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The Reserve Bank of India's (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to change its stance after taking a guard against inflation by delivering a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the repo rate on April 6, said economists. "There will be a 25 bps increase (in repo rate) and change in stance -- to neutral. The decision won't be unanimous as last time. There will be a pause after the hike," <keyword id="170005" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="Orion">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda told IANS. The MPC is likely to change policy stance to 'neutral', with a non-committal forward guidance, said <keyword id="4921330" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="madhavi-arora" source="Orion">Madhavi Arora</keyword>, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services. <keyword id="176" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="arora" source="Orion">Arora</keyword> said, the neutral stance will give the MPC flexibility to be non-committal on forward guidance, yet subtly give direction on a 'pause'. "In our view, a 'hawkish pause' is less purposeful in sending clearer forward signaling, while a 'hawkish hike' makes even less sense from the policy perspective, amid limited macro levers and expected growth slowdown ahead," Arora said. "We reckon a part of the policy compulsion was emanating from the sharp &amp; consistent (upward) repricing of global rates and the consequent fear of INR (Indian Rupee) instability through capital account and the absent high risk-premia offered by India. Both fears are likely to diminish now, implying that the RBI can choose to pause ahead and keep policy flexibility amid a still-fluid global situation," Arora added. According to Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC, unseasonal rain, early forecasts of El-Nino, rising prices of milk and sugarcane and others are negative for the inflation outlook. On the other hand, the banking crisis in the US and Europe and the slowing growth outlook might also be considered by some members. Another 25 bps rate hike with a stance change to neutral looks like the most likely outcome, Pathak said. Continuing further he said, the bond market will focus more on the RBI's future outlook. A 25 bps rate hike is broadly in price while retention or change of stance will move the bond market. Retention of the current policy stance as 'withdrawal of accommodation' will be perceived as an indication of further rate hikes and thus will be negative for the bond market. The market will also look for the RBI's position on liquidity conditions. The banking system liquidity deficit is likely to increase during the April-June period. In absence of liquidity support from the RBI, the short-term rate can move higher meaningfully, Pathak said. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-infosys-hcl-tech-amongst-top-picks-of-analysts-heading-into-the-q4-earnings-season/articleshow/99235686.cms">TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech amongst top picks of analysts heading into the Q4 earnings season</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/adani-group-stocks-tumble-amid-reports-of-sebi-probe-group-market-capitalisation-falls-by-22000-crore/articleshow/99214962.cms">Adani group stocks tumble amid reports of SEBI probe: Group market capitalisation falls by ₹22,000 crore</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/india-incs-credit-quality-continues-to-shine-in-fy23-slowdown-concerns-could-impact-it-textile-sectors-says-icra/articleshow/99211589.cms">India Inc’s credit quality continues to shine in FY23: Slowdown concerns could impact IT, textile sectors, says ICRA</a>

After delivering 25 bps hike in repo rate, RBI to change its stance on April 6, say economists

<ul><li><keyword id="4667782" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="sabnavis" source="Orion">Sabnavis</keyword> said it believes that the terminal repo rate for the financial year is expected to be 6.5 per cent.</li><li>An out-of-turn meeting of the <keyword id="6375120" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="Orion">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India was held in early November.</li><li><keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> had already hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May to 5.9 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation.</li></ul> The Reserve Bank of India's three-day monetary policy committee meeting commences today. Financial markets will be keenly watching the committee's stance as consumer inflation is still above the 6 per cent target band. "The RBI will be presenting the monetary policy against the backdrop of GDP growth slowing down as well as inflation being high above 6 per cent. We do believe that the MPC will continue with rate hikes this time though the magnitude will be lower - probably 25-35 bps," said <keyword id="170005" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="Orion">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, Chief Economist at <keyword id="6358007" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="bank-of-baroda" source="Orion">Bank of Baroda</keyword>. More specifically, Sabnavis said it believes that the terminal repo rate for the financial year is expected to be 6.5 per cent, which essentially means there will be one more rate hike in February meeting. "It is unlikely to change the stance and the withdrawal of liquidity will continue. While the RBI will take a hard look at both the GDP and inflation projections, there could be some downward revision for GDP growth. In short, there will not be any surprise for the market just as is the case for global markets too which are now expecting more moderate increases in interest rates by the <keyword id="45672" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fed" source="Orion">Fed</keyword>," Sabnavis added. The central bank had already hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May to 5.9 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation that has stayed above the RBI's upper tolerance limit for over three quarters now. In October, retail inflation was 6.77 per cent. Under the flexible inflation targeting framework introduced in 2016, the RBI is deemed to have failed in managing price rises if the CPI-based inflation is outside the 2-6 per cent range for three quarters in a row. An out-of-turn meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India was held in early November to discuss and draft the report to be sent to the central government for having failed in maintaining the inflation mandate. The meeting was called under Section 45ZN of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act 1934, which pertains to steps to be taken if the central bank fails to meet its inflation-targeting mandate. Further details about the special meeting are not officially in the public domain. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/more-to-be-expected-from-rbis-mpc-meeting-than-just-a-rate-hike-say-experts/articleshow/95991628.cms">More to be expected from RBI's MPC meeting than just a rate hike say experts</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/canada-overwhelmed-with-tridemic-of-covid-19-flu-and-respiratory-syncytial-virus/articleshow/95990833.cms">Canada overwhelmed with 'tridemic' of Covid-19, flu and respiratory syncytial virus</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/jio-haptik-aims-to-turn-profitable-before-listing/articleshow/95975823.cms">With an eye on listing in the future, Jio Haptik trains guns on growth &amp; profitability</a>

Bank of Baroda expects 25-35 basis points rate hike from Dec 5-7 RBI policy meet

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

Mumbai, The <keyword id="50847" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank" source="Orion">Reserve Bank</keyword> on Friday approved Rs 87,416 crore dividend payout to the central government for 2022-23, nearly triple of what it paid in the previous year. The dividend payout was Rs 30,307 crore for accounting year 2021-22. The decision was taken at the 602nd meeting of the Central Board of Directors of Reserve Bank of India held under the chairmanship of Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>. "The board approved the transfer of Rs 87,416 crore as surplus to the central government for accounting year 2022-23, while deciding to keep the Contingency Risk Buffer at 6 per cent," <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> said in a statement. The board also reviewed the global and domestic economic situation and associated challenges, including the impact of current global geopolitical developments. The board also discussed the working of RBI during 2022-23 and approved the annual report and accounts of the central bank for the year. Madan Sabnavis, chief economist of Bank of Baroda said that this surplus transfer will come in very handy and ensure that the government managed it fiscal numbers with relative ease given that there are question marks on the divestment programme. "The Budget had looked at a number of Rs 48,000 crore as dividend from banks and RBI. RBI has overshot this number with the transfer of Rs 87,000 cr. This was enabled by higher earnings on sale of forex during the year, better returns on forex investments in US treasuries (though value of bonds would have fallen which has to be charged to the contingency reserve), revaluation of forex assets and adjustments in reserves as per the Bimal Jalan Committee recommendations. The RBI would have had higher pay-outs due to the higher SDF rates with the system being in surplus all through the year," Sabnavis said. According to him, public sector banks have also reported very good profits and announced dividend, there will be higher flows of dividends from this source too. Add to this the possible higher dividend payments by the oil marketing companies and the situation appears quite comfortable from a market perspective as this will not lead to higher market borrowings. (With inputs from PTI)

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After delivering 25 bps hike in repo rate, RBI to change its stance on April 6, say economists

IANS

Bank of Baroda expects 25-35 basis points rate hike from Dec 5-7 RBI policy meet

ANI

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

PTI

RBI approves Rs 87,416 cr dividend payout to the government for 2022-23

Agencies

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