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The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

Indian banks are expected to have steady growth in earnings and returns over the next 3–4 years, according to a recent report by Jefferies. It expects a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in loan growth for banks between FY24 and FY27, helmed by a supportive environment and expected adjustments in interest rates. "We expect steady growth in earnings and stable returns, Over FY24-27, the banks we cover should see 13% CAGRin loans We factor 25-50 bps cut in rates, &amp; depending on timing, NIMs will move," the report said. Depending on the timing, these rate cuts could impact banks' <keyword id="20076541" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-interest-margins" source="keywords">net interest margins</keyword> (NIMs), which measure the difference between interest income generated and interest paid to depositors. The report also notes that banks' net interest income (NII), a critical metric that is reflective of how much a bank earns from its lending, could grow at a steady 12% CAGR, which would support overall earnings growth. <h2>Rate cuts probable next year</h2>Per SBI Mutual Fund's monthly outlook for November 2024, while markets were initially speculating possible rate reductions in December this year or February next year these chances now stand dampened due to two reasons. First, elevated CPI numbers in September, which stood at a nine-month high, underlined the stickiness of food inflation. Secondly, RBI governor Das recently highlighted his hawkish stance at a conference, stating that "rate cuts at this stage would be premature and risky’. The report further adds that February 2025, or even April, would be a better time to discuss repo rate cuts in India. Even <keyword id="19985925" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-credit-growth" source="keywords">bank credit growth</keyword> has continued to outpace deposit growth for two years now. However, they seem to be inching closer in the recent past. For instance, in October 2024, while bank credit growth remained at 12.7%, the deposit growth rate followed closely at 11.8%. This also means that banks are witnessing an elevated bank credit-to-deposit ratio, standing at 77% in October. <h2>Risks in unsecured lending </h2>However, Jefferies noted some areas of caution that could influence growth in other revenue streams, particularly fees. Growth in fees may be at risk due to expected declines in the disbursal of unsecured loans, which generally carry higher interest rates and generate higher fees for banks. October saw stress and defaults rising in the unsecured lending space, prompting the RBI to intervene. As a result, unsecured loans by banks have only grown by 12.1%, the lowest since the pandemic. Despite these risks, the report expects banks' return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to remain healthy, underscoring the sector's stable profitability potential. The report also highlights that while the Nifty Banks index has risen by 19% over the past year, it has still underperformed the broader Nifty index, which delivered 27% returns in the same period. BSE Bankex has been along similar lines, generating returns worth 19% over one year. While the Nifty banks' index has a YTD (yield to date) of 7.63%, it continues to trail Nifty's YTD of 11.30%

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) has started its three-day monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Mumbai on Tuesday. The meeting will conclude on Thursday, when the RBI will announce its decisions on the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> and other matters. The repo rate, which has been maintained at 6.5 per cent since it was last increased in February 2023, is widely expected by experts to remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive bi-monthly policy review. Experts highlight that <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> in India remains above the RBI's target range, making it unlikely that the central bank will implement policy cuts until inflation reaches the target of 4 per cent. However, the expert added that the RBI may consider rate cuts in the October meeting. Banking expert Ashutosh Khajuria commented: "Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to hold the policy signalling Repo rate and wait for <keyword id="19979707" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Inflation" source="keywords">Consumer Price Inflation</keyword> to decisively fall below 4 per cent, the target rate. For the present, the continuation of the current stance is widely expected. MPC in India may change the stance and rate action by the beginning of the second half of the year in their October meeting at the earliest." The experts also noted that while <keyword id="20196112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="core-inflation" source="keywords">core inflation</keyword> has been contained and commodity prices, particularly metals, have dropped by 15-20 per cent from their 2024 peak, food inflation remains a concern and needs to be closely monitored to ensure stability in overall CPI numbers. The Managing Director of a major bank, who preferred not to be named, told ANI: "During the last policy meeting we could see some voting in favour of a <keyword id="19920203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cut" source="keywords">rate cut</keyword>. At the same time, we could see The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on July 11 said it is too early to talk on the interest rate cut due to the uncertain economic environment and inflation remaining close to five per cent. Considering both, our expectation is that the rate cut cycle may start from the next meeting and no change in <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> this time." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had also emphasised in the last policy briefing that food inflation is still a concern and that the regulator is not in a hurry to make a decision on rate cuts. A recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI) also noted that Consumer Price Inflation in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent for the financial year 2024-25, except for the months of September and October.

Repo rate cut unlikely in ongoing MPC meeting, but RBI may change it during October policy review: Experts

<ul><li>The reliability of FDs is appealing to seniors as they generally have a lower risk tolerance and prioritise capital preservation over high returns. </li><li><keyword id="20566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="senior-citizens" source="Orion">Senior citizens</keyword> usually get a slightly higher interest in FDs. </li><li>FDs can help senior citizens effectively manage liquidity as well as <keyword id="37018" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="Orion">interest rate</keyword> risk. </li></ul>Senior citizens often prefer investing in <keyword id="6377620" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-deposits" source="Orion">fixed deposits</keyword> (FDs) due to the safety and stability these instruments offer. FDs provide a secure investment avenue with a guaranteed return on the principal amount, making them a low-risk option, especially for retirees seeking steady income streams. The reliability of FDs is appealing to seniors as they generally have a lower risk tolerance and prioritise capital preservation over high returns. The ease of FD investment, with options for short or long-term deposits, aligns well with the financial planning needs of seniors, providing them with a sense of financial security and a dependable source of income during retirement. Between May 2022 and February 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) raised the repo rate by a cumulative 2.5%. This significant increase was a major driver of higher <keyword id="418668" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fd-rates" source="Orion">FD rates</keyword> throughout 2023. Even though the RBI has maintained status quo henceforth, FD rates continue to remain on the higher side, thus making them attractive. “Senior citizens usually get 50 to 100 bps more interest than the general public by investing in fixed deposits. But the interest income is taxable at the hands of investors if the tenure is less than 5 years,” says Abhishek Kumar, founder and chief<a href="https://business.outlookindia.com/invest/investment"> </a>investment advisor at SahajMoney, a financial planning firm. Sr Citizen FD rates at a glance <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#1465c9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Bank Name </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#1465c9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Less than 1 year </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#1465c9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1 year to 5 years </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#1465c9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">More than 5 years </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">SBI </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3.50% p.a. to 6.25% p.a. </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.00% p.a. to 7.50% p.a. </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.50% p.a. </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Punjab National Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.00% p.a. to 6.75% p.a. </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.25% p.a. to 7.75% p.a. </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.30% p.a. </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Bank of Baroda </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3.50% to 6.75% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.25% p.a. to 7.75% p.a. </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.50% p.a. </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">HDFC Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3.50% p.a. to 6.50% p.a. </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.10% p.a. to 7.65% p.a. </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.75% p.a. </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Axis Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3.50% p.a to 6.50% p.a </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.20% p.a. to 7.60% p.a. </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.68181825pt;vertical-align:top;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.75% </td></tr></tbody></table> What to keep in mind When investing in FDs, senior citizens need to take a few things into account. When the rates are good, one can lock in some of their savings into FDs. “I advise senior citizens against locking all their disposable funds into FDs particularly of just one tenor,” says Akshar Shah, Founder, Fixed Invest, a digital marketplace of banks and NBFCs. “Senior citizens can use FD laddering to effectively manage liquidity as well as interest rate risk where they divide their savings into FDs of different tenors across years,” he adds. FD laddering involves diversifying FDs into multiple accounts with varying maturity dates. Instead of investing a lump sum in a single FD, individuals distribute their funds across different FDs maturing at different intervals—short-term, medium-term, and long-term. As each FD reaches maturity, it can be reinvested or withdrawn as needed, providing regular access to funds while potentially benefiting from higher interest rates on longer-term deposits. This strategy offers liquidity, steady returns, and flexibility in managing financial goals.

Senior citizen FDs: With interest rates at a high, time to park safe

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

The State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) in its latest report has asked for <keyword id="20213295" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-reforms" source="keywords">tax reforms</keyword> after concerns were flagged over the recent decline in <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword>. The report says tax Reforms for Deposits can accentuate the banking system's stability and resilience to the next level. SBI attributed the fall in deposits to the varied rates of return offered by different <keyword id="20139443" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-options" source="keywords">investment options</keyword> for similar time frames and different tax rates on <keyword id="22837794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="returns-on-deposits" source="keywords">returns on deposits</keyword>. The <keyword id="20352499" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-report" source="keywords">SBI report</keyword> said that "<keyword id="20658792" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-treatment" source="keywords">Tax treatment</keyword> of bank and non-bank channels are non-uniform, even as bank deposits have a wider and denser pass-through effect across the populace sensitivity of Deposits on Tax is as much as 7 per cent" The report noted that a bank deposit of Rs 10 lac in a Savings Bank (SB) account at an investment return of 3 per cent would generate Rs 30,000 in returns and after accounting for taxes and exemptions, the <keyword id="22837795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-return" source="keywords">net return</keyword> would be Rs 16,000. The report adds that the net returns vary significantly if deposits are made in different instruments like <keyword id="21041176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="term-deposits" source="keywords">term deposits</keyword>, short and long-term investments in debt funds, liquid funds or bonds. The tax rates on these deposits also favour saving banks or term deposits. The report illustrates a term deposit of up to one year with the same principal amount of Rs 10 lac at a yield of 6.25 per cent would result in a net return of Rs 50,000 after taxes. But for term deposits exceeding one year the interest rate is higher and with an interest rate of 7.25 per cent, the gross return would be Rs 72,500. After taxes, the net return would be Rs 58,000. The data highlights that similar type of investments for the same period generates significantly different returns because of different tax treatment by the government. Similar variations are observed in other <keyword id="20105084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-plans" source="keywords">investment plans</keyword> as well. For instance, investments in equity and mutual funds with a 2 per cent dividend income of Rs 10,00,000 generate Rs 20,000, which after taxes the net return is Rs 16,000. However, Short-term investments of less than one year in equity and mutual funds, offering an 11 per cent return generate Rs 1,10,000, with a net return of Rs 88,000 after taxes. This investment if made in Long-term investments of more than one year the return increases to 15% on Rs 10,00,000 and generates Rs 1,50,000 annually. With a lower tax bracket of 12.5 per cent tax on long-term investments and applicable exemptions, the net return is Rs 1,43,750. These variations in returns across different deposits and investment options highlight the complexity and thus investors are choosing the higher return options over the bank deposits which in turn poses a threat to the deposit growth in the banking sector.

Decline in bank deposits because of non-uniform tax treatment on various investment options: SBI report

<ul><li><keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">Food inflation</keyword> is expected to be elevated due to the heat wave’s impact on cereal and pulse prices.</li><li>Analysts mostly see shallow <keyword id="6752353" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="Orion">rate cuts</keyword> that might come in the third quarter of FY25, as the inflation picture emerges.</li><li>The Indian economy’s Goldilocks moment is continuing and might weigh on GDP growth projections of FY25 at 7%. </li></ul>The ongoing heatwave conditions, and projections of a harsher summer, are likely to impact India’s agricultural output, leading to rising food inflation. This, among others, is expected to weigh heavily on the rate-setting panel or monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting that will start today. “We estimate food inflation to remain elevated above 7.5% in the first half of 2024 on the back of high cereals and pulses (legumes) inflation on the back of an ongoing heatwave in the country. Altogether, we estimate headline (retail) inflation to remain above 5% in 1H 2024,” says a report by Goldman Sachs. Core inflation, however, has been easing, and LPG price cuts are also expected to add to the disinflation process, albeit modestly. Most analysts expect inflation to average around 4.5% for FY25 — and cool after a spike in September. ‘Slightly soften hawkish forward guidance’ The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) which intends to maintain retail inflation at around 4%, might go for possible interest rate cuts only in the third quarter of FY25, surmise analysts. “We believe the stance should continue to be withdrawal of accommodation. RBI might cut rates only in the third quarter of FY25, such rate cut cycle is likely to be shallow,” said a report by SBI Research. In the meantime, there is ample room for the central bank to hold rates. "We do not expect any change in the policy rate, but a probable explicit or implicit change in stance cannot be ruled out. RBI may acknowledge that core inflation is trending down,” Parijat Agrawal, head – fixed income at Union Mutual Fund, said on the April policy. Apart from softening core inflation, easing liquidity conditions are also expected to provide comfort to the central bank. Thanks to active interventions by the RBI, government spending over the last month has softened inter-bank rates and short-term borrowing rates for bank and non-bank entities. “Liquidity conditions have eased in the past few weeks, with ongoing balance of payments surpluses and pre-election spending likely to keep liquidity conditions in check,” says a report by Barclays. Goldman forecasts one 25 basis-point cut each in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. “We expect the RBI to take comfort from declining core inflation, slightly soften its hawkish forward guidance, but remain cautious given upside risks to food inflation from weather shocks, and repricing of the Fed funds rate easing path,” it added. Signs of slack in the economy The central bank ‘upgraded’ its GDP growth rate expectation for FY24 to 7.3%. It also expects FY25’s growth rate to average at 7%. The market is keenly looking forward to RBI’s commentary on growth projections. As of now, there has been a mixed growth picture. Every economic indicator comes with a rider attached, which Barclays calls ‘signs of slack’ in the economy. For example, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in Q3 FY24, from 1.3% in the previous quarter. While manageable CAD is good news, it also expands during high periods of growth. The government also projected its fiscal deficit to fall to 5.1% in FY25 as compared to 5.8% in FY24. These targets are to be achieved by moderation in government capex and lowering of expenditure. “The latter implies limited direct support to consumption demand from the budget, which, while positive for inflation, also means the fiscal impulse on growth has moderated compared with earlier years,” says Barclays. Economic indicators are also mixed. While cargo traffic, air passenger numbers, and toll collection are falling, vehicle sales are seeing double-digit growth in the last quarter of FY24. “High-frequency activity data remains strong, with our proprietary indices tracking a rebound in consumption growth at 7.9% yoy in Jan-March of 2024 (vs 3.5% in December quarter), but slower investment growth at 2.3% yoy (vs. 10.6% YoY in December quarter) as the government has front-loaded capex,” says Goldman Sachs. The Goldilocks moment of the Indian economy is raising expectations that the RBI might take a call based on the same. “Eventually, we think the RBI will have to consider the balance of risks between overtightening (given the 'not-too-hot-nor-too-cold' state of the economy) and maintaining monetary policy conditions for achieving reasonably good real GDP growth of at least 7%,” says Barclays.

With food inflation looming large, ‘shallow rate’ cuts expected only in Q3 FY25

New Delhi: <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> has demonstrated a largely successful inflation targeting regime compared to advanced economies such as the USA, Germany, and France, according to a research report by the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" source="keywords">State Bank of India</keyword> (SBI). The report credits government initiatives, the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>, and banks for addressing these issues over the past decade, allowing for better policy transmission and improved inflation management. "The success of Inflation Targeting in India is largely a byproduct of a vibrant financial ecosystem where <keyword id="23140158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi-government" source="keywords">RBI, Government</keyword> and the Banks are working closely in unison in ushering in market reforms" said the report The report highlighted that India experienced minimal deviations from its inflation targets between 2021 and 2024, setting it apart from other global economies facing greater inflationary challenges. It added that during 2021-2024, India recorded one of the lowest deviations from its inflation targets, highlighting the effectiveness of its inflation control measures. This success, the report points out, is largely a result of coordinated efforts between the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) and the central government. "India had a largely successful inflation targeting regime. Compared to advanced economies like the USA, Germany" said the report. As per the report the synchronization of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly during the pandemic, played a key role in maintaining price stability. It also emphasized that India's pre-inflation targeting regime faced several challenges that hindered the effective transmission of monetary policy. These challenges included sustained fiscal dominance, the presence of a large informal sector, significant informal financing, and inefficiencies in how banks priced their loan products. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in India's pre-Inflation Targeting regime was constrained by several India specific factors that affected transmission of the policy impulses through the interest rate channel" the report added. However, one of the key arguments in the report is that the RBI's inflation targeting has anchored inflationary expectations, even as food inflation remains high. The notion that headline inflation should exclude food prices was dismissed as counterfactual by the report. According to the study, the RBI's success in targeting inflation, despite food price volatility, has prevented a spill-over from food inflation to core inflation. The report stressed that the RBI's consistent communication of its inflation target--set at 4 per cent--has been crucial in successfully anchoring inflation expectations. By reinforcing its commitment to this target, the RBI has helped stabilize inflationary trends across the broader economy. The SBI report reinforces India's effective monetary policy framework, particularly in light of the global inflationary pressures seen in advanced economies like the US and Germany.

You Searched For "sbi fd interest rates" and got 10 results

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

Ira Alok Puranik

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

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Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

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Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

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Repo rate cut unlikely in ongoing MPC meeting, but RBI may change it during October policy review: Experts

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Senior citizen FDs: With interest rates at a high, time to park safe

Anagh Pal

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Ira Alok Puranik

Decline in bank deposits because of non-uniform tax treatment on various investment options: SBI report

ANI

With food inflation looming large, ‘shallow rate’ cuts expected only in Q3 FY25

Katya Naidu

India handled inflation much better than US, Germany and France: SBI Report

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