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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>'s navy has taken high-profile losses against a outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian adversary.</li><li>The losses themselves are not catastrophic for Russia's navy but they are blows to Russian prestige.</li></ul><p>Since Russia launched its attack on <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> in late February, the <keyword id="12320048" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russian-navy" source="Orion">Russian navy</keyword> has <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/russian-navys-5-significant-losses-in-the-ukraine-war-so-far/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suffered</a> high-profile losses against a heavily outnumbered and outgunned adversary.</p><p>The Russians <a href="https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">have lost</a> at least five <a href="https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1521026579555569670?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521026579555569670%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.navalnews.com%2Fnaval-news%2F2022%2F05%2Fwatch-ukrainian-tb2-striking-two-russian-raptor-assault-boats%2F" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Raptor-class</a> patrol boats, one <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44904/russian-landing-ship-destroyed-in-massive-explosion-in-captured-ukrainian-port-city" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tapir-class</a> landing ship, one <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/russian-serna-class-lcu-becomes-the-new-victim-of-tb2-drone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Serna-class</a> landing craft, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-ships-head-south-as-flagship-moskva-battles-extensive-fire-2022-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">most notably the Moskva</a>, a Slava-class guided-missile cruiser that was also the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet.</p><p>The losses themselves are not catastrophic for the Russian navy and are unlikely to alter the course of the war or the balance of power in the Black Sea, but they are blows to Russian prestige and come a little over a century after another <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-and-west-moskva%E2%80%99s-sinking-truly-historic-201881" target="_blank" rel="noopener">historic debacle</a> for Russia: the <keyword id="14100772" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="battle-of-tsushima" source="Orion">Battle of Tsushima</keyword>, the last time a Russian navy flagship <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reviews/out?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Frussias-sunken-warship-moskva-recalls-great-world-war-ii-naval-battles-11650021090" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was sunk</a> in combat.</p><p>Fought in the waters between Korea and southern <keyword id="6355311" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="japan" source="Orion">Japan</keyword> by ships of the Japanese and Russian empires on May 27 and 28 in 1905, the battle cemented Japan's rise as an equal to Western powers and had a lasting impact on both Japan and Russia.</p><h2>Competing empires</h2><div type="image" title="Japan navy ships Russo-Japanese war" height="1029" width="2000" msid="91972518" hostid="261"></div><p>Tensions between the Japanese and Russian empires had been building since Japan's overwhelming victory in the Sino-Japanese War in 1895.</p><p>Japan, equipped with an organized, modern army, was pursuing ambitions in Korea and China that brought it dangerously close to Russian interests, especially in Manchuria and Korea.</p><p>Of particular importance to the Russians was Port Arthur, now Dalian, a Chinese port that was leased to Russia and was its only warm-water Pacific port. Port Arthur became the headquarters of Russia's Pacific Fleet and there were plans to connect it to Russia via the Trans-Siberian Railway.</p><p>Negotiations between Japan and Russia over the future of the region went nowhere, and so, on February 8, 1904, the Imperial Japanese Navy <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-pearl-harbor-the-battle-port-arthur-17260" target="_top">attacked</a> the main part of the Russian Pacific Fleet at Port Arthur, formally declaring war hours later.</p><div type="image" title="Russia navy ships Port Arthur Russo-Japanese war" height="1500" width="2000" msid="91972519" hostid="261"></div><p>Japan gained a naval advantage relatively quickly. It fought off an <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-the-Yellow-Sea-1904" target="_top">attempt</a> by the main part of the Russian Pacific Fleet to break the blockade of Port Arthur and largely defeated Russia's Vladivostok-based squadrons at Chemulpo Bay and Ulsan — victories that allowed Japan to effectively dominate the Pacific.</p><p>Unwilling to concede defeat, and with Japanese ground forces beginning a <a href="https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/2018/12/13/baiting-the-russian-bear-the-siege-of-port-arthur/" target="_top">siege of Port Arthur itself</a>, Russia's Tsar Nicholas II ordered the creation of the 2nd Pacific Squadron, which was to be made up of ships from the Baltic Fleet.</p><p>Commanded by Vice Adm. Zinovy Rozhestvensky, the 2nd Pacific Squadron was composed of some 40 ships, including 11 <a href="https://www.warhistoryonline.com/instant-articles/dreadnought.html" target="_top">pre-dreadnought battleships</a>, nine cruisers, and nine destroyers.</p><p>Sailing from the Baltic in October 1904, they were supposed to relieve the Pacific Fleet at Port Arthur, destroy any Japanese ships they encountered, and cut the supply lines between Japan and mainland Asia.</p><h2>Russia's doomed fleet</h2><div type="image" title="Russia navy battleship Knyaz Suvorov" height="1400" width="1866" msid="91972520" hostid="261"></div><p>Russia's navy had been modernized in during the latter half of the 1800s, but while the 2nd Pacific Squadron appeared strong on paper, it was not a first-rate naval force. Some of the warships were new and untested, but many were old and bordered on obsolete. Others were little more than auxiliary ships with guns mounted on them.</p><p>Russian Navy leadership was also of low quality. Many of its officers came from wealthy and connected families who simply bought their commissions. The rank-and-file sailors were not much more professional, as many of them were inexperienced conscripts.</p><p>These issues were on full display during the seven-month, 18,000-mile journey to the Pacific.</p><p>While in the North Sea near England, the fleet opened fire on British fishing trawlers, somehow thinking they were Japanese torpedo boats. Two fishermen were killed, one was injured, and one trawler was sunk with four more damaged. In the chaos, some of the Russian ships even fired on each other, causing casualties and damage.</p><div type="image" title="Russia navy battleship Borodino" height="1500" width="2000" msid="91972521" hostid="261"></div><p>Diplomatic maneuvering managed to prevent the British from joining the war on the side of Japan, but the Russian fleet's troubles were only beginning.</p><p>Most of the fleet sailed around Africa rather than through the Suez Canal. The longer journey took a toll on the crews, who had never experienced such a different climate or such a long time at sea. The ships themselves were also under considerable strain. During gunnery practice with a mock target towed by a cruiser, the only thing the fleet hit was the cruiser.</p><p>With no allies, the Russians couldn't dock in friendly ports, and so they had to take on more coal while at sea. Conditions on the ships deteriorated, and a number of sailors died of disease and respiratory issues.</p><p>By the time the fleet was in Madagascar in January, Port Arthur had fallen. Their mission was then changed: They were to meet the remnants of Russia's Pacific Fleet in Vladivostok before engaging the Japanese in a decisive battle.</p><h2>Slaughter at Tsushima</h2><div type="image" title="Japanese navy ships Tsushima" height="782" width="1200" msid="91972522" hostid="261"></div><p>When the Russian ships finally reached the Tsushima Strait on the night of May 26, 1905, Rozhestvensky attempted to slip through unnoticed. Unfortunately for him, one of his ships had been spotted by a patrolling Japanese vessel.</p><p>Even more unfortunate, the Russian ship mistakenly believed the Japanese vessel was a lost Russian ship and signaled that more Russian ships were nearby.</p><p>With the location of his enemy confirmed, Japanese Adm. Tōgō Heihachirō's Combined Fleet, which included four modern battleships, over 20 cruisers, 21 destroyers, and 43 torpedo boats, set out to meet them.</p><p>On the morning of May 27, the fleets made contact. Before the firing began, Tōgō hoisted a signal flag that conveyed a predetermined message to his fleet: "the Empire's fate depends on the result of this battle, let every man do his utmost duty."</p><div type="image" title="Russia navy cruiser Oleg" height="1342" width="1897" msid="91972523" hostid="261"></div><p>The ensuing battle was a slaughter. In addition to better training, discipline, and experience, the Japanese were equipped with modern armor-piercing rounds that tore the Russian ships apart.</p><p>By the end of the day, four Russian battleships were sunk. Imperator Aleksandr III sank with its entire crew of over 700, while Borodino sank with all but one of its more than 800 crew members.</p><p>The flagship, Knyaz Suvorov, sank with all but 20 officers, while about half of Oslyabya's crew went down with the ship. A number of cruisers and destroyers were sunk as well.</p><p>As night fell, the survivors attempted to make it to Vladivostok under cover of darkness. Tōgō's destroyers hunted them down, picking off two more battleships and several other warships. By the following afternoon, most of the survivors surrendered.</p><h2>Lost prestige</h2><div type="image" title="Heihashima Togo Japan Tokyo" height="1341" width="2000" msid="91972524" hostid="261"></div><p>Russian losses were immense, 21 ships sunk or scuttled and seven captured. Only three ships reached Vladivostok, though six others made it to neutral ports in China, the Philippines, and Madagascar.</p><p>Over 4,000 Russian sailors were killed and almost 6,000 were captured. The Japanese lost only three torpedo boats with just 117 killed and about 500 wounded — including a young Isoroku Yamamoto, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/operation-vengeance-us-kills-pearl-harbor-planner-isoroku-yamamoto-2018-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mastermind of the attack on Pearl Harbor</a>, who lost two fingers in the battle.</p><p>The Russian navy's prestige never recovered from Tsushima. Unable to be rebuilt to the same grand scale, it saw little major action in World War I. The Soviet Navy also only saw limited action in World War II and never truly proved itself during the Cold War, though Soviet submarines were a constant concern for NATO navies.</p><p>Today, the Russian navy <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-navy-betting-big-on-new-smaller-warships-with-missiles-2021-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">boasts a smaller, more modern fleet</a> that is focused on green-water operations rather than high-seas campaigns, but its surprising losses against Ukraine show it has yet to regain the dominance lost a century ago.</p>

The Russian navy's surprising losses against Ukraine are reminders of another humiliating defeat 117 years ago

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In May 1905, Russia's navy suffered a resounding defeat by the Japanese at the Battle of Tsushima.</li><li>It sealed Japan's victory in the Russo-Japanese War and eliminated much of Russia's influence in Asia.</li></ul><p>A devastating naval defeat 118 years ago blunted a major European power's ambitions in Asia and marked the emergence of a newly dominant Asian military.</p><p>The lopsided clash between <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surprising-russian-navy-losses-against-ukraine-century-after-tsushima-2022-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Imperial Japan and Imperial Russia at the Battle of Tsushima</a> in March 1905 cemented Japan's victory in the Russo-Japanese War, virtually eliminated Russia's influence from the Asia-Pacific for decades, and affirmed Japan as military power equal to major Western nations.</p><p>Even now, the battle can be seen as a lesson about complacency in the face of new threats, according to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, the service's top civilian official.</p><p>Russia and Japan in 1905 are not the US and China today, and Russia's failure at Tsushima "has little to do" with the situation the US faces now, Kendall said a speech at the Air and Space Forces Association conference in September, but the battle is still a warning about what can happen when established powers aren't prepared to face ascendant rivals.</p><h2>Great-power competition</h2><div type="image" title="Russo-Japanese war Port Arthur China" height="1503" width="2000" msid="104728179" hostid="261"></div><p>The events leading up to the Battle of Tsushima were quintessential examples of great-power competition in the era of imperialism.</p><p>Imperial Japan, newly industrialized and armed with a strong military based on those of Europe and the US, began pursuing its ambitions on the Asian mainland, chiefly in China and Korea, winning a major victory over China in 1895.</p><p>This put it in direct competition with Imperial Russia. Following China's defeat, Russia sought to expand its influence in China and Korea. Russia gained a lease on Port Arthur — now part of Dalian in China — in 1898, effectively giving it control of the Liaodong Peninsula, which juts into the Yellow Sea.</p><p>The Russians hoped to connect Port Arthur, at the time their only warm-water port on the Pacific, with the Trans-Siberian Railway and were expanding their influence within the court of Korea's ruling dynasty.</p><div type="image" title="Japanese navy ships Tsushima" height="782" width="1200" msid="104728181" hostid="261"></div><p>Unable to negotiate mutually beneficial terms with Russia on the future of the region, Tokyo sent the Imperial Japanese Navy <a href="https://www.historytoday.com/archive/japan%E2%80%99s-attack-port-arthur" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to attack</a> the main part of Russia's Pacific Fleet at Port Arthur on February 8, 1904 in one of history's first major surprise attacks. Japan formally declared war a few hours later.</p><p>Japan quickly gained the naval advantage, fighting off the Russian Pacific Fleet's <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-the-Yellow-Sea-1904" target="_blank" rel="noopener">attempt</a> to break its blockade of Port Arthur and defeating Russian navy reinforcements at Chemulpo Bay and Ulsan.</p><p>The Japanese soon brought Port Arthur under siege from land, and Russia, with no alternatives, allocated almost 40 ships from its Baltic Fleet to the newly created 2nd Pacific Squadron, which it then sent to Asia to save Port Arthur.</p><h2>'Completely destroyed'</h2><div type="image" title="Russian btattleship Oriol in Japan Battle of Tsushima" height="879" width="2159" msid="104728183" hostid="261"></div><p>After a grueling and accident-prone seven-month, 18,000-mile journey, the squadron reached the Tsushima Strait between Korea and Japan on May 27, 1905, where <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surprising-russian-navy-losses-against-ukraine-century-after-tsushima-2022-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Japanese promptly obliterated it</a>.</p><p>Twenty-one Russian ships were sunk or scuttled and seven more were captured. Only three ships reached Vladivostok, though six others made it to neutral ports in China, the Philippines, and Madagascar.</p><p>Over 5,000 Russians sailors were killed and more than 6,000 were captured. Japan lost only three torpedo boats, as well as 117 sailors killed and about 500 wounded.</p><div type="image" title="Russia navy cruiser Oleg" height="1202" width="1603" msid="104728184" hostid="261"></div><p>"The Battle of Tsushima Straits did not go well for Russia," Kendall, a self-proclaimed history buff, said at the conference. "The entire Russian fleet was completely destroyed."</p><p>The battle was the final nail in the coffin for Russia's war effort. Japan had <a href="https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/baiting-the-russian-bear-the-siege-of-port-arthur/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">captured Port Arthur</a> before the 2nd Pacific Squadron arrived in May, and another Russian <a href="https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/bloodbath-at-mukden-imperial-russia-and-japan-collide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defeat at Mukden</a> two months earlier destroyed any hope of a victory via a land campaign.</p><p>Having lost virtually all its naval power in the Pacific, Russia was no longer in a position to strike at Japan effectively or even realistically. Japan indicated a willingness to begin negotiations mediated by President Theodore Roosevelt, and the Russians, with no other options, had to sue for peace.</p><h2>'A long shadow'</h2><div type="image" title="China aircraft carrier Shandong jet takeoff" height="620" width="2000" msid="104728185" hostid="261"></div><p>The US and China today are not the Russia and Japan of 118 years ago, and the US military faces circumstances distinct from those that confronted Russia at the time, but the Battle of Tsushima had far-reaching consequences that are still relevant now, Kendall argued in his speech.</p><p>"A major power, Russia, lost its influence in Asia. A major power, again Russia, saw its military credibility evaporate," Kendall said.</p><p>The outcome of the battle "amplified" the arms race between Britain and Germany and fed a perception in Imperial Germany that Russia was weak and could be dealt with in the event of a conflict, leading the Germans to feel "comfortable" entering a two-front war nine years later, Kendall said.</p><div type="image" title="US China risky intercept" height="916" width="1613" msid="104728188" hostid="261"></div><p>Russia's navy, which never truly recovered, experienced several mutinies in the following years, which "helped pave the way for the Russian Revolution in 1917 and the creation of the Soviet Union," Kendall said. In Asia, a rising Japan "gained the confidence to defy European powers and the US," leading it to annex Korea in 1910, invade Manchuria in 1931 and China in 1937, and, ultimately, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-us-navy-aircraft-carriers-avoided-destruction-at-pearl-harbor-2020-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to attack Pearl Harbor in 1941</a>.</p><p>"The point of all this is that operational and tactical defeats, especially when they involve rising and existing great powers, could have major strategic consequences," Kendall added.</p><p>Kendall has made countering China <a href="https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2781521/kendall-presents-unsparing-blueprint-for-confronting-china-other-threats/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a focal point</a> of his tenure. He and other US officials often stress that a war with China is not inevitable but that the US military needs to improve its readiness and capabilities in order to deter such a conflict.</p><p>"History, including some recent history, tells us that deterrence can and sometimes does fail. If our power-projection capability and capacity are not adequate to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan or elsewhere, war could occur," Kendall said. "If it does and we cannot prevail, the results could cast a long shadow."</p>

An embarrassing Russian defeat a century ago is a warning about the risks of losing a war to China now, top US military official says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Alcohol could have influenced the defeat of Russia during the 1853 Crimean War.</li><li>As Russia fights in Ukraine, alcohol abuse is again becoming a concern. </li></ul><p>Almost exactly 170 years ago, in a battle against the Ottoman Empire, Russia suffered a catastrophic defeat in the Crimean War — in part due to the drinking habits taken up by the military during the fighting. </p><p>Mark Lawrence Schrad, director of Russian Area Studies at Villanova University and author of <a href="https://affiliate.insider.com?amazonTrackingID=biauto-57639-20&amp;h=be31789b7a1c4715122aea0bda3b471291831ebad2463e66b9d002cb369046f4&amp;postID=6435db5f507e5b075b67787a&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FVodka-Politics-Alcohol-Autocracy-History%2Fdp%2F0190468815%2Fref%3Dtmm_pap_title_0%3F_encoding%3DUTF8%26qid%3D%26sr%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vodka Politics: Alcohol, Autocracy, and the Secret History of the Russian State</a><em>, </em>wrote in 2014 that drunkenness plagued the Russian army under Tsar Nicholas I, from the lowly rank and file soldiers to the high command military leaders, as they stumbled their way through battles, only to lose 100,000 soldiers and the war itself. </p><p>Schrad, in the book, <a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/vodka-crimean-war-russia-disaster-104771/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">details instances of befuddled Russian armies left to fight</a> without commanders, hospitals drenched in the scent of vodka, and soldiers complaining after being deprived of their vodka rations.</p><p>The Crimean War would become another example of the county's war drinking problem cataloged in the annals of Russian history. Another <a href="https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2022/09/27/putins-military-draft-is-unpopular-so-what-00059145" target="_blank" rel="noopener">example Schrad writes about</a> includes the Russo-Japanese War, which Japan won despite being heavily outnumbered. Schrad cites a St. Petersburg newspaper writing, "the Japanese found several thousand Russian soldiers so dead drunk that they were able to bayonet them like so many pigs."</p><p>Although not the sole reason that these wars were lost, Schrad argues that vodka played a significant part in Russia's failures. </p><p>During World War I, the Tsar instituted Prohibition that lasted until Joseph Stalin took power, but Schrad writes of riots over conscription and looting of liquor stores, warehouses, and distilleries.</p><p>Drinking and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemicallef/2020/03/21/pusser-and-the-story-of-navy-rum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">military history</a> have <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/SHAD25010066#:~:text=Though%20supposedly%20regulated%20by%20military,of%20battles%2C%20maneuvers%20and%20campaigns." target="_blank" rel="noopener">always been entwined</a> — the practice fueled by myths that drinking would grant soldiers courage — but Schrad argues that Russia has a particularly unique history with drinking that follows many through lines, particularly the country's history dominating the vodka trade, and the Russian conscription system, a relic of the 17th-century ruler Peter the Great.</p><p>Why does it matter now? A recent UK defense ministry <a href="https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1642407117049954307" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">intelligence update</a> reported that many Russian troops are dying in Ukraine due to non-combat issues such as alcohol consumption, among other things. The death toll among Russian troops is now two times that of their opponents, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russians-ukrainians-killed-putins-war-leaked-documents-2023-4">estimates from leaked US intelligence documents reveal</a>.</p><p>Schrad told Insider that he doesn't want to make "direct analogies with stuff that happened 150 years ago," but the parallels are there.</p><p>"The alcohol angles are interesting. I don't think it's nearly as important nowadays, as it was during the Russo-Japanese War or World War One, but it's significant, right?" Schrad told Insider. "It's not something that you can just kind of brush aside either, right? You've got a demoralized Russian army and they're going up against a very enthusiastic Ukrainian fighting force that's there to defend their homeland defend their turf."</p><p>In an interview with Insider, Schrad expanded on the history of Russian drinking during wartime.</p><p><em>This interview was edited for length and clarity.</em></p><p><strong>I read one of your articles from last year and you had basically — I don't know if I want to say called it — but you used historical precedent to predict that alcohol would play a role in the war. I want to hear from you why you felt that this was going to be an issue coming into the Ukrainian war.</strong></p><p>A lot of it is the consequence of my research topic, which has been alcohol and Russian history. It's been my bread and butter for ages. And a lot of it kind of revolved around my book "Vodka Politics." The thesis of the book was "Why do Russians drink so much?" Yes, there are cultural stereotypes. But the explanation I came up with was that it wasn't so much some sort of cultural or genetic trait, as much as it was the consequence of generations of autocratic decision-making that put the interest of the Russian state ahead of the health and well-being of the Russian people. </p><p>Historically, the thing that was most profitable to the Russian state was vodka. The monopolization of alcohol and tavern trade in Russia, going back to the czars, constituted 1/3 of all the income of the Russian state under the czars, and then even into the Soviet era, one-quarter of all revenue came from selling vodka to their own people. I think a lot of where it comes from. The book traced this thread of alcohol through all sorts of different things, including war-fighting, and you find that every time that Russia goes to war, there is this alcohol calamity. The Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese War, World War I, in particular, were all drunken fiascos. </p><p>And so as that gets into sort of the current scenario with Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainians inherited a lot of that legacy as well — I suppose, a kind of societal alcoholism — but has also moved in a lot of ways towards more European systems, not only when it comes to alcohol use, but also regulation.</p><p>When the war started, on the Ukrainian side, they instituted kind of a blanket prohibition during the first months of the war. The idea was that alcohol wasn't necessary to maintain discipline and morale in a time of crisis.</p><p>Obviously, on the Russian side, you had just the opposite. You had people stumbling into the war, completely drunk. You have a lot of these reports coming out of Ukraine from survivors of Russians committing mass atrocities, oftentimes while drunk, which is another consistent theme of history. </p><p>When Russia started later on in 2022, with mass conscription, it was the same thing as what we saw in 1904-1905 or 1914 with World War I — that people would show up half drunk and get into fights with the draft officers and continued the drinking straight through till they get on the battlefield. </p><p><strong>One thing that in history we've seen is there have been a lot of cultures that drink during wartime. What circumstances make Russia's current drinking problem unique?</strong></p><p>What's fascinating is that Russia becomes the first Prohibition country after World War I because it learned its lesson after the Russo-Japanese war, and that kind of became the cult of military sobriety. All countries that got involved in World War I were restricting availability to alcohol because all these militaries around the world learned their lesson, like Russia did, that whether you have a good fighting force or a drunken fighting force can really make the difference between victory and defeat. So I would say since World War I there has been more of an international consensus towards limiting alcohol in the ranks, especially when it comes to warfighting. </p><p>I think when it comes to especially more modern forces, Russia is still very much stuck in the past of having that pervasiveness of alcohol whereas a more modern army might not have that. Russia's armies in a lot of ways are kind of a relic of the past. It's still pretty much a conscript army. It's not a modern volunteer army. And so you've got a lot of those holdovers from the past, and I think that that might be part of it as well. But the fact is that you're getting people in wartime positions, who really didn't sign up for this, as opposed to American soldiers or British soldiers who choose this lifestyle right for one reason or another.</p><p>You know, the last time that we had a draft in the United States, during Vietnam, there was a lot of drug abuse and alcoholism that came with that as well. That could be part of the dynamic, too.</p><p><strong>It seems like Russia is aware of this. Why does Russia continue to hold on to this conscription system despite evidence that it could lead to drinking issues among servicemen?</strong></p><p>I think it's been hard to reform for one. But then, more importantly, Russia has also, in more recent years, been undergoing something of a demographic crisis. When the Soviet Union falls apart in the early 1990s, there was just, economic decay, disorder, and depression. In Russia, they had sort of a baby bust from the '90s through the mid-2000s. That's the generation now that would be coming up for military service, and there are just not enough people there.</p><p>When it comes to this demographic crisis that's plagued Russia for a long time the military has been sort of the most astute at this. They've been sort of raising alarm bells for the last 20 years, in terms of wanting to reform and make a more modern army, but also recognizing that they needed to sort of maintain conscription just because if they were to give it up, they wouldn't have enough warm bodies to man all the turrets and field all the positions that they need.</p><p><em><strong>Correction: April 12, 2023 —</strong> This story has been corrected to show the correct number of years since the Crimean War. It has been 17o years, not 150 years.</em></p>

Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows.

<p><strong><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKrVegVI0Us">Marvel/Disney</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div></strong></p><ul><li><strong>Jeremy Renner said it's a "nice feeling" that so many fans were worried about Hawkeye in "Avengers: Infinity War," but he thinks it was also "intense."</strong></li><li><strong>He said the Russo Brothers, the directors of the movie, got "way too many death threats."</strong></li><li><strong>Fortunately, Hawkeye's whereabouts are addressed in the movie.</strong></li><li><strong>He's not dead, and will most likely have a bigger role to play in the sequel. </strong></li></ul><p> </p><p>By now, fans know that Hawkeye was not in "Avengers: Infinity War," after months of speculation about his whereabouts. And actor Jeremy Renner said that while he was flattered by the fan outcry, he thought it went a tad overboard.</p><p>In an interview with <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2018/06/11/jeremy-renner-bounces-back-tag-injuries-ready-awesome-next-avengers/688948002/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">USA Today</a>, Renner said it was a "nice feeling" that so many fans were worried about Hawkeye, but it was also a little too "intense."</p><p><span>"It's a nice feeling, I suppose," Renner said. "I think the Russo brothers [directors Joe and Anthony Russo] got way too many death threats. I'm like, 'Wow, dude, that's intense. I'm sorry!'"</span></p><p><span>This is the first time we've heard of any "death threats" against the Russos, so maybe Renner is exaggerating. But fortunately, Hawkeye's status is addressed in the movie. He's not dead, he's just on "house arrest" after the events of "Captain America: Civil War," in which Hawkeye defied a superhero registration act and became a fugitive. In the movie, Black Widow explains that Hawkeye took a deal with the government for his family's sake. </span></p><p><span>At the end of the movie, half of humanity disappears after Thanos acquires all of the Infinity Stones and snaps his fingers. But it's worth assuming that Hawkeye is alive and well and will play a bigger role in the sequel next year.</span></p><p><span>"Everybody's got to bite their tongue," Renner told USA Today. "But if you like 'Infinity War,' there's some stuff to come. What I do know is it's going to be awesome."</span></p><p><span>Since the other original Avengers remained intact at the end of the movie, we guess that Hawkeye did, too, and will finally join in on the action for the sequel. </span></p><p><span>We have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/future-of-marvel-cinematic-universe-after-avengers-infinity-war-2018-5#maybe-clint-barton-will-return-just-not-as-hawkeye-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our own guesses as to how exactly Hawkeye will return</a>: Since he's technically a fugitive, he could return as a character named Ronin (a Japanese term for a lone warrior), which is a mantle he takes on in the comic books after the events of the "Civil War" series.</span></p><p><span>We'll know for sure on May 3, 2019 when the untitled fourth "Avengers" movie hits theaters. </span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/street-artist-creates-3d-balloons-mylar-sweden-huge-art-2018-5">How a street artist creates 3D balloons on flat walls that seem to pop out at you</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Jeremy Renner says the 'Avengers: Infinity War' directors got death threats over Hawkeye

<ul class="summary-list"><li>D-Day on June 6, 1944 was a gargantuan feat. Is it the last invasion of its kind?</li><li>In World War II, the best way to stop an amphibious invasion was before troops reached the beach.</li></ul><p>D-Day is more than the largest amphibious invasion in history. Even 80 years after the battle, it still resonates as an epic of courage, endurance, and prodigious effort.</p><p>But was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/d-day-allies-invade-europe">D-Day</a> the last invasion of its kind? Could such immense resources be mustered again in a modern-day version of "Saving Private Ryan"-style landings?</p><p>World War II marked the zenith of wars waged between mass armies, an era that began in 1792, and modern weaponry, from guided missiles and spy satellites to nuclear bombs, has obviated large-scale amphibious invasions.</p><p>Even by the standards of WWII, the Allied invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944, was gargantuan. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dday-overlord.com/en/d-day/figures">Operation Overlord</a> embraced more than 2 million personnel, 13,000 aircraft and 7,000 vessels from a dozen nations. Six infantry divisions — three American, two British and one Canadian — would hit the beach simultaneously, while three airborne divisions — two American and one British — landed in the German rear.</p><p>Some 160,000 troops splashed ashore that Tuesday morning, including around 75,000 American and 61,000 British soldiers, plus 13,000 Allied paratroopers descending from the skies. And these were only the tip of a spear across Europe and the Pacific: the US Army expanded to 11 million personnel during the war — including 2 million in the European theater alone — while the British Army grew to 3 million strong.</p><p>These forces today are only a fraction of what they were then. The entire US Army only numbers around 450,000 active-duty soldiers; for Britain, it's 76,000 and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-army-armed-forces-ukraine-b2482059.html">shrinking</a>. There were 1,200 warships escorting the D-Day convoys of soldiers and equipment: today's US Navy has just 290 major warships and amphibious vessels spread around the globe, while the Royal Navy is down to 66 commissioned vessels. The Royal Canadian Air Force's 86 squadrons made it the world's fourth-largest air force in 1945, including nearly 40 squadrons that fought at Normandy: today it has just four fighter squadrons with 77 aging F/A-18 Hornet fighters.</p><div type="image" title="The Allies came ashore in five landing areas. American troops suffered heavy casualties on Omaha Beach, but by nightfall the first day 34,000 troops had come ashore at that beach alone." height="1576" width="2000" msid="110765551" hostid="261" sizebytes="299886"></div><p>D-Day's Allied planners were haunted by two fears: getting ashore despite German coastal defenses – and then surviving the inevitable German armored counterattack from Panzer divisions waiting behind the beaches. This meant there had to be enough transport capacity to land a large assault force and then quickly reinforce it with troops, supplies, and especially the tanks and artillery needed to even the odds in an armored fight.</p><p>More than 3,000 landing and transport vessels were tasked with this mission. The US Navy now aims for enough amphibious capacity to land just <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2023/05/02/marines-want-31-amphibious-ships-the-pentagon-disagrees-now-what/">two Marine brigades</a> on a hostile shore. More than 1,000 American C-47s transport planes dropped three airborne divisions on D-Day. With just over 200 C-17 cargo planes to meet worldwide airlift requirements, the current US Air Force would struggle to airdrop the entire 82nd Airborne Division.</p><p>All of which points to a fundamental difference between 1944 and 2024. The major combatants 80 years ago were committed to total war, in which they mobilized their human and industrial resources to the utmost. Today's Western militaries are much smaller volunteer forces, sustained by a defense-industrial base with only a fraction of its 1940s capacity. As shown by persistent shortages of weapons and ammunition in the Russo-Ukraine War, even if enough soldiers could be drafted to mount a Normandy-sized invasion, there wouldn't be enough equipment for them.</p><div type="image" title="US Troops wading through water after reaching Normandy and landing Omaha beach on D Day, 1944." height="4104" width="5100" msid="110765554" hostid="261" sizebytes="941884"></div><p>In World War II, the best way to stop an amphibious invasion was before the first troops stepped onto the beach. If the defender's navy and air force could destroy or turn back an invasion fleet, the landing would never take place. D-Day could only happen because, after a long and bloody struggle, the German surface fleet had been decimated, the U-boats suppressed, and the Luftwaffe mauled. Its forces defending French coasts were also spread thin because of the necessity of countering an advancing Soviet force of 140 divisions on the Eastern Front.</p><p>Though it must have seemed otherwise to troops splashing ashore under heavy fire, the very fact that the invasion was happening meant the battle for the beach already tipped in favor of the Allies. They could count on the naval bombardment and bombing runs to target German strongpoints and hammer its forces massing for a counterattack.</p><p>Isolated from reinforcement and resupply by US ships and aircraft, Japanese troops on Pacific islands, by contrast, could fight to the last man and inflict heavy casualties, but their destruction or isolation was only a matter of time. German counterattacks almost drove Allied landings at Sicily, Salerno and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/last-ride-anzio-german-counterattacks-february-1944">Anzio</a> into the sea, but aided by devastating naval gunfire, the bridgeheads held on.</p><p>Hitler placed great hopes in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/03/the-nazis-atlantic-wall-that-failed-to-prevent-d-day">Atlantic Wall</a>, a fortified belt across 1,700 miles of coastline. The bunkers and machine gun nests did inflict some losses at Normandy, especially during the bloodbath suffered by American soldiers landing on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1960/11/first-wave-at-omaha-beach/303365/">Omaha Beach</a>. But the Atlantic Wall was spread too thin to repel overwhelming Allied force at the landing sites.</p><p>In modern strategic parlance, stopping amphibious invasions is part of "anti-access/area denial," or A2/AD. Today's invasion planners worry that coastlines — and waters extending hundreds of miles from the beaches — are becoming no-go zones for warships and transports. Spy satellites and reconnaissance drones can discover an invasion fleet, exposing it to long-range attacks and giving the defender more time to mass troops and firepower in the likely landing zone. Coastal defense weapons include hypersonic anti-ship missiles streaking in at 10 times the speed of sound, GPS-guided cruise missiles and glide bombs, small but stealthy submarines, long-range guided artillery shells, and a variety of aerial and maritime drones. An enemy that has these can threaten the invasion armada and the landing force it launches as it chugs to the beach.</p><p>And it's not just major powers like Russia and China that have these arms: even smaller powers like Iran and North Korea could turn beaches into death traps.</p><p>There are already signs of this. In the 1982 Falklands War, the Argentine Air Force — armed with bombs and a few Exocet anti-ship missiles — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-60929073">sank six British warships</a> and transports, and nearly derailed the invasion. And in the ongoing Ukraine war, despite initial fears that the Russian Navy would shell cities and land amphibious troops, the <a target="_blank" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/02/ukraine-war-black-sea-russia-front/">Black Sea Fleet</a> has lost two dozen warships and amphibious vessels to anti-ship missiles and small, robotic boats packed with explosives. Russia may have a much larger navy than Ukraine, but it doesn't dare venture closer to the Ukrainian coast.</p><p>Of course, it can be argued that technology works both ways. Smart bombs can destroy coastal defenses. Helicopters can ferry troops and supplies from an amphibious fleet <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/27/IHT-troops-seize-airstrip-neartaliban-base-us-marines-land-in-afghanistan.html">hundreds of miles</a> away. Drones likes unmanned tanks and mine-clearing robots can clear beach obstacles.</p><div type="image" title="A US nuclear bomb set off at Bikini Atoll in 1946 tested the weapon's effects on warships." height="1515" width="2000" msid="110765547" hostid="261" sizebytes="100386"></div><p>Yet ultimately, what has really killed massive amphibious invasions is the poisonous mushroom cloud. Even as far back as 1945, after the US atomic blasts at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nations realized that a single bomb capable of destroying a city could also wipe out an amphibious fleet. The U.S. Navy tests at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phKPb5-WyF8">Bikini Atoll</a> in 1946 vividly demonstrated how a nuclear blast could smash even battleships and aircraft carriers like bathtub toys. Russia for example is armed to the teeth with tactical nukes that could devastate a massed fleet.</p><p>This doesn't mean that amphibious operations are obsolete. They are still needed on a planet that is 71 percent water, and where the ocean is often the only feasible way to transport armies. But we should honor the memory of D-Day, because we shall never see another day like it again.</p><p><em>Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on </em><a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1"><em>Twitter</em></a><em> and </em><a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/"><em>LinkedIn</em></a><em>.</em></p>

D-Day was the largest amphibious invasion in history — and likely the last. Here's why.

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>(AP Photo)</span></p><p class="caption">Sailors stand among wrecked airplanes at Ford Island Naval Air Station as they watch the explosion of the USS Shaw in the background, during the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>The US campaign in the Pacific got off to a slow start after the attack on Pearl Harbor.</strong></li><li><strong>But by spring 1943, US forces were in a position to go after the architect of the attack.</strong></li><li><strong>The daring, high-risk mission was successful, but how it played out was unclear for decades.</strong></li></ul><p>The Japanese attack on the US Navy at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, propelled the US into a war that had been raging for years.</p><p>The US campaign had a mixed start. In April 1942, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ap-last-doolittle-raider-101-recalls-attack-75-years-later-2017-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">success of the Doolittle Raid</a> on Japan was leavened by the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bataan-death-march-photos-from-world-war-ii-2017-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">horrors of the Bataan Death March</a>, during which thousands of US and Philippine soldiers died.</p><p>But mid-1942 saw <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battle-of-the-coral-sea-world-war-ii-anniversary-2018-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Battle of the Coral Sea</a>, when the Allies beat the Japanese in the first naval battle in which the combatants were never within sight of each other, and the Battle of Midway, when outnumbered US forces <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-tricked-into-revealing-battle-of-midway-plans-in-world-war-ii-2018-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fooled and cripple</a> the Japanese navy.</p><p>By February 1943, the US had secured Guadalcanal after the first major Allied offensive in the theater. From there, US forces were able to plot retribution for the attack that started it all.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>(AP Photo/Robert Kradin)</span></p><p class="caption">People buy newspapers reporting the Japanese attack on the US in the Pacific, at Times Square in New York City, December 7, 1941.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>On April 13, 1943, US naval intelligence intercepted a coded signal sent to Japanese commanders in the area around Bougainville, in the Solomon Islands northwest of Guadalcanal.</p><p>The US had long since broke Japan's codes. The April 13 message was sent in a new variant, but US intelligence deciphered it in short order.</p><p><span>"On April 18 CINC Combined Fleet will visit RXZ, R-, and RXP in accordance with the following schedule..." the <a href="https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/operation-vengeance-the-mission-to-kill-admiral-yamamoto/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">message</a> began. Adm. Isokoru Yamamoto, commander in chief of Japan's Combined Fleet and planner of the Pearl Harbor attack, was visiting Japanese units in the Solomons.</span></p><p><span>The message <a href="https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Volume-32_Issue-4/V-Martin.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revealed</a> not only the trip but also the schedule, the planes - two Mitsubishi G4M "Betty" medium bombers escorted by six Zero fighters - that would be involved, the orders for commanders at Bougainville, and the recommended uniforms.</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>(AP Photo)</span></p><p class="caption">Japanese navy Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto, commander of Japan's Combined Fleet, in Japan on December 12, 1941.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>Yamamoto was one of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/opinion/a-reluctant-enemy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">most charismatic</a> and forward-thinking naval officers of his generation. He graduated from</span><span> Japanese Naval Academy in 1904 and fought in the Russo-Japanese war, where he lost two fingers at the Battle of Tsushima in 1905.</span></p><p>He went to the US in the 1920s, learning English and studying at Harvard and at the US Naval War College, where he learned about a new style of naval warfare fought with carrier and island-based planes.</p><p>He reformed Japan's navy and was highly regarded by sailors and the Japanese royal family. While he was no pacifist, he was part of a moderate faction within the navy.</p><p>He <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/opinion/a-reluctant-enemy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">criticized bellicosity</a> from right-wing ultranationalists, scorned the army and its leaders who undercut civilian officials, and resisted an alliance with Nazi Germany. This earned him death threats.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:H78628_Isoroku_Yamamoto.jpg">US Naval Historical Center/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></p><p class="caption">Then-Capt. Isoroku Yamamoto, Japanese naval attache to the US, with US Secretary of the Navy Curtis D. Wilbur in the late 1920s.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>As Japan's naval attache in Washington in the late 1920s, he traveled the US and witnessed its might.</p><p>"<span>Anyone who has seen the auto factories in Detroit and the oil fields in Texas," he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/opinion/a-reluctant-enemy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> later, "knows that Japan lacks the national power for a naval race with America."</span></p><p>He cautioned against a war with the US but took part in its planning and believed only a knockout blow could spare Japan a ruinous end. "<span>We should do our best to decide the fate of the war on the very first day," he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/opinion/a-reluctant-enemy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>.</span></p><p><span>His plan for a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor was resisted, but he pushed it through, noting the irony of spearheading a mission he opposed. "Alas, is that fate?" he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/opinion/a-reluctant-enemy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> to a friend.</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Admiral_Yamamoto_in_Rabaul_1943.jpg">Japanese Media/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></p><p class="caption">A colorized photo of Japanese navy Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto at his base in Rabaul before his death in 1943.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span>Despite Yamamoto's reservations about the war, he became the face of the enemy after Pearl Harbor, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/opinion/a-reluctant-enemy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">appearing</a> on the cover of Time magazine on December 22, 1941, under the headline "Japan's Aggressor."</span></p><p>If the name "Operation Vengeance" didn't illustrate US sentiment toward him, Pacific Fleet chief Adm. William "Bull" Halsey got the point across <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-the-us-assassinated-the-japanese-admiral-who-planned-20202" target="_blank" rel="noopener">with the order</a>, "<span>TALLY HO X LET'S GET THE BASTARD."</span></p><p>President Franklin Roosevelt is reputed to have told the Navy, "Get Yamamoto." (It's not clear he actually said that.) Adm. Chester Nimitz, the US commander in the Pacific, gave the go-ahead to shoot down Yamamoto's plane - a task assigned to the 339th Fighter Squadron.</p><p>But <span>all the motivation didn't make the operation easier.</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:G4M-34s.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span></p><p class="caption">A Japanese navy Mitsubishi G4M1 medium bomber.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span>Navy and Marine fighters didn't have the range to intercept Yamamoto and his escorts over Bougainville. </span>The Army Air Force's twin-engine P-38G Lighting had the range to get there and the firepower to deal with the bombers and the fighters.</p><p><span>Eighteen P-38s - 16 for the attack and two extras - were selected and outfitted with extra tanks of fuel. Maj. John Mitchell, commander of the 339th, <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/living/index.ssf/2013/04/historian_says_oregonian_rex_b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> he wasn't sure the P-38s could take off with the added weight.</span></p><p>Four fighters, <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/living/index.ssf/2013/04/historian_says_oregonian_rex_b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called</a> the Killer Division, were to attack the bombers, one of which would be carrying Yamamoto. The rest would attack the fighter escorts.</p><p>To avoid detection, planners wanted the P-38s to fly "<span>at least 50 miles offshore of these islands, which meant dead-reckoning over 400 miles over water at fifty feet or less, a prodigious feat of navigation," <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-the-us-assassinated-the-japanese-admiral-who-planned-20202" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according</a> to a history of the 13th Fighter Command, of which the 339th Fighter Squadron was part.</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>(AP Photo)</span></p><p class="caption">An early model of the P-38 Lightning over Los Angeles, November 20, 1940.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span>The approach was complicated by the lack of radar to guide the P-38s. </span>They would have to navigate with charts, though estimates of Yamamoto's plane's speed and the weather conditions, as well as his reputation for punctuality, allowed US planners to calculate where he'd be.</p><p><span>They <a href="https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/operation-vengeance-the-mission-to-kill-admiral-yamamoto/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">planned</a> for a 1,000-mile round trip, with a 600-mile approach flight from the south. Mitchell, the squadron commander, gave the plan <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/living/index.ssf/2013/04/historian_says_oregonian_rex_b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1,000-to-1 odds</a> of success.</span></p><p><span>They left Henderson Field early on April 18, 1943 - the first anniversary of the Doolittle Raid. The monotony of the long flight combined with the low altitude increased the risks. </span>One pilot <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/living/index.ssf/2013/04/historian_says_oregonian_rex_b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">counted</a> sharks to stay awake; he saw 48.</p><p><span>Despite lacking navigational aids, they got to Bougainville just as Yamamoto's convoy -</span><span> the two bombers and six fighters 1,500 feet above them - flew into the area. </span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>(AP Photo)</span></p><p class="caption">US Army Air Force P-38 Lightning fighter planes in formation, June 1, 1943.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span>Twelve of the P-38s climbed to the Zeroes; the other four headed to the bombers, not sure which carried Yamamoto.</span></p><p><span>The US fighters split up and chased the bombers, shooting both down. One crashed into the jungle on Bougainville, killing all aboard - including Yamamoto. The other plunged into the ocean.</span></p><p><span>Japanese troops on Bougainville eventually found the wreckage of Yamamoto's plane. The bodies on board were cremated and put in boxes that returned to Japan.</span></p><p><span>"His cremation pit was filled, and two papaya trees, his favorite fruit, were planted on the mound," <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-the-us-assassinated-the-japanese-admiral-who-planned-20202" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according</a> to the 13th Fighter Command history. "A shrine was erected, and Japanese naval personnel cared for the graves until the end of the war."</span></p><p><span>Yamamoto's death was kept <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/living/index.ssf/2013/04/historian_says_oregonian_rex_b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">secret</a> for some time, but he was eventually given a state funeral.</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Yamamoto%27s_airplane_crash.jpg#/media/File:Yamamoto%27s_airplane_crash.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span></p><p class="caption">The wreck of the Mitsubishi G4M1 Model 11 bomber shot down over Bougainville in April 1943, killing Imperial Japanese navy Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span>The US planes, minus one downed during the operation, returned to Henderson Field around noon, with some running out of fuel as they touched down. </span></p><p>While Yamamoto met his end on April 18, 1943, how it arrived was less clear.</p><p><span>Capt. Thomas Lanphier, who led the four fighters targeting the Japanese bombers, and his wingman, 1st. Lt. Rex Barber, were both credited with a kill on the mission. </span></p><p><span>The Air Force reviewed records in the 1970s and reduced it to <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/living/index.ssf/2013/04/historian_says_oregonian_rex_b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a half-kill each</a>, but it remained unclear who had shot down the bomber carrying Yamamoto.</span></p><p><span>In 1998, a panel of the surviving US pilots and one Japanese Zero pilot considered eyewitness comments, reports from Barber and Lanphier, and an examination of the bomber that crashed on Bougainville. </span></p><p><span>Fifty-five years after Yamamoto was sent crashing into the jungle, they <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/living/index.ssf/2013/04/historian_says_oregonian_rex_b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">concluded</a> Barber had put him there.</span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/animated-map-how-wwi-changed-europe-borders-2017-4">This animated map shows how World War I changed Europe's borders</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Here's how the US pulled off a daring mission to take out the mastermind of the attack on Pearl Harbor

<p>Welcome back to <strong><a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/10-things-in-politics">10 Things in Politics</a></strong>. <strong><a href="http://newsletter.businessinsider.com/join/10-things-in-politics">Sign up here to receive this newsletter</a></strong>. Plus, download Insider's app for news on the go - click <a href="https://apps.apple.com/app/apple-store/id554260576">here for iOS</a> and <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.freerange360.mpp.businessinsider">here for Android</a>. Send tips to <a href="mailto:bgriffiths@insider.com">bgriffiths@insider.com</a>.</p><p><strong>Here's what we're talking about:</strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-guidance-trick-or-treat-celebrate-halloween-covid-coronavirus-mask-2021-10"></a></p><ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abbott-bans-private-companies-from-mandating-covid-19-vaccines-2021-10">Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order barring private companies in Texas from mandating COVID-19 vaccines</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/foia-insider-biden-trump-pence-gsa-lawsuit-staffing-records-2021-10">Insider is suing the Biden administration for secret Trump and Pence staffing records</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stephanie-grisham-says-she-has-no-illusions-shell-be-forgiven-2021-10">Stephanie Grisham doesn't want forgiveness. She just wants to stop Trump from winning again.</a></li></ul><p><em>With Phil Rosen.</em></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>1. A TEXAS-SIZE FIGHT: </strong>Texas is ready to mess with President Joe Biden over vaccines. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's declaration <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abbott-bans-private-companies-from-mandating-covid-19-vaccines-2021-10">outlawing all private companies from imposing vaccine mandates</a> sets him and his state on a collision course with the federal government, further raising the tension between the White House and Republican governors over pandemic policy.</p><p><strong>Here's what you need to know:</strong></p><p><strong>Legal experts expect Biden to win this fight: </strong>​​"I would not take it seriously as a legal measure," a University of Texas law professor, Sanford Levinson, <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/10/11/gov-greg-abbott-says-no-texas-business-can-force-employee-to-take-covid-19-vaccine/">told The Dallas Morning News</a>, "unless very surprisingly this argument that Biden just doesn't have the power, that the Labor Department just doesn't have the power, prevails - and I don't think that's the case."</p><p><strong>Another Texas law professor had this to add:</strong></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1447724315596640257"><strong><div type="image" title="Steve Vladeck" height="360" width="1182" msid="86964067" hostid="261"></div></strong></a></p><p><strong>This is about a lot more than Texas: </strong>American Airlines, the nation's largest carrier, is based in Fort Worth; Southwest Airlines also calls the state home. Large numbers of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/texas-governor-bars-all-vaccine-mandates-state-2021-10-11/">Alphabet and Facebook employees</a> are also in Texas, per Reuters. Both tech companies have pledged to implement a COVID-19 vaccine mandate. And Mark Cuban's Dallas Mavericks are <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/10/02/half-of-nba-teams-require-covid-19-vaccines-or-tests-for-fans-to-attend-games-see-full-list/?sh=152e0c1413f0">among the NBA teams</a> requiring fans to be fully vaccinated or show a negative test. All of these entities would now appear to be under conflicting federal and state orders on vaccines.</p><p><strong>Abbott's action shows where the right stands: </strong>Texas has been among the conservative vanguard in pandemic policies. But even that was not enough to please some of Abbott's primary challengers, who felt the governor's previous ban on vaccine mandates by local governments did not go far enough.</p><ul><li><strong>This is also a flip-flop for Abbott: </strong>As The Texas Tribune points out, his office made it pretty <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/11/texas-greg-abbott-covid-19-vaccine-mandate/">explicit in August that it didn't believe this was necessary</a>. A representative for Abbott said then that "private businesses don't need government running their business."</li></ul><p><strong>Check out how one of Abbott's primary challengers responded:</strong></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DonHuffines/status/1447697167477510150?s=20"><div type="image" title="Don Huffines tweet" height="586" width="1196" msid="86964069" hostid="261"></div></a></p><p><strong>Other serious vaccine-related challenges remain: </strong>"Experts in vaccine behavior fear that the country is bumping up against the ceiling of persuadable people," The New York Times reports. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/11/health/covid-boosters-unvaccinated.html">Here are where things stand in the US's vaccination efforts</a>.</p><p><strong>2. Democrats are set to slash Biden's $300 billion plan to build millions of homes: </strong>The White House hoped to fight the housing crisis with its $3.5 trillion social-spending package, but opposition from Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema has forced Democrats to shrink the plan. And as party leaders prepare a revised package, $300 billion set aside for housing aid is under siege. Overall, the funds could create more than 2 million new homes, according to estimates from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-shortage-democrats-cut-funds-biden-reconciliation-house-prices-2021-10">More on the Democratic infighting over what to keep and what to cut from the $3.5 trillion spending plan</a>.</p><p><strong>3. Insider sues Biden administration over Trump's records: </strong>The lawsuit seeks to compel the General Services Administration to provide the names of nine staff members who worked for Donald Trump and Mike Pence in the months after they left office. In response to previous requests, the agency released the names of some staffers who continued to work for Trump and Pence, including the Trump aides Stephen Miller and Dan Scavino. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/foia-insider-biden-trump-pence-gsa-lawsuit-staffing-records-2021-10">More on Insider's fight to reveal how taxpayer money is being spent</a>.</p><p><strong><div type="image" title="Jon Gruden." height="1700" width="2551" msid="86964071" hostid="261"></div></strong></p><p><strong>4. Raiders head coach Jon Gruden resigns amid email scandal: </strong>Gruden, who was already under fire for using racist language in a 2011 email, resigned Monday after additional messages came to light showing he called the NFL's commissioner, Roger Goodell, a "pussy" and mocked the gay NFL draftee Michael Sam. Gruden's messages, described by The New York Times, were said to be sent to Bruce Allen, then the president of the Washington Football Team, when Gruden worked for ESPN. The NFL obtained more than 650,000 emails from Washington as part of a massive investigation into the franchise's culture. <a href="http://insider.com/raiders-coach-gruden-called-goodell-pussy-mocked-gay-player-nyt-2021-10">Here's how the latest revelation is playing out across the NFL</a>.</p><p><strong>5. Stephanie Grisham doesn't want forgiveness: </strong>Grisham, the former high-level Trump aide who published a searing tell-all, told Insider she's "under no illusions" that critics would forgive her for the prominent role she played in Trump's White House. Instead, she wants to stop Trump from winning in 2024, warning that a victorious Trump's "first thought process is going to be revenge and retribution." <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stephanie-grisham-says-she-has-no-illusions-shell-be-forgiven-2021-10">More on what Grisham says is ahead, including why Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump might not return to the White House</a>.</p><p><strong><div type="image" title="Southwest Boeing 737-800" height="724" width="1086" msid="86964072" hostid="261"></div></strong></p><p><strong>6. Southwest cancels hundreds of more flights: </strong>Southwest canceled more than 350 flights on Monday, continuing a difficult stretch for the airline that it has blamed on weather and air-traffic-control issues, the Associated Press reports. The Federal Aviation Administration did push back on Southwest's claim about air-traffic-control issues, saying "some airlines" had issues getting their crews in the right place. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-business-travel-airlines-2a099f47993c0833c8a7104e1e46af0d">Here's where things stand as stranded passengers try to get home</a>.</p><ul><li><strong>There's no evidence this has anything to do with vaccines: </strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/no-evidence-southwest-flights-were-cancelled-due-to-vaccine-protest-2021-10">The FAA, Southwest, and a union representing Southwest pilots have said there's no evidence of worker protests to Southwest's vaccine mandate</a>.</li></ul><p><strong>7. Evergrande crisis continues to spook markets: </strong>Markets expect the deeply troubled Chinese company to miss its third round of bond payments in three weeks, Reuters reports. <a href="https://www.insider.com/looming-evergrande-bond-coupon-payments-intensify-contagion-fears-2021-10">Traders are now turning their attention to other distressed developers as worries about a wide fallout continue to escalate</a>.</p><p><strong>8. Kim Jong Un touts North Korean military might: </strong>Kim used a rare public display of the country's weapons to try to divide the US from South Korea while accusing the US of "continuing to create tensions in the region with its wrong judgments and actions," the AP reports. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-south-korea-seoul-united-states-60c8d0cce730fa25edcb2697df72254f">North Korea has sent a series of mixed signals in recent weeks</a>.</p><p><strong>9. </strong><strong>A </strong><strong>COVID-19 pill took its next step toward becoming a reality:</strong> Merck requested FDA authorization for its pill, the next step toward rolling it out to the public. Merck and its fellow developer Ridgeback Biotherapeutics say the pill "significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization or death" from COVID-19 in a late-stage trial. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/merck-asks-fda-to-authorize-covid-19-antiviral-pill-2021-10">If cleared, it would be the first oral antiviral in use for COVID-19</a>.</p><p><strong>10. </strong><strong>Bond is underperforming at the box office. </strong>The latest James Bond film, "No Time To Die," is the first sign of turbulence for the latest wave of blockbuster hopefuls. The action film earned $56 million in its US opening weekend, below some analysts' expectations. This could hint at trouble for would-be hits in a crowded Hollywood market that is still recovering from the pandemic. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-no-time-to-die-box-office-means-future-blockbusters-2021-10">And yet, Bond is performing up to par globally</a>.</p><p><em><strong>Today's trivia question: </strong>The Bidens attended their nephew's wedding to the reality-TV star Meghan King on Monday. Who is the first and only president to get married at the White House?</em></p><ul><li><strong><em>Yesterday's answer: </em></strong>Teddy Roosevelt was the first president and first American to win the Nobel Peace Prize <a href="https://blogs.loc.gov/headlinesandheroes/2020/06/theodore-roosevelt-a-president-of-firsts/">when he won in 1906 for negotiating peace in the Russo-Japanese War</a>.</li></ul>

10 Things in Politics: Texas amps up vaccine fight

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>China Photos/Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">A Chinese submarine launches a missile in an offshore blockade exercise during the third phase of the Sino-Russian 'Peace Mission 2005' joint military exercise, held August 23, 2005 near China's Shandong Peninsula.</p></div><p></p></div></div>The rapid buildup of Chinese debt between 2008 and 2015 was nothing short of historic.</p><p>In that time, the<span> country's debt-to-GDP level nearly doubled from 154% to 249%.</span></p><p><span>That "ranks in the 98th percentile of debt buildups in modern history," according to a note from Andrew Tilton and Jonathan Sequiera at Goldman Sachs, published on Monday.</span></p><p><span>There are few comparable examples outside of war time.</span></p><p>Goldman Sachs, adjusting for the sheer size of China's economy said there were parallels with "Japan in the first decade of the 1900s during and after the Russo-Japanese War, Canada and several European countries during and after World War I, and the United States during and after World War II."</p><p>Here is the chart:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>When it comes to the nominal amount of debt added, coupled with the sheer size of China's economy, there really is no precedent since 1960, according to Goldman Sachs, which calls the buildup an "outlier in the historical record."</p><p>Here's the chart to show how much China stands out:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Goldman Sachs said "one of the most frequent questions" from clients is whether this will inevitably lead to a financial crisis when the bubble bursts. While banking crises are "common," Goldman Sachs said, they're "not inevitable."</p><p>Let's hope so.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/best-time-rent-apartment-us-cities-renthop-2016-6">The best and worst months to rent an apartment in major US cities</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="43ankyNDE66UsoZpyT_zFFRF7ttuSOdY" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

GOLDMAN SACHS: China's 7-year debt boom is one of the biggest and fastest in history

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP Photo</span></p><p class="caption">Theodore Roosevelt campaigns for the Presidency in 1904.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Theodore Roosevelt is widely regarded by historians as one of the greatest American presidents.</p><p>Born to a wealthy Manhattan family in 1858, Roosevelt grew up both sickly and pampered, but decided that he would not only overcome his debilitating asthma and become a cowboy but serve the American people through <keyword id="6358883" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Politics">politics</keyword> rather than relax with his father's money. This resilience and drive would inspire his distant cousin and future president Franklin D. Roosevelt decades later.</p><p>Teddy Roosevelt served as a New York assemblyman, the New York City police commissioner, lieutenant colonel in the Spanish-American War, assistant secretary of the Navy, the governor of New York, and then President William McKinley's vice president. After McKinley was assassinated in 1901, he became the country's youngest president at age 43.</p><p>Roosevelt brought the US into the Progressive Era, breaking up corporate monopolies, forming the conservation movement, and greatly increasing American influence around the world. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1906 for brokering the end of the Russo-Japanese War.</p><p>He was also a master orator and prolific writer. We've gone through speeches, interviews, and letters for a few of his most memorable insights.</p>

15 Teddy Roosevelt quotes on courage, leadership, and success

<p><em><span class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><span><span data-post-image="" class="image on-image"></span><p></p></span></span>Rapid changes in the financial markets and the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/rouble-strengthens-after-russian-central-bank-hikes-rates-2014-12">Russian economy</a>&#xa0;are forcing Vladimir Putin to change his calculus.<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><br /></span></em></p>
<p><em>Now the Russian president has a choice between doubling down on his aggressive foreign policy or concentrate on putting Russia in order.</em></p>
<p>This week's plunge in the value of the ruble adds another layer of uncertainty to the ongoing faceoff between Russia and the West.</p>
<p>The currency crisis, precipitated by US and EU sanctions against Moscow and a global decline in oil prices, threatens to crater the country's lucrative state-owned enterprises and send the economy into a nosedive.</p>
<p>The question is how an ever-unpredictable Vladimir Putin will <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bremmer-putin-now-needs-scapegoats-2014-12">respond</a>.</p>
<p>Putin's nationalistic and often-aggressive policies have appealed to Russians' post-Cold War sense of grievance and won him <a href="http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml">soaring approval ratings</a> at a time when the Russian president is loathed in most western capitals.</p>
<p>But the ruble dive threatens to radically shift the conditions that have allowed Putin to maintain his internal popularity in spite of the western powers' opposition to him.&#xa0;</p>
<p>As New York University professor and Russia expert Mark Galeotti explained to Business Insider, Putin's rule is predicated on a "social contract" that most Russians have found acceptable: "Y<span style="color: #000000;">ou stay out of <keyword id="6358883" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Politics">politics</keyword>. You show enthusiasm but don't think you actually get a meaningful say in government. I</span><span style="color: #000000;">n return for that your life will improve and continue to improve."</span></p>
<p>Under Putin, Russia achieved <a href="http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/paper.cfm?ResearchID=974">perhaps the highest standard of living in the country's history</a> while the government was able to replenish its coffers after periods of actual bankruptcy under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s. Weaknesses remained: The new prosperity was largely distributed <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/dec/18/how-he-and-his-cronies-stole-russia/">through Putin's hand-picked former KGB colleagues</a> and much of the country's wealth depended upon robust oil prices and access to European markets. <a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-defense-budget-to-hit-record-81bln-in-2015/509536.html">Record military spending</a> also threatens to sap resources and hamstring any government response to a future economic crisis.</p>
<p>The recent decline in oil prices, along with the economic consequences of <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> sanctions, could bring Putin's arrangement crashing down around him. "T<span style="color: #000000;">his social contract is being torn up," says Galeotti. "But Putin could tear it up more quickly and more assiduously if he's still determined to maintain his aggressive geopolitical stance. It really is one of those guns or butter moments."</span></p>
<p><span class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><span><span data-post-image="" class="image on-image"></span><p></p></span></span></p>
<p>Galeotti believes that Moscow may send additional troops to eastern Ukraine in the hopes of pressuring Kiev into a settlement that would result in the lifting of international sanctions. But the immediate of escalation - beyond the Kremlin's current spate of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/lithuanias-military-is-on-alert-over-russian-moves-2014-12">military mobilizations</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-flies-provocative-aerial-operations-2014-11">provocative military flights</a> near and even in European airspace - remain low.</p>
<p>Putin has nothing to gain from fresh geopolitical turmoil, especially now. "If we assume that Putin and company want to maximize their chances of exiting this crisis with their fortunes and, ideally, their political power mostly intact, then they need to worry about how NATO and the markets will respond to fresh aggression," Jay Ulfedler, a political scientist and director of the <a href="https://cpgearlywarning.wordpress.com/tag/jay-ulfelder/">Early Warning Project</a>, told Business Insider. "At this point, I don't see many options for new aggression that carry serious domestic benefits for Russia and don't risk huge new costs, perhaps including a direct war with NATO."</p>
<p>But that's only in the short term. The Russian state has enough money to backstop the ruble for the time being and Moscow has the ability to bail out some of the state's vital assets. "<span style="line-height: 1.5em;">The country's strategic reserves may be (and I think will be) dispatched to help save some of the industries and businesses that are considered strategic (RosNeft and GazProm are first in that list), but others may be sacrificed," Hannah Thoburn, a Eurasia analyst at the Foreign Policy Initiative, told Business Insider.&#xa0;</span></p>
<p>The alternative is economic collapse and the severing of Putin's social contract - a scenario that could lead to internal disruptions serious enough to put Russia on an even more more aggressive footing.</p>
<p>In an economic worst-case scenario, Russia could see "an increasing tide of protest" and "an accretion of signs of concern" as popular discontent grows, Galeotti explains. In that situation, "the elite may also start to wonder if Putin is really the guy they want in charge."&#xa0;</p>
<p>In the face of public backlash and internal revolt, the long-serving Russian president may feel he has little choice but to rally nationalistic sentiment and push his advantage over his western rivals, which currently resides in the Kremlin's willingness to violently impose its will and violate the sovereignty of Russia's European neighbors.&#xa0;</p>
<p><span class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><span><span data-post-image="" class="image on-image"></span><p></p></span></span></p>
<p>Geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer&#xa0;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bremmer-putin-now-needs-scapegoats-2014-12#ixzz3M5xh1Sel">told Business Insider</a>&#xa0;that if he feels he's backed into a corner, Putin's options include more cyberattacks, "more aggression/incursion around NATO borders, excuses found for expansion of military engagement beyond present zone in Russia, [and] closer ties/integration with China."</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">And then there's the worst-case scenario, an economic meltdown bad enough to convince Putin that the continuity of his rule is under threat. Galeotti says that complete Russian economic collapse is "a possibility but not a probability." But as he notes, "imperial adventurism" in the face of political or social crisis is a Kremlin tactic dating back to the </span><a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1899-1913/portsmouth-treaty">disastrous Russo-Japanese war in 1905</a><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">.&#xa0;</span></p>
<p>It's one that Putin could resort to if things get worse. And b<span>etween eastern Moldova, eastern Ukraine, and parts of Kazakhstan, former Soviet possessions that many Russians believe to be part of the national patrimony, Putin wouldn't have a shortage of obvious targets.</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">&#xa0;</span></p>

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