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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US military has spent recent years shifting its attention to the challenges posed by competitors that can match or in some cases exceed the capabilities of US forces.</li><li>A future conflict with such adversaries will be a marked departure from recent combat, and losses in such a fight could approach the levels of World War II, the Air Force chief of staff wrote in a recent paper.</li></ul>The superiority the <keyword id="6404246" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="us-air-force">US Air Force</keyword> has enjoyed in skies around the world for the past three decades is coming to an end, the service's new top officer said in his first major strategic document, published this week.In a paper titled "<a href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2331282/csaf-outlines-strategic-approach-for-air-force-success/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Accelerate Change or Lose</a>," Air Force Chief of Staff <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/charles-brown-confirmed-air-force-chief-of-staff-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gen. Charles C.Q. Brown Jr.</a>, who took over in August, wrote that the window of opportunity to adapt to future challenges is closing and that changes are needed in how the service develops, acquires, and uses its manpower and technology.The Air Force has enjoyed "a historically-anomalous period of dominance" since the Gulf War in late 1990, Brown wrote."For decades, American, allied and partner warfighters have felt safe with the top cover and strategic deterrence our air forces have provided; and for much of our existence as a country our Homeland has served as a sanctuary. These assumptions no longer hold true today," Brown added.<div type="image" title="US Air Force F-35 pilot cockpit" height="1597" width="2400" msid="77922070" hostid="261"></div>Brown wrote that during the decades in which the US focused on fighting violent extremism, adversaries studied the Air Force with the aim of developing means to counter it.Brown echoed many officials in cautioning about "<keyword id="9279199" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="great-power-competition">great power competition</keyword>," which primarily refers to <keyword id="6358826" type="LOCATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Russia">Russia</keyword> and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword>. Those countries have developed advanced air-defense systems and other long-range weapons, and the Air Force needs to "build deep institutional understanding" of them, Brown wrote."Future warfare will not remain far from our shores," Brown added. "Overseas, our Airmen will have to fight to achieve localized air superiority."Those changes mean a future fight against a peer or near-peer competitor could come with losses comparable to some of the most intense combat the US military has faced."Tomorrow's Airmen are more likely to fight in highly contested environments, and must be prepared to fight through combat attrition rates and risks to the Nation that are more akin to the World War II era than the uncontested environment to which we have since become accustomed," Brown wrote.<h2>A manned-unmanned fight</h2><div type="image" title="B-17 Flying Fortress WWII bomber" height="1199" width="1800" msid="77922071" hostid="261"></div>Some of World War II's most brutal fighting <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/black-thursday-for-wwii-us-army-air-force-over-schweinfurt-germany-2018-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was in the air</a>. Over Europe between 1942 and 1945, for instance, the Eighth Air Force <a href="https://www.8af.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/333794/eighth-air-force-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suffered about half</a> of the US Army Air Force's casualties, with more than 26,000 killed.In the latter half of the 20th century, US aircraft largely controlled the skies. For decades after the Korean War, no US ground troops <a href="https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2011/June%202011/0611april.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">were killed</a> by enemy air attack, and US aircraft were rarely shot down. (Brown's predecessor was one of the few pilots <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rescue-air-force-general-david-goldfein-after-serbia-f16-shootdown-2019-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">downed by enemy fire</a> after the Cold War.)Brown isn't the only Air Force official to acknowledge that planes and pilots won't go unscathed in a future conflict."If we're going to start thinking about a peer competitor seriously, we can't be an Air Force where everything that takes off needs to come back and land. It's just too hard to imagine with all the technology in the world that you can design invincible airplanes," Will Roper, the Air Force's acquisition chief, said <a href="https://www.cnas.org/events/fireside-chat-with-the-honorable-will-roper" target="_blank" rel="noopener">at a think-tank event</a> late last year.<div type="image" title="F-117 Nighthawk stealth aircraft crash Serbia" height="1128" width="1400" msid="77922072" hostid="261"></div>Roper's comment came in response to a question about whether the Air Force could in the future have more unmanned than manned aircraft. That will "probably" be the case, Roper said.Roper has touted his "<a href="https://www.airforcemag.com/ropers-six-keys-to-century-series-success/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Century Series</a>" concept to speed up aircraft development through shorter programs that share components. "I definitely think many of those systems will be will be unmanned," Roper said at the event.Through its "<a href="https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2020/07/23/four-companies-got-contracts-to-build-the-air-forces-skyborg-drone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Skyborg</a>" program, the Air Force is working on <keyword id="435993" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Unmanned-aircraft">unmanned aircraft</keyword> that use artificial intelligence to adjust to the battlefield. The Air Force intends for those aircraft to be attritable — which means reusable but cheap enough to discard — and be capable of acting as a wingman to manned aircraft.Roper said the hope was the F-35 and the new F-15EX could be "trailblazers" in that manned-unmanned concept."The thing I so dearly want our pilots to have is if they have to fly into uncertain airspace, that they've got the option to push their attritable scout, or their forward-based jammer or forward-based sensor, so they're either confusing the enemy first, seeing the enemy first, [or] disrupting the enemy first," Roper said. "If we have to lose systems in the fight, shame on us if they're not those attritable systems."<div type="image" title="xq 58a valkyrie kratos.JPG" height="1462" width="2200" msid="77922074" hostid="261"></div>The Air Force has lost unmanned aircraft. At least three drones <a href="https://www.c4isrnet.com/unmanned/2019/08/23/5-times-in-history-enemies-shot-down-a-us-drone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">were downed</a> over the Middle East in recent years, and the service <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2019/12/10/africom-demands-return-of-us-drone-shot-down-by-russian-air-defenses-over-libya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has said</a> it believes a Russian anti-aircraft system was used to shoot down a drone over Libya last year.Other military officials <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/foggo-allies-worried-about-weapons-should-look-at-russia-a2ad-2020-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">have noted the benefits</a> of using unmanned platforms in place of manned aircraft, but whether and how to employ those platforms is a decision for humans. Like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/military-recruiting-efforts-affecting-future-navy-ship-designs-2020-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">other senior leaders</a>, Brown said preparing for future conflicts requires getting the right people."Successful operations and combat support in a contested environment demand maximum delegation, trust, and empowerment of Airmen before conflict starts," Brown wrote, with emphasis. "We must empower Airmen at all levels, delegating to the lowest capable and competent level possible, mindful that with empowerment and trust comes accountability.""We must develop the Airmen we need for the high-end fight" starting during recruitment and throughout their career, Brown added. "The US Air Force must ... reward and retain those Airmen who foster the personal attributes necessary for success in the challenging future ahead."

Preparing for future wars means getting ready for World War II-level losses, the US Air Force's top officer says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Over the past 30 years, the US Air Force's fighter fleet has shrunk.</li><li>As the service focuses on competition with China, it wants an affordable way to expand that fleet.</li></ul>On April 11, General Atomics <a href="https://www.ga.com/ga-asi-flies-mq-20-avenger-autonomously-using-leo-satcom-datalink" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that AI and human pilots had successfully done combat maneuvers with the company's MQ-20 Avenger unmanned combat aerial vehicle.The test involved human operators sending commands to the aircraft through a satellite in low earth orbit. The aircraft were also tracked and maneuvered by AI pilots operating autonomously. Data was collected and used to retrain and redeploy AI pilots via satellite connection while the aircraft was still airborne.The test is one of the latest developments in the US Air Force's efforts to acquire collaborative combat aircraft — unmanned aircraft capable of operating alongside piloted aircraft or autonomously for all kinds of missions.The collaborative combat aircraft is one of the Air Force's biggest priorities, one that will shape the future of its inventory and influence how it uses its aircraft."We're headed down the path to have much more capability for uncrewed aircraft," Gen. Charles Brown Jr., the Air Force chief of staff, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-u-s-air-force-and-american-defense-strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in February. "As you look at collaborative combat aircraft, it can be the sensor, it could be a shooter, it can be a jammer."<h2>A need for 'affordable mass'</h2><div type="image" title="MQ-9 Reapers and F-16 elephant walk Holloman" height="1331" width="2000" msid="99971589" hostid="261"></div>Collaborative combat aircraft, or CCA, are a solution to a problem the Air Force faces as it prepares for an era of great-power competition with China: the size of its fleet.Budget cuts, the <a href="https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/what-went-wrong-how-the-f-35-got-to-be-so-expensive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unexpectedly high cost</a> of the F-35 stealth fighter, and the focus on low-intensity counterinsurgency operations for much of the past three decades led that fleet to shrink.In 1989, the Air Force's total fighter inventory was 4,321 aircraft. That fell to 2,584 by 1999 and to 1,176 in 2022, <a href="https://youtu.be/avN6l78aoDo?t=292" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to</a> the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. The number of mission-capable fighters — those that can fly and perform at least one mission — is even lower. Worse, the Air Force faces <a href="https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2023/03/03/perennial-pilot-shortage-puts-air-force-in-precarious-position/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a pilot shortage</a> and its overall number of flight hours <a href="https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-flying-hours-decline-again-after-brief-recovery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has been decreasing</a>.The Air Force has tried to address those issues in several ways. It is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-new-f15ex-fighter-cant-win-next-war-2021-5" target="_top">acquiring the F-15EX</a>, a modernized version of the F-15 that will replace older models, and it has <a href="https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/air-force-pilot-training-method-17728373.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener">invested in simulators</a> to accelerate pilot training.The Air Force also continues to develop top-tier assets like the F-35, the <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3235326/world-gets-first-look-at-b-21-raider/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">B-21 stealth bomber</a>, and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-are-teaming-up-to-build-next-generation-fighter-jets-2023-1" target="_top">Next Generation Air Dominance</a> program, or NGAD.However, those aircraft are very expensive, their development may still be delayed, and acquiring them doesn't address pilot retention and generation issues. Consequently, the Air Force wants cheaper, capable airframes to provide "<a href="https://www.afa.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/Advancements%20in%20Collaborative%20Combat%20Aircraft%20CONOPs%20%28Transcript%29.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">affordable mass</a>."<h2>Collaborative combat aircraft</h2><div type="image" title="MQ-1 Predator drone in Iraq" height="1210" width="1614" msid="99971590" hostid="261"></div>The Air Force has used drones for intelligence-gathering and airstrikes for decades, but its premier unmanned combat platforms, the <a href="https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104469/mq-1b-predator/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MQ-1 Predator</a> and <a href="https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104470/mq-9-reaper/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MQ-9 Reaper</a>, are still operated remotely by humans.CCAs, however, are meant to function remotely or autonomously and to perform a range of missions, including air-to-air combat, airstrikes, and intelligence-gathering. They will be able to operate alongside piloted aircraft in manned-unmanned teams, in which pilots will assign tasks that the CCAs complete on their own. The CCAs will also be able to operate completely autonomously with other CCAs.CCAs are an integral part of NGAD, which seeks to create "a family of systems," not just a single fighter."One way to think about it is that the pod or the weapon that might have been under the wing of crewed aircraft is now flying in separate aircraft and managed by that commander of that aircraft," Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, the service's top civilian official, told lawmakers on May 2."The analysis that we've done shows that the adversary has to honor each of those aircraft, as it is a full threat, and that gives you a great advantage relative to the cost of having those things in the air," Kendall added.<div type="image" title="XQ-58A Valkyrie drone launching" height="1336" width="2000" msid="99971591" hostid="261"></div>CCAs will be piloted by systems that are in development. The Air Force's <a href="https://www.airandspaceforces.com/wildly-successful-skyborg-program-of-record-developing-st/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Skyborg</a> program, which is pursuing an AI-enabled system to control unmanned aircraft, has <a href="https://www.airandspaceforces.com/wildly-successful-skyborg-program-of-record-developing-st/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">successfully demonstrated</a> its capabilities. DARPA's <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/program/air-combat-evolution" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Air Combat Evolution</a> program has demonstrated its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-just-beat-a-human-pilot-in-a-simulated-dogfight-2020-8" target="_top">ability to beat human pilots</a> in simulated dogfights.Kendall said in early March that the Air Force <a href="https://www.airandspaceforces.com/kendall-new-details-air-force-plans-200-ngad-1000-ccas/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may acquire</a> at least 1,000 CCAs — two each for some 500 NGAD aircraft and F-35s — but has since said that was just a starting point meant to show the Air Force was serious about the program."We're starting out with the intent to have at least two per fighter working together, but it could be more than that," Kendall told reporters at the Air and Space Forces symposium on March 7. "It's going to be a question of what the technology will support and what works out best operationally."Kendall has said the cost of each CCA could be one-quarter to half the cost of an F-35. With F-35s running about <a href="https://www.airandspaceforces.com/collaborative-combat-aircraft-ngad-timeline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$82.5 million</a>, CCAs could cost between $21 million and $41 million."We can sacrifice one of these aircraft, put it well out in front, use it to draw a fire, and force the other side to expose itself and then be subject to engagement," Kendall told lawmakers this month. "We call them attritable. They're not expendable, but we can afford to lose some of them operationally."<h2>Valkyrie, Avenger, and Ghost Bat</h2><div type="image" title="MQ-20 Avenger" height="933" width="1244" msid="99971592" hostid="261"></div>Air Force officials have indicated that because of the array of missions CCAs are expected to conduct, there likely won't be a single model.At least three UCAVs in development could be candidates for the Air Force's program: the <a href="https://www.kratosdefense.com/-/media/k/pdf/usd/xq-58a-valkyrie.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">XQ-58 Valkyrie</a> from Kratos Defense, the <a href="https://www.ga-asi.com/remotely-piloted-aircraft/predator-c-avenger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MQ-20 Avenger</a> from General Atomics, and the <a href="https://www.boeing.com/defense/MQ-28/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MQ-28 Ghost Bat</a> from Boeing.The XQ-58A has a maximum launch weight of 6,000 pounds and can cruise at 550 mph. Its operational altitude is 45,000 feet and it has a range of 3,000 nautical miles. Since first flying in 2019, it has done multiple test flights for the Air Force, including <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/38168/stealthy-xq-58-drone-busts-the-networking-logjam-between-f-22-and-f-35" target="_blank" rel="noopener">being used as a datalink</a> for F-22s and F-35s and <a href="https://ir.kratosdefense.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kratos-usaf-complete-successful-xq-58a-valkyrie-skyborg-flight" target="_blank" rel="noopener">work with the Skyborg</a> program.The Valkyrie's unique <a href="https://ir.kratosdefense.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kratos-xq-58a-valkyrie-continues-successful-flights-and" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rocket-assisted takeoff system</a> also gives it what Kratos and the Air Force call "runway independence." It uses parachutes and airbag cushions to land.The MQ-20 Avenger first flew in 2009 and an <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42906/this-is-a-great-comparison-between-general-atomics-avenger-drone-configurations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upgraded version</a> with increased fuel capacity flew in 2016. It has a top speed of about 460 mph and a 20-hour flight endurance and can reach altitudes over 50,000 feet. It can carry 6,500 pounds of ordnance, including missiles and precision-guided bombs. The MQ-20 can also be fitted with sensors and cameras, making it suitable for intelligence-gathering and electronic warfare.<div type="image" title="MQ-28 Ghost Bat in Australia" height="1300" width="1733" msid="99971593" hostid="261"></div>The Avenger's angular shape and internal weapons bay give it stealth properties. Only a few have been built, but it has been <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/military-uavs/two-general-atomics-mq-20-avengers-coordinate-flight-with-skyborg-software/146189.article" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heavily involved</a> in the Skyborg program.The MQ-28 was developed by Boeing Australia for the Royal Australian Air Force and was originally known as the Airpower Teaming System, a nod to its intended role as a "loyal wingman" to manned aircraft.Boeing has been very secretive about the Ghost Bat, which first flew in 2021. The company has said the drone can fly more than 2,000 nautical miles and carry sensor packages for intelligence-gathering and early-warning missions.Australia has <a href="https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/10031-defence-clarifies-ghost-bat-procurement-plan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed contracts</a> for 10 MQ-28s, which are expected to enter service between 2024 and 2025. The US Air Force has <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/air-force-acquires-australias-mq-28-ghost-bat-drone-for-testing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acquired</a> at least one MQ-28 for testing.Kendall has said a formal competition for CCA acquisition could begin as soon as late 2023, and Air Force officials say the first CCAs could arrive in the late 2020s and enter service before the NGAD fighter."I think the CCA is not just desirable. It's essential" to meet the global challenges the Air Force faces, Kendall told lawmakers on March 28. "Without it, it's very difficult to envision how we could keep the Air Force at the size it currently is."

The US Air Force has big plans for the next-generation drones that will fight alongside its fighters and bombers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Air Force Research Laboratory conducted its sixth test of the Valkyrie drone in late March.</li><li>During the test, the drone launched a smaller drone from its internal weapons bay.</li><li>The Air Force is looking at Valkyrie as an autonomous UAV that could support manned aircraft.</li></ul>A Valkyrie drone launched another drone during a recent flight test, <a href="https://www.afrl.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2561387/afrl-successfully-completes-xq-58a-valkyrie-flight-and-payload-release-test/">the Air Force Research Laboratory announced Monday</a>.The <keyword id="11051505" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="xq-58a-valkyrie">XQ-58A Valkyrie</keyword> is a long-range <keyword id="148690" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="unmanned-aerial-vehicle">unmanned aerial vehicle</keyword> capable of high subsonic speeds. It was built by Kratos Unmanned Aerial Systems for the Air Force Research Laboratory's Low Cost Attritable Aircraft <keyword id="6355118" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="technology">Technology</keyword> (LCAAT) program and <a href="https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1777743/xq-58a-valkyrie-demonstrator-completes-inaugural-flight/">first flew on March 5, 2019</a>.<div type="image" title="The XQ-58A Valkyrie demonstrator, a long-range, high subsonic unmanned air vehicle completed its inaugural flight March 5, 2019 at Yuma Proving Grounds, Arizona" height="2173" width="3270" msid="81922470" hostid="261"></div>During its sixth flight test on March 26, 2021, the aircraft conducted its first payload release from its internal weapons bay, launching an Area-I ALTIUS-600 small <keyword id="435993" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Unmanned-aircraft">unmanned aircraft</keyword> system.The Air Force is looking at relatively inexpensive, expendable <keyword id="94769" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="drones">drones</keyword> like the Valkyrie as potential artificial-intelligence-driven autonomous platforms that could fly alongside and support manned fighter aircraft. This is the major focus of the Skyborg program.The Air Force's Skyborg project, <a href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2440755/aflcmc-awards-contract-for-skyborg-prototypes/">for which Kratos, Boeing, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems are developing prototypes</a>, is about fielding autonomous unmanned systems that will "enable the Air Force to operate and sustain low-cost, teamed aircraft that can thwart adversaries with quick, decisive actions in contested environments," <a href="https://afresearchlab.com/technology/vanguards/successstories/skyborg">the service says</a>.The smaller, tube-launched autonomous <a href="https://areai.com/wp-content/uploads/Slick-600-V1.pdf">ALTIUS-600 drones provide additional support</a> in the form of intelligence gathering and reconnaissance, counter-drone, electronic-warfare, and strike capabilities.<div type="image" title="An XQ-58A Valkyrie low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle launches at the U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground, Ariz., Dec. 9, 2020" height="2149" width="3218" msid="81922473" hostid="261"></div>The recent Valkyrie test was not only the first time the payload doors have been opened in flight, Alyson Turri, the demonstration program manager, <a href="https://www.afrl.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2561387/afrl-successfully-completes-xq-58a-valkyrie-flight-and-payload-release-test/">said in a statement</a>, but this time the XQ-58A drone also flew higher and faster than it has in previous tests.The recent test followed the Valkyrie drone's fifth flight test in December, <a href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2446122/gatewayone-and-attritableone-test-moves-joint-force-one-step-closer-to-iotmil-d/">which involved the aircraft flying alongside Air Force F-22 and F-35A fighters and a Marine Corps F-35B</a>.<div type="image" title="A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor and F-35A Lightning II fly in formation with the XQ-58A Valkyrie low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle over the U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground testing range, Ariz., during a series of tests Dec. 9, 2020" height="2832" width="4184" msid="81922476" hostid="261"></div>The rocket-launched Valkyrie drone conducted a semi-autonomous flight while carrying a gatewayONE payload built to allow the different fifth-generation aircraft to communicate, though the communication tool lost connectivity shortly after the aircraft took off.Despite the connectivity problem during the testing in December, the Air Force was able to overcome the digital security barriers to allow the F-22's Intra-Flight Data Link and F-35's Multifunctional Advanced Data Link to communicate and transmit data, demonstrating some of the possibilities for this technology.The <a href="https://www.afrl.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2561387/afrl-successfully-completes-xq-58a-valkyrie-flight-and-payload-release-test/">Air Force Research Laboratory said that the most recent Valkyrie drone test</a>, which like past tests was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground in Arizona and supported by Kratos and Area-I, "further demonstrates the utility of affordable, high performance unmanned air vehicles."

The US Air Force says the Valkyrie drone launched another drone in a first for the aircraft

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Russian Ministry of Defense has proposed expanding the role of the stealthy new <keyword id="9843274" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="okhotnik">Okhotnik</keyword> (Hunter) <keyword id="6354474" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="drone">drone</keyword> to include long-range intercept missions, Russian state media reported.</li><li>The Okhotnik could be tasked with targeting not only approaching fighter and bomber aircraft, but also the tankers and airborne early warning planes that support them.</li><li>An aircraft industry source told the state-run TASS that the drone will rely on <keyword id="107950" type="TECHNOLOGY" weightage="60" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence">artificial intelligence</keyword> to achieve a certain degree of warfighting autonomy.</li><li>Like <keyword id="6358826" type="LOCATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Russia">Russia</keyword>, the US military is pursuing several lines of effort to field AI-driven autonomous aircraft for manned-unmanned teaming in combat operations.</li></ul>Russia is considering giving the stealthy Okhotnik (Hunter) combat drone an air-to-air combat mission as a long-range interceptor, Russian state media reported this week.The Russian defense ministry has proposed a concept of operations that would see the drone deployed forward with long-range weaponry to "attack air targets before they approach the air defense zone," <a href="https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/9299951">an aircraft industry source told the TASS news agency</a>.While development of the flying-wing Okhotnik unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) began years earlier, it was not until January of last year that the world saw the first pictures of the drone.The drone, a Sukhoi Design Bureau project, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-stealthy-new-strike-drone-takes-flight-for-first-time-2019-8">took flight for the first time</a> in August 2019, and then in September of last year, it flew alongside a Su-57, Russia's most advanced fighter aircraft."As originally designed, it was supposed to be an air defense penetrator," Samuel Bendett, an adviser with CNA and an adjunct senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security think tank who studies Russian military autonomy and AI, told Insider."Then, they announced that it would function in a manned-unmanned teaming formation with the stealthy Su-57 manned aircraft and the Su-35, also an advanced Russian manned aircraft," he said. "And, now they are saying that it's going to get an interceptor role."As a forward operating system, the Okhotnik could be tasked with targeting not only approaching fighter and bomber aircraft, but also rear-echelon assets such as tankers and airborne early warning planes that support them. It could even dogfight with enemy manned aircraft, as well as engage unmanned systems.In addition to intercepting adversary assets, it could also be used to draw fire, force an enemy to reveal itself, or cause an adversary to expend higher-value, sophisticated munitions on a drone that could be needed for later fights.<div type="image" title="The first joint flight of a Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle and a Sukhoi Su-57 jet fighter." height="512" width="1024" msid="77812256" hostid="261"></div>Russia characterizes the Okhotnik as a stealthy unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) with a reduced radar signature, which gives the aircraft the ability to slip past defenses or approach enemy assets with less chance of being detected.The design of the prototypes that have been used in recent tests do not appear to provide the desired all-aspect low observability. However, that may not be the case with the final design.Last August, Sukhoi unveiled a stealthier design at an event outside Moscow, indicating that Russia intends to further refine the aircraft to achieve the intended stealth capabilities.As for how it might operate, TASS reports that Okhotnik's actions in battle will be coordinated by both ground stations and manned fighter aircraft.Bendett told Insider he suspects the Okhotnik drone "will have a similar role to Skyborg," a US Air Force project aimed at developing low-cost, attritable AI-driven autonomous UCAVs to fly alongside manned fighters.<div type="image" title="A video screen grab shows a Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle performing first test flights." height="402" width="804" msid="77812259" hostid="261"></div>TASS' source told the outlet that the AI-driven platform will be "fully autonomous" and have the ability to "independently search for certain types of targets, report on them, and attack.""Full autonomy is, I think, more of a conceptual statement," Bendett said. "It's a statement that kind of provides a goal for the domestic defense sector to work towards and kind of puts everybody else on notice that this is what the Russians are working on."He said that across the Russian defense establishment, researchers and developers are looking at "unmanned systems eventually having full autonomy and fighting alongside humans, selecting the targets and making the evaluations for a human operator to then make the final decision."As for that final decision on whether or not to engage, Russia is currently keeping the human in the loop, but, "we are starting to see the debate shift a little bit into that gray area where AI-enabled decision-making systems in various weapons are going to be given a greater and greater role in combat to the point where the human role is diminished," Bendett said.It is not clear to what degree the Okhotnik combat drone is presently autonomous, assuming it is at all.The US military is currently pursuing projects to advance research for unmanned warfare with AI at the stick.Last week, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) put an AI algorithm up against a well-trained US Air Force F-16 pilot in a "simulated within-visual-range air combat" situation, or dogfight.The AI achieved a flawless victory, one that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-pilot-not-surprised-ai-beat-human-in-simulated-dogfight-2020-8">a former US Navy TOPGUN instructor said</a> was a "significant step toward one day providing an unmanned aircraft that can perform dogfighting" but not evidence "that we're there now."The Air Force has said that it plans to pit an AI-driven autonomous aircraft against a human pilot in some type of aerial engagement as early as next year, more work is required to get AI ready for real world combat."The United States is ahead of the competition in trying to understand what AI's role is in aerial combat," Bendett said, adding that Russia will likely need to put its unmanned systems through similar tests before platforms like the Okhotnik can carry out missions as intended.The Russian defense ministry has called for deliveries of the Okhotnik combat drone to begin in 2024.

Russia is talking about giving its stealthy 'Hunter' drone an air-to-air combat mission as a long-range interceptor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>An experienced US Air Force F-16 pilot went head-to-head with an <keyword id="107950" type="TECHNOLOGY" weightage="60" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence">artificial intelligence</keyword> algorithm in a simulated dogfight last week and suffered five straight losses in the battle with the machine.</li><li>Former US Navy pilot and TOPGUN instructor Guy Snodgrass told Insider that he was "not surprised" by the <keyword id="6355999" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ai">AI</keyword> victory, arguing that the the pilot was forced to play the AI's game and that the AI algorithm would likely have "crashed and burned" in the real world.</li><li>Former Air Force pilot and senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation John "JV" Venable said the competition was "gamed to a point where you can't beat it."</li><li>That being said, both of the former pilots said they see a not-too-distant future where the US military has mission-capable AI-driven autonomous combat aircraft that can engage other combatants in air-to-air combat.</li></ul>An <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-just-beat-a-human-pilot-in-a-simulated-dogfight-2020-8">artificial intelligence algorithm absolutely destroyed a seasoned US fighter pilot</a> last week in a simulated dogfight, a result some observers say was to be expected."I was not surprised by that outcome," Guy 'Bus' Snodgrass, a former US Navy pilot and TOPGUN instructor, told Insider, arguing that the set-up of the engagement gave the AI an advantage. John "JV" Venable, a former US Air Force F-16 pilot, said the same.The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) held the last round of its third and final AlphaDogfight competition Thursday, putting an AI system designed by Heron Systems against a human pilot in a "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-f-16-pilot-will-battle-ai-in-simulated-dogfight-2020-8">simulated within-visual-range air combat</a>" situation.The competing AI algorithm achieved a flawless victory, winning five straight matches without the human pilot — an experienced Air Force pilot and Weapons Instructor Course graduate with the callsign "Banger" — ever scoring a hit.With advancements in air combat capabilities, there have long been questions about whether <keyword id="2157959" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="dogfighting">dogfighting</keyword> even matters. Both Venable and Snodgrass said it remains relevant because pilots must be prepared to dogfight should their standoff capabilities be neutralized."In a best case scenario, dogfighting is completely irrelevant because you want to see your adversary as far away as possible," Snodgrass explained. But sometimes pilots are unable to defeat their opponent before they find themselves in close combat."Now, you're left to a bullet," Venable said.<div type="image" title="An F-16 during an approach at mission at Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico, Apr. 21, 2019" height="667" width="889" msid="77769358" hostid="261"></div><h2>'Gamed to a point where you can't beat it'</h2><a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2020/08/ai-slays-top-f-16-pilot-in-darpa-dogfight-simulation/">Theresa Hitchens at Breaking Defense characterized the recent simulated engagement</a> as a "one-on-one combat scenario" in which combatants fired "forward guns in a classic, WWII-style dogfight," suggesting that it mimicked certain aspects of close air-to-air combat. That being said, the contest was not necessarily a fair or realistic fight."This was gamed to a point where you can't beat it," Venable said, arguing that the AI algorithm appears to have had access to information that it would not have in the real world. The combat environment, as Snodgrass also pointed out, was built to the AI's advantage."You have an artificial intelligence program that has been perfectly trained in that environment to conduct a simulated fight, and you have a US Air Force fighter pilot who you are forcing to wear VR goggles," Snodgrass said, saying that the human is "playing the AI's game."With a background in computer science and experience with some of the Department of Defense's AI research, he explained that "if you give [AI] a very narrow, specific job to accomplish, once it's been trained, once it has had exposure to a very static environment, it does phenomenally well.""You find that artificial intelligence can begin to outperform human operators in short order," he added.But, where AI struggles is when it's put in a complex environment with unconstrained variables and asked to think and act like a human being. "We're nowhere near that," Snodgrass said."The AlphaDogfight trials were a significant step toward one day providing an unmanned aircraft that can perform dogfighting," the retired Navy commander said, "but what it does not demonstrate is that we're there now.""I think it's promising for the development of artificial intelligence," he added, "but if you took that same algorithm, put it into an unmanned vehicle and said, 'Okay, go fight a real dogfight,' it would have crashed and burned pretty quick."A mission-capable AI-driven autonomous combat aircraft is possible in the not-too-distant future though, both he and Venable told Insider.The AlphaDogfight trials are aimed at moving DARPA's Air Combat Evolution (ACE) program forward.The ACE program, <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/program/air-combat-evolution">according to DARPA</a>, is designed to "deliver a capability that enables a pilot to attend to a broader, more global air command mission while their aircraft and teamed unmanned systems are engaged in individual tactics."Col. Dan Javorsek, the program manager in DARPA's Strategic <keyword id="6355118" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="technology">Technology</keyword> Office, <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2019-05-08">said last year</a> that the agency envisions "a future in which AI handles the split-second maneuvering during within-visual-range dogfights, keeping pilots safer and more effective as they orchestrate large numbers of unmanned systems into a web of overwhelming combat effects."The agency's research is aimed at delivering advanced manned-unmanned teaming both inside and outside the cockpit, and DARPA is just one of several teams looking at these capabilities for the US military."When you think about all the advancements that have occurred in the last decade, in the last hundred years, I would never bet against technological progress," Snodagrass said."I think there's a point in time where the US military will have unmanned aircraft that you could give a mission, load it up, have it take off, and have it potentially fight its way in and fight its way back out," he added. "That's absolutely possible and something likely to happen probably sooner than we ever imagined."As part of the ongoing Skyborg project, the Air Force is currently working to develop low-cost, attritable AI-driven autonomous aerial combat vehicles to fly alongside manned fighter aircraft in combat as early as 2023. The military is also talking about putting one of these unmanned systems against a manned aircraft in aerial combat as early as next year.But developing the technology is only part of the process of fielding new warfighting capabilities. The technology also has to be accepted and trusted by pilots."The recent 5 to 0 victory of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) pilot developed by Heron Systems over an Air Force F-16 human pilot does not have me scrambling to send out applications for a new job," Navy Cmdr. Colin 'Farva' Price, a F/A-18 squadron commander, <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35947/navy-f-a-18-squadron-commanders-take-on-ai-repeatedly-beating-real-pilot-in-dogfight">wrote in an article for The War Zone</a>. "However, I was impressed by the AlphaDogfight trials and recognize its value in determining where the military can capitalize on AI applications."He expressed interest in AI-enhanced systems in an aircraft assisting and augmenting the combat capabilities of <keyword id="412013" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="fighter-pilots">fighter pilots</keyword> through machine learning, something the Air Force is already looking at.Explaining that top US pilots have thousands of hours of experience <a href="https://insidedefense.com/daily-news/rapid-autonomy-development-team-sets-18-month-plan-autonomous-fighter-jet">during a 2018 interview with Inside Defense</a>, Steven Rogers, the head of autonomy at the Air Force Research Laboratory, asked the question, "What happens if I can augment their ability with a system that can have literally millions of hours of training time?""I am not ready for Skynet to become self-aware," Price wrote, referring to the evil AI enemy in the Terminator films, "but I am certainly ready to invite AI into the cockpit."

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