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Mumbai: India is on track to becoming the <keyword id="20432305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="third-largest-economy" source="keywords">third-largest economy</keyword> by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent this fiscal, <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword> said in a report on Thursday. The report also said that with 8.2 per cent growth rate in FY2024, continued reforms are crucial to improving business transactions and logistics, boosting <keyword id="20423043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-sector-investment" source="keywords">private sector investment</keyword>, and reducing reliance on public capital. It said equity markets are expected to stay dynamic and competitive due to strong growth prospects and better regulation, and foreign inflows into Indian government bonds have surged since the country joined major emerging market indexes, with further growth anticipated. To maximize trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline, said the first edition of 'India Forward: Emerging Perspectives' report. Nearly 90 per cent of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports, it added. Noting that India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels, balancing energy security with its energy transition plans, the report stated that agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability, it added. The <keyword id="23234467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-india-research" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global India Research</keyword> Chapter's inaugural study was launched here on Thursday.

India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nvidia's stock rally has another 12-18 months left to go, according to S&amp;P Global's Andrew Chang.</li><li>The stock has at least another year of "strong runaway" amid big demand for its chips, Chang said.</li></ul>Nvidia stock has a lot more room to climb — and shares of the market's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-earnings-party-investors-cult-investing-memes-2024-9">most popular chip maker</a> are bound to soar for at least another year, according to Andrew Chang, a technology director at S&amp;P Global Ratings.The banking veteran pointed to recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-taiwan-tsmc-jensen-huang-china-disruption-2024-9">comments from Jensen Huang</a>, who sparked a sharp rally in NVDA shares this week after speaking at a Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco. The Nvidia CEO issued more guidance on consumer demand and, in particular, demand for Blackwell, the company's next-gen GPU.His comments bolster predictions of continued upside for Nvidia, Chang said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FnQmDld9gA">Schwab Network</a> on Friday."It just confirms our view that we have strong runway for at least the next 12 months," Chang said.Nvidia's partners are also showing signs of strong chip demand. Oracle, which has an ongoing partnership with Nvidia, bumped up its revenue forecasts after beating earnings for the first quarter. The software firm also doubled its planned capital expenditures for the fiscal year — which are all bullish signs for Nvidia."All of these are great data points that, at least for the next 12 to 18 months, things look great," Chang said of the Jensen Huang-led firm.Still, he acknowledged some concerns investors have been airing. Some have floated worries that Nvidia's growth is unsustainable, given the stock's monster 2,514% gain over the last five years.Some analysts have warned demand for Nvidia's chips may not hold strong in the coming years, as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-artificial-intelligence-chips-gpu-earnings-report-2024-5">the firm's largest customers could eventually turn into competitors</a>. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-working-on-its-own-ai-chip-for-data-centers-wsj-1033340339?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-making-ai-chips-to-compete-with-aws-documents-confirm-2023-6?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*13d1ns4*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjI0ODk5Ni4zNDEuMS4xNzI2MjQ5Mzk1LjMyLjAuMA..">Microsoft</a>, two huge customers of Nvidia's GPUs, are reportedly working on their own AI chips."Ultimately, if Oracle, if Microsoft, if Amazon don't see the ROI that they expect, they're going to cut orders. So hyperscale, demand volatility is something that really concerns us," Chang said. "But, you know, these data center players have been known to order a bunch and then pause for several quarters. That's what we're looking out for."Investors will also need to be on the lookout for tighter regulation of AI. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/doj-subpoena-nvidia-antitrust-investigation-heats-up-report-2024-9">Nvidia was recently targeted</a> by the Department of Justice in a fresh antitrust probe, Bloomberg reported, and it's just a "matter of time" before other countries follow suit and try to regulate the technology, Chang said.Nvidia stock sold off in the weeks following its earnings report at the end of August, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oracle-nvidia-help-revive-stock-markets-ai-trade-this-week-2024-9">but the stock staged a fresh rally this week</a> alongside other tech stalwarts including Oracle and Super Micro Computer. Wall Street remains generally bullish on Nvidia. According to Nasdaq data, analysts have issued an average price target of $153 a share, implying a 29% upside from current levels.

Nvidia stock can climb for the next 12 months, S&P Global analyst says

India's corporate credit landscape is showing positive trends that are expected to persist, according to a recent report by <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword>. The report highlights strengthening credit quality across various sectors, driven by enhanced <keyword id="20994126" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-discipline" source="keywords">financial discipline</keyword>, broad-based <keyword id="19899597" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earnings-growth" source="keywords">earnings growth</keyword>, and robust liquidity profiles. S&amp;P Global's analysis reveals that one in three ratings within India now shows a positive outlook, marking a significant shift after three years of net positive rating actions. The report indicates that corporate India has built greater resilience against downside risks, reflecting a more stable and robust credit environment. However, corporate leverage in India is expected to decline marginally, even as capital expenditure (capex) rises by 30% compared to pre-pandemic levels. This improvement is attributed to more entrenched financial discipline among companies, which have managed to balance rising capex with prudent financial management. The report forecasts a 10% growth in aggregate EBITDA in 2024, driven by strong performance in sectors such as telecommunications, airports, commodities, and chemicals. This broad-based earnings growth underscores the resilience of corporate India and its ability to generate substantial cash flows despite a challenging global environment. Indian companies are benefiting from strong onshore liquidity and the absence of large debt maturities, which support their liquidity profiles. The resilience of these companies to foreign exchange and interest rate volatility further strengthens their liquidity positions. Corporate India's positive credit trends are closely linked to broader economic drivers such as GDP growth. Increased consumer spending is bolstering sectors like airports, automobiles, and telecommunications. Meanwhile, infrastructure investment is significantly boosting the commodities, utilities, and commercial automotive sectors. S&amp;P Global notes that both infrastructure and non-infrastructure sectors are experiencing reductions in leverage, with absolute debt reduction more pronounced in non-infrastructure sectors. However, infrastructure entities are slower in reducing debt due to higher capex, particularly in energy transition initiatives. Operating cash flows across sectors are outpacing capex, supporting further deleveraging. While capex intensity remains higher in infrastructure sectors, the neutral free operating cash flow is seen as a positive trend, indicating that companies are managing their capital expenditures efficiently while maintaining cash flows. The transportation infrastructure sector is benefiting from traffic growth and tariff increases, with rising cargo volumes supporting port revenues and improved operating efficiencies boosting margins. Airports are also experiencing higher traffic levels and tariff increases, contributing to better operating cash flows and overall credit quality. In the utilities sector, rising demand and new capacity are driving earnings growth, though capex remains high, particularly for energy transition projects. The steel sector is expected to see increased operating cash flow due to falling input prices and new capacity additions. Earnings in the oil and gas sector are expected to remain stable, supported by a favorable price outlook and consistent production levels. The telecom sector is also on a path to significant deleveraging, with capex expected to moderate following the 5G auctions in 2023. The auto sector is witnessing sustained operating performance as volumes stabilize after the supply chain disruptions of 2022. S&amp;P Global notes that debt levels in the auto sector are expected to remain low following sharp deleveraging, while normalized growth in auto sales and stable margins support the sector's positive outlook. In the chemicals sector, falling input costs and stabilized product prices are expected to drive earnings recovery following a downturn in 2023. Improved signals show a broader trend of recovery across various industrial sectors in India. S&amp;P Global concludes that with the highest proportion of positive credit outlooks in the region, India's corporate sector is well-positioned for continued <keyword id="22758432" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-quality-improvement" source="keywords">credit quality improvement</keyword>. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/saraswati-saree-depot-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112457330.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/saraswati-saree-depot-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112457330.cms" target="_blank">Saraswati Saree Depot IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-wearables-market-decline-for-the-first-time-as-smartwatch-shipments-fall/articleshow/112397246.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-wearables-market-decline-for-the-first-time-as-smartwatch-shipments-fall/articleshow/112397246.cms" target="_blank">India’s wearables market decline for the first time as smartwatch shipments fall</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/ola-wants-to-re-enter-the-quick-commerce-business-to-take-on-blinkit-and-swiggy-instamart/articleshow/112364583.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/ola-wants-to-re-enter-the-quick-commerce-business-to-take-on-blinkit-and-swiggy-instamart/articleshow/112364583.cms" target="_blank">Ola wants to re-enter the quick commerce business to take on Blinkit and Swiggy Instamart</a>

India's corporate credit quality is getting stronger: S&P Global

The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

<ul class="summary-list"><li>European stocks are pricing in a Trump win, Barclays said.</li><li>Exporters have underperformed the broader European market by 15% since spring.</li></ul>With the US election less than two weeks away, European stocks have already been pricing in a Donald Trump victory, according to Barclays.The firm noted that a basket of European exporters — or those companies most vulnerable to tariffs — has underperformed the benchmark European Stoxx 600 by 15% since early spring.Barclays says this is reflective of investors preemptively bracing for Trump's tariff policy, which has been a cornerstone of his presidential-election platform, under the expectation he will win.<div type="image" title="Barclays chart showing how stocks exposed to tariffs have underperformed the broader index" height="1670" width="2136" msid="114514786" hostid="261" sizebytes="87238"></div>"Tariff concerns have been a drag on EU equities' relative performance year-to-date," Barclays analysts led by Emmanuel Cau wrote on Wednesday. "In the event of a full-blown trade war, we could see up to a high single-digit drag on EPS growth with Germany, Italy, Cap Goods, Autos, Beverages, Tech, Chemicals most at risk."Barclays did note that some European firms have relocated production to the US since 2018, which could somewhat limit the impact of Trump's trade policy on the whole market. But it's still worried about the possible side effects."The second-order impact through lower growth and higher inflation (i.e. stagflation) could be more severe, in particular in the case of retaliation and a trade war," Barclays wrote.The US will also feel the impact. The firm forecasts Trump tariffs will be a 3.2% drag on S&amp;P 500 earnings-per-share next year, with the most negative impact affecting materials, discretionary, industrials, technology, and healthcare. Beyond that, retaliatory measures would generate an additional 1.5% hit to forward EPS.The note suggested a possible rebound for Europe's markets if Kamala Harris wins. Her policy would also boost clean and renewables in the region, which have also underperformed on the chances of a Trump win.

One global market is already pricing in a Trump victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks fell, ending a six-week win streak for S&amp;P 500 and the Dow.</li><li>Rising bond yields and resilient economic data contributed to the market's pause.</li></ul>US stocks traded mostly lower on Friday, capping off a down week for the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Both averages ended a six-week win streak on Friday, while a rally in mega-cap tech stocks helped fuel a seventh week of gains and a fresh record high for the Nasdaq. A big surge in bond yields this week served as a big hurdle for investors following a strong rally since the start of the month.The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged nearly 20 basis points this week as macro data points suggest the economy remains resilient and on solid footing.Meanwhile, investors are paying close attention to third-quarter earnings results, with a number of mega-cap tech companies set to report results next week, including Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon.Commentary surrounding AI monetization trends will be top of mind for investors when they parse through the earnings reports."We expect big tech earnings next week will display a mix of steady operational performance, AI-led revenue acceleration, and resilient advertising that signals ongoing health and innovation," Global X research analyst Ido Caspi told Business Insider."We expect to see further evidence of generative AI moving along its growth curve and continued shift from experimentation to widespread monetization," he added.So far, 36% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported results. Of those companies, 79% are beating profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 58% are beating revenue estimates by a median of 2%, according to data from Fundstrat.Traders next week will sift through several economic data updates, including September personal consumption expenditures, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, as well as the October jobs report. September's data showed a stunning 254,000 jobs were added in the month.A similarly hot number would likely temper rate-cut expectations further as markets see less urgency from the Fed to prop up the economy.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,808.12, down 0.03% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,114.40, down 0.61% (-256.96 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,518.61, up 0.56%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-market-cap-apple-most-valuable-company-nvda-2024-10">Nvidia briefly dethroned Apple</a> as the largest company in the world on Friday.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nuclear-power-stocks-ai-energy-oklo-smr-nuscale-cameco-bwxt-2024-10">Nuclear power stocks are soaring</a> amid an AI energy rush. </li><li><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/versace-parent-stock-plunged-after-affordable-luxury-deal-blocked-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Versace parent Capri's stock plunged</a> after a judge shot down a merger deal between the company and Coach owner Tapestry.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-brics-russia-putin-us-dollar-payments-kazan-declaration-currency-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Vladimir Putin tempered expectations</a> for de-dollarization at a BRICS summit.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-3q-earnings-growth-stock-price-outlook-credits-jpmorgan-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">JPMorgan said</a> some drivers of Tesla's earnings look unsustainable.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil jumped 2.19% to $71.73 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 2.11% to $75.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.30% to $2,757.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.246%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was lower by 1.83% to $66,914.</li></ul>

Stock market today: S&P 500 ends 6-week win streak, while Nasdaq rises on mega-cap rally

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tariffs on China are inflationary, and could slow US GDP growth in the near-term, S&amp;P Global said.</li><li>They say this has the potential to delay Fed rate cuts, as prices take longer to disinflate.</li></ul>US efforts to counterbalance Chinese imports could instead create unsteadiness in the country's fight against inflation, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/rising-trade-protectionism-poses-silent-threat-to-us-inflation-fight-81861425" target="_blank" rel="noopener">S&amp;P Global Intelligence</a> wrote. In fact, Washington's embrace of tariffs on foreign goods could risk delaying long-awaited interest-rate cuts, in the event it forces the Federal Reserve to keep policy higher for longer, the ratings agency said.Tariff policies have gained fresh attention in recent months, especially with the US presidential election drawing closer. In order to protect domestic industry, both candidates have embraced protection, with former president Donald Trump going as far as pledging a 10% universal tariff on all US imports, if elected. As for China, he plans a 60% rate.Though President Biden's policies are less broad-based, his administration hasn't shied away from protectionist tactics, either. Not only has Biden kept most of Trump's previous trade restrictions on China intact, he's recently announced new duties on Beijing's technological exports — from <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-joe-biden-hikes-tariffs-on-chinese-made-evs-2024-5">electric vehicles to solar products</a>. "Yet economists say the new duties, and tariffs more broadly, may carry an unwelcome consequence: higher prices and a heightened probability of higher-for-longer interest rates," S&amp;P wrote. "While the Fed is expected to slightly lower benchmark rates this year from their current decades-long high, higher tariffs are likely to feed through to higher prices, complicating central bankers' decisions." As of right now, Biden's proposed tariffs will target only a small scope of China's industry, going into effect through 2024 to 2026. Of the 14 categories under scrutiny, the top five accounted for just 3% of Chinese imports into the US in 2022, S&amp;P cited.But for domestic manufacturers, tariffs can ease the pressure to lower prices, as Chinese competitors lose their low-cost advantage. In this sense, protectionism can boost economic growth in the long run, but not before fueling market inefficiencies and complicating inflation."Global supply chains have developed to how they are today to take advantage of efficiencies in production. This keeps world and US GDP higher and prices lower than would exist without globalization and trade," S&amp;P's senior US economist Ben Herzon said in the report.What's more, these tariffs have the potential to dent US growth, the agency estimates. Currently, GDP is expected to rise by 2.49% this year, just below last year's 2.54% gain.Other analysts have voiced the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-economic-outlook-recession-inflation-china-tariffs-biden-president-election-2024-3">same concerns</a>, especially if Trump's blanket tariffs take effect. By one estimate, his proposal could cost <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-war-china-tariffs-taxes-us-economy-deficit-impact-2024-5">US consumers $500 billion a year</a>.

Tariffs on China could end up making inflation worse and hurting US economic growth, S&P Global says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks slumped from record highs as traders awaited fresh economic data.</li><li>Markets are bracing for the latest GDP revision, jobless claims, and PCE inflation data in the coming days.</li></ul>US stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, ending a record-setting streak of gains as traders looked ahead to coming economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 300 points and the S&amp;P 500 slipped from record highs, ending the day about 0.2% lower. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a small gain. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield up five basis points to 3.789%. Traders are looking ahead to a slew of economic releases in the latter part of the week, with the second-quarter's latest GDP revision and weekly jobless claims scheduled for Thursday morning. Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Friday.The data points should give markets more insight into the underlying strength of the US economy, which could impact the path of rate cuts into year-end and in 2025. "While we are looking for the economy to slow to a more moderate pace into year-end, our base case does not include a recession," Scott Wren, the senior global strategist at Wells Fargo said in a note on Wednesday. "Even with that view, we are aware of potential risks in coming months as the economy continues to slow (interest rate cuts won't immediately reverse the slowdown), the US elects a new president, and tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine appear to be increasing."Traders are still expecting steep rate cuts over the course of the next year. Markets have priced in a 59% chance the Fed will issue another jumbo 50 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool, implying a rapid pace of policy easing.On the earnings front, investors will get an update on the strength of US chipmakers when Micron Technologies reports earnings after the closing bell. The event will be an important bellwether for the AI trade as investors worry about things like return on massive spending and continued demand for AI tools. Micron, which has consistently beaten earnings and revenue expectations over the past year, rose more than 1% on Wednesday ahead of its results.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,722.25, down 0.19% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,914.75, down 0.70% (-293.47 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,082.21, up 0.04% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-stimulus-bernard-arnault-6-billion-richer-lvmh-stock-2024-9">Benard Arnault added $6 billion to his net worth</a> in a day this week after China's stimulus sparked a rally in luxury stocks.</li><li>Stocks are mirroring the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-everything-rally-returnsbull-surge-heats-up-nasdaq-gains-2024-9">early days of one of history's biggest bull markets</a>, according to one hedge fund manager.</li><li>There are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-strong-rally-through-december-despite-election-risk-2024-9">3 things that point to a strong stock rally through December</a>, Fundstrat says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures dropped.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price"> West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 2.57% to $69.72 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 2.25% to $73.48. </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged 0.3% higher to $2,684 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up five basis points to 3.789%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slumped 0.93% to $63,239.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 drop as rally loses steam ahead of fresh economic data

<keyword id="19895579" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold" source="keywords">Gold</keyword> consistently reduces portfolio <keyword id="19908008" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="volatility" source="keywords">volatility</keyword> while improving returns, even with increased <keyword id="20108512" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="allocation" source="keywords">allocation</keyword>. By simulating portfolio performance with varying allocations of gold (2.5% to 10%), it's evident that the yellow metal bolsters return without adding significant risk, according to the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. On the other hand, <keyword id="19899404" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bitcoin" source="keywords">Bitcoin</keyword> shows diminishing returns as its allocation increases. A 2.5% allocation of bitcoin can enhance risk-adjusted returns, but beyond that, the portfolio's volatility rises, leading to larger drawdowns and lower overall performance. The data underscores that while bitcoin may offer short-term upside, it introduces risk that erodes its effectiveness as a stable <keyword id="22820244" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="store-of-value" source="keywords">store of value</keyword>. Global equities experienced a sharp downturn, with the <keyword id="19919944" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-500" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P 500" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P 500">S&amp;P 500</keyword> and <keyword id="19951906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NASDAQ" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="NASDAQ" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="NASDAQ">NASDAQ</keyword> dropping over 4% and 6%, respectively, at the peak of the selloff. Amid this volatility, the debate over whether bitcoin can be considered "digital gold" resurfaced, as investors re-examined its place as an inflation hedge and a store of value. While bitcoin enthusiasts often label the cryptocurrency as "digital gold," a closer examination of the data, particularly during turbulent market periods, challenges this claim. Gold, a time-tested asset known for its stability, has long been a <keyword id="20466459" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="safe-haven" source="keywords">safe haven</keyword> during <keyword id="22820245" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-downturns" source="keywords">market downturns</keyword>. Bitcoin, on the other hand, displays characteristics more akin to high-risk technology stocks, making it an unsuitable substitute for gold in times of market stress. The primary distinction between gold and bitcoin lies in volatility. On a five-year rolling basis, gold has proven to be far less volatile than bitcoin, a trend that underscores its role as a safe haven asset. Gold's stable value is supported by central bank holdings, long-term investment demand, and its status as a global store of wealth. Bitcoin, conversely, is at the extreme end of the volatility spectrum, with its price fluctuations resembling those of tech stocks--closely tied to blockchain adoption and innovation trends. The most recent market correction in early August 2024 further emphasized these differences. While bitcoin experienced sharp losses, gold remained relatively stable, reinforcing its value as a risk mitigator during crises. The comparison of year-to-date returns reveals the stark contrast: bitcoin's wild swings have made it less reliable for investors seeking protection in a turbulent market. Bitcoin and gold also show stark differences in their correlation with broader markets. Gold has historically exhibited a negative correlation during down markets, and a positive correlation during up markets, making it an ideal asset for a diversified portfolio. Bitcoin, on the other hand, behaves more like risk assets, amplifying market stress rather than mitigating it. This was especially evident during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when gold outperformed while bitcoin faltered, aligning with other high-risk equities. Gold's global acceptance as a store of value--unrestricted by geographic or regulatory boundaries--provides further stability. Bitcoin, while growing in prominence, has not demonstrated the same universal acceptance or reliability, particularly during significant market downturns. The critical takeaway from the events of early August 2024 is that bitcoin has yet to demonstrate the same safe haven characteristics as gold. In times of significant market drawdowns, bitcoin has tracked risk assets like tech stocks, offering no meaningful protection for investors seeking stability. This reinforces the notion that bitcoin's most common use case is as an indicator of blockchain adoption rather than a dependable hedge against inflation or market turmoil.

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