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<ul class="summary-list"><li>European stocks are pricing in a Trump win, Barclays said.</li><li>Exporters have underperformed the broader European market by 15% since spring.</li></ul>With the US election less than two weeks away, European stocks have already been pricing in a Donald Trump victory, according to Barclays.The firm noted that a basket of European exporters — or those companies most vulnerable to tariffs — has underperformed the benchmark European Stoxx 600 by 15% since early spring.Barclays says this is reflective of investors preemptively bracing for Trump's tariff policy, which has been a cornerstone of his presidential-election platform, under the expectation he will win.<div type="image" title="Barclays chart showing how stocks exposed to tariffs have underperformed the broader index" height="1670" width="2136" msid="114514786" hostid="261" sizebytes="87238"></div>"Tariff concerns have been a drag on EU equities' relative performance year-to-date," Barclays analysts led by Emmanuel Cau wrote on Wednesday. "In the event of a full-blown trade war, we could see up to a high single-digit drag on EPS growth with Germany, Italy, Cap Goods, Autos, Beverages, Tech, Chemicals most at risk."Barclays did note that some European firms have relocated production to the US since 2018, which could somewhat limit the impact of Trump's trade policy on the whole market. But it's still worried about the possible side effects."The second-order impact through lower growth and higher inflation (i.e. stagflation) could be more severe, in particular in the case of retaliation and a trade war," Barclays wrote.The US will also feel the impact. The firm forecasts Trump tariffs will be a 3.2% drag on S&amp;P 500 earnings-per-share next year, with the most negative impact affecting materials, discretionary, industrials, technology, and healthcare. Beyond that, retaliatory measures would generate an additional 1.5% hit to forward EPS.The note suggested a possible rebound for Europe's markets if Kamala Harris wins. Her policy would also boost clean and renewables in the region, which have also underperformed on the chances of a Trump win.

One global market is already pricing in a Trump victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Dow closed above 44,000 and the S&amp;P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time on Monday.</li><li>Bitcoin soared 8% to hit a record high as crypto's post-election rally continued. </li></ul>US stocks were higher on Monday, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> jumping about 300 points while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> edged slightly higher.The Dow closed above the 44,000 level for the first time ever, while the S&amp;P 500 hit a record intra-day high and closed above the 6,000 level for the first time.The Trump trade was largely extended on Monday, with shares of Tesla, bitcoin, the US dollar, and shares of US banks all surging.Bitcoin jumped 8% to hit a record high of $87,478. Crypto investors continued to celebrate Trump's win, which the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-crypto-industry-donald-trump-election-reserve-regulation-sec-2024-11">market expects to be a positive</a> catalyst amid the President-Elect's promises of policies aimed at boosting the sector. Meanwhile, tech shares mostly slumped, with shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a>, the world's three largest companies, all down about 1%.Investors' top concern this week is inflation data, with consumer price index data for the month of October set to be released Wednesday morning.Economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year jump in CPI, compared to a rise of 2.4% in the prior month."While economic fundamentals suggest inflation should continue to moderate, policy changes pose an upside risk to the outlook. Nevertheless, we think the October CPI report will be good enough for the Fed to follow through with a 25bp cut in December," Bank of America said on Monday.In addition to inflation data, corporate earnings remain on investors' radars, though they are starting to wind down.So far, 91% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results. Of those companies, 77% beat profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 59% beat revenue estimates by a median of 6%, according to data from Fundstrat.Nvidia is the last big company that will report earnings. The chip giant is scheduled to report its third-quarter results after the market close on November 20.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 6,001.35, up 0.10%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 44,293.13, up 0.69% (+304.14 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,298.76, up 0.06% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-short-sellers-losss-donald-trump-election-tsla-elon-musk-2024-11">Tesla short-sellers have lost $8 billion since Donald Trump's election win, according to S3 Partners.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-policies-tax-cuts-inflation-government-debt-deficit-jeremy-siegel-2024-11">President-elect Trump could dial back some of his proposed policies in a bid to not upset the stock market, Jeremy Siegel said.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">Economists say Trump could give Americans the very thing they voted against.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-reaches-80000-for-first-time-trump-election-crypto-2024-11">Bitcoin surged past the $80,000 price level over the weekend and hit a high of $82,500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-saving-inflation-cost-of-living-crisis-investing-401k-pensions-2024-11">Americans' cost-of-living anxiety is creating a population of oversavers.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 3.13% to $68.18 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 2.59% to $71.96 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> dropped 2.41% to $2,629.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged as the bond market was closed in observance of Veterans Day.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> surged 8.37% to $87,160.69.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow closes above 44,000, tech shares stumble as traders eye inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks raced to record highs after the 2024 presidential election concluded.</li><li>Investors seem certain that President-elect Donald Trump's policies are best for stocks.</li></ul>Wall Street is in love with Donald Trump, as if there was ever any doubt.A robust, multi-year bull market rally for US stocks reached another gear after the businessman-turned-politician <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">won the presidential election</a>. The S&amp;P 500 just topped 6,000 for the first time ever, and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is also in uncharted territory.Traders are convinced that the bulk of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">Trump's economic policies</a>, which include tax cuts and fewer government regulations, will create a business-friendly backdrop that drives stocks higher."Investor sentiment is pro-growth, pro-deregulation, and pro-markets," said David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group, in recent commentary sent to Business Insider.<h2 id="3e5bdf8a-fc97-4e3d-a950-f23703f0015e">'Animal spirits' have been unleashed</h2>While some are skeptical of the consensus view, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-trump-president-economy-tariffs-trade-war-kelly-2024-11">including those who are terrified about tariffs</a>, it looks as if investors broadly are scrambling to add exposure to equities. A staggering $22 billion flowed into exchange-traded funds on Wednesday, which was more than four times higher than the previous record for the day after the US election, according to State Street Global Advisors.Markets may hate uncertainty even more than tax hikes, so it's possible that a Kamala Harris win also could have sparked a relief rally.But that might dismiss how ecstatic big-money investors are about another Trump term, given that the S&amp;P 500 rose over 50% from his victory in 2016 until shortly before the pandemic."Business animal spirits could be rekindled once again from Trump's pro-business approach, which could lead to a more robust capital expenditures and investment environment," said Jeff Schulze, the head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, in commentary.That term, "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/animal-spirits.asp">animal spirits,</a>" was coined in the 1930s by famed economist John Maynard Keynes, who remarked that investors' decisions are often driven by intense emotions like greed and fear.Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise's chief market strategist, borrowed Keynes' famous phrase to make the same point as Schulze: investors may be euphoric for the foreseeable future."Animal spirits through year-end could push major averages higher as the overhang of the election is removed and investors look to put excess cash to work in stocks," Saglimbene said in commentary.<h2 id="648d2368-71e0-40ed-9ed5-95b7faf9578c">How to invest after Trump's win</h2>Although the US economy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-tariffs-trump-trade-war-slowdown-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-10">looks healthy by most measures</a>, many market strategists are counting on an even bigger boom under Trump that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-election-investing-strategy-2016-comparison-morgan-stanley-2024-11">would benefit economically sensitive stocks</a>."This broad 'risk-on' mood for the U.S. stock market is cutting across all sectors, but particularly favoring more cyclically sensitive sectors that would benefit from a re-strengthening of the economy and tailwinds to corporate profitability," said Jim Baird, the chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in written commentary sent to BI.Sectors that are heavily reliant on economic growth, like energy and financials, will stay hot, said Sébastien Page, the head of global multi-asset at T. Rowe Price, in a recent interview."I don't think it's over the top," Page said of the postelection market rally.Several of the strategists and investment chiefs that Business Insider leaned on for this story also cited small caps as a top idea, provided that the economy stays strong and taxes fall."Enough people had been worried about, 'Could we have a credit cycle? Could we have an economic slowdown into next year? What would increases in taxes and regulation do?'" said Sean Gallagher, the global head of Lazard's small-cap equity platform, in an interview.He continued: "Now that's off the table. I think it just increases small-business optimism. I think it'll increase <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalexpenditure.asp">CapEx</a>, which has been kind of held back."Smaller companies performed admirably early on in Trump's first tenure, though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-strong-growth-market-outlook-garp-bmo-2024-10">they've lagged large caps for years</a>. Gallagher is highly optimistic about the group again, both because of the economic environment and their valuations, which are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-small-mid-caps-market-rotation-outlook-bmo-2024-10">startlingly cheap relative to their peers</a>.Schulze from ClearBridge is also aboard the cyclical and small caps train. The strategist is fired up about what Trump's penchant for lower taxes and limited regulations means for industrials, consumer discretionary stocks, and financials.Saglimbene from Ameriprise concurred again that "the backdrop for financials could improve, as less regulation and the potential for merger/acquisition and capital market activity accelerate."Add the technology sector to the list of winners from less governmental oversight, Bahnsen said. Tech companies seem like a clearer beneficiary since the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) should be less hostile to their interests.For all the optimism in markets, some strategists are branching out from stocks.Jim Thorne, who's the chief market strategist at Canada-based wealth management firm Wellington-Altus, said in commentary that he's most interested in gold and bitcoin, which some have referred to as the yellow metal's digital doppelgänger.The world is awash with cash, making scarce assets like gold and bitcoin more valuable, and Thorne also noted that global economic growth is slowing. That suggests that the path forward for risk assets may not be smooth — even if Trump is successful in his second term."Investors should brace for volatility and shifts in market leadership as we transition to a peacetime economy, shaped by Trump's policies," Thorne said in written commentary.

'Animal spirits': 7 market strategists share how to ride the red wave as US stocks surge to new records

<ul class="summary-list"><li>As fears over economic volatility and deficits grow, investors and central banks are buying gold.</li><li>Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset among investors.</li></ul>Now is looking like a golden opportunity to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/how-to-invest-in-gold">invest in gold</a>.For decades, the yellow metal has been considered a safe-haven asset, serving as a hedge against high inflation and economic uncertainty due to its low correlation to stocks and bonds.And there's certainly no shortage of economic uncertainty right now. The US presidential election is right around the corner, inflation concerns remain elevated, geopolitical tensions are high, and the US national debt is reaching untenable levels.Investors and central banks alike have been snatching up gold. The asset's price hit another record high earlier this week at $2,739.40 per ounce after rising over 30% this year, and some analysts are setting a price target of $3,000.Investing in gold is slightly different from putting money into stocks or bonds. Below, two gold experts share four ways investors can add gold to their portfolios.<h2 id="f6498d65-9f43-415b-a374-53643e6db3e3">4 ways to invest in gold</h2>For starters, investors can purchase the metal directly.You can buy gold coins online. You can buy gold bars at Costco. Those strip mall stores with a big "We Buy Gold" sign? You can buy gold there, too.Buying the physical commodity is a tangible way to invest in gold, but it does have some drawbacks. Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp &amp; Company, points out that there are transaction costs when buying directly from a gold dealer. The investor also has to ensure the gold is certified regarding purity and weight. Buyers must also consider secure storage solutions and insurance for their physical assets.In general, physical gold is a less liquid way to own the asset and is quite costly. "Most of the time when people go and buy gold coins, they'll pay a big premium upfront, and they'll probably suffer a discount when they come to sell at the end," George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said.Investors can avoid the complications of investing in bars and coins by buying a gold ETF instead.Physical gold ETFs can be bought through a brokerage account and are directly backed by gold bullion held in bank vaults, meaning that investors don't have to worry about storage or liquidity issues. Examples include the iShares Gold Trust fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-gold-trust-us4642852044?miRedirects=1">IAU</a>) and the SPDR Gold Shares fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-us78463v1070?miRedirects=1">GLD</a>).Synthetic gold ETFs don't hold physical gold, investing instead in gold derivatives such as futures and options. These ETFs can be cheaper than physically backed ones since they don't need to store the metal, but they have counterparty risk, or the risk of loss from a contract participant not fulfilling their obligation. Examples include the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-gold-minishares-us98149e3036?miRedirects=1">GLDM</a>) and the ProShares Ultra Gold fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/proshares-ultra-gold-us74347w6012?miRedirects=2">UGL</a>).For investors who want to get as close to the real thing without buying bars, physical gold ETFs tend to track changes in the price of gold more accurately than synthetic ones, Muhlenkamp said.Mining companies are another option for more indirect exposure. These can vary wildly in risk, so Milling-Stanley advises that investors approach these stocks with discretion. The multi-billion-dollar market-cap mining companies offer the most liquidity and stable business models. Smaller mining companies, known as junior miners, are in the exploration phase of looking for mineral deposits and might not be generating revenues, Muhlenkamp said.Mining stocks are less directly correlated with the price of gold than ETFs and may lag trends in gold prices by several months, Muhlenkamp said.In Milling-Stanley's opinion, investing in mining stocks instead of directly investing in gold erodes some of the metal's portfolio protection, as mining stocks behave more in line with the general equity market.This area of investment is definitely higher in risk, but if enthusiasm for gold continues to surge, more speculative mining stocks will enjoy the biggest upside, according to Muhlenkamp.Examples of mining stocks include Agnico-Eagle Mines (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aem-stock">AEM</a>) and Newmont Mining Corp (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nem-stock">NEM</a>).Gold royalty and streaming companies are yet another way to add gold to a portfolio. These companies finance gold mines and receive a percentage of the gold produced.Royalties limit the holder's exposure to the risks associated with directly investing in mines, such as exploration, development, and regulatory compliance. Royalty and streaming companies are a good way to gain exposure to junior mines but still retain liquidity, especially for investors who don't have the ability or resources to conduct due diligence, Muhlenkamp said.Examples of gold royalty companies include Franco-Nevada (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/fnv-stock">FNV</a>) and Wheaton Precious Metals (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wpm-stock">WPM</a>).

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One global market is already pricing in a Trump victory

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Stock market today: Dow closes above 44,000, tech shares stumble as traders eye inflation data

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'Animal spirits': 7 market strategists share how to ride the red wave as US stocks surge to new records

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4 ways to add gold to your portfolio as investors pile in and send prices to record highs

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