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<ul><li>The Indian alcoholic beverages market is projected to grow at 11% per annum in value terms for the period between 2021 to 2025. </li><li>The alcohol and <keyword id="1453601" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="beverage-industry" source="Orion">beverage industry</keyword> in India is projected to cross 1200 million cases in volume by 2025. </li><li>India’s alcoholic beverages industry is having to deal with several obstacles – from tourists triggering pandemic scares to varying excise duties across the country. </li><li>Consumers are also switching from beer to whisky, rum, brandy and scotch on budgetary and health concerns. </li></ul>A growing spurt in post-pandemic social gatherings and socialising is seeing an uptick in food and beverages consumption, boosting <keyword id="13627872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Alcohol-sales-in-India" source="Orion">alcohol sales in India</keyword>. Consumers are also switching from beer to brown liquor like whisky, rum, brandy and scotch on budgetary and health concerns, industry experts say. “There has been a revenge buying going on in the market in the past 6 months. Many have shifted from beer to higher alcohol content products. Beer is comparatively more expensive as people tend to buy more of it due to less alcohol content,” said Ishwaraj Bhatia, COO of craft beer company <keyword id="138117" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="simba" source="Orion">Simba</keyword>, which witnessed a 35% growth post-pandemic. Indians have been getting out in droves to socialise in restaurants, clubs, pubs and bars – making up for all the lost social interactions after the Covid-19 pandemic’s forced isolation. Bangalore-based Ironhill, which claims to be the world’s largest microbrewery, clocked an overall sales in excess of ₹150 crore in 2022 alone. “The post pandemic era has been promising to us in many ways. Our sales have improved by steady dine-in footfalls across all our outlets. The consumption has been the highest in Bengaluru by a huge margin, followed by Vijayawada in Andhra Pradesh and outlets in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh,” said <keyword id="12042815" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="teja-chekuri" source="Orion">Teja Chekuri</keyword>, Managing Partner of Ironhill India. Dine-in business of quick service restaurants or QSRs saw a strong growth in Q1FY2023 according to a <keyword id="87153" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="bnp-paribas" source="Orion">BNP Paribas</keyword> sector report. That bodes well for <keyword id="25441" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Alcohol-consumption" source="Orion">alcohol consumption</keyword> too. According to a Mirae Asset QSR report 2022, pubs, clubs and bars comprise 27% of the sales share. Pubs and bars are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.8% and 9.5% in FY25, Paribas said. Indian alcohol beverage market is the third largest market in the world after China and USA by volume. This market is projected to grow at 11% per annum in value terms in 2021-2025, while by volume it is projected to cross 1200 million cases by<a href="https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/download/380455/Sula%20Vineyards%20Limited%20-%20DRHP_20220719121719.pdf"> 2025</a>. Changing excise policies a challenge Even as the alcoholic beverages industry in India slowly gets back on the road to recovery, it is having to deal with several obstacles – from tourists triggering pandemic scares to varying excise duties across the country. Delhi, a major market for alcoholic beverages, recently changed its excise policy. From September 1, Delhi and Ghaziabad went back to their old excise policies, leaving private players in the lurch. Private players were offering one plus one free alcohol to sell the remaining stock before the old excise policy came back. “The old excise policy favoured the private players more than the government vendors. Label and registration fees have gone up 100 fold and marketing is restricted. For registering a label in Delhi, we have to pay ₹15 lakh per year. For us, Delhi has been very expensive from the beginning, “ said Simba’s Bhatia. The entrepreneurs in the industry say Tier 1 cities were facing hiccups getting back on track due to the high inflow of travellers post pandemic leading to Covid cases. The tier 2 and tier 3 cities were quicker to adapt. “It is more difficult to sell alcohol in India rather than abroad because every state is a different country with its own excise rules. We have a separate team just to monitor the rapid changes in excise rules across states in India. The southern region of India is especially difficult to tap into as it forms 40% of the beer sales,” said Bhatia. Despite these issues, the Indian alcoholic beverage industry is expecting to grow robustly in the next few years and are looking to expand. UK-based research agency <keyword id="14971974" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="iwsr-drinks" source="Orion">IWSR Drinks</keyword> market analysis says Indian spirits segments will grow 4.4% in the next five years while beer will grow 9.3%. “We have been pushing our franchise model quite aggressively and have already begun talks for outlets in Maharashtra, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan among other states. We plan to have at least 30 outlets across India in the next few years,” said Ironhill India’s Chekuri. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/sanjay-khanna-appointed-ceo-of-american-express-india/articleshow/94169933.cms">Sanjay Khanna appointed CEO of American Express India</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/a-fire-at-an-ev-showroom-has-killed-8-several-injured-while-trying-to-escape/articleshow/94167880.cms">A fire at an EV showroom has killed 8, several injured while trying to escape</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech-buying-guides/amazon-great-indian-festival-sale-kickstarter-deals-revealed/articleshow/94157835.cms">Amazon Great Indian Festival Sale: Kickstarter deals revealed</a>

Spurt in social gatherings post-Covid is boosting alcohol sales in India

<ul><li>Started in 2016, <keyword id="9581444" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="simba-craft-beer">Simba Craft Beer</keyword> has already been able to carve a way for itself in the market.</li><li>Word of mouth has played a huge role in the brand's growth and has been instrumental in helping them develop a base of brand loyalists, shares <keyword id="6862143" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Prabhtej-Singh-Bhatia">Prabhtej Singh Bhatia</keyword>, Founder and CEO of Simba <keyword id="782706" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Craft-Beer">Craft Beer</keyword>.</li><li>He tells us how despite being a difficult year, in 2020 the company has already touched Rs 150 crore from the Rs 125 crore last year<a name="_GoBack"></a>.</li><li>Bhatia also tells us that in the next 5 years, he sees the craft beer segment take a leap and takeover 10-11% of the market instead on the current 1-2%. </li></ul> The <keyword id="91743" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="lockdown">lockdown</keyword> this year came right before the summer season. Many brands that rely heavily on the season like home appliances, travel etc were impacted substantially due to the complete country-wide lockdown. Another industry that was severely affected due to this move was the <keyword id="467068" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="liquor-industry">liquor industry</keyword>. The summer months usually mean peak sale time for liquor brands, especially beers. However, with the gradual opening up of the country, things are slowly starting to look up. We recently caught up with Prabhtej Singh Bhatia, Founder and CEO of Simba Craft Beer. Started in 2016, the brand has already been able to carve a way for itself in the market. Primarily relying on word-of-mouth marketing, Simba has been able to develop a loyal consumer base in the country. Despite entering a segment that has had a lot of well-established players, the brand has been witnessing impressive growth. Bhatia tells us how they have been able to drive differentiation, and how word of mouth has worked wonders for the brand. Excerpts: <li>Q) Simba was launched in 2016 but when you launched, you hardly did any marketing around it then. How did you manage to woo Indian beer drinkers who have been loyalists of a lot of other brands?</li> Since the inception of the brand, our brand philosophy has been that if you build a great product, then it speaks for itself. Our focus for Simba has been to first get the product right and then work upon building a strong knit community of consumers who love the product. We truly believe in our product and it has carved a niche for itself in the country. Having said that, we did a bit of marketing. we always wanted to build a brand from ground-up. <li>Q) Your job must have been difficult as you were competing in a category that had a lot of global, much well-established players. How were you able to create a differentiation for yourself?</li> We largely depended on word-of-mouth promotion and still stick to that. And because of a much higher quality and differentiated product we were able to capture the imagination of several people and make our presence felt. When we entered the market, the industry had been stagnant for a while with old players and consumers did not have a lot of options. They consumed the same kind of beer packaged under different labels. It’s fairly recent since a new wave of craft beer enthusiasts emerged and is growing now. Consumers today are receptive to change and are open to experimenting with new offerings. Simba has been able to disrupt the already existing limited categories (strong and lager) of beer by introducing quality product and in new variants. <li>Q) You say word-of-mouth played an important role initially. Has your marketing strategy evolved now? </li> Word of mouth played a huge role in our growth, it has been instrumental in helping us develop a base of brand loyalists. We continue to be cognizant of our brand associations, events we host or partner with and the kind of consumer segment we reach out, to ensure our key message reaches the right set of audience. This has helped us create a niche for ourselves in the market/industry. <li>Q) You have already launched an IP. Tell us a bit about Simba Uproar.</li> Simba has been working hard to support local underground artists in helping them find a strong foothold in the industry. We want to provide artists and consumers with relevant platforms to showcase their talent. For this we launched our own IP called Simba Uproar where we have worked with artists such as Blot!,Sequel, Ritviz, Ten Walls, George Fitzgerald and Seedhe Maut. In light of the current health crisis, we took our IP to consumers’ homes with Simba Roar from Home – a series of cool gigs, good music and great beer in the comfort of homes. Making this a twice a month property to engage with music lovers, Simba live streams a local artists from varied genres who play their curated playlists. <li>Q) You have also launched a range of merchandise. How has the reception been so far? How are you growing that vertical? Are you only promoting it on the digital medium?</li> Our merchandise is something that was born out of consumer demand and love for the brand. We are building it very organically and do not do a lot of marketing for it. Our focus is and will remain our beer. Our brand loyalists have shown us constant support, be it our beer or our merchandise. It has been received well by Simba loyalists and has grown ever since. <li>Q) How big is the brand right now and what is your target revenue for the next year? And how do you aim to achieve this? </li> We have witnessed tremendous growth. This year our company had already touched Rs 150 crore from Rs 125 crore last year<a name="_GoBack"></a>. The year so far has been challenging due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact of business across industries, including the liquor industry. Things are beginning to look up as we move towards resuming normalcy, and we are positive and hopeful about the year ahead and 2021. <li>Q) How are you looking at expanding your offering while also strengthening your distribution?</li> We are looking at foraying into a new segment with our kegs, these will be available throughout the country. We also aim to enter Kerala in southern markets and strengthen our presence in Karnataka state among others. There are some very good distributers present in the industry who are doing a great job. We are in talks with them for our business as well. <li>Q) What was the business impact of the lockdown on your company? </li> Our business greatly suffered in terms of sales during the month of April and May due to COVID-19 lockdown. We almost made zero sales during those two months, which has impacted the business. April and May used to contribute to almost 25-30% of the annual revenue. <li>Q) What lessons of resilience did you learn after the lockdown? Has it made your business more future-ready?</li> The pandemic has forced us all to revisit our basics and stick to them. We realized the fundamentals of any company are very important, financial prudence is more important than ever now. We are definitely more future-ready and fundamentally aligned following this experience. COVID-19 has taught us that sticking to ones fundamentals never goes wrong and has paved a way for a better future. <li>Q) How do you see the craft beer segment evolve in the next few years?</li> I think the craft beer segment is destined to grow with some hit on the <keyword id="1126722" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="microbrewery">microbrewery</keyword> side. In the next 5 years, I do see it taking a leap and takeover 10-11% of the market instead on 1-2% right now.

Word of mouth played a huge role in our growth, helped us develop a base of brand loyalists: Prabhtej Singh Bhatia, Simba Craft Beer

<ul><li>In an interview with Business Insider, <keyword id="6862143" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Prabhtej-Singh-Bhatia">Prabhtej Singh Bhatia</keyword>, co-founder of <keyword id="7455615" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="simba-beer">Simba beer</keyword>, says the brand is for India’s millennials who wanted the real taste of beer. </li><li>In 2017-18, the company reported a revenue of ₹76 crore in 2017-18 and ₹125 crore in 2018-19. </li><li>The beer is available in the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Goa, Kolkata and the states of Chattisgarh and Assam</li></ul>India’s homegrown beer market has gained popularity with the likes of <keyword id="3195140" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bira91">Bira91</keyword>, <keyword id="138117" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Simba">Simba</keyword>, White Rhino among others, serving Indian millennials with tasteful beer in quirky bottles. Simba beer which is now found on shelves at Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Goa, Kolkata and the states of Chattisgarh and Assam, actually started off in Durg, Chattisgarh. Born to a family that has been in the liquor business since 1948, 27-year old Prabhtej Singh Bhatia decided to build a brewery in the state where he grew up in. And now, Simba is opening its second brewery in Arunachal Pradesh as it plans to conquer the North Eastern market. The company officially launched its first beer Simba Strong in market in 2016, and followed it up with Lager, Wit and Stout. It reported revenue of ₹76 crore in 2017-18 and ₹125 crore in 2018-19. “Now we want to further strengthen our presence in these markets and not just grow geographically. By the end of the year, I hope to offer a portfolio of beer products to all of these cities we are currently in,” Bhatia told Business Insider India. But they have competition in the form of Bira91 which is also growing fast in numbers and geographically too. “In the price range we are in, we are behind only Bira in terms of absolute volumes,” said Bhatia. How he did it In 2009, Bhatia went to the UK for his graduation and when he came home for summers, he realised the lack of a product level distinction of beer in India. “There was just a general notion that beer is to get you high. But now, more and more younger consumers are demanding it more for the taste of it and want a better product for a better experience of drinking it with friends,” said Bhatia. While in his first year of graduation, Bhatia applied for a license and finally got one when he came back in 2012. His first choice of land was in Durg, but he had to face resistance from locals who had a social taboo against brewing beer. Finally, he set up a brewery in Durg’s industrial area. It took them 1.5 years to set up the brewery and even after that, they didn’t know how to make the right kind of beer. “We tied up with SAB Miller for contract manufacturing of their beers. For two years, we only did their production to ensure we learn how to make a beer making facility efficient and also get the quality consistency right,” said Bhatia. In May 2016, they launched the Simba Strong in Chhattisgarh and also focused on making the packaging strong enough to generate brand recall. “In 2017, we doubled our capacity. In 2018 we ended the contract with SAB Miller and started making Simba alone,” he said. Today, the capacity of the Durg brewery is 86.4 million bottles a year.

A 27-year old has his own beer brand that is earning ₹125 crore just in its third year

<ul class="summary-list"><li>One of <keyword id="41939" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Disneyland">Disneyland</keyword> Resort's two <keyword id="720505" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="theme-parks">theme parks</keyword> in California will partially open to the public on November 19.</li><li>Attractions will not be open. Theme parks are still closed in California.</li><li>Rather, <keyword id="745727" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Disney-Parks">Disney Parks</keyword> is extending its Downtown <keyword id="46161" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Disney">Disney</keyword> shopping and dining district into part of Disney California Adventure.</li><li>Guests will be charged $10 for parking to go to Downtown Disney starting November 19.</li></ul>After <a href="https://www.insider.com/disney-world-and-disneyland-resorts-closed-2020-3">closing in March</a>, one of <a href="http://insider.com/category/disneyland">Disneyland</a> Resort's theme parks is partially reopening to the public later this month. Just don't expect any of the main attractions to be open.Thursday, Disney Parks announced it will open part of Disney California Adventure (DCA) on November 19 to the public as part of an expansion to its current Downtown Disney experience in Anaheim, California. Disneyland Resort's shopping district reopened earlier this summer in July while the two theme parks, California Adventure and Disneyland, remain closed pending California state and local government approvals to reopen.What does that mean and what can you expect? Insider has visited the Downtown Disney area twice in anticipation of the partial DCA reopening. Here's everything you should know about Disneyland Resort's Downtown Disney expansion. <h2>What part of the park will be open? Buena Vista Street.</h2><div type="image" title="downtown disneyland buena vista street" height="1375" width="2000" msid="79092543" hostid="261"></div>In October, Disney Parks announced it will extend the shopping experience into the main street area of DCA. For those who aren't familiar, Buena Vista Street extends from DCA's main gate and veers down the park to the left-hand side.The boulevard is decorated with stores and several eateries meant to reflect the Los Angeles neighborhood where Walt Disney lived when he first arrived in Southern California in 1923. For the Downtown Disney expansion, Buena Vista Street will expand into part of DCA's Grizzly Peak land to access Smokejumper's Grill.Here's how that looks on the Disneyland app:<div type="image" title="buena vista street downtown disney disneyland" height="600" width="854" msid="79092545" hostid="261"></div><h2>You will not be entering DCA through its main gates. </h2><div type="image" title="disney california adventure gate" height="1500" width="2000" msid="79092546" hostid="261"></div>Because the theme park is not officially open, guests will not be entering DCA through its usual entrance. A Disneyland Resort representative confirmed to Insider that guests will be entering the park through a separate gate closer to Downtown Disney. Upon our two recent visits to Downtown Disney in November it was not immediately clear where guests will enter the park. <div type="image" title="downtown disney disneyland buena vista street trolley.JPG" height="1875" width="2500" msid="79092547" hostid="261"></div>Guests are currently allowed to enter a different enclosed portion of DCA called Stage 17. The giant warehouse was transformed into a pop-up holiday store called the Disneyland Resort Backlot Premiere Shop with sweaters, holiday collectibles, exclusive pins, masks, and attraction merch for The Jungle Cruise and Guardians of the Galaxy – Mission: Breakout!<div type="image" title="disneyland backlot store downtown disney" height="2700" width="1200" msid="79092548" hostid="261"></div><h2>What will be available in Disney's California Adventure? More dining options and some exclusive park items.</h2>During a recent visit to Downtown Disney, a cast member told Insider there will be some exclusive merchandise that is typically only available in the parks. Retail stores that will be open include Elias &amp; Company, Julius Katz &amp; Sons, Kingswell Camera Shop, and Trolley Treats.<div type="image" title="elias and company downtown disney disneyland" height="853" width="1280" msid="79092550" hostid="261"></div>Guests will also be able to visit a few dining experiences. Here's what they'll offer:<ul><li>Fiddler, Fifer &amp; Practical Cafe will offer hot chocolate and cranberry orange scones.</li><li>Award Weiners will have soft drinks and hot dogs.</li><li>Carthay Circle Restaurant will be transformed into an outdoor dining experience called Carthay Circle Lounge — Alfresco Dining, which will offer Mediterranean-California food. Wine, craft beers, and cocktails will also be available.</li><li>Smokejumpers Grill will have bacon cheeseburgers, chicken tenders, onion rings, waffle fries, kids' meals, and vanilla and chocolate shakes a little farther down in Grizzly Peak land.</li></ul>It's worth mentioning that Disney may use a mobile wait list system to manage the number of guests shopping when a location or queue is at capacity. <h2>Will I have to pay to access this new expanded area? At this time, you'll only need to pay for parking.</h2><div type="image" title="disneyland downtown disney parking lot.JPG" height="1500" width="2000" msid="79092551" hostid="261"></div>Up until now, Downtown Disney visitors have been able to park free in the Simba parking lot, right off of Interstate 5. It is currently the only Disney parking lot open to the public.Typically, that parking lot is a bit pricey. During normal operations, it's either $14/hour or $56/day to park in the lot which gives visitors some of the easiest access to the parks, Downtown Disney, and the Disneyland Hotel.Starting November 19, guests will be asked to pay $10 to park in the lot.Insider confirmed with a Disneyland Resort representative visitors will not need to pay extra in order to step inside the Downtown Disney expansion at DCA at this time. Insider was told it is possible there may be a charge in the future to enter DCA, but for now, it will remain available to the public at no extra cost.<h2>What you should know before you go: Masks, temperature checks, and when you should arrive.</h2><div type="image" title="disneyland temperature screening signs" height="1875" width="2500" msid="79092552" hostid="261"></div>If you're used to getting up really early to get to Disneyland to try and get on the new "Star Wars" attraction, you can rest easy knowing you can sleep in a little. Unlike the theme parks, the Downtown Disney district opens up at 10 a.m. local time each morning. Even if you arrive at the park early, Disneyland Resort will not open its parking lot until some time between 9:15 a.m. and 9:30 a.m local time. (We know because we arrived way too early on our first attempt and wound up circling Disneyland Drive quite a few times. <a href="https://i.insider.com/5fa5cd03f7d1cb0019e3a5b7">Don't do that</a>.)<div type="image" title="disneyland downtown disney car line.JPG" height="1403" width="2000" msid="79092553" hostid="261"></div>During our recent visits, we waited in a little bit of a line to get into the parking lot during the 9 a.m. hour on a Sunday. We had no wait to get in on a weekday, though the parking lot was already filling up by the time we parked at 10:15 a.m. local time.Once you're parked, you'll go through three short checkpoints that require a quick temperature scan, walking past a trained K-9, and then a bag check (if you have one). We quickly moved through all three of these without any wait both times we visited. From our experience, cast members did a good job of ensuring a group of people was never in any one section crowded together at once.<div type="image" title="downtown disney entrance" height="2700" width="1200" msid="79092555" hostid="261"></div>We recommend heading to the area early. During both our visits, we never stayed past noon as it started to get a bit busier. If you go as soon as the shopping district opens, you'll be able to step right into World of Disney, the area's most popular and largest Disney store which often has a queue wrapping around the building and down another portion of Downtown Disney. <div type="image" title="disneyland world of disney store downtown disney.JPG" height="1500" width="2000" msid="79092556" hostid="261"></div>If you're planning on heading to Downtown Disney on November 19, we recommend getting there early and heading into the DCA expansion first. And, of course, don't forget your mask.

Disneyland Resort is opening up a portion of one of its theme parks to visitors starting November 19 for shopping and dining only. Here's what to know.

<div type="image" title="capitol siege trump supporter" height="1613" width="2150" msid="80178645" hostid="261"></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>America sees a "turning" every 20 years as one generation displaces another, and the dynamic between one particular generation entering "elderhood" and another entering "young adulthood" creates a crisis every 80 years, according to a theory prophesied in Neil Howe and William Strauss' "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy-Rendezvous/dp/0767900464">The Fourth Turning</a>." </li><li>The authors wrote that the next crisis-era would start around 2005 and "climax" around 2020, and would involve <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-great-recession-student-debt-affordability-crisis-2020-1">millennials</a> and <keyword id="98642" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Boomers">boomers</keyword> fighting over the shape of the world to come.</li><li>There are some similarities between recent events and the book's predictions: The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/millennial-generation-gap-great-recession-financial-crisis-money-habits-2019-3">2008 financial crisis</a> can be seen as the catalyst they mentioned, and in 2020 and early 2021, unrest has shaken the economy, <keyword id="6358883" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="politics">politics</keyword>, and the economy.</li><li>It's unclear whether the fourth turning as Howe and Strauss characterized it really is happening right now — but the parallels are certainly eye-catching.</li></ul>A great crisis in 2008, followed by an even greater one in 2020, as an "authoritarian, severe, unyielding" leader from the baby boomer generation resists a historic moment of change afoot in the US.Would you believe this was all predicted almost 25 years ago? In a book championed at the highest levels of the Trump administration, no less? Oh, and it was also written by the guys who invented the term "millennial."It was all predicted in 1997 in Neil Howe and William Strauss' "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy-Rendezvous/dp/0767900464">The Fourth Turning</a>," and, depending on who you ask, it was either a breakthrough in "generational theory," a strange work of pseudo-science, or both.In the book, Neil and Strauss - who cowrote several books on generational theory, following careers in Washington DC-area consulting circles - argue that history moves in 80-year cycles that stretch back thousands of years to the ancient Greeks. Why 80 years? Because each cycle roughly corresponds to the length of one long human life, what the Etruscans ritualized and the Romans called a "saeculum" (from which the French got the word "siecle," for "century," and we get the word "secular"). <div type="image" title="star wars luke yoda" height="1794" width="2392" msid="76185815" hostid="261"></div>Howe and Strauss argued that each 80-year saeculum is divided into 20-year cycles, defined by each generation as it comes into adulthood. Each of the four generations that makes up a saeculum gets assigned a tarot-card identity: prophets, nomads, heroes, and artists.Howe and Strauss insist that these cycles have persisted through all of human history. They argue that they lie behind things like the monomyth championed by Joseph Campbell that hedge fund billionaire <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-book-recommendation-joseph-campbell-hero-1000-faces-2019-8">Ray Dalio swears by</a>.All mythology, folklore, even pop culture is essentially an expression of the secular cycle, they claim, as is the great psychologist <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/instant-mba-a-brand-is-a-great-story-with-mystery-magic-and-romance-2011-1">Carl Jung's</a> theory of the four archetypes underlying the "collective unconscious" and personality type indicators such as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-job-for-you-according-to-personality-type-2019-5">Myers-Briggs</a>. Famous hero-prophet mythological pairings include Luke Skywalker and Yoda; King Arthur and Merlin; Frodo and Gandalf; even Simba and Rafiki. The end of the saeculum is the 20-year period that represents the "winter" stage of the cycle. Howe and Strauss called this "the fourth turning," when the hero generation, entering young adulthood, faces off against the prophet generation that is entering elderhood.In 1997, they predicted the millennial "heroes" would face off against the baby boomer "prophets" during a crisis-era and, well, it wouldn't be pretty.<h2>A boomers vs. millennial showdown</h2>Howe and Strauss saw the climax coming around 2020 and the resolution, including a "Great Devaluation" as the economy is entirely restructured for a new set of circumstances, around 2026."History is seasonal, and winter is coming," they wrote, sounding like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/game-of-thrones-george-rr-martin-not-popular-20-years-2016-8">another book published in the late 1990s</a>, which would go on to become a major hit television series.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump" height="1219" width="1626" msid="76185817" hostid="261"></div>Warning that "a sudden spark will catalyze a crisis mood," Howe and Strauss said that "[r]emnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire." Sometime before 2025, they wrote, "America will pass through a great gate in history" and "the very survival of the nation will feel at stake." Huh. Sounds familiar.<h2>The book has attracted a bipartisan fan base</h2>The theory sounds outlandish, but the book - and its predecessor, "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Generations-History-Americas-Future-1584/dp/0688119123/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&amp;keywords=generations&amp;qid=1591103880&amp;s=books&amp;sr=1-1books&amp;sr=1-1">Generations</a>" - has resonated among conservative and liberal leaders alike.Dick Morris, a former Clinton aide and now a critic of the Democratic party, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/coronavirus-republicans-trump.html">told The New York Times</a> that "Generations" influenced Bill Clinton to select Al Gore as his vice president because they shared the same age group and political temperament. President Trump's former adviser Steve Bannon is another famous fan of the "Fourth Turning" theory. "I got mocked and ridiculed by so many people," he told The Times. "They said: 'You can't believe in this stuff. It makes you look like a kook.'" Trump was among the doubters, he added, telling him that it was too dark. Bannon believed that, for the new world order to rise, there must be a massive reckoning. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/book-steve-bannon-is-obsessed-with-the-fourth-turning-2017-2">As Insider's Linette Lopez wrote in 2017</a>, Bannon demonstrated at the time that he's willing to advise Trump to enact policies disruptive to the current order to bring about what he perceives as a necessary new one. In this sense, Lopez argued, he was trying to bring about the Fourth Turning.But the start of a new decade seems to have done that all on its own. As investment strategist Kiril Sokoloff, also a fan of the book, said in a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b8639ab6-8936-11ea-9dcb-fe6871f4145a">recent interview with The Financial Times</a>, it's "turning out to be a very prophetic book."<h2>The pandemic era of protest and unrest may be the latest fourth turning</h2>Howe and Strauss backed up their claims with some strong correlation.The last fourth turnings in American history culminated in World War II, the Civil War, and the American Revolution. Howe and Strauss note that the word "revolution" itself was borrowed from astrology, where it referred to a planet completing its orbit, or its cycle. Now, correlation isn't necessarily causation, and many historical turning points, in both American and world history, haven't corresponded to Howe and Strauss' cycle. For instance, many Americans have never forgotten where they were when they first heard the news in 2001, of the attack on the World Trade Center, or in 1963, of John F. Kennedy's assassination. Those were epoch-changing moments that don't fit into the fourth-turning paradigm.The book has also been pretty widely criticized for its <a href="https://qz.com/970646/the-world-has-already-bought-into-steve-bannons-apocalyptic-ideology/">lack of scientific support</a> and its <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/97/01/26/reviews/970126.26lindlt.html?_r=1">vague predictions</a>. And while the parallels between current world events and their predictions are eye-catching, it's unclear whether the fourth turning as Howe and Strauss characterized it is happening right now. But given the book's hold on people and decision makers in high positions, it's important to consider how the current events can be interpreted through this lens - and some of Howe and Strauss' predictions are quite eerie.<div type="image" title="Healthcare workers NYC" height="1336" width="1781" msid="76185820" hostid="261"></div>They weren't far off in marking sometime around 2005 as the start of a crisis era: The Great Recession occurred three years after their prediction, throwing the entire country into severe economic turmoil and laying the groundwork for heightening tensions between <keyword id="657946" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Millennials">millennials</keyword> and boomers.Twelve years after the financial crisis, millennials are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-great-recession-finances-coronavirus-triggers-financial-crisis-2020-4">still crippled from its effects</a> while boomers have been questioned by news outlets ranging from <a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/12/20/16772670/baby-boomers-millennials-congress-debt">Vox</a> to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/apr/29/millennials-struggling-is-it-fault-of-baby-boomers-intergenerational-fairness">The Guardian</a> for their role in bankrupting the rich economy they inherited.That brought us to 2020 and now 2021, which does share similarities with the "climax" from Strauss and Howard's telling. The <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword> pandemic <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-live-updates-latest-news">swept over the world</a>, igniting serious questions in America on the lack of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-treatment-costs-america-expensive-2020-3">affordability of the healthcare system</a>, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-florida-spring-break-problem-republican-democrat-differences-2020-3">balance of power</a> in juggling the health of both the economy and the people, and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-exposes-disparity-could-spark-class-warfare-2020-3">growing gap between the rich and the poor</a>.The pandemic has also highlighted the racial divide in America, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-are-the-george-floyd-protests-so-much-more-intense-2020-6">hitting black America harder</a> than anywhere else. In the midst of all of this, the racial tensions that have been at America's underbelly for centuries resurfaced with a vengeance following the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/protests-death-george-floyd-minneapolis-new-york-denver-2020-5">public death of George Floyd</a>, a Black man, at the knee of a Minneapolis police officer.<div type="image" title="george floyd protest" height="675" width="900" msid="76185823" hostid="261"></div><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/largest-marches-us-history-2017-1">Tens of thousands</a> marched across the country against the systemic racism and the killing of Black people in America this past summer, with some protests <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/protests-death-george-floyd-minneapolis-new-york-denver-2020-5">spiraling into chaos and deadly violence</a>.Now here's what Howe and Strauss foretold: "The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule."That's exactly what happened under the helm of Trump, Strauss and Howe's "unyielding" boomer leader who has been criticized for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-us-botched-coronavirus-pandemic-response-2020-3">botching America's response</a> to the pandemic, for calling to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/state-leaders-shun-trumps-calls-to-dominate-protests-using-military-2020-6">end the protests with military force</a>, and most recently, for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-trump-and-supporters-rally-against-certification-of-election-2021-1">encouraging an insurrection to overturn his defeat in the 2020 presidential election</a>.<div type="image" title="US Capitol Building riots" height="1665" width="2221" msid="80178646" hostid="261"></div>Rioters stormed the US Capitol Building following Trump's January 6 rally in an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/capitol-siege-module">attempted coup</a>. The violent siege <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/senate-aides-rescued-electoral-votes-before-congress-evacuated-capitol-2021-1">disrupted congressional order</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/capitol-siege-module">left four dead</a>, with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-show-the-aftermath-of-a-siege-on-capitol-building-2021-1">significant damage</a> to the Capitol building itself. Some of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-attempted-coup-federal-law-enforcement-capitol-police-2021-1">America's military allies believe</a> Trump deliberately provided aid to the pro-Trump mob, with possible support from federal-law enforcement officials.What are business leaders to make of such a potential fourth turning? For one thing, millennials attracted copious press attention for the disruption they have already brought to the 21st century economy - evidenced by memes of avocado toast and a narrative of millennials <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-killed-beer-tuna-cereal-pandemic-brings-them-back-2020-7">"killing" things like starter homes and beer</a> - but that could prove only a warmup to a complete reset in the 2020s.If the fourth turning does lead to a reset by 2026, business leaders should take note of the potential for disruption on a mass scale. Indeed, a Joe Biden presidency, boosted by at least two years of complete Democratic control of the house and senate, has the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-markets-today-us-futures-climb-despite-congress-chaos-2021-1-1029939812">potential to transform the economic landscape</a>, powered by its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-may-have-captured-the-elusive-youth-turnout-heres-why-2020-11">millennial, urban core of voters</a>.What is left to be seen is how this particular turning point will resolve, if it takes until 2026 for it to do so, and who wins the predicted millennial vs. boomer showdown.

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A book published nearly 25 years ago predicted America would hit a great crisis climaxing around 2020 - and that up next is a millennial vs. boomer standoff that will usher in a new world order

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