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The residential market shows a positive outlook, with 51% of stakeholders predicting higher sales over the next six months. However, a notable 24% expect stability, while 25% predict a potential decrease, reflecting a balanced yet cautious sentiment, as per a recent <keyword id="19895043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Knight-Frank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Knight Frank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Knight Frank">Knight Frank</keyword> report. The outlook for residential launches is also positive, with 61% expecting an increase, suggesting continued demand. A more tempered view is held by 20% of respondents who expect stability, and 19% foresee a decrease in launches. The Indian <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword> continues to reflect a positive outlook for the near future, though with a more cautious approach. In terms of pricing, 63% of stakeholders expect a rise, but 36% anticipate stable prices, and a very small minority predict a decline. G Hari Babu, National President, National Real Estate Development Council (<keyword id="20429653" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="naredco" source="keywords">NAREDCO</keyword>), said, "The residential and office markets continue to show notable activity, signaling ongoing growth and opportunity. Developers and other key stakeholders, including banks and financial institutions, are maintaining a positive outlook." He added, "This suggests that while there may be short-term challenges, the sector is well-positioned to adapt and thrive. The continued optimism and activity in the market highlight the sector's ability to sustain its momentum and drive forward, amidst changing conditions." The <keyword id="22822547" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="office-leasing-market" source="keywords">office leasing market</keyword> shows signs of strong recovery, with 63% of respondents predicting an increase in leasing activity, driven by positive business sentiments and <keyword id="21313740" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-revival" source="keywords">economic revival</keyword>. However, 24% expect stability, and 13% foresee a decline. New office supply also remains a point of interest, with 47% expecting an increase, while 29% anticipate stability, and 24% forecast a decrease. Furthermore, 67% of stakeholders expect office rents to rise, signaling confidence in the market's ongoing growth, even as 27% anticipate stable rents and 7% expect a decrease. The <keyword id="20635920" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="future-sentiment-score" source="keywords">Future Sentiment Score</keyword>, which measures stakeholders' outlook over the next six months, saw adjustments across various regions. The North Zone score slightly decreased from 65 in Q1 2024 to 63 in Q2 2024, though it remains firmly optimistic. The South Zone witnessed a more significant drop from 76 to 65, signaling a moderated outlook. In the East Zone, the score fell from 77 to 65, largely influenced by the discontinuation of the 2% stamp duty cut. The West Zone also saw moderation, with the score dipping from 73 to 66, though it too, remains optimistic. The overall Developer Future Sentiment score decreased from 72 to 61, reflecting a more guarded approach. Developers, while cautious, continue to remain optimistic due to strong sales since early 2023. On the other hand, the Non-Developer Future Sentiment core, which includes financial institutions and PE funds, also moderated from 73 to 68. This shift indicates stakeholders' careful consideration of macroeconomic concerns. Optimism in India's broader economic scenario remains strong, with 59% of respondents expecting an improvement, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience. However, 24% foresee stability, and 17% predict a decline, underscoring global economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, 51% of respondents anticipate increased funding availability for real estate investments, reflecting continued confidence in the financial sector's support for the real estate market. Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director of Knight Frank India Pvt Ltd, noted, "As we transition through 2024, a host of factors are playing out globally. The global economic landscape shows resilience despite ongoing challenges. Inflation rates are gradually aligning with central bank targets, enabling a more supportive monetary policy. India, benefiting from stable post-election conditions, remains a strong growth beacon." He added, "Domestic consumption is robust, supported by consumer loans, though there are some signs of growth moderation. Food inflationary pressures persist, but are converging overall towards price stability targets. With a projected GDP growth rate of 7.2% for FY 2025, India's outlook remains positive. An effective monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India has helped sustain growth with price stability, positioning India as one of the fastest-growing large economies globally." The Current Sentiment score, which reflects stakeholders' view of the market compared to six months ago, moderated from a decadal high of 72 in Q1 2024 to 65 in Q2 2024. This suggests a more measured outlook as stakeholders navigate evolving global economic conditions. Despite the dip, the score remains indicative of optimism. Looking forward, the Future Sentiment index also adjusted from 73 in Q1 2024 to 65 in Q2 2024, signaling a positive yet more conservative outlook for the near term. While macroeconomic uncertainties may dampen enthusiasm, stakeholders continue to show confidence in the sector's resilience and adaptability.

Despite budget provisions, residential housing market will see sales growth, notes recent report by Knight Frank

<ul><li>India climbed 18 spots up to 14th rank in Knight Frank’s global house price index in Q3.</li><li>Globally, <keyword id="112918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="home-prices" source="Orion">home prices</keyword> across the 56 markets grew at an average of 3.5% YoY.</li><li>Home prices in micro markets of tech hubs in India grew in double digits over three years. </li></ul>India climbed 18 spots up to 14th rank in Knight Frank’s global house price index in the third quarter of 2023. Home prices in the country increased 5.9% year-on-year, resulting in a significant upward momentum. Globally, home prices across the 56 markets covered by the Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index grew at an average of 3.5% YoY in September 2023. In the previous quarter, global home prices moved up by 2.2%. As per Knight Frank, the growth in India’s residential market, despite the challenges of higher home loan rates as well as threats of inflation, is due to its stable economic growth. During the pandemic, central and state governments provided sops that triggered the market. "In light of an increased interest cost environment stemming from heightened inflation levels, the robust domestic economic fundamentals, and the escalating aspirational attributes of residential real estate, are driving heightened demand among homebuyers in prominent residential markets within the country,” said <keyword id="1417134" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shishir-baijal" source="Orion">Shishir Baijal</keyword>, CMD of Knight Frank India. A few micro markets in India, especially tech hubs in Hyderabad, Bangalore and Pune, saw sharp prices increase. The price rises in these markets are anywhere between 28-33% in three years, said a report by Anarock. “The upsurge in urbanisation is providing additional momentum to infrastructure development, paving the way for emerging residential hubs in the urban centres of India," said Baijal. In spite of price rises, the Indian housing market has been robust. By the end of the third quarter of 2023, as many as 3.49 lakh units were sold in the top 7 cities, against 3.65 lakh units in 2022. Concurrently, the overall sales value of sold housing inventory also inched up to ₹3.48 lakh crore. In the first nine months of 2023, the total residential property sales value is already 7% higher than all of 2022. “Property prices remained stagnant or experienced a decline for 5-6 years starting from 2013. During this period, the demand was notably low. However, post-Covid, we observed a substantial revival in demand, surpassing the previous highs,” said Prashant Rao, MD of Poulomi Estates. Several factors contributed to the rise in property prices, including pent-up demand, a desire to upgrade, a willingness to spend more for better and modern amenities. Additionally, improvements in the economic scenario and infrastructure development led to an increase in property prices. While property prices surged significantly across the country, Hyderabad consistently outpaced other metros year-on-year, experiencing the highest price rise due to an influx of corporates relocating their base to the city. This trend is expected to persist. Turkey leads the way in global price rises Turkey held the top spot in the rankings since Q1 of 2020. It’s once again the strongest growth of 89.2% on a year on year basis. The south-eastern corner of Europe dominates the top five spots of rankings, with Greece (14%), Croatia (13.7%) and North Macedonia (11%). Japan is the standout performer in the Asia-Pacific region, with 6.3% annual growth, followed by India with 5.9% annual growth. “The resilience of global house prices is surprising in light of rising costs for mortgage borrowers, however strong savings, above inflation pay settlements and low supply of stock for sale are all acting as market supports. The big issue for housing markets in 2024 will remain low market liquidity, with sales volumes down by up to a quarter compared to their recent peaks- only a shift to lower interest rates will lift sales activity,” said Liam Bailey, global head of research, Knight Frank.

India now the 14th priciest residential real estate market

Earlier today, RBIs MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to leave the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5%, while changing the policy stance toward neutral. The aim, as <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> maintained, was to strike a balance between taming domestic <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> and maintaining target growth. A neutral stance gives the RBI the flexibility to adjust <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> based on the direction of inflation, as opposed to its previous stand of withdrawing accommodation, which eliminates any possibility of rate cuts. While a change of stance doesn’t necessarily mean a cut should follow, most experts view this as a prelude to a possible rate cut in December this year, or even February next year. Says Deepak Ramaraju, Senior Fund Manager, Shriram AMC, "The RBI stance has changed to neutral, indicating that its primary focus is to balance growth and inflation. Growth has been resilient and given the short-term pressure on inflation, RBI may continue to hold interest rates unchanged in Q3 FY 2025. Based on inflation moderating below 4.5% and course of geo-political concerns, the RBI may undertake a rate cut decision in Q4 FY 2025". So, what does this mean for your investments? How will this decision impact your existing funds? We take a look. <h2>Good time to invest in high-yield deposits</h2>This is a good time to invest in high-yield <keyword id="19975805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-deposits" source="keywords">fixed deposits</keyword> and long-term bonds. That's because with rate cuts imminent in the upcoming quarters, you'd be able to lock-in your funds with the prevailing, relatively higher interest rate right now. As for the yellow metal or gold, it is generally considered a safe haven asset during turbulent market times. That's why you should consider making it a part of your investments, or increasing its weightage in your overall portfolio, depending on your needs. Vijay Kuppa, CEO, InCred Money highlights that with deposit rates at elevated levels, one has an ideal opportunity for locking in high-yield fixed deposits."At the same time, high borrowing costs also make a compelling case for increasing debt allocations in investment portfolios, which offer a buffer against potential equity market corrections, which might occur due to <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword>", he continues. With the chronic crisis in Middle-East flaring up again, as Israel looks to target Lebanon and Iran, you can expect some volatility and downturns in the <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword>, both in India and globally, in the times to come. Over the last 5 days, Sensex has dipped by over 1,900 points, or about 2.38%, and Nifty has also gone down by 2.23%. With this set to continue for some time, you can reconsider and evaluate your investments in debt. Mahendra Kumar Jajoo, CIO – Fixed Income, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) explains that the market is confident of a rate cut in the times to come, and that the <keyword id="20066775" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-market" source="keywords">bond market</keyword> has already started pricing in the same. "We have already seen some of this already, with 10Y GOI yields at around 6.75%, having already eased significantly in last few months. So, if investors wait for rate cut to invest, it may be too late for them. Also, with corporate credit picking up, investing in corporate bond funds for a period of 3-5 years can also serve the investor well. Investors having a long term investment horizon and appropriate risk appetite can also invest in gilt funds", he continues. <h2>Dont exit the markets yet </h2>Though short-term biases of FII may continue towards Chinese markets keeping pressure on the equity markets, the resilient domestic flows can defy deep corrections in the equity markets despite high valuations. The markets may trend positive with subsequent rate cuts by the US Fed later this year. Hence, it wont be advisable to completely exit the equity markets during these times, notes Avnish Jain, Head - Fixed Income, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund Jain advises to take a buy on dips approach towards the stock markets i.e. adding quality stocks to your portfolio during times of market downturn. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities says that the current market texture is volatile, hence level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders. "For the bulls now, 25,050/81,700 would be the key level to watch out. Above the same market could retest the level of 25,200-25,225/82,000-82,300. On the flip side, 24,900/81,200 would be the key support zone for the traders. Below the same, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below the same, market could slip till 24,800-24,780/81,000-80,700", explains Chouhan. <h2>Time to buy a home? Maybe! </h2>No rate cut can spell some good news for homebuyers who are looking to get their hands on real estate during the festive season. Even as home loan rates remain steady as of now, homebuyers may have to wait until December or beyond to get any tangible relief in their home loan EMIs. Vimal Nadar, Head of Research, Colliers India explains that a change in stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral” indicates its clear direction for a possible reduction in interest rates in the foreseeable future. This ongoing stability in repo rate should provide a significant thrust to residential real estate during these festive months as home loan interest rates are likely to remain steady. "Typically, Q4, marked by higher inclination of homebuyers to wrap-up property purchases during the auspicious period combined with instantaneous liquidity benefit aided by developers offering attractive discounts, has historically provided the final push to housing sales across the major markets in the country", he added.

RBI leaves repo rate unchanged. What does this mean for you?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Housing shortages and affordability problems are especially acute in America's swing states.</li><li>Arizona's population is surging and Pennsylvania's is shrinking; neither can build enough homes.</li></ul>Rising home prices and rents are weighing on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rent-housing-affordability-swing-state-voters-apartments-presidential-race-redfin-2024-9">voters' minds</a> this election season.Renters and homeowners in the handful of swing states that will likely determine the US presidential election — which include Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada — have been disproportionately hit by rising housing costs, caused by decades of underbuilding, a surge in new residents, high construction costs, and red tape.Since 2017, "in 6 of the 7 states, home prices have risen faster than the national average, and the national average is already quite high," Alex Horowitz, director of Pew's Housing Policy Project, told Business Insider, citing data from Zillow and Apartment List. "In all 7 states, rent growth has been higher than the national average."Two swing states — Arizona and Pennsylvania — exemplify in their own ways how housing markets across the country have failed to address the key issue they face: too few homes.In Arizona, sprawling subdivisions can only sprawl so far, and years of population growth have outstripped supply. While Pennsylvania's population shrank in recent years, it's still struggling to dig itself out of a construction worker shortage after years of underbuilding.<h2 id="1a859852-557b-4304-892a-c09040f80a6d">Zoning restricts housing for Arizona's population boom</h2>For years, Arizona has been among the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newsweek.com/population-map-reveals-fastest-growing-us-states-this-century-1904724">fastest-growing</a> states in the country. Sprawling subdivisions helped accommodate the growing population and were enough to keep housing costs relatively low through the early 2010s.The pandemic supercharged pressure on the housing market. Since 2020, Arizona has welcomed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/AZ/PST045223">hundreds of thousands of new residents</a>. As demand spiked, snarled supply chains helped inflate construction costs. Since January 2020, home prices in Arizona have risen by 55%, compared to a national average of 45%, while rents have jumped 27%, compared to a national average of 22%, Horowitz said.<div type="image" title="A worker operates machinery during construction at a housing development in the Phoenix suburbs of Queen Creek, one of the fastest-growing communities in Arizona." height="832" width="1280" msid="114584579" hostid="261" sizebytes="114024"></div>Housing experts blame some of Arizona's home shortage on the restrictive zoning laws in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/sites/default/files/exclusionary_zoning_legal_barrier_to_affordable_housing.pdf">many of its cities and suburbs</a>, which tend to allow only large-lot, detached single-family homes. These homes are generally more expensive than denser housing and require far more land."The obvious land that's proximate to job centers is scarcer and scarcer after we've had 20 or 30 years of significant home building" in Arizona, Ben Metcalf, managing director of the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley, told Business Insider.At the same time, the state is running out of water to support its new homes and residents. State officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/climate/arizona-phoenix-permits-housing-water.html">announced</a> last year that Arizona doesn't have enough groundwater to support all the future homes that have been approved for building in the Phoenix area.<h2 id="807b5340-f3a6-4d5d-a378-25a3d54b550f">Pennsylvania is up against construction worker shortages amid a shrinking population</h2>Two thousand miles away, in Pennsylvania, voters are also facing a housing shortage. Home prices have risen 39% since January 2020, Horowitz noted, even though the state's population is shrinking. Pennsylvania has lost <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pennlive.com/news/2024/03/amid-pockets-of-growth-pennsylvania-population-declines-worsen.html">an estimated 41,000 people</a> since 2020.Like many other states, Pennsylvania has underbuilt housing since the 2008 financial crisis, which tanked the housing market. In recent years, it's struggled with issues that plague the rest of the country, including elevated building material costs and high interest rates that make capital more expensive.But it's also dealing with a particularly severe construction worker shortage. Bureau of Labor Statistics data <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PACONS">shows</a> that after growing steadily during the 2010s, the total number of construction employees in Pennsylvania has plateaued since bouncing back after the pandemic recession, while construction jobs continue to boom in the nation as a whole.Horowitz noted that Pennsylvania ranked 48th out of the 50 states for homes permitted from 2017 to 2023."The aging workforce is a very big problem in residential construction in a place like Pennsylvania," Metcalf said, adding that restrictive federal immigration policies have limited the construction workforce, which is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://qz.com/immigrants-make-up-more-of-the-us-construction-labor-fo-1851118320">disproportionately made up of immigrants</a>.Horowitz noted that, like in Arizona, restrictive zoning policies are also preventing the construction of denser, cheaper housing in the state's suburban and exurban communities.Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro directed his administration in September to develop a statewide housing action plan. "While Governor Shapiro has made real progress in his first two years, he knows more needs to be done to fix the housing shortage and cut costs for Pennsylvanians," the administration spokesperson said.<h2 id="34ab4d96-8ac9-4d17-ba48-b2df8f02ca74">Housing policy on the campaign trail</h2>Swing-state voters list <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/">the economy</a> as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-harris-swing-state-poll-october-2024-c3ca9414">their top issue</a> in this election. But "when you drill down, it is about affording to live and pay their rent and pay their mortgages," Tucson Mayor Regina Romero told Business Insider. "Affordable opportunities help families stop worrying about where they're going to live next or sleep next and start worrying about how they can thrive in our economy."Housing affordability has become such an acute problem that Vice President Kamala Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">has promised to</a> build 3 million new homes over her first term, send $25,000 in downpayment assistance to first-time homebuyers, and spend billions on housing innovation.Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-housing-crisis-policy-rising-home-prices-apartment-rents-2024-6">has said</a> he'll bring housing costs down by cutting interest rates — though the Federal Reserve, which controls rates, operates independently of the government. He's also promised to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">deport millions of immigrants</a> to free up housing and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-freedom-cities-build-housing-conservatives-scoff-at-leftist-plan-2023-3">open up federal land</a> for home construction.To be sure, not all Americans are being adversely impacted by rising rents and home prices. Many homeowners who locked in relatively low mortgage rates years ago have watched their home equity soar as prices have skyrocketed.Renters are almost twice as likely as homeowners to say that housing affordability is a top-three issue in deciding who to vote for in this election, a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/renters-vs-homeowners-housing-affordability-election/">Redfin survey found</a>. Almost a quarter of potential first-time homebuyers say they're waiting until after the election to buy a home, with many interested in Harris' downpayment support, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/homebuying-delay-election-survey-2024/">Redfin also reported</a>.Noah Sheidlower contributed reporting.

2 swing states show why the US is struggling to build enough houses

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has pledged to lead a mass deportation campaign once elected.</li><li>That would create a major labor crunch for homebuilders, driving wages and costs higher.</li></ul>Donald Trump's vow to crack down on immigration doesn't bode well for priced-out homebuyers.The Republican presidential candidate has promised to lead the largest deportation campaign in US history if reelected. By one estimate, that could involve deporting up to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">1.2 million</a> people, though as many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trump-vs-harris-immigration-future-policy-proposals#_ftn1">11 million undocumented residents</a> live in the country.While there's room to debate the plan's feasibility, what's certain is that a sudden drain of the immigrant workforce could significantly hinder construction in the US, igniting deeper unaffordability for home market buyers.<h3 id="a76ec574-ba23-4a94-92de-608c0047e53f">A critical homebuilder workforce</h3>"If we did see mass deportations, I do think it would have a chilling effect on the labor market," Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, told Business Insider.He said immigrants are a critical component of the industry, as they help relieve a serious shortage of skilled labor. Foreign-born construction workers, who make up as much as a third of the sector's labor force, are often concentrated in specific trades required to build a home, such as plasterers and drywall installers, the Home Builders Institute <a target="_blank" href="https://hbi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spring-2024-CLMR-HBI-NAHB-FINAL.pdf">reported</a>."We consistently see government data showing that we are anywhere between 200,000 to 400,000 workers short in our industry and that lack of skilled labor slows down the pace of construction, drives up labor costs, and ultimately leads to higher home prices, and a slower pace of home building," Tobin said.A <a target="_blank" href="https://gwbushcenter.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/Immigrants-and-Opp-3.pdf">2022 George W. Bush Institute</a> study found that US metros with the highest immigrant population growth scored the lowest construction costs.Without the supply of these workers, history suggests housing costs are likely to rise.According to a <a target="_blank" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4729511">research paper</a> released earlier this year, home prices were found to rise in counties impacted by an immigration crackdown that spanned from late 2008 to 2014. The US "Secure Communities" program led to the deportation of over 300,000 undocumented immigrants in that time period, it cited.Given the pace of homebuilding, price effects were muted for two years after enforcement began, the study said. However, three years later, the average new construction property became 17% more expensive among tracked counties compared to the baseline.That translates to a $57,300 jump compared to the average property price before the program's implementation."Three years after SC rollout, the average county has foregone the equivalent of an entire year's worth of additional residential construction: 2,423 fewer buildings are permitted, and 1,997 fewer newly constructed homes enter the market," the authors wrote.Considering how wide-sweeping the Trump campaign's deportation effort could be, experts told BI that homebuilders would likely resort to wage hikes to attract domestic workers. These could be significant, given that the construction industry would be competing against other immigrant-dependent sectors.According to Tobin, mass deportation would also require the industry to redouble its efforts in attracting new domestic interest in the trades. "Whether that's kids coming out of out of high school, or adults that are looking for a new career, transitioning military that are coming out of the service. We would have to look at previously incarcerated."<h3 id="2780f5cd-9b64-4a83-a2ce-4c3dee812acf">What about demand?</h3>Trump's campaign has implied that cracking down on immigration will help ease housing unaffordability by effectively removing one source of demand. It's a talking point recently made by Vice President candidate JD Vance, who blamed "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jd-vance-debate-immigration-housing-prices-real-estate-federal-reserve/">millions of undocumented immigrants</a>" for adding pressure on a supply-constrained housing market.While research has suggested immigrant demand plays a role in influencing prices, economists generally doubt that this is a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">major driver</a>. Rents and home prices started surging in 2020 and 2021, at a time when net immigration inflows were close to the two-decade average, as tracked by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60569#:~:text=Over%20the%202021%E2%80%932026%20period%2C%20the%20net%20immigration%20of%20people,net%20immigration%20of%20that%20population">Congressional Budget Office</a>.Meanwhile, Trump's platform is also pushing another policy initiative that's unlikely to help housing costs: tariffs. The candidate has pledged to raise duties on virtually all imports to the US, raising them as much as 60% on Chinese imports."If you're going to add tariffs onto building materials, that cost is just going to be passed along to the homeowner or the renter," Tobin said, citing that there's a lack of evidence that tariffs will meaningfully increase production in the US. He pointed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nahb.org/blog/2024/08/canadian-lumber-tariffs">a 15% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber</a> that has failed to do this.

Trump's immigration crackdown could deplete the construction workforce and make housing more expensive     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A dated-looking 1950s-era home in the tech-billionaire hot spot Palo Alto is listed for $2 million.</li><li>Its listing agent posted a video tour that shocked people who said its look didn't match its price.</li></ul>The adage "location, location, location" is especially true in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/leaving-california-moving-to-las-vegas-living-in-seattle-2023-12">California</a>, where a property's ZIP code can significantly influence its price tag.Case in point: a newly listed 1950s-era home in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-palo-alto-super-rich-keep-economy-booming-2018-9">Palo Alto</a> that's causing a stir on social media — not for its beauty but for its $2 million price tag.<div type="image" title="The front door of a home in Palo Alto." height="828" width="838" msid="110568211" hostid="261"></div>The 1,134-square-foot three-bedroom home is in Palo Alto's Barron Park neighborhood, which the neighborhood-ranking site <a target="_blank" href="https://www.niche.com/places-to-live/n/barron-park-palo-alto-ca/">Niche describes as</a> a hip residential area with a population of just under 5,000.One of the few original residences left on its block, the house has wood-paneled walls and vintage floral wallpaper, with floors covered in scuffed hardwood and green shag carpeting.When the property <a target="_blank" href="https://websites.arborvisualmedia.com/604chimalusdrive">hit the market</a> earlier this month, its listing agent, <a target="_blank" href="https://mcnallyandassociates.com/Meet-The-Team/Olivia-McNally">Olivia McNally</a>, posted <a target="_blank" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7C0wjVyjKM/?igsh=MXE2OHBibmUyYTkycQ%3D%3D">a video of it on Instagram</a>, revealing its asking price would be $2 million. To McNally's surprise, her clip received 11.9 million views, 219,000 shares, and 40,500 comments.Many social-media users expressed disbelief that an outdated-seeming house in a modest-looking California neighborhood could fetch such a steep price."You can buy 20 of those in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/midwest-movers-gen-z-millennials-renters-single-california-texas-2024-2">Midwest</a> for the same amount," one user wrote. Another asked, "Is this a joke?"McNally, the real-estate agent in the San Francisco Bay Area who represents the home's seller, told Business Insider that the skeptics and naysayers simply didn't understand Palo Alto's real-estate market.<div type="image" title="The kitchen and living room of the residence at 604 Chimalus Drive in Palo Alto." height="1236" width="1870" msid="110568213" hostid="261"></div>Palo Alto, a city of about 69,000 residents that's 35 miles southeast of San Francisco and known as the birthplace of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/javier-milei-silicon-valley-leaders-musk-zuckerberg-cook-lithium-2024-5">Silicon Valley</a>, lies at the center of the tech universe. Many firms, including VMware and HP, have their headquarters there, while others, including Amazon and Tesla, have major presences.It's also home to many billionaires, including the Facebook founder and CEO <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-compete-to-partner-with-ai-startup-2024-5">Mark Zuckerberg</a> and the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/maintaining-hold-assessing-roku-s-performance-amid-market-challenges-1033303383">Roku</a> founder and CEO Anthony Wood. According to the US Census Bureau, Palo Alto's median household income as of 2022 was <a target="_blank" href="https://data.census.gov/profile/Palo_Alto_city,_California?g=160XX00US0655282">$179,707</a>, above the US median household income of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html#:~:text=Real%20median%20household%20income%20was,and%20Table%20A%2D1).">$74,580</a> in 2022. The presence of wealthy people, combined with an acute scarcity of housing inventory, has driven Palo Alto's property values to among the nation's highest.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.redfin.com/city/14325/CA/Palo-Alto/housing-market">Redfin</a> data shows the median sale price in Palo Alto reached $3.4 million in April, far above the US median sale price of $432,900 during the same time period.<div type="image" title="The home's only bathroom." height="1216" width="1872" msid="110568216" hostid="261"></div>Despite its condition, the home at 604 Chimalus Drive is incredibly desirable — in part because of the land on which it sits."In the Bay Area, there's hardly any land left," McNally told BI. "When land does become available, people will pay a premium for the dirt. That's really what they're buying here — the dirt in this Barron Park neighborhood."McNally said that the home's seller inherited the property from her parents, who owned it for 59 years. Initially, she planned to keep it and rent it out. However, as managing the property became difficult, she thought it would be wiser to sell it and create <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/biracial-didnt-understand-generational-wealth-growing-up-2024-2">generational wealth</a> for her children.<div type="image" title="A backyard of a Palo Alto home." height="1154" width="1864" msid="110568218" hostid="261"></div>The property has already attracted 10 offers, McNally said on Tuesday, nine of which are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/all-cash-homebuyers-disrupting-housing-market-2023-6">all cash</a> and free of contingencies.With many offers surpassing the home's asking price, she foresees a bidding war and expects a swift sale."When you find a property like this — well under market value — you can either do one of two things: either completely fix it up or tear it down and rebuild it," she said. "Obviously, a developer is going to rebuild it and sell it off to someone else."Correction: May 30, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated where Apple's and Intel's headquarters are. They are in Cupertino and Santa Clara, respectively, not in Palo Alto.

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