<ul class="summary-list"><li>In March 1969, Soviet and Chinese troops clashed over an unremarkable but disputed islet in a river on their eastern border.</li><li>Border clashes were nothing new, but the fighting over what <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> called <keyword id="10904853" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="zhenbao-island">Zhenbao Island</keyword> and the Soviets called <keyword id="10904854" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="damansky-island">Damansky Island</keyword> escalated.</li><li>The conflict became so intense that both sides put their nuclear missiles on high alert, edging closer to nuclear war.</li></ul><p>On the morning of March 2, 1969, Soviet border guards set out to confront 30 Chinese soldiers who were heading toward Zhenbao Island, a small islet on the Ussuri River between China and the <keyword id="6365126" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="soviet-union">Soviet Union</keyword>.</p><p>Control of the island was disputed, but this didn't seem like a particularly unusual event, as thousands of incidents had occurred all along the Sino-Soviet border since 1964. While many resulted in brawls, including some at Zhenbao, few involved deadly force.</p><p>This time, however, it was a trap.</p><p>As the Soviet force - which included 60 men, two BTR armored personnel carriers (APCs), a truck, and a car - approached the island on the frozen river, the Chinese troops, joined by 300 soldiers who snuck onto the island the night before, opened fire.</p><p>Seven Soviet border guards, including their commander, were killed immediately. An intense two-hour firefight erupted, involving mortars, artillery, and anti-tank weapons.</p><p>Reinforcements rushed in, and when the fighting ceased, 31 Soviets were dead, 14 were wounded, and one BTR was destroyed. The Soviets claimed to have killed over 200 Chinese soldiers, and both sides retreated to their territory.</p><p>But <a href="https://www.cna.org/cna_files/pdf/d0022974.a2.pdf" target="_top">the fight</a> was far from over. In the coming days, <a href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_memoranda/2019/RM6171.pdf" target="_top">the conflict</a> became so intense that both sides placed their nuclear missiles on high alert, bringing the world close to nuclear war.</p><h2>Brothers to rivals</h2><div type="image" title="China Russia Soviet Union border dispute" height="1456" width="2000" msid="81433928" hostid="261"></div><p>The fighting surprised most in the West. The USSR and China were the preeminent communist powers and were seen as brothers working closely together to spread communism.</p><p>They had signed a mutual defense treaty in 1950. The Soviets had also extensively trained and equipped China's military and were <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/sharing-the-bomb-among-friends-the-dilemmas-sino-soviet-strategic-cooperation" target="_top">instrumental</a> in starting <a href="https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/chinese-nuclear-program" target="_top">China's nuclear weapons program</a>.</p><p>But the relationship soured. Mao Zedong believed Moscow was reluctant to seriously confront the West, as in Korea, where <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/korean-war-battle-chosin-reservoir-now-chinese-rallying-cry-2020-11" target="_top">China had fought the US and UN</a> while the USSR stayed out.</p><p>The relationship further deteriorated when Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev, secretly denounced Stalin and began de-Stalinization, which Mao labeled an act of revisionism. Khrushchev also began negotiating with the US on a nuclear test ban treaty.</p><p>Mao began to say the USSR was trying to dominate China and that China, not the USSR, should be the dominant communist power. By 1960, all Soviet advisors had left China, and Moscow had abandoned its promises to support China's nuclear program.</p><h2><keyword id="6417196" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="border-dispute">Border dispute</keyword></h2><div type="image" title="China Russia Soviet Union border dispute" height="1397" width="2000" msid="81433931" hostid="261"></div><p>Amid the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/20th-century-international-relations-2085155/The-Sino-Soviet-split" target="_top">Sino-Soviet split</a>, China continued building its military capabilities. China detonated its first atomic bomb in 1964 and a hydrogen bomb three years later. By 1966, its military had grown to about 4 million men.</p><p>Against this backdrop, the Sino-Soviet border dispute took center stage. China complained that its northern borders were set by unfair treaties with the Russian Empire and needed to be revised.</p><p>Zhenbao Island, known to the Soviets as Damansky Island, became a focal point for the dispute, despite having virtually no strategic value.</p><p>Just 100 meters from the Chinese side of the river and 400 meters from the Soviets, the island was uninhabited, had a surface are of just 0.28 square miles, and was completely submerged part of the year.</p><p>The dispute was almost settled in 1964, when both sides tentatively agreed to give China control of some 400 river islands, including Zhenbao. But the agreement was scrapped after Mao's comments regarding other Russian territories were made public.</p><p>The Soviets then militarized the border, growing their forces there to 34 divisions, comprising as many as 290,000 men, by 1969. A mutual defense treaty signed with Mongolia in 1966 allowed thousands more Soviet soldiers to be stationed there, and in 1967, the USSR sent nuclear weapons to its Far East.</p><p>China had some 59 divisions along the border, most of them made up of only infantry and artillery.</p><h2>Bloodshed</h2><div type="image" title="China Russia Soviet Union border dispute" height="1416" width="2000" msid="81433933" hostid="261"></div><p>Both sides tested each other, and altercations, mostly fistfights and shoving, were common all along the border. The first deaths occurred on January 5, 1968, when a skirmish on Qiliqin Island left four Chinese dead.</p><p>Enraged, Mao and China's Central Military Commission wanted a response, and Zhenbao was selected as the location for it.</p><p>Moments after the ambush, Soviet reinforcements rushed to the scene and attacked the Chinese on the island. They managed to expel them before intense artillery and anti-tank fire forced the Soviets to retreat.</p><p>Both sides accused the other of unprovoked action, with China claiming the Soviets fired first. Sporadic fighting continued around the island for days. Unknown to the Chinese, the Soviets were preparing a counterattack, moving a massive number of tanks and artillery into position.</p><p>On March 15, the attack was launched. Fifty tanks, including the new T-62 tank, and APCs attacked some 2,000 Chinese troops on or around the island in a fight that lasted nine hours.</p><p>Soviet aircraft flew 36 sorties in support of the operation, and Soviet artillery, including the new BM-21 multiple rocket launcher, fired 10,000 rounds as far as 4 miles into China.</p><p>Both sides retreated from the island again after the fighting. The Soviets lost as many as 60 men, including the operation's commander, but claimed to have killed over 800 Chinese soldiers</p><p>Unsure how the Chinese would respond, the Soviets placed their Strategic Rocket Forces in the Far East on heightened alert, and Soviet media outlets warned China of the costs of nuclear war.</p><h2>Aftermath</h2><div type="image" title="China Russia Soviet Union border dispute" height="1420" width="2000" msid="81433934" hostid="261"></div><p>There was no more large-scale fighting around Zhenbao, but the situation there and elsewhere on the border remained tense for months - a Soviet ambush in China's far-western Xinjiang region in August 1969 killed over 20 Chinese soldiers.</p><p>The events made Chinese leaders realize just how close to war they actually came. In September, both countries agreed to return to negotiations. Still wary of Soviet intentions, the Chinese put their own nuclear forces on alert until negotiations began on October 20.</p><p>The battles had a profound effect on Sino-Soviet relations. They remained deeply distrustful of each other for the rest of the Cold War and effectively forced other communist countries to pick a side. Ten years after the incident, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-china-war-with-vietnam-means-for-its-next-war-2021-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China invaded Vietnam out of concern over its Soviet ties</a>.</p><p>The US decided to take advantage of the split, engaging China to counter the Soviets.</p><p>In 1971, Henry Kissinger, President Richard Nixon's national security advisor, secretly visited China. Nixon made an official visit less than a year later, ending more than two decades of the two countries having no relations.</p><p>The battles also had a long-term benefit for the Chinese military. A captured Soviet T-62 tank was reverse engineered and became the model for China's Type 69 and Type 79 main battle tanks. The original T-62 is still on display at a military museum in Beijing.</p><p>China received full control of Zhenbao Island in 1991, and the remaining disputes were finally settled in 2004.</p>

A bloody battle over a tiny island raised fears that China and the Soviets would start World War III

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A months-long clash between <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> on their Himalaya border has dramatically increased tensions.</li><li>But the growing rivalry between the two Asian powers is also likely to play out in the <keyword id="12350" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indian-Ocean">Indian Ocean</keyword>.</li><li>China's navy is capable and only getting bigger, and India is trying to catch up.</li></ul><p>Last year, an all-out brawl between Chinese and Indian troops along the disputed Sino-Indian border killed 20 Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers.</p><p>The medieval-style battle in the Himalayas showed that the countries' rivalry is entering a new phase of intensity.</p><p>"China is definitely factoring larger and larger in India's defense strategy today," Timothy Heath, a senior <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> and defense researcher at the Rand Corporation think tank, told Insider.</p><p>The military focus of that rivalry has primarily been on the ground, as reflected by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-tanks-armor-could-make-future-war-much-deadlier-2021-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the buildup in the Himalayas</a>, but another <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-border-clashes-could-cause-more-indian-ocean-activity-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">area is growing in importance</a>: the Indian Ocean.</p><div type="image" title="India China troops soldiers Pangong Ladakh border" height="1000" width="2000" msid="83204985" hostid="261"></div><p>With some of the world's most <a href="https://lki.lk/publication/the-importance-of-the-indian-ocean-trade-security-and-norms/" target="_top">important</a> trade routes running through it, the Indian Ocean's value is hard to understate, which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-is-guarding-against-chinas-big-plans-across-asia-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China has already recognized</a>.</p><p>"Given its importance for China, it's pretty obvious the Chinese are elevating in priority the security needs for the maritime silk road," Heath said. "That means India has to be ready for possible situations involving China."</p><p>But Indian dominance in its home waters is far from assured. While India's navy has some advanced capabilities, China's People's Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-challenged-to-build-balanced-to-compete-with-us-navy-2021-5">substantially larger</a> and more sophisticated.</p><p>With the rivalry entering a new phase, India is trying to catch up.</p><h2>Outnumbered at sea</h2><div type="image" title="Indian Navy aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya" height="1098" width="2000" msid="83204986" hostid="261"></div><p>The <keyword id="6355100" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indian-Navy">Indian navy</keyword> isn't small or weak. Its primary combatants include 10 destroyers, 13 frigates, 17 submarines, and one aircraft carrier.</p><p>A number of India's warships, like its <a href="http://www.military-today.com/navy/kolkata_class.htm" target="_top">Kolkata-class destroyers</a> and <a href="https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/world-naval-forces/asian-navies-vessels-ships-equipment/india-indian-navy-ins-vessels-ships-equipment/india-indian-navy-destroyers-and-frigates/2492-shivalik-class-frigate-india-indian-navy-ins-guided-missile-frigate-satpura-sahyadri-datasheet-pictures-photos-video-specifications.html" target="_top">Shivalik-class frigates</a>, were commissioned within the last decade and have stealth capabilities.</p><p>Some Indian ships have modern vertical launching systems and are armed with Russian and Israeli anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. India's navy also has the <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/brahmos/" target="_top">BrahMos</a> supersonic missile, a joint Indian-Russian design that is one of the fastest missiles in the world.</p><p>Two of India's submarines are nuclear-powered: one attack submarine (SSN) on loan from Russia and one <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/arihant-class/" target="_top">Arihant-class</a> domestically designed and built ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN) - the first SSBN for a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.</p><p>India <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/navy-to-get-aircraft-carrier-vikrant-missile-destroyer-visakhapatnam-in-2021-101619498533809.html" target="_top">expects</a> to commission a second Arihant SSBN and a second aircraft carrier (also domestically designed and built) within the year. But the Indian navy is outnumbered and outclassed by the PLAN.</p><p>Chinese ships are "largely composed of modern multi-role platforms featuring advanced anti-ship, anti-air, and anti-submarine weapons and sensors," according to a <a href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF" target="_top">2020 Pentagon report</a>.</p><p>By comparison, India is "still quite a way behind the Chinese in their warship development," Heath said. "The Chinese have certainly developed some very impressive platforms, and the Indians are really trying to catch up."</p><div type="image" title="Indian Navy Scorpene-class submarine Karanj" height="1287" width="2000" msid="83204988" hostid="261"></div><p>The Indian navy's primary fighting vessels are outnumbered by the PLAN's <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP68058.html" target="_top">South Sea Fleet</a> alone, which has some 11 destroyers, 19 frigates, 22 submarines (including two SSNs and four SSBNs), and one aircraft carrier. The PLAN, now the largest navy in the world, can draw on even more vessels from its two other fleets.</p><p>To address the imbalance, the Indian navy plans on <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/features/future-ships-indian-navy/" target="_top">acquiring</a> a number of new and advanced vessels, especially <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/defence/story/20210426-india-s-nuclear-sharks-1791817-2021-04-17" target="_top">nuclear-</a><a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/defence/story/20210426-india-s-nuclear-sharks-1791817-2021-04-17" target="_top">powered</a><a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/defence/story/20210426-india-s-nuclear-sharks-1791817-2021-04-17" target="_top"> and diesel-electric submarines</a>.</p><p>Two more Arihant-class SSBNs are in production and are expected to join the fleet by 2025. Three more larger SSBNs from the new <a href="http://www.hisutton.com/S-5_SSBN.html" target="_top">S5-class</a> are also being planned.</p><p>The Indian navy also <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/project-to-build-n-powered-attack-subs-set-to-get-ccs-nod/articleshow/81770216.cms?from=mdr" target="_top">hopes</a> to build six Project-75 Alpha-class SSNs and to <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2019/03/08/india-signs-3-billion-contract-with-russia-for-lease-of-a-nuclear-submarine/" target="_top">replace</a> its leased Russian SSN INS Chakra (which will be returned soon) with another leased Akula-class SSN by 2025.</p><p>Six new <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/p75i-scorpene-class-attack-submarines/" target="_top">Project 75I-class</a> diesel-electric attack submarines have <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/the-wait-for-more-submarines-gets-longer-project-75-i-gets-delayed-further/2209149/" target="_top">been delayed</a> but could start entering Indian service by 2030.</p><p>A third aircraft carrier, INS Vishal, is planned to replace the aging INS Vikramaditya. The new carrier, not expected to be completed before 2030, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-uk-in-talks-to-build-copycat-naval-supercarrier-report/articleshow/69186727.cms" target="_top">may be based on</a> the UK's Queen Elizabeth-class supercarrier.</p><p>Seven brand-new <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/12/indian-navys-2nd-project-17a-frigate-himgiri-launched-by-grse/" target="_top">Nilgiri-Class</a> stealth frigates are also under construction, and four Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, two built by Russia and two by India, are also <a href="https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/2021/january/9586-india-procures-from-ukraine-gas-turbine-engines-for-admiral-grigorovich-class-frigates-of-indian-navy.html" target="_top">expected</a> to join India's navy before the end of the decade.</p><h2>China's 'string of pearls'</h2><div type="image" title="India navy Malabar" height="1429" width="2000" msid="83204989" hostid="261"></div><p>There is little doubt in India that the new vessels are needed. Although China is relatively far from the Indian Ocean, it has ramped up its activity there.</p><p>Over the last few years, China has taken control of ports across the Indian Ocean that have the potential to support the PLAN - a network that has been called China's "String of Pearls."</p><p>"People have been theorizing about the so-called String of Pearls for years," Heath said. "We are actually starting to see some evidence of the Chinese implementing something along these lines."</p><p>China has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/12/13/784084567/in-sri-lanka-chinas-building-spree-is-raising-questions-about-sovereignty" target="_top">taken control</a> of a port in Sri Lanka, is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/06/02/chinas-new-high-security-compound-in-pakistan-may-indicate-naval-plans/?sh=2180b3d21020" target="_top">building</a> naval facilities in Pakistan, and is pursuing port projects in <a href="https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/china-signs-deals-myanmar-create-back-door-indian-/" target="_top">Myanmar</a>, <a href="https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/china-bangladesh-strategic-linkages/" target="_top">Bangladesh</a>, and <a href="https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/falling-apart-a-story-of-the-tanzanian-bagamoyo-port-project/" target="_top">Tanzania</a>.</p><p>China already has a <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/China-adds-carrier-pier-to-Djibouti-base-extending-Indian-Ocean-reach" target="_blank" rel="noopener">military base in Djibouti</a>, but other "pearls" appear to be primarily for civilian use.</p><p>That doesn't mean those facilities couldn't be used to support PLAN vessels. A number of Chinese ships and submarines have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/sri-lanka-china-submarine/chinese-submarine-docks-in-sri-lanka-despite-indian-concerns-idINKBN0IM0LU20141102" target="_top">already docked</a> at Sri Lanka to refuel and resupply. Sri Lanka has since <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sri-lanka-china-submarine/sri-lanka-rejects-chinese-request-for-submarine-visit-sources-idUSKBN1871P9" target="_top">denied</a> Chinese requests for other warship port visits due to Indian concerns.</p><p>"The Chinese are not interested in building full-fledged bases in the US model," Heath said. "These are facilities that primarily offer refueling, repair, and replenishment to passing warships."</p><div type="image" title="India Australia US Navy P-8" height="1125" width="2000" msid="83204991" hostid="261"></div><p>India does have a few advantages over China. As the region is its backyard, it will always be able to bring more to bear against threatening Chinese vessels, such as land-based aircraft and anti-ship missiles.</p><p>India also has its own overseas outposts. It <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-sets-up-coastal-radars-in-neighbourhood-to-keep-eye-on-china-1744751-2020-11-27" target="_top">has set up</a> radar stations for maritime surveillance in Sri Lanka, Seychelles, and Mauritius; it's <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/agalega-glimpse-india-s-remote-island-military-base" target="_top">constructing</a> facilities on the Mauritian island of North Agalega, and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Seychelles-in-crosshairs-of-India-s-maritime-security-axis" target="_top">it's pursuing</a> military facilities elsewhere in the region.</p><p>India also controls the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/r-india-navy-set-to-open-third-base-in-strategic-islands-to-counter-china-2019-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strategically important islands</a> on the Indian Ocean side of the Malacca Strait. India has beefed up its military presence there, and some <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/militarising-andamans-the-costs-and-the-benefits/story-J3mGWFQS3NgLUiPYwIVb2N.html" target="_top">advocate</a> allowing partner countries to have a presence there as well. (A US Navy patrol plane <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-intelligence-sharing-with-india-helps-monitor-chinese-military-2020-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has already refueled</a> there.)</p><p>Despite the government's renewed attention, India's navy still has a ways to go. Most of its new ships and submarines will not be fully operational until the end of the decade at the earliest, and its budget is still smaller than that of India's army or air force.</p><p>India's navy will also have to compete with the considerable attention that remains <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-intelligence-sharing-with-india-helps-monitor-chinese-military-2020-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">focused on India's land borders</a>, where New Delhi also has to worry about Pakistan, the rival it has focused on almost exclusively since independence.</p><p>But the rivalry with Pakistan also has a naval element. The Pakistani terrorists who carried out the deadly 2008 attack in Mumbai <a href="https://www.stimson.org/wp-content/files/file-attachments/Mumbai-Final_1_1.pdf" target="_top">arrived by sea</a>, and Islamabad, which is a Chinese military partner, is <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/14/outgoing-pakistan-navy-chief-reveals-details-of-modernization-programs/" target="_top">modernizing its </a><a href="https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/14/outgoing-pakistan-navy-chief-reveals-details-of-modernization-programs/" target="_top">own</a><a href="https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/14/outgoing-pakistan-navy-chief-reveals-details-of-modernization-programs/" target="_top"> navy</a>, including with Chinese submarines and drones.</p>

A year after a showdown on 'the roof of the world,' India is gearing up to take on China at sea

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky, Evan Vucci, File</span></p><p class="caption">FILE - This combination file photo, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, in St. Petersburg, Russia, April 9, 2019, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Feb. 28, 2019.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korean leader Kim Jong Un crossed the border into Russia on Wednesday via his armored train ahead of a summit with the Russian President Vladimir Putin set for Thursday in the city of Vladivostok, according to reports.</li><li>The main topic of the summit, according to the Kremlin, is North Korea's nuclear program <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-russia/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-to-meet-putin-in-russia-on-thursday-kremlin-idUSKCN1RY1KT">and denuclearization</a>.</li><li>Additionally, each country is hoping to gain something from this diplomatic dance, while also trying not to step on any toes in the broader global community, reports explain.</li><li>Here's a basic rundown of what each country is seeking.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit BusinessInsider.com for more stories</a>.</li></ul><p>North Korean leader Kim Jong Un crossed into Russia on Wednesday via his armored train. Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet on Thursday in the city of Vladivostok, according to reports.</p><p>This North Korea-Russia summit - taking place roughly two months after a failed meeting between Kim and US President Donald Trump - marks the first since Kim's father Kim Jong Il traveled to Russia in 2011.</p><p>The main topic of the summit, according to the Kremlin, is North Korea's nuclear program <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-russia/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-to-meet-putin-in-russia-on-thursday-kremlin-idUSKCN1RY1KT">and denuclearization</a>.</p><p>"In the last few months the situation around the peninsula has stabilized somewhat, thanks in large part to North Korea's initiatives of stopping rocket testing and closing its nuclear test site," Yuri Iskov, an advisor to the Kremlin told Russian state media. "Russia intends to help in any way possible to cement that positive trend."</p><p>In addition, each country is hoping to gain something from this diplomatic dance, while also trying not to step on any toes in the broader global community, reports explain. Here's a basic rundown of what each country is seeking.</p><h2>North Korea</h2><ul><li>The meeting gives Kim a chance to project to the <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> community that he can meet with other world leaders besides Trump, Reuters points out.</li><li>Kim will potentially ask for the more than 10,000 North Korean laborers to remain in Russia, despite a United Nations sanctions resolution from 2017 that calls for them to be expelled at the end of the year, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/04/23/world/asia/ap-putin-kim-summit-what-kim-wants.html?searchResultPosition=1">the Associated Press reported</a>. These laborers bring a steady flow of revenue to North Korea. (However, Anthony Rinna, a writer at Sino-NK focusing on Russia-North Korea relations, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-russia-analysis/putin-kim-summit-sends-message-to-u-s-but-sanctions-relief-elusive-for-north-korea-idUSKCN1S002M">told Reuters that</a> "Moscow will be hard-pressed to accommodate Kim given its desire to portray a responsible image in the world.")</li><li>Kim also likely wants Putin to side with North Korea on the easing of sanctions. The US and its allies have applied a "maximum pressure" approach of economic sanctions push North Korea to denuclearize. After the summit collapsed in Hanoi in February, Trump said that North Korea would have to do something "meaningful" to before sanctions were lifted and the two countries have dug in on their hard lines.</li><li>North Korea is also courting broader Russian trade and investment into its infrastructure, the AP explains.</li><li>Finally, the AP reports that Kim is concerned about pot entail food shortages, and Reuters points out that Russia sent 2,000 tons of wheat to North Korea this year and is poised to send more through its World Food Programme.</li></ul><h2>Russia</h2><ul><li>Russia would like to exert more influence in the region (and weaken the United States' influence), without upsetting China, North Korea's main regional partner.</li><li>According to the <a href="https://apnews.com/5fb86dab3ebd4bcb9f26318c88afc25c">Associated Press</a>, Russia would also like to "gain broader access to North Korea's mineral resources, including rare metals."</li><li>This is a moment for Putin to show his influence on the global stage, even if Russia is "unlikely to risk its authority at the United Nations by overtly breaching sanctions," <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-russia-analysis/putin-kim-summit-sends-message-to-us-but-sanctions-relief-elusive-for-north-korea-idUSKCN1S002M">Reuters reported</a>.</li></ul>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-airline-shuttle-transportation-pan-am-eastern-new-york-2019-1">The rise and fall of Donald Trump's $365 million airline</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un crossed the border into Russia on his armored train ahead of a meeting with Putin

<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">The Russia-China friendship could lead to some interesting changes on the global stage. </span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">And the biggest changes are occurring far away of Washington's orbit.</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>Although the Sino-Russo relationship <a href="http://tass.ru/en/economy/773009">predates the Ukraine conflict</a>, there's no question that the crisis shifted Moscow even more towards Beijing.</p><p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><span>Over the last year, we saw the two countries sign highly publicized </span><span></span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-learning-mandarin-in-the-tundra---russia-invites-china-into-oil-business-2015-4">energy</a><span> </span><span></span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-sign-billion-gas-pipeline-mega-deal-2014-5">deals</a><span>, conduct joint </span><span></span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-and-russia-holding-joint-military-exercises-in-mediterranean-2014-11">military exercises</a><span>, and even generally support each others' </span><span></span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-and-russia-are-partnering-on-an-unprecedented-scale-2015-1">foreign policy adventures</a><span>.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><span>And this shift has more implications than just short-term deals.</span></span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1">Russia pulling towards China wil</span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">l lead to "expanded" political cooperation in three areas: "cooperation in Central Asia; alternatives to the Bretton Woods institutions; and increased cooperation on domestic political issues," although the two countries will "likely stop short of a formal military alliance," </span><a href="http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR126_-_A_Soft_Alliance_Russia-China_Relations_After_the_Ukraine_Crisis.pdf">according to Alexander Gabuev</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">, a </span><a href="https://twitter.com/alexgabuev">senior associate</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> and chair of Russia in Asia-Pacific Program at Carnegie Moscow Center.</span></p><p class="p1">The Beijing-led, Moscow-supported "answers to the Bretton Woods institutions" such as the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-allies-joining-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-aiib-embarrassment-2015-3">Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</a> (<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-summers-on-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-2015-4">AIIB</a>)<span> and the </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-brics-set-up-bank-to-counter-western-hold-on-global-finances-2014-15">BRICS Development Bank</a> have already been created.</p><p class="p1"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><span>Furthermore, the decreasing global influence of the US -specifically in Central Asia and the Middle East - leaves room for a new regional economic and political powerhouse in those regions.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">"It is in Inner Asia - Afghanistan, Mongolia, and the five post-Soviet states of Central Asia - that is likely to see the most impact from the deepening of Sino-Russia integration," writes <span>the director of Carnegie Moscow Center </span><a href="https://twitter.com/dmitritrenin">Dmitri Trenin</a> in <a href="http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=59728#">a paper on the Sino-Russo entente</a>.</span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1">"What is likely to emerge is a trade and investment zone covering all of central, northern, and eastern Eurasia. With China as its powerhouse, this area can be called Great Asia - from Shanghai, its business center, to St. Petersburg, its outpost at Europe's doorstep."</span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1"><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><span style="color: #222222; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">And we're already seeing this happen:</span></span></span></p><ul><li><span style="color: #000000;">There's the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-builds-moscow-to-beijing-high-speed-train-2014-12">high-speed rail link</a> that will eventually connect Moscow to Beijing.</span></li><li><span style="color: #000000;">The development of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-a-crucial-advantage-over-the-us-in-the-arctic-2015-4">Northern Sea Route</a> shipping lane from Asia to Europe across the Arctic.</span></li><li><span style="color: #000000;">Putin agreed to give the planned <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-planning-to-rebuild-the-silk-road-and-transform-global-trade-routes-2015-4">Silk Road Economic belt</a> (a regional trade and transportation plan that has been "Xi's foreign policy priority since 2013") the "green light after Xi agreed to include Trans-Siberian and BAM railways in the scheme," writes <a href="http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR126_-_A_Soft_Alliance_Russia-China_Relations_After_the_Ukraine_Crisis.pdf">Gabuev</a>.</span></li><li><span style="color: #000000;">There's the <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/int/sco.htm">Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)</a>, a political, economic, and military organization founded in 2001, whose members include China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.</span></li><li><span style="color: #000000;">And Russia may even "finally support the creation of an SCO development bank with registered capital of $10 billion," writes <a href="http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR126_-_A_Soft_Alliance_Russia-China_Relations_After_the_Ukraine_Crisis.pdf">Gabuev</a>.</span></li></ul><p><span style="color: #000000;">"<span>In lieu of a [Putin's vision for a] Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, a Greater Asia from Shanghai to St. Petersburg is in the making</span><span>," writes Trenin.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000;"><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">So what does all of this increased Sino-Russo cooperation and integration mean for the world?</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000;"><span>Basically, Russia's increased economic and political cooperation with China and other non-Western countries will push for a world order that aims to reduce US global dominance, according to Trenin.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000;"><span>The new reality isn't quite a new eastern bloc, but rather a clear signal that "t</span></span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">he epoch of post-communist Russia's integration with the West is over," says Trenin.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em; color: #000000;">"The Sino-Russian entente - with its unstated, but transparent goal of reducing US global dominance - is easily the most important result of the Ukraine crisis and the preceding deterioration of Russia-Western relations," </span><a href="http://www.dw.de/russias-pivot-to-asia-a-sino-russian-entente/a-18385640">Trenin told Deutsche Welle</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em; color: #000000;">. </span><span style="color: #000000; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">"The West needs to take this seriously."</span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/time-saving-formatting-shortcuts-excel-microsoft-spreadsheet-2015-4">6 shortcuts in Excel that will save you a ton of time</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="s2eWVycTpB8W04mVKP6-rNgKfb8IFiF_" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Something's brewing in Central Asia and the West 'needs to take this seriously'

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Russian President <keyword id="43440" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vladimir-Putin">Vladimir Putin</keyword> at the 15th <keyword id="1498128" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="India-Russia-Annual-Summit">India-Russia Annual Summit</keyword> in New Delhi next month, it will add a new chapter in Modi’s efforts to strengthen bilateral ties with India’s neighbours and power centres in the region after assuming power. Modi has already visited Japan where he tried to hard-sell India as a manufacturing destination, asking Japanese investors to ‘come and make in India,’ and signed deals that will lead to Japanese investments worth $35 billion over five years. Chinese President <keyword id="191809" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Xi-Jinping">Xi Jinping</keyword> too visited India in a bid to tilt Sino-Indian relation more towards cooperation and co-existence, especially from the perspective of trade and economic growth despite continuing tensions at the border between the two countries. Modi’s meeting with Putin will help expand India’s relation with one of its close allies since gaining independence, and in turn broaden its influence over the larger Euro-Asian region.<br />
<br />
For Putin, this will the fifth visit to India as Russian president—he made his maiden visit to India in 2002 during his first term as president; followed by three trips in 2005, 2007 and 2012 (the last one was eclipsed by massive protests in New Delhi following the gang rape).<br />
<br /> In addition to strengthening the political foundation for bilateral relation for the years to come, Putin’s visit will give a boost to four areas—defence, space, civil nuclear energy and trade. The two countries are expected to sign deals for co-production of mid-range military and civilian aircraft, including MC-21 mid-range aircraft whose mass production will begin in 2017. India is mooting the idea of jointly manufacturing the aircraft in the country as part of the ‘Make in India’ campaign, leading to creation of domestic jobs and transfer of aircraft technology. Plans are also afoot to build production plants in India for Sukhoi Superjet-100 and KA-226 helicopters, both of which can be used for military and civilian purposes. <keyword id="44734" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Government">Indian government</keyword> is also hopeful about collaborating with <keyword id="6358826" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia">Russia</keyword> on aircraft engine manufacturing projects. A major portion of Indian military's hardware requirement is already sourced from Russia, making Russia one of the leading suppliers of defence equipment.<br />
<br />
The two countries are also expected to enhance cooperation in the field of space exploration. Russia is already supporting India’s ambitious plan to launch the first two Indian astronauts into space by 2015—Russia is expected to help build the astronaut capsule; select and train the astronauts; and offer Indian astronauts a trial run abroad its Soyuz spacecraft . Space instrument engineering is another area where cooperation between the two countries is expected.<br />
<br />
In order to strengthen joint efforts in civil nuclear energy, Putin is expected to visit Kudankulam Atomic Power Project site in Tamil Nadu, which may also lead to joint exploration of other similar projects.  <br />
<br /> With both the countries setting a target of bilateral trade worth $20 billion by 2015, business and investment will be a key part of discussions between Modi and Putin. Stronger trade relation with India is especially important for Russian following its self-imposed ban on food imports—meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, milk and milk products—from the US, the EU, Canada, Norway and Australia in retaliation to Western sanctions imposed over Russia's actions in <keyword id="6355101" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ukraine">Ukraine</keyword>. For India closer ties with Russia also means enhanced support for its bid for permanent membership of United Nations Security Council.<br />
<br />
Putin visit will also offer an opportunity to juxtapose two of the two strongest leaders in the Euro-Asian region. While Putin, who is accused of stifling freedom, is seen to be courting autocratic means to strengthen his grip within Russia and outside, Modi has already won kudos for giving a decisive strategic vision for a resurging India while positioning himself as the prime minister of the biggest democratic country in the world. A better bonhomie between the two leaders will also augur well for India’s efforts to counter China’s growing military and political influence in the region.<br />
 <br />

What Can Be Expected From Putin’s Forthcoming India Visit: Trade Worth $20 Mn or More?

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Mike Nudelman/Business Insider</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Edward Jay Epstein of The Wall Street Journal has <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304831304579542402390653932">published an article</a> in which he lays out the argument of Edward Snowden's most ardent critics.</p>
<p><span>The strongest allegation against Snowden is that he is a witting or unwitting agent of a foreign intelligence operation against the U.S. (rather than a whistleblower).</span></p>
<p><span>A former member of President Obama's cabinet told Epstein in March "that there are only three possible explanations for the Snowden heist: 1) It was a Russian espionage operation; 2) It was a Chinese espionage operation, or 3) It was a joint Sino-Russian operation."</span></p>
<p>Top U.S. officials have previously asserted that Snowden accessed or "touched" up to 1.7 million documents, and that the vast majority that he took were related to American <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/snowden-and-military-information-2014-3#ixzz31R8yRbgX%20">military capabilities</a>.</p>
<p>Snowden denies that he intended to take<span> military information</span>. The 30-year-old also contends that he gave up all of the classified information to the journalists he met in Hong Kong, but there are <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/when-did-snowden-give-up-the-nsa-files-2013-10">numerous indications</a> that is not the case.</p>
<p>On June 12, two days after parting ways with Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras, <span>Snowden </span><a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1268209/snowden-sought-booz-allen-job-gather-evidence-nsa-surveillance?page=all">told the South China Morning Post</a><span> that he wanted to go through the information he had and leak more later.</span></p>
<p><span> The NSA believes Snowden gave <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nsa-leaks-could-have-just-begun-2013-12">200,000</a> documents to Greenwald and Poitras. The whereabouts of other documents, including some of America's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/amnesty-and-edward-snowden-2013-12">most closely held secrets</a>, is unclear.</span></p>
<p><span>Epstein, citing current and former government officials with intelligence clearances, reports that<span> Snowden stole <span>documents </span> from "at least 24 supersecret compartments that stored them on computers, each of which required a password that a perpetrator had to steal or borrow, or forge an encryption key to bypass."</span></span></p>
<p><span>The NSA believes Snowden started downloading documents in mid-2012 while working at Dell in Hawaii. </span>An NSA civilian employee <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/us-usa-security-idUSBREA1C1MR20140213">resigned in January</a> after inadvertently letting Snowden use his password to access information he was not authorized to see. </p>
<p>Snowden reportedly installed a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/edward-snowden-scraper-2014-2">web crawler</a> to scrape specific documents when he began his job at Booz Allen in mid-April 2013. The two documents with the biggest domestic implications - the Verizon <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/06/nsa-phone-records-verizon-court-order">order</a> compelling U.S. phone records and the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-prism-surveillance-works-2013-6">PRISM</a> slides - are from April 2013. However, U.S. officials say that most of the documents have nothing<span> to do with civil liberties or whistleblowing.</span></p>
<p>Beyond the stolen cache, Snowden's knowledge of the NSA's computer systems and vetting structure make him a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-edward-snowden-is-stuck-2014-4">very valuable asset</a> for a U.S. adversary.</p>

A Former Obama Cabinet Official Made The Strongest Snowden Allegation Yet

<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><em><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>In this excerpt from <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Russia-China-Axis-America%C2%92s-Leadership/dp/1594037566" target="_blank">T</a></em><em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Russia-China-Axis-America%C2%92s-Leadership/dp/1594037566" target="_blank">he Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War And America's Crisis Of Leadership</a> authors Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan argue that only a rebirth of American global leadership can combat the growing threat from the Russian-Chinese axis. </em></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Russia and China now cooperate and coordinate to an unprecedented degree-politically, militarily, economically-and their cooperation, almost without deviation, carries anti-American and anti-Western ramifications. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Russia, China and a constellation of satellite states seek to undermine American power, dislodge America from its leading position in the world, and establish a new, anti-Western global power structure.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">And both Russia in Eastern and Central Europe and China throughout Asia are becoming increasingly aggressive and assertive, even hegemonic, in the absence of a systematic US response-not <span>withstanding the Obama administration's "strategic pivot to Asia."</span><span><br /></span></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">For now, the most obvious example of American impotence is the Russian repossession of Crimea in March 2014 and the seemingly inexorable preparation for further territorial claims in Ukraine. Here as elsewhere, Russia, with the quiet but clear backing of China, has called America's-and the West's-bluff, with little consequence. </span></span></p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p>In short, there is a new Cold War in progress, with our old adversaries back in the game, more powerful than they have been for decades, and with America more confused and tentative than it has been since the Carter years.</p>
<p>Those in the Russia-China Axis now operate against American and Western interests in nearly every conceivable area. Their efforts include the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="color: #000000; line-height: 1.5em;">Overseeing massive military buildups of conventional and nuclear forces, on which they often collaborate and supply each other, as well as of missile defense-on which they have signed an agreement of partnership</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #000000; line-height: 1.5em;">Conducting aggressive and often underhanded trade and eco- nomic policies-in everything from major gas and oil deals to collaboration with newly developed nations on creating alternative <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> financial institutions</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 1.5em; color: #000000;">Taking aggressive action to consolidate and expand territorial claims in their spheres</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em; color: #000000;"> of influence, often in violation of UN norms: Russia in Central Asia and its "near abroad"; China, with its belligerence toward various disputed islands in the East and South China Seas and also toward its Asian neighbors</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 1.5em; color: #000000;"></span><span style="line-height: 1.5em; color: #000000;">Facilitating rogue regimes, both economically and militarily, especially in regard to nuclear weaponry. China has kept the deranged North Korean regime afloat for years with economic aid and enabled Pyongyang's nuclear pursuits by its refusal to enforce UN sanctions. Russia has bankrolled Iran's nuclear program and also acted as Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's strongest ally, showering his regime with weapons systems, bases, and funding-even as Putin has played a key role in spearheading the diplomatic agreement calling for Assad to turn over his chemical weapons</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #000000; line-height: 1.5em;"> Using energy resources and other raw materials as weapons in trade wars</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #000000; line-height: 1.5em;">Acting as the two leading perpetrators of cyber warfare world- wide-activity almost entirely directed against US or Western targets</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #000000; line-height: 1.5em;">Waging a war of intelligence theft and espionage against the West-an effort that has gone on for years but was epitomized in 2013, when China temporarily sheltered, and then Russia accepted for asylum, American NSA contractor and intelligence leaker Edward Snowden</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #000000; line-height: 1.5em;">Facilitating, albeit indirectly, terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #000000; line-height: 1.5em;">Standing together at the UN, as when the Russians vetoed-and the Chinese abstained from voting on-a Security Council resolution declaring the Crimea referendum invalid</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="page" title="Page 39">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Indeed, Russia and China exacerbate virtually every threat or problem facing the United States today-from terrorism to the war in Afghanistan to instability in the Western hemisphere and the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran. </span></p>
<p><span>We understand why, to some ears, this argument might sound extreme or unfounded. The recent warmth between the two regimes masks a long history of division and hostility, most recently during the Cold War, when the Sino-Soviet split divided the Communist world.</span></p>
<p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">The relations of the two countries reached a nadir in 1969, when tensions between them nearly led to all-out war. But since Mikhail Gorbachev's visit to China in May 1989, and especially since the fall of the Soviet Union a few years later, growing strategic affinity has prompted stronger bilateral ties. To be sure, the two nations remain rivals as well as partners in the Far East. The Russians, in particular, worry about Chinese expansionism and the penetration of Chinese refugees into their sphere of influence.</span></span></p>
<p><span>The Chinese worry about Russian desires to merge the former Soviet republics into some kind of alternative European Union, thus threatening Chinese economic opportunities in Central Asia.</span><span> </span></p>
<p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>It's certainly possible that their shared interests could erode under the pressure of competition and divergent goals.</span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p><em>Excerpted with permission from <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Russia-China-Axis-America%C2%92s-Leadership/dp/1594037566" target="_blank">T</a><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Russia-China-Axis-America%C2%92s-Leadership/dp/1594037566" target="_blank">he Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War And America's Crisis Of Leadership</a> by Douglas Schoen and Melik Kaylan. <a href="https://twitter.com/danielhalper" target="_blank"></a>Excerpted with permission by Encounter Books. Copyright © 2014. All rights reserved.</em></p>
<p> </p>

China And Russia Are Partnering On An Unprecedented Scale

<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>Within the next few weeks, after years of stalling and evasion, Iran may at last agree to curb its nuclear programme.</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> In exchange for relief from sanctions it will accept, in principle, that it should allow intrusive inspections and limit how much uranium will cascade through its centrifuges. </span></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">After 2025 Iran will gradually be allowed to expand its efforts. It insists these are peaceful, but the world is convinced they are designed to produce a nuclear weapon.</span></p><p>In a barnstorming speech to America's Congress on March 3rd, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, fulminated against the prospect of such a deal (see page 41). Because it is temporary and leaves much of the Iranian programme intact, he said, it merely "paves Iran's path to the bomb". Determined and malevolent, a nuclear Iran would put the world under the shadow of nuclear war.</p><p>Mr Netanyahu is wrong about the deal. It is the best on offer and much better than no deal at all, which would lead to stalemate, cheating and, eventually, the dash to the very bomb he fears. But he is right to worry about nuclear war--and not just because of Iran.</p><p>Twenty-five years after the Soviet collapse, the world is entering a new nuclear age. Nuclear strategy has become a cockpit of rogue regimes and regional foes jostling with the five original nuclear-weapons powers (America, Britain, France, China and Russia), whose own dealings are infected by suspicion and rivalry.</p><p>Thanks in part to Mr Netanyahu's efforts, Iran commands worldwide attention. Unfortunately, the rest of the nuclear-weapons agenda is bedevilled by complacency and neglect.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></p><h3>The fallout from Prague</h3><p>After the end of the cold war the world clutched at the idea that nuclear annihilation was off the table. When Barack Obama, speaking in Prague in 2009, backed the aim to rid the world of nuclear weapons, he was treated not as a peacenik but as a statesman. Today his ambition seems a fantasy. Although the world continues to comfort itself with the thought that mutually assured destruction is unlikely, the risk that somebody somewhere will use a nuclear weapon is growing apace.</p><p>Every nuclear power is spending lavishly to upgrade its atomic arsenal. Russia's defence budget has grown by over 50% since 2007, and fully a third of it is devoted to nuclear weapons: twice the share of, say, France. China, long a nuclear minnow, is adding to its stocks and investing heavily in submarines and mobile missile batteries.</p><p>Pakistan is amassing dozens of battlefield nukes to make up for its inferiority to India in conventional forces. North Korea is thought to be capable of adding a warhead a year to its stock of around ten, and is working on missiles that can strike the west coast of the United States. Even the Nobel peace laureate in the White House has asked Congress for almost $350 billion to undertake a decade-long programme of modernisation of America's arsenal.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">New actors with more versatile weapons have turned nuclear doctrine into guesswork. Even during the cold war, despite all that game theory and brainpower, the Soviet Union and America frequently misread what the other was up to. India and Pakistan, with little experience and less contact, have virtually nothing to guide them in a crisis but mistrust and paranoia. If weapons proliferate in the Middle East, as Iran and then Saudi Arabia and possibly Egypt join Israel in the ranks of nuclear powers, each will have to manage a bewildering four-dimensional stand-off.</span></p><p>Worst of all is the instability. During much of the cold war the two superpowers, anxious to avoid Armageddon, were willing to tolerate the status quo. Today the ground is shifting under everyone's feet.</p><p>Some countries want nuclear weapons to prop up a tottering state. Pakistan insists its weapons are safe, but the outside world cannot shake the fear that they may fall into the hands of Islamist terrorists, or even religious zealots within its own armed forces. When history catches up with North Korea's Kim dynasty, as sooner or later it must, nobody knows what will happen to its nukes--whether they might be inherited, sold, eliminated or, in a last futile gesture, detonated.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Others want nuclear weapons not to freeze the status quo, but to change it. Russia has started to wield nuclear threats as an offensive weapon in its strategy of intimidation. Its military exercises routinely stage dummy nuclear attacks on such capitals as Warsaw and Stockholm. Mr Putin's speeches contain veiled nuclear threats. Dmitry Kiselev, one of the Kremlin's mouthpieces, has declared with relish that Russian nuclear forces could turn America into "radioactive ash".</span></p><p>Just rhetoric, you may say. But the murder of Boris Nemtsov, an opposition leader, on the Kremlin's doorstep on February 27th was only the latest sign that Mr Putin's Russia is heading into the geopolitical badlands (see page 33). Resentful, nationalistic and violent, it wants to rewrite the Western norms that underpin the status quo.</p><p>First in Georgia and now in Ukraine, Russia has shown it will escalate to extremes to assert its hold over its neighbours and convince the West that intervention is pointless. Even if Mr Putin is bluffing about nuclear weapons (and there is no reason to think he is), any nationalist leader who comes after him could be even more dangerous.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></p><h3>Towards midnight</h3><p>China poses a more distant threat, but an unignorable one. Although Sino-American relations hardly look like the cold war, China seems destined to challenge the United States for supremacy in large parts of Asia; its military spending is growing by 10% or more a year. Nuclear expansion is designed to give China a chance to retaliate using a "second strike", should America attempt to destroy its arsenal.</p><p>Yet the two barely talk about nuclear contingencies--and a crisis over, say, Taiwan could escalate alarmingly. In addition Japan, seeing China's conventional military strength, may feel it can no longer rely on America for protection. If so, Japan and South Korea could go for the bomb--creating, with North Korea, another petrifying regional stand-off.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">What to do? The most urgent need is to revitalise nuclear diplomacy. One priority is to defend the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which slows the spread of weapons by reassuring countries that their neighbours are not developing nukes. It was essential that Iran stayed in the treaty (unlike North Korea, which left).</span></p><p>The danger is that, like Iran, signatories will see enrichment and reprocessing as preparation for a bomb of their own--leading their neighbours to enrich in turn. That calls for a collective effort to discourage enrichment and reprocessing, and for America to shore up its allies' confidence.</p><p>You don't have to like the other side to get things done. Arms control became a vital part of Soviet-American relations. So it could between China and America, and between America and Putin's Russia. Foes such as India and Pakistan can foster stability simply by talking. The worst time to get to know your adversary is during a stand-off.</p><p>In 1960 Albert Wohlstetter, an American nuclear strategist, wrote that, "We must contemplate some extremely unpleasant possibilities, just because we want to avoid them." So too today, the essential first step in confronting the growing nuclear threat is to stare it full in the face.</p><p>Click <a href="https://subscriptions.economist.com/nwcd">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist</p><p> </p><p>This article was from The Economist and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container nc_pixel"><div class="image"></div></div></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-headphones-tricks-2015-2">14 things you didn't know your iPhone headphones could do</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="o2OGM3czpWcydnvhjbkDBd6feXPuExiD" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

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