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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bank of America says a jump in mentions of "bottom" in earnings calls is a positive sign.</li><li>Mentions of "weak demand" also fell to a two-year low. </li></ul>Executives have been dropping hints in third-quarter earnings calls that suggest corporate profits will surge in 2025, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bac-stock">Bank of America.</a>Strategist Savita Subramanian highlighted in a Monday note that with more than one-third of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> companies having reported results, mentions of the word "bottom" on earnings calls have surged."Companies have been operating in a weak demand environment for almost two years now due to the weakness in goods/manufacturing. But we see signs that the worst may be behind us," Subramanian said. Bank of America scanned the transcripts of third-quarter earnings calls and observed a 56% year-over-year increase in the word "bottom" being mentioned.On top of that, mentions of "weak demand" have dropped to two-year lows, a good sign for cyclical companies in the manufacturing economy."Historically, a jump in 'bottom' mentions has often marked an inflection in EPS," Subramanian said.Notable surges in the word "bottom" being mentioned on earnings calls in 2009 and 2020 were soon after marked by a more than 75% year-over-year surge in S&amp;P 500 quarterly earnings per share, according to the note.<div type="image" title="chart of S&amp;P 500 earnings" height="537" width="1207" msid="114741554" hostid="261" sizebytes="53224"></div>These signals suggest to Subramanian that manufacturing activity will pick up in the first half of next year as the Fed is likely to continue lowering interest rates and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">uncertainty about the Presidential election passes.</a>Subramanian said that the word "election" being mentioned on earnings calls has soared 62% compared to the 2020 election cycle, suggesting "a potential 'wait-and-see' investment approach given the uncertainty.""Interestingly, history suggests that investment activity typically accelerates post-election. We believe the election could be a clearing event for companies to unleash capex, especially with lower rates," Subramanian said.

A hint in 3rd-quarter earnings calls suggests S&P 500 corporate profits are about to boom, Bank of America says

<div type="image" title="Data from RBI suggests that the outstanding amount on gold loans has swelled from Rs 85,009 crore in September 2022 to Rs 1,47,081 crore in September 2024." msid="115250619" hostid="261" sizebytes="118350" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Data from RBI suggests that the outstanding amount on gold loans has swelled from Rs 85,009 crore in September 2022 to Rs 1,47,081 crore in September 2024.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “Ye le beta, humare khaandani sone ke gehne. Ise girvi rakhva de, shayad kuch paise aa jaye ghar main.” How many times have we seen similar dialogues repeat itself in Bollywood films of the 70s and 80s—abject poverty and a frail-looking old mother pleading to her son to pawn the family’s heirloom <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword> ornaments to a jeweller, all to get a few bucks? Well, if you’d ask that son in 2024, he’d rather hit the loan button on his <keyword id="19977340" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="demat" source="keywords">Demat</keyword> account than pawn his mother’s gold jewellery. Given how Indians are rapidly resorting to taking loans against their investments in shares and mutual funds, these might as well be a cherished family heirloom in today’s time. Fair warning though; it's not as if gold and loans against it are going down in India’s lending scene. It's very much the opposite, shining brighter than ever! The secured loan category is having its time in the spotlight, and people are certainly looking beyond land and property to get their hands on some extra monies! But what is funding the steep rise behind these loans? And are they as failsafe and secure as they’re made out to be? We decode for you in this week’s Simply Put. <h2>The great Indian pawning party</h2>Pawning one’s gold has been, by far, the OG Indian financial move to get a loan. That continues well into 2024, and apparently, more so when India decides to wed and celebrate! Data from <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> suggests that the outstanding amount on gold loans has swelled from Rs 85,009 crore in September 2022 to Rs 1,47,081 crore in September 2024. It looks like Gold took the motto of rise and shine too seriously! Table 1: Growth in gold loans <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Year </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Amount (In Rs crore) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">September 2022 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">85,009 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">March 2023 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">89,370 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">September 2023 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">97,426 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">March 2024 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,02,562 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">September 2024 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,47,081 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> Source: RBI data While the world continues to be riled up in multiple geopolitical crises in 2024, gold has been making merry of these tough times. Thus far this year, domestic gold prices have grown by 23%, outperforming benchmark indices like Nifty and Sensex by a mile, which have gone up by 9.85% and 8.86%, respectively. The growth in gold loan disbursal rates month on month this year could also put Nifty and Sensex’s growth to shame. In just September 2024, gold loans grew an astounding 51%, up from 40.9% in August, 30.5% in June, and just 14.8% in March. <h2>Hey, wait up for me, says <keyword id="23953567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="las" source="keywords">LAS</keyword></h2>In lockstep with the elder, gold loan sibling, advances against shares and bonds have also been inching up since 2022. Data from RBI (Reserve Bank of India) notes that as of September 2022, the outstanding quantum of loans that were taken against shares (LAS) and bonds stood at Rs 7,397.94 crores. This inched up to Rs 7,764 crore in September 2023. Come 2024, and it looked like this was LAS’ time to shine. Loans swiftly skyrocketed, with outstanding loans in this category going up from Rs 8,492 crore in March 2022 to a staggering Rs 9,546 crore at the end of September 2024. Naturally, the smoke of LAS has its fire in the record inflows that Indians are pouring into the stock market and mutual funds month on month. Per AMFI (<keyword id="20090034" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="association-of-mutual-funds" source="keywords">Association of Mutual Funds</keyword> in India), the net AUM (assets under management) of India’s mutual fund industry grew to Rs 67,25,614.61 crores in October 2024, up from Rs 67,09,259.24 crores in September 2024. Even the number of retail mutual fund folios, which include equity, hybrid, and solution-oriented mutual funds, burgeoned to 17,23,52,296 in October, as compared to 16,81,61,366 in September. The same goes for stock investments in India, where the number of new demat accounts that are added every month just simply refuses to climb down. As of last month, total demat accounts in the country stood at 17.9 crore, which is more than the entire population of full-fledged nations like Japan (12.45 crore), Russia (14.38 crore), and Bangladesh (17.3 crore). In fact, since February this year, the monthly growth of LAS has been hitting double digits. From 11.3% in March to 21.6% in May to 26.8% in August, growth in LAS has been exceptional, hitting 22.9% in September this year. For context, monthly growth in the LAS segment was at a mere 5% in September 2023. <h2>What's driving the growth?</h2>It's a win-win for both the bank and the customer. Customers love them because LAS is available at a lower interest rate compared to unsecured personal loans. You can get a loan at an interest rate of anywhere between 9 and 12% by pledging your gold, MF units, or shares. Compare this to over 10-28% rates, which is the range where unsecured personal loans charge interest. Banks love <keyword id="827883" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="secured-loans" source="Orion">secured loans</keyword> since they are well-secured. In case you default on paying back, the bank can sell off your gold, shares, or mutual fund units to recover the amount. This takes a lot of stress off the banks, which are already dealing with secured loans’ riskier sibling-unsecured lending. High NPAs (non-performing assets) and non-payments in the unsecured borrowing space have already put RBI on red alert, which is why the apex bank is tightening the screws on unsecured lending, which was well on its way to becoming a ticking time bomb. As a result, credit growth has moderated to 12.8% YoY in October, as against the 19.3% rise recorded in the year-ago period. Yet it's not like the banks won't feel the heat. Analysts at Nomura note that personal loan delinquencies in India that have been overdue by over 90 days rose to 5.1% in the last financial year, as opposed to just 3.9% in the year prior. <h2>How does it work?</h2>Both these loans work on a similar principle: Your loan amount is equal to a certain percentage of the actual market value of your asset. This is known as the <keyword id="20051485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ltv" source="keywords">LTV</keyword> (loan-to-value ratio). In the case of gold and debt mutual funds, RBI mandates that this LTV be about 75-80%. So, for every Rs 100 of gold or debt mutual fund unit you pledge, your maximum loan amount cannot exceed Rs 80. If you pledge gold, which has a market value of Rs 10 lakh, you can take a loan of up to Rs 8,00,000. In the case of shares and mutual fund units, this limit is set at 50%. So, your shares worth Rs 5,00,000 can only get you a loan worth Rs 2,50,000. But the bright side? You can continue earning returns on your investments and pay interest only on the amount you use, since this loan works as an overdraft facility. <h2>Super safe, you say?</h2>Interest rates on both of these loans are very much dependent on the market value of the asset, which wildly fluctuates on a day-to-day basis. So, in case the value of your asset falls, you’ll have to keep a margin or more of the same asset in order to continue with the loan and maintain the LTV balance. Failure to do so could mean the bank can even sell off your asset. Says financial planner Nema Chaya Buch. “Yes, LAS offers easy availability of funds since these loans come with a lower interest rate as compared to personal loans. Also, you continue to earn average returns of 10–13% on your equity investments. But the downside is, in case of emergency, those pledged securities cannot be sold. Also, if the equity market goes down, then the bank may ask for additional collateral. Raghvendra Nath, MD, Ladderup Wealth Management notes that taking a LAS is best when the value of your securities has appreciated significantly. “This allows you to maximize the loan amount based on your collateral while also addressing financial needs without having to liquidate your investment portfolio. However, there are notable disadvantages to consider. The market risk is significant; a substantial decline in market value could lead to margin calls, which may incur fees and charges if there are delays or prepayments, ultimately increasing the effective cost of borrowing. Furthermore, failure to make timely payments could result in the loss of your assets.”. Umesh Mohanan, ED &amp; CEO, of Indel Money, cautions that one should have a sufficient quantity of gold to get the loan amount one wants. "According to the current RBI rules, the loan applicant/borrower can draw up to 75% of the total market value of the collateral/gold jewellery. So, always carry a sufficient quantity of gold based on one’s loan requirement. “The most important thing is that the valuation of the gold depends on the purity of the gold. If the borrower pledges gold with higher purity, such as 24 carats or 22 carats, he will get the maximum loan amount," he adds.

Simply Put: Secured Loans 2.0 — why more and more Indians are turning to gold, shares and mutual funds to get loans

Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of microfinance and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, <keyword id="46717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndusInd-bank" source="Orion">IndusInd Bank</keyword> set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e., an <keyword id="79363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="npa" source="Orion">NPA</keyword>, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals, i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and Navi Finserv, from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending installments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honor any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its <keyword id="763994" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-NPA" source="Orion">gross NPA</keyword> for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. <keyword id="62152" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IDFC-bank" source="Orion">IDFC Bank</keyword>’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in unsecured loans, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. Kotak Mahindra Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical Bollywood headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist and takes things (and ceiling rates) into their own hands. However, that's a story for another day.

Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<div type="image" title="The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books." agency="ANI" msid="114778648" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of <keyword id="113684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="microfinance" source="Orion">microfinance</keyword> and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, IndusInd Bank set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e. an NPA, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, RBI, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and <keyword id="20117932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="navi-finserv" source="keywords">Navi Finserv</keyword> from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending instalments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honour any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its gross NPA for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. IDFC Bank’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in <keyword id="6051027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Unsecured-loan" source="Orion">unsecured loan</keyword>s, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. <keyword id="6376194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra" source="Orion">Kotak Mahindra</keyword> Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical <keyword id="19897820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bollywood" source="keywords">Bollywood</keyword> headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist. However, that's a story for another day. Do you have a topic in mind you'd want a simpler explanation for, or insights or personal experience to share on personal finance and more? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.

Simply Put: Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Reddit stock surged 42% Wednesday to trade at a record high after reporting a strong earnings beat.</li><li>Reddit's revenue jumped 68% from a year ago, partly helped by licensing deals with OpenAI and Google.</li></ul>Reddit stock soared 42% to close at an all-time high of $116.03 per share on Wednesday afternoon after the company reported a strong earnings beat.A few months ago, investors appeared wary of Reddit's ability to compete on AI. Now, the platform's AI licensing deals are helping fuel its biggest quarterly revenue growth in two years and driving its stock to new records. On Tuesday, the company reported net income of $29.9 million, flying past expectations of an $8.8 million loss. It marks just the third profitable quarter for the company.Reddit's revenue jumped 68% from a year ago to $348.4 million. Part of that huge jump comes from its strong suite of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-train-ai-model-crazy-subreddit-posts-reddit-licensing-deal-2024-2">licensing deals</a> with OpenAI and Google, which are reflected in the $33.2 million of "other revenue" for the third quarter.That revenue category grew 547% year over year and now accounts for over 9% of the company's overall revenue, up from less than 1% last year.The company's licensing deals allow AI giants to train their models on the platform, which has become an increasingly competitive landscape. CEO Steve Huffman previously said Reddit is well-positioned amid an intense <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reddit-ceo-platform-arms-race-ai-training-steve-huffman-2024-10">"arms race" for AI training</a>.The company is also innovating in AI via language translation, which it's piloting in French, Huffman said during the earnings call. The move has helped drive more users to the site, he said."This quarter, machine translation drove four times more users than last quarter, and based on the success we've seen so far, we plan to expand machine translation to over 30 countries through 2025," Huffman added.The company added over 24 million daily users in the first three quarters of the year, already surging past the 15.6 million added in total last year, which has provided a huge boost to its ad business, too. Advertising revenue is forecast to surpass $1 billion for the year for the first time.Analysts say the company's ad and AI innovation are reasons for continued optimism on the stock."Revenue beat street expectations by 11%, dispelling fears around user growth sustainability, while displaying improved monetization via ad product innovation and AI-driven enhancements," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a Wednesday note."Looking forward, Reddit is expected to re-launch its Search tool in the coming quarters, which given the success of competing Gen AI-driven search tools, could drive another lever in monetization growth," they added, raising their price target on the stock from $85 to $115.Analysts are now expecting $113 million in profits next year, up from previous consensus estimates of just $17.5 million, according to FactSet data.

Reddit skyrockets 42% on strong earnings beat and AI-driven growth

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This is an excerpt from the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>We might be a week away from Election Day, but there's plenty to chew on in the meantime.This week is a big one for financial markets. The personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due Thursday. The October jobs report follows on Friday. We'll also get a third-quarter GDP report.That data will be the last bit of info the central bank gets before <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-tech-earnings-gdp-inflation-jobs-report-economy-2024-10">making a decision next week about rate cuts</a>, writes Business Insider's Kelly Cloonan. Traders are expecting the Fed to make a standard quarter-point cut.We're also getting financial check-ins from some of the biggest companies in the world. Big Tech earnings start today, with roughly $12 trillion in market cap reporting over three days.Here's what to look out for:TuesdayAlphabet: Last time, analysts wanted details on whether Google's AI bets were paying off. Executives can point to the slew of updates to Google Search <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-search-lens-ai-gemini-overviews-new-features-2024-10">unveiled earlier this month</a>. But the company has bigger concerns than justifying tech spend. An August antitrust ruling against Google <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-doj-battle-best-worst-scenarios-2024-10">threatens to upend the entire organization</a>.WednesdayMeta: Wall Street wants to know how much capex Meta will churn through in 2025, so we might get a forecast. Mark Zuckerberg hasn't shied away from saying his company will keep spending big on AI, and the market hasn't minded. Meta's shares are up almost 67% this year, trailing only Nvidia among its Magnificent 7 peers. Judging by Meta Connect 2024 and its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-reality-labs-weaable-ai-product-development-process-andrew-bosworth-2024-10">CTO's comments</a>, the tech giant wants to own the market for AI-powered wearables.Microsoft: Things haven't been as optimistic at Microsoft, where analysts hammered the company's AI spend. It doesn't help that reviews for Copilot AI are mixed. Microsoft's big early bet on OpenAI is also evolving. The startup is trying to shed its non-profit tag, but the relationship shows signs of strain.ThursdayAmazon: The e-commerce giant offers a valuable look at the strength of the US consumer. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ai-sales-machine-aws-google-microsoft-pressure-pay-speed-2024-9">AWS' strategy in our new AI-driven world</a> is also an area of focus. But Amazon's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-big-tech-cash-king-wall-street-wants-a-piece-2024-10">ballooning pile of cash and short-term investments</a> — set to hit $127.4 billion by year-end — might be what Wall Street cares about most.Apple: iPhone revenue has been a sore spot for Apple, partly due to diminishing sales in China. A new iPhone coupled with Apple Intelligence hopes to address that lull. And questions are swirling about the future of Apple's other big 2024 release: the Vision Pro.The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Big Tech earnings drop this week. Here's what Wall Street is watching.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks edged higher on Friday after a rough prior session as traders digested new data and earnings. </li><li>The producer price index rose slightly more than expected in June, with wholesale prices up 0.2%. </li></ul>US stocks were slightly higher on Friday as new inflation data dropped and big US banks kicked off second-quarter earnings season.The producer price index, which measures wholesale inflation, rose 0.2% last month versus estimates of 0.1%. That comes a day after a soft June consumer inflation report, which showed inflation declining 0.1% month-to-month.Commentators said the slightly hotter PPI print doesn't alter the calculus for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in September, and pricing pressure is definitively easing despite the hotter June producer figures."While Friday's strong PPI comes after Thursday's weak CPI print, the Federal Reserve is data dependent and will be examining each inflation data point before deciding whether or not to cut interest rates. Even with Friday's strong PPI, we still believe a September rate cut is in play," Clark Bellin, president and CIO of Bellwether Wealth, said.Meanwhile, big US banks opened up the second-quarter earnings season. JPMorgan reported record profit, but still saw shares fall after missing on net interest income. Wells Fargo saw deeper declines after saying its cost-cutting efforts are lagging forecasts.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,601.28, up 0.3%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,840.80, up 0.2% (87 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,361.76, up 0.5%</li></ul>Here's what else is happening:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-trump-could-pop-bubble-wins-president-election-2024-7">Trump's promise of tariffs and mass deportations</a> would pop the stock-market bubble, Capital Economics says.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-prices-montana-retired-boomer-homeowners-losing-houses-insurance-taxes-2024-7">Montana's housing crisis is a warning for older homeowners.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-draft-regulation-solar-cell-panel-industrial-overcapacity-production-2024-7">China nodded to concerns over oversupply</a> in the solar panel market.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were higher.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> West Texas Intermediate</a> crude rose 1% to $82.48 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, increased 0.7% to $86.02 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> fell 0.6% to $2,406 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield inched up to 4.209%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> fell 1.6% to $57,684</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes edge higher as traders digest fresh inflation data and bank earnings

Dear readers, As we approach yet another weekend, here are some key developments across various sectors. Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company, driven by the AI boom. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the second such reduction in 2024. In the workplace, Gen Z’s approach to mental health got attention, with one employee taking a week off after a breakup. Additionally, Indian banks are expecting steady growth, despite challenges in unsecured lending. Read on for all the details! <h2>Top stories from the week </h2> Indian banks to have steady growth in earnings over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report Jefferies forecasts steady earnings growth for Indian banks over the next 3–4 years, with a 13% annual loan growth rate. However, a decline in unsecured lending could reduce fee income. While net interest income is expected to grow at 12%, challenges such as rising defaults and a potential dip in rate cuts could affect profitability. Despite this, banks’ return on equity and assets remain promising. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/indian-banks-to-have-steady-growth-in-earning-over-next-3-4-years-fees-from-unsecured-lending-may-dip-notes-jefferies-report/articleshow/115048179.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> Nvidia becomes world’s largest company amid AI boom, surpasses Apple in the race Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company by market capitalization, driven by the AI boom. The company’s strong performance is fueled by surging demand for its chips used in AI technologies. With a market cap hitting $3.43 trillion, Nvidia continues to dominate the AI hardware sector, powering data centres and AI research. The company’s revenue growth of 122% YoY further cements its leadership in the AI space. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/nvidia-becomes-worlds-largest-company-amid-ai-boom-surpasses-apple-in-the-race/articleshow/115003223.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> ‘He had a breakup and took a one-week leave’: Manager shares about his Gen-Z employee, internet reacts A manager’s tweet about granting a Gen Z employee a week off for a breakup sparked widespread debate. While the manager expressed frustration over project delays, internet users defended the employee’s mental health needs, criticizing the manager’s lack of empathy. Some supported the manager’s view, pointing out generational differences in work culture. The incident went viral, furthering discussions about Gen Z’s unique workplace expectations. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/he-had-a-breakup-and-took-a-one-week-leave-manager-shares-about-his-gen-z-employee-internet-reacts/articleshow/115041747.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump’s victory to have no impact on policy decisions The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the second such reduction in 2024. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s independence despite Trump’s criticism and suggested that the economic outlook remains uncertain, though the Fed is focused on inflation targets. Trump’s policies may lead to higher inflation, adding complexity to the Fed’s efforts to stabilize prices. Experts anticipate that bond yields will stabilize, benefiting emerging markets like India. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/us-fed-cuts-interest-rates-by-25-bps-powell-notes-trumps-victory-to-have-no-impact-on-policy-decisions/articleshow/115070690.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> Big Tech’s winners and losers from Donald Trump’s win, according to the market After Donald Trump’s election victory, tech stocks surged, with companies like Tesla seeing significant gains. Tesla’s rise was fueled by Trump’s public support for CEO Elon Musk. Conversely, companies like Apple faced challenges due to fears over potential tariffs on China. While some, like Google, might benefit from lighter regulations, others like Meta could face political challenges. Overall, the election results reshaped market expectations for Big Tech’s future. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/here-are-big-techs-winners-and-losers-from-donald-trumps-win-according-to-the-market/articleshow/115067798.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> <h2>Top web stories</h2> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/webstories/donald-trump-on-screen-a-look-at-his-iconic-cameos/slidelist/115045250.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Donald Trump on screen: A look at his iconic cameos</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/webstories/8-lifestyle-mistakes-contributing-to-health-problems-in-india/slidelist/115051791.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">8 lifestyle mistakes contributing to health problems in India</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/travel/india/webstories/10-magical-indian-experiences-every-traveller-should-try/slidelist/115052527.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">10 magical Indian experiences every traveller should try</a>

Weekend wrap: Nvidia’s AI-driven surge, Indian banks’ steady growth and more

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Amazon will report its second-quarter earnings after the market close on Thursday.</li><li>Investors expect solid growth in Amazon's AWS cloud unit, as well as its massive retail operations.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock?miRedirects=1">Amazon</a> will report its second-quarter earnings results on Thursday after the market close, and all eyes are on the company's AWS cloud business.Wall Street expects the retail giant to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.47 in the quarter and revenue of $148.78 billion, according to data from Bloomberg.Top of mind for investors will be any commentary on Amazon's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/deals/amazon-prime-day">recent Prime Day sales event,</a> as well as the growth rate of its advertising business and whether its AWS cloud unit is still the leader in the space.Here's what Wall Street expects from Amazon's upcoming second-quarter earnings report.<h2 id="71b9d118-3642-43de-9f8b-b78edb7ce795">Bank of America: Amazon's retail unit is gaining share</h2>Bank of America expects Amazon to produce a solid earnings report on Thursday, with the bank expecting both a revenue and income beat, as well as faster-than-expected growth in its AWS cloud unit."Given beat in 1Q, new third-party fees, Prime ad ramp and limited fulfilment center square foot growth, we expect upside toward buyside expectations," Bank of America said in a recent note.The bank said the biggest risk for Amazon is its third-quarter profit margin guidance because Wall Street already has high expectations, and higher freight costs could serve as a headwind.While the US consumer is showing signs of softening, the bank expects Amazon's retail unit to be a beneficiary from the current economic environment."There are some signs of consumer softening, but we think Amazon is gaining share," Bank of America said.And while Amazon's stock multiple has expanded, the bank still sees upside potential."Given expanding retail margins with support from Prime ad growth, and expected AWS acceleration, we think the stock is still set up for multiple expansion in 2024," Bank of America said.Bank of America rates Amazon with a "Buy" and a $220 price target.<h2 id="1f27ebd5-97ff-4c14-b59d-f5d4fd18ba4d">Citi: 'Improving AWS demand and expanding profitability'</h2>Citi said Amazon is set to benefit from multiple tailwinds as demand for its AWS cloud services improves and it expands its profitability."Given GenAI tailwinds we believe AWS revenue growth likely accelerated in 2Q and based on improving efficiencies across Retail along with continued strong advertising demand, we believe OI is likely to be above the high-end of guidance," Citi said in a recent note.The bank said that while there are signs of a "more challenged" low-end consumer, Amazon's delivery improvements should result in solid retail sales."Faster delivery has improved conversion rates and our analysis of Prime Day suggests another successful event," Citi said.Here's what Citi will be looking for on Amazon's earnings call:"During earnings, we'll be listening for AWS demand, the results from the May Upfronts, Prime Video demand, and thoughts on its newly signed NBA streaming rights, international profitability, capex, and any insights on capital returns as margins ramp," Citi said.Citi rates Amazon with a "Buy" and a $245 price target.<h2 id="d91037a0-d1f4-4c4f-aa99-1358c5ae5a2b">Goldman Sachs: 3 key things to watch for in Amazon's Q2 earnings</h2>Goldman Sachs highlighted three key investor debates that will be ongoing as Amazon reports its second-quarter results.Those three things are:<ol><li>"The overall health of the consumer — Amazon's eCommerce business appears to have remained strong in Q2 based on a host of industry checks and data points intra quarter."</li><li>"The ability of Amazon to continue to produce Operating Income margin upside — a topic we delve into greater detail in the note and still see the potential for outperformance in 2025 driven by higher retail margins and a stronger contribution of advertising — we also maintain a positive long-term view on Intl margins and expect AWS profitability to remain robust."</li><li>"The trajectory of AWS revenue growth, where we continue to expect reacceleration through 2024 as prior headwinds around optimization and workload migration turn into tailwinds and AI workloads are a rising tailwind."</li></ol>Goldman Sachs rates Amazon with a "Buy" and a $250 price target.<h2 id="25293eb3-dbad-48be-aff3-6f1e2703c0a4">JPMorgan: 'Expect AWS acceleration'</h2>JPMorgan said in a recent note that investor discussions reveal the top areas of focus to be the potential for accelerated growth in Amazon's AWS cloud unit."Investor discussions focused on AWS acceleration, GenAI positioning, pace of North America OI margin expansion, health of the consumer, and magnitude of FCF and potential capital returns," JPMorgan said.The bank, which calls Amazon a "Best Idea," said investors are looking for Amazon to deliver between $148 billion and $150 billion in revenue, and AWS unit growth of 17% to 18% in the second quarter."We expect AWS acceleration and solid Stores growth, North America and International OI margin expansion, and improved cost discipline to support multi-year FCF ramp," JPMorgan said.JPMorgan rates Amazon with an "Overweight" and a $240 price target.<h2 id="c7010070-1cee-4415-ba82-dacf06e2bd1a">Bloomberg Intelligence: 'Double-digit sales gains may stay intact'</h2>Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence expects Amazon's second-quarter sales to rise towards the high end of its 7% to 11% guidance range thanks to strong e-commerce sales, ongoing advertising gains and continued growth in Amazon's AWS cloud division."AWS sales, in constant currency, may meet consensus' high-teens view," Bloomberg Intelligence said.Amazon should also see some solid growth in its retail division, according to the note."On the retail side, the company's personal-shopping assistant Rufus and other gen-AI enhancements, coupled with third-party sales outpacing first party, are catalysts," Bloomberg Intelligence said.The analysts also said Amazon's advertising revenue could continue to grow at a "20%-plus pace as Amazon takes market share."

'Gaining share': Here's what Wall Street expects from Amazon's 2nd-quarter earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Tuesday, with the tech sector rallying ahead of key earnings reports.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq ended the day in the green, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq hitting a fresh record.</li></ul>US stocks traded mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite rising to a fresh record as traders looked ahead to high-profile earnings reports. The tech-heavy index and the S&amp;P 500 finished the day in the green, while bond yields wobbled.Shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/snap-stock">Snap</a> rose 1%, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amd-stock">Advanced Micro Devices </a>popped 3% as investors awaited earnings after the closing bell.Shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a> also rose 1%, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock">Meta</a> shares climbed 2% as traders anticipated their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10">financials</a> on Wednesday. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a>, which held mostly steady, is on deck to report on Thursday.Corporate profits have come in strong so far for the quarter. The S&amp;P 500 is on track to post a net profit margin of at least 12% for the reporting period, which would mark the second straight quarter it's done so, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-reporting-net-profit-margin-of-at-least-12-for-the-2nd-straight-quarter">FactSet</a> analysis.Traders are looking to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-tech-earnings-gdp-inflation-jobs-report-economy-2024-10">big few weeks</a> for markets, with third-quarter GDP set to be published Wednesday and the October jobs report due out Friday. The Fed is due to make its next rates decision next week, a day after the presidential election. Some doubts linger over whether the Fed will take interest rates as low as some investors initially hoped. Markets are pricing in a 53% chance rates will stay within 50 basis-points of their current target range at the Fed's January meeting, up from 0% odds priced in a month ago, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,832.92, up 0.16% <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,233.05, down 0.36% (-154.52 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,712.75, up 0.78% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>A hint in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-earnings-outlook-q3-bottom-demand-manufacturing-election-bofa-2024-10?_gl=1*gr9ay9*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDIyMjUxNS40OTYuMS4xNzMwMjIzMTMxLjguMC4w">S&amp;P 500 earnings calls</a> suggests that corporate profits are about to boom, Bank of America says.</li><li>Here's what Wall Street is expecting for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10?_gl=1*i0lfm3*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDIyMjUxNS40OTYuMS4xNzMwMjIzMTEyLjI3LjAuMA..">Meta's third-quarter earnings report</a>.</li><li>The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cut-rates-inflation-powell-blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-2024-10">just one more rate cut this year</a>, according to BlackRock's Larry Fink.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.22% to $67.23 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, held steady at $70.74 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> rose 1.13% to $2,772.63 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield traded mostly event at 4.274%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> popped 5.84% to $73,279.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Nasdaq closes at a record ahead of key tech earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street analysts have high hopes for Meta's third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday. </li><li>Investors are keeping an eye on growth opportunities from AI. </li></ul>Wall Street analysts are upbeat ahead of Meta's third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday after the closing bell. Analysts generally expect positive revenue and earnings figures, thanks to the Facebook parent's AI ad optimization and the firm's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-reorganized-major-businesses-eliminated-roles-whatsapp-instagram-reality-labs-2024-10#:~:text=Meta%20has%20gone%20through%20several,%22efficiency%22%20would%20be%20permanent.&amp;text=As%20of%20March%2C%20Meta%20had,of%202022%2C%20BI%20previously%20reported.">sweeping cost cuts</a>, which included several rounds of layoffs in recent years and saw the firm backing away from some of its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-cuts-spending-reality-labs-meta-report-2024-7">virtual reality projects</a>. Investors will be keeping a close eye on signs Meta can continue that growth, with the company <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=4d0247c89eeec6faa3e72d5dee88e7c60fa1cc284a9699c5902f9e7a696dc773&amp;postID=6720fbaf3a35c2732d44c2bb&amp;postSlug=meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theinformation.com%2Farticles%2Fmeta-develops-ai-search-engine-to-lessen-reliance-on-google-microsoft">reportedly</a> working on a new search tool that will surf the web for its AI chatbot. Wall Street is also looking for strong guidance for the current quarter, though analysts see potential for costs to come in higher than expected.Here's what analysts are saying ahead of the tech giant's earnings report. <h2 id="a8b0515c-9d85-4b4d-b1cf-6fce44552568">"Long-term story is as strong as ever": Bernstein</h2>Meta's long-run growth trajectory looks solid, according to Bernstein senior analyst Mark Shmulik. The stock is up 70% this year and is up 550% since bottoming in 2022."Near term risk and reward feels balanced," Shmulik wrote in a note, adding that the firm had a "perma-bull position on all things Meta.""But the long-term story is as strong as ever. As we look ahead we're constructive on the core business with an expected launch of ads on Threads, continued Reels ramp, more AI/Advantage+ ad tools offer investors top-line upside with a potential TikTok ban not currently priced in," he later added.The firm issued an "Outperform" rating on the stock and a $675 price target, implying 15% upside from current levels.<h2 id="dc7c6a08-8f5f-4c79-812c-4fa35a463037">"Uniquely well positioned to monetize search": JMP</h2>Meta's reported search engine could be a huge positive for the company, JMP analysts said in a note."Meta is uniquely well positioned to monetize search given its 200M+ active SMBs and 12M+ active advertisers," the firm wrote. "To that end, we believe Meta could offer a compelling commercial experience for search given its existing advertiser and SMB relationships while also using search intent signal to power its core advertising product on Facebook and Instagram."The search tool, though, could raise capital expenditures and costs, analysts said, possibly by more than investors are expecting. The firm issued an "Outperform" rating on the stock and a $635 price target, implying an 8% increase from current levels.<h2 id="3ae15c9a-d200-4592-ae15-3f19e716186b">"Top AI pick": Bank of America</h2>BofA analysts expect a "modest" earnings beat from the tech giant on Wednesday. They forecast the firm to report as much as $47.5 billion in revenue, which would represent an 18% year-over-year increase.Meta is a "top AI pick," the analysts added, pointing to a handful of tailwinds, like strong growth in Meta's AI-powered ads business, continued growth among younger users, and more AI growth opportunities in general."Our checks suggest Meta could see strength from: 1) new AI tools and new CRM integration driving higher ROI and incremental ad spend, 2) ramping messaging and Reels monetization, and 3) modest (100-200bps) political ad spend benefit," analysts wrote.The bank reiterated its "Buy" rating and $630 price target on the stock, implying 7% upside from current levels.<h2 id="2fdf202a-5a5b-4d15-a99d-48ed4f86b7d1">"Clear leader in social media": Morningstar</h2>Meta is a "<a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=8e3a91b023e95d600e3f54d96021a46339a33c3d1cf4d2a1d57384a4edc6bc4a&amp;postID=6720fbaf3a35c2732d44c2bb&amp;postSlug=meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningstar.com%2Fstocks%2Fraising-fair-value-meta-stock-ai-ad-leadership">clear leader</a>" on an "unmatched scale" in the social meaning space, Morningstar said in a recent note, pointing to the firm's 4 billion monthly active users across its applications.Investors though, are keeping hawkish eye over signs Meta can sustain its growth, according to Dave Sekera, Morningstar's chief US market strategist."The market is going to be listening for any update on capex spending, specifically on generative AI. I'd really like to hear from them more specifically about how and when they will be able to monetize that spending. That's the big question for Meta," Sekara said. "Other than that, I'll be listening for an update on growth and digital ads; they had a big benefit from ad spending in Temu and Shein over the past couple quarters, so the question is whether that growth will continue or will it start to slow."The firm previously issued a 3-star rating for the stock and a fair value of $560, implying 5% downside from current levels.<h2 id="b7a7a27b-67d4-4195-b1a2-3e4d05b93099">"A tough bar to surpass": CFRA Research</h2>Meta could face challenges ahead due to the risk that growth decelerated in the last quarter, CFRA Research said."META has a tough bar to surpass in upcoming Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. We estimate Q3 growth decelerated to 18% from 22% in Q2 and see further deceleration to 15% in Q4 2024 and 13% in Q1 2025," CFRA senior equity analyst Angelo Zino wrote. He added that the challenge in the coming quarters will be to keep up with strong growth compared to the year-ago quarters. "We think year-over-year deceleration is due to lapping strong growth from China-based advertisers as well as strong Reels impression growth from a year ago. Still, we think digital ad trends remain healthy, with broad-based health across most regions and verticals," Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA, wrote.CFRA raised its price target on the stock to $650 a share, implying 11% upside.

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