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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

A unit of <keyword id="6437412" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Qatar-Investment-Authority" source="Orion">Qatar Investment Authority</keyword>, <keyword id="119583" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-Mutual-Fund" source="Orion">SBI Mutual Fund</keyword>, and foreign investment funds <keyword id="6354527" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nomura" source="Orion">Nomura</keyword> and <keyword id="44473" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Citigroup" source="Orion">Citigroup</keyword> were the biggest buyers of shares in <keyword id="19955648" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Adani-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Group" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Adani Group">Adani group</keyword>'s <keyword id="22661797" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="power-transmission-unit" source="Orion">power transmission unit</keyword>'s USD <keyword id="22661798" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-billion-QIP" source="Orion">1 billion QIP</keyword>, according to a stock exchange filing by the company. The Rs 8,373.10 crore (USD 1 billion) qualified institutional placement (QIP) of <keyword id="19964750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Energy-Solutions" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Energy Solutions" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Adani Energy Solutions">Adani Energy Solutions</keyword> Ltd (AESL), which closed last week, saw over 120 investors seek shares in the firm that is into power transmission, distribution and smart metering business. Billionaire <keyword id="22623487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Stanley-Druckenmiller" source="keywords">Stanley Druckenmiller</keyword>'s family office-led investment firms were among the companies that sought shares of AESL in the QIP. AESL in the filing said its board has approved allocation of over 8.57 crore shares to eligible qualified institutional buyers at the issue price of Rs 976 per share, reflecting a discount of Rs 51.11 (4.98 per cent) to the floor price of Rs 1,027. Giving details of allottees who got more than 5 per cent of shares, it said INQ Holdings LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of QIA, cornered 15 per cent of the shares sold. Two Mauritius funds of Citigroup bought 8.88 per cent of the shares sold while four SBI funds - SBI Infrastructure Fund, SBI Large &amp; Midcap Fund, SBI Long term Advantage Fund Series IV and SBI Magnum Children's Benefit Fund - together took home 7.93 per cent of the shares. Nomura Singapore Ltd ODI cornered 7.5 per cent of the shares, the filing showed. INQ had in August last year acquired nearly 2.7 per cent in Adani Green Energy Ltd - the renewable energy firm of the conglomerate run by billionaire Gautam Adani. In 2020, it had acquired a stake in Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd, a subsidiary of AESL. The AESL QIP last week was oversubscribed six times and fetched demand of over Rs 50,000 crore against an issue size of USD 1 billion. <keyword id="22636516" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Duquesne-Family-Office" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Duquesne Family Office" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Duquesne Family Office">Duquesne Family Office</keyword> and two other US-based long-only funds - Driehaus Capital Management and Jennison Associates - bought shares but AESL did not disclose the exact number of shares they bought since these were less than 5 per cent of the issue size, sources said. The QIP issue marked the debut of highly prestigious long-only investors Duquesne Family Office, Driehaus Capital Management and Jennison Associates which are known for their strong performance. These investors are known for investing only in companies with high governance and are known for staying invested for decades. The QIP was the first public equity raise by the conglomerate since a damning Hindenburg report last year wiped away billions in shareholder value. The demand generated made the AESL QIP the largest in the energy space. Duquesne was founded by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who along with George Soros in 1992 broke the Bank of England by shorting the British pound, leading to its crash and earnings over a billion dollars. Adani Group has a history of introducing several long-only investors in the market. In the past years, it has brought large investors including GQG Partners and International Holding Company (IHC) besides QIA. Other major global names that participated in the QIP include Blackrock, Jupiter Asset Management, and Eastspring. Domestic mutual funds that have participated included HDFC Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund, Bandhan Mutual Fund, LIC, WhiteOak, 360One among others. Insurance companies including SBI Insurance, SBI Pension and ASK Asset Management have also participated, according to sources. QIP is an instrument used by listed companies to raise funds from large institutions. The fundraise is the first after Adani group's flagship firm scrapped a Rs 20,000 crore issue in February last year, following the Hindenburg report alleging accounting fraud and stock manipulation. Though the group vehemently and repeatedly denied all allegations, listed companies of the conglomerate at one point saw over USD 150 billion of their market value being wiped out. While the group has largely recovered, a successful QIP is being seen as a powerful vote of investor confidence in the tycoon. Separately, Adani Enterprises Ltd, the flagship firm of the group, is looking to revive its first-ever public sale of bonds. It plans to raise as much as Rs 600 crore. The company has hired Trust Investment Advisors, AK Capital Services and Nuvama Wealth Management as lead managers for the issuances. The group had tapped the dollar bond market in March this year - the first time since the Hindenburg report - when its solar energy unit Adani Green Energy Ltd and associated firms got bids of about USD 2.9 billion.

Qatar Investment Authority unit, SBI funds, Citigroup biggest buyers in Adani Energy's USD 1 billion QIP

<ul><li>State Bank of India’s (SBI) share price is up by 6% after its second-quarter earnings showed a 52% jump in profit. </li><li>It’s currently the most active stock on the market today, along with being one of the top gainers.</li><li>Most brokerages have upgraded their outlook and target prices.</li></ul>The share price of India’s largest public-sector lender, the State Bank of India (SBI), is up by over 6% after the bank reported a 52% jump in its profits yesterday during its second-quarter earnings. “SBI reported a healthy performance in a challenging environment,” noted Motilal Oswal Securities. <div type="image" title="sbi share price" msid="79055337" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;SBI&amp;#39;s share price movement since 1 August 2020&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="79039165" title="SBI’s profit jumps over 50% in Q2 — India’s largest bank plans to outperform the industry when it comes to credit growth" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> Not only is SBI’s stock one of the most active on the market today, but it’s also the top gainer so far. In addition to its profit beating market estimates, the rally in the bank’s stock price is also partially a function of its expectations on the slippages front. “Clarification on overall stress at 2.5% of loans and Covid-19 provisions building up, the hangover of uncertainty is abating,” said ICICI Direct Securities in its review. The brokerage also pointed out that the SBI’s customer portfolio, which consists mostly of salaried and government employees, may be more resilient in paying back loans amid the pandemic. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="79041421" title="SBI received restructuring requests for over ₹6,000 crore in October — expects that to more than double over the next three months" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> Analysts bullish on SBI <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Brokerage </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Target price for SBI </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Kotak Institutional Equities </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹340 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">JM Financial </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹300 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Motilal Oswal Securities </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹300 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Prabhudas Lilladher </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹290 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Sharekhan </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹280 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Elara Capital </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹255 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">ICICI Direct Securities </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹235 </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: Respective review reports Not everyone believes that SBI will be able to keep its spillages that low. “While we expect stress loans to be higher than guidance and view the low COVID provisions as a negative, we recommend Buy as we see little downside from the current valuation,” said Elara Capital in its review. Yet, most brokerages agree on one thing. SBI’s remains the best bet for recovery among public sector banks with a healthy provision coverage ratio of 71%, robust capitalisation, and improved core operating profit. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/foreign-policy/news/donald-trump-vs-joe-biden-us-election-result-and-relations-with-india-and-pm-modi/articleshow/79022098.cms">If Joe Biden wins, he’ll be the third US president to deal with Modi — Here’s how that could play out</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/tcs-infosys-hcl-tech-and-others-to-see-more-freshers-than-lateral-hires-in-the-next-six-months/articleshow/79014794.cms">TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, and others to see more freshers than lateral hires in the next six months</a>

SBI rallies over 6% after strong earnings with analysts pegging it to be the first to recover among public sector banks

<ul><li>India's largest bank, the State Bank of India, posted a profit jump of 315% in the fourth quarter as compared to same quarter last year.</li><li>Much of profit comes from the sale of its stake in its subsidiaries, SBI Life Insurance and SBI Cards and Payment Services. </li><li>SBI's share price was up by more than 6% after its earnings were announced.</li></ul> India’s largest bank, the State Bank of India (SBI), posted a profit of ₹3,480.81 crore for the fourth quartered ending on 31 March 2020 — a jump of more than four times compared to its profit from the same quarter last year at ₹838.40 crore. “This is the highest ever yearly net profit recorded by the bank,” said SBI. Much of the profit comes from the bank shedding its stake in its subsidiaries. SBI earned ₹3,843.40 crore from selling its investment in SBI Life Insurance in Q2 FY 20 and ₹2,731 crore from sale of stake in SBI Cards and Payment Services. The good news for investors is that the government-owned bank has managed to keep bad loans under check. However, the shares had already rallied in the hope of a strong set of numbers from SBI. Once the earnings were out, the bank's share price was up by more than 6%. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Image"><cdata><![CDATA[<div class="flourish-embed flourish-chart" data-src="visualisation/2720937" data-url="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/2720937/embed"></div>]]></cdata></div> Despite a standstill on ₹23,25,285 crore loans⁠— due to a government mandate on dues that couldn’t be collected due to the coronavirus lockdown ⁠— the gross non-performing assets (NPA) was ₹1,49,091 crore, about 6.15% of the total loan book. “Exposure to severely stressed sectors by COIVD 19 is less than 4.0% of the book,” said the bank’s management. Home loans, which make up for 22% of SBI’s domestic advances, grew by 13.86% year-on-year (YoY). <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Particulars </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Jan-Mar 2020 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Jan-Mar 2019 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Gross NPA </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹ 1,49,091.85 cr </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹ 1,72,750.36 cr </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Net NPA </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹ 51,871.30 cr </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">₹ 58, 248.61 cr </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Provision coverage ratio </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">83.61% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;"> </td></tr></tbody></table> Provision coverage ratio Ahead of the earnings, Credit Suisse had expected SBI’s growth to slow and its credit costs to rise this year and the next financial year. Selling some of its stake in insurance could partly offset SBI’s capital needs. “SBI’s stake sale in its insurance subsidiaries, to 30%, can cover 50% of its capital call,” the report said. And that could unlock some value for its shareholders. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Image"><cdata><![CDATA[<div class="flourish-embed flourish-chart" data-src="visualisation/2720228" data-url="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/2720228/embed"></div>]]></cdata></div> However, it still expected growth to be severely hampered, with expectations of GDP turning negative. “We believe there is a potential risk of sharply declining asset quality in both the corporate as well as individual segments of loan books,” said Credit Suisse.

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FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

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Qatar Investment Authority unit, SBI funds, Citigroup biggest buyers in Adani Energy's USD 1 billion QIP

PTI

SBI rallies over 6% after strong earnings with analysts pegging it to be the first to recover among public sector banks

Prabhjote Gill

India's largest bank's profit spikes thanks to SBI Cards share sale⁠— bad loans are under control

Prabhjote Gill

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