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<ul class="summary-list"><li>While many tech VCs are optimistic about Trump's second term, some healthcare investors feel stuck.</li><li>They're torn between the promise of long-awaited exits and potential threats to healthcare access.</li></ul>Some healthcare-focused VCs are torn about what Donald Trump's presidential win could mean for their portfolios.Six healthcare investors expressed mixed feelings about Trump's win — largely rooted in a tension they feel between the potential for big deals to come back and policies that fear could restrict healthcare access to many patients.Trump could make sweeping changes to healthcare policy in his return to the presidency. He's said he'll let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "go wild" on health initiatives in the new administration, which could see the former presidential candidate making good on his desires to <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1852812012478398923">ban fluoride from public water systems</a>, "<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1852872924170010840">get toxins out of our food</a>," and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/conormurray/2024/11/06/heres-what-an-rfk-jr-health-role-in-a-trump-administration-could-look-like-vaccine-skepticism-fluoride-ban/">inject vaccine skepticism into federal decisionmaking</a>, among other initiatives.While Trump is unlikely to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/aca-trump-repeal-affordable-care-act/index.html">try again</a> to repeal the Affordable Care Act, he may seek to boost Medicare Advantage plans, cut Medicaid spending, and <a target="_blank" href="https://spectrumnews1.com/wi/madison/news/2024/11/07/trump-rfk-fda-cdc-vaccines-fluoride">reorganize federal agencies,</a> from the Food and Drug Administration to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to an interview Kennedy Jr. gave from Trump's Florida estate shortly after the election.After a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-healthcare-ipos-coming-what-startups-should-know-barclays-banker-2024-10">three-year IPO desert</a> for digital health startups, healthcare investors are desperate for the exit opportunities that a second Trump presidency could usher in. But some of Trump's proposed health policy moves are making investors nervous about their potential impacts on startups building in care areas like women's health and Medicaid, as well as on doctors and patients.Compared to Trump's first term, "I think you're going to see a more systemic overhaul of the infrastructure that administers our healthcare system, and that could happen relatively quickly," said Michael Greeley, cofounder and managing partner of Flare Capital Partners. "It's the unknown of those moves that makes it really hard to make a long-term investment decision."<div type="image" title="RFK Jr. speaks at a Trump rally as Trump watches." height="683" width="1024" msid="115114971" hostid="261" sizebytes="60192"></div><h2 id="cadda1d2-41e5-4dcc-8fbd-97541af9ac1a">Healthcare exits on the horizon</h2>In the three years since 2021's healthcare funding boom — during which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rockhealth.com/insights/2021-year-end-digital-health-funding-seismic-shifts-beneath-the-surface/#:~:text=And%20while%20some%20of%20the,peak%20of%20eight%20in%202020.">21</a> healthcare startups went public — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-omada-health-confidentially-filed-s1-ipo-public-2024-10">only four</a> digital health startups have gone public in total, with mixed success.A number of healthtech startups have been waiting on the sidelines for their chance to IPO — and Trump's election should boost their odds, healthcare investors told BI.The lower corporate taxes and deregulation a second Trump term could promise are already amplifying public market optimism. A number of tech and finance giants, from Tesla to JP Morgan Chase, saw their stocks soar Wednesday morning. By midday Friday, the S&amp;P 500 index had risen 3.6% from Tuesday's close.Some startups, including physical therapy startup <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hinge-health-s-1-morgan-stanley-ipo-2024-9">Hinge Health </a>and diabetes startup <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-omada-health-confidentially-filed-s1-ipo-public-2024-10">Omada Health, have already signaled their intentions to IPO when the digital health markets reopen.</a>Several other late-stage startups are moving towards the exits, too. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mavens-cfo-out-as-womens-health-startup-gets-fresh-funding-2024-10">Maven replaced its chief financial officer</a> in October with an executive with public market experience, BI reported. Sword Health has said it's planning to IPO <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/pro/health-tech-deals/2024/06/04/sword-healths-road-to-ipo">as soon as the second half of 2025</a>.<div type="image" title="Sean Duffy Omada" height="1880" width="2507" msid="115114964" hostid="261" sizebytes="278880"></div>The healthcare M&amp;A market looks ripe for more activity. Big deals could be on the horizon, including the proposed mega-merger of health insurance rivals Cigna and Humana. Bloomberg reported in October that the insurers had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-18/cigna-resumes-merger-discussions-with-humana-after-talks-ended-last-year">resumed talks of combining</a> after previously shelving the deal last December.The Cigna-Humana merger was expected to face significant antitrust scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openness-in-ai-is-necessary-ftc-lina-khan-2024-7">led by Lina Khan</a> since 2021. She could be removed as the FTC's head early in Trump's second term — and with relaxed M&amp;A regulations, "anything is possible," said What If Ventures founder Stephen Hays.Investors said they also expect to see <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-deals-coming-healthcare-startups-take-privates-private-equity-2024">increased private equity involvement in healthcare</a> through more investments and acquisitions. Healthcare VC has been calling for consolidation in overcrowded areas of healthcare <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/13-mental-health-startups-ipo-acquisition-merge-buyout-2024-5">like behavioral health</a> for years. Additional interest rate cuts could help facilitate PE-backed mergers, or even rollups of multiple solutions, in the many fragmented areas of digital health and healthcare services, said a Boston-based healthcare investor.<div type="image" title="Cigna insurance" height="2672" width="3563" msid="115114973" hostid="261" sizebytes="1378900"></div><h2 id="8fd35f3b-b1b9-4ac8-ab08-0143afe9541f">Reverberations in women's health and Medicaid</h2>While healthcare investors remain optimistic about what a second Trump term could mean for late-stage startups, VCs said his win could have consequences for key areas of the industry.Reproductive rights remained a top concern throughout the election cycle. Founders of women's health companies and their investors previously expressed concerns to Business Insider about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/womens-health-startups-risk-trump-wins-election-2024-10">what a second Trump term could mean for their businesses</a>.While Trump has said he wouldn't sign off on a national abortion ban, experts have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/how-trumps-victory-could-change-abortion-rights-in-america.html">raised worries</a> that the president-elect could impose more restrictions on birth control access and abortion pills delivered by mail. Demand for abortion pills, emergency contraception, and related treatments <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/07/abortion-pills-hormones-trump">exploded on Wednesday</a> as patients rushed to stockpile the drugs in fear of potential restrictions.In the wake of the election, women's health investors are dismayed but hopeful that the sector will largely remain untouched by federal policy changes and that VCs will be able to use their capital to push care forward even in the face of policy threats."In our conversations with others, there is a shared resoluteness to continue to pledge investment and develop innovation in historically underfunded categories (e.g. contraception &amp; abortion access, menstruation &amp; hormonal health, maternal health &amp; fertility, menopause &amp; aging)," said Carli Sapir, the founding partner of Amboy Street Ventures, in an email to Business Insider. "Every dollar and ounce of effort toward these areas now speaks volumes for future impact."<div type="image" title="an abortion rights protest sign reading &quot;stars, stripes and reproductive rights&quot;" height="683" width="911" msid="115114963" hostid="261" sizebytes="45906"></div>Medicaid could also be targeted in Trump's second term. Experts think Trump could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/millions-risk-losing-health-insurance-trumps-victory-rcna179146">cut Medicaid funding</a> and enable states to refuse to expand their Medicaid coverage. Those changes could impact dozens of <a target="_blank" href="https://rockhealth.com/insights/unwinding-the-opportunity-medicaids-digital-health-moment/">startups innovating in Medicaid</a>, as well as the millions of patients covered under Medicaid plans, said Jordan Nof, a cofounder and managing partner at Tusk Venture Partners.And if the House of Representatives goes red along with the Senate, experts expect the subsidies that help people pay for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/millions-risk-losing-health-insurance-trumps-victory-rcna179146">to disappear after they expire at the end of 2025</a>. Without those subsidies, tens of millions of people will see their premiums significantly increase, potentially making coverage prohibitively expensive for many.If fewer patients can afford to be insured, the healthcare system is certain to see <a target="_blank" href="https://www.kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/key-facts-about-the-uninsured-population/#:~:text=Because%20people%20without%20health%20coverage,declines%20in%20their%20overall%20health.">rising spend</a> associated with increased hospitalizations from otherwise avoidable health problems — a consequence with far-reaching implications across healthcare and the companies building in the sector.<h2 id="f1af4c00-342b-4f1b-b392-ccfc3d9c72fa">A boon for healthcare AI and Medicare Advantage</h2>Trump's victory could have a positive impact on several big areas of healthcare investment.For one, Trump is expected to restrict the government's involvement in AI regulation. That means AI companies, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/22-most-promising-healthcare-ai-startups-2024-8">including healthcare AI companies, will keep soaring</a> with fewer guardrails.Without federal AI safety efforts, the healthcare industry will likely move to self-regulate new technologies, especially in more contentious areas like clinical decision support, Flare Capital Partners' Greeley said. Some of those efforts are already underway, including by groups like the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/future-pulse/2024/10/18/ai-self-regulation-comes-into-view-00184268">Coalition for Health AI</a>, which includes top academic medical centers like Mayo Clinic and Johns Hopkins Speaker alongside tech companies like Microsoft.Still, "there'll be temptations around the margins to more rapidly deploy technologies that aren't yet determined to be safe," Greeley said.<div type="image" title="Dr. Shiv Rao, CEO of Abridge" height="2268" width="3024" msid="115114962" hostid="261" sizebytes="233874"></div>Medicare Advantage plans are also expected to be boosted by a returning Trump administration that's likely to move to further incentivize commercial health insurance. That could be good for the few <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alignment-healthcare-devoted-health-startups-medicare-advantage-membership-market-2024-2">young insurers clamoring for market share in Medicare Advantage</a>, like Devoted Health and Alignment Healthcare, and the many startups working to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-ai-cohere-health-raises-50-million-series-b-extension-2024-1">improve payment processes</a> between insurers and providers. (An increased share of Medicare Advantage plans in the Medicare market might not be good for patients, however, since Medicare Advantage plans <a target="_blank" href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2815743">deny claims more frequently</a> than traditional Medicare.)And while Robert F. Kennedy Jr's potential appointment to a key health role in the Trump administration <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/health-officials-concerned-about-rfk-jr-s-influence-in-trump-administration">worries some healthcare experts</a>, his focus on "food as medicine" could yield some interesting federal projects and perhaps add momentum to the <a target="_blank" href="https://rockhealth.com/insights/an-apple-a-day-but-keep-the-doctor-in-play-a-primer-on-food-as-medicine-trends-solutions-and-business-models/">nutrition startups gaining traction</a>, said Chrissy Farr, a managing director at Manatt, Phelps and Phillips, and a general partner at Scrub Capital."He's been given carte blanche, apparently, to take this on. Coupled with GLP-1s, I could see America really doing something interesting around food in the next couple of years," Farr said.

Healthcare investors are torn on Trump's second term

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Democrats hope blue states can be the party's redoubt against Trump's second term.</li><li>Democrats will be in the minority in both houses of Congress in January 2025.</li></ul>With Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential election loss, President Joe Biden leaving the White House in January, and Democrats looking ahead to life in a Senate chamber that they'll no longer control, the new year will bring a new reality: the party's power in Washington, DC will be diminished.A newly empowered Donald Trump, meanwhile, is aiming to reshape the federal government to a degree that he failed to achieve in his first term. He's assembling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11">an array of loyalists</a> to help further his goals on everything from immigration to foreign policy.Early in Trump's first presidency, protests against his administration were common in Washington and other cities. And as Trump's first term progressed, Democrats remained laser-focused on opposing him. The party harnessed that energy to retake the House in 2018, win back the presidency in 2020, and flip the Senate in 2021.But this time, the Democratic Party appears to be coalescing around a revised strategy.Democratic officials and activists are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/16/us/politics/democrats-anti-trump-battle-plan.html">hoping blue states</a> can be the center of opposition to the president-elect, The New York Times reported. From abortion rights to paid leave, the party sees its Democratic strongholds as bulwarks against Trump, especially with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-supreme-court-conservatives-election-2024-11">the US Supreme Court</a> dominated by conservative jurists.Democrats are also building up a legal operation to challenge the new administration, according to the Times. The newspaper reported that advocacy groups are rallying hundreds of attorneys to fight Trump's agenda from the start of the president-elect's second term.Skye Perryman, the CEO of Democracy Forward, a nonprofit organization created after Trump's win in 2016, told the Times that challenges to the president-elect will be different in his second term."Resistance this time is a lot more about collective power building," she said. "It's using the law and using litigation."Democrats are also already looking ahead to the 2028 election.While Democrats are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-democrats-suburban-voters-unions-2024-11">still smarting over Harris' loss</a> — and trying to assess how their party can reverse electoral gains that Trump made with working-class voters — many of the party's crop of governors have emerged as potential 2028 contenders.Democrats occupy 23 of the nation's 50 governorships, which will remain unchanged at the beginning of the year. Some of them — like Govs. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gavin-newsom-california-gubernatorial-recall-election-landslide-win-2021-9">Gavin Newsom</a> of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan — have long been considered White House aspirants.For Democrats, the focus on states will give many of these leaders a platform as Trump aims to enact a conservative agenda in a nation that remains politically divided. Harris easily won California and Illinois in the general election, but she lost Michigan — a state that for years had been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">part of the party's vaunted blue wall</a> — by about 1.4 points.After the election, Newsom called a special session, which will begin on December 2 in Sacramento, to boost the state's legal resources to challenge the incoming administration on issues like abortion, civil rights, climate regulations, and immigration.Pritzker <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2024/11/07/pritzker-donald-trump-second-term-defend-illinois-remarks">pledged to work</a> with the Trump administration but also called himself a "warrior" for his state."To anyone who intends to come take away the freedom, opportunity, and dignity of Illinoisans, I would remind you that a happy warrior is still a warrior," the governor, now in his second term, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/GovPritzker/status/1854686495975551159">wrote on X</a>. "You come for my people — you come through me."Meanwhile, Whitmer reiterated that she worked with Trump during her first term and would find a way to do so again."We'll figure out how to work with a Trump administration into this last two years of my term," she told reporters after the election.

Democrats are hoping blue states can hold the line in their battle against Trump's second-term agenda

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump is wasting no time planning his second administration.</li><li>He already has unveiled more than half a dozen Cabinet-level picks.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump is wasting little time <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11">staffing his second administration.</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11"> </a>His early picks show he prizes loyalty after a tumultuous first term filled with Cabinet secretaries who either resigned or were dismissed for defying Trump too often.As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump has vastly exceeded the pace he rolled out nominations following his 2016 upset win. He has already announced the intent to nominate seven Cabinet-level positions, including his Defense secretary (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-pentagon-pick-pete-hegseth-criticized-us-involvement-ukraine-aid-2024-11">Pete Hegseth</a>); White House chief of staff (Susie Wiles); Homeland Security secretary (Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota); and EPA administrator (former Congressman Lee Zeldin). "There is emphasis on alignment with the president both personally and policy-wise, so people who have taken the effort to publicly back the president-elect personally," David E. Lewis, a Vanderbilt University political science professor who studies presidential appointments, told Business Insider.Lewis added that Trump, no longer a political neophyte, now has a "deeper pool" of allies to draw on."One of the problems he had in the first term was that people he selected wouldn't do the things he wanted them to do in the administration for a variety of reasons, and I think he has learned this go around how to avoid that," Lewis said.<div type="image" title="Pete Hegseth" height="2314" width="3535" msid="115268550" hostid="261" sizebytes="453984"></div>Wiles, who co-led <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">Trump's 2024 campaign</a>, has decades of political experience and will make history as the first woman to serve as gatekeeper to a president. She has never served in Congress or senior White House roles before, something virtually all of her predecessors had their resumes.Chris Whipple, who wrote a book about White House chiefs of staff, said Wiles is a "logical choice" who brings some strengths. Whipple has been unsparing in his criticism of Mark Meadows, Trump's final chief of staff, whose "sycophantic" nature exacerbated Trump's worst impulses."She has demonstrated that she can work with, I would never say manage Donald Trump, but she can work with him without getting fired," Whipple told Business Insider. "She has demonstrated that she is able to tell hard truths from time to time."Whipple said the one drawback with Wiles is her lack of experience. Most of Trump's top picks thus far lack conventional experience for their roles.Zeldin served in the House for eight years but never sat on committees overseeing environmental policy. Noem's entire state has a budget ($7.3 billion) eight times smaller than the sprawling Homeland Security Department (over $60 billion), which includes more than 230,000 employees. Hegseth, a decorated veteran, has never led anything near the size of the Defense Department, which is the nation's largest employer and boasts over a $800 billion budget.Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida brings arguably the most experience to his role as national security advisor with nearly six years in Congress, a brief stint at the Pentagon, and time in the Bush administration. In announcing Waltz's elevation, Trump indicated he would make the current congressman a Cabinet-level official.Waltz showed the extent of his loyalty to Trump by co-sponsoring legislation to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/house-republicans-rename-dulles-airport-trump-2024-4">rename Washington, D.C.'s DC's Dulles International Airport after Trump.</a><h2 id="9689a433-fd83-468e-a586-dffbd29f7032">A different second term</h2>Trump has said he would staff his administration differently this time."The advantage I have now is I know everybody. I know people. I know the good, the bad, the stupid, the smart," Trump told Time Magazine in April. "I know everybody. When I first got to Washington, I knew very few people."Turnover during the first Trump administration was especially prevalent at the Pentagon, which saw five different leaders in either acting or full capacity in four years.With this lens, Hegseth's forthcoming nomination stands out. Hegseth, a Fox News host, served in the Army National Guard after graduating from Princeton. His lack of ties to the national security establishment is one of his supporters' biggest selling points."The times are perilous, and our national-security establishment needs a jolt to its system," John Noonan, conservative commentator and former top advisor to Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, wrote in The National Review. "I think Pete can be that jolt."<h2 id="a41d84c8-5f87-486e-b5aa-e696613cf081"></h2>

Trump's early Cabinet picks show how much he values loyalty in his second term

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Citi has spent more than $7.4 billion to make peace with regulators and hasn't succeeded.</li><li>Donald Trump's election and promise of deregulation bode well for the bank.</li></ul>Donald Trump's presidential victory and his promise of light regulation could help relieve one of Citi's biggest problems. Trump's reelection on Wednesday already boosted the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">bank's stock</a> by 8.4%.Citi has been in hot water with regulators since 2020, paying a total of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/citigroup-slammed-400-mln-fine-longstanding-deficiencies-regulation-occ-fed-2020-10-1029660295?_gl=1*160cwwk*_ga*MTM0NTA0MDc3NC4xNjA5MzYwMzUx*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDkyNjYzMy4xNzQ4LjEuMTczMDkyNzg5Ny4zNi4wLjA.">$400 million in fines</a> for poor data management and risk controls. The bank was slapped with<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-jane-fraser-regulatory-citigroup-transformation-2024-7"> $135.6 million in fines</a> in July for failing to make enough progress to satisfy the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The delay is despite Citi spending more than $7.4 billion and allocating 13,000 employees to a firmwide <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-anand-selva-transformation-consent-orders-fines-2024-10">"Transformation" initiative</a> to rectify the issues.Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo called Trump's win a "regulatory game changer" in a research note. He told Business Insider that Citi is still in "regulatory purgatory" but that the bank would likely face less scrutiny for its data quality issues."With a fresh look with a new set of regulators, I do think it makes a difference that the recent regulatory actions did not involve clients," he said. "This is more about Citi doing what it's supposed to do with its regulators as opposed to fixing any new issues with customers."Mayo thought it was unlikely for the agencies to rescind their demands altogether but that the new restrictions in July might be unwound. For instance, the OCC has required Citi to submit plans each quarter to ensure they are allocating enough resources to the Transformation effort.While Trump has not announced a formal policy on how he would regulate Wall Street, he has signaled he would cut down on oversight. In a speech at the Economic Club of New York in September, he pledged if re-elected, he would eliminate 10 rules for each new rule introduced.A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-win-senate-election-majority-election-2024-11">Republican majority</a> in the Senate has also paved the way for new agency appointments. Michael Hsu, the current head of the OCC, has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/speeches/2023/pub-speech-2023-7.pdf">said</a> that large banks that fail to manage risk effectively should be broken up as a last resort. Trump has openly criticized Federal Reserve chair <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-campaign-fed-independence-jerome-powell-interes-rates-politics-2024-4">Jerome Powell</a>, accusing him of trying to help the Democrats keep the presidency."Having the presidency and the Senate means you can put anybody you want into these positions and get through these secretaries of various bodies and so forth," said Stephen Biggar, managing director of Argus Research. "The Senate will be cooperative and that only helps the cause for banks and all things bank regulation."Since the July fines, Citi has faced mounting pressure. In October, Sen. Elizabeth Warren urged the OCC to "impose growth restrictions" on Citi, arguing that it has grown "too big to manage." (The regulator and Citi declined to comment.)A few weeks later, Fraser was dogged by questions in an earnings call about the bank's regulatory fate. She was asked three times for reassurances that Citi did not and would not have an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-jane-fraser-regulators-occ-frb-consent-orders-asset-cap-2024-10">asset cap</a> before answering the question."Let me be crystal clear," Fraser said after JPMorgan analyst Vivek Juneja raised the issue. "We do not have an asset cap and there are no additional measures other than what was announced in July in place and not expecting any."Her odds just got better.Do you work for Citi? Have a tip or story to share? Reach out to Hayley Cuccinello at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:hcuccinello@businessinsider.com">hcuccinello@businessinsider.com</a> or 917 740 5340, which works for calls, text, and the encrypted messaging app Signal.

Citi needs a white knight. Donald Trump's second term might provide one.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump has not outlined his policy towards Taiwan.</li><li>On the campaign trail, he said Taiwan should pay the US for protection.</li></ul>On Wednesday, Taiwanese leader<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-election-president-william-lai-ching-te-xi-china-hates-2024-1"> Lai Ching-te</a> congratulated Donald Trump on winning the US election."I'm confident that the longstanding Taiwan-US partnership, built on shared values &amp; interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability &amp; lead to greater prosperity for us all," Lai wrote on X.But a second term for President-elect<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump"> Donald Trump</a> raises uncomfortable questions for Taiwan at a moment of mounting risks.China's has built the world's largest navy and recently held war games around the island in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sends-record-number-of-warplanes-to-fly-around-taiwan-2024-10">show of its power</a>, as its leader has insisted on subsuming the self-ruled island of 23 million and its advanced economy. And now it is losing an American president who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-us-would-use-military-if-china-attacked-taiwan-2022-5">vowed</a> to defend it with one who may make any defense contingent on favors in exchange.<h2 id="e699edb3-2c21-448c-95f6-a221fe6ea918">The protection question</h2>On December 2, 2016, before the start of his first presidential term, Trump took a call from then-Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-Wen. The move broke with decades of US foreign policy and angered Chinese officials.Trump would go on to maintain the confrontational stance with Beijing. In June 2017, Trump approved a $1.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan that included advanced missiles. That was followed up by another arms package in October 2018 worth around $330 million. Arms sales continued through 2019 and 2020.And in 2018 — despite protests from the Chinese — the US said it would be spending $250 million on a new, de-facto embassy in Taipei.The US has historically been vague about whether it would intervene should China try to unify with Taiwan by force, a policy known as "strategic ambiguity" intended to act as a deterrent. While Trump has not yet outlined his policy towards Taiwan this time around, he has made a handful of comments on the topic in the past few months."I think, Taiwan should pay us for defense," Trump told<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview-transcript/"> Bloomberg Businessweek</a> in June."You know, we're no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn't give us anything," he added.In October, he told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-the-bully-with-a-heart-of-gold-2024-presidential-election-dd922dd6">The Wall Street Journal</a> he "wouldn't have to" use the US military to defend Taiwan because Chinese leader Xi Jinping "respects" him. Xi, however, has called for unification with Taiwan and US officials believe he's ordered China's military to be prepared to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-possible-war-2027-china-taiwan-invasion-lisa-franchetti-2024-9">seize it</a> by 2027.The question, then, is what role the US will play in Taiwan's defense going forward."There could well be a demand for Taiwan to 'pay' more for its own protection and perhaps to invest in the United States. This has been Trump's line with many US allies," said Chong Ja Ian, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.Taiwan has an unofficial ally in the US, but the Pentagon is not stationing military assets in Taiwan for its defense. The US aids Taiwan in other ways, like selling military equipment to it.In October, the Biden administration <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-approves-2b-arms-sale-taiwan-including-nasams-missile-system-2024-10">approved $2 billion in arms sales</a> to Taiwan, including radar systems and three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems. The deal — which is pending congressional approval — was announced as China carried out large-scale military exercises around the island.Taiwan's terrain and advanced weapons, like Abrams tanks, Patriot missiles and F-16 fighters, make it a formidable adversary even for a larger Chinese force.The US has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-plans-turn-taiwan-strait-into-drone-hellscape-against-china-2024-6">threatened</a> to menace a Chinese force with an "unmanned hellscape" of thousands of drones should they try to invade or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/three-ways-china-could-blockade-taiwan-2024-8">blockade</a> Taiwan.Benjamin Blandin, a researcher at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, told BI it's unclear what protection Taiwan could receive from the US under Trump even if it were to pay up.Blandin added that it's highly unlikely the US would send troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. The US, he said, has "never made an ironclad pledge to defend the island."<h2 id="0b20c3bc-8ea2-4815-b2e3-039d0beb2a21">A negotiation chip</h2>Taiwan produces 92% of the world's most advanced microchips. The Chinese and Taiwanese governments know Trump is a businessman at heart, James Chin, an Asian studies professor at the University of Tasmania, told BI.What might work in the island's favor, Chin said, is if Trump sees a benefit to helping Taiwan, to preserve its access to its technology.However, "the Taiwanese will be super afraid that Trump will use Taiwan as a negotiation chip with Beijing," Chin told BI.Zhu Fenglian, China's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson, made a similar point during a<a target="_blank" href="http://www.gwytb.gov.cn/m/speech/202410/t20241030_12659813.htm"> press conference</a> in October."The US has always pursued an 'America First' policy, and Taiwan can turn from a 'chess piece' to a 'sacrificial chess piece' at any time," Zhu said.<h2 id="5add2ade-165e-41cd-8b69-ccdd6ee72654">Taiwan's next steps</h2>Taiwan's political leaders are going to have to navigate Trump's unpredictability, experts say."Taiwan's political leaders need to engage with those in Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and other fields who know Trump and have influence on Trump," Chieh-Ting Yeh, the director of the think tank US Taiwan Watch, said on Wednesday, per Nikkei Asia.In the meantime, Taiwan should invest in its own defense, said the experts BI spoke to."The good news for Taiwan is that Taiwan has bipartisan support in the US Congress," Chin said."I suspect the US will not abandon Taiwan per se. But Trump may occasionally use the Taiwan chip card to balance off against China," he added.Blandin said he thinks Taiwan should now focus on "developing its own armed forces and prepare for contingency plans" if China were to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sent-warplanes-ships-first-aircraft-carrier-to-surround-taiwan-2024-10"> launch an attack</a> on them."Taiwan should really get inspiration from Ukraine, especially on the drone side. It would be a very efficient and cost-effective way to deter China," he said.

Trump said Taiwan should pay for US protection. Here's what a second Trump term could mean for the island.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Former President Donald Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Trump won largely by breaching Democrats' "blue wall."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> won a second term in office, overcoming an intense level of political opposition — as well as doubts over his fitness for office — by driving home a message that he would be the best candidate for Americans' pocketbooks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1854053633198825482">Fox News</a> called the race early Wednesday morning. A little under four hours later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CNN/status/1854109735076676021">CNN</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854109434735169912">NBC News</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CBSNews/status/1854111079984501068">CBS News</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ABCPolitics/status/1854111153305088285">ABC News</a> also called a Trump victory after the result in Wisconsin put Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win the presidency.In defeating Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, Trump will return to the White House after voters ousted him from office in the 2020 election.Trump had essentially been running for president since his 2020 loss. He sought to overturn Joe Biden's victory and was impeached by the US House of Representatives for "incitement of insurrection" over his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. (He was later acquitted by the US Senate.)In November 2022, Trump launched his presidential campaign on the heels of a disappointing night for the GOP, as the party failed to retake the Senate and only barely won back a House majority. But he used the head start to hammer potential GOP primary opponents and gradually reaffirmed his standing as the party's leader.Trump easily dispatched top figures like Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wife-kids-family-photos">Ron DeSantis</a> of Florida and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-family-husband-kids-immigrant-parents-photos">Nikki Haley</a>, the former ambassador to the UN, in the 2024 GOP primaries, which further strengthened his hand as he eyed a general-election rematch against Biden.But Biden's exit from the race — following a disastrous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate against Trump</a> in June — paved the way for Harris' candidacy. The vice president quickly consolidated Democratic support and attracted the sort of donor base that was able to compete directly with GOP megadonors.Still, Trump continued to hold a polling advantage on the economy throughout the general-election race, which for many voters overrode concerns over his behavior while in office.And despite Harris' strong start and her robust campaign apparatus, she was still unable to overcome Trump's enduring level of support from his conservative base.Addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning, before the race was called, Trump said his election victory would usher in the "golden age of America" and vowed to "help our country heal.""America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he added.Trump's return to the White House is also poised to have profound effects on the judiciary.Should either Associate Justices <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-takes-aim-at-osha-2024-7">Clarence Thomas</a> or Samuel Alito retire from the bench within the next four years, Trump has the potential to name at least one more conservative jurist to the court. And if he is able to appoint two additional justices, it means that a majority of the court would consist of his appointees — a stunning level of influence that could have reverberations for generations.

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Presidential debates aren't just about the face-off. They're also big media events.</li><li>Each campaign sent politicians to Philadelphia to argue on behalf of Harris and Trump.</li></ul>Tuesday's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">presidential debate</a> was still more than 90 minutes away when I noticed a swelling gaggle, the first I'd seen since arriving at Pennsylvania Convention Center that afternoon. It wasn't immediately clear who sat in the eye of this hurricane of 40-odd reporters and a half-dozen TV cameras. Still carrying the chicken sandwich I'd picked up for dinner, I squeezed my way forward. It was Gov. Doug Burgum.The mild-mannered North Dakotan, an also-ran in this year's GOP primaries and a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vice-president-nominee-candidates-2024-1">finalist to be former President Donald Trump's running mate</a>, had been reduced by the circumstances of the evening to something far less than a two-term governor and successful businessman: An amateur political pundit. The price, perhaps, of keeping oneself in the mix for a Cabinet job.Burgum, of course, played his part. Vice President Kamala Harris, he said, was a "dangerously progressive liberal from California." Burgum wanted to know if she would be "asked the tough questions about her positions." It's not just Trump who's liable to come across as pugnacious, Burgum told reporters, noting that Harris is a former prosecutor. "Either one of them could be viewed as being too aggressive," he reassured the crowd. I quickly got bored and elbowed my way back out of the miniature media mosh pit.<div type="image" title="Burgum taking questions ahead of the debate." height="1500" width="2000" msid="113270468" hostid="261" sizebytes="95086"></div>This is what it's really like to be in the "spin room," the anachronistic institution that — aside from 2020, for obvious, COVID-related reasons — has existed as a parasitic outgrowth of America's quadrennial presidential debates since Ronald Reagan's 1984 reelection campaign. Each campaign trots out a variety of surrogates, the bulk of which are high-profile governors and members of Congress, to proffer talking points to reporters before and after the debate.It's a cheap production as far as political theatre goes, despite the considerable resources invested by both campaigns and media organizations.<div type="image" title="Reporters in the cavernous &quot;spin room&quot; at the Pennsylvania Convention Center." height="1500" width="2000" msid="113270466" hostid="261" sizebytes="270810"></div>Tuesday night's debate, though also an instance of political theatre, was highly consequential. It was Harris and Trump's only scheduled face-off, though the vice president has since asked for another. But the spin room wasn't anywhere near the debate hall at the National Constitution Center. In fact, we were six blocks away.The media center, set in a cavernous convention center hall the size of a football field, could have been anywhere. Six giant projector screens displayed ABC News' debate stream, while dozens of rows of tables and chairs held the roughly 1,000 reporters who had shown up for the ritual. Along the edges of the room, TV anchors and correspondents illuminated by ring lights spoke into their cameras. Crowds of reporters followed surrogates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Gov. Josh Shapiro around the room like schools of fish. If the goal is to cover the debate in real time, you're better off staying at home. The room was over-air conditioned and prone to echoes. I couldn't connect to the complimentary Wifi. The "swag" was fine — a tote bag, a key chain, and a water bottle.<div type="image" title="Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania finishing an interview with CNN in the spin room." height="1500" width="2000" msid="113270470" hostid="261" sizebytes="142786"></div>More importantly, it's probably the only scenario in which you could place six governors, nine senators, roughly a dozen House members, and a host of other political celebrities before hundreds of reporters in the same room, and still somehow manage to generate almost no newsworthy information.That's largely because, as media critics have <a target="_blank" href="http://archive.pressthink.org/2003/11/22/spin_alley.html">strenuously argued</a> for decades, it's an environment where candor and honesty are in short supply. There's a message to deliver, there's a victory to declare, and the events of the debate itself often have a strikingly limited bearing on what any surrogate says. Before the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/2012-presidential-debates-spin-room_n_1929185">onset of Twitter</a> (now known as X), one could still argue that that the spin room played an important role within our conflict-driven media ecosystem: In such an environment, it's crucial to get each campaign's perspective, and there's no better way to do that than putting everyone in one place.But these days, there's a zombie-like quality to it. You're here because everyone else is here, and this is how we've run debates since 1984. We're going through the motions. If you're a reporter looking to "get the perspective" of a campaign, just check your email inbox. Over the course of Tuesday's debate, I received 16 "fact check" emails from the Trump campaign, eight such emails from the Harris campaign, and dozens more from members of Congress and downballot candidates congratulating Harris and Trump on their respective "wins.""I mean, it's a media construct," Rep. Robert Garcia told me ahead of the debate. Don't blame me for participating in the game you all have set up, in other words. This was the media-friendly California Democrat's second time spinning for the top of the ticket this year. In June, he was part of the team that was forced to explain away President Joe Biden's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate performance</a>, indisputably the worst in American history. Tonight, his job would undoubtedly be easier, but I wondered: Was he prepared to declare Harris the victor, no matter what happened? "What I'm going to say is the truth, which is that she's going to perform great tonight, because she always does," Garcia said. "I have like, zero doubt."<div type="image" title="Rep. Robert Garcia in the spin room." height="1500" width="2000" msid="113270471" hostid="261" sizebytes="123788"></div>Few reporters are dense enough to outright ask surrogates "who won the debate" or "who's going to win the debate." And most of us understand that the spin room is a manifestation of the unholy mixture of news and entertainment that's often inescapable as a national reporter. Surrogate interviews are largely built around the spinning of particular moments or themes from the debate. Did Trump come across as too frustrated and angry? "Well, the American people are frustrated and angry," Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida explained. Did Trump too easily take Harris' bait? "He did some things that were a little unconventional, but I think that's what makes Donald Trump such a compelling figure," Vivek Ramaswamy explained. The only notable point of candor to emerge from Tuesday night was from Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thebulwark.com/p/inside-trump-spin-room-from-hell-presidential-debate">reportedly</a> called for the firing of Trump's debate team and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/lindsey-graham-trump-debate-00178592">described the affair</a> as a "missed opportunity."That's not to say it isn't a fun time for those involved. It became clear to me after a while that that's why we're all still here, despite the aforementioned vacuousness and obsolescence of it all. If you care what Anthony Scaramucci has to say about anything, as the Harris campaign apparently thinks you might, then he's on hand. Remember Khizr Khan, the Gold Star father from the Democratic convention eight years ago? Here's there too. And where else can one use the urinal beside a 2024 GOP presidential candidate, as I unwittingly did with Ramaswamy?The set-up also laid bare the power imbalance between Republican politicians and right-wing media. As Trump spoke with Fox News' Sean Hannity, Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott of South Carolina, along with Ramaswamy, stood patiently off to the side, waiting their turn to hit the airwaves.<div type="image" title="Trump speaking to reporters in the spin room." height="1500" width="2000" msid="113270473" hostid="261" sizebytes="171238"></div>Ultimately, the most "newsworthy" thing that took place in the spin room was Trump's surprise arrival, which triggered something of a stampede of reporters toward the cordoned-off bubble erected around him. Conventional wisdom would tell you that his decision to show up is a sign that he lost the debate — why bother to spin if you won?But even the former president, larger-than-life as he is, was often drowned out by the overlapping screams of the hundreds of reporters hoping to get his attention, and the only noteworthy tidbit he offered was a noncommittal answer on whether he would agree to another debate."They want a second debate because they lost," he told reporters before claiming the moderators were working against him. "It was obviously three on one."

Inside the media circus that still surrounds America's presidential debates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump may win the 2024 presidential election, sending him back to the White House.</li><li>His second administration could be far more radical than the first one.</li></ul>In January 2025, Donald Trump may be sworn into office as the 47th President of the United States.Despite his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-melania-hush-money-trial-gop-support-court-2024-5">ongoing legal troubles</a>, plenty of national polling shows the former president being either tied or leading President Joe Biden,A second term for Biden could mean either more of the same or a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-agenda-2025-control-house-senate-president-2024-4">flurry of new progressive policies,</a> if Democrats gain control of both chambers of Congress.Another Trump term, on the other hand, would likely entail a radical reversal from not just the previous four years, but even from Trump's first term in office.That becomes clear after examining the former president's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47">campaign proposals</a>, reading his <a target="_blank" href="https://time.com/6972022/donald-trump-transcript-2024-election/">April interview with TIME</a>, reviewing reporting from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-2025-second-term.html">The New York Times</a>, and perusing proposals made by the conservative <a target="_blank" href="https://www.project2025.org/">Heritage Foundation's Project 2025</a>.Some of these proposals may depend on Republicans gaining control of both the House and Senate, a likely possibility — though not guaranteed — if Trump wins the presidency.While not exhaustive, here's just some of what to expect in a second Trump administration.<h2 id="7294ec68-e5f9-42e7-af77-cae84b5fdbb4">Radically reshaping the federal bureaucracy</h2>Perhaps the most unorthodox — and to some, frightening — aspects of Trump's planning for a second term involve restructuring the executive branch in a manner that would drastically increase presidential power.That includes exercising more direct control over the hundreds of thousands of civilian servants who populate federal agencies — many of whom are apolitical, and often remain in their jobs across presidential administrations.Trump has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-confirms-wants-to-purge-federal-bureaucrats-who-arent-maga-2022-7">pledged to bring back</a> "Schedule F," a classification for civil servants that was created — but never used — in October 2020. Biden later rescinded it after taking office. That classification was designed to skirt the typical job protections afforded to career civil servants.Trump's plans also include bringing independent agencies — such as the Federal Communications Commission and the Federal Trade Commission — under direct presidential control, a departure from decades of precedent. That could also include the Federal Reserve, the country's central banking system, though that's less clear.Lastly, he has pledged to bring back "impoundment," in which the executive branch refuses to spend money provided by Congress. That's been illegal since 1974, but Trump is pledging to challenge it.One of the hallmarks of Trump's first term was that he was significantly constrained, both by his advisors and aspects of the federal bureaucracy. Taken together, these proposals show how that could change.<h2 id="9ec117c8-5ee2-4889-92a1-1f74e46f22f3">A murky stance on abortion</h2>In April, Trump declared that he believed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion should be decided at the state level</a>, seemingly rejecting the idea of enacting nationwide restrictions on the procedure."The states are going to say. It's irrelevant whether I'm comfortable or not," Trump told TIME. "It's totally irrelevant, because the states are going to make those decisions."But that doesn't fully address the complexity of the issue — and it's unclear how far other Republicans may go.In an April interview with TIME, Trump refused to say whether he would veto abortion restrictions passed by a Republican-controlled Congress, insisting there "will never be that chance because it won't happen."He has also refused to state his position on whether mifepristone — a medication that enabled an estimated <a target="_blank" href="https://www.guttmacher.org/2024/03/medication-abortion-accounted-63-all-us-abortions-2023-increase-53-2020">63% of abortions</a> in the US in 2023 — should remain legal.Some of his allies have called for the enforcement of a 19th-century law called the Comstock Act that could be used to outlaw the mailing of the pill, a move that would affect women in a variety of states.<h2 id="11487446-b07f-4d66-a598-4f482c429de3">The potential of mass deportations and ending some birthright citizenship</h2>Trump is expected to take a far more harsh approach toward illegal immigration and border security if elected — including pledging to carry out a massive deportation operation that could include the use of the National Guard.That could include new detention camps, according to Stephen Miller, the architect of much of Trump's immigration policy.Miller told The New York Times that a second Trump administration would build "vast holding facilities that would function as staging centers" on "open land in Texas near the border."Trump has also pledged to end so-called "birthright citizenship" for the children of people who entered the country illegally and are not citizens. But it could be tricky.<div type="image" title="Trump advisor Stephen Miller at CPAC in March of last year." height="1500" width="2000" msid="110281077" hostid="261" sizebytes="100044"></div>The US Constitution guarantees birthright citizenship via the 14th Amendment, which states that "all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside."Trump has pledged to sign an executive order making clear that those children are not "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States — a move likely to be challenged in court.<h2 id="af9857e3-91a1-43ee-a5a9-b56afcdacc17">Retribution against political opponents</h2>Trump has pledged to appoint a special prosecutor to go after the Biden family, arguing that it's only fair given that he has faced criminal charges across a variety of jurisdictions for his "hush money" payments, his mishandling of classified documents, and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.It's part of a broader effort by Trump and his allies to <a target="_blank" href="https://americarenewing.com/issues/the-u-s-justice-department-is-not-independent/">curtail the independence</a> of the Department of Justice, the nation's top law enforcement agency. Since the Nixon era, there have been strong norms around keeping the department at arm's length from the president, but some argue that shouldn't be the case — and that the present-day norms are a facade anyway.<h2 id="c5ddfff2-df31-4dab-9e1e-ab53c75ef6ac">Pardoning January 6 rioters</h2>Trump has also promised to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-very-seriously-consider-jan-6-pardons-2022-6">issue pardons</a> for those who've faced federal convictions in connection to the January 6 assault on the US Capitol.He has described jailed or imprisoned rioters as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pence-trump-jan-6-rioters-hostages-election-2024-3">"hostages" and "political prisoners,"</a> and his campaign rallies have at times begun with a version of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bloodbath-donald-trump-rally-civil-war-bernie-moreno-2024-3">national anthem</a> sung by January 6 defendants.In a recent interview with TIME, he said that he would not pardon those who were "evil and bad," but claimed that many of the rioters were "ushered in" by Capitol Police.<h2 id="1c16718c-ec15-443c-b3a4-a46a705faf7e">Tariffs on all imported goods</h2>If re-elected, the former president has proposed many protectionist policies, including universal 10% tariffs on all imported goods."I call it a ring around the country," Trump told TIME.Experts have warned that such a policy would simply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-10-tariff-proposal-cost-households-1500-extra-presidential-election-2024-3">increase consumer costs</a> while doing little to boost domestic manufacturing and jobs.He has also pledged to work with Congress to pass a bill enacting "reciprocal" tariffs on goods from other countries: For example, if China were to enact a 100% tariff on products from the US, the US would enact a 100% tariffs on Chinese-made goods in return.<h2 id="4e88917b-4676-4dcb-afc6-fa8338718d48">Less willingness to protect allies abroad</h2>Trump's positioning on the present-day wars has been somewhat murky — he's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-skeptical-trump-ukraine-loan-wont-be-paid-2024-3">not as opposed to Ukraine aid</a> as much of his party, and he's been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-criticizes-israels-photos-of-bombings-in-gaza-2024-3">far more willing to criticize</a> Israel's war in Gaza."I think that Israel has done one thing very badly: public relations," Trump told TIME, blaming Israel in part for the lack of progress on a two-state solution.But if there's been one consistent throughline of the former president's foreign policy thinking, it's a suspicion of long-standing arrangements designed to underpin the global world order.Perhaps the most significant change Trump wants to see is a "reevaluation" of the purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an alliance between the US and Europe that dates back to the Cold War. Trump has long argued that the US is spending too much to defend the continent.Trump has also argued that much of the existing foreign policy establishment in Washington, DC needs to be overhauled, deriding officials at the State Department and Pentagon as "warmongers" and members of the "deep state."<h2 id="d530b266-b2ab-4f3e-84bc-3faf7b3f9cd9">Tax policy</h2>As president, Trump and the Republican-led Congress passed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a significant overhaul of the tax code that included cuts to individual and estate taxes and a significant lowering of the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.Much of those cuts, aside from the corporate tax cut, are set to expire in 2025. According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/trump-considers-making-2017-personal-tax-cuts-permanent?embedded-checkout=true">Bloomberg</a>, Trump wants to extend those cuts in a second term.More vaguely, Trump has also proposed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-the-american-academy">taxing private university endowments</a> to fund a new federally-operated university called the "American Academy."<h2 id="713d6837-8c65-42d0-9f92-066350bffa0f">Social Security and Medicare</h2>It remains unclear whether Trump would seek cuts to Social Security and Medicare in a second term — he's historically said a variety of contradictory things on the matter.In March, Trump said in a CNBC interview that there's "a lot you can do in terms of entitlements in terms of cutting," seemingly suggesting that he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cutting-medicare-social-security-benefits-2024-3">would pursue cuts to entitlement programs</a>. His campaign later backtracked on those remarks, saying he simply wanted to "get rid of waste and fraud."Democrats have been eager to highlight the possibility of Republican-led cuts to the programs, which primarily benefit older Americans, while Republicans have often insisted that they are not interested in making changes to those programs.During the final year of Trump's presidency, his White House <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/budget-proposal-trump-whats-included-main-points-safety-net-2021-2020-2-1028893397#military1">released a budget</a> for Fiscal Year 2021 that included some cuts to Social Security benefits, though the document never became law.

What Donald Trump might do if he wins a second term in 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new poll shows Trump's polling gains have been powered by voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2020.</li><li>The Times says these voters could stay home or return to Biden. </li></ul>President Joe Biden's reelection chances could rest on the support of irregular and disengaged voters — a segment of the population who sat out the hotly-contested 2020 presidential race.But Biden would have to convince these voters that his vision for the economy would ultimately work for them, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/upshot/trump-biden-polls-voters.html">their lagging support for his campaign has given former President Donald Trump a major opening</a> ahead of November.A New York Times/Siena College poll released last month shows Trump's polling gains have been powered by registered voters who didn't vote in 2020. Among these so-called irregular voters, Trump had a seven-point advantage over Biden (43% to 36%) for the 2024 contest in the latest poll. And Trump held an overall one-point lead (46% to 45%) among registered voters, while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/14/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">Biden had a one-point lead over Trump among voters aged 18 to 29</a>.However, there's no guarantee these voters will remain in Trump's corner in November, the Times wrote. With many irregular voters splitting their tickets — which is already being seen as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reelection-swing-state-democrats-baldwin-casey-coattails-2024-5">Democratic Senate candidates in swing states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are running ahead of Biden</a> — Trump's support among these disengaged voters could falter as partisan leanings sharpen closer to the election. Many of these less engaged voters could eventually support Biden or stay at home, said the Times.A big issue for irregular voters appears to be the economy, the poll showed. Democratic-leaning irregular voters said they view the economy as either "poor" or "fair," while Democratic voters who vote more regularly, described the economy as "good" or "excellent," the report said.This presents a challenge for Biden as he aims to bolster <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">his economic message</a> — especially among young voters and minorities who would generally be inclined to back him based on prior voting trends. In the 2020 election, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/">Biden dominated among young voters aged 18 to 29</a>, winning this group by 24 points over Trump, according to Pew Research.But as recent data has showed, the 2024 race will be fought on much different terrain than the 2020 contest.

Disengaged voters could be the key to Biden winning a second term. But they need to be convinced on the economy.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Elon Musk has been flexing his power as a political influencer in recent years.</li><li>Whoever wins the White House could drastically impact the billionaire's businesses.</li></ul>In recent years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a> appears to have gone from lightly flirting with politics to having a full-blown love affair with growing his influence in Washington.As the presidential election inches closer and the billionaire businessman continues teasing the idea of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-elon-musk-following-playbook-scandals-supporters-2024-6">Donald Trump endorsement</a>, it's becoming clear that Musk has a lot at stake depending on who next leads the country.While Musk hasn't publicly endorsed any candidate, he was reported to have bonded with fellow billionaires over a shared <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-david-sacks-dinner-anti-biden-hollywood-hills-2024-4">distrust of Democrats</a> and privately discussed how best to defeat them in this year's election.The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Musk had also talked with the Trump campaign about taking on an advisory role if the former president returned to the White House.A representative for the Trump campaign declined to comment on the Journal's report but acknowledged that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-to-ai-regulation-under-another-trump-term-2024-6">Silicon Valley elites</a> such as Musk had lined up to support Trump's reelection campaign."It has been widely reported and is demonstrated in a number of ways that many of the nation's most important leaders in technology and innovation are concerned with the damage done to their industry by Biden's failures to handle our economy and his moves to overburden innovators with government bureaucracy and unrelenting regulation," Brian Hughes, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign, told Business Insider in a statement.While Musk is increasingly flexing his political power, whoever wins the White House could drastically impact the billionaire and his businesses. Here's how things could shake out for Musk under a second Trump administration versus a Joe Biden win.<h2 id="0cb9c03a-e234-454e-9fca-cde99bf7f580">Musk under Trump</h2>Musk previously served on business advisory groups under the first <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-carbon-tax-affected-by-trump-leaving-paris-climate-accord-2017-6">Trump administration</a> but pulled out of the role over disagreements with Trump's 2017 decision to leave the Paris climate accord.If he were to take on a more formal role in a hypothetical second Trump term, Musk would be taking a gamble on what'd be best for his numerous multibillion-dollar businesses, Bradley Tusk told BI.Tusk is a venture capitalist and political strategist whose VC firm, Tusk Venture Partners, advises startups in highly regulated industries. If he were advising Musk now, Tusk said, he'd tell him, "You've got to really be careful what you wish for — for a bunch of reasons."Under Trump, Tusk said, tax cuts and deregulation could lead to a boom for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla">Tesla</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter">X</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-elon-musk">SpaceX </a>— especially given Trump's prior push to develop a Space Force. This could also come with a massive increase in political cache but possibly decreased stability in the markets, which Musk relies on to maintain his wealth and power."There is the potential to really have a tremendous amount of influence within Trump's administration," Stacey Lee, a law and ethics professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, told BI. "And when you look at the hallmarks of what Trump really respects — he's popular, he has a management style that is more singular in its voice — these are all of the things that Trump really admires, and so does Musk.""In that regard," she said, "they may be rather odd kindred spirits."<h2 id="9e591945-c668-4b20-83b8-4683bbf4a743">Musk under Biden</h2>In a world where Biden is elected again, Musk may not have the influence he appears to crave, but Tusk said Musk would have something markets and companies rely on for strong growth: stability."Musk just got a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-institutional-shareholders-elon-musk-pay-package-2024-6">$55 billion pay package</a> approved under Joe Biden as president — right now, his life's pretty good," Tusk said. "And now we have the choice of a president who genuinely believes in clean energy and someone who actively despises it. So, for those Tesla shareholders, it's a lot better for them if Joe Biden's president. And they just gave Elon $55 billion to do what's best for the company."But Lee said a second Biden administration would also be prone to more regulation and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uaw-union-vote-volkswagen-tesla-elon-musk-organizing-2024-4">pro-union policies</a>, neither of which is very attractive to Musk as a businessman."Biden is very traditional in terms of his policies. He is committed to raising corporate taxes," Lee said. "Under Trump, we saw them go from 35% to 21%, and now Trump is saying, 'Hey, if I get in, I'll take it down to 20.' I think that would be music to Musk's ears.'"<h2 id="42663fa7-4d22-4287-8434-0c98d1ff8dd1">A second Trump term could backfire for Musk</h2>"My initial instinct — I think everybody's — would be like, 'Oh, of course, it'd better for Musk under Trump.' But I think ultimately, it'd be much worse," Tusk said.While Musk may be seduced by the allure of amassing even more power, Tusk said it would be a double-edged sword with Trump.Tusk said Biden didn't think of Musk as a rival — he might not think about him at all. But with Trump, as has happened with so many of his one-time allies, his affection for Musk could suddenly flip, making the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musk">Tesla CEO</a> a target for his ire."On the Trump side, Musk needs to be careful and not go headlong into this. As seductive as it might seem, it really ends badly for basically everybody," Tusk said. "And all the things that he values, the things that sort of makes him happy — the attention and relevance — are the same things that make Trump happy.""And the one guy you can't win a head-to-head war with is the president of the United States," he added.Musk and Biden campaign representatives didn't respond to requests for comment from BI.

Elon Musk may have more to lose under a second Trump term than he stands to gain       

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race is causing market uncertainty.</li><li>Investors were already trying to position themselves following the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump on July 13.</li></ul>US President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential election</a> is throwing fresh uncertainty into the markets for a second straight week.Investors were already trying to position themselves for the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-dominate-markets-weekend-shooting-bitcoin-dollar-inflation-bonds-2024-7">"Trump trade"</a> following the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on July 13. Now, they are trying to figure out how Biden dropping out would change the game.Analysts are gearing up for volatility."We have seen some rotation toward 'red' sectors and away from 'blue' ones in recent weeks as recent momentum has favored the Republican party," Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management's chief investment officer, wrote in a note on Sunday. "That could at least partially reverse in the coming days as markets parse the latest developments."The US dollar — which is expected to gain under a potential Trump presidency — weakened on Monday. This helped dollar-denominated spot gold rise 0.2% to above $2,400 an ounce.Markets at large were relatively calm following Biden's withdrawal after the Trump trade gripped sentiment last week. S&amp;P 500 stock futures were 0.2% at 1:33 a.m. ET, while Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.4%.Yields for 10-year US Treasury yields were 1.7 basis points lower, "which may reflect a little less risk of even more fiscal spending," Jim Reid, a multi-asset research strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote on Monday.Both EUROSTOXX 50 and FTSE futures were slightly higher.Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at trading platform Capital.com, told Business Insider that Biden's withdrawal from the race also removes a layer of uncertainty in the market."This move probably improves the chances of the Democrats to win the presidency," said Rodda, referring to Biden's decision not to seek a second term.Gold, as a safe haven asset, is likely to come under pressure should Harris' chances improve, since it reduces the risk of fallout from Trump's hawkish foreign policy and massive deficit spending, Chris Weston, the head of research at Australian onine broker Pepperstone, wrote in a note.<h2 id="b3f48522-54de-4da9-82d3-437e495c1682">Investors are watching to see if Harris wins the Democrats' nomination</h2>Investors are still focusing on whether the Democratic Party will nominate Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate."There is a small risk that Harris' presumptive nomination is met with resistance within the Democratic Party and causes internal divisions, leading to calls for another candidate," said Rodda. "That would reignite the volatility we saw at the end of last week."The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/">CBOE Volatility Index</a> rose 33% last week following the assassination attempt on Trump, reflecting market jitters over the political landscape. The index was not yet open for trade on Monday as of the time this article was published.Analysts don't expect the Democrats' fiscal and trade policy agenda to shift much if they nominate Harris."The Dems will want to position her as a continuity candidate," said Rodda."Biden's withdrawal resets the contest. However, to the extent that Harris is nominated to succeed Biden as the Democratic standard-bearer, we believe the dynamics of the election will not change as much as one might expect," said UBS' Haefele."The American electorate is highly polarized and most of Biden's supporters will be reluctant to abandon the party's nominee," he added.<h2 id="e61103fa-8cc5-45d1-b7c4-8f13267a9b79">Focus on fundamentals</h2>Despite the uncertainty, UBS advises investors to not forget fundamentals matter too — maybe even more so than politics."Investors should remember that US political outcomes are far from the largest driver of financial market returns, or even sector performance," wrote Haefele.The Swiss bank is advising investors to not alter their strategies too dramatically based on political expectations."Economic data and Fed rate cut expectations remain at least as important," Haefele added.

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