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<ul><li>Sensex closed 165 points higher at 73,667 while <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> was up marginally by 3 points to 22,335.</li><li>Banking stocks came under pressure, Nifty Bank shed 45 points, and BSE Bankex shed 121 points.</li><li>Most of Nifty’s mid- and small-cap indices fell over 1% during the trade. </li></ul>Indian benchmark indices closed higher on Tuesday as investors bought into large-cap stocks like HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. <keyword id="19913553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tech" source="keywords">Tech</keyword> and auto stocks also saw gains as TCS, Infosys, TechM, LTI Mindtree as well as Maruti and M&amp;M. Sensex closed 165 points higher at 73,667 while Nifty was up marginally by 3 points to 22,335. The indices opened on a much higher note after Monday’s slump but lost some of the steam during the volatile session. “Buying in select frontline stocks helped key benchmarks to end in positive territory in a volatile trading session, although markets witnessed broad-based selling, especially in realty, power and capital goods stocks. The focus is on the inflation readings to be released in the US and India, as any further moderation would improve the prospects of a rate cut by the Fed,” said <keyword id="20226500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prashanth-tapse" source="keywords">Prashanth Tapse</keyword>, senior VP of research at Mehta Equities. Banking stocks came under pressure with Nifty Bank shedding 45 points, and BSE Bankex losing 121 points. Adani Enterprises, Grasim, Cipla, Adani Ports and SBI were amongst the day’s top laggards. Stress in small and midcap stocks continued as almost all of Nifty’s mid and small-cap indices fell over 1% during the trade. Nifty Microcap 250 fell by around 2%. “Sentiments in the markets have turned bearish as Nifty broke the crucial level of 21,700. The bearishness in the mid-cap and small-cap space is even more severe. However, these corrections also offer the opportunity to accumulate good-quality stocks,” said <keyword id="20307902" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sheersham-gupta" source="keywords">Sheersham Gupta</keyword>, director and senior technical analyst at Rupeezy. Asian indices’ performance was also mixed as Japan's Nikkei shed 0.1%, Shanghai Composite index fell by 0.4%. But, Hong Kong's Hang Seng went up 3.1% and South Korea's Kospi went up by 0.8%. Globally, Dow Jones closed with a marginal gain of 0.12% on Monday as markets await inflation data to be released today. Tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 0.4% lower as top tech stocks like Facebook parent Meta dropped over 4%. “Global sentiment remained mixed as investors awaited key US inflation data, which could offer insights into the Fed's interest rate decisions. Market participants are anticipating India's inflation figures scheduled for release today, to remain consistent with the previous month, which will be at the middle of RBI's tolerance range,” said <keyword id="19969359" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vinod-nair" source="keywords">Vinod Nair</keyword>, head of research, Geojit Financial Services.

Stock markets close in the green amidst buying in heavyweights and mixed global cues

<ul><li>Threshold for e-mandates that requires two factor authentication raised from ₹15,000 to ₹1 lakh. </li><li>In the August policy update, Das has proposed introducing conversational payments on UPI. </li><li>The <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> had also raised the transaction limit of UPI Lite to ₹500 from ₹200. </li></ul>Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das announced on Friday an increase in the transaction limits for specific categories within the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). Additionally, new limits for e-mandates concerning recurring payments were also announced. Under the updated UPI transaction limit regulations, individuals can now conduct payments via UPI up to ₹5 lakh per day, previously capped at ₹1 lakh, specifically for payments to hospitals and educational institutions. “A key highlight is the adjustment in the UPI limit for transactions involving hospitals and educational institutions, raising it from ₹1 lakh to ₹5 lakh. This targeted policy measure acknowledges sector-specific financial needs, contributing to the macroeconomic resilience of critical segments. This could potentially result in increased financial transactions and ease,” says Sheersham Gupta, Director and Senior Technical Analyst at Rupeezy, a trading platform. “Education expenses usually tend to be high and very time-bound. Increasing the UPI limit for education up to ₹5L means students and parents will be able to make immediate hassle-free cash payments without needing to resort to instruments such as demand drafts,” says Adhil Shetty, CEO, BankBazaar, a financial marketplace. In the August policy update, Das has proposed introducing conversational payments on UPI, enabling users to interact with an AI-powered system for secure transaction initiation and completion. This feature will be accessible on both smartphone and feature phone-based UPI platforms, initially supporting Hindi and English, followed by additional Indian languages. The RBI had also raised the transaction limit of UPI Lite to ₹500 from ₹200. UPI Lite is accessible through various payment apps like Paytm, BHIM App, GooglePay, among others. Several banks, including Canara Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Punjab National Bank, State Bank of India, Union Bank of India, and Utkarsh Small Finance Bank, are already active on the UPI Lite platform. In November, digital transactions through the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) exceeded 11 billion for the second successive month, with the country witnessing 1.124 billion <keyword id="4052276" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="upi-transactions" source="Orion">UPI transactions</keyword>. As per data from the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), although UPI transactions dipped slightly from October's 1.141 billion, they surged by 54% compared to November 2022's 730.95 million transactions.

UPI transaction limit for education and healthcare hiked to ₹5 lakh per day

<ul><li>A repository will offer a consolidated platform for diverse <keyword id="6355729" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="data" source="Orion">data</keyword>, negating the necessity for lenders to source information from multiple channels. </li><li>Such a repository may also help in curbing fraudulent activities. </li><li><keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> also announced that it will come up with guidelines to govern <keyword id="19753861" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="web-aggregation" source="Orion">web aggregation</keyword> of <keyword id="789627" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="loan-products" source="Orion">loan products</keyword>. </li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed the establishment of a <keyword id="19753447" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fintech-repository" source="Orion">fintech repository</keyword>. “This will be operationalised by the Reserve Bank Innovation Hub in April 2024 or earlier. FinTechs would be encouraged to provide relevant information voluntarily to this Repository,” said Governor Shaktikanta Das while announcing the Monetary Policy Committee decisions on Friday. The RBI also announced that it will come up with detailed guidelines to govern web aggregation of loan products. The fintech repository holds the potential for various improvements in the . Firstly, it promises enhanced access to fintech information, offering a consolidated platform for diverse data, negating the necessity for lenders to source information from multiple channels. This streamlining of processes not only reduces operational costs but also significantly augments efficiency within the fintech ecosystem. Additionally, the repository's comprehensive compilation of an individual's fintech profile facilitates better credit risk assessment for lenders. By providing a holistic view of a borrower's financial health, it empowers lenders to make more informed credit decisions. Consequently, this informed decision-making has the potential to reduce loan defaults, thus fostering a healthier credit environment overall. “The proposed establishment of a repository by April signals a forward-looking approach, aiming to enhance the efficiency and transparency of financial systems on a macro scale,” says Sheersham Gupta, Director and Senior Technical Analyst at Rupeezy, a trading platform. Another benefit lies in the repository's ability to curb fraudulent activities. By enabling cross-institutional analysis of fintech data, it acts as a tool in identifying and preventing fraudulent transactions. This not only safeguards the interests of lenders but also bolsters trust and stability within the fintech system, benefitting both lenders and borrowers alike. One of the key aims of the repository is to bring about greater financial inclusion, particularly for marginalised communities and businesses. By offering lenders a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of an individual or entity's financial standing, it lays the groundwork for increased accessibility to credit and other fintech services, potentially bridging the gap for those underserved in the fintech domain. Lastly, the repository will provide the regulator with access to a vast dataset of financial information and will play a key role in improving regulatory oversight. Says Anand Agrawal, Co-Founder and Chief Product and Technology Officer , Credgenics, a debt collection platform, "The approach to encouraging voluntary contributions from fintechs will empower regulators with real-time insights and enable informed, agile, and risk-mitigating decision-making. This initiative is a crucial step in the RBI’s approach to streamlining the regulatory framework for fintechs.” With comprehensive insights, regulators can more effectively monitor the fintech system, identify potential risks, and implement proactive measures, contributing to a more robust, stable, and resilient fintech framework.

Fintech repository to be set up by April 2024, says Shaktikanta Das

<ul><li><keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>’s MPC keeps <keyword id="43352" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="Orion">repo rate</keyword> unchanged for the fifth time in a row.</li><li>Most economists had unanimously expected a ‘pause’ for the fifth consecutive time.</li><li>A few economists also expected the MPC to change its stance to ‘neutral’ from withdrawal of accommodation. </li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the fifth consecutive time on Friday. The central bank also revised its GDP growth projections for FY24 to 7% instead of 6.5% it had projected earlier. This is after the second quarter’s GDP however threw in a surprise by coming in at 7.6%, much higher than RBI’s forecasts of 6.5%. RBI’s real GDP growth forecast table <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Period of time </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">RBI earlier forecast </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Revised estimates </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Actual GDP growth </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.6% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NA </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q1 FY24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NA </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.8% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q2 FY24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NA </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.6% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q3 FY24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NA </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q4 FY24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5.7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NA </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>‘We don’t wait for the house to catch fire’ The MPC also decided to remain focussed on ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. This is to ensure inflation progresses along the target of 4%, said <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, governor of RBI. It has also kept FY24’s CPI inflation projections unchanged at 5.4%. Addressing the central bank’s decision to increase risk weightage on unsecured loans, the governor said it’s a pre-emptive measure to address potential risks. “We don’t wait for the house to catch fire and then act,” Das said in his speech. The central bank has to be mindful of the risk of being carried away by a few months of good data. “We have to be watchful of new shocks that can hit the economy from anywhere anytime” he said. Das also said that as the new year begins, the long awaited normalcy eludes the global economy. “In such volatile times, emerging markets have remained resilient to volatility," he said. Experts expected the ‘pause’ Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, rose 6.61% in October as compared with 6.56% in September. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also expected to come around 5.4-5.5% by March 2023, though November and December inflation could overshoot 6%. Says Mandar Pitale, head- treasury, SBM Bank India, “Overall data prints released after October MPC are supportive for MPC to continue with its current “withdrawal of accommodation” stance. The MPC is also likely to maintain the status quo on rates in the forthcoming policy announcement.” A few also expected RBI’ MPC to change its stance to ‘neutral’ from withdrawal of accommodation. However, this may not happen just yet as the governor has been insisting on bringing inflation within its target of 4%. A note by Yes Bank says that the 4% inflation target continues to elude, the only option for the RBI is to hold policy rates and keep the stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ unchanged. “Given its (RBI) worry on the personal credit space, the RBI is also unlikely to change its thoughts on tight liquidity conditions. While liquidity conditions are difficult to predict given volatility in flows, we think there ought to be more clarity on OMOs and the plans around the same,” said Yes Bank. Sheersham Gupta, director and senior technical analyst at Rupeezy said that the spread of lending rates and repo rate have also been narrowing down in the past couple of months, indicating a more direct transmission of monetary policy.

RBI expects India’s GDP to grow at 7% in FY24; keeps repo rate unchanged

<ul><li>Kotak Institutional Equities says that stocks are likely to trade at rich valuations in the near term. The reduced election ‘risk’ and growing expectations of an imminent rate-cut cycle in the US may sustain the Indian market’s rich valuations.</li><li>Japanese investment bank Nomura said that the results of the state elections in India have calmed fears of fiscal populism, but competitive populism is expected to remain a dominant theme for the 2024 general elections.</li><li>Nifty to outperform other major indices over the next year as mega caps have underperformed the broader markets. </li></ul>After sounding caution on the market’s irrational exuberance several times in the last one year, Kotak Institutional Equities has decided not to be a wet blanket. Now Kotak Institutional Securities writes a whole report saying ‘There’s No Stopping This Party’. The market now has clarity that there is no political risk and continuity of policy is also a given. According to Nomura, BJP’s state election wins should allay market concerns over political risks. In its Market Outlook report for 2024, Morgan Stanley had predicted some volatility due to political risks, but the BJP’s decisive win in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan now indicates that the BJP is set to return to power at the Centre too in 2024. According to Kotak Institutional Equities, the market is likely to trade at rich valuations in the near term. The reduced election ‘risk’ and growing expectations of an imminent rate-cut cycle in the US may sustain the Indian market’s rich valuations. The domestic research house says that mega-caps have underperformed other large-caps, mid-caps and small-caps but this may change now. KIE expects the net profits of the Nifty-50 Index to grow 18% in FY2024 and 11% in FY2025. IIFL Securities too says that the results are a positive surprise for markets. Strategists at IIFL say that the outcome of Assembly elections will be a positive surprise for the markets, with most surveys earlier predicting a tougher battle between the BJP and the Congress. “We consider these results positive for GDP growth too. Our Nifty EPS CAGR for FY24-26 is 12%. We expect Nifty to outperform other major indices over the next year. Our top large-cap picks include IndusInd Bank, SBI Life, Sun Pharma, Info Edge and BEL. Our top mid-cap and small-cap picks include Cummins, JB Chemicals, CMS Info and Ashoka Buildcon. Our top sells include Kotak Bank, TechM, Divis, Delhivery, Page and Dr Reddy’s.” The exuberant mood might stay on, expect analysts, who foresee an across-the-board rally. However, a few believe that the market has already partly discounted a BJP victory with a 500-point rally during the last four sessions. “But the mood is so exuberant that the rally will continue. A restraining factor will be the valuations which are high and will get stretched further with the rally gaining momentum. In the near-term the market will ignore fundamentals and move up but soon high valuations will trigger some selling," said Dr V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services. A few analysts also believe that the mood might stay on until the run-up to the general elections of 2024. “Nifty can see the level of 22,000 in the next four to five months. However, since Nifty has already rallied about 1,700 in the past one-and-a-half months, occasional <keyword id="47904" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="profit-booking" source="Orion">profit booking</keyword> cannot be ruled out,” said Sheersham Gupta, director and senior technical analyst at Rupeezy. ‘Calmed the fears of fiscal populism’ Japanese investment bank Nomura said that the results of the state elections in India have calmed fears of fiscal populism, but competitive populism is expected to remain a dominant theme for the 2024 general elections. The report states that while state election results are not always indicative of general election outcomes, investors are likely to view these developments positively, anticipating reduced policy and political risks leading up to 2024. The report also highlights the BJP's strategy of campaigning under the brand of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, without naming any Chief Ministerial candidate. This approach, which did not yield results in the Karnataka elections, proved successful in the Hindi heartland states. The popularity of state-level leaders, particularly Madhya Pradesh's incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, also played a significant role in the BJP's wins. Competitive populism has been a dominant theme in state elections, not only for the INC but also for the BJP. Both parties have made populist promises, particularly focusing on schemes supporting women and girls. While investors were initially concerned that a poor showing by the BJP in state elections would increase the risk of more fiscal populism, the actual results have alleviated such fears. However, Nomura suggests that a BJP victory across most states does not necessarily reduce the likelihood of competitive populism recurring as a dominant theme in the 2024 general elections.

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Stock markets close in the green amidst buying in heavyweights and mixed global cues

BI India Bureau

UPI transaction limit for education and healthcare hiked to ₹5 lakh per day

Anagh Pal

Fintech repository to be set up by April 2024, says Shaktikanta Das

Anagh Pal

RBI expects India’s GDP to grow at 7% in FY24; keeps repo rate unchanged

BI India Bureau

No stopping the election party with occasional profit-booking say analysts

Katya

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