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The State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) in its latest report has asked for <keyword id="20213295" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-reforms" source="keywords">tax reforms</keyword> after concerns were flagged over the recent decline in <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword>. The report says tax Reforms for Deposits can accentuate the banking system's stability and resilience to the next level. SBI attributed the fall in deposits to the varied rates of return offered by different <keyword id="20139443" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-options" source="keywords">investment options</keyword> for similar time frames and different tax rates on <keyword id="22837794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="returns-on-deposits" source="keywords">returns on deposits</keyword>. The <keyword id="20352499" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-report" source="keywords">SBI report</keyword> said that "<keyword id="20658792" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-treatment" source="keywords">Tax treatment</keyword> of bank and non-bank channels are non-uniform, even as bank deposits have a wider and denser pass-through effect across the populace sensitivity of Deposits on Tax is as much as 7 per cent" The report noted that a bank deposit of Rs 10 lac in a Savings Bank (SB) account at an investment return of 3 per cent would generate Rs 30,000 in returns and after accounting for taxes and exemptions, the <keyword id="22837795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-return" source="keywords">net return</keyword> would be Rs 16,000. The report adds that the net returns vary significantly if deposits are made in different instruments like <keyword id="21041176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="term-deposits" source="keywords">term deposits</keyword>, short and long-term investments in debt funds, liquid funds or bonds. The tax rates on these deposits also favour saving banks or term deposits. The report illustrates a term deposit of up to one year with the same principal amount of Rs 10 lac at a yield of 6.25 per cent would result in a net return of Rs 50,000 after taxes. But for term deposits exceeding one year the interest rate is higher and with an interest rate of 7.25 per cent, the gross return would be Rs 72,500. After taxes, the net return would be Rs 58,000. The data highlights that similar type of investments for the same period generates significantly different returns because of different tax treatment by the government. Similar variations are observed in other <keyword id="20105084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-plans" source="keywords">investment plans</keyword> as well. For instance, investments in equity and mutual funds with a 2 per cent dividend income of Rs 10,00,000 generate Rs 20,000, which after taxes the net return is Rs 16,000. However, Short-term investments of less than one year in equity and mutual funds, offering an 11 per cent return generate Rs 1,10,000, with a net return of Rs 88,000 after taxes. This investment if made in Long-term investments of more than one year the return increases to 15% on Rs 10,00,000 and generates Rs 1,50,000 annually. With a lower tax bracket of 12.5 per cent tax on long-term investments and applicable exemptions, the net return is Rs 1,43,750. These variations in returns across different deposits and investment options highlight the complexity and thus investors are choosing the higher return options over the bank deposits which in turn poses a threat to the deposit growth in the banking sector.

Decline in bank deposits because of non-uniform tax treatment on various investment options: SBI report

<div type="image" title="SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal" agency="ANI" msid="112275933" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>The Consumer Price <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent in the financial year 2024-25 except for September and October month, according to a research report by <keyword id="13222" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="Orion">SBI</keyword>. The report also noted that the inflation outlook in India remains a critical focus for the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). Recent data indicates that the <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation rose to 5.08 per cent in June 2024, driven primarily by higher food and beverage prices. "CPI inflation is expected to remain below or close to 5.0 per cent in the remaining months, except for Sep'24 and Oct'24" said the report. The report also added that the monsoon season plays an important role in shaping food prices, and while the current monsoon has shown a satisfactory surplus, excess rainfall could lead to crop losses, adversely affecting food inflation. The RBI's ability to manage inflation expectations is crucial, especially as it navigates the delicate balance between supporting <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and maintaining <keyword id="19960158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-stability" source="keywords">price stability</keyword>. "With monsoon progressing satisfactorily with 2 per cent surplus till date and progress of area coverage under Kharif crops showing 2.9 per cent yoy, we expect inflation to remain within RBI target in FY25. However, with La Nina getting precedence, excess rainfalls could result in crop loss and thus a negative impact on food prices" the report added. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the report mentioned that the RBI is likely to continue its stance of withdrawing accommodation. This approach aims to address inflationary pressures while ensuring that the economy remains on a growth trajectory. However, the central bank faces challenges in policy transmission, as deposit rates have shown downward rigidity despite a declining weighted average lending rate (WALR). This situation complicates the RBI's efforts to implement effective monetary policy. "Even though the Banks are chasing deposits to fund the incremental credit growth, RBI recent report suggests, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loan decreased by 11 bps from the beginning of the year (i.e. from 9.43 in January'24 to 9.32 in June'24)" the report noted. Looking ahead, the RBI's decisions will be influenced by both domestic and global economic conditions. The potential for a recession in the US and geopolitical tensions could impact inflation dynamics in India. As such, the RBI's monetary policy will need to remain flexible and responsive to these external factors while striving to achieve its inflation targets and support sustainable economic growth. (ANI)

SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal

New Delhi: <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> has demonstrated a largely successful inflation targeting regime compared to advanced economies such as the USA, Germany, and France, according to a research report by the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" source="keywords">State Bank of India</keyword> (SBI). The report credits government initiatives, the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>, and banks for addressing these issues over the past decade, allowing for better policy transmission and improved inflation management. "The success of Inflation Targeting in India is largely a byproduct of a vibrant financial ecosystem where <keyword id="23140158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi-government" source="keywords">RBI, Government</keyword> and the Banks are working closely in unison in ushering in market reforms" said the report The report highlighted that India experienced minimal deviations from its inflation targets between 2021 and 2024, setting it apart from other global economies facing greater inflationary challenges. It added that during 2021-2024, India recorded one of the lowest deviations from its inflation targets, highlighting the effectiveness of its inflation control measures. This success, the report points out, is largely a result of coordinated efforts between the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) and the central government. "India had a largely successful inflation targeting regime. Compared to advanced economies like the USA, Germany" said the report. As per the report the synchronization of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly during the pandemic, played a key role in maintaining price stability. It also emphasized that India's pre-inflation targeting regime faced several challenges that hindered the effective transmission of monetary policy. These challenges included sustained fiscal dominance, the presence of a large informal sector, significant informal financing, and inefficiencies in how banks priced their loan products. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in India's pre-Inflation Targeting regime was constrained by several India specific factors that affected transmission of the policy impulses through the interest rate channel" the report added. However, one of the key arguments in the report is that the RBI's inflation targeting has anchored inflationary expectations, even as food inflation remains high. The notion that headline inflation should exclude food prices was dismissed as counterfactual by the report. According to the study, the RBI's success in targeting inflation, despite food price volatility, has prevented a spill-over from food inflation to core inflation. The report stressed that the RBI's consistent communication of its inflation target--set at 4 per cent--has been crucial in successfully anchoring inflation expectations. By reinforcing its commitment to this target, the RBI has helped stabilize inflationary trends across the broader economy. The SBI report reinforces India's effective monetary policy framework, particularly in light of the global inflationary pressures seen in advanced economies like the US and Germany.

India handled inflation much better than US, Germany and France: SBI Report

New Delhi: India's Consumer Price Index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> dropped to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, its lowest in nearly five years, largely driven by a decline in <keyword id="20028256" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable" source="keywords">vegetable</keyword> <keyword id="19900607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prices" source="keywords">prices</keyword>. However, despite this positive development, the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="State-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="State Bank of India">State Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) has cautioned that the path forward may be challenging, according to the SBI research report. The dramatic reduction in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to a mere 6.8 per cent in July, played a crucial role in achieving this multi-year low. The weighted contribution of vegetables to the overall CPI also shrank from 1.77 per cent in June to 0.55 per cent in July, underscoring their impact on the headline inflation figure. Additionally, the prices of fruits and fuel showed signs of moderation, contributing further to easing inflationary pressures. However, this broad-based relief was tempered by a slight uptick in core CPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices. The SBI's latest report highlights that the once-dominant "Follow the Fed" mantra appears to be waning, with an increasing number of central banks prioritizing domestic economic conditions over synchronizing with U.S. rate decisions, signaling a shift in global <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> dynamics. This decline in CPI marks the first time in half a decade that CPI inflation has dipped below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4 per cent, a feat largely attributed to a steep fall in vegetable prices. Core CPI rose from 3.12 per cent in June to 3.30 per cent in July, driven primarily by an increase in mobile tariffs. Notably, the transport and communication segment saw inflation rise sharply from 0.97 per cent in June to 2.48 per cent in July, indicating sector-specific pressures. The moderation in food inflation, which stood at 5.06 per cent year-on-year in July, was significantly influenced by a higher base effect. Despite this, concerns persist over the uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall, particularly in key foodgrain-producing states experiencing deficient precipitation. With La Nina conditions gaining strength, the possibility of excessive rainfall in August and September looms large, raising fears of crop damage that could reignite food price inflation. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures may persist, potentially exceeding the RBI's forecast of 4.5 per cent for FY25. The domestic growth momentum remains robust, with GDP expected to surpass 7 per cent in Q1 FY25. However, geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose risks to the growth outlook. The RBI, maintaining a tight liquidity stance to control inflation, has deferred potential rate cuts to December 2024 or February 2025. State-wise analysis reveals that the majority of states recorded CPI inflation rates below the national average, with only six out of 22 states experiencing higher-than-average inflation. Despite this, significant rural-urban inflation differentials were observed, with most states seeing higher inflation in rural areas compared to urban counterparts. Only four states reported higher urban inflation. Historically, when the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts its interest rates, global capital flows are impacted, prompting central banks in emerging markets to follow suit. However, while the Fed's recent rate hike cycle (2022-2023) saw a synchronized global response, the current rate-cutting phase is proving to be less coordinated. Central banks in countries like China, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, the UK, Canada, and the European Central Bank have already begun reducing rates, while the Fed is expected to initiate cuts in September 2024. India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 4.2 per cent in June 2024, down from a revised 6.2 per cent in May. The mining sector led the growth with a 10.3 per cent increase, followed by electricity at 8.6 per cent and manufacturing at 2.6 per cent. For the April-June 2024 period, industrial growth stood at 5.2 per cent, compared to 4.7 per cent in the same period the previous year. As India navigates the delicate balance between growth and inflation, the coming months will be critical in shaping the country's economic trajectory, especially with potential global shifts in monetary policy and the evolving monsoon season.

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Decline in bank deposits because of non-uniform tax treatment on various investment options: SBI report

ANI

SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal

ANI

India handled inflation much better than US, Germany and France: SBI Report

ANI

CPI inflation drops to lowest in five years but road ahead could be bumpy: SBI Report

ANI

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