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A research report by the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" source="keywords">State Bank of India</keyword> (SBI) highlights the continuous upward trend in credit growth in Indian <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword>, which is outpacing the growth of deposits. This trend persists even as Indian households have substantially increased their investments in <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and equities. For the last several months, investments of over Rs 21,000 crore are being done in mutual funds. Last month, during an event, <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="keywords">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> noted that households are opting for capital markets over banks to invest or park their savings. However, the <keyword id="20352499" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-report" source="keywords">SBI report</keyword> states, "Latest fortnightly credit and deposit growth number shows credit growth continues to outpace deposit, though moderated from last year growth of 16.2 percent (June'23 YoY)." Specifically, for the fortnight ending July 12, 2024 the report noted that the credit growth for All Scheduled Commercial Banks stood at 14 per cent on a year-on-year basis, while deposit growth was reported at 11.3 per cent. Furthermore, the report also served a significant increase in credit to the industrial sector, which rose from 5.1 percent in March 2023 to 8.4 percent in March 2024, and recorded 8.1 percent growth in June 2024 year-on-year. This indicates a robust demand for credit within the industrial sector. Despite big savings going towards the capital markets, banks have managed to gather an incremental deposit of Rs 7.02 lakh crore in the year-to-date (YTD) period ending July 12, 2024. In comparison, the incremental credit extended by the banks amounted to Rs 3.80 lakh crore during the same period. This discrepancy illustrates that while credit growth is substantial, deposit growth remains essential to maintain balance. Additionally, the report highlighted that banks' reliance on high-cost deposits, such as Certificates of Deposit (CDs), has more than tripled. This increase is a response to the need to match the rising credit demand, showing how banks are adjusting their funding strategies to accommodate the growing demand for loans. <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> Governor stated last month, "While bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of the financial assets owned by the households, their share has been declining, with households increasingly allocating their savings to Mutual Funds, Insurance Funds, and Pension Funds."

Credit growth in banks continues to exceed deposits, says new SBI report

In a significant diplomatic move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu at <keyword id="20751669" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hyderabad-House" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Hyderabad House" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Hyderabad House">Hyderabad House</keyword> in Delhi on Monday. This visit is widely seen as an effort to reset ties between the two nations after a year of tense relations. <keyword id="20101322" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="President-Muizzu" source="keywords">President Muizzu</keyword>, who arrived in India on Sunday for a five-day visit, received a red carpet welcome. During a joint press briefing, President Muizzu expressed heartfelt gratitude to India, thanking President Droupadi Murmu, <keyword id="19899320" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PM-Modi" source="keywords">PM Modi</keyword> and the people of India for their warm reception. He emphasised the Maldives' deep-rooted ties with India, noting that tourism — especially Indian visitors—remains a crucial pillar of the Maldivian economy. “India is our largest source market for tourists, and we hope to welcome even more Indian visitors in the future,” Muizzu remarked. Key areas of cooperation discussed included economic ties and maritime security, critical given the Maldives' position in the Indian Ocean. Following their talks, India granted the financially struggling Maldives a rollover of USD 100 million in Treasury bills, in addition to formalising a <keyword id="23458604" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="currency-swap-agreement" source="keywords">currency swap agreement</keyword> and a ₹3,000 crore currency swap. Prime Minister Modi characterised the "development partnership" as a key component of India-Maldives relations, asserting that India has consistently prioritised the needs of the Maldivian people. "Our development partnership is vital to our relationship with the Maldives, and we have always placed importance on the priorities of its people. This year, SBI rolled over USD 100 million in Treasury Bills, and a USD 400 million currency swap agreement was signed based on the Maldives' requirements," he explained. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="106837748" title="Withdraw troops by mid-March, Maldives tells India" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>In September, India announced that the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="State-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="State Bank of India">State Bank of India</keyword> would purchase Maldivian government bonds worth USD 50 million, following a similar USD 50 million transaction in May 2024. Additionally, Prime Minister Modi and President Muizzu witnessed the first <keyword id="20563654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RuPay-card" source="keywords">RuPay card</keyword> payment transaction launched in the Maldives and virtually inaugurated the runway at Hanimaadhoo International Airport. Modi stated that India and the Maldives would soon be connected through UPI. "Recently, we launched the RuPay card in the Maldives, and in the future, we will link both countries via UPI," he said during a joint press briefing. Muizzu also expressed his desire to conclude a <keyword id="19945642" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Free-Trade-Agreement" source="keywords">Free Trade Agreement</keyword> with India, a step he believes will open the door to greater Indian investment in the Maldives. Modi emphasised India's commitment to supporting the Maldives through various initiatives, including supplying essential commodities and Covid vaccines, inaugurating airports, and constructing social housing. He noted that a new drinking water project is now operational on 28 islands, providing clean water to over 30,000 residents. The leaders also discussed the opening of consulates in Addu and Bengaluru. Tensions between India and the Maldives escalated following Muizzu's election last year, which saw a shift towards a pro-China stance and the promise to withdraw Indian troops stationed in the archipelago. His visit to China before India in January had raised eyebrows in New Delhi, as it was perceived as a slight. However, since attending Modi's swearing-in ceremony for a third term in June, Muizzu has moderated his anti-Indian rhetoric, signalling a thaw in relations. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has stated that the discussions provided "a new impetus" to the relationship. This meeting likely marks a positive turn in Indo-Maldivian relations, setting the stage for further cooperation between the two South Asian neighbours. (With inputs from agencies) <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112094153" title="Maldives President Muizzu thanks India for economic support, affirms hope of signing FTA" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

Maldives President Muizzu met with PM Modi in Delhi today. Here’s how it went!

New Delhi: The central government has approved the appointment of a new Chairman and <keyword id="19899229" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Managing-Director" source="keywords">Managing Director</keyword> of the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="State-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="State Bank of India">State Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) as the current Chairman, <keyword id="20944427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Dinesh-Kumar-Khara" source="keywords">Dinesh Kumar Khara</keyword>, is set to retire on August 28. According to a notification by the Department of Personnel &amp; Training, the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet (ACC) on August 6 approved the proposal of the Department of Financial Services for the appointment of <keyword id="22230591" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Challa-Sreenivasulu-Setty" source="keywords">Challa Sreenivasulu Setty</keyword> as chairman of SBI. The ACC has approved the appointment of Setty, 59, the current Managing Director (MD) of SBI as the new Chairman of the country's biggest lender, for a period of three years, effective from the date he assumes office, on or after August 28, 2024. The government order states, "The Appointments Committee of the Cabinet (ACC) has approved the proposal of the Department of Financial Services for the appointment of Shri Challa Sreenivasulu Setty (DOB: 26.09.1965), Managing Director (MD), State Bank of India (SBI) as Chairman, SBI for a period of three (03) years w.e.f. the date of assumption of charge of the office, on or after 28.08.2024." Additionally, Rana Ashutosh Kumar Singh, the current Deputy Managing Director (DMD) of SBI, has been appointed as the new Managing Director. His appointment will take effect from the date he assumes office. The government order read, "The Appointments Committee of the Cabinet (ACC) has approved the proposal of the Department of Financial Services for appointment of Shri Rana Ashutosh Kumar Singh, Deputy Managing Director (DMD), State Bank of India (SBI) as Managing Director (MD) in SBI with effect from the date of assumption of office." According to SBI, Challa Sreenivasulu Setty joined the Board of SBI as Managing Director in January 2020 and currently oversees International Banking, Global Markets, and Technology wings of the Bank. He has previously headed the Retail &amp; Digital Banking vertical and various task forces/committees formed by the Government of India. Setty holds a Bachelor of Science in Agriculture and is a Certified Associate of the Indian Institute of Bankers. He began his career with SBI in 1988 as a Probationary Officer. Over his three-decade-long career, he has gained rich experience in corporate credit, retail, digital, and international banking, as well as banking in developed markets. Setty has also held key positions within SBI, including Deputy Managing Director - Stressed Assets Resolution Group, Chief General Manager, and General Manager in the Corporate Accounts Group, Deputy General Manager in the Mid-Corporate Group, and Vice President &amp; Head (Syndications) at SBI's New York Branch. (ANI)

Centre approves appointments of new Chairman, Managing Director of State Bank of India

New Delhi: <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> has demonstrated a largely successful inflation targeting regime compared to advanced economies such as the USA, Germany, and France, according to a research report by the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" source="keywords">State Bank of India</keyword> (SBI). The report credits government initiatives, the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>, and banks for addressing these issues over the past decade, allowing for better policy transmission and improved inflation management. "The success of Inflation Targeting in India is largely a byproduct of a vibrant financial ecosystem where <keyword id="23140158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi-government" source="keywords">RBI, Government</keyword> and the Banks are working closely in unison in ushering in market reforms" said the report The report highlighted that India experienced minimal deviations from its inflation targets between 2021 and 2024, setting it apart from other global economies facing greater inflationary challenges. It added that during 2021-2024, India recorded one of the lowest deviations from its inflation targets, highlighting the effectiveness of its inflation control measures. This success, the report points out, is largely a result of coordinated efforts between the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) and the central government. "India had a largely successful inflation targeting regime. Compared to advanced economies like the USA, Germany" said the report. As per the report the synchronization of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly during the pandemic, played a key role in maintaining price stability. It also emphasized that India's pre-inflation targeting regime faced several challenges that hindered the effective transmission of monetary policy. These challenges included sustained fiscal dominance, the presence of a large informal sector, significant informal financing, and inefficiencies in how banks priced their loan products. "Effectiveness of monetary policy in India's pre-Inflation Targeting regime was constrained by several India specific factors that affected transmission of the policy impulses through the interest rate channel" the report added. However, one of the key arguments in the report is that the RBI's inflation targeting has anchored inflationary expectations, even as food inflation remains high. The notion that headline inflation should exclude food prices was dismissed as counterfactual by the report. According to the study, the RBI's success in targeting inflation, despite food price volatility, has prevented a spill-over from food inflation to core inflation. The report stressed that the RBI's consistent communication of its inflation target--set at 4 per cent--has been crucial in successfully anchoring inflation expectations. By reinforcing its commitment to this target, the RBI has helped stabilize inflationary trends across the broader economy. The SBI report reinforces India's effective monetary policy framework, particularly in light of the global inflationary pressures seen in advanced economies like the US and Germany.

India handled inflation much better than US, Germany and France: SBI Report

New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

<keyword id="19898109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Paytm" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Paytm" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Paytm">Paytm</keyword> has regained approval from the National Payments Corporation of India (<keyword id="19998946" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NPCI" source="keywords">NPCI</keyword>) to onboard new UPI users, marking a significant turnaround for the fintech giant. This development follows a setback earlier this year when <keyword id="20410154" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Paytm-Payments-Bank-Limited" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Paytm Payments Bank Limited" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Paytm Payments Bank Limited">Paytm Payments Bank Limited</keyword> (PPBL), an associate company of Paytm, was barred from adding new users to its UPI platform due to regulatory concerns raised by the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). <h2>Paytm gets permission to onboard new UPI users </h2> In a regulatory filing on Tuesday evening, Paytm disclosed that NPCI granted permission for the company to resume onboarding UPI users, provided it complies with all procedural guidelines and circulars issued by the corporation. “We would like to inform you that vide letter dated October 22, 2024, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) has granted approval to the Company to on-board new UPI users, with adherence to all NPCI procedural guidelines and circulars,” Paytm said in the filing. This move is seen as a relief for the company, which has been under scrutiny following the RBI’s intervention in January. The NPCI, which had previously allowed Paytm to operate as a Third-Party Application Provider (TPAP) for UPI transactions, has now reinstated its ability to bring new users onto the platform, albeit with strict conditions. Paytm can continue UPI operations through its partnerships with major banking institutions, including SBI, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and YES Bank. The NPCI’s approval comes after a thorough review of Paytm’s compliance with procedural guidelines, including those pertaining to risk management, app branding, multi-bank participation, and data privacy. The fintech firm has been instructed to adhere to key regulatory frameworks, such as the Payments and Settlement Act of 2007 and the Digital Personal Data Protection Act of 2023. This approval follows a request by Paytm’s parent company, <keyword id="20253123" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="One97-Communications" source="keywords">One97 Communications</keyword> Ltd (OCL), in August, seeking permission to resume UPI onboarding. The NPCI’s decision also reflects that Paytm has addressed concerns raised in the RBI’s directive from earlier this year, which had highlighted persistent non-compliance issues with its banking subsidiary, PPBL. On a related note, Paytm reported a strong financial performance for the quarter ending September 2024. The company posted a net profit of ₹928.3 crore, a marked improvement from the ₹290.5 crore loss it recorded during the same period last year. <h2>What had happened? </h2> For the unversed, in January 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) told Paytm Payments Bank Limited (PPBL) to stop accepting deposits and processing UPI top-ups. This decision stemmed from ongoing concerns about the bank’s compliance and serious issues that needed addressing. As a result, Paytm found itself unable to onboard new UPI users, significantly disrupting its growing customer base and raising doubts about its future in the crowded <keyword id="19989657" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-payments" source="keywords">digital payments</keyword> market. However, things took a turn for the better in March 2024 when the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) gave Paytm the green light to resume UPI transactions. The catch? Paytm could only operate as a Third-Party Application Provider (TPAP), meaning it had to partner with established banks like SBI, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, and YES Bank for its UPI services. While this arrangement posed some limitations, it allowed Paytm to keep moving forward and adapt to the regulatory challenges it faced in India’s digital payment landscape. (with PTI inputs)

Paytm can onboard new UPI users again, receives NPCI nod months after RBI restrictions

New Delhi: India's Consumer Price Index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> dropped to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, its lowest in nearly five years, largely driven by a decline in <keyword id="20028256" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable" source="keywords">vegetable</keyword> <keyword id="19900607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prices" source="keywords">prices</keyword>. However, despite this positive development, the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="State-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="State Bank of India">State Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) has cautioned that the path forward may be challenging, according to the SBI research report. The dramatic reduction in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to a mere 6.8 per cent in July, played a crucial role in achieving this multi-year low. The weighted contribution of vegetables to the overall CPI also shrank from 1.77 per cent in June to 0.55 per cent in July, underscoring their impact on the headline inflation figure. Additionally, the prices of fruits and fuel showed signs of moderation, contributing further to easing inflationary pressures. However, this broad-based relief was tempered by a slight uptick in core CPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices. The SBI's latest report highlights that the once-dominant "Follow the Fed" mantra appears to be waning, with an increasing number of central banks prioritizing domestic economic conditions over synchronizing with U.S. rate decisions, signaling a shift in global <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> dynamics. This decline in CPI marks the first time in half a decade that CPI inflation has dipped below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4 per cent, a feat largely attributed to a steep fall in vegetable prices. Core CPI rose from 3.12 per cent in June to 3.30 per cent in July, driven primarily by an increase in mobile tariffs. Notably, the transport and communication segment saw inflation rise sharply from 0.97 per cent in June to 2.48 per cent in July, indicating sector-specific pressures. The moderation in food inflation, which stood at 5.06 per cent year-on-year in July, was significantly influenced by a higher base effect. Despite this, concerns persist over the uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall, particularly in key foodgrain-producing states experiencing deficient precipitation. With La Nina conditions gaining strength, the possibility of excessive rainfall in August and September looms large, raising fears of crop damage that could reignite food price inflation. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures may persist, potentially exceeding the RBI's forecast of 4.5 per cent for FY25. The domestic growth momentum remains robust, with GDP expected to surpass 7 per cent in Q1 FY25. However, geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose risks to the growth outlook. The RBI, maintaining a tight liquidity stance to control inflation, has deferred potential rate cuts to December 2024 or February 2025. State-wise analysis reveals that the majority of states recorded CPI inflation rates below the national average, with only six out of 22 states experiencing higher-than-average inflation. Despite this, significant rural-urban inflation differentials were observed, with most states seeing higher inflation in rural areas compared to urban counterparts. Only four states reported higher urban inflation. Historically, when the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts its interest rates, global capital flows are impacted, prompting central banks in emerging markets to follow suit. However, while the Fed's recent rate hike cycle (2022-2023) saw a synchronized global response, the current rate-cutting phase is proving to be less coordinated. Central banks in countries like China, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, the UK, Canada, and the European Central Bank have already begun reducing rates, while the Fed is expected to initiate cuts in September 2024. India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 4.2 per cent in June 2024, down from a revised 6.2 per cent in May. The mining sector led the growth with a 10.3 per cent increase, followed by electricity at 8.6 per cent and manufacturing at 2.6 per cent. For the April-June 2024 period, industrial growth stood at 5.2 per cent, compared to 4.7 per cent in the same period the previous year. As India navigates the delicate balance between growth and inflation, the coming months will be critical in shaping the country's economic trajectory, especially with potential global shifts in monetary policy and the evolving monsoon season.

CPI inflation drops to lowest in five years but road ahead could be bumpy: SBI Report

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

<ul><li>Three banks would be most impacted by the move as their capital ratios would be affected by 30-85 basis points.</li><li>Capital buffers will have to be further strengthened by banks if they want to lend to consumers for unsecured loans.</li><li>Borrowers with more than five personal loans rose from 1% in 2018 to 7.7% in March 2023, as per a report.</li></ul> Shares of <keyword id="116253" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="sbi-cards" source="Orion">SBI Cards</keyword>, RBL Bank, <keyword id="6357149" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="hdfc-bank" source="Orion">HDFC Bank</keyword> and <keyword id="6653" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="icici-bank" source="Orion">ICICI Bank</keyword> are expected to come under pressure after the Reserve Bank of India asked lenders on Thursday to set aside more capital for consumer loans. This move is expected to impact the capital buffers of these banks. According to analysts, these banks would be most impacted by the move as their capital ratios would be affected by 30-85 basis points. For banks the first line of defense against bad loans is CET Tier 1 capital or Common Equity Tier 1 capital (CET1), which is the highest quality of regulatory capital, as it absorbs losses immediately when they occur. According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the CET 1 impact would be maximum for RBL/HDFC Bank/ICICI Bank at 84 basis points/72 basis points/64 basis points. Among non banks, SBI Cards would be the most vulnerable with a 416bp impact on capital ratios. Capital buffers will have to be further strengthened by banks if they want to lend to consumers for unsecured loans. If a bank had to set aside say ₹20 for loans, it will now have to set aside 25% more for every unsecured loan it issues. Not just this the banks will have to set aside more capital if they want to lend to shadow banks or non banking financial institutions as well. When cost of capital increases, so will lending rates. In the years after the pandemic broke, unsecured personal loans to retail borrowers have been on a steady rise. Not just banks but even non banks have been merrily issuing such loans to borrowers, and in many cases these borrowers have multiple such loans used for consumption. From 12-14% these loans are now growing at 30% rate. The central bank has cracked down on some non banks for not adhering to norms while underwriting such small ticket loans. The red flags have been flying high for a while now. According to proprietary research done by UBS, borrowers with more than five personal loans rose from 1% in 2018 to 7.7% in March 2023. New disbursement of personal loans to borrowers with weaker credit profiles accounted for 22% of disbursements. Of all banks, UBS was of the view that state-owned banks and non banking financial companies had a much higher share of weak borrowers compared to private banks. Analysts believe that pressure on net interest margins and higher credit costs to impact earnings of banks and shadow banks over FY24 and FY25. Paytm, a fintech company, has recently built a large loan portfolio which is mostly comprised of personal loans. With the <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> cracking down on these loans, the loan growth will be impacted for Paytm too. Deepak Shenoy, CEO of Capital Mind, took to social media to explain the impact, “See how it affects SBI cards: SBI Cards had credit card receivables of ₹ 45,000 crore with 23% capital adequacy ratio (CAR). So ₹10,500 cr in capital (23% of ₹45Kcr). Increase risk weight to 125% means ₹45K cr=₹56K cr risk weighted assets.” Shenoy explains that if “SBI Cards wants to grow, and keep high CARs (min is 15% I think?) they’ll need to raise capital and dilute. Which means for the same profit = higher capital. Means lower ROEs.” ALSO READ: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/markets/news/foreign-investors-continue-to-bet-big-on-banks-and-nibbling-on-small-and-mid-cap-stocks/articleshow/104462273.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Borrowers with multiple personal loans a big risk to profitability of banks and NBFCs</a>

RBI tightens norms on personal loans for banks and NBFCs; stocks to be under pressure

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

It takes an Oscar-worthy director to come up with the juicy drama that somehow seems to pervade India’s pre-general election seasons. Amid all the chaos, a political hot topic has just witnessed a major development: the electoral bonds row. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="What are electoral bonds?" comment="subhead" text="What are electoral bonds?">What are electoral bonds?</cmsannotation> For those unversed in the whole episode, the government introduced the <keyword id="4697813" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="electoral-bond" source="Orion">Electoral Bond</keyword> Scheme via the Finance Act of 2016-2017, allowing anyone to anonymously make an indefinite number of non-capped donations to their preferred political parties. Before this scheme, all donations above Rs 20,000 had to be explicitly made public, and donations of more than a certain percentage of the company’s revenue were disallowed. Such restrictions were meant to ensure that no political party had an unfair monetary advantage over the others and that the policies would not be influenced by the rich. Therefore, many experts were concerned that this new lack of transparency in the donation process opened up a gaping avenue for big corporations to donate for favourable outcomes from the ruling regime in terms of acquiring licences, government contracts, leases, and even accelerating favourable policy changes. The government insists that the measure ensures transparency as the purchaser would be allowed to buy bonds only on due fulfilment of all the extant KYC norms and by making payment from a bank account. However, the opposition parties kept raising objections, with the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="congress" source="keywords">Congress</keyword> leader Rahul Gandhi terming the electoral bond scheme as a legalisation of the process of accepting bribes and commissions. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="How did the Supreme Court step in?" comment="subhead" text="How did the Supreme Court step in?">How did the <keyword id="19895345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="supreme-court" source="keywords">Supreme Court</keyword> step in?</cmsannotation> Recently, in a move that many celebrated as a major win for transparent and fair electoral practices, a Constitution Bench panel of five Supreme Court judges scrapped the Centre’s electoral bonds scheme on February 15, deeming that the whole ordeal was “unconstitutional” to begin with. Subsequently, the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" source="keywords">State Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) was ordered to disclose all details of the donors that had purchased electoral bonds, the amount purchased, and the recipients of these “support” donations. Nearly a month after the directive, SBI finally submitted the electoral data to the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-commission" source="keywords">Election Commission</keyword> on March 13, after the apex court denied its application for more time. The bank attributed the delay in compiling the information to the non-digital nature of the way electoral data was collected and stored, making it harder to collate and produce. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="What does the data reveal?" comment="subhead" text="What does the data reveal?">What does the data reveal?</cmsannotation> The data published by the Election Commission based on SBI’s affidavit revealed information on over 22,217 electoral bonds purchased between April 1, 2019 and February 1, 2024. This also means there exists a year’s worth of data missing from the first year of the electoral bonds scheme, amounting to hundreds of crores of Rupees. Further, the very content of the data remains lacklustre, many experts maintain. The problem is that individual electoral bonds do not have their serial numbers attached. This makes it impossible to accurately ascertain who these bonds were directed to, meaning we still do not know which corporations donated how much to which parties. Condemning the SBI for not divulging the unique serial numbers as per its previous full-disclosure directive, the Supreme Court has now issued a notice for a prompt response by March 18. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Which political party benefited the most?" comment="subhead" text="Which political party benefited the most?">Which political party benefited the most?</cmsannotation> While many political parties benefited from this scheme, the Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) encashed about 1,300 crores worth of electoral bonds during the 2023 financial year, according to media reports. This amounted to about half of the total electoral bond donations, and more than seven times the amount Congress received during the same period. Out of a total of 12,155 crores worth of electoral bonds purchased between 2019 and 2024, BJP redeemed Rs 6061 crores, followed by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress at Rs 1610 crores. A total of 213 donors purchased bonds worth over Rs 10 crores, with the top 20 donors accounting for nearly half of the total electoral bonds. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Are scams hiding behind the electoral bonds?" comment="subhead" text="Are scams hiding behind the electoral bonds?">Are scams hiding behind the electoral bonds?</cmsannotation> The ruling party receiving such a disproportionate share of the electoral bonds has raised many eyebrows. Rajya Sabha Minister Kapil Sibal expressed discontent with the SBI report, calling it a “scam” and explaining that it needs thorough investigation by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). Jharkhand Congress President Rajesh Thakur emphasised that a comprehensive study is essential to ascertain the true extent to which companies might have their money to get favour from the central government. Many Congress leaders, such as Manickam Tagore and Jairam Ramesh, also held that it was suspicious that only companies that donated funds to the BJP were given projects and contracts. The other problem is the fact that several of the big purchasers have been consistently under the radar of central agencies, facing frequent raids. This includes the top donor, Lottery company Future Gaming and Hotel Services, led by “Lottery King” Santago Martin, who donated a whopping Rs 1,368 crores. Many others also concern that large corporations may have donated money through shell corporations, in order to hide their involvement in any political favouritism. Congress MP Manish Tewari asked for a Supreme Court order to “lift” this corporate veil of shell companies to reveal the true purchasers of the bonds. Further, as per a Mint analysis, several donor companies who contributed massive amounts were found to be ‘inactive’, and thus the true details of the donors were not transparent at all. According to their report, this included entities such as Rungta Sons, SN Mohanty, Sasmal Infrastructure Private Limited, Avees Trading Finance, and others, whose collective contributions amount to hundreds of crores of Rupees. The official electoral bond data can be accessed via the <a href="https://www.eci.gov.in/candidate-politicalparty" data-type="tilCustomLink">Election Commission of India website</a>.

Electoral bonds: What are they? What does the newly-released data reveal? Would it make an impact?

The Indian <keyword id="22196321" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-card-industry" source="keywords">credit card industry</keyword> is struggling to grow, as new issues slow down on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. Not only has the growth i.e. issuance of new credit cards slowed down, but lenders are also becoming increasingly cautious of the asset qualities, a recent report by Nomura showed. From 19% in July 2024, the growth in the <keyword id="6368202" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-card" source="Orion">credit card</keyword> spendings came down to 13% in August 2024. The year-to-date (YTD) growth has also significantly declined in FY25, currently standing at 17%, markedly down from 28% in FY24. For the fifth consecutive month, the number of new credit cards added to the system remained well below the 1-million, or 10 lakh mark. Around 9.2 lakh credit cards were added during the month, a slight uptick from the 7.55 lakh cards that came into the system In July 2024. However, there is growth in this space nevertheless, with about 10.55 crore active credit cards at present, marking a 15.6% YoY increase. Even the annualised spend per card, or the average amount spent via an annual card during an year grew 1% YoY to Rs 1.87 lakh. But this was far less than the 7% growth annual spends via one credit card saw in FY24. Meanwhile, what continues to burgeon consistently is the outstanding amount on these credit cards, which ballooned to Rs 2.7 lakh crore in June 2024, up from Rs 2.6 lakh crore in March 2024, and around Rs 2 lakh crore in the year ago period. To put this in perspective, pre-pandemic, the total outstanding amount stood at Rs 87,686 crore, which marks a 24% CAGR in this amount, in just a span of 5 years. <h2>Large drops, slowdown to sustain</h2>Even the monthly expenditure per card dropped 2% YoY to Rs 16,000 in August, 2024. Subsequently, the transaction volume via credit cards also dipped to 1.6% in August, along with the total amount of <keyword id="21084888" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="credit-card-spending" source="keywords">credit card spending</keyword>, which fell to Rs 1.69 lakh crore in August, from Rs 1.73 lakh crore in July. Also, there has been a hefty cutdown in provisions made for credit card reward points, which reflects in the quantum of credit card benefits that have been mowed out by companies of late, making credit cards far less lucrative than before. <h2>HDFC takes lead </h2>During August 2024, <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC bank</keyword> added a total of 2.41 lakh credit cards, taking its total tally of active credit cards to 2.19 crore. <keyword id="19900482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICICI Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICICI Bank">ICICI Bank</keyword> came a second distant, adding 1.45 lakh credit cards during the month, which means that the second-largest credit card issuer now holds over 1.75 crore active credit cards. Axis Bank and SBI Cards also added 1.27 lakh and 1.1 lakh cards, respectively to their repertoire during the month, while the growth numbers at Kotak Mahindra Bank remained largely flat, stagnating the bank's total card tally at 54.13 lakh. This was due to the ongoing ban on the bank due to its weak IT infrastructural issues imposed by RBI in April 2024. If anything, the bank's number of credit cards declined by 61,191 during the month. Even as the festive season approaches, experts think that it is unlikely to make a major dent in credit card spendings, which are expected to see a further slowdown in the quarters to come.

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Credit growth in banks continues to exceed deposits, says new SBI report

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SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

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RBI tightens norms on personal loans for banks and NBFCs; stocks to be under pressure

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FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

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Electoral bonds: What are they? What does the newly-released data reveal? Would it make an impact?

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