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The <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> fell 27 paise to close at 82.05 (provisional) against the US currency on Tuesday, weighed down by a strong greenback against major rivals overseas and a muted trend in domestic equities. At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 81.84 against the dollar and slipped below the 82 levels to close at 82.05 (provisional), down 27 paise from its previous close. During the day, the rupee witnessed a high of 81.83 and a low of 82.15 against the greenback. On Monday, the rupee settled at 81.78 against the dollar. The rupee depreciated and is at its lowest level in two and half weeks on the positive US Dollar index. However, soft crude oil prices cushioned the downside, said Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.10 per cent to 101.47. "US Dollar gained on risk aversion in global markets and as the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows banks continued to tighten credit conditions for business and households, but it was better than expected," Choudhary added. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.88 per cent to <keyword id="54123" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="usd" source="Orion">USD</keyword> 76.33 per barrel. "We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on the strong Dollar amid safe haven appeal on the back of risk aversion in global markets and worries over a global economic slowdown. "However, softening crude oil prices at higher levels and FII inflows may support the rupee at lower levels. Investors may remain cautious ahead of inflation data from India and the US later this week. We expect USD/INR spot to trade in between 81.60 to 82.75 in the near term," Choudhary added. On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex closed 2.92 points lower at 61,761.33. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 1.55 points to 18,265.95. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday as they purchased shares worth Rs 2,123.76 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/fpis-pump-9677-crore-into-financial-services-and-auto-stocks-in-april/articleshow/100100496.cms">FPIs pump ₹9,677 crore into financial services and auto stocks in April</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/sensex-closes-at-61761-on-fag-end-volatility-after-crossing-62000-during-the-day/articleshow/100101148.cms">Sensex closes at 61,761 on fag-end volatility after crossing 62,000 during the day</a>

Rupee weighed down strong greenback, falls 27 paise to close at 82.05/USD

The <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> gained 57 paise to close at 81.78 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday, the biggest single-day gain since November. Forex traders said the rupee was the best performer among Asian currencies and now has the support of 81.70. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 82.20 and touched an intra-day high of 81.72 and a low of 82.26 against the greenback. It finally ended at 81.78 (provisional), registering a rise of 57 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee settled at 82.35 against the US dollar. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, advanced 0.12 per cent to 103.12. The rupee became the best performer among the Asian currencies following stop order triggers and inflows from bond selling, said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, <keyword id="11837714" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="hdfc" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="hdfc" meta.entityname="Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd." meta.entityid="13640" meta.seoname="housing-development-finance-corporation-ltd">HDFC</keyword> Securities. "The local unit witnessed the biggest single-day gains after November 11 and broke the psychological level of 82 as the traders rushed to cover the positions," Parmar said. Parmar further noted that Spot USD/INR now has the support of 81.70, "the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement adjoining the November 14 low of 80.51 and the January 03 high of 82.94. The near-term view remains bearish for the pair and a level below 81.70 will pave way for 81.45 while on the higher side 82.10 acts as resistance". On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 631.83 points or 1.04 per cent to end at 60,115.48, while the broader NSE Nifty fell 187.05 points or 1.03 per cent to 17,914.15. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.13 per cent to <keyword id="54123" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="usd" source="Orion">USD</keyword> 79.75 per barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Monday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 203.13 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/net-inflows-in-mf-schemes-up-three-times-at-7303-crore-in-december/articleshow/96881163.cms">Investors continue to SIP on equities: Net Inflows in MF schemes up three times at ₹7,303 crore in December</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/tcs-tata-motors-paytm-among-stocks-in-focus-on-tuesday/articleshow/96870156.cms">Sensex sheds 632 points, Nifty50 falls 187 points as PSU bank, financial services and IT stocks drag</a>

Rupee gains 57 paise to close at 81.78 against US dollar

The rupee appreciated 6 paise to 78.27 against the US dollar in opening trade on Monday as heavy buying in domestic equities and weakness in the greenback strengthened investor sentiment. However, elevated crude prices and persistent foreign fund outflows restricted the rupee's gain, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened sharply up at 78.24 against the US dollar, then inched lower to quote 78.27, registering a gain of 6 paise over the last close. In the previous session, the rupee had closed at its all-time low of 78.33 against the US dollar. On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share Sensex was trading 589.05 points or 1.12 per cent higher at 53,317.03, while the broader NSE Nifty advanced 179.65 points or 1.14 per cent to 15,878.90. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, slipped 0.14 per cent to 104.03. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.57 per cent to USD 113.77 per barrel. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers in the capital market on Friday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 2,353.77 crore on a net basis, as per exchange data. Foreign investors continue to desert Indian equity markets and pulled out close to Rs 46,000 crore so far this month following monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank and US Federal Reserve, high oil prices and volatile rupee. The net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities reached Rs 2.13 lakh crore till now this year, data with depositories showed. Given the policy normalisation narrative by the US Fed and other major central banks, coupled with high oil prices and volatile rupee, FPIs are likely to stay away from emerging market assets, Hitesh Jain, Lead Analyst - Institutional Equities, Yes Securities, said. SEE ALSO <a class="tout-title-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/adani-enterprises-maruti-suzuki-infosys-among-stocks-to-watch-out-for-on-june-27/slidelist/92481042.cms" style="">Adani Enterprises, Maruti Suzuki, Infosys among stocks to watch out for on June 27</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/oil-prices-could-slump-to-75-a-barrel-in-a-recession-or-jump-to-150-if-european-sanctions-slam-russian-supplies-bofa-says/articleshow/92474354.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" style="">Oil prices could slump to $75 a barrel in a recession — or jump to $150 if European sanctions slam Russian supplies, BofA says</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/tesla-is-laying-off-workers-who-only-just-started-and-withdrawing-employment-offers-as-elon-musks-job-cuts-begin/articleshow/92470514.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" style="">Tesla is laying off workers who only just started and withdrawing employment offers as Elon Musk's job cuts begin</a>

Rupee gains 6 paise against the dollar on heavy buying in equities

Recovering from its record low, the <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> appreciated 13 paise to 78.90 against the <keyword id="6368584" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-dollar" source="Orion">US dollar</keyword> on Thursday. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 78.92 against the American dollar. In initial trade, the local currency witnessed a high of 78.90 and a low of 78.94 against the US dollar. In the previous session, the rupee had closed at its all-time low of 79.03 against the US dollar. According to Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, the range for the rupee today is 78.65-79.05. "Asian currencies have started mixed, but currencies could remain under pressure after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there is a risk the US central bank's interest rate hikes will slow the economy considerably," Iyer said. On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share Sensex was trading 337.14 points or 0.64 per cent higher at 53,364.11, while the broader NSE Nifty advanced 84.00 points or 0.53 per cent to 15,883.10. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, slipped 0.07 per cent to 105.03. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.07 per cent to USD 116.34 per barrel. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers in the capital market on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 851.06 crore, as per exchange data. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/startups-like-unacademy-vedantu-blue-stone-caratlane-go-physical-from-digital-as-pandemic-boom-ends/articleshow/92564319.cms">Startups go physical from digital as pandemic boom ends</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/indian-credit-card-users-spend-40x-more-than-debit-card-users-online/articleshow/92543305.cms">Indian credit card users spend 40x more than debit card users online</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/india/news/uddhav-thackeray-the-accidental-chief-minister/articleshow/92559485.cms">Uddhav Thackeray: The accidental chief minister</a>

Rupee recovers from its record low, gains 13 paise to 78.90

<ul><li>In initial trading, the <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> also touched ₹81.51 against the American currency.</li><li>The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.35 percent to 110.81.</li><li>Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures surged 0.13 per cent to $ 93.49 per barrel.</li></ul> The rupee depreciated 4 paise to 81.66 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday amid high volatility as rising crude oil prices weighed on the local unit. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a strong note at ₹81.52 against the greenback, then pared the gains and fell to ₹81.66, registering a fall of 4 paise over its previous closing. In initial trading, the rupee also touched ₹81.51 against the American currency. On Tuesday, the rupee appreciated by 20 paise to end at ₹81.62 against the US dollar. The forex market was closed on Wednesday on account of Dussehra. According to Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at <keyword id="197560" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="reliance-securities" source="Orion">Reliance Securities</keyword>, the rupee opened stronger tracking a fall in the dollar over the past two sessions. Moreover, Asian and emerging market peers were also stronger this Thursday morning and lent support. However, stronger crude oil prices, hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and JP Morgan's decision to hold off the inclusion of Indian bonds into its global index weighed on the local unit, Iyer added. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.35 per cent to 110.81. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures surged 0.13 % to $93.49 per barrel. On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share <keyword id="53232" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="bse-sensex" source="Orion">BSE Sensex</keyword> was trading 357.3 points or 0.62 % higher at 58,422.77, while the broader NSE Nifty advanced 109.25 points or 0.63 per cent to 17,383.55. Foreign institutional investors were net buyers in the capital market on Tuesday as they purchased shares worth ₹1,344.63 crore, as per exchange data. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/big-emitters-not-acknowledging-climate-risks-carbon-tracker/articleshow/94672583.cms">Big emitters not acknowledging climate risks: Carbon Tracker</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/sensex-is-up-334-points-nifty-by-91-points-tracking-gains-from-asian-markets/articleshow/94672606.cms">Sensex is up 334 points, Nifty by 91 points tracking gains from Asian markets</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/india-incs-foreign-commercial-borrowings-rise-by-4-6-in-august/articleshow/94664946.cms">India Inc's foreign commercial borrowings rise by 4.6% in August</a>

Rupee falls 4 paise to 81.66 against US dollar in early trade

The <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> plunged 61 paise to decline below the 83-mark for the first time against the US <keyword id="35208" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar" source="Orion">dollar</keyword> on Wednesday amid unabated foreign capital outflows and a strong dollar in the overseas markets. Besides, rising crude prices in the international markets and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local currency, traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened strong at 82.32 but later pared gains to settle at an all-time low of 83.01 (provisional) against the American currency, down 61 paise over its previous close. In the previous session on Tuesday, the rupee slipped 10 paise to end at 82.40 against the dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, advanced 0.31 per cent to 112.48. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.82 per cent to <keyword id="54123" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="usd" source="Orion">USD</keyword> 90.77 per barrel. On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex gained 146.59 points or 0.25 per cent to end at 59,107.19, while the broader NSE Nifty advanced 25.30 points or 0.14 per cent to 17,512.25. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the capital markets as they offloaded shares worth Rs 153.40 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/ultratech-cements-profit-tumbles-42-yoy-to-756-crore-due-to-higher-power-raw-material-costs/articleshow/94964556.cms">UltraTech Cement’s profit tumbles 42% YoY to ₹756 crore due to higher power, raw material costs</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/maggi-maker-nestl-indias-net-profit-grows-8-3-to-668-crore-in-q2/articleshow/94960866.cms">Maggi maker Nestlé India’s net profit grows 8.3% to ₹668 crore in Q2</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/moonlighting-is-fine-as-long-as-it-is-unrelated-to-what-we-do-for-our-clients-says-lt-tech/articleshow/94958101.cms">Moonlighting is fine as long as it is unrelated to what we do for our clients, says L&amp;T Tech</a>

Rupee plunges 61 paise to dip below 83/USD mark for first time

<keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">Rupee</keyword> opened on a muted note and fell to an all-time low of 83.72 against the US dollar on Thursday, dragged down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and significant foreign fund outflows. Forex traders said the fall in the domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets, sparked by the government's decision to hike the <keyword id="22422932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-rate" source="keywords">tax rate</keyword> on <keyword id="20619608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-gains" source="keywords">capital gains</keyword>. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit was trading in a narrow range. It opened at an all-time low of 83.72 against the American currency, registering a fall of 1 paisa from its previous close. On Wednesday, the rupee depreciated 2 paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the US dollar. The government's decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains dampened market sentiment, exerting immense pressure on the rupee and the equity market. "Post-budget day, the benchmark Indian equity indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, dipped by approximately 0.3 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively, as foreign institutional investors withdrew a staggering USD 350 million from Indian stocks. "Adding to the turmoil, persistent high demand for dollars, driven by defence and oil payments, compounded the currency's woes," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 104.21, lower by 0.17 per cent. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.75 per cent to USD 81.10 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 425.14 points, or 0.53 per cent lower at 79,723.74 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 120.65 points, or 0.49 per cent, to 24,292.85 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 5,130.90 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee slips to all-time low of 83.72 against US dollar; Fall sparked by tax rate hike on capital gains, per traders

<ul><li>On 1 August, five of the six members of the <keyword id="30067" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI">RBI</keyword>’s monetary policy committee voted in favour of a second consecutive rate <keyword id="44033" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="hike">hike</keyword>. </li><li>The resulting repo rate, 6.5%, is the highest rate in two years, indicating the central bank’s desire to keep <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword> in check. </li><li>Domestic banks will pass on the higher rates to borrowers and depositors in the form of costlier loans, higher EMIs. </li></ul>To almost no one’s surprise, the monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the repo rate, the rate at which it lends money to banks, by 0.25 basis points to 6.5% on 1 August. The move came less than two months after it hiked rates to 6.25% at its last meeting in June. This was first time since October 2013 that the central bank had decided on consecutive rate hikes, indicating the need to keep inflation in check and prevent the further depreciation of the <keyword id="6355302" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rupee">rupee</keyword>. All about inflation The RBI’s big worry, as usual, is rising prices - both headline and core inflation have inched upwards since the June meeting. It expects the rate of inflation to rise to 4.8% in the second half of the current financial year and touch 5% by the first quarter of fiscal 2020. Urjit Patel, the governor of the central bank, pointed out the inflationary pressures of the central government’s <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indian-government-is-planning-a-price-support-scheme-for-paddy-that-it-cant-afford/articleshow/64841393.cms">minimum support price</a> (MSP) schemes. The MSP has been fixed at 150% of the cost of production of all kharif crops, and high price of fuel - both of which are leading to higher household costs. The idea behind the two rate hikes is to encourage saving and reduce the supply of the money circulating in the Indian economy, thereby moving the rate of inflation down to the central bank’s long-term target of 4%. In an election year, the central bank probably wishes to prevent overspending by the government. The RBI was not too worried about hurting domestic growth, given the solid monsoon, a rebound in private investment, a good earnings season for India Inc and the potential rise in rural consumption as a result of the MSP scheme. It kept its GDP forecast for the year unchanged at 7.4%. Higher EMIs, higher credit costs Domestic banks will pass on the higher rates to borrowers and depositors in the form of costlier loans and higher equated monthly installments (EMIs). The SBI hiked deposit rates a day before the meeting of the monetary policy committee. Earlier this year, in June, a number of banks, including ICICI Bank, SBI and Punjab National Bank, increased lending rates before the June rate hike. A major casualty of the double rate-hike will be the housing market, given the higher cost of mortgages and home loans. Hence, the real estate sector will remain sluggish as rate-conscious buyers steer clear. Another rate hike before year’s end? Two consecutive rate hikes usually point the commencement of a tightening cycle. There remains a high possibility that the RBI will hike rates again before the year is over if the 4% inflation goal isn’t met. The recent GST rate cut on a number of items could result in lower retail inflation, which will be countered by the upward effect of the MSP scheme on food inflation. The central bank decided to keep its policy stance “neutral”, however, likely in light of trade tension between the US and China. In the event of a trade war and an ensuing depression in global growth, the RBI will likely hold rates stable to encourage consumption.

Here’s why India’s central bank is hiking rates consecutively for the first time since 2013

The <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> depreciated 38 paise to 81.78 against the US <keyword id="35208" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar" source="Orion">dollar</keyword> in early trade on Monday, tracking a muted trend in domestic equities and risk-off sentiment among investors. Besides, surging crude prices in the international market impacted the domestic unit, traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local currency opened weak at 81.65 against the dollar, then lost further ground to quote at 81.78, registering a loss of 38 paise over its previous close. The rupee settled 33 paise higher at 81.40 against the dollar on Friday. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, slipped 0.04 per cent to 112.08. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, surged 2.77 per cent to USD 87.50 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 66.60 points or 0.12 per cent lower at 57,360.32, and the broader NSE Nifty fell 12.90 points or 0.08 per cent to 17,081.45. After infusing funds in the last two months, foreign investors turned sellers again in September, and pulled out Rs 7,600 crore from the Indian equity markets amid a hawkish stance by the US Fed and sharp depreciation in the rupee.

Rupee falls 38 paise to 81.78 against US dollar

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Thomson ReutersA man displays the new 2000 Indian rupee banknotes after withdrawing them from State Bank of India in Agartala</div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>India's central bank unexpectedly left rates unchanged Friday.</li><li>The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-inr">Indian rupee</a> fell to a record low following the announcement. </li><li>Watch the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-inr">Indian rupee</a> trade in real time here.</li></ul>India's central bank unexpectedly held rates steady at 6.5% on Friday sending the rupee to a record low. More than half of analysts surveyed by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-economy-rates/india-keeps-policy-rate-unchanged-rupee-tumbles-on-surprise-inaction-idUSKCN1MF1AA">Reuters</a> had forecast the Reserve Bank of India would raise its key interest rate. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-inr">rupee</a> sank to an all time low of 74.1250 against the dollar following the policy announcement. The central bank revised language from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening" and lowered its inflation projection, having increased rates at two meetings since June. It kept its inflation target at 4% percent in the medium term and slightly lowered its forecast for next year.Kunal Kundu, an economist at Societe Generale, said a lower-than-expected print of headline inflation seemed to sway the decision. Consumer prices fell below 4% for the first time this year in August, the national statistics office said last month. "Nevertheless, lowering the official inflation projection while changing the policy stance to a tightening bias does not tie up," Kundu said. Analysts expect the central bank to raise rates one more time this year. Both the central bank have kept a close eye on the rupee, which is the worst-performing Asian currency of 2018.Last month, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the falling rupee must be dealt with "immediately" and announced a plan to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/indian-rupee-nears-all-time-lows-even-as-government-scrambles-to-prop-it-up-2018-9-1027539984">lower the current account deficit</a>. The new measures include reducing imports, as well as relaxing rules for overseas borrowing and for banks to raise rupee-denominated overseas bonds.Also weighed down by a broader <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/emerging-market-sell-off-could-spread-to-us-stocks-credit-morgan-stanley-2018-8?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">emerging-market sell-off,</a> the rupee has shed more than 15% in value this year. <div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-inr">Markets Insider</a></div></div></div> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-caffeine-does-body-brain-2017-3">Here's what caffeine does to your body and brain</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

Indian rupee sinks to record low after central bank unexpectedly holds rates

Prospects of a Modi election victory have induced a dollar flood into Indian bonds and <keyword id="45369" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="equities">equities</keyword>. The rupee has strengthened to below Rs 60 per dollar. 
 
If the strong rupee was caused by an export boom, everyone would be delighted. In fact, it has been caused by hot money plunging into the speculative froth of a Modi victory. This sort of strong rupee torpedoes India’s export prospects without providing any sustainable gains. 
 Some investment banks see the rupee strengthening further to Rs 58 per dollar. Adam Gilmour of Citigroup says it could strengthen to Rs 40-45 per dollar if Modi wins handsomely. But this would be disastrous for India’s competitiveness and balance of payments. The RBI must send a clear signal to <keyword id="6358355" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="forex">forex</keyword> markets that it will keep the rupee competitive. It must mop up excessive inflows. The consequent increase in rupee money supply should be sterilised by equivalent RBI sales of gilts, checking any inflationary impact. 
 
Many ordinary Indians feel good about a strong rupee. But equating national prestige with a strong rupee is wrong. What matters is that India’s exports are competitive, and current account deficit under control. If this co-exists with a strong rupee, fine. But if this requires a weaker rupee, that’s fine too. The exchange rate is a means to an end, not an end in itself. 
 Last year, Prachi Mishra, <keyword id="192731" type="PERSON" weightage="40" keywordseo="Rohini-Malkani">Rohini Malkani</keyword> and others in the <keyword id="47209" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="Finance-Ministry">finance ministry</keyword> calculated that a reasonable exchange rate might be Rs 58-60 to the dollar. All such calculations are iffy, but many foreign analysts had a similar view. However, the continuing <keyword id="22195" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Inflation">inflation</keyword> differential between India and the world means that the same model will indicate a reasonable range of Rs 60-62 per dollar today. Inflation is falling but remains well above rates abroad, so a competitive exchange rate might be Rs 63-65 per dollar by the end of 2014. 
 
75% Gilt-y 
 
The composition of the recent dollar inflow is dismaying. Of the $8-billion inflow since January, no less than $6 billion is into gilts. Indian interest rates are sky-high by global standards, with short-term gilts yielding 8.5%. Last year, rupee depreciation made the high rupee yield illusory. 
 But today, foreigners get a high coupon plus currency appreciation, giving a fabulous total return of maybe 10%. No wonder they are flooding in. It’s wrong to <keyword id="25455" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="finance">finance</keyword> India’s current account deficit by borrowing short term at an effective dollar rate of 10%. The RBI must discourage debt inflows of less than two years’ duration. The <keyword id="37018" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="40" keywordseo="interest-rate">interest rate</keyword> for two-year gilts is just a fraction more than for three-month treasuries, but carries a clear exchange rate risk — the rupee will very probably depreciate in two years. Three-month inflows constitute risky hot money, which will flood out if the election results don’t meet expectations. Two-year inflows will be much less volatile. 
 
History has repeatedly shown India’s vulnerability to sudden stops of forex inflows. Such sudden stops can be triggered by global events even if there is no disaster in India itself. The best remedy is continuously rising productivity, making exports more competitive and imports less competitive, ending any significant current account deficit. 
 In less ideal conditions, safety can be improved in two ways. One, limit the current account deficit by letting the rupee depreciate when exports turn uncompetitive. Two, encourage relatively stable dollar inflows, and discourage relatively unstable ones. There are four sorts of forex inflows. The most stable, desirable sort is foreign direct investment (<keyword id="44528" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="FDI">FDI</keyword>). Foreign-owned factories and power stations cannot exit in a panic. 
 
No Running Away 
 The second most stable inflow is into equities. If foreign investors try to exit en masse in a panic, stock prices and the exchange rate plummet. Equity investors can exit only at a very steep loss, so many stay put. This was demonstrated in the Asian Financial Crisis and Great Recession. The third most stable — or second most unstable — inflow is into medium-or long-term rupee bonds. Here too, any mass exit will depress the price and exchange rate too. But bonds are far less volatile than <keyword id="6354298" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="stocks">stocks</keyword>, and so carry a much lower exit penalty. 
 
Red-Hot Greenbacks 
 
The fourth, worst sort of inflow is dollar-denominated debt, which on maturity is repaid in full without any exit penalty. Long-term dollar debt takes time to mature, and is not so hot. But short-term dollar debt matures very quickly and is the hottest-ofhot flows. Rupee-denominated short term debt is not quite so bad, since it carries some currency risks (which are, however, limited because of the short maturity). 
 
These facts should guide the strategy of the next government and of the RBI. Priority should be given to raising productivity and, thus, reducing the current account deficit. As for inflows, FDI is the best. Inflows into equities is also desirable. Dollardenominated debt should not be encouraged. And foreign investment in short-term debt, whether in rupees or dollars, must be strongly discouraged. Hot money must not be allowed to make exports uncompetitive.

You Searched For "rupee rate" and got 11 results

Rupee weighed down strong greenback, falls 27 paise to close at 82.05/USD

PTI

Rupee gains 57 paise to close at 81.78 against US dollar

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Rupee gains 6 paise against the dollar on heavy buying in equities

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Rupee recovers from its record low, gains 13 paise to 78.90

PTI

Rupee falls 4 paise to 81.66 against US dollar in early trade

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Rupee plunges 61 paise to dip below 83/USD mark for first time

PTI

Rupee slips to all-time low of 83.72 against US dollar; Fall sparked by tax rate hike on capital gains, per traders

PTI

Here’s why India’s central bank is hiking rates consecutively for the first time since 2013

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Rupee falls 38 paise to 81.78 against US dollar

PTI

Indian rupee sinks to record low after central bank unexpectedly holds rates

Gina Heeb

Short-Term Capital Inflows Boosting The Rupee Will Render Exports Uncompetitive

Economic Times

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