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The ongoing <keyword id="20168812" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sell-off" source="keywords">sell-off</keyword> by <keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">foreign investors</keyword> continues to loom large on <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword>. In October so far, <keyword id="19950996" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="FIIs" source="keywords">FIIs</keyword> (foreign institutional investors) have already withdrawn Rs 74,732.20 crores. Not for a single day this month have FIIs poured money into <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>. The sell-off started on October 1, when foreign investors withdrew Rs 5,579.35 crore. The highest withdrawal of this month came on October 3. 2024, when FIIs sold Rs 15,243.27 crore worth of assets. Yesterday, i.e. on October 17th, FIIs pulled out Rs 7,421.40 crore from the markets. Experts state that FIIs are continuously putting pressure on Indian stocks, but the situation is expected to improve in the coming weeks with a sharp recovery anticipated. "We remain optimistic as the FII selling may have crossed the half way mark already and as it tones down, the domestic flows will help a recovery. When the recovery happens it will sharp and concentrated, giving long term investors motivation to stay put during the harrowing volatility of a roller coaster market that has repeatedly tested support levels but remains oversold, hence ripe for a bounce sometime in the next few weeks" said Ajay Bagga, Banking and Market Expert to ANI. Between January and October 2024, foreign investors have invested a net of 1,87,298 crore in India. This year, apart from the current sell-off, January, April and May also saw <keyword id="23593694" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-outflows" source="keywords">investment outflows</keyword> by FIIs. The intense selloff comes right after September, when foreign investors invested a record Rs 93,538 crore in the Indian markets. June, July and August 2024 had also seen positive inflows from foreign investors of about Rs 41,757 crore, Rs 48,796 crore and Rs 25,493 crore respectively. However, a resilient, strong domestic investor base is keeping Indian markets afloat. <keyword id="21714171" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="DIIs" source="keywords">DIIs</keyword> (domestic institutional investors) have been consistent buyers throughout this month, largely balancing the outflows prompted by FIIs. In October so far, DIIs have invested about Rs 68,961.37 crore in the market, with the highest monthly inflow coming in on October 7th. While DIIs invested Rs 13,245.12 crore in Indian markets on that day, foreign investors withdrew Rs 8,293.41 crore. Yesterday i.e. on October 17, 2024, DIIs invested Rs 4,979.83 crore in the markets. At present, experts note that DIIs are flush with cash at the moment, with <keyword id="20052797" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-fund-inflows" source="keywords">mutual fund inflows</keyword> reaching an all-time high of Rs 24,509 crore in September 2024, a record 52.78% jump from the corresponding year ago period, where they stood at Rs 16,042 crore. Generally, keeping around 3-5% of their assets in cash is considered an acceptable practice amongst mutual fund houses. As per reports, mutual funds are currently in possession of Rs 1.86 lakh crore worth of cash, which constitutes 5.03% of their total AUM as of September 2024.

Exodus of foreign investors from Indian markets continues unabated in October. But DIIs are holding the fort steady

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

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Exodus of foreign investors from Indian markets continues unabated in October. But DIIs are holding the fort steady

Ira Alok Puranik

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Ira Alok Puranik

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