company asks for their ZIP codes during onboarding, Eddy explained."When you have a baby, you're like, 'I want to vote, but I don't know where to go,'" Eddy said. She hopes the emails will get more pregnant women and new moms to head to the polls. Eddy added that the emails won't support a candidate and are meant as a "nonpartisan resource."<div type="image" title="TK" height="2000" width="2667" msid="114460255" hostid="261" sizebytes="192114"></div>Julie's content isn't political, either. It's not trying to change any minds about abortion rights. The goal is simply to spread awareness among young adults that emergency contraception helps prevent pregnancy, not end it. This way, Morrison said, a woman who is anti-abortion and has unprotected sex can feel confident taking Julie knowing that she isn't compromising her abortion stance.It was past 9 o'clock on a weekday, and the competition at trivia night was heating up. Students in teams of two or three screamed with delight as they watched their names climb the leaderboard. They competed to win prizes like sex toys and T-shirts with the phrase, "A Better Morning After.""Morning-after pills end pregnancy. True or false," the club president called out.Thirty seconds later, the screen showed that every team had answered correctly.Morrison pumped both fists in the air, beaming her approval.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/melia-russell">Melia Russell</a> is a senior correspondent at Insider covering startups and venture capital. She can be reached via the encrypted messaging app Signal at +1 603-913-3085 and email at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:mrussell@businessinsider.com">mrussell@businessinsider.com</a>.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/rebecca-torrence">Rebecca Torrence</a> is a correspondent at Business Insider writing about healthcare startups and venture capital. Send her an email at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:rtorrence@businessinsider.com">rtorrence@businessinsider.com</a>.

'The million-dollar question of this election': Women's health startups are confronting a shifting legal landscape   

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bluesky is surging in popularity, and it credits it all to Brazil.</li><li>The platform gained 2 million new users within days of X being banned in Brazil.</li></ul>Bluesky, the social media platform and aspiring Twitter alternative, has taken Brazil by storm within days of the country banning Elon Musk's X.The US-based platform <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://bsky.app/profile/bsky.app/post/3l2ye7wjt662c">said on Friday</a> that half a million new users had joined the platform — just one day after Brazil forced X to shut down in the country.By Monday, that number had increased to 2 million new users, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://bsky.app/profile/bsky.app/post/3l36zm4e6ee2w">Bluesky wrote in a post</a>. Bluesky is crediting Brazil for its sudden surge in users."Brazil, you're setting new all-time highs for activity on Bluesky!" the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://bsky.app/profile/bsky.app/post/3l2xndrs3oh2t">company wrote in a post </a>on its platform.The decentralized platform appears to be soaking up users with X and Musk locked in a feud with Brazil's government.Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-judge-orders-elon-musk-x-stop-operations-2024-8">ordered the country to block access to X last week</a> because the Musk-owned platform refuses to pay over $3 million in fines and enforce content moderation.And Musk — a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/free-speech-absolutist-elon-musk-censors-employees-critics-2022-3#:~:text=Elon%20Musk%20referred%20to%20himself,employees%20for%20disagreeing%20with%20him.">self-proclaimed "free-speech absolutist"</a> — has been slamming de Moraes on X, calling him a "so-called 'justice,'" a "scumbag," and an "evil dictator cosplaying as a judge." More seriously, Musk has accused de Moraes, without evidence, of "repeatedly and directly violat[ing] the laws of Brazil that he swore to uphold!" and of engaging "in serious, repeated &amp; deliberate interference" in the 2022 election that defeated far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro.Another of Musk's companies, satellite broadband firm <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-starlink-sanctions-amid-feud-elon-musk-x-2024-9">Starlink, has been caught up in the feud</a>.De Moraes ordered the freeze of Starlink's finances to use as possible payment for the fines X owes the Brazilian government, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/starlink-says-its-complying-with-order-block-access-x-brazil-2024-09-03/">Reuters reported</a>.On Monday, Starlink told Brazil's telecom regulator Anatel that it would not obey the country's order to block access to X, Reuters reported. But by Tuesday, Starlink had changed its tune, announcing in a post on X that it would comply with the order."Regardless of the illegal treatment of Starlink in freezing of our assets, we are complying with the order to block access to X in Brazil," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Starlink/status/1831053118265843722">Starlink wrote</a>. "We continue to pursue all legal avenues, as are others who agree that @alexandre's recent orders violate the Brazilian constitution."Bluesky was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://bsky.social/about/blog/2-7-2022-overview">initially created within Twitter with the help of founder</a> and then-CEO Jack Dorsey but has since launched as an independent company.Like X, the platform allows users to post, like, share, direct message, create lists and user profiles. But unlike X, it is a decentralized network that lets users sign up for their own third-party content moderation, set up their own servers to run the app, and customize how their feeds appear to them.On Tuesday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://bsky.app/profile/jaz.bsky.social/post/3l3a2i4bbv42k">Bluesky provided more numbers</a> showing just how much it had grown in the previous 96 hours, compared to a 96-hour period just one week prior.In the most recent 96-hour period, Bluesky said the platform had received 104.6 million likes compared to 13 million the same period a week before, 100.8 million follows compared to 1.4 million the week before, 11 million reposts compared to 1.3 million the week before, and 2.11 million new users compared to just 26,000 the week before."This really drives home how insane the increase in activity around here has been," Bluesky wrote in the post.

The hot social media platform after Brazil's X ban: Bluesky 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>John Oliver, the host of Last Week Tonight, turned his satirical eye to India's elections. </li><li>Oliver called out the country's polarizing leader, Narendra Modi, for censorship and anti-Muslim violence. </li></ul>TV host John Oliver took aim at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-congress-2024-6">India's elections and its prime minister, Narendra Modi, </a>on Sunday night, warning that the nation was "sliding towards authoritarianism.""Basically, if you criticize Modi, there's a good chance that things are going to be very unpleasant for you," Oliver said on the latest episode of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-oliver-hbo-streaming-youtube-jon-stewart-daily-show-free-2024-2">Last Week Tonight</a>. "Meaningful criticism of Modi is scarce on TV in India."In his classic "roast" style, Oliver noted Modi's increasing tendency towards censorship and anti-Muslim rhetoric."There's been a noticeable shift in his rhetoric this election season," said the HBO host."Modi and his party have seemed increasingly comfortable threatening democratic institutions by, among other things, stifling political opposition and freedom of the press," he added, pointing to cases of intimidation toward rival political parties and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/bbc-tax-raids-shine-light-indian-media-freedom-under-modi-some-journalists-say-2023-03-04/https://www.reuters.com/world/india/bbc-tax-raids-shine-light-indian-media-freedom-under-modi-some-journalists-say-2023-03-04/">raids at critical news networks</a>."It's worth remembering: that is not a bug of Modi's leadership, it is a feature," he said.Oliver also joked about Modi's tendency to take credit for things, showing an ad that suggested the leader had personally halted the war in Ukraine to bring home an Indian student.He also ridiculed Modi's economic policies, saying that despite the narrative around India's recent growth, the country has "fallen in the Global Hunger Index, and now sits behind North Korea and war-torn Sudan.""Anyone can get rid of 'all' poverty if you just change the definition of poor people to something else like, I dunno, 'fire hydrants' or 'opposite snakes,'" joked the British comedian.Finally, Oliver called for an end to the "uncritical, fawning praise" for Modi coming from the international community.Over the past six weeks, hundreds of millions of Indian citizens have been voting in the country's election, and on Tuesday, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-congress-2024-6">Modi secured a third term,</a> though his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">fell well short of securing an expected majority</a> in India's 543-member parliament.Prior to voting, Modi said the BJP sought to win around 400 seats, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-india-69072275">per the BBC.</a> In reality, the party gained only 240 seats, and must now seek to build a coalition government. Modi, who has been in office since 2014, is a highly popular leader among a large segment of the Indian population. He's credited with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-economy-growth-booming-modi-seize-moment-problems-davos-2024-2">driving forward India's economy</a> and raising its standing on the global stage.However, others have criticized Modi for divisive Hindu nationalist policies, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-citizenship-laws-muslims-modi-2020-2">persecution of Muslims</a>, erosion of the judiciary, and suppression of protests and the free press."It should be possible to acknowledge the good things that Modi has managed to do for India, while also acknowledging that many Indians live in active fear of what he seems more than happy to represent," Oliver said.

John Oliver warns India is 'sliding towards authoritarianism' as Modi wins in tighter-than-expected election

If there is one word to aptly describe the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha <keyword id="20515965" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-results" source="keywords">election results</keyword>, specifically for the incumbent party, it would be jolting, startling, and perhaps, even surprising. The exit polls were wide off the mark, and then some. Less than a week ago, India reported a remarkable <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> rate of 8.2% for the fiscal year 2023-24. Over the weekend, exit polls predicted a clear and easy majority for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its alliance NDA. Consequently, benchmark indexes, Sensex and <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword>, both zoomed more than 3 per cent on Monday, breaching the all-time high records. On Tuesday, the tides turned! Putting a harsh full stop on the ruling party’s “abki baar 400 paar” narrative, the electoral situation on Tuesday evening shows less than 300 seats to the NDA and over 230 seats to the opposing INDIA bloc. What’s even more concerning for the ruling party is its tally dropping from 303 in 2019 to less than 245 this year. Consequently, on Tuesday, Sensex witnessed the steepest drop in over four years since the pandemic, recording a drop of 4,389 to settle just over 72,000. Nifty also dipped by almost 6%, standing at 21,884 points. If the trends hold, the BJP will lack a clear, simple majority on its own for the next five years, even if it manages to form a government with its pre-poll allies. The question is, how stable the new government would be, what would be the overall impact of this verdict on India’s economy, and what’s the story behind the jitters exhibited by the markets on Tuesday? <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="India’s incredible economic growth story" comment="subhead" text="India’s incredible economic growth story">India’s incredible <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> story </cmsannotation>Perched to be the world’s 3rd largest economy by 2027, India’s current GDP value stands at $3.9 trillion. As per FM <keyword id="20200167" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Seetharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Seetharaman</keyword>, the Indian economy is anticipated to grow at a rate of close to 7% in FY25 and hit $7 trillion by 2030. The <keyword id="3530620" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-Value-Added" source="Orion">Gross Value Added</keyword> (GVA) data supports the optimistic outlook, with a growth rate of 7.2% in FY24 compared to 6.7% in FY23. And notably, this strong economic growth has come at a time when most of the major economies across the globe are grappling with a slowdown. While few expect India to maintain a robust growth of 8.2%, most economists agree that GDP growth could moderate to around 7% in FY25. But most of these growth forecasts are contingent on a stable government and policy reforms at the centre. So, does the sharp fall in benchmark indices on Tuesday foretell a twist in India’s growth story? <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Is there a twist in the tale?" comment="subhead" text="Is there a twist in the tale?">Is there a twist in the tale? </cmsannotation>Firstly, the <keyword id="16791710" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-inflows" source="Orion">foreign portfolio inflows</keyword> (FPI), indicative of the global confidence reposed in the Indian markets, have been on a consistent decline over the past 3 months. As of 4th June 2024, foreign institutional investors had withdrawn a total of Rs 14,339 crores from the Indian equity markets while investing Rs 55,273 crores in debt instruments, which are traditionally reflective of safety, security, and a low-risk and change appetite. Foreign institutional investors had also withdrawn Rs 25,586 crores during May 2024, and Rs 8,671 crores during April 2024. If anything, the Indian market stands atop the strong confidence of domestic investors. The AUM (assets under management) of the Indian mutual fund industry stood at a record high of around $57 lakh crores in April 2024, even as the SIP AUM hit a record high of Rs 11.26 lakh crore. "The steep fall is due to the results so far falling short of the exit polls which the market had discounted yesterday. If BJP doesn't get a majority on its own there will be disappointment and this is getting reflected in the market. Also it is possible that Modi 3.O may not be as reform-oriented as the market expected and may turn more welfare- oriented," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail" comment="subhead" text="Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail">Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail </cmsannotation>But does this mean India’s growth story stands threatened or even jeopardized? Even though social media is flooded with memes that might lead one to believe it is all over for India’s story, the country remains the fastest growing economy amongst all G-20 nations in 2024, compelling almost all rating agencies to positively hike the country’s potential growth rate. But, equally noticeable is the fact that India’s private consumption, a major indicator of the economy’s growth, jumped by only 3.5% over the last 3 months of 2024. India now makes up 6.7% of the world’s GDP by purchasing power parity (PPP). As figures go, India is set to become a $10 trillion economy by 2030. Veteran investors like Raamdeo Agrawal, who heads Motilal Oswal Financial Services, believe that India’s potential growth rate of 8-8.5% is not going anywhere and that NDA’s leadership is here to stay. In his words, if an investor has managed to make 4-5x in the last 3-4 years, one will have to give in 20-30%. But that is where you will have to persist as an investor. "With the NDA still looking to form a government, though with the important support of coalition partners, markets look jittery about the prospects of strong decision making. Markets believe that the reformistic approach, which was a hallmark of the previous two terms, might take a backseat in the third term. However, our sense is that it is still early to jump to conclusions and should ideally wait for a clearer picture," said Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox. But all in all, the NDA government is most likely to stay for the full term, and those who bet on the same stand to stay safe despite the surprisingly strong performance of the INDIA alliance. However, in the end, the only one who wins in the market stays put in the market in the long run. Because NDA, or INDIA, compounding is here to stay, all set to immensely benefit long-term investors. (With inputs ANI)

Economic implications of Lok Sabha Election 2024 results: Would lack of a clear majority for BJP impact India’s growth story?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Carolina is a critical part of Trump's electoral calculus for winning a second term.</li><li>But Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's troubles could have a "reverse coattail" effect among Republicans.</li></ul>North Carolina Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson — a staunch conservative and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-robinson-north-carolina-governors-race-past-comments-trump-2024-2024-3">ally</a> of former President Donald Trump — is no stranger to controversy.During a 2019 Facebook Live video, Robinson said abortion "is about killing the child because you weren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down." In 2023, he said God "formed" him to fight against LGBTQ+ acceptance while also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wral.com/story/god-formed-me-to-fight-lgbtq-issues-nc-s-mark-robinson-says-as-2024-governor-s-race-looms/20779390/">noting</a> that it made him "sick" to see any church fly a Rainbow flag. And earlier this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-politics-and-policy/mark-robinson-transgender-comments-spark-gop-backlash-rcna138610">he called for the arrest</a> of transgender women who choose to use women's bathrooms.Despite Robinson's history of polarizing comments, he easily won the state's GOP gubernatorial primary in March. But <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/19/politics/kfile-mark-robinson-black-nazi-pro-slavery-porn-forum/index.html">in a bombshell CNN story</a> published last week, the network reported that Robinson made a series of racist, antisemitic, and sexually explicit comments on a pornographic site more than a decade ago — before he was in public office.On the site Nude Africa, Robinson <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-mark-robinson-donald-trump-advertisement-north-carolina-governor-2024-9">describes himself</a> as a "black NAZI!" and argues that "slavery is not bad," among other remarks.Robinson has denied the accusation and vowed to remain in the race. But even before the report was published, he was behind in the polls against his Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Josh Stein. Meanwhile, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race in North Carolina.Here's a look at how Robinson's scandal could not only imperil Trump's ability to win the Tar Heel State but also potentially obliterate the former president's chances to win the general election.<h2 id="aae2c330-7b3b-4c15-a4c7-ca21beb74295">The swing-state dilemma</h2>Robinson rose to prominence in GOP circles after his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmE9tK-O58Q">forceful defense of gun rights</a> during a 2018 address to the Greensboro City Council went viral. In his speech, he decried what he said were attempts to enact gun control, arguing that criminals would simply ignore the laws.The speech helped pave the way for Robinson's 2020 victory in a race for lieutenant governor, which he won by three percentage points even as Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper was reelected to a second term.That year, Trump also won North Carolina — albeit narrowly — against now-President Joe Biden. Anchored by the support of rural conservatives, the then-president eked out a one-point victory in what has become one of the nation's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">premier swing states</a>.Robinson's political brand is rooted in a more confrontational Republican style, though. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-carolina-governors-race-robinson-stein-cooper-abortion-guns-lgbtq-2023-4">His biggest advantage</a> is with social conservatives, not the sort of college-educated suburban voters who have turned away from the GOP in the Trump era.It's encapsulated in earlier polling. A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-north-carolina-likely-electorate.html">New York Times/Siena College poll</a> released in August showed Stein leading Robinson 49% to 39% among likely voters. A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3904">Quinnipiac University poll</a> released earlier this month showed Stein up by 10 points (51% to 41%) among likely voters. And a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-2024-swing-state-polls-trump-and-harris-locked-in-tight-presidential-race/">Emerson College poll</a> showed Stein ahead of Robinson by eight points (48% to 40%) among likely voters.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump at a campaign rally." height="3819" width="5728" msid="113573925" hostid="261" sizebytes="357806"></div>Robinson's campaign has stumbled in the state for some time — and it's unclear what the ramifications of the latest allegations will be for his candidacy. But state Treasurer Dale Folwell, who lost to Robinson in this year's gubernatorial primary, last week <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article292757504.html">told the News &amp; Observer</a> that taxpayers and donors were "getting fleeced" by the lieutenant governor.Such a remark from a fellow statewide GOP official usually doesn't bode well for party unity. And Trump is now caught in that web.<h2 id="a28321c7-1a5e-471b-b82b-af47656c6e29">A tale of 'reverse coattails'</h2>When popular candidates are running at the top of the ticket — notably in presidential, gubernatorial, or Senate races — they often boost down-ballot candidates.A strong candidate leading the party on the ballot can have an immeasurable impact on turnout and enthusiasm for candidates who need help getting over the finish line.In 2020, Robinson outperformed Trump in North Carolina, but the former president also brought out voters who undoubtedly boosted the lieutenant governor in areas where he wasn't as well known.Now, Robinson's latest scandal threatens Trump's hold on a state that Harris has targeted since her campaign began in July. The vice president has reversed the slide that the party faced when Biden was the nominee, and recent polls taken in North Carolina have showed her tied with Trump or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-north-carolina-likely-electorate.html">with a slight lead</a>.Harris' competitiveness in the state is driven by her advantages with women, young voters, urban voters, and college-educated suburbanites. And she's running a distinctly pro-choice campaign, in contrast to Robinson — an anti-abortion champion who also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1819379051594711415">revealed last month</a> that his wife had an abortion 30 years ago.Pessimism over Robinson's campaign could depress Trump's numbers in the state, creating a "reverse coattail" effect — especially if Robinson loses by a sizable margin.The GOP is up against a Harris campaign that's flush with cash and has 26 field offices and over 200 paid staffers in North Carolina. The Harris campaign also released an ad seeking to tie Robinson to Trump, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFKkKJi7698">weaving in old footage</a> where the ex-president said the lieutenant governor was "better than Martin Luther King."Democrats believe that Harris' presence on the ballot will be able to help them in other races."[W]hat's very exciting to me is that we have a lot of people that are interested in the top of the ticket, but that are also getting educated about the importance of down-ballot," North Carolina Democratic Party chair Anderson Clayton <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc-podcast/why-is-this-happening/building-new-south-anderson-clayton-podcast-transcript-rcna170724">recently told MSNBC's Chris Hayes</a>.Should Harris win North Carolina and its 16 electoral votes, she'll likely already be on her way to a national victory, given the state's slight Republican lean in presidential races. However, although she'd clearly like to do so, Harris doesn't have to win the state to win the election.But North Carolina is critical for Trump. It has been a Southern anchor of support in his last two presidential runs. And the state's penchant for close elections is a reflection of just how much Robinson's woes could ultimately decide Trump's political fate.During a Saturday rally in Wilmington, Trump seemed to acknowledge that reality. Robinson was not present at the event. And the former president didn't mention the lieutenant governor's name.

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