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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Odds of a "no landing" scenario for the economy are rising amid continued strong economic data.</li><li>This scenario is bullish for stocks, even if it means slower rate cuts.</li></ul>As Wall Street engaged in a forecasting tug-of-war over the path of the US economy, few predicted anything other than a soft landing or a recession this year — but in the past month, a streak of hot macro data has placed a third option on the table.The "no landing" scenario entails a continued run of hot economic data and growth that boosts markets but also precludes a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve.For investors, that could mean a playbook that continues to lean into equities, with an emphasis on high dividend-yielding stocks.Soft landing? Hard landing? More like no landingInstitutions such as Bank of America and UBS have recently noted rising odds of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10">"no landing" outcome</a>. In this scenario, US growth remains stronger than estimated, keeping inflation above target and interest rates elevated.Consider the amount of positive data points that have surprised investors recently.There was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">September's blowout jobs print</a>, which showed employers added a stunning 254,000 new positions and pulled the unemployment rate down to 4.1%.Meanwhile, recent GDP and gross domestic income revisions have also been "overwhelmingly positive," BofA said, and this week's robust retail data shows that consumer spending has stayed strong, as real core control retail sales climbed 0.4%, compared to 0.1% in August and above estimates of 0.3%.<div type="image" title="Chart showing core control retail sales" height="1382" width="2368" msid="114399411" hostid="261" sizebytes="85128"></div>"This has led to fewer questions about downside risks and more on upside risks," BofA summarized in a Monday note.Reacceleration could make investors uneasy, dashing hopes for swift rate cuts from the Fed. As <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">inflation ticked up to 2.4% in September</a>, odds of an upcoming half-point <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">interest rate cut</a> have tanked, and investors see 25 basis points as the most likely move in November.According to BofA, a no-landing scenario is bullish for stocks as long as inflation doesn't flare up again.The trading playbookHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox told Business Insider that an inflation rebound is unlikely. In his view, inflation will continue to come down, allowing the Fed to lower rates gradually. Paired with strong GDP growth, investors should readjust expectations of how deep these rate cuts will be, the managing partner said.According to Cox, that means that short-term interest rates will drop to around 3% in the no landing scenario, even if long-term rates remain elevated.That's good news for equities, as it will prompt money market investors and T-bill traders to move back into the stock market, he said. As this happens, high-dividend value sectors with strong cash flows will receive a boost. These include staples, utilities, and telecom. A steepening yield curve should also benefit financials."They're not going back and buying Nvidia, that money is not going back into Apple and all that kind of stuff," Cox said, referring to go-to tech names during the rate cycle's peak. "You can see the flows of funds, you know, back into dividend-paying stocks. And that's why the market's broadening back out."Meanwhile, small caps can also expect to see upside, he said. The rate-sensitive sector has been under pressure in past years but was recently upgraded to neutral by Morgan Stanley. The bank said it would turn "outright bullish" on the sector if upward revisions to GDP continue, among other things.Whatever investors do, they shouldn't get bearish and sell.After all, a no landing scenario is the best outcome for the economy, Cox said, and given hot growth, the situation effectively tosses recession fears out the window.This would be just the fourth time in US history that the Fed has cut interest rates without a downturn, he added. In each case, markets were incredibly strong two to three years out, he said."[This scenario isn't] the base case for a lot of people who want bond yields and interest rates to drop a lot, and I think that people need to be careful about what they expect the Fed to do," the managing partner said. "The rates are not going to drop as much as what people think, and that's okay; it's actually good."

Here's the trading playbook as data piles up in support of a 'no landing' for the US economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>September trading started off with a slump as US indexes slid Tuesday morning.</li><li>Investors are bracing for key labor data to come on Friday.</li></ul>September trading kicked off with major indexes dipping as the market repositioned itself ahead of a few key data points due throughout the week.While soft landing hopes helped the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average notch their fourth-straight monthly gain at the end of August, all eyes are now on manufacturing and labor data to see whether this trend still has legs.On Tuesday, US manufacturing data will offer investors insight into how well the economy is keeping up, but the real test will follow on Friday, when August's nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release.Economists predict that US employers added 162,000 jobs last month, which suggests that the unemployment rate will back down modestly from 4.3% to 4.2%.However, if the release shows any labor deterioration that sends the unemployment rate meaningfully higher, it could force the Federal Reserve to cut by more than expected during its September 18 policy meeting. As demonstrated after July's weaker-than-expected labor data, that result could roil markets and spark fears that the US economy is slowing. What's more, September is traditionally a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-september-season-fed-cuts-election-investing-2024-8">challenging month for the stock market,</a> and investors may have to brace for more volatility ahead.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,602.97, down 0.8%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,378.55, down 0.41% (-169.39 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,473.64, down 1.32%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/commodity-bull-rally-begins-gold-oil-outlook-high-inflation-2024-8">Commodities are a better investment than bonds through the rest of this decade</a>, BofA says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/loreal-heir-richest-woman-billionaire-francoise-bettencourt-meyers-fortune-2023-12">The heir to L'oréal has become the first woman with a $100 billion fortune.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-jerome-powell-adam-posen-jackson-hole-unemployment-2024-8">Jerome Powell may regret narrowly focusing on labor during his Jackson Hole speech</a>, think tank expert says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">Russia's brain drain is the biggest issue facing its economy</a>, an economist says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil slid 2.72% to $71.66 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, dropped 2.88% to $75.29 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> stayed essentially flat at $2,495.05 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield fell five basis points to 3.854%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> inched up 0.27% to $59,256.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes fall to start September ahead of data on jobs and the economy

<ul><li><keyword id="20058929" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-Energy-Exchange" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian Energy Exchange" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Indian Energy Exchange">Indian Energy Exchange</keyword> recorded a 24% year-on-year growth in monthly volume in September 2024.</li><li>The electricity volume, including <keyword id="22675612" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-electricity" source="keywords">green electricity</keyword>, reached 10,332 MU.</li><li>India's <keyword id="20028292" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-consumption" source="keywords">energy consumption</keyword> remained relatively stable at 141.3 billion units (BUs) in September 2024.</li></ul>Indian Energy Exchange (IEX), India's leading electricity exchange, experienced significant growth in September 2024 with a record monthly volume of 11,370 MU, representing a 24% year-on-year (YoY) growth. Electricity volume, including green electricity, reached 10,332 MU, reflecting a 21% YoY increase, while <keyword id="21681994" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy-certificates" source="keywords">renewable energy certificates</keyword> (RECs) doubled to 1,031 MU compared to the same period last year. The REC market witnessed a historic low price of ₹110 per certificate during a trading session, offering a favourable opportunity for obligated entities to meet their renewable purchase obligations and for voluntary customers to achieve sustainability goals. India's energy consumption remained relatively stable at 141.3 billion units (BUs) in September 2024, according to government data. A steady monsoon boosted hydro and wind power generation, leading to reduced prices in the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) and Real-Time Market (RTM). The Day-Ahead Market (DAM) witnessed robust growth, with volumes increasing 33% YoY to 4,610 MU in September 2024. Over the quarter, DAM registered 14,332 MU, a 27% increase compared to Q2FY24. Real-Time <keyword id="22699214" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electricity-market" source="keywords">Electricity Market</keyword> (RTM) achieved its highest-ever monthly volume of 3,913 MU, a 34% YoY rise. RTM's quarterly volume reached 10,732 MU, up 31% YoY. In contrast, the Day-Ahead Contingency and Term-Ahead Market (TAM) experienced a decline, trading 1,086 MU in September 2024 and 2,684 MU during Q2FY25, down by 43% and 42% YoY, respectively. IEX's Green Market, comprising the Green Day-Ahead Market (G-DAM) and Green Term-Ahead Market (G-TAM), recorded an extraordinary 214% YoY increase, trading 723 MU in September 2024. The quarterly total for the Green Market stood at 2,584 MU, a massive 246% YoY growth. The REC market achieved a milestone with 1,031 MU traded in September 2024, a 100% YoY increase. The clearing prices for the two trading sessions on 11th and 25th September were ₹112/REC and ₹110/REC, respectively, the lowest-ever price since the market's inception. The quarterly total volume reached 6,297 MU, a remarkable 353% YoY growth. With inputs from ANI. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/september-auto-sales-automakers-report-a-decline-mahindra-and-mahindra-overtakes-tata-motors/articleshow/113925972.cms">September Auto sales – Automakers report a decline, Mahindra and Mahindra overtakes Tata Motors</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/ola-electric-continues-to-lose-market-share-as-bajaj-auto-and-tvs-motor-gain/articleshow/113900252.cms">Ola Electric continues to lose market share as Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor gain</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/airtel-is-using-ai-powered-technology-to-block-spam-calls-and-messages/articleshow/113691942.cms">Airtel is using AI-powered technology to block spam calls and messages</a>

Indian Energy Exchange records 24% growth in September 2024

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

<div type="image" title="For the unversed, trading in futures and options can be akin to setting their hard-earned money on fire" height="900" width="1200" msid="114064202" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;For the unversed, trading in futures and options can be akin to setting their hard-earned money on fire&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Once upon a time, there thrived a wild, wild land. Here, it was all about super high monetary stakes, lightning-fast trade deals, and bucketloads of money shifting hands every single second. This wilderness lured millions of individuals with the promise of super duper high returns. But, at what cost? Welcome to the unforgiving, ultra-risky wild west of <keyword id="19991165" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-equity-markets" source="keywords">Indian equity markets</keyword> called the <keyword id="145718" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Futures-and-Options" source="Orion">futures and options</keyword>. Here, everyone seems to just fly right through the bright red-flagged warnings of financial risks to earn even a fraction of these promised returns. Most burn themselves in the process, but carry on nevertheless, as if nothing ever happened. <h2>Chasing the cloudy profits</h2>The data conclusively proves that every 9 out of 10 individuals only lost their hard-earned money in this land. But hey, what do the numbers know? Some hide their losses out of shame, some out of fear. The proponents, meanwhile, proudly boast unusually high returns on their investments, some open social media channels while others encourage their friends and family to take the plunge. Naturally, news of this unstoppable and humongous en-masse migration to the F&amp;O (futures and options) town has reached sheriff <keyword id="19901201" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SEBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="SEBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="SEBI">SEBI</keyword>, galvanising them into action. After all, it was time to put a leash on this madness and save the common man. The inhabitants of this town doubled in the last 2 years, from 51 lakh in FY22 to 96 lakh in FY24—99.8% of whom were small and mid-income traders. But profits? Well, that's a different, rather completely absent story. <h2>Que Sera Sera, much?</h2>A recent report by SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) that studied profits and losses made by traders in the equity derivatives segment between FY22-24 exposed the mad mania of futures and options trading in India, especially since the pandemic. Per the report, 91.1% of individual traders, or about 73 lakh traders had only lost money trading in futures and options in FY24. Between FY 22-24, over 1 crore traders, or about 92.8% of individual traders, had lost Rs 2 lakh each. But once bitten, twice shy? Well, not in this case. More than 75% of individuals, who had only made losses trading in F&amp;O in FY22 and FY23, continued to trade vigorously in FY24 as well, without any changes in the bottom line, which remained deep in red and negative. So, then all these traders must be uber-rich, with tons of cash and not much care to spare? Nope. 76% of traders in the F&amp;O space in FY24 had an annual income of less than Rs 5 lakh. 2 years ago, their share stood at 71%. And their choice of poison? Options! In FY24, 60% of traders made losses trading in futures, but a whopping 91.5% burnt their funds trading in options. Mind you, futures are riskier than options. With futures, which require significant capital investment, the buyer and seller both are contractually bound to adhere to the pre-determined strike price of the futures or options contract, irrespective of whether the prevailing prices are higher or lower (and thus, resulting in losses for either the buyer or seller). With options, since this adherence ain't necessary, individuals end up taking debt to take highly leveraged positions while trading here. <h2>Scale of the explosion</h2>Anyone who trades even infrequently will tell you that a demat account is the mitochondria or powerhouse of the trading cell. As of August 2024, India had over 17.1 crore <keyword id="20957284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="demat-accounts" source="keywords">demat accounts</keyword>, which are a prerequisite for trading in the markets. India is the 9th biggest country in the world, in terms of total demat accounts. Did you know that our demat accounts are at par with the entire population of Bangladesh? Talk about scale! Just 4 years ago, in March 2020, this number was a mere 4 crore. Naturally, the total F&amp;O turnover on both <keyword id="20004725" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="NSE" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="NSE">NSE</keyword> and BSE has hit the roof, and also broken it. As of October 4, 2024, the total futures and options turnover on NSE stood at a massive Rs 4,78,27,27,750.30 crore. Good luck counting the thousands! <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Year </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Total Turnover (Both Futures and Options) (In Rs Crore) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2020-21 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">64,36,03,951.51 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2021-22 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,69,52,33,134.47 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2022-23 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3,82,23,26,468.06 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2023-24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7,99,27,67,152.43 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source : NSE Another metric that underlines the meteoric growth of trading in India is the collection of STT or <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Securities-Transaction-Tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword>. As of September 2024, India's STT mop-up had gone past Rs 26,000 crore. Traders have to pay STT whenever they buy or sell any security in the market. So, more trading brings in more STT, and hence, more revenue for the government, so they're not really complaining. After all, this is certainly what they'd call enviable growth. As of August 2023, our STT collection stood at about Rs 21,599 crores. And in FY20-21, India's STT collection had been Rs 16,000 crore. If only our salaries also managed to grow at this rate! <h2>So, what's happening?</h2>Two things. One, it's the big bulls who are raking in all the moolah. And it's the younger lot (those aged under 30) who are propping them up for this. In FY24, 43% of individual traders in the market were less than 30 years of age. In just one year, this number has swelled by 12 percentage points from just 31% of individual traders. But who says ageing is bad? Wrinkles and silver hair seemingly have a propensity of incurring lesser losses in the market. In FY24, only 79% of traders aged above 60 years made losses, as compared to 93% of those aged below 30. Small and mid-income traders, which make up 98% of the total trader base, witnessed average losses per person of Rs 65,000 and Rs 1.5 lakh in FY24 in futures and options, respectively. The winner here? Clearly, the big bulls, who declared an annual income of over Rs 1 crore, ended up with average profits of Rs 96,000 per person this year. <h2>What’s the sheriff up to?</h2>The government has finally swung into action, hiking the STT rate for F&amp;O during this year’s budget. Effective October 1, 2024, the STT on futures stands at 0.02%, up from 0.0125%. For options, it was upped to 0.1% versus 0.0625% previously. Small margins, but huge impact oncoming. Says Puneet Sharma- CEO and Fund Manager at Whitespace Alpha, “SEBI aims to enhance market stability while safeguarding investor interests, reflecting the regulator's intent to balance risk management with market participation”. But this might come with its own share of challenges, too. “Stricter norms around leverage, transparency, and capital adequacy could limit the ability of investors to determine their own risk appetite, thereby stifling innovation in trading strategies. Over-regulation in an environment that thrives on strategic flexibility and creativity could dampen the market’s dynamism, affecting India's competitiveness in the global derivatives landscape”, he observes. SEBI recently came out with a set of guidelines that aim to thwart <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword>' participation in futures and options and hinder them from taking undue risks. Here's a quick recap of what's to come for the residents of the F&amp;O town Margin Requirements: To battle the high volatility and chaos which is generally seen on expiry days(i.e the last mandated date, post which an option becomes invalid), SEBI will put in place an extreme loss margin (ELM) of 2% for all open short options on the day of expiry. Translation? Traders will need to pony up more cash upfront, leaving them with fewer funds to take on risky bets. It ain't a choice: No more of one expiry every single day! Going ahead, an exchange like BSE or NSE will just be able to offer weekly expiries, that too, only on one benchmark index, as opposed to an entire buffet it currently offers. At present, NSE offers weekly options contracts for its financial index, bank and midcap indices. But say goodbye to this, and hello to derivatives on only 1 index per exchange. Raising the bar: Effective November 30, 2024, the minimum contract value for index derivatives will be upped to Rs 15 lakh, from the present Rs 5-10 lakh. The hope is that by making it ultra-expensive to enter these trades, investors will be dissuaded from taking on risky trades. Pay upfront: Starting February 2025, those trading in options will have to pay the entire options premium upfront, even before their trades are executed. This is because options generally carry very high leverage, and paying a significant sum upfront can force traders to think twice. Invigilation Pro Max: Starting April 1 2025, to make sure that the number of positions for equity index derivatives does not slyly slip over the mandated limit, especially on expiry days when trade volumes are huge, the exchanges will have to take a minimum of 4 position snapshots randomly. The question is, will these injections of sobriety be enough to calm down the steroid-fed bull of the futures and options market in India? Well, only time and market turnover will tell! For more insights into the financial markets and business news, stay tuned to our site and social media handles. And don’t forget to subscribe to Business Insider India’s newsletters for your weekly dose of Simply Put! Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

SIMPLY PUT: SEBI is on a mission to take on the wild, wild west of futures and options in India. Here’s why, what, and how

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump proposed an up-to 60% tariff on imports from China and 10-20% on goods from other countries.</li><li>Trade and industry experts said the proposals would likely increase costs in areas like apparel and technology.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">has big plans for tariffs</a>. If implemented, Americans could see prices rise across several product categories.Some companies that produce apparel and auto parts have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">already started preparing to raise prices</a> if Trump enacts his plans, and some trade experts predicted that a range of industries, including electronics and appliances, would see higher prices.Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Business Insider that Trump could implement his proposed tariff on China imports quickly — within the first half of 2025 — using an authority in the Trade Act, but she said it's a possibility that the president-elect will not follow through on the 60% tariff he proposed on the campaign trail. He also proposed a 10% to 20% tariff on goods imported from other countries."Nothing is taxed at 60% right now, so every sector is vulnerable to seeing higher tariffs," Lovely said, adding that she would expect a lower tariff, like 20% or 25%. There's also the question of how much of the tariff burden will fall on consumers, Lovely said, and a lot of it depends on the mechanisms Trump uses to implement the tariffs.Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10#imported-goods">said</a> that his tariff proposals would not impact consumer prices and would serve as a tax on other countries and boost American manufacturing. The impacts of his previous tariffs were mixed. In 2018, for example, tariffs on washing machines <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/21/business/trump-tariffs-washing-machines.html">caused</a> prices to rise on laundry items. The smaller 30% to 50% tariffs on imports from China that Trump implemented in his first term were not found to be inflationary, and President Joe Biden kept most of them in place."Consumers are going to be at a burden, but it may take some time for them to feel it, like a slow drip," Lovely said.Still, Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, said it's reasonable for both companies and consumers to prepare for higher prices. He told BI that companies are already concerned."Whether it's a finished good or an input to production, anything that gets brought into the country from somewhere else is going to get hit with that tax," Gold said.When asked about tariffs' impacts on inflation, Trump's spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, "In his first term, President Trump instituted tariffs against China that created jobs, spurred investment, and resulted in no inflation."Based on analyses from economists and trade experts, here are the goods that could become more expensive for Americans under Trump's tariff proposals.<h2 id="6bd7d9e5-1349-490e-afe7-bfcfe6c706de">Apparel and shoes</h2>With Trump's proposals in place, the National Retail Federation <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://cdn.nrf.com/sites/default/files/2024-11/Estimated_Impacts_of_Proposed_Tariffs_on_Imports_11.24_0.pdf">estimated</a> that prices for apparel would increase by 12.5%, prices for footwear would increase by 18.1%, and travel goods — which include backpacks and wallets — would increase by 13%.Retailers that source more than 20% of their goods from China, including Crocs and American Eagle, are at higher risk from Trump's tariff proposals, a Bank of America research note <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/06/trump-proposed-tariffs-consumer-prices.html">said</a>. The two companies did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI on whether they are adjusting their business plans in anticipation of the tariffs.Some retailers have already announced preparations to increase prices should Trump's tariff plans go into effect. Columbia Sportswear CEO Tim Boyle said during an October earnings call that he is "very concerned about the imposition of tariffs." He later <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/30/companies-tariffs-trump-prices/">told</a> The Washington Post that the company is "set to raise prices" in response to Trump's plans.<h2 id="901a0f6a-c8c4-4040-adc4-f59680460559">Electronics</h2>An October <a target="_blank" href="https://shop.cta.tech/products/how-the-proposed-trump-tariffs-increase-prices-for-consumer-technology-products">report</a> from the Consumer Technology Association estimated that the proposed tariffs would increase laptop and tablet costs by 45%, smartphone costs by 25.8%, video game consoles by 39%, and televisions by 9%.China is a major supplier of electronic products, so everyday products that Americans use — like smartphones and laptops — would likely see price increases. The CTA report said that in 2023, China accounted for 87% of US video game console imports, 78% of smartphone imports, and 79% of laptop and tablet imports.While some companies could try to shift their production out of China, Gold said it's not an easy process."You can't change a supply chain overnight," Gold said. "It takes months, if not years, to be able to find a new vendor that you're comfortable with that can meet all of your different requirements, has the capacity, the skilled workforce, the infrastructure works within the country."<h2 id="4af3509a-5a51-43d4-a381-392f563c0881">Cars</h2>Major car companies import auto parts from China, Mexico, and Europe, and some executives have already warned that the industry would likely face higher prices under Trump's tariffs. Philip Daniele, CEO of auto-parts company AutoZone, said during a September earnings call that if Trump carries out his tariff plans, "we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer.""We generally raise prices ahead of that," Daniele said, adding that prices would settle over time. "So, that's historically what we've done."Shinji Aoyama, Honda's executive vice president, said on a November earnings call that Trump's proposals will have a "big impact" not just on Honda but on other car companies like General Motors and Ford. Still, he said he thinks it would take some time for the tariffs to be imposed, and at that point, Honda might consider moving production to a country that is not subjected to US tariffs.Lovely said that auto parts are an area where a lot of production is coming from China, so it's "very reasonable" to prepare for price increases. But shifting production would present difficulties because if Trump implements his 10% to 20% universal tariff, "you don't really know if there's any safe place," she said.<h2 id="8651f485-c0c8-4b71-a554-448306a5b630">Furniture</h2>The National Retail Federation report estimated that a 10% universal tariff and a 60% tariff on imports from China would increase furniture costs by 6.4%. Specifically, the report said a $200 crib could end up costing $213 after tariffs, and a $2,000 mattress and box spring could rise to $2,128.The NRF added in its report that the higher costs would hit low-income households the hardest: "They spend twice as much of their after-tax income on furniture as high-income households."Additionally, Henrik Elm, the CFO for Inter Ikea — the group that connects Ikea stores with suppliers — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/ikea-ready-potential-tariffs-under-trump-cfo-says-2024-11-08/">told</a> Reuters that the company is preparing for higher tariffs under Trump, saying that Ikea has worked to make its supply chain more responsive to changes."I think we are better equipped than we have been ever before," Elm said, adding that "of course we are not immune to changes."<h2 id="4b90402b-7b3d-4fb9-b4c4-8ce9e4ee75d4">Appliances</h2>NPR <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/2019/04/09/711001915/tariffs-complex-ripple-effects-hit-appliance-shoppers-and-makers">reported</a> in 2019 that Americans were seeing higher prices on appliances like washing machines after Trump implemented a 20% tariff on the product. The NRF report said it expects appliance pieces to rise again under Trump's higher tariff proposals with a 19.4% price increase on items including stoves, fridges, dishwashers, and blenders.Under the analysis, the price of a basic fridge would rise from about $650 to $776.Gold said it's unlikely Trump's tariffs would go into effect on day one or day two, and "it's tough to say right now at what point consumers would feel the impact.""It could also depend upon the individual companies and what their tariff mitigation plans are and how much they can try and lessen the impact on the consumers," Gold said. "Obviously, larger companies might have little more ability to do that than small, medium-sized folks who really can't absorb the impact of the tariff and would immediately have to pass on those costs."<h2 id="e555aa7a-b2a3-4f94-b3aa-dae3f12d768a">Groceries</h2>Trump vowed to lower grocery prices for Americans — during a town hall in September, he said he would lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to promote production in the US. However, his tariff plans could increase grocery prices.A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.thirdway.org/report/what-trumps-tariffs-mean-for-your-trip-to-the-store">report</a> from centrist think tank ThirdWay said that Trump's tariff proposals analyzed eight common purchases that the US either heavily imports or is unable to produce domestically. Using data from the International Trade Commission, the report estimated that coffee costs would rise by $0.23, frozen beef prices would rise by $1.09, and olive oil prices would rise by $0.31.Taylor Rogers, the Republican National Committee spokesperson, previously told BI that "Trump will once again cut taxes and unleash American energy to lower prices on groceries and other goods when we send him back to the White House."

From clothes to computers, 6 things expected to get more expensive if Trump's trade plans are enacted

<keyword id="19895282" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mumbai" source="keywords">Mumbai</keyword>: Rupee traded in a narrow range in morning trade on Thursday, as the support from positive <keyword id="20024980" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-equities" source="keywords">domestic equities</keyword> was negated by relentless <keyword id="20024981" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar-demand" source="keywords">dollar demand</keyword> from importers. At the <keyword id="20520118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interbank-foreign-exchange-market" source="keywords">interbank foreign exchange market</keyword>, the local unit opened at 83.93 and fell to 83.95, registering a loss of 5 paise from its previous close. On Wednesday, the Indian rupee fell 13 paise to 83.90 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword>. "The rupee's ongoing decline has been fuelled by a growing trade deficit and relentless dollar demand from importers, placing it under significant pressure," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further noted that "the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> is expected to step in to prevent the rupee from breaching the critical 84.00 threshold. The market anticipates that the central bank might sell USD to maintain stability. Additionally, the recent dip in crude oil prices to around USD 75.48 per barrel could offer the rupee some much-needed relief." Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.17 per cent to 101.21 points. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was 0.01 per cent up at USD 76.06 per barrel in futures trade, Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes revealed that most officials are inclined towards a rate cut in September, provided inflation continues to cool. This has increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, putting downward pressure on the US dollar and offering some support to the rupee. Now, all eyes will turn to the Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks could set the tone for global currency markets, Pabari said. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex gained 166.66 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 81,071.96 points, while the Nifty increased by 55.10 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 24,825.30 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 799.74 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee trades in narrow range against US dollar in early trade

Mumbai: The rupee slipped 1 paisa to an all-time low of 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as persistent <keyword id="20520117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-outflows" source="keywords">foreign fund outflows</keyword> and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit. Forex traders said the USDINR pair has shown significant volatility in recent sessions, with the rupee inching closer to its all-time low of 84.40. This downward pressure is largely driven by global factors, particularly the Dollar Index's strengthening. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee fell 1 paisa to a new lifetime low of 84.39 against the US dollar. "It appears that the rupee has established support around the current levels, with depreciation limited near 84.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the RBI stands tall as the depreciation in the rupee seems to be limited as the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) continues to sell the dollars to protect the sharp depreciation. "For the 5th consecutive week, India's forex reserves declined, possibly due to RBI selling the dollars. Currently, the forex reserves of India stand at USD 682 billion down from the recent all-time high of USD 704 billion," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04 per cent at 105.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.25 per cent to USD 72.07 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 210.66 points, or 0.27 per cent lower, to 78,464.52 points. The Nifty fell 100.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 23,783.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 3,024.31 crore, according to exchange data. On the macroeconomic front, retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. India's industrial production expanded by 3.1 per cent in September after recording a contraction in the preceding month, as all three major segments -- mining, manufacturing, and power generation -- showed improvement. However, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) during the month was lower than 6.4 per cent registered in September 2023.

Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian imports of goods from China surged in September.</li><li>A new trade agreement between Russia and China was finalized in late August.</li></ul>Russia's imports of goods from China increased sharply last month, a sign that Moscow is leaning more heavily on Beijing after the two countries affirmed their economic ties.China exported around 80 billion yuan worth of goods to Russia in the month of <a target="_blank" href="http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/2c024a8b-3aea-4f87-a405-046557ad558f.html">September</a>, a 9% increase from the 73 billion yuan worth of goods it exported the prior month, according to Chinese customs data published on Tuesday. That's larger than the increase recorded over the last several months, with Chinese exports to Russia rising 3% in <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/21dcbdc9-a5c7-4ce5-8884-d45f6ab35488.html">August</a> and 1% in <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/672cd557-3c4e-48bb-8e7c-40cc02a20c7e.html">July</a>.The surge of trading activity follows a fresh <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/europe/china-li-qiang-russia-belarus-trip-intl-hnk/index.html">cooperation agreement</a> Russia and China finalized in late August, which vowed, among other things, to deepen trade ties. The deal reaffirmed the "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-putin-china-trade-partnership-economy-moscow-beijing-2024-4">no limits</a>" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/moscow-beijing-partnership-has-no-limits-2022-02-04/">partnership</a> Moscow and Bejing have sought to expand since 2022, which took both country's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">trade with one another to a fresh record</a> last year."Our trade relations are not only developing but flourishing, thanks in part to the efforts of our Chinese friends," Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a meeting with China's premier, Li Qiang, per a Kremlin <a target="_blank" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74910">transcript</a> of the event. "The attention and commitment shown by both governments towards the development of trade and economic relations have yielded positive results."Total trade between Russia and China notched 1.28 trillion yuan from the start of the year through September, up 3.5% from the same period last year, customs data shows.Moscow has grown more reliant on Beijing as an economic partner since being targeted by Western sanctions in 2022. Trade restrictions from the West have pushed Russia into an increasingly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-putin-moscow-budget-isolation-west-sanctions-2023-12">isolated position</a> in global markets, economists say, with countries like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-russia-china-barter-trade-us-secondary-sanctions-payments-2024-8">China</a> and India among the nation's small circle of major trading partners.Russia's trade with China has stumbled recently, however, due to payment issues abroad. In August, most Chinese banks were reportedly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">refusing to process payments from Russia</a> after the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on institutions helping Russia continue to do business and fund its war in Ukraine.

Russia's imports from China surged in September as Moscow and Beijing deepen economic ties  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks were mixed on Monday. Nvidia stock continued to move lower following a big rally last week. </li><li>With earnings season over, it's a quiet week on the macro front for investors.</li></ul>US stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors gear up for a new set of inflation data later in the week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded higher, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were slightly lower, led by a continued pause in the AI trade with Nvidia shares down about 2% to $123.88."Some profit-taking seems entirely reasonable given NVIDIA's meteoric rise. The stock was up over 180% this year alone. But if it continues to lose ground, then there's a danger of contagion, with selling spreading to other big tech names. If that were the case, then the market could be in for a deeper and more protracted pull-back," Trade Nation senior market analyst David Morrison said.With earnings season over, investors will turn their attention to the PCE inflation data set to be released on Friday, which happens to be the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.Economists expect year-over-year Core PCE to be 2.6% in May, compared to April's reading of 2.7%.Investors will also keep an eye on initial jobless claims data, pending home sales, and a second revision to first-quarter GDP, all of which should help determine just how strong the US economy really is.All of this data will help inform investors as to when the Fed might launch its first interest rate cut of the cycle, with markets expecting the first rate cut to occur in September.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,462.14, down 0.03% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,219.26, up 0.18% (+68.93 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,652.33, down 0.22% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-consumer-spending-hard-landing-inflation-slowdown-2024-6">American's spending patterns are flashing a warning of a possible consumer-led recession.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-8000-bull-rally-ed-yardeni-2024-6">Market veteran Ed Yardeni reiterated his view that the S&amp;P 500 will surge to 8,000 by the end of the decade.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/used-electric-vehicles-price-crash-gas-cars-ev-demand-tesla-2024-6">Used electric vehicle prices are plunging as buyers shift back to hybrid vehicles.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 0.46% to $80.36 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was declined by 0.45% to $84.86 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged higher by 0.36% to $2,339.60 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.25%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> dropped 3.10% to $61,220.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed as investors gear up for more inflation data this week

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were mixed on Monday as investors await third-quarter earnings from major companies.</li><li>Investors will monitor retail sales and jobless claims data this week.</li></ul>US stocks were mixed on Monday as investors await a wave of third-quarter earnings results this week.More than 40 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> companies are set to report results this week, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nflx-stock">Netflix</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/ms-stock">Morgan Stanley</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs.</a>According to data from Fundstrat, 6% of S&amp;P 500 companies have already reported their results. Of those companies, 74% beat profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 58% beat revenue estimates by a median of 2%.It's a relatively muted week on the economic data front, with investors likely to focus on the Thursday releases of September retail sales and initial jobless claims.Both data points will give investors insights into the health of the consumer and job market, respectively.There is also some Fedspeak this week, with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller scheduled to speak at 3 p.m. today, followed by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler on Tuesday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,836.88, up 0.38%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,762.38, down 0.24% (-101.48 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,475.06, up 0.72%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">It's the first day for Nike's new CEO, Elliott Hill, who started working at the company as an intern in 1988.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-supply-opec-cuts-2024-10">Saudi Arabia could create a crisis for Russia's economy by flooding the market with oil.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">The bull market in stocks is 2 years old. Here's what tends to happen next.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was down 1.93% to $74.10 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 1.81% to $77.61 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was down 0.41% to $2,665.20 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.105%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was higher by 2.96% to $64,715.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors await wave of earnings results

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Thursday. </li><li>Nvidia added to gains a day after it rallied to become the world's second-most-valuable company. </li></ul>US stocks were mixed on Thursday as the market struggled for direction a day after Nvidia's record-setting gain and ahead of a highly anticipated nonfarm payroll report for May.The number of people in the US filing for unemployment benefits rose to about a four-week high last week, with jobless claims clocking in at 229,000. While that's higher than estimates, it is still historically low, pointing to continued strength in the labor market amid the lowest unemployment rate in decades.On Friday, investors will get a fuller picture of the labor market with the May nonfarm payroll report. Expectations are for employers to have added 175,000 jobs last month, about in line with April's reading.Rate cuts bets have edged up in the wake of data pointing to a cooler job market, and Friday's report will be key in laying the groundwork for potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">Fed fund futures are pricing in</a> the first rate cut in September, though commentators have said in the last week that July may be back on the table if inflation cooperates in the next several consumer price index reports.Nvidia shares extended gains from Wednesday's session, when the chip maker rallied more than 5% to become the second most valuable company in the world, shooting past Apple and behind only Microsoft by market cap. Nvidia closed Wednesday with a market valuation of $3.01 trillion.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,355.23, up 0.1%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 38,921.89, up 0.3% (113 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,173.87, down 0.1%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li>The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 and upped its inflation forecast for this year and for 2025.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-soft-landing-outlook-recession-inflation-unemployment-jobs-2024-6?_gl=1*s4tyb2*_ga*Mzg2NTEyNjQzLjE3MDU0OTc0MjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxNzY3NjY1OC41NzAuMS4xNzE3Njc4MTMwLjYwLjAuMA..">It looks like the US economy is going to stick the soft landing.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-record-100000-mike-novogratz-cryptocurrency-regulation-trump-policy-2024-6">Crypto bull Mike Novogratz thinks warmer political attitudes toward bitcoin will send the token to $100,000 this year</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-warning-signs-signals-ai-stocks-earnings-profits-2024-6">There are eight signs a bubble is forming in the market, and stocks have already flashed six of them, UBS says.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures rose<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">. West Texas Intermediate</a> crude was up 0.6% to $74.56 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 0.5%, trading at $78.79 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged up to $2,376 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.312%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged up 0.1% to $71.058.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US indexes trade mixed as Nvidia extends rally and investors assess jobs data      

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stock index trades were mixed Tuesday morning.</li><li>Estimate-beating earnings from three banks set a positive tone on Tuesday.</li></ul>Stocks were mixed Tuesday morning as traders assessed the latest earnings, though several results before the bell helped strike a positive tone in early trading.A trio of Wall Street banks — Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America — all topped third-quarter estimates, potentially giving more firepower to this week's rally.Stocks notched a winning session on Monday that drove the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> to record closing highs. Estimate-beating reports from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo last week are also helping drive bullish momentum, though gains were more muted as trade kicked off on Tuesday. International oil prices were down sharply, with Brent crude falling 4.27% to $74.15.Though Middle Eastern tensions sparked a rush in oil prices this month, the market's depreciation follows reports that Israel will limit its retaliation against an earlier Iranian missile strike.While earnings will be this week's focal point, investors will also watch for September's retail sales and initial jobless claims to release on Thursday. Among Fed commentary, governor Adriana Kugler and president Mary Daly will speak on Tuesday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,864.41, up 0.08%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,791.76, down 0.63% (-273.46 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,534.01, up 0.14%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/financial-stocks-bank-cyclicals-investment-advise-jobs-data-morgan-stanley-2024-10?_gl=1*co3rbk*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk1OTI5LjYwLjAuMA..">Financial stocks are being woefully underappreciated by investors</a>, Morgan Stanley says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crash-collapse-black-swan-nassim-taleb-bubble-2024-10?_gl=1*l21opq*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk2MDU3LjEwLjAuMA..">Risk of collapse looms as markets are the most fragile in 20 years</a>, says "Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-risk-soft-landing-labor-unemployment-rate-consumer-confidence-2024-10">The US risks being caught off-guard by a recession</a>, Paul Dietrich says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-waller-rate-cuts-easing-hot-economy-monetary-policy-2024-10">Fed Governor Waller wants "more caution" on Fed rate cuts as economic data stays hot.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overvalued-sp500-bullish-earnings-momentum-rally-valuations-2024-10?_gl=1*1vwi8z1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk2NTMxLjYwLjAuMA..">The stock market is overvalued by 8%, but Piper Sandler says that's no reason to sell</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 4.19% to $70.73 a barrel.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 3.92% to $74.41 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was nearly flat at $2,666.4 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield slid two basis points to 4.049%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> was inched 0.07% lower to $65,918.</li></ul>

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