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New Delhi: After a wave of initial public offerings (IPOs) in recent weeks, the primary market will experience a brief slowdown, with only two new public issues scheduled for the next week, aiming to raise Rs 365 crore. There were 12 IPOs in the mainboard segment and 40 in the SME (small and medium enterprise) segment in September. IPOs scheduled for next week, beginning October 7, are <keyword id="22922418" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Garuda-Construction" source="keywords">Garuda Construction</keyword> and Engineering on the main board and <keyword id="23436926" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shiv-Texchem" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Shiv Texchem" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Shiv Texchem">Shiv Texchem</keyword> on the SME segment. Garuda Construction is seeking to raise Rs 264 crore, and Shiv Texchem is aiming for over Rs 101 crore through their respective IPOs available for public subscription during October 8-10. The stock market has seen a significant correction in the <keyword id="19911354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market" source="keywords">equity market</keyword> since the start of October amid intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. Despite the temporary slowdown, overall, the outlook for the <keyword id="19926041" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="IPO-market" source="keywords">IPO market</keyword> is promising, with 26 firms proposing to raise Rs 72,000 crore presently holding Sebi's approval while another 55 companies looking to garner about Rs 89,000 crore are awaiting the regulator's clearance, according to the Primedatabase. This month will see <keyword id="19908548" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hyundai-Motor-India" source="keywords">Hyundai Motor India</keyword> Ltd, the Indian arm of South Korean automaker Hyundai, hitting the primary market to raise around Rs 25,000 crore. The company's IPO is likely to be launched on October 14, according to sources. If the offering proceeds as planned, it will surpass Life Insurance Corporation's (LIC) public offering of Rs 21,000 crore, becoming the largest IPO in India's history. Moreover, 63 companies have already mobilised around Rs 64,000 crore via mainboard, marking a 29 per cent increase from Rs 49,436 crore collected by 57 firms through the route in 2023. The strong momentum in IPO markets is being driven by several key macroeconomic, sector-specific factors and the willingness of funds to look at new ideas. In particular, strong inflows into domestic mutual funds and robust capital formation across corporate India are playing key roles, experts said. Garuda Construction and Engineering's IPO is a mix of fresh issue of 1.83 crore equity shares and an offer of sale (OFS) of 95 lakh equity shares by promoter PKH Ventures. The price band has been fixed at Rs 92 to Rs 95 per share. About Rs 100 crore from its fresh issuance proceeds will be utilised for working capital requirements and the balance towards general corporate purposes, including unidentified inorganic acquisitions. Shiv Texchem's IPO is a completely new offering of over 61 lakh shares and is a book-built issue of Rs 101.35 crore. It has set a price band of Rs 158 to Rs 166 per equity share for the IPO. Further, the SME IPO of Khyati Global Ventures, which opened for public subscription on October 4, will close on October 8. Additionally, six companies from the SME segment are set to list in the coming week. HVAX Technologies and Saj Hotels will debut on October 7, followed by Subam Papers and Paramount Dye Tec on October 8. NeoPolitan Pizza and Foods will begin trading on October 9, with Khyati Global Ventures to follow on October 11.

IPO market braces for brief slowdown, 2 new issues targeting Rs 365 crore next week

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Analysts are increasingly recommending defensive stocks to blunt the impact of an economic slowdown.</li><li>Among defensive sectors, consumer staples have risen sharply recently. </li></ul>Amid fears of a recession and increased market volatility, analysts have been pointing to defensive stocks as a safe bet to hedge macro risk.Among defensive sectors — which include things like real estate and financials — investors recently have been pouring into consumer staples in particular.The S&amp;P 500's consumer staples sector has risen roughly 4.1% in the last month, handily outpacing the S&amp;P 500, which is up just over 1% in that time.Retailers like Walmart and Target have skyrocketed 9.2% and 5.7% respectively in the last month, while consumer goods producers like Clorox and Coca-Cola are up 11.2% and 4.5%."The US consumer is reacting to the softer labor market, exhausted pandemic savings, and high interest rates. Signs of this reaction are visible across many angles, including the degree of outperformance in staples versus discretionary stocks," Bank of America strategists said in a note earlier this month.Defensive stocks historically do well in times of economic uncertainty, which has led to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/safe-defensive-stocks-ai-investing-rally-nvidia-semiconductors-selloff-outlook-2024-9">a growing chorus of analysts </a>recommending investors take positions in more "boring" companies, and resist the allure of high-flying bets on things like artificial intelligence."Lately, the market has skewed much more defensively as it has worried more about growth and less about high inflation or rates," Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson said in a Monday note."Since the spring, the relative performance of defensives over cyclicals has been the strongest since the last recession ended," he added.Last week, Wilson said investors should <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-stocks-overcooked-nvidia-seminconductors-morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-2024-9?_gl=1*1uze75i*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjU3MzcyNC4xNDcuMS4xNzI2NTc4MTEzLjUwLjAuMA..">reallocate AI investments</a> toward quality defensive stocks, including staples.That redirection could broaden a market rally that's been largely driven by tech stocks this year. The S&amp;P Global Semiconductor Index is down 6.26% for the month, with the tech sector seeing outflows of $2.97 billion in the last two weeks, according to LSEG Lipper data cite by The Financial Times. Consumer staples, meanwhile, have seen $1.43 billion of inflows in the same time period.This week, Bank of America equity strategy chief Savita Subramanian <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/safe-dividends-bank-america-strategy-chief-savita-subramanian-federal-reserve-2024-9">similarly advocated for defensive stocks</a>."I know this is the most boring call of all time, but sometimes boring is good," Subramanian said in a Bloomberg interview on Monday.With the Federal Reserve likely to finally cut rates at its meeting this week, defensive stocks could be poised for further growth."Defensives tend to outperform cyclicals fairly persistently both before and after the cut," Wilson said.

Investors are pouring into this defensive corner of the stock market amid fears of an economic slowdown

<keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> are currently making a beeline for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword>, enthused by the gush of <keyword id="23496485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stimulus" source="keywords">financial stimulus</keyword> injected by the government into the Chinese economy. While this may have temporarily sent their stock markets soaring, a recent report by the <keyword id="19899824" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Bank">World Bank</keyword> notes that this might not be enough to push back the <keyword id="19904090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-slowdown" source="keywords">economic slowdown</keyword> that has already set in. China's growth rate is projected to slack further to 4.3% in 2025, down from its present rate of 4.8%. The <keyword id="19916574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="OECD" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="OECD" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="OECD">OECD</keyword> also expects the country's growth to slow down to 4.5% in 2025 Experts believe that the recent economic push by the government, which includes lowering reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% to 6.6%, lowering mortgage rates, injecting $142 billion into banks, among others, are too little to sustain long-term recovery. Notably, lowering RRR frees up $140 billion for banks to lend, while reducing mortgages and minimum down payments for housing purchases are directed to spur up the Chinese real estate segment. Per <keyword id="19906485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Goldman-Sachs" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Goldman Sachs" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Goldman Sachs">Goldman Sachs</keyword>, weak domestic demand, dwindling consumer confidence and spending and an endless real-estate crisis are some of the main reasons for the slowdown.The average Chinese citizen still grapples with job insecurity, stagnant salaries, and depreciating real estate and equity values. For instance, China's last public holiday of the year, the Golden Week, which ended on October 7 and commemorates the nation's founding, saw 2% less spending per domestic trip, as compared to pre-pandemic levels. "Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlight the still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading in the country,” the analysts at GS noted. <h2>Its all temporary</h2>The <keyword id="21360606" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hang-Seng-index" source="keywords">Hang Seng index</keyword>, which is up by 4.22% today, has been seeing a meteoric rise over the past few weeks. Inching up by a little over 24% over the last month, the Chinese markets have been seeing an significant influx of foreign investment, largely at the expense of other emerging markets like India. Foreign investors had offloaded shares worth Rs 27,142 crore between the first and third of this month, after foreign investments reached a staggering record-high of Rs 93,538 crore in September, as per NSDL data. Over the last 10 days, FIIs have constantly been net sellers, while DIIs have been net buyers. As of October 10th, DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) have put in Rs 50,183 crores in Indian markets, almost balancing out Rs 49,305.29 crore withdrawn by foreign investors. But whether this trend of FII inflow in China continues will largely depend on the fundamentals their economy, an area where India has an edge, thanks to strong confidence of domestic investors. Viram Shah, CEO of Vested Finance highlights that while the Hang Seng index's recent 26% surge over the last month has caught investors' attention, and while this bullish trend is expected to continue, driven by low Chinese stock valuations and hopes for economic improvement from government stimulus, there lies a long road ahead. "Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out $5.4 billion from Indian equities over five consecutive sessions, ending Monday, October 7. While this suggests a possible rotation of funds from India to China, how long this shift will last will depend on the Chinese government’s ability to resolve the structural economic issues. While the market rally is encouraging, more policy steps are needed to boost economic activity and confidence in China", he added.

All eyes on China: Rush of foreign investors can do little to stave off a slowdown, says World Bank

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose 1% as September jobs report eased fears of an economic slowdown.</li><li>The US added 254,000 jobs, surpassing estimates. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.</li></ul>US stocks surged about 1% on Friday after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">the September jobs</a> report soothed fears of an economic slowdown.All three major averages closed slightly higher for the week to cap off a four-week winning streak.The US economy added 254,000 jobs last month, well ahead of economist estimates of 150,000 jobs. The strong job gains pushed the unemployment rate lower to 4.1% from 4.2%.The leisure and hospitality sector saw the most job gains in September at 78,000, followed by health care, which added about 72,000 jobs, while government jobs rose by 31,000.Economists were mostly thrilled with the jobs report, with many arguing that the decline in the unemployment rate while inflation has continued to trend lower was evidence of productivity gains."The fact that inflation is easing at the same time means productivity growth is strong, and that should keep the Fed on track for more rate cuts — an added tailwind for the economy and markets," Carson Group strategist Sonu Varghese told Business Insider.In terms of future rate cuts, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-fed-rate-cut-outlook-november-labor-market-2024-10">market slashed its expectations of another jumbo 50 basis point cut</a> at the Federal Reserve's next FOMC meeting in November.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a 50-basis point cut dropped to 0% from 53% last week. Consensus now expects two 25-basis point rate cuts from the Fed at their next two FOMC meetings before year-end."This solid payroll report validates an potential half point reduction in fed funds was completely unwarranted. Fed funds futures market is responding accordingly," LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said.ING's chief economist, James Knightley, said the jobs report was "unambiguously strong.""On the face of this the Fed should be hiking rates with these sorts of figures, not cutting rates," Knightley said in a note on Friday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,751.07, up 0.9% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,352.75, up 0.81% (_341.16 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,137.85, up 1.22% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spirit-airlines-chapter-11-bankruptcy-billion-debt-restructuring-2024-10">Spirit Airlines stock plunged after a report said it was considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-payroll-report-fed-rate-cut-outlook-labor-market-2024-10">Why one firm is skeptical about the blockbuster jobs report and is still expecting another jumbo rate cut.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-outlook-moscow-sanctions-west-firms-uchicago-2024-10">Russia is facing a 'time bomb' at the heart of its economy amid its ongoing war with Ukraine, an economist said.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/costco-starts-selling-platinum-bars-gold-silver-retail-success-2024-10">Costco is selling platinum bars for $1,090 as it diversifies its booming precious-metals business.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-jensen-huang-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-2024-10">Nvidia stock moved higher after CEO Jensen Huang said demand for its next-generation GPU chip was "insane."</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was up 1.00% to $74.45 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 0.55% to $78.05 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was down 0.39% to $2,668.80 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 13 basis points at 3.98%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was higher by 2.59% to $62,320. </li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks notch 4-week win streak after strong jobs report eases fears of an economic slowdown

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Payouts to partners at the Big Four consultancies are falling.</li><li>Annual returns are being affected by a slowdown in sales and an increase in the number of partners.</li></ul>Partner payouts at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-four-consultancies-deloitte-ey-cut-staff-pwc-accenture-2024-10">Big Four consultancies</a> are falling as demand for professional services declines and firms increase the number of partners.At EY, partner payouts in the UK, where the global consulting and accountancy firm is headquartered, were down 5% this year. UK partners received an average of £723,000 ($938,000) compared to £761,000 ($987,000) the previous year.The firm said in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2024/10/ey-uk-net-revenues-grew-3-percent-in-a-challenging-market">a press release</a> that the decrease in pay reflected a rise in the number of partners during the 2024 financial year. EY now has 903 partners as of June 2024, up from 866 at the same point in 2023, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/39095b58-5940-46f3-92e5-759a2923334d">the FT</a> reported.Revenue growth at EY fell from 16% in the previous financial year to just 3% in FY2024. The drop in performance was driven by declines in some of EY's key divisions, with its consulting and strategy business decreasing by 4% and transactions decreasing by 13%."With depressed UK and global deal activity and weak levels of corporate confidence during FY24, we have responded to the market to ensure we have the right platform for continued long-term growth and profitability," said Hywel Ball, EY's outgoing UK managing partner.Senior employees at the Big Four consultancies, which are all privately held, can be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-get-onto-partner-track-make-millions-management-consulting-mckinsey">promoted to partner status</a>, and some are offered equity ownership in the business. In addition to salary and bonuses, equity partners traditionally receive a share of annual profits.At PwC and Deloitte, partners have also seen their payouts drop this year as growth slows.UK partners at PwC took home an average of £862,000 ($1.11 million) this financial year, 5% less than the same period in 2023. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pwc.co.uk/who-we-are/annual-report.html">PwC reported</a> that its total revenue growth was down to 9% compared to 16% growth in 2023.At Deloitte, partner payouts were down by 4.5% to around £1 million ($1.3 million), leaving equity partners taking home roughly £50,000 less than the previous year.The fall in pay comes as the Big Four — which consists of Deloitte, EY, KPMG, and PwC — attempt to balance operations following the end of the pandemic-era rush on advisory services.Many <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consulting-firms-mckinsey-bcg-accenture-workers-leaving-2024-9">consultancies hired rapidly</a> to meet soaring demand in the early 2020s. As the workload slowed, revenues declined. The major firms have been making adjustments in order to balance operations, such as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ey-graduate-hires-start-dates-delayed-slowdown-strategy-consulting-2024-10">delaying start dates</a> for new hires and laying off employees. However, the impact of policies is not expected to be immediate.Despite the current slowdown in growth, many firms believe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-questions-consulting-firms-are-answering-for-clients-2024-6">AI</a> will provide a necessary boost to business as more companies look to consultants for advice on how best to get started and optimize their operations.

Partner pay at Big 4 firms is dropping, the latest sign of the consulting slowdown

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prada Group reported an 18% jump in sales in Q3.</li><li>This was largely due to the success of its sister brand, Miu Miu.</li></ul>Prada Group is defying the luxury slowdown thanks to its Miu Miu brand. While its peers like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lvmh-luxury-louis-vuitton-struggles-china-slowdown-2024">LVMH</a> and Kering reported weak Q3 results, driven in no small part by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/whats-behind-china-luxury-goods-slowdown-economy-changing-consumer-tastes-2024-10">slumping demand in China</a>, Prada is joining <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hermes-escapes-luxury-industry-slump-lvmh-kering-struggle-2024-10">Hermès</a> as one of the few luxury houses to be thriving right now. Retail sales across the Italian fashion group grew 18% in the most recent quarter. Sales were up 2% at its namesake brand but it was Miu Miu that stole the show — reporting a 105% increase in sales in Q3 versus the year before. <div type="image" title="A model walks the runway during the Miu Miu Womenswear Spring/Summer 2022 show as part of Paris Fashion Week on October 5, 2021, in Paris, France." height="1921" width="1280" msid="114816140" hostid="261" sizebytes="86082"></div>The more youthful and affordable sister brand of Prada was founded by Miuccia Prada, the granddaughter of the group's founder, in 1992.Its recent success can be partly credited to its burgeoning Gen Z fan base and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prada-miu-miu-stock-beating-luxury-slump-lvmh-kering-2024">cult following behind products like its micro-skirt</a>, which went viral after debuting in 2021 and was worn by Emily Ratajkowski, Hunter Schafer, and Hailey Bieber.Blanca Zugaza Escribano, a fashion and luxury consultant at Metyis, told BI that Miu Miu is a prime example of a luxury brand that already has its finger on the pulse of what excites Gen Z — a consumer base that is becoming increasingly important for luxury brands to appeal to. But the brand's success seems to have even taken company execs by surprise. "I would lie if we said that we would have predicted to double our business year on year," Andrea Guerra, CEO of Prada, said during a call with investors on Wednesday.Things are going so well that analysts were told Prada plans to increase the size of Miu Miu stores and open up new ones in some regions where it doesn't have a presence.Prada Group's CFO Andrea Bonini said Miu Miu's performance has benefited Prada, boosting profit margins and enabling the company to invest more in its Prada brand. "Likewise, Miu Miu would probably not be experiencing this type of growth today if it hadn't been part of a larger group," Bonini added.In a note to clients on Wednesday, Bernstein analyst Luca Solca said that the brand's current trajectory "confirms our view that the market is underappreciating the growth that Miu Miu can generate in the next 12 to 18 months.""At the same time, it also confirms our worry that Prada — which is still the very bulk of the business — could be well past its peak growth potential," he added.

Miu Miu is hot right now — and Prada's chic sibling is helping it buck the luxury slowdown

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Car companies are cutting costs heading into the end of the year.</li><li>A price war in China poses a threat to profitability.</li></ul>It's been a busy few days for auto companies.Ford and Volkswagen each pulled back vehicle production plans this week. After the last shift on Friday, November 15, Ford will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-pauses-electric-f-150-lightning-production-cuts-manager-bonuses-2024-10">pause F-150 Lightning production</a> until next year, while VW said it is considering historic plant closures in Germany that would lay off hundreds of workers.Meanwhile, Tesla fell behind China's BYD in quarterly revenue for the first time, and GM CEO Mary Barra warned of an unsustainable price war in the Chinese EV market.Amid the flurry of news, two themes stand out: the China threat and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-vehicle-misconceptions-about-the-ev-transition-market-sales-2024-5">EV slowdown</a> loom large for automakers.<h2 id="26021238-9d8a-4010-bec4-f6bfd9ac81e2">Another EV price war threatens profitability</h2>In China, the world's largest auto market, EV leaders <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-byd-is-beating-tesla-ev-rivals-china-2024-11">BYD</a> and Tesla are engaged in a bitter price war that initially weighed heavily on BYD's bottom line.But by August, BYD (which also sells hybrid cars) reported its best-ever passenger car sales, driving up revenue 24% in the third quarter to $28.24 billion, topping Tesla for the first time. It's the latest sign that after nearly two years of deflating the value of its cars, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sales-miss-ev-slowdown-new-wave-customers-2024-4">Tesla is finally starting to feel the pinch</a> of a slowdown in the EV market.The Chinese EV market is more competitive than ever, according the GM's Barra, who <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/general-motors-gm-ceo-mary-barra-ev-china-not-sustainable-2024-10">questioned the sustainability</a> of a broader price war in the region driven by an uptick in Chinese EV startups selling inexpensive vehicles.Inexpensive Chinese EVs have long threatened the US EV market. They aren't just well-priced; many are also good-looking and well-equipped. Ford CEO Mark Ford said last week that he's been driving the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-ev-xiaomi-su7-driven-by-fords-ceo-faster-model-2024-10">Chinese-made Xiaomi SU7</a> for six months and doesn't want to give it up.Some car companies already sell <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cars-imported-from-china-us-ev-tariffs-buick-lincoln-volvo-2024-5">China-built EVs</a> in the US, but Biden Administration bans on Chinese vehicles keep competitors like BYD from entering the market. Europe is also slapping tariffs on Chinese EVs as these cars upend their retail market.<h2 id="8dfa0b70-314e-4d64-b16a-ce59212e9bed">Companies will have to build fewer cars for now</h2>As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-auto-giants-volkswagen-bmw-mercedes-struggle-sales-china-evs-2024-10">Volkswagen loses ground</a> to BYD in Europe, the automotive giant is considering massive production pull-backs, including closing three German factories for the first time in its history.In the US, Ford announced its own EV production pull-backs this week, stopping assembly of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck until next year in a bid to improve profitability for its money-losing EV segment.Both companies are coupling these production rationalizations with other cost-cutting measures. At Ford, managerial bonuses tied to quality and manufacturing costs will be slashed to 65% of last year's levels. VW has said it plans to lay off workers and may cut wages.Over-production isn't just <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-pile-up-dealer-lots-deals-discounts-leasing-2024-8">a problem for EVs</a>, though. Overall vehicle inventory levels remained elevated at the end of October, driving up manufacturer-funded discounts, according to JD Power. Dealers ended October with about 2 million units in stock, a 4% increase from September and a 25% increase from the previous year.Some companies are more affected by inventory bloat than others. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stellantis-jeep-ceo-falling-sales-shrinking-profit-margins-dealers-strike-2024-10">Stellantis</a>, which is navigating the toughest year in its short history, is specifically focused on reducing inventory levels in the US, and reported some progress on that effort in the third quarter.

The China threat and the EV slowdown— 2 takeaways from a busy few weeks in auto news

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the US economy to 2.8% this year.</li><li>It expects slower growth of 2.2% next year as the government cuts back and the job market cools.</li></ul>The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the US, projecting the world's largest economy would expand by 2.8% this year instead of the 2.6% it predicted in July.in its latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024">World Economic Outlook </a>released on Tuesday, IMF staff cited stronger consumption fueled by "robust increases in real wages" and wealth effects, along with non-residential investment, as the two main reasons for the increase. However, they predicted GDP growth would slow to 2.2% in 2025 as the US government curbs its spending and the labor market cools, sapping consumption.The IMF projected global growth of 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, virtually unchanged from its previous prediction. They underscored their latest forecast for global growth over the next five years of 3.1% was "mediocre" compared with the pre-pandemic average."Persistent structural headwinds — such as population aging and weak productivity — are holding back potential growth in many economies," the agency's staff wrote.They projected only a slight slowdown in China to 4.8% this year due to resilient net exports, and revised their April forecast for 2025 upward by 0.4 percentage points to 4.5%. They noted the Chinese government's stimulus measures "may provide upside risk to near-term growth."The UN financial agency said that growth in the euro area appears to have troughed in 2023, and it anticipates an acceleration to 0.8% expansion in 2024 driven by stronger exports, then 1.2% in 2025 on the back of improved domestic demand.IMF staff made downward revisions to its growth outlook for the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, citing disruptions to the production and shipping of oil and other commodities as well as "conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events."In contrast, they upgraded their April forecasts for emerging and developing Asia by 0.3 percentage points for both 2024 and 2025, to 5.4% and 5.0%. They cited "surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has bolstered growth."

The IMF just raised its growth forecast for the US economy this year — but expects a slowdown in 2025

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's oil demand growth has slowed this year.</li><li>That's due to China's big shift to EVs and natural gas, Goldman Sachs analysts said. </li></ul>Oil demand in China has slowed markedly this year amid the country's shift to electric vehicles and natural gas, Goldman Sachs analysts said.The firm estimates that oil demand growth in the country is down to 200,000 barrels per day for 2024 compared to last year, with overall consumption down by 300,000 barrels a day. The shift from gas-fueled cars to electric and hybrid vehicles alone has reduced demand by 500,000 barrels a day, the analysts said. China's EV sector has expanded rapidly, with three of its biggest electric car makers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-electric-vehicles-byd-selling-record-cars-tesla-competition-deliveries-2024-7">hitting record sales in June</a>. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-ev-makers-outpacing-tesla-in-one-key-area-2024-7">report</a> from last month finds Chinese EV companies are catching up to — and even beating — industry leader Tesla when it comes to innovation.In an earlier report, the analysts predicted the surge in electric and hybrid sales will cause China's road oil consumption to peak in 2025, years ahead of most emerging market economies.The analysts say the oil demand slowdown also indicates broader concerns around China's dependence on manufacturing."While oil data now send a too pessimistic message about China economic activity (fuel switching does not lower GDP), overcapacity highlights the fragility of China's manufacturing bet," the analysts wrote.The oil slowdown comes as China's economy faces a slowdown across the board, with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-market-real-estate-crash-investors-outlook-construction-2024-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*1i3p3gk*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNDE3MTUxMi41My4wLjE3MjQxNzE1MTQuNTguMC4w">struggling property sector</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">weak consumer sentiment</a>.On Monday, the country's two main stock exchanges <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-stocks-sentiment-indicator-flows-foreign-investors-china-economy-2024-8#:~:text=China's%20economy%20is%20facing%20headwinds,first%20half%20of%20the%20year.">stopped reporting daily data</a> on flows from foreign investors, part of a greater move away from reporting real-time data as the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-consumer-spending-demand-real-estate-debt-crisis-2024-8">economy remains stuck in a rut</a>.

China's EVs are fueling a big oil demand slowdown

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy looks strong, judging by GDP growth, profits, productivity, and the labor market.</li><li>JPMorgan Asset Management is upbeat heading into 2025, but a major risk looms.</li></ul>It looks like the most obvious threats to the economy have been neutralized for now, but a veteran strategy chief fears that an under-the-radar risk poses a threat to the global expansion.This economic backdrop bears little resemblance to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-stagflation-disaster-high-prices-inflation-high-unemployment-2022-3">so-called stagflationary environment</a> of 2022, a year where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/">US GDP shrank in the first two quarters</a> as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-price-growth-june-2022-7">inflation hit multi-decade highs</a>.Fast forward to late 2024, and GDP has grown by at least 3% for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product">three of the last four quarters</a> and is expected to do so again in the third quarter, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. The firm estimates that consumer spending, which <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">accounts for about two thirds of US GDP</a>, also likely accelerated to 3.5% on an inflation-adjusted basis last quarter, up from 2.8% in Q2.Meanwhile, price growth is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">remarkably close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target</a>, which allowed the US central bank to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">start the interest rate easing cycle with a bang</a> in mid-September.Perhaps most encouraging is that the labor market appears to be healthy. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">Job additions easily exceeded estimates</a> in September, and the unemployment rate is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">in check at 4.1%</a>.Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. The same is true of wage growth, which JPMAM found has topped inflation for the last 17 months, underpinning solid consumer spending in the process.These signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence.The economic outlook "seems remarkably benign with solid economic growth, low unemployment, resilient profits, a slow drift down in inflation, and gradual easing from the Federal Reserve," Kelly said in written commentary on October 28. The market veteran added that there aren't "signs of an imminent change in the economy's path."<h2 id="59ff7859-06ea-46e1-a918-af568c5cb476">A 'tariff'ying risk</h2>That seemingly picturesque backdrop helps explain why the S&amp;P 500 has risen 22% this year and is near record highs. But Kelly believes investors can't let their guards down."Investing has always been as much about risk as about return, and the key to long-term success is being prepared for both," Kelly said in his commentary.Kelly said to be wary of elevated stock valuations — which he and his colleagues at JPMAM <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">said last week</a> could put a lid on future returns — and the market's heavy tilt toward mega-cap growth companies, even though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-strong-growth-market-outlook-garp-bmo-2024-10">that has been changing</a> in recent months.However, neither of those overhangs is more serious than the potential fallout from a domestic or international political shock. When asked last week about the biggest risk to his long-term outlook, Kelly quickly arrived at an answer: a fierce global trade war marked by escalating tariffs."No matter which set of economists you have sitting here, every one of 'em will tell you that tariffs are not a good idea," Kelly said at JPMAM's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">annual long-term capital market assumptions conference</a> on October 21. "You can use it as a threat, though it's kind of like a nuclear threat — the whole point is, if you actually end up using it, you kind of screwed up somewhere."Economists usually disapprove of tariffs, which are taxes on foreign imports, in most cases. Tariffs promise to generate revenue for the home country while aiding domestic industries, but they can drive up consumer prices and prompt counter-tariffs that lead to trade wars.In a worst-case scenario, tariffs would result in higher prices and lower growth due to the waste and inefficiency that they create while hurting importers and exporters in both countries."A trade war could cause us to push up our inflation forecast and push out our growth forecast at the same time," Kelly said at the conference.While Democrats and Republican presidents have leaned on tariffs in the past, it's former President Donald Trump who's <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/business/4945577-trump-tariffs-economy-trade/">promising to implement substantial tariffs</a> in this election cycle.While some say the threat of aggressive tariffs would help the US secure better trade terms, others are skeptical — if not outright scared.Such tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy,"</a> Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-stock-market-international-investing-strategy-charles-schwab-2024-6">cited tariffs as a top risk</a> back in June. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trumps-proposed-blanket-tariffs-would-risk-global-trade-war">spoke out against Trump's tariff proposals</a>, as did the right-leaning <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-economy-2024-election-kamala-harris-robert-lighthizer-29c07e94">Wall Street Journal editorial board</a>.Although investors may want to take the possibility of tariffs more seriously, Kelly noted that even if they're a major headache, stocks and the economy should still be fine in the long term."I could have said 'pandemic' five years ago, if I'd been incredibly prescient," Kelly said at the conference. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway. And so it wouldn't actually have been a very good thing to worry about."

The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders — but a veteran JPMorgan strategy chief says one underappreciated risk could cause a serious global slowdown

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rivian-rj-scaringe-jeff-bezos-billionaire-mit-r1t-r1s-2020-12">Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe</a> says the EV industry slowdown is due to an "extreme" lack of choice.</li><li>Scaringe attributes it to a lack of variety in EV models under $50,000.</li></ul>Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe said the EV industry may be growing at a slower pace — but it's still growing, according to an interview <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theverge.com/24201749/rivian-ceo-rj-scaringe-ev-electric-truck-r1-tesla-model-y-competition-decoder-interview">published Monday</a> with The Verge.The CEO said there's bias skewing conversations about EV growth and what's caused a slowdown. Some, he said, are attributing it to EVs that just haven't had success with development and launch.But Scaringe shared a theory, which boils down to a "truly extreme lack of choice.""If you want to spend less than $50,000 for an EV, I'd say there's a very, very small number of great products," Scaringe said.The CEO said that the market is "fairly saturated with Teslas," and while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-is-a-tesla-model-3">Tesla's Model 3</a> and Model Y are "highly compelling, great products," there's a lack of competition from similar models from other brands. Tesla's Model Y remains the world's best-selling vehicle and the second most popular vehicle from the EV giant is the Model 3 sedan.Scaringe said that the products competing with Tesla's Model 3 and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-y">Model Y</a> have replicated the shape and feel of the vehicle to the point that it's "almost identical" to Tesla's version. But Tesla still outperforms the competition, he said, without being specific about the alternative brands or products.He said that phenomenon has created a gap between EVs and the gasoline-powered vehicle space, where customers have hundreds of options in terms of brands and models. Due to the lack of choices, Scaringe said many customers have chosen one brand and have had to compromise on some of their vehicle preferences."Maybe they wanted something that was a little bit bigger, but they got something that was more like the Model Y," Scaringe said. "Maybe they didn't love the Tesla look, but it's the best product, so they took the Model Y."The CEO said that similarly to the R1, Rivian's R2 is "very intentionally" "not trying all to be a Tesla Model Y." He said while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-vs-rivian">it will compete with Tesla</a> in terms of pricing and size, it's not a replica.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rivian-r2-everything-we-know-pricing-production-details-2024-2">The R2 SUV will fit in with the brand's outdoorsy</a> design and is estimated to start deliveries in 2026. The model will cost $45,000, comparable to Tesla's Model Y, which starts at $43,000.Tesla focuses mostly on sedans and SUVs, while Rivian has built its brand around serving customers who want larger vehicles and better off-roading capabilities. Rivian's more expensive vehicles are like a combination of Tesla and Jeep.While Tesla may be at the forefront of the EV market, it has also experienced a slowdown. The company had a rough first quarter, with its lowest quarterly deliveries since 2022. Tesla's sales dropped again in the second quarter, but the 5% decrease was <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-production-deliveries-second-quarter-decline-2024-7">better than analysts expected</a>.Scaringe said he believes there is a "massive" untapped market for EVs that meets customers' desires for design, functionality, brand image, and aesthetics to convince them to ditch their gasoline-powered cars."That's not to say Model Y isn't a great car," Scaringe said. "I think it's an awesome car. I've owned one before. It's just to say that I think the world needs more variety."Rivian did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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