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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Amid the ongoing geopolitical tension, the <keyword id="19904988" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-sector" source="keywords">energy sector</keyword> will continue to face challenge while the <keyword id="20468174" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-goods" source="keywords">consumer goods</keyword>, automotive, healthcare is set to expand in 2025, highlighted a report 'Industry Outlook 2025' by <keyword id="20618515" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economist-Intelligence-Unit" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economist Intelligence Unit" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economist Intelligence Unit">Economist Intelligence Unit</keyword>. The report noted that the Fossil fuel markets will continue to face risks from geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, investments in <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> will remain strong, especially in China, as the world pushes toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. The report said "Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face <keyword id="20064250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-risks" source="keywords">geopolitical risks</keyword> amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, but investment into renewables will remain strong, particularly in China." It also added that the financial sector faces a mixed outlook with falling interest rates anticipated to narrow bank profit margins, potentially leading to smaller dividend payouts for shareholders. Yet, regulatory easing could provide relief, with the Basel III endgame likely seeing further delays, softening the impact on banking institutions amid a challenging economic landscape. For the consumer goods and retailing the report added that the Global retail volumes are forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2025, thanks to easing inflation. However, stricter regulations on online retailing will target high-volume, low-price retailers, to ensure fair competition and consumer protection. It said "Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2 per cent, helped by disinflation, but regulations around online retailing will tighten further" As per report, the <keyword id="20359760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="automotive-sector" source="keywords">automotive sector</keyword> is set for a record year, it said "After a difficult few years, annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025. This includes a 2 per cent rise in new car sales, a 4 per cent increase in commercial vehicle sales, and a significant 16 per cent growth in <keyword id="19963112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicle-sales" source="keywords">electric vehicle sales</keyword>, reflecting the sector's recovery and the shift toward cleaner mobility. In technology the report added more countries will adopt satellite internet, although the primary users will be enterprise clients, including military and maritime sectors. Amazon's Project Kuiper will challenge the existing market dominance of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb, offering more competition and potential growth in satellite connectivity. The resulting tensions will continue to affect investment into production and market entry, with companies taking advantage of government incentives to build out more flexible supply chains. <keyword id="23684177" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-in-technology" source="keywords">Investment in technology</keyword>, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), will also be strong as projects gather pace. However, technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten (particularly in Europe), investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny.

Consumer goods, auto and healthcare sector to expand but energy may face challenge in 2025: Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia will resume public sector layoffs, affecting up to at least 40,000 workers, per Kommersant.</li><li>Layoffs were paused due to COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</li></ul>Russia is expected to lay off at least 40,000 government officials next year, according to a report by the Russian <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7296193?tg">Kommersant</a> newspaper.Russian President Vladimir Putin last month<a target="_blank" class="" href="http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/0001202410290050?index=1"> ordered regional branches of federal government agencies to cut staff by 10%</a> by July, per the publication.The layoffs were believed to be planned for much earlier but were put on hold for several years due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.According to Kommersant, the cuts are designed to make the civil service more efficient and raise the salaries of existing staff.Russia's official wage statistics, published in January, showed wages in the private sector rose by 8% to 20% last year.The cuts would also allow more people to enter Russia's labor market which is experiencing a widespread shortage of workers amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.According to an estimate from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics, Russia was short a record 5 million workers at the end of 2023.Workers have been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-raises-mobilization-age-some-reservists-can-be-called-70-2023-7">pulled into the </a>Ukraine war or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/number-of-russians-fleeing-draft-bigger-1st-invasion-force-uk-2022-9">forced to flee</a> after Putin enacted a major mobilization to increase wartime recruitment.Russia has turned to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-making-labor-crisis-worse-sending-workers-to-war-ukraine-2023-11">migrant</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-worker-shortage-prison-labor-ukraine-war-putin-kremlin-2023-10">prison labor</a> to supplement its workforce, but those aren't sustainable solutions to its population problem, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">report</a> by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University.Last year, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned that continued <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-depleted-workforce-threatening-economic-growth-says-central-bank-2023-11-09/">workforce depletion</a> would threaten Russian economic growth.However, so far, Russia's economy has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">held up</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2"> partly because of its war spending</a>, which has boosted growth despite soaring <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">inflation</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-raises-key-interest-rate-to-21-2024-10">high interest rates</a>.Inflation<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/"> hit 9.8%</a> in September, and potatoes, which are a staple of Russian diets, saw a<a target="_blank" href="https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/172_08-11-2024.html"> 64% increase in price</a> this year.Russia is expected to spend <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-defense-sector-on-overdrive-but-firms-warn-of-collapse-2024-11">$140 billion on its defense industry in 2024</a> and up to $145 billion in 2025, or 6.3% of its GDP.

Under strain from war, Russia plans a massive layoff in its public sector: report

The ongoing issue involving Supreme Infrastructure India Limited (<keyword id="23294280" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SIIL" source="keywords">SIIL</keyword>) and the State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) has become a focal point in India’s financial and political landscape. It concerns SIIL’s default on significant loans and SBI’s decision to convert this debt into equity, raising concerns about the precedent it may set for future debt resolutions in India. <h2>SIIL's financial troubles</h2>SIIL, a construction and infrastructure company, was once engaged in large-scale projects such as roads and bridges across India. Over the years, however, the company faced severe financial troubles due to project delays and insufficient revenues. As SIIL’s cash flow problems worsened, it struggled to repay its loans, leading to the company’s default. The State Bank of India (SBI), being SIIL’s largest lender, found itself at the centre of this financial turmoil, as SIIL declared bankruptcy. In response, SBI decided to take an unusual step to recover its dues. <h2>SBI's debt-to-equity conversion decision</h2>In a surprising move, SBI converted its outstanding debt into equity in SIIL. This means that instead of pursuing traditional recovery methods or selling off assets, SBI has now become an equity stakeholder in SIIL, shifting from being its primary lender to part-owner. The controversial decision also involved other lenders who agreed to take a 93.45% “haircut” on the debt, which indicates that they are recovering only a fraction of the original loans extended to SIIL. <h2>Criticism and concerns</h2>The decision has drawn sharp criticism, particularly from political circles. <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> leader Jairam Ramesh, through a post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), criticised SBI’s approach and raised several concerns. He highlighted that SBI’s decision to become an equity stakeholder in a company that declared bankruptcy could set a "dangerous precedent in India’s <keyword id="20575563" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="corporate-debt" source="keywords">corporate debt</keyword> landscape". "This arrangement creates a dangerous precedent in India's corporate debt landscape — it encourages other defaulting companies to seek similar deals, where they can retain control and value even after significant defaults," Ramesh noted. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112987756" title="Congress alleges SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch of office for profit" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>His concerns extend to how this move might affect the <keyword id="20158086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Insolvency-and-Bankruptcy-Code" source="keywords">Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code</keyword> (IBC) and India’s overall framework for handling distressed companies. By converting <keyword id="22921090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="debt-to-equity" source="keywords">debt to equity</keyword>, SBI could be seen as aligning itself with the interests of the defaulting borrower (SIIL) rather than prioritising the recovery of public funds, which are at stake in cases involving <keyword id="19959986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-sector-banks" source="keywords">public sector banks</keyword> like SBI. “The SBI appears to be aligning itself with the interests of the defaulting borrower (SIIL) rather than prioritising the recovery of public funds,” Ramesh further argued. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) needs to step in and examine SBI's decision-making process in this matter." Given the unusual nature of this debt restructuring and the potential risks it introduces, Congress is urging the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to step in and examine SBI’s decision-making process. Ramesh emphasised the need for regulatory scrutiny to ensure that public sector banks maintain discipline in their approach to resolving bad loans. Congress' position is that SBI’s move could create a moral hazard within India’s <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>, encouraging more companies to default on their loans with the hope of retaining control through similar debt-to-equity swaps. Ramesh pointed out that the entire situation raises questions about how distressed assets should be managed by public sector banks, and whether SBI’s actions are truly in the best interests of the public. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113620397" title="SEBI report reveals the ugly truth of F&amp;amp;O trading in India – 93% of retail traders incurred losses" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>"There is a pressing need to ensure that public sector banks maintain strict discipline in their approach to debt resolution and avoid creating moral hazards in the financial system." <h2>Broader implications</h2>This situation shines a light on broader challenges in India’s banking and insolvency frameworks. When public sector banks like SBI take significant financial losses (haircuts) and switch from creditors to shareholders, it risks undermining confidence in the banking sector’s ability to handle bad loans effectively. Moreover, it raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) if companies that default can avoid paying back substantial portions of their debt and still retain operational control. (With inputs from PTI)

Congress criticises SBI's decision to convert SIIL debt into equity, urges RBI intervention

<keyword id="20104772" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hyundai-Motors" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Hyundai Motors" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Hyundai Motors">Hyundai Motors</keyword> India's IPO worth Rs 27,870 crore, the largest India has ever seen, got off to an unhurried start today, with 18% of the total offer subscribed on the first day. The IPO, which closes on October 17, has already attracted significant attention from retail and institutional investors. The issue was subscribed 0.27x in the retail category, 0.05x in the QIB (qualified institutional buyers) category and 0.13x in the NII (non institutional investors) category. <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">Retail investors</keyword> placed bids for 1.3 crore shares, as against the 4.94 crore shares which were offered to them. In contrast, Hyundai employees showed strong support for the IPO, bidding for 6,28,509 shares, as against the 7,78,400 shares allocated to them. Just a day before, Hyundai had raised Rs 8,315.3 crore from about 225 <keyword id="21330641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="anchor-investors" source="keywords">anchor investors</keyword>. The list included several marquee global names, like the <keyword id="22882636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Government-of-Singapore" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Government of Singapore" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Government of Singapore">Government of Singapore</keyword>, New World Fund Inc, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. These institutions, along with Fidelity, Government Pension Fund Global, and American Funds Insurance Series New World Fund, invested a combined Rs 2,191.66 crore in the company. Other notable participants in the anchor round included Vanguard, Blackrock, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Hyundai Motor India allocated 4.2 crore equity shares to these anchor investors at Rs 1,960 per share. Also, 34.42% of the entire allocation to anchor investors went to 21 domestic mutual funds via 83 schemes. AMCs (asset management companies) like ICICI, Invesco, Kotak and UTI were part of this round. While the current IPO is entirely OFS (offer for sale), which means that no part of the proceeds will go to Hyundai Motor India, the company has announced that it plans to invest more than Rs 33,000 crore over the next 10 years in India. The country is an important market for the South Korean automobile giant, given that it is the 2nd largest OEM (original equipment manufacturer) in the passenger vehicle space in India. However, the market is already preparing for muted listing day gains, with the company's GMP dropping to Rs 59 today. Hyundai is estimated to list at Rs 2,019 per today's GMP, taking the expected gain/loss per share to a minuscule 3.01%, as per data from IPO site Chittorgarh.

India's biggest IPO off to a slow start, subscribed 0.18x on Day 1

India’s diamond industry is grappling with a severe downturn as both imports and exports have significantly declined over the past three years, triggering defaults, <keyword id="23043782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="factory-closures" source="keywords">factory closures</keyword>, and widespread <keyword id="20013745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-losses" source="keywords">job losses</keyword>, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (<keyword id="19962754" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GTRI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="GTRI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="GTRI">GTRI</keyword>). The think tank highlighted that the sector is struggling with unsold <keyword id="20237406" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rough-diamonds" source="keywords">rough diamonds</keyword> and increasing competition from lab-grown alternatives. Ajay Srivastava, Founder of GTRI, pointed out that the downturn in India’s diamond industry has had devastating effects. "This has led to defaults, factory closures, and widespread job losses. Tragically, more than 60 individuals from Gujarat’s diamond sector have taken their own lives, highlighting the intense financial and emotional stress," Srivastava said. He emphasised the urgent need for intervention to address these issues and ensure the survival of the sector. <h2>Declining imports and exports</h2>Data from GTRI paints a grim picture of the industry. Imports of rough diamonds have dropped by 24.5%, from USD 18.5 billion in 2021-22 to USD 14 billion in 2023-24, reflecting weakened global demand and fewer orders for diamond processing. After accounting for re-exported rough diamonds, net imports saw a 25.3% decrease, signalling reduced interest in processing diamonds in India. The situation is even worse on the export front. Exports of cut and polished diamonds fell by 34.6%, from USD 24.4 billion in FY 2022 to USD 13.1 billion in FY 2024. Net exports experienced an even sharper decline, dropping by 45.3% from USD 15.9 billion to USD 8.7 billion, indicating a weak global market and rising inventories of unsold diamonds. <h2>Rising inventories and market competition</h2>The report also highlighted that the percentage of unsold diamonds returned to India increased from 35% to 45.6% during this period. Additionally, the gap between net rough diamond imports and net exports of cut and polished diamonds widened from USD 1.6 billion in FY 2022 to USD 4.4 billion in FY 2024, signifying a growing stockpile of unsold inventory and insufficient export demand. Several factors contribute to this crisis. Global economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions — particularly in key markets like the US, China, and Europe — have led to decreased spending on luxury items such as diamonds. Fluctuating global diamond prices have added to this uncertainty, causing buyers to hesitate in purchasing rough diamonds. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113445065" title="&amp;#39;The pressure became too much for her&amp;#39;: Mother blames &amp;#39;work stress&amp;#39; for 26-year-old EY employee&amp;#39;s death" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the global diamond supply chain, with sanctions on Russia, a major producer of rough diamonds, further complicating trade. This slowdown has impacted the global market, stalling the flow of diamonds and affecting India’s processing sector. Another challenge facing the industry is the shift in consumer preferences toward <keyword id="20662742" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lab-grown-diamonds" source="keywords">lab-grown diamonds</keyword>, which are seen as more affordable, ethical, and sustainable. This shift is particularly evident in markets where customers are becoming more conscious of the environmental and ethical implications of their purchases. <h2>Internal regulatory and operational hurdles</h2>Internally, the Indian diamond sector is facing a host of challenges. Many polishing units are burdened with unsold inventories of polished diamonds, discouraging them from importing new rough diamonds. Rising operational costs, including labour, energy, and materials, have also made it difficult for many polishing units to remain profitable. These factors have led to the closure of many shops and significant layoffs, particularly in Surat, the world’s largest hub for diamond cutting and polishing. The sector's heavy reliance on financing has also become a problem. Tighter credit conditions and reduced lending from banks have made it increasingly difficult for businesses to purchase rough diamonds, further stalling production. Additionally, a significant number of cut and polished diamonds exported from India are being returned due to quality issues, overstocking, and price fluctuations, creating costly delays and adding to the strain on exporters. <h2>Dubai's rising influence</h2>An interesting development highlighted by GTRI is the increasing share of rough diamond imports from Dubai, which does not produce diamonds itself. Instead, Dubai imports diamonds from countries like Botswana, Angola, South Africa, and Russia and re-exports them to India. Dubai’s share in India’s rough diamond imports surged from 36.3% in FY 2020 to 60.8% in FY 2024, further rising to 64.5% in April-June 2024. In contrast, Belgium’s share of these imports fell from 37.9% in FY 2020 to 17.6% in FY 2024. One major reason for Dubai's increasing role is India’s high corporate tax regime, which pushes foreign suppliers of rough diamonds to re-export their diamonds to Dubai before sending them to India. This has rendered India’s Special Notified Zones (SNZs) in Mumbai and Surat largely ineffective. <h2>Revitalising the sector</h2>To help revitalise the struggling sector, GTRI has proposed several measures. These include extending export credit terms, exempting foreign rough diamond sellers from corporate taxes in India, regulating the lab-grown diamond industry, and reconsidering the zero-tariff import of cut and polished diamonds from Dubai under the India-UAE trade agreement. The think tank also suggested that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) extend the export credit period for cut and polished diamond exporters from six months to 12 months, as buyers are increasingly demanding longer credit terms. India’s strong foreign exchange reserves make this feasible. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113449316" title="Small businesses generated 35 million job applications till Aug 2024, 14 million were from women: Report" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The Indian diamond industry, which consists of over 7,000 companies — many of them small or medium enterprises — provides direct employment to about 1.3 million workers, with Surat alone employing nearly 8,00,000 people. The industry is also crucial for millions of indirect jobs in sectors like logistics, transport, and retail. With the sector being such a vital part of India’s economy, immediate and coordinated efforts are needed to address its current challenges and ensure its long-term viability. (With inputs from PTI)

India's diamond sector faces major crisis amid plummeting imports, exports, and massive job losses

Last week, the President of the United States, <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword>, announced significant tariffs on a range of <keyword id="20139085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-products" source="keywords">Chinese products</keyword> to protect American workers from unfair trade practices. The targetted measures include a 100% tariff on <keyword id="6354973" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicles" source="Orion">electric vehicles</keyword>, a 50% tariff on semiconductors and solar cells, and a 25% tariffs on batteries, steel and aluminium products, some critical minerals, and essential health equipment like medical gloves, syringes and needles. In his address from the Rose Garden of the White House, Biden said America can continue to buy any kind of car they want, "but we're never going to allow China to unfairly control the market for these cars. Period." He claimed that the Chinese government has been investing state funds in various Chinese companies for years, spanning industries across the above-mentioned sectors. How does this brewing geopolitical <keyword id="20736760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-war" source="keywords">trade war</keyword> impact <keyword id="20742235" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-firms" source="keywords">Indian firms</keyword>? Experts say the impact could be in two ways, benefitting some sectors, while harming the few others. Let’s start with the bad news. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Threat to Indian firms" comment="subhead" text="Threat to Indian firms">Threat to Indian firms</cmsannotation> Beijing offers significant subsidies on most of these products, leading to surplus production that exceeds domestic and even regular export demand. Subsequently, Chinese companies are known to flood the global markets with surplus products at unreasonably low prices, forcing local manufacturers out of business in many countries, including <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. A prime example of this in practice can be found in the steel sector, where weak domestic demand is pushing the world’s largest steel producer China to offload surplus production into Indian markets at cheaper prices. Indian steel manufacturers are already struggling to compete with a glut of cheaper Chinese steel, with shipments nearly doubling year-on-year in the financial year ending March 2024. “India is already under grave threat of import because all major steel consuming economies are shutting their doors on these steel producing countries. We are highly vulnerable to surging and predatory import,” said Alok Sahay, secretary general of the Indian Steel Association, to Reuters. Global trade experts say that a majority of Chinese products are sold at unreasonably low prices in global markets because the companies in these sectors do not have to worry about profits. They are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government. <keyword id="20279291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Steel-Authority-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Steel Authority of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Steel Authority of India">Steel Authority of India</keyword>’s (SAIL) chairman Amarendu Prakash also said that they are keenly watching Chinese imports after the US tariff increases. Additionally, China has been accused of employing anti-competitive strategies like compelling foreign companies to transfer their technology in order to operate in China. These factors have led to the US effectively shutting its door on several Chinese products through heightened tariffs, and other developed markets like Canada are also likely to follow suit. White House also emphasised that it continues to consult with its partners and allies who are facing similar threats from China’s unfair trade practices and are keen on taking action. If more and more global markets restrict entry of Chinese products, the risk of the majority of such products being dumped in neighbouring India increases drastically. Trying to block Chinese excess production "is like squeezing a balloon. It shrinks in one place and pops out in another," William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, tells Reuters. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="An opportunity also arises" comment="subhead" text="An opportunity also arises">An opportunity also arises</cmsannotation> While some products risk being dumped into the Indian market, in a few other cases, Indian firms could benefit from fresh openings in the lucrative US market. "Of the products affected, India has opportunities in face masks, PPE, syringes &amp;needles, medical gloves, aluminium, iron, and steel. Opportunity may come in China also with retaliation, provided we have market access in products targeted by China," Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), told ANI. However, China is not likely to retaliate against the US tariffs at the moment, say experts, though the country’s Ministry of Commerce said it would take 'resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests' "China's economy is fragile. With household spending and the property market on the wane, manufacturing for export markets is one of its few bright spots. Beijing will not want to cut off its nose to spite its face. More broadly, China is desperately trying to encourage new foreign investment. Rash retaliatory action could spoil its case," Moody's Analytics explained in a recent report. Out of China's USD 420 billion exports to the US, only USD 18 billion is impacted due to the latest hike in tariffs — representing slightly over 4% and therefore considered marginal. But Sahai says that this market will continue to grow with time and provides an opportunity to India and other competitors to chip in the supply gap. Ajay Srivastava, the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), also echoes Sahai’s opinions. He emphasised that the increased duties on Chinese face masks, syringes, needles, medical gloves, and natural graphite offer a substantial opportunity for India, as quoted by ANI. "By ramping up production and export of these in-demand products, India could enhance its trade footprint in the US market," he added. In terms of products like electric vehicles and semiconductors, India remains a net importer, and therefore, may not be in a position to capitalise right now. In the long term, however, as India begins semiconductor production at scale in 2025, there will be opportunities to export some of it to the US and other European countries, offering fresh impetus for domestic manufacturing. As the security risks associated with importing Chinese semiconductors prompts more and more trade barriers from the Western countries, demand for supply from India is likely to grow. Efforts are already underway for the establishment of four large semiconductor plants in India, with three located in Gujarat and one in Assam. Last fiscal year, Indian exports to the US dipped marginally by 1.32 per cent to $77.5 billion as against $78.54 billion in 2022-23. The new development now gives an unique opportunity to turn the tide over the next few years. Overall, some sectors like steel and aluminium do face a serious challenge due to the fresh US tariffs on Chinese products. However, the development will open new avenues for Western market entry and expansion for several other products. (With inputs from agencies)

US-China tariff war could benefit several sectors in India while harming a few others

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia faces mounting economic issues that could prove "unsolvable," a think tank expert says. </li><li>Russia boosted next year's defense and security spending to post-Soviet highs. </li></ul>Moscow's plan to ramp up defense spending will drive Russia's economy into deeper trouble — and the country is facing insurmountable issues down the road, Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center fellow, wrote for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/0778af05-fde1-47e3-90e4-bf0b2411d155">the Financial Times</a>.Though troubles are mounting for the Kremlin, it will take years before it has to confront to its own overspending, Prokopenko said."This is an unpleasant truth for policymakers in Europe and the US," she wrote. "Instead of hoping that Russia's economic combat power will soon be exhausted, the West must focus on a long-term strategy that will further constrain Putin's war machine and boost Ukraine's own economic resilience."Last month, Russia hiked its 2025 national <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hikes-national-defence-spending-by-23-2025-2024-09-30/">defense state spending by 25%</a>, signaling its resolve to continue its war in Ukraine.Defense and national security spending will account for 8% of GDP and 40% of all federal expenditures, Prokopeko said — the highest level since the Soviet Union's collapse.In boosting spending to such heights, Russian President Vladimir Putin is effectively dismissing brewing economic imbalances as other parts of the budget become squeezed. This shift toward a military-oriented economy could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/0778af05-fde1-47e3-90e4-bf0b2411d155">last up to eight years</a>, she pred, but will come back to bite Russia down the road."The resources Putin can muster are not unlimited. By pouring more money into defense, the Kremlin is exacerbating existing economic imbalances," Prokopenko wrote, adding: "Putin faces an unsolvable trilemma of simultaneously maintaining a balanced financial system, meeting social obligations and sustaining defense spending at current levels."These conditions will affect the nation's public sector, as industries such as healthcare, education, and the sciences will lose access to resources.Prokopenko suggested that the West should keep ratcheting up sanctions enforcement on Russia, which is increasing transaction costs for the Kremlin. In her view, this could speed up the timeline for Moscow to face tough choices.Western restrictions are already weighing on Putin's economic strategy, she noted. Sanctions have disrupted Russia's ability to modernize its military, broken up supply chains and curbed financial transactions.For instance, nearly all Chinese banks now <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">refuse to transact with Russia</a>, despite the importance of Beijing's rising trade relationship with Moscow.Meanwhile, Russia's focus on defense has pushed wages up and sent inflation soaring — conditions that don't bode well for the country's broader economic health. By the country's own estimates, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-growth-recession-labor-worker-shortage-inflation-sanctions-west-2024-9">GDP growth</a> will start to stutter as soon as next year; paired with stubborn price growth, that puts Moscow on a risky <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">path toward stagflation</a>.

Russia's economy faces an 'unsolvable trilemma' but can survive for several more years, think tank expert says

<keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">Gold prices</keyword> have corrected sharply by 7% or Rs 5,000 per 10 grams in the local markets after the government slashed the basic customs duty on gold. Lower costs will encourage more people to invest in the yellow metal, both as a commodity and as a financial asset, experts say. Analysts said customs duty cut has made gold imports cheaper. The move will help curb the rampant issue of gold smuggling, leading to growth in the organised <keyword id="22107284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-sector" source="keywords">jewellery sector</keyword>. "The cut in basic <keyword id="20330317" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="custom-duty" source="keywords">custom duty</keyword> on gold prices makes the yellow metal cheaper. While this can lead to weaker market sentiments due to the sudden change, <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword> stand to benefit from the new, more attractive pricing for gold," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities Echoing similar sentiments, Krishnan R, Director &amp; CEO of Unimoni Financial Services said lower costs will encourage more people to invest in gold, both as a commodity and as a financial asset, which is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Following the <keyword id="19936553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget" source="keywords">budget</keyword> announcement by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman that the government has slashed basic customs duties on gold and silver from 15 per cent to 6 per cent, gold prices crashed by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the national capital on Tuesday. The precious metal prices continued the downtrend and plunged by Rs 650 on Wednesday. The yellow metal rates saw another steep fall on Thursday, nosediving by Rs 1,000 to settle at Rs 70,650 per 10 grams, as per the All India Sarafa Association. After the duty cut, the yellow metal has declined Rs 5,000 per 10 grams or 7.1% in the past three sessions, since July 23 when it had fallen Rs 3,350 to end at Rs 72,300 per kg. Also, gold of 99.5% purity declined by Rs 1,000 to Rs 70,300 per 10 grams on Thursday. It had also lost ground by Rs 5,000 per 10 grams in the previous three sessions. On Thursday, silver rates also lost ground by Rs 3,500 per kg to Rs 84,000 per kg. In the past three sessions, the rates of the bright metal fell sharply by Rs 7,000 or 8.3% to Rs 84,000 per kg from Rs 91,000 per kg. Traders also said that a sharp correction in gold prices have revived the demand for jewellery among consumers as they flocked to jewellery outlets to take advantage of lower prices. "The reduction in basic custom duties have spurted the demand for jewellery in the domestic markets. Further, this will act as a sales booster for jewellers before the festive seasons, encouraging fresh buying by the consumers due to lower prices," PC Jeweller's Managing Director Balram Garg. Low gold prices will help domestic jewellers, particularly the organised ones, Garg said. According to MP Ahammed, Chairman, Malabar Group, the reduction has been a long-standing demand of traders in the gold sector, as it is expected to curb the rampant issue of gold smuggling, which poses a substantial threat to the Indian economy. "With the new rates, the duty on one kilogram of gold drops from Rs 9.82 lakh to Rs 3.93 lakh, making smuggling less attractive and more manageable. "This move will help dismantle the mafia chain involved in smuggling, leading to growth in the organised jewellery sector and increasing government revenue through GST and income tax," Ahammed said. Meanwhile, in futures trade on the <keyword id="20316358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="multi-commodity-exchange" source="keywords">Multi Commodity Exchange</keyword> (MCX), gold futures have partially recovered on Friday, after three days of slump. The most traded August contract jumped Rs 288 to Rs 67,750 per 10 grams on the MCX. It had settled at Rs 67,462 per 10 grams in the previous session on Thursday. However, silver contracts for September delivery continued its downward trend by declining Rs 241 to Rs 81,090 per kg. It had closed at Rs 81,331 per kg in the previous session on Thursday. Experts anticipate stability in bullion prices once there is clarity on several economic and political factors such as interest rate cut by the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>. "Stability in gold prices is expected once there is clarity on several economic and political factors including, potential interest rate cuts in the US and India, and the outcome of the US Presidential elections will provide a clear direction for gold prices," Trivedi said.

Gold prices drop by Rs 5,000/10gm post Budget; bring cheers to retail investors

The pre-budget <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economic Survey" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economic Survey">Economic Survey</keyword> on Monday called for urgent reforms in India's <keyword id="19915424" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="agricultural-sector" source="keywords">agricultural sector</keyword>, warning that the structural issues could impede the country's overall <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> trajectory. The survey, tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nirmala-sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword>, highlighted the untapped potential of the <keyword id="20682012" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-agriculture" source="keywords">Indian agriculture</keyword> sector compared to other economies. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran called for a pan-India dialogue on the agriculture sector. The survey, presented ahead of the annual budget, emphasised that India has yet to fully leverage its agricultural sector for economic growth and job creation, unlike East Asian economies and Western developed nations. "Indian agriculture is not in a crisis now but requires a serious <keyword id="20544318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="structural-transformation" source="keywords">structural transformation</keyword> because climate change and water criticality loom large in the times to come," the survey stated. The CEA advocated for a reassessment of existing policies, despite current government subsidies and support measures for farmers. "The payoff will be immense if we untie the knots that bedevil farm sector policies," Nageswaran said in the survey's preface. While the government provides substantial support to farmers through subsidies on water, electricity, and fertilizers, along with income tax exemptions and minimum support prices, there is room for improvement in policy implementation, he added. The survey identified several key challenges, including balancing growth with food inflation management, improving price discovery, and addressing land fragmentation. To address these challenges, the survey recommends multi-pronged reforms, which include: upgrading agricultural technology, enhancing marketing avenues, adopting farming innovations, reducing input wastage, and improving the agriculture-industry linkages. The document stressed the need to shift focus from basic <keyword id="19992806" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-security" source="keywords">food security</keyword> to nutritional security, aligning with a 'demand-driven food system' that is both nutritious and environmentally sustainable. The survey suggested that policymakers must strike a delicate balance between incentivizing farmers to increase production and keeping food prices within acceptable limits. "This dual objective requires careful policy interventions." The survey also emphasized the need for a farmer-friendly policy framework to ensure markets function in farmers' interests. It recommended avoiding bans on futures or options markets at the first sign of price spikes; invoking bans only under exceptional circumstances; re-examining the inflation-targeting framework; increasing the total net irrigated area, and aligning farming practices with <keyword id="22505922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-considerations" source="keywords">climate considerations</keyword>. Looking ahead to 2047, the survey highlighted the potential of agriculture and allied sectors (horticulture, livestock, fisheries, dairy, and food processing) for sustained <keyword id="20268655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-generation" source="keywords">employment generation</keyword>. "To sustain growth for nearly a generation up to 2047 or more and to ensure that it makes people's lives better and fulfills their aspirations, bottom-up reforms are necessary," it noted. It suggested that India may need to reconsider the traditional development model of transitioning from agriculture to industry and services.

Economic Survey calls for urgent agricultural reforms; cites growth hurdles

The <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> presented by <keyword id="20426375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister-Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman">Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> has projected a <keyword id="19997196" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-rate" source="keywords">growth rate</keyword> of 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent further solidifying <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s strong <keyword id="20018805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic-fundamentals" source="keywords">macroeconomic fundamentals</keyword>, <keyword id="20060150" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CBRE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="CBRE" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="CBRE">CBRE</keyword> Chairman and CEO-India, South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa, <keyword id="20177586" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anshuman-Magazine" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anshuman Magazine" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Anshuman Magazine">Anshuman Magazine</keyword> said on Monday. The country's economic performance in FY'24 surpassed expectations, registering a robust growth rate of 8.2 per cent. "This momentum is noteworthy considering three out of the past four quarters exceeded the 8 per cent growth mark," he said in his reaction to the Economic Survey. <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> is anticipated to moderate around 4.5 per cent and it reflects a 'well-balanced' economic environment, he said. "The survey acknowledges the <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword>, particularly the residential segment, as a significant driver of <keyword id="20018651" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-investment" source="keywords">private investment</keyword>. The survey emphasizes the importance of continued collaboration between central and state governments, along with the private sector, to sustain this momentum," Magazine said in a statement. India's post-pandemic recovery has been orderly and expansive and it is testament to the underlying resilience of the economy, he said. "Looking ahead to FY'25, several indicators such as robust private consumption, increased bank lending activity and improved corporate capital expenditure indicate towards a good year ahead," he added.

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