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Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of bank deposits in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialization of household savings in the country, or the rising preference of Indians towards mutual funds and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian equity markets through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by <keyword id="20250971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="franklin-templeton" source="keywords">Franklin Templeton</keyword>, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are <keyword id="4000333" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="household-deposits" source="Orion">household deposits</keyword> really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian <keyword id="20319599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="households" source="keywords">households</keyword> in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and savings account deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (<keyword id="19942037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-board-of-direct-taxes" source="keywords">Central Board of Direct Taxes</keyword>) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="securities-transaction-tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword> (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell equity mutual funds, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by equities can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in deposit growth we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next <keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="keywords">MPC</keyword> (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day.

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

The Reserve Bank on Friday announced the launch of a mobile app to enable <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword> to participate in government securities (<keyword id="21202837" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="G-Secs" source="keywords">G-Secs</keyword>) or <keyword id="20283766" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-bonds" source="keywords">government bonds</keyword> market. <keyword id="21202838" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi-retail-direct-scheme" source="keywords">RBI Retail Direct Scheme</keyword>, launched in November 2021, gives access to individual investors to maintain gilt accounts with the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> and invest in government securities. The Scheme enables investors to buy securities in primary auctions as well as buy/sell securities through the <keyword id="382785" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Negotiated-Dealing-System" source="Orion">Negotiated Dealing System</keyword> - <keyword id="21202839" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Order-Matching-system" source="Orion">Order Matching system</keyword> (NDS-OM) platform. "To further improve ease of access, a mobile application of the Retail Direct portal is being developed. The app will enable investors to buy and sell instruments on the go, at their convenience. The app will be available for use shortly," RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said, while announcing the first bi-monthly monetary policy for the current fiscal. The government is planning for gross market borrowing of Rs 14.13 lakh crore for 2024-25. Out of this Rs 7.5 lakh crore, or 53 per cent, is scheduled to be borrowed in the first half (H1). In a separate announcement, RBI permitted non-bank payment system operators to offer Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) wallets to encourage its wider use. Currently, CBDC pilots in the retail and wholesale segments are underway with more use-cases and more participating banks. "Continuing with this approach, it is proposed to make CBDC-Retail accessible to a broader segment of users in a sustained manner, by enabling non-bank payment system operators to offer CBDC wallets," he said. This is expected to enhance access and expand choices available to users apart from testing the resiliency of the CBDC platform to handle multi-channel transactions, he said, adding, necessary changes will be made to the system to facilitate this. In November 2022, the pilot of the wholesale CBDC, known as the Digital Rupee-Wholesale (e-W), was launched with the use case being limited to the settlement of secondary market transactions in government securities. In the following month, RBI rolled out a pilot in the retail version of the CBDC (e-R).

RBI to soon launch app to enable retail investors to participate in govt bonds

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

New Delhi [<keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>], August 14 (ANI): Retail inflation in India rose sharply in July to 7.44 per cent and in the process breached <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>'s 6 per cent upper tolerance target, largely due to a sharp spurt in vegetable, fruits, and pulses prices. The inflation index for rural and urban was 7.63 per cent and 7.20 per cent, respectively. In June too, the overall retail inflation too rose considerably to 4.81 per cent, largely due to a sharp spurt in vegetable prices. Back in May, the retail inflation was at 4.25 per cent, hitting a two-year low. It was at 4.7 per cent in April and 5.7 per cent the previous month. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation data released Monday, the provisional index number for vegetables rose from 181.1 in June to 250.1 in July. Vegetables have a 6.04 per cent weightage on the overall retail inflation. For fruits and pulses, they rose from 172 and 223.1 to 179.7 to 231.1, respectively. The rise in inflation could partly be attributed to the current spurt in tomato and other vegetable prices across India. The rise in tomato prices is reported across the country, and not just limited to a particular region or geography. In key cities, it rose to as high as Rs 150-200 per kg. Amid a sharp spurt in tomato prices across the country, the Central government had directed its agencies - NAFED and <keyword id="54737" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="nccf" source="Orion">NCCF</keyword> -- to immediately procure the staple vegetable from mandis in key growing states of <keyword id="37102" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="andhra-pradesh" source="Orion">Andhra Pradesh</keyword>, Karnataka, and Maharashtra. Notably, retail inflation (Consumer Price Index) in India peaked at 7.8 per cent in April 2022, driven by a reduction in food and core inflation. In some advanced countries, inflation had in fact touched a multi-decade high and even breached the 10 per cent mark. RBI's consistent monetary policy tightening since mid-2022 could be attributed to the substantial decline in inflation numbers in India. India's retail inflation was above RBI's 6 per cent target for three consecutive quarters and had managed to fall back to the RBI's comfort zone only in November 2022. Under the flexible inflation targeting framework, the RBI is deemed to have failed in managing price rises if the CPI-based inflation is outside the 2-6 per cent range for three quarters in a row. Barring the recent pauses, the RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points cumulatively since May 2022 in the fight against inflation. Raising interest rates is a monetary policy instrument that typically helps suppress demand in the economy, thereby helping the inflation rate decline. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India upwardly revised the country's retail inflation projections for 2023-24 at 5.4 per cent, against 5.1 per cent it projected in its previous monetary policy meeting in June. RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, as part of his remarks after the policy meeting, said assuming a normal monsoon, retail inflation is revised to 5.4 per cent, with Q2 at 6.2 per cent, Q3 at 5.7 per cent and Q4 at 5.2 per cent. Retail inflation for Q1 2024-25 is projected at 5.2 per cent. "The month of July has witnessed accentuation of food inflation, primarily on account of vegetables. The spike in tomato prices and further increase in prices of cereals and pulses have contributed to this. Consequently, a substantial increase in headline inflation would occur in the nearterm," said Das. He reiterated what he said after the June meeting - "Bringing headline inflation within the tolerance band is not enough; we need to remain firmly focused on aligning inflation to the target of 4.0 per cent." (ANI)

India's retail inflation breaches RBI's upper tolerance limit; vegetables, fruits key contributors

<ul><li><keyword id="122724" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-securities" source="Orion">Government securities</keyword> are considered among the safest investment options due to the sovereign guarantee attached to them. </li><li>Most brokers allow trading of existing <keyword id="6371629" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="g-secs" source="Orion">G-secs</keyword> on the secondary market through their platforms.</li><li>Investing in G-sec-focused mutual funds allows a diversified portfolio within Government securities and low-ticket investments. </li></ul>Government securities, commonly known as G-secs, are <keyword id="166233" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="debt-instruments" source="Orion">debt instruments</keyword> issued by the Government of India to raise capital. These securities serve as a way for the government to borrow money from the public or institutions. G-secs come with fixed <keyword id="6371181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="Orion">interest rates</keyword> and predetermined maturity dates. They are considered among the safest investment options due to the sovereign guarantee attached to them, ensuring repayment of the principal amount and interest upon maturity. The credit risk on G-secs is thus minimal. Government bonds also boast high liquidity and can be traded easily in the secondary market. This flexibility provides an opportunity to earn improved returns on the bonds and allows for exiting at any desired time before the maturity date as well. How G-secs work Investing in g-secs involves purchasing these bonds at face value, and the interest, also known as the coupon, is paid periodically, typically semi-annually or annually, until the maturity date. The interest rates on g-secs are influenced by various factors, including market demand, inflation, and the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>). Consequently, the prices of G-secs fluctuate inversely with the prevailing interest rates in the market. When interest rates rise, the value of existing G-secs falls, and vice versa. These securities are traded in the primary and secondary markets. In the primary market, they are directly issued by the government through auctions, while in the secondary market, they are bought and sold among investors. How to invest G-secs are available in various tenures, ranging from short-term (Treasury bills) to long-term (Government bonds). The Retail Direct Scheme by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rolled out in 2021 enables individual investors to directly invest in government securities without requiring intermediaries such as brokers or mutual funds. The NSE goBID platform allows retail investors to participate in auctions for new G-sec issuances through your broker. It offers a non-competitive bidding process, meaning you specify your desired amount, and if your bid is accepted, you'll get allotted securities at the cut-off price. Most brokers allow trading of existing G-secs on the secondary market through their platforms. This offers flexibility to choose specific securities and exit positions when needed. Steps to invest `Here are the steps to invest in G-secs. <ol><li>Log in to your brokerage account </li><li>Navigate to the bids section: Locate and click on the "Bids" tab or section within the platform.</li><li>Select government securities: Once in the Bids section, find and select the option for "Govt. securities."</li><li>Initiate the bid: Look for the option to "Place bid" and click on it.</li><li>Enter bid Amount: Input the specific amount you wish to bid for the government securities.</li><li>Finalise the bid: After entering the amount, confirm the bid by clicking on the "Place bid" button.</li></ol>Investing in G-secs through the mutual fund route One can also take the mutual funds route to invest in G-secs. “Investing in G-sec focused mutual funds allows a diversified portfolio within Government securities and low ticket investments,” says Marzban Irani, chief investment officer, fixed income, LIC Mutual Fund. This can be suitable for passive investors or those seeking exposure without actively managing individual bonds. “It is always easy for investors to buy subscription or redemption requests in a mutual fund, compared to looking out to buy or sell securities in the fixed income market. Also, one may buy and hold but in between prices can fluctuate. Many people may not understand the drivers of those price fluctuations,” says Pankaj Pathak, fund manager, fixed income, Quantum AMC. Interest rate risks G-secs do carry one particular risk, that of interest rate fluctuations in the broader market. When rates rise, existing G-Secs with lower rates lose value compared to newer securities offering higher rates. Conversely, falling rates increase demand for older G-Secs, potentially raising their value. Longer-term G-Secs are more prone to rate change risks than short-term ones. Investors holding G-Secs until maturity aren't affected by price fluctuations but can lose potential earnings if rates rise after purchase. “A sudden increase in interest rate can impact return. So one is advised to invest into G Secs only for long-term goals,” says Abhishek Kumar, founder and chief<a href="https://business.outlookindia.com/invest/investment"> </a>investment advisor at SahajMoney, a financial planning firm. Is this a good time to invest? Government securities (G-Secs) typically attract conservative investors seeking a steady income from their investments. Moreover, investors often include G-Secs in their portfolio's debt allocation, which comprises diverse assets like equities, fixed-income instruments, and safe havens such as gold. At present, we are at the peak of the interest rate hike cycle. Developed economies like the US are expecting rate cuts going ahead in 2024. On the domestic front, the core inflation seems to be under control. “The interest rates are holding steady and might even start going down from the second half of next year,” says Kumar. So, going forward, retail investors can expect to improve their returns on G Sec investments. Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

A case for investing in Government securities

<ul><li><keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">Food inflation</keyword> is expected to be elevated due to the heat wave’s impact on cereal and pulse prices.</li><li>Analysts mostly see shallow <keyword id="6752353" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="Orion">rate cuts</keyword> that might come in the third quarter of FY25, as the inflation picture emerges.</li><li>The Indian economy’s Goldilocks moment is continuing and might weigh on GDP growth projections of FY25 at 7%. </li></ul>The ongoing heatwave conditions, and projections of a harsher summer, are likely to impact India’s agricultural output, leading to rising food inflation. This, among others, is expected to weigh heavily on the rate-setting panel or monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting that will start today. “We estimate food inflation to remain elevated above 7.5% in the first half of 2024 on the back of high cereals and pulses (legumes) inflation on the back of an ongoing heatwave in the country. Altogether, we estimate headline (retail) inflation to remain above 5% in 1H 2024,” says a report by Goldman Sachs. Core inflation, however, has been easing, and LPG price cuts are also expected to add to the disinflation process, albeit modestly. Most analysts expect inflation to average around 4.5% for FY25 — and cool after a spike in September. ‘Slightly soften hawkish forward guidance’ The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) which intends to maintain retail inflation at around 4%, might go for possible interest rate cuts only in the third quarter of FY25, surmise analysts. “We believe the stance should continue to be withdrawal of accommodation. RBI might cut rates only in the third quarter of FY25, such rate cut cycle is likely to be shallow,” said a report by SBI Research. In the meantime, there is ample room for the central bank to hold rates. "We do not expect any change in the policy rate, but a probable explicit or implicit change in stance cannot be ruled out. RBI may acknowledge that core inflation is trending down,” Parijat Agrawal, head – fixed income at Union Mutual Fund, said on the April policy. Apart from softening core inflation, easing liquidity conditions are also expected to provide comfort to the central bank. Thanks to active interventions by the RBI, government spending over the last month has softened inter-bank rates and short-term borrowing rates for bank and non-bank entities. “Liquidity conditions have eased in the past few weeks, with ongoing balance of payments surpluses and pre-election spending likely to keep liquidity conditions in check,” says a report by Barclays. Goldman forecasts one 25 basis-point cut each in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. “We expect the RBI to take comfort from declining core inflation, slightly soften its hawkish forward guidance, but remain cautious given upside risks to food inflation from weather shocks, and repricing of the Fed funds rate easing path,” it added. Signs of slack in the economy The central bank ‘upgraded’ its GDP growth rate expectation for FY24 to 7.3%. It also expects FY25’s growth rate to average at 7%. The market is keenly looking forward to RBI’s commentary on growth projections. As of now, there has been a mixed growth picture. Every economic indicator comes with a rider attached, which Barclays calls ‘signs of slack’ in the economy. For example, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in Q3 FY24, from 1.3% in the previous quarter. While manageable CAD is good news, it also expands during high periods of growth. The government also projected its fiscal deficit to fall to 5.1% in FY25 as compared to 5.8% in FY24. These targets are to be achieved by moderation in government capex and lowering of expenditure. “The latter implies limited direct support to consumption demand from the budget, which, while positive for inflation, also means the fiscal impulse on growth has moderated compared with earlier years,” says Barclays. Economic indicators are also mixed. While cargo traffic, air passenger numbers, and toll collection are falling, vehicle sales are seeing double-digit growth in the last quarter of FY24. “High-frequency activity data remains strong, with our proprietary indices tracking a rebound in consumption growth at 7.9% yoy in Jan-March of 2024 (vs 3.5% in December quarter), but slower investment growth at 2.3% yoy (vs. 10.6% YoY in December quarter) as the government has front-loaded capex,” says Goldman Sachs. The Goldilocks moment of the Indian economy is raising expectations that the RBI might take a call based on the same. “Eventually, we think the RBI will have to consider the balance of risks between overtightening (given the 'not-too-hot-nor-too-cold' state of the economy) and maintaining monetary policy conditions for achieving reasonably good real GDP growth of at least 7%,” says Barclays.

With food inflation looming large, ‘shallow rate’ cuts expected only in Q3 FY25

<ul><li>Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das today announced that users will soon be able to deposit cash using <keyword id="6358921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="upi" source="Orion">UPI</keyword> at ATMs.</li><li>Users will also be able to make UPI payments via PPI wallets through third-party apps.</li><li>The governor-led MPC also proposed the launch of a dedicated mobile app for retail investors to access the G-sec market.</li></ul>Forgot to carry your debit card while visiting the ATM? Don’t worry, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) understands your pain. On Friday, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das announced that bank account holders will soon be able to deposit money at ATMs using UPI, or Unified Payments Interface. Earlier, in January, RBI had announced that it would allow users to withdraw cash from ATMs using UPI. At the moment, cash deposits at ATMs can be done via two methods – using debit cards and manually entering the savings account number. Das announced RBI’s latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, where the central bank left the key repo rate unchanged. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Enhancing UPI features" comment="subhead" text="Enhancing UPI features">Enhancing UPI features</cmsannotation> Thanks to UPI’s widespread use, RBI has been expanding its features to include various options from setting autopay instructions for bill payments to creating mandates for IPO applications and more. After the previous MPC meet in January, RBI governor announced that cash withdrawals would be made possible through UPI ATMs. “This measure will further enhance customer convenience and make the currency handling process at banks more efficient,” said Das. In addition to this, RBI also announced that it will allow the use of third-party UPI apps for making UPI payments via prepaid payment instrument (PPI) wallets, like Paytm and GooglePay. With today’s announcement, the central bank looks keen on slowly but steadily replacing debit cards with UPI. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/size-does-matter-debit-cards-for-large-payments-upi-for-smaller-ones/articleshow/109002682.cms">Recent reports suggest that</a>, while UPI usage is growing exponentially, people continue to use Debit Cards, especially for large payments. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="New app for G-sec market" comment="subhead" text="New app for G-sec market">New app for G-sec market</cmsannotation> RBI’s aim with this is to make it more convenient to use digital payments for small-value transactions. Lastly, the MPC also proposed the launch of a dedicated mobile app to access the Retail Direct portal. Das believes this will enhance convenience to retail investors and improve the reach of the government securities (G-sec) market. RBI launched the Retail Direct scheme in 2021 to make it possible for retail and individual investors to participate in the government securities market. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/markets/news/markets-trade-flat-after-rbi-mpc-leaves-repo-rate-unchanged-at-6-5/articleshow/109055645.cms">Status quo: Markets trade flat after RBI MPC leaves repo rate unchanged at 6.5%</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbis-mpc-keeps-rates-unchanged-to-be-actively-disinflationary/articleshow/109053104.cms">We want the elephant of inflation to walk back to the forest: Shaktikanta Das</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-add-nearly-5-million-subscribers-in-january-2024/articleshow/109040220.cms">Reliance Jio and Airtel add nearly 5 million subscribers in January 2024</a>

Not just withdraw, you can soon deposit cash using UPI at ATMs, promises RBI

Mumbai, <keyword id="21027898" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-real-estate-investment-trust" source="keywords">Indian Real Estate Investment Trust</keyword> (REIT) industry on Wednesday pitched for the entities to get access to direct bank lending and classification as equities. At present, such vehicles can issue bonds or borrow from non-bank lenders or mutual funds, but are prohibited to borrow from banks, said the <keyword id="21027897" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-reits-association" source="keywords">Indian REITs Association</keyword> (IRA), a newly formed umbrella body for the five-year-old sector, which comprises four listed entities. The body's Chairman and Embassy REIT's Chief Executive <keyword id="21027895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="arvind-maiya" source="keywords">Arvind Maiya</keyword> told reporters it is in touch with the RBI (<keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>) for allowing banks to lend to such vehicles. The real estate industry is asset-heavy and needs funds regularly to buy assets for which it should be allowed to borrow directly from banks, he added. Typically, banks have access to deposits which brings down the cost of funds, and hence, the cost of borrowing can become softer for a borrowing entity. <keyword id="21027894" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="alok-aggarwal" source="keywords">Alok Aggarwal</keyword>, the Managing Director and Chief Executive of Brookfield India Real Estate Trust, said, at present REITs are classified as a "hybrid" instrument which creates confusion in the minds of the investors. <keyword id="21027896" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="maiya" source="keywords">Maiya</keyword> said classification as equities will lead to passive money coming into REITs as the instrument gets included in indices. Other geographies like Singapore, which has inspired the Indian REIT regulations, as well as the US, treat the instrument as equity, he said, stressing that all the features of the instrument are similar to equity. An industry participant said the tax advantages which it gets courtesy of the hybrid status will continue even if it is classified as equity, while another hoped that it can also get gains from a taxation front courtesy of the Long Term Capital Gains (LTCG) which is applicable for equity. The IRA said there are lots of opportunities for the REITs sector to grow in the country, both from a supply side, where the demand for real estate is bound to keep growing and also on the demand for such instruments as Indians look for newer asset classes. <keyword id="20375329" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ramesh-nair" source="keywords">Ramesh Nair</keyword>, the Chief Executive of Mindspace REIT, said the <keyword id="20069427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-capability-centres" source="keywords">Global Capability Centres</keyword> (GCCs) of multinationals alone present a very handsome opportunity for the REITS story in the country. Citing the experience in the US, industry executives said there will be dedicated REITs for specific aspects like warehousing and residential properties. When asked about the lack of demand in the residential space till now -- three Indian REITs are in commercial space while the fourth is in retail -- an industry executive said the yields are very low at 2-3 per cent which prevents REITs' play. Nair said the sector wants to reach out to mutual funds' lobby grouping Amfi to learn and partner with them, given that the REIT's current priority is also to create awareness among the investors.

Real estate investment trust pitch for direct bank lending, classification as equity

The current retail inflationary pressures are expected to ease with fresh Kharif arrivals and a pass-through of lower input costs to consumers - also affirmed by <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>'s inflation projections for the next two quarters, the monthly economic review for October compiled by the department of economic affairs said. On inflation, the report by the department of economic affairs said domestic prices of some food items have gone up in the wake of the rise in international prices. <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s grain availability was impacted by the untimely heatwaves and deficiency of the southwest monsoon in the current year. However, export restrictions have ensured that the country's needs are fully met. The department of economic affairs in its report said India's food security has remained intact. Sharp rise in tractor sales in September and October also point towards improved sentiments and an expected increase in crop area sown. The report also indicated the UNDP Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) released in October 2022 showed 41.5 crore people exiting multidimensional poverty in India during the last 15 years. India's success in reducing poverty has also contributed to a decline in poverty in South Asia with South Asia no longer remaining the most multi-dimensionally poor region. The report also deals with a global outlook, inflation, food security, poverty, health and employment and <keyword id="6354507" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="world" source="Orion">World</keyword> and monetary policy. On domestic inflation, the report said consumer price index (CPI) inflation was largely driven by food inflation with major contributors being imported food items like oil and fats during the first five months of 2022. Since June 2022 however, domestic seasonal factors have increased the inflation of vegetables, cereals and their products, which have contributed to elevating food inflation. On the global outlook, the department of economic affairs said the prospect of a global economic slowdown had led to an outflow of portfolio investments from most countries into safe-haven US treasuries. This, combined with higher policy rates deployed by the <keyword id="6355253" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="federal-reserve" source="Orion">Federal Reserve</keyword> to counter inflation, has significantly strengthened the US dollar vis-a-vis other currencies. According to the report, the depreciation of most currencies has also led to a global drawdown of foreign exchange reserves to protect their values and prevent volatility in the foreign exchange market. On food security, the report said global food security has deteriorated and India may turn out to be an outlier with proactive and pre-emptive government interventions. 2022 brought to the forefront not only the issues of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks but also the vulnerability and interconnectedness of the global food system to shocks. The geopolitical conflict and climatic events have moved the focus to the issues of fragility and over-dependence on a few countries or regions for global food security. The report said, "Russia and Ukraine are among the most important producers of essential agricultural commodities, including wheat, maize, sunflower seeds and inputs like fertilisers. Together with other countries bordering the <keyword id="391209" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="black-sea" source="Orion">Black Sea</keyword>, they constitute the world's breadbasket." The Black Sea serves as a critical supply and transit hub to move food commodities from these countries to the rest of the world. As the conflict choked the hub, the movement of food items from these countries to the rest of the world got affected, threatening people's livelihoods directly/indirectly connected with the food business in the Black Sea region. Rising economic activity has led to a decline in the unemployment rate, the department of economic affairs wrote in the report. With the recovery in economic activities across sectors, the overall employment situation has also improved, overcoming the impact of the pandemic. It added that the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) shows the urban unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above declining from 12.6 per cent in the quarter ending June 2021 to 7.6 per cent one year later (quarter ending June 2022). This is accompanied by an improvement in the labour force participation rate (LFPR) as well, reflecting that by the time the current year was one-quarter over, the economy had come out of the grip of the Covid-19-induced slowdown, according to the monthly review. In a world where monetary tightening has weakened growth prospects, the finance ministry said India appears well-placed to grow at a moderately brisk rate in the coming years on account of the priority it accorded macroeconomic stability. It added the financial system stress in the second decade of the millennium, a consequence of the lending boom witnessed in the first decade-plus, is now behind us. It also added that private sector financial and non-financial balance sheets are healthy and incipient signs of a new personal sector capital formation cycle are visible. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rupee-gains-16-paise-to-81-54-against-us-dollar/articleshow/95758455.cms">Rupee gains 16 paise to 81.54 against US dollar</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/delhi-hc-grants-bail-to-yes-bank-co-founder-rana-kapoor-in-rs-466-51-cr-money-laundering-case/articleshow/95760025.cms">Delhi HC grants bail to Yes Bank co-founder Rana Kapoor in Rs 466.51 cr money laundering case</a>

Retail inflationary pressures expected to ease with fresh Kharif arrivals: Finance Ministry

The <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> has come substantially off its all-time low. Currently, it is trading around 81.64-81.70 against the US dollar as against its record low of 83 it breached in mid-October, primarily due to the strength in the US Dollar Index. Where is the Rupee headed now? ICICI Direct, which is part of ICICI Securities, expects the Rupee to appreciate towards 80 levels by the end of this fiscal year 2022-23 ending March. "We won't be surprised even if it breaks the major support level of 80 and appreciates further till 79.00 as well. We believe, the rupee may face a strong resistance near 83.50," Raj Deepak Singh, Analyst - F&amp;O, Currency and Commodity at ICICI Direct told in response to an email questionnaire. Further, on being asked whether the worst is over for the rupee, Singh said it looks like the circumstances were getting milder and may "turn the tables" soon for the Indian currency. "Softening of crude oil prices may be supportive for the domestic currency as it will reduce the import bills. Oil prices may remain in the range of USD 65-USD 90 per barrel even if OPEC+ continues with its production cut as demand concerns have taken the front seat," Singh said, adding that he believes India is in a much better place compared to its peers in terms of Inflation dynamics. Recent consumer price index data showed that inflation eased to 6.77 per cent from the five-month high of 7.41 per cent in September. Taking cues from declining inflation print, the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>, Singh said, may consider moderating the pace of its monetary policy tightening. "In addition to this pressure on other major central banks to keep raising interest rates took off after US Fed signalled a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. Moderation in the pace of monetary tightening is the need of the hour," Singh added. The <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> had already hiked the key policy rate by 190 basis points in four tranches since May to 5.9 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation that has stayed above the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6 per cent. Also, the return of foreign portfolio investors into Indian stock markets has been quite positive for the Rupee. Foreign portfolio investors infused funds worth around Rs 35,000 crore in Indian stock markets in the month of November and became net buyers again, data from National Securities Depository showed. The latest inflow of funds supported Indian stock indices -- <keyword id="6484188" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="sensex" source="Orion">Sensex</keyword> and <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword> - too, which are trading at their lifetime highs. Further, on the argument that the rupee is not depreciating but it is the US dollar, which is strengthening, he said: " If we see the current scenario, then the dollar has started losing its steam." "(US Fed) Meeting minutes also revealed that some of the officials were more anxious about the possibility of overdoing the increases. Dollar Index will face a strong resistance near 113 levels and may slip further till 102/100 levels in the coming months," Singh said. Currently, the US Dollar Index is hovering at around 106-107. The US Dollar Index is an index of the value of the dollar relative to a basket of other foreign currencies. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/indian-markets-open-tad-higher-ahead-of-gdp-data-zomato-sbi-ndtv-britannia-industries-among-stocks-to-watch/articleshow/95872706.cms">Indian markets open tad higher ahead of GDP data -- Zomato, SBI, NDTV, Britannia Industries among stocks to watch</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rupee-gains-17-paise-to-81-55-against-us-dollar/articleshow/95874184.cms">Rupee gains 17 paise to 81.55 against US dollar</a>

Worst largely over for Rupee, may appreciate towards 80/USD by end of FY23: ICICI Direct

India allows small retail investors to directly lend to the government

<ul><li>The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (<keyword id="6369693" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="mpc" source="Orion">MPC</keyword>) is likely to pause rate hikes when it meets later this week, as per economists. </li><li>The broad consensus is that a prolonged pause on rates may be seen till the end of 2023. </li><li>Economists say that India is in a ‘goldilocks’ situation thanks to strong macroeconomic data and cooler inflation. </li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could/should decide to pause interest rate hikes when it meets later this week, as per eminent economists. The consensus on the street is that the <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> Governor Shaktikanta Das-led panel will keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% thanks to cooler inflation. The primary reason for this belief is that the retail inflation (based on consumer price index, or CPI), came in significantly lower at 4.7% in April this year, down from 5.66% in March. This is comfortably below the central bank’s upper tolerance limit of 6%. In addition to cooler inflation, uncertainty around the trends in global commodity prices and growth could push the MPC to maintain its ‘wait and watch’ approach for the time being. The crucial monsoon season beginning this month and the impact of a potential El Niño will also figure in the MPC’s decision-making process. “We expect the stance to be maintained this month as the MPC will prefer to stay on wait-and-watch mode to gauge the fallout of weather conditions on the price trend before considering a pivot to easing. Supportive recovery prospects also lower the urgency for a quick turn in the policy direction,” said Radhika Rao, executive director and senior economist, DBS Group. The sticky core inflation finally fell below the 6% mark for the first time in 19 months in April to 5.2%. RBI governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> has underlined his concerns about sticky core inflation for a long time now, so this fall is much needed. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Prolonged pause" comment="subhead" text="Prolonged pause">Prolonged pause</cmsannotation> The broad consensus amongst economists is that the MPC will maintain its rate pause stance for the second consecutive time, after breaking away with the US Fed’s FOMC and keeping the<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbis-monetary-policy-committee-keeps-repo-rate-unchanged-at-6-5/articleshow/99284354.cms"> rates unchanged in its April meeting</a>. “Considering the prevailing ambiguity surrounding the future path of the Federal Reserve's rates in the coming months, our perspective leads us to anticipate a dovish message from the MPC,” said Deepak Agrawal, chief investment officer, debt, Kotak Mahindra AMC. Agrawal added that the focus is now on whether the MPC will signal a pivot in its monetary policy or continue with its current stance of withdrawal of accommodation. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The long-pause" comment="subhead" text="The long-pause">The long-pause</cmsannotation> With that said, there is a consensus amongst economists that we could be in for a prolonged pause, likely extending to the end of 2023. “We maintain our baseline view that the RBI will likely keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% in the June 8 policy meeting. We expect the RBI to remain on hold till the end of the year,” said the analysts at Goldman Sachs. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Stronger growth, cooler inflation" comment="subhead" text="Stronger growth, cooler inflation">Stronger growth, cooler inflation</cmsannotation> India’s GDP growth sprung a ‘pleasant surprise’ in Q4, coming in at 6.1% while analysts had forecast a growth of just 5%. In FY23, too, the GDP numbers at 7.2% were ahead of even the government’s estimates of 7%. Goldman Sachs analysts say that the inflation print in Q1 could be around 4.6%, as against RBI’s estimates of 5.1%. With April print coming in at 4.7%, there is further room for decline in May and June prints. Apart from this, most economic indicators across agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors are holding up, according to economists. According to the economists at SBI Research, we could see an upward revision in GDP growth forecasts while inflation estimates are expected to be downgraded in the June MPC meeting. “Frontloaded rate action by RBI has resulted in frontloading inflation trajectory. Inflation data till October would be decisively below 5%,” SBI Research said. Economists say that India is in a ‘goldilocks’ situation thanks to robust macroeconomic activity and cooling inflation. While a rate pause is highly certain, any hints of a pivot in monetary policy will be closely watched. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/wedding-season-drives-hero-motocorp-and-bajaj-auto-sales-in-may/articleshow/100700290.cms">Wedding bells drive two-wheeler sales in May, passenger vehicles cruise on SUVs</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/indias-gdp-forecast-raised-but-el-nino-export-contraction-threats-hover/articleshow/100693955.cms">India’s GDP forecast raised but El Nino, export contraction threats hover</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/foreign-institutional-investors-pump-27856-crore-in-indian-equities-in-may/articleshow/100693791.cms">Dalal Street sees 27-month high inflows from FIIs in May</a>

You Searched For "retail direct rbi" and got 13 results

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Ira Alok Puranik

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

Ira Alok Puranik

RBI to soon launch app to enable retail investors to participate in govt bonds

PTI

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Ira Alok Puranik

India's retail inflation breaches RBI's upper tolerance limit; vegetables, fruits key contributors

ANI

A case for investing in Government securities

Anagh Pal

With food inflation looming large, ‘shallow rate’ cuts expected only in Q3 FY25

Katya Naidu

Not just withdraw, you can soon deposit cash using UPI at ATMs, promises RBI

Sourabh Jain

Real estate investment trust pitch for direct bank lending, classification as equity

PTI

Retail inflationary pressures expected to ease with fresh Kharif arrivals: Finance Ministry

ANI

Worst largely over for Rupee, may appreciate towards 80/USD by end of FY23: ICICI Direct

ANI

India allows small retail investors to directly lend to the government

Business Insider India

RBI monetary policy: MPC likely to keep the pause-button pressed

Rounak Jain

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