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Post the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, the yellow metal has been scaling record highs every day. And per a recent <keyword id="22362020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UBS-report" source="keywords">UBS report</keyword>, its glitter is not going down anytime soon, with gold potentially touching $2,750 by the end of this year, and as much as $2,900 by the third quarter of 2025. <br /><br />Treasury yields, or interest rates have always had an inverse relationship with gold, which is why the metal's demand witnesses a notable uptick, every time the Fed slashes rates. This is because an interest rate cut reduces the yields i.e. returns that investors earn by way of having funds in government treasury bonds. As a result, investors tend to withdraw their money, weakening the dollar, thereby making the yellow metal a lucrative investment option.  <br /><br />Going ahead, the markets are anticipating that the Fed will further bring down interest rates again, by around 75-100 basis points by the end of this year. As the CME FedWatch Tool indicates, there is now a 62.2% chance that the Fed will cut down interest rates by another 50 basis point during its meeting in November. This is also why <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have been seeing a healthy growth in both domestic and international markets. According to a report by Angel One, the demand of safe-haven gold is only set to go up in the months to come. <br /><br />Apart from Fed's rate cuts and the upcoming <keyword id="20585365" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-elections" source="keywords">US elections</keyword>, there are tensions brewing globally on the geo-political front, with militant group Hezbollah's leader <keyword id="22445260" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sayyed-hassan-nasrallah" source="keywords">Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah</keyword> killed in a powerful airstrike in Beirut. This has dealt a heavy blow to the Iran-backed group, as it reels from an escalating campaign of Israeli attacks. "In such times, zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment, more likely so in a low-interest rate environment and also, during geopolitical turmoil", the note added. <br /><br /><h2>Momentum set to continue </h2>The bullion recently touched an  all-time high price of $2,670 on September 24th, 2024, and has rallied as much as 10% during the past 6 months. Closer home, we are approaching the festive season, as India gears up to celebrate festivals like Diwali (Dhanteras) and Akshaya Tritiya in October. These have long been associated with heightened gold purchases in the country. Particularly, Dhanteras sees a surge in gold buying as it is considered an auspicious time to acquire new assets, majorly gold. <br /><br />As the UBS report states, "the metal's current elevated starting point provides increased scope for gains in the coming months, particularly as ETF demand accelerates. We recommend gold as a strategic hedge within a diversified portfolio, suggesting a 5% allocation to the precious metal". <br /><br /> Alekh Yadav, Head of Investment Products at Sanctum Wealth, also advises making some allocation to gold in your portfolio, since gold has a negative correlation with equities; whenever equity markets correct, gold typically performs better. Given that US markets are currently at elevated valuations, gold can serve as a hedge against potential global equity corrections, he explains. <br /><br />"In conclusion, we believe that some allocation to gold, even at current levels, makes sense as a hedge against global risks", he continues. As a thumb rule, you should always have anywhere between 5-10% allocation to gold via digital gold, gold bonds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) etc., since it serves as an effective hedge against inflation, and declining yields. Note that your allocation to gold should not be arbitrary or as a lumpsum, but rather in sync with your overall financial goals, and also, should be increased gradually, via SIPs. <br /><br />However, during prevailing economic conditions, increasing your investments in gold might not be a bad idea as well. But remember to consult with your financial planner over this. Over-investing in gold is also not advisable, since the asset class does not generate high-returns, which means a significant potion of your money could be stuck in a non-yield generating asset, when it could have been in equities or other assets, which generate comparatively more returns. <br />

Is this a good time to invest in gold? Here's what experts are saying

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah has Russian anti-ship missiles, Reuters claims.</li><li>The missiles could be used to target US carrier groups deployed in the Middle East, it said.</li></ul><p>The Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah has obtained Russian anti-ship missiles capable of targeting US carrier groups posted near Israel, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollahs-anti-ship-missiles-bolster-its-threat-us-navy-2023-11-08/">Reuters reported.</a></p><p>In a speech last week Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah issued a veiled threat to the US, saying that the militant group had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-sailing-toward-israel-dangerous-waters-2023-10?r=US&amp;IR=T">weapons capable of striking US warships</a> in the region to deter attacks on Israel.</p><p>Reuters, citing unnamed sources, said that Nasrallah was talking about Russian Yakhont missiles which Hezbollah obtained while fighting alongside Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's forces in the Syrian civil war.</p><p>The missiles have a range of around 186 miles, and can be launched from ground, sea or air.</p><p>Speaking about the possibility that Hezbollah had acquired the weapons, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters: "This is news without any confirmation at all. We do not know if it is true or not."</p><p>A US official told the outlet: "We're obviously paying a lot of attention to that... and we're taking what capabilities they have seriously."</p><p>The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for further comment.</p><p>Hezbollah has not officially confirmed it has the missiles.</p><p>In the wake of the October 7 terrorist attacks, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-goal-october-7-attack-israel-gaza-war-2023-11?r=US&amp;IR=T">in which Hamas militants killed 1,400 Israelis, </a>Israel launched attacks on Gaza that killed more than 10,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities.</p><p>Hezbollah has clashed with Israeli forces over Israel's northern border, and Iran has menaced Israel with the prospect of attacks.</p><p>The US deployed two aircraft carrier groups to the region in a bid to stop the conflict from escalating. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uss-gerald-r-ford-tour-largest-aircraft-carrier-2017-12?r=US&amp;IR=T">USS Gerald R Ford strike group and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower</a> are currently in the eastern Mediterranean. The Ford can carry around 75 aircraft, while the Eisenhower can carry 60.</p>

The US carrier groups posted near Israel could be under threat from Hezbollah's new anti-ship missiles: report

<p data-reactid="32"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Ali Hashisho</span></p><p class="caption">A Hezbollah member reacts while Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah talks on a screen during a televised speech at a festival celebrating Resistance and Liberation Day, in Nabatiyeh May 24, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li data-reactid="32"><strong>Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan announced on state-media that acts of "aggression" by Lebanese Hezbollah "were considered acts of a declaration of war."</strong></li><li data-reactid="32"><strong>The statement comes amid Lebanon prime minister Saad al-Hariri's surprising resignation.</strong></li></ul><p data-reactid="32"><br />Saudi Arabia said on Monday that Lebanon had declared war against it because of attacks against the Kingdom by the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah.</p><p data-reactid="33">Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan told Al-Arabiya TV that Saad al-Hariri, who announced his resignation as Lebanon's prime minister on Saturday, had been told that acts of "aggression" by Hezbollah "were considered acts of a declaration of war against Saudi Arabia by Lebanon and by the Lebanese Party of the Devil."</p><p data-reactid="33">"We will treat the government of Lebanon as a government declaring a war because of Hezbollah militias," Sabhan said, according to state-owned news channel <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/11/07/Saudi-Arabia-We-will-treat-Lebanese-government-as-a-declaration-of-war.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Al Arabiya</a>.</p><p data-reactid="33">Sabhan's accusations reportedly included smuggling drugs and providing training for acts of terrorism.</p><p data-reactid="33">Hariri's resignation came as a surprise for many, particularly when he made his announcement during a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-lebanese-prime-minister-resigns-amid-tensions-with-hezbollah-2017-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">trip</a> to Saudi Arabia. The country is politically split between Saudi Arabia loyalists and Iran, which is represented by Hezbollah.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-runners-avoid-knee-pain-2016-11">A running coach explains the 2 most important activities runners should do to avoid knee pain</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Saudi Arabia says Lebanon has declared war on it

<p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><ul><li><strong>Saad al-Hariri resigned as Lebanon's prime minister during a trip to Saudi Arabia.</strong></li><li><strong>Two major Lebanese parties have alleged that the prime minister is not being allowed to return to Lebanon.</strong></li><li><strong>Hariri is politically supported by Saudi Arabia and has not been seen back in his home country since his resignation.</strong></li></ul><p><br>Two of Lebanon's major political forces seem to be aligning in blaming Saudi Arabia for the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri last weekend.</br></p><p>Both Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, and now, somewhat surprisingly, Hariri's own Saudi-backed Future Party have alleged that the prime minister is not being allowed to return to Lebanon.</p><p>Hariri - a dual Lebanese-Saudi citizen -&#xa0;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-lebanese-prime-minister-resigns-amid-tensions-with-hezbollah-2017-11">resigned on Saturday</a> during a trip to Saudi Arabia. Hariri is part of a joint government that includes Hezbollah, and he used his resignation speech to criticize that group and Iran.</p><p>Multiple Lebanese sources, as well as two US officials, <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-lebanon-politics-exclusive/exclusive-lebanon-believes-hariri-held-in-saudi-wants-foreign-pressure-top-officials-idUKKBN1D914I">told Reuters that Saudi Arabia was directly behind</a> Hariri's resignation. The Lebanese sources also said that Saudi Arabia was now controlling his movements, although to what degree is unclear.</p><p>The Lebanese prime minister is politically supported by Saudi Arabia and has not been seen back in his home country since his resignation.</p><p>A statement issued by Hariri's Future Party on Thursday said it was "necessary" for the prime minister to return "to restore Lebanon's dignity and respect."</p><p>"The statement read by former Prime Minister Fuad Saniora seemed to indicate that Hariri is being held in Saudi Arabia against his will," the Associated Press reported.</p><p>This is a marked change by Saniora and other members of the Future Party. Saniora told Reuters earlier this week that he had spoken to Hariri since his resignation and that the prime minister would be returning to Lebanon.</p><p>Nohad Machnouk, Lebanon's interior minister and a Future Party member, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/07/world/middleeast/lebanon-prime-minister.html">told The New York Times</a> that Hariri had reasons unrelated to Saudi Arabia to be frustrated with the Hezbollah-affiliated government. However, Machnouk also conceded that it looked like Saudi Arabia had at least orchestrated the timing of the prime minister's resignation.</p><p></p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div><h2>Political polar opposites align to blame Saudi Arabia</h2><p>The Future Party statement joins earlier remarks by their political rivals, Hezbollah, who also blamed Saudi Arabia for the prime minister's actions.</p><p>Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, said Sunday that Hariri's resignation was a "Saudi decision" that was "forced on him." Nasrallah also said there were "legitimate questions" in Lebanon about whether Hariri was being detained in Saudi Arabia.</p><p>The New York Times noted that the Monday front page of Al Akhbar, a newspaper that leans toward Hezbollah, called Hariri a "hostage."</p><p>Saudi Foreign Minister <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/06/middleeast/saudi-foreign-minister-interview/index.html">Adel Jubeir said in a CNN interview Monday</a> that claims Hariri was being held by Saudi Arabia were "nonsense," and that as a dual passport holder the Lebanese prime minister would be able to leave Saudi Arabia when he wanted.</p><p>Jubeir blamed Hezbollah for Hariri's resignation, saying, "it was Hezbollah who were calling the shots, and he basically said enough is enough."</p><p>Hariri has left Saudi Arabia once since his resignation, for a day trip to the United Arab Emirates, a close Saudi ally. He returned directly to Saudi Arabia after his visit to the UAE.</p><p>Two top Lebanese government officials told Reuters that Lebanon is planning to work with foreign governments to secure Hariri's return.</p><p>Saudi Arabia further stroked regional tension on Thursday, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-the-latest-saudi-arabia-tells-its-citizens-to-leave-lebanon-2017-11">ordering its citizens to leave</a> Lebanon. It's likely a further sign of increased pressure on their regional rival, Iran.</p><p>After Hariri's resignation, one member of <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/05/middleeast/middle-east-eventful-24-hours-analysis/index.html">Lebanon's Parliament told CNN</a>, "We are back to an escalation between Iran and Saudi Arabia on the Lebanese front."</p><p>The two US officials who spoke with Reuters indictated that Saudi pressure on Hariri to leave his post was led by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-mohammed-bin-salman-power-grab-2017-11">behind the weekend's landmark anti-corruption</a> purge.</p><p>Crown Prince Mohammed is consolidating power in a way Saudi Arabia hasn't seen in decades and now effectively controls the three pillars of Saudi Arabia's security apparatus - the Ministry of <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Defense">Defense</keyword>, the Ministry of the Interior, and the National Guard.</p><div></div>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nuclear-bomb-launch-procedure-us-government-president-2017-11">Here's how easy it is for the US president to launch a nuclear weapon</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div></hr>

It increasingly looks like Lebanon's prime minister is being held against his will by Saudi Arabia

<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Downtown_Beirut_Lebanon.JPG">Wikimedia Commons</a></p></div><p></p></div></div>BEIRUT (Reuters) - </span><a class="cite">Lebanon</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">'s Shi'ite militant Hezbollah group said on Wednesday one of its commanders was killed outside his Beirut home in an overnight attack it blamed on </span><a class="cite">Israel</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">.</span></p>
<p><a class="cite">Israel</a> denied any role in the killing of <a class="cite">Hassan al-Laqqis</a>, which Hezbollah said took place at around midnight in the southern Hadath district of the Lebanese capital.</p>
<p>A previously unknown group, <a class="cite">Ahrar al-Sunna Baalbek brigade</a>, claimed responsibility for the attack in a message on Twitter. The group's name suggested it had Lebanese Sunni Muslim links.</p>
<p>Hezbollah, which fought a 34-day war with <a class="cite">Israel</a> in 2006, has sent fighters into neighboring <a class="cite">Syria</a> to support President <a class="cite">Bashar al-Assad</a> against mainly Sunni Muslim rebels, an intervention which has helped fuel sectarian tension in <a class="cite">Lebanon</a>.</p>
<p>A source close to Hezbollah said Laqqis was a <keyword id="6359526" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Military">military</keyword> commander who had taken part in battles in <a class="cite">Syria</a>. He said he had been shot in the head with a silenced gun while in his car, in what he described as a professional operation.</p>
<p>Footage from the scene broadcast by Hezbollah's Al Manar television on Wednesday showed two bullet marks in a wall and muddy footprints it said had been left by possibly more than one assailant.</p>
<p>Hezbollah described Laqqis, who will be buried in the Bekaa Valley town of <a class="cite">Baalbek</a> later in the day, as "one of the leaders of the Islamic resistance" against <a class="cite">Israel</a> who had been frequently targeted by the Jewish state.</p>
<p>He had been with Hezbollah since its first days in the 1980s, when it was set up with Iranian support to fight Israeli troops occupying <a class="cite">south Lebanon</a>, and his son was killed in the 2006 war, Hezbollah said in a statement.</p>
<p>"The Israeli enemy tried to get to our martyr brother several times, in more than one location, but these attempts failed until this repugnant assassination," it said.</p>
<p><a class="cite">Israel</a> would "bear full responsibility and all the consequences for this heinous crime", it said.</p>
<p>But <a class="cite">Israel</a> denied involvement. "This has strictly nothing to do <a class="cite">Israel</a>," foreign ministry spokesman <a class="cite">Yigal Palmor</a>said.</p>
<p>"Hezbollah has made a fool of itself in the past with these automatic and groundless accusations against <a class="cite">Israel</a> ... If they are looking for explanations as to what is happening to them, they should examine their own actions."</p>
<p>The open role of Hezbollah fighters in the Syrian civil war, combined with a steady flow of Lebanese Sunnis joining the anti-Assad rebels, has fuelled sectarian strife in <a class="cite">Lebanon</a>.</p>
<p>Car bombs killed dozens of people in Beirut in August and a twin suicide attack on the <a class="cite">Beirut embassy</a> of Hezbollah's patron Iran killed at least 25 people last month.</p>
<p>An Iranian foreign ministry spokeswoman blamed <a class="cite">Israel</a> for that attack, but responsibility was claimed by a <a class="cite">Lebanon</a>-based al Qaeda-linked group, the <a class="cite">Abdullah Azzam</a> brigades.</p>
<p>Hezbollah leader <a class="cite">Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah</a> said he believed the group had support from <a class="cite">Saudi Arabia</a>, Iran's main regional rival whose backing for Assad's foes has pushed it deeper into a proxy conflict in <a class="cite">Syria</a> against <a class="cite">Tehran</a>.</p>
<p><a class="cite">Abdullah Azzam</a> "is not a fictitious name," Nasrallah said in an interview broadcast on Lebanese television on Tuesday night. "This group exists ... It has its leadership ... and I am convinced it is linked to <a class="cite">Saudi intelligence</a>," he said.</p>
<p>"<a class="cite">Saudi Arabia</a> is the one who runs these kinds of groups in several places in the world.</p>
<p>(Additional reporting by Oliver Holmes in Beirut and Crispian Balmer in Jerusalem; Editing by Alistair Lyon)</p>

Hezbollah Commander Assassinated In Beirut By Unknown Group

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Mandel Ngan/Pool/Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) speaks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow December 15, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Russia's pattern of airstrikes in Syria indicate that it is preparing a "plan B" should the regime fail to restore a central Syrian state and be forced to retreat to a fragment of government-held territory along the Mediterranean.</p><p>"A second option [for Russia] is to fall back to the defensible parts of useful Syria after guaranteeing the safety of the Alawi canton," Joseph Bahout, a visiting scholar in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=62313">wrote</a> of Russia in Carnegie's "Syria in Crisis" blog.</p><p><span><span>"This is perhaps already a consideration, as the majority of Russian airstrikes concentrate on the contours of this area."</span></span></p><p><span>Since intervening on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in late September, Russia has used airstrikes to create a buffer zone between rebel-held territory in the southern Idlib province and the traditional homeland of the Assads' Alawite sect in the Latakia governorate.</span></p><p><span>The airstrikes have also targeted rebel-controlled territory just north of Homs that borders this so-called Alawi canton. </span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Institute for the Study of War</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>"Based on the majority of Russian air strikes and SAA [Syrian Arab Army] fighting, the regime and Moscow are securing an Assadland or Alawistan," Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert at the Foundation for <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Defense">Defense</keyword> of Democracies (FDD), told Business Insider on Thursday, referring to a term <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/07/27/alawistan/">used by the foundation's Tony Badran</a> to describe the Alawi enclave in Latakia.</span></p><p><span>"The regime is taking land they think they can hold with the assistance of Russian air power. So first and foremost they are securing the regime."</span></p><h2><span>A 'new international order'</span></h2><p>To be sure, Assad's forces, with Russian air cover, are still battling to retain control over the two most symbolically and strategically important cities in Syria. Those are Damascus, the capital - which has been <span>long viewed by rebel forces as the key to winning the war - and Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city and main urban center in the north.</span></p><p><span>But even if the regime were to drive the rebels out of Aleppo and Damascus, holding the cities would require a significant commitment of funding and manpower.</span></p><p><span>The SAA was fatigued, overstretched, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-syrian-military-is-on-the-verge-of-collapse-2015-4">nearing the point of collapse</a> before Russian air cover helped the army regain territory. It would likely either need to be completely revamped, - or Russia would have to devote ground troops to fortifying the cities against counter-attacks that would likely continue as long as Assad is in power. </span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Amer Almohibany/Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Rebel fighters of Jaysh al-Islam (Army of Islam) carry their weapons as they walk along a street in Medaa town in the Eastern Ghouta of Damascus after they said they have taken control of the area from forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, May 6, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span><span>Solidifying a Russian "protectorate" in western Syria that is already held by the regime and dominated by a sect  of Shia Islam loyal to the Assads, however, would give "a tangible reality to Moscow's concept of a new international order." </span></p><p><span>That's according to Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tag/Europe">Europe</a><span> and a former EU ambassador, who wrote in Tu</span><span>rkey's English-language</span><span> newspaper </span><a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/assadland-a-russian-protectorate.aspx?pageID=449&amp;nID=88820&amp;NewsCatID=396">Hurriyet</a><span> </span><span>in September.</span></span></p><p><span>"To its snap annexation of Crimea and dominance of eastern Ukraine, Russia<span> is now adding 'Assadland,'" Pierini wrote. </span></span><span><em>"</em>In doing so, it is showing the rest of the world that it has the capacity to redefine the international order, or at least the guts to act as spoiler in chief."</span></p><h2><span>'An acceptable lesser of many evils'</span></h2><p><span>Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert and professor of Global Affairs at New York University, agreed that while an "Assadland" or "Alawistan" would not be the Kremlin's<span> first choice, it is "an acceptable lesser of many evils" for Russia.</span></span></p><p><span>"It is not that Moscow would be happy with an Alawite statelet, but it is obviously and inevitably thinking of fallback options should it not gets its ideal, which is an outright victory for Damascus," Galeotti told Business Insider on Friday. </span><span>"Given that the Russians are not so naive as to consider that a done deal, or even a likelihood, they will also have alternatives under consideration."</span></p><p><span>He added: "A defensible, economically-viable and politically more homogenous 'Alawistan' would both ensure they retain a client-ally in the region and yet also be a much more manageable unit to have to support and project."</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Khaled al-Hariri/Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">A poster showing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (L), Russian President Vladimir Putin (C) and Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is seen on a micro bus in al-Qardahah town, near Latakia city May 26, 2014.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span><span>It would also be appealing to Assad. A statelet<span> in the west </span><span>would ensure that the regime retain access to its key partner, Hezbollah, as well as to potential </span><span>offshore energy in the eastern Mediterranean</span><span>.</span></span></p><p>Significantly, this "solution" would likely be unacceptable to the predominantly Sunni interior and periphery of Syria that has been fighting to see Assad completely out of power - or dead - for nearly five years. Moreover, as Zilberman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said, an Assad stronghold along the coast would "continue to be a great recruiting tool for jihadis."</p><p>With negotiations over Syria's future due to begin in late January with Assad at the table, however, the partition of Syria in a way that would protect him and his family - and ensure Russia's continued relevance in the region - could very well form part of a negotiated long-term "solution" to the conflict.</p><p><span>"If you are part of, or back, the Syrian regime, it makes sense right?" Zilberman said. "If you can make it through this and retain some sort of state that the Assads can control in the future, then you've won."</span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/republican-presidential-candidate-politifact-lying-data-2015-12">Here are the Republican candidates who lie the most</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="BuY3hqeTq4lmdh4jILsvvvo9rC7LBbjC" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Russia has a 'plan B' for Syria that would allow it to 'redefine the international order'

<p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div>Two of the most important actors in the Syria conflict are the al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS, Sunni extremists groups that have attracted thousands of foreign recruits based on </span><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/09/02/the-islamic-state-vs-al-qaeda/">violently differing views</a> of how the global jihad should be waged<span>.</span></p>
<p><span>In </span><a href="http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus138_Smyth-2.pdf">a major new study</a><span> published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, researcher </span><a href="https://twitter.com/PhillipSmyth">Philip Smyth</a><span> makes a convincing case that there's a third jihadist vision contesting the Syrian battlefield. </span></p>
<p><span>And it's arguably been the most successful of the bunch.</span></p>
<p>As Smyth explains, Iran has used the Syrian civil war to expand its influence over the Shi'ite communities in the broader Middle East and advance the clerical regime's strategic and ideological goals. Iran's support for the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad is well-documented.</p>
<p>But Smyth's study goes in-depth on how Iran framed the conflict as a theological struggle from almost the very beginning, an effort aided through heavy doses of anti-American rhetoric and sectarian fear-mongering. At the same time, Iran mobilized a vast network of Iraqi and Lebanese militant groups, along with assorted other foreign elements to backstop the Assad regime and deepen Tehran's regional clout.</p>
<p>Smyth's paper dispenses with the misconception that Syria is a quagmire for Iran, or its "Vietnam," as some analysts have claimed. "In a wider political sense, the real victor of the Syrian war and in Iraq has been Iran, a triumph for which the Islamic Republic has its militia forces to thank," Smyth writes. Tehran succeeded in turning Syria's war into a sectarian conflict and has benefitted greatly as a result.</p>
<p>Here's how they did it.<span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></span></p>
<h3>Iran turned the <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Defense">defense</keyword> of Assad into a religious duty for Shi'ites</h3>
<p>Iran and Assad are strategic allies, but Iran carefully framed its support for the regime as a Shi'ite religious obligation almost from the very start of the conflict. <a href="http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus138_Smyth-2.pdf">As Smyth recounts</a>, Tehran used the defense of the Sayyida Zainab shrine, a Shi'ite pilgrimage site in Damascus, as its initial justification for mobilizing its proxies militias. Smyth quotes a range of militia leaders, militant songs, and other data points showing the emphasis on the defense of the Shrine emerging at an early point in the war - as early as mid-2012, which is long before ISIS even existed in its current form.</p>
<p>Shortly after, a second religious justification emerged as Lebanese Hezbollah began incorporating the defense of Shi'ite communities in Syria into its rhetoric. <span>"</span><span>Themes relating to shrine defense, the 'Islamic resistance' factions started by </span><span>Iran, and a distancing of the Syrian fight from realpolitik motivations thereby </span><span>coalesced," Smyth writes. "Thus, the conflict was morphed into a romantic jihad addressing a </span><span>varied existential threat."</span></p>
<p>(It's worth noting at this point that Assad and many of the regime's top-ranking officials are Alawite. While Musa Sadr, a Lebanese Shi'ite cleric and one of the major figures in modern Shi'ite Islam, <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2013/jun/12/syria-inventing-religious-war/">declared the Alawites to be Shi'ites in the 1970s</a>, their religious practices and beliefs actually have little in common and the association of the Alawites with Shi'ism is largely a modern, political phenomena). </p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<h3>And then Iran turned the Syrian opposition and its alleged supporters into existential enemies. </h3>
<p>As Smyth recounts, for Iran and its proxies, the opposition to the Syrian regime consists entirely of "takfiris," or Muslims who believe that those who fail to adhere to a strict interpretation of Sunni Islam must be killed out of religious obligation.</p>
<p>And this generalization meant that the Syrian opposition and its supporters were the enemies of Shi'ites everywhere.</p>
<p>This was even true if they didn't explicitly adhere to Takfiri ideology: <span style="line-height: 1.5em;">"These days, the new takfiris - be they </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Islamic fundamentalists, liberal fundamentalists or leftist fundamentalists - </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">resort to the same method. Do you support the Syrian regime? If the answer </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">is 'yes,' you are sentenced to excommunication if not death," the editor of the pro-Hezbollah Lebanese newspaper Al Akbhar wrote in August of 2012, according to Smyth.</span></p>
<p>The US has been notably indecisive in formulating a response to the chaos in Syria. But that hasn't stopped Tehran from associating the US and its allies with the takfiri menace. "<span>In this narrative," Smyth writes, "the West has often been implicated as an abettor of the </span><span>takfiris."</span></p>
<p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></span></p>
<h3>Meanwhile, Iran was building a network of militia groups that it could mobilize</h3>
<p><span>Revolutionary Iran has used Lebanese Hezbollah as an instrument of its policies in the Levant for over 30 years. But Smyth's paper gets into granular detail about other, less well-known Iranian networks in the region. The Liwa abu Fadl al-Abbas network mobilized Iraqi Shi'ite militias for combat in Syria and often included "<span>advisors from Lebanese </span><span>Hezbollah and Iran's IRGC" in order "to </span><span>influence the groups' military and ideological development."</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Iran has deeply penetrated Iraq's security apparatus and even sent Iraq's regular security services into Syria: "<span>Whatever the reasons, the very strong possibility exists that elements from </span><span>Iraqi government forces were utilized from the start of open engagements by </span><span>Iranian proxies and other Shiite organizations in Syria," Smyth writes. </span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>This was made possible partly by the activities of Iraqi-based and Iran-allied groups like the Badr Organization, one of the most brutal sectarian militias to emerge in Iraq during the US operation of the last decade. As Smyth notes, Mohammad al-Ghabban, a leader with Badr, is currently Iraq's interior minister.</span></span></span></p>
<p><span>Iranian-allied groups range from direct proxies like Hezbollah to smaller, less-accountable, and more local armed actors. Some of these groups have splintered. But they all play into Iran's larger regional strategy: "</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">What appears to be atomization within the ranks is instead more reminiscent of cell replication, with new </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">groups simply expanding the size and influence of a broader IRGC-created </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">network and model."</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></span></p>
<h3>Taken altgoether, Iran is clearly winning</h3>
<p>The most alarming thing about Iran's management and framing of the Syria conflict is that it's actually worked. As Smyth writes, the "<span>battlefield successes" of ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra "have </span><span>effectively caused the Iranian and Assad messaging strategy to appear more </span><span>like a self-fulfilling prophecy than an advanced operation to alter narratives </span><span>about the rebels." <br /></span></p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="@Arabthomness" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/54d3e6be6bb3f7ef62822900-960/b88ncivicaeefxy.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span><a href="https://twitter.com/arabthomness">@Arabthomness</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div>And the secular rebels who Iran and its allies smeared as "takfiris" are barely holding onto what little territory they still control. The war is being fought along Iran's preferred sectarian fault-line, with Sunni extremists fighting a network of Shi'ite religious warriors largely organized from Tehran.</p>
<p>The US has even <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/expert-the-us-strategy-in-syria-is-a-complete-mess-2015-1">"de-conflicted" with the Syrian and Iranian air forces</a> in Iraq and Syria. That isn't tantamount to an endorsement of the Iranian narrative of the war, but it is a sign of how US policy has conformed to the conditions that Iran and Assad have imposed on the conflict.</p>
<p>Smyth's paper is an important look at how and why Iran was able to pull it off.</p>
<p>Tehran was able to inflame and then channel Shi'ite sectarian fighters from throughout the Middle East. But as Smyth clarifies, Iran's end-goals are earthly and political in nature: "W<span style="line-height: 1.5em;">hat may have appeared to be a disjointed or even organic flow  </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">of Shiite fighters into Syria, ostensibly to defend the country's Shiite holy </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">sites i</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">s actually a highly organized geostrategic and ideological effort by </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Iran to protect its ally in Damascus and project power within Syria, Iraq, and </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">across the Middle East."</span></p>
<h3><a href="http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus138_Smyth-2.pdf">Read the whole thing here.</a></h3>

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