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<ul><li>The GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the 2019-20 came lower than expectations, at a mere 5%.</li><li>However, online searches for ‘<keyword id="121430" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="recession-in-india">recession in India</keyword>’ had spiked many times over in the last couple of months.</li><li>Afraid of a severe slowdown, Indian consumers had cut back expenses, even on items of daily use, setting in motion a vicious cycle of slowdown in manufacturing, investments, and unemployment.</li><li>Economists hope the recent stimulus from both the government and the RBI, as well as good rains, will help in reviving both the economy and the sentiment.</li></ul> India’s growth in gross domestic product (GDP) between April and June 2019 was a mere 5%, the worst in over six years and way below estimates. The data was released on Friday (August 30) but people in India had already been fearing a recession much before the government admitted to a sharp slowdown. Google Trends show that online searches for ‘recession in India’ spiked in the last couple of months, many times over, showing that people had already started to feel the pinch. 
	
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 The very first day of trading after the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the mega merger of ten public sector banks (PSB) into four, the stock markets went tumbling down on Tuesday September 3. Sensex shed 600 points whereas Nifty lost over 180 points. This fall was led by PSB stocks and most of their stocks were down by over 5%. This is one of the many measures taken to revive the economy. The economic wheel was brought to a grinding halt by demonetisation in November 2016, and the recovery was delayed by the disruptions caused by the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in mid-2017. As tax revenue fell, the Narendra Modi government <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/bonds-indian-economy-government-spending-1580704-2019-08-14">reduced spending</a> to keep the fiscal deficit under check. Private investments had already <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/performance-of-corporate-firms-declines/article29231755.ece">gone into a shell</a>, and as the Modi government tightened its purse strings in the last year of its first term, economic activity spiraled down. 
 
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 The report authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh is pushing for more aggressive interest rate cuts by the RBI. “We believe it is incorrect for central bankers to suggest that they have this challenge under control - or that with their current toolkit they will be able to get it under control,” said SBI Ecowrap. This deep slowdown is a culmination of many areas, in addition to decline in consumer sentiment right from slowing auto sales to reduced air traffic growth to cut backs on items of daily use. Before taking a look ahead, let’s look at the three main areas where growth is slowing down. Consumption hits a standstill with job losses Weary Indians are cutting down on expenses like no other, and that has affected the economy. As many as 350,000 jobs were cut in the formal sector of automobiles. This massive number does not count in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/a-third-of-indias-textile-workers-30-million-lost-their-jobs-and-more-could-go/articleshow/70781257.cms">textiles, diamond workers and </a>others. Combined with the informal sector job loss, the consumption loss would translate to around ₹15,000 crore. The growth in consumption expenditure slumped to 3.1% in the three months ending June 2019-- the weakest in five years. More than half of India lives outside the cities, and the broad-based consumption slowdown reflects the deep distress in the rural parts. “Agriculture, forestry and fishing output grew by 2% improving slightly from de-growth (contraction) of 0.1%,” said a report by Edelweiss. Manufacturing shutters down With low consumption and almost no demand growth in sight, the quarter’s manufacturing growth was as low as 0.6%. This is in spite of high growth in electricity and utility expansion. Investment lowers with less to spend Indian companies are seeing less reasons to keep their plants running, there is much less to invest either. As a result, investments growth has slipped to just 3.7%. Companies are choosing to park their money in financial assets rather than betting on a slowing economy. “With low wage growth rate, household savings are also particularly down. Thus, households are not closing the savings-investments gap and this is bringing down overall investments,” said Edelweiss. Simply put, people are choosing to hold on to cash rather than invest anywhere <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/gold-prices-on-a-rally-set-to-test-new-highs-of-1450-per-ounce/articleshow/69970217.cms">other than gold</a>. Will the Indian economy weaken further or enter a recession? An economy is defined to be in a recession if growth contracts for two straight quarters. That isn’t the case with India. However, many sectors within the Indian industry like automobiles and textiles-- two of the largest providers of jobs-- are already in recession. So there are reasons to worry but may be not for panic. The chickens have come home to roost. But the government has woken up to the emergency and is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/nirmala-sitharam-address-on-india-economic-stimulus-live-updates-and-highlights/articleshow/70804926.cms">shoring up money</a> to battle the slowdown. “Based on fiscal deficit numbers, in Pradhan Mantri Kisan Yojana (PMKY), the government will save ₹30,000 crore. If we add <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sensex-today-jumps-150-points-after-rbi-move-to-transfer-surplus/articleshow/70852202.cms">RBI surplus transfer</a>, the Government further would have adequate cushion for make up for revenue loss,” said a report by SBI Ecowrap. The more money the government spends in stimulating demand and investments in the economy either through sops for consumers or incentives for industries, the sooner the economy will revive. Aside from giving the government a part of its reserves, the RBI has already cut interest rates four times this year hoping to bring down lending rates, and Edelweiss believes that India’s GDP growth will start improving hereon as the effect of RBI’s measures start to trickle in. The rains will also have a role to play. “This number is likely to improve further the next quarter as a South-west monsoon season has been normal for this year,” the Edelweiss report said. Just like the pain of demonetisation and GST have lingered on for over two years, the government’s recent measures to boost economic growth may show effect with a lag.

Indians were fearing recession even before data showed that GDP growth hit a six-year low

Corporate <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> is indicating cautious <keyword id="6357342" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hiring" source="Orion">hiring</keyword> in the March quarter of 2023 as concerns rise over the possible <keyword id="6357558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="recession" source="Orion">recession</keyword> and steady inflation, a survey said on Thursday. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment <keyword id="23268" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="outlook" source="Orion">Outlook</keyword> Survey, based on interviews with nearly 3,030 public and private employers, hiring intentions will decrease in the quarter both on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. During the quarter, 48 per cent employers expect to increase their staffing levels, 16 per cent anticipate a decrease in hiring intent and 34 per cent do not anticipate any change in hiring, resulting in a net employment outlook of 32 per cent. When compared to the same period last year (January-March 2022), hiring sentiments have weakened by 17 percentage points and by 22 percentage points when compared to the previous quarter. "Employers are cautious due to the impending recession and deepening global slowdown which also created a stir in the IT sector during the previous quarter," Sandeep Gulati, Managing Director, <keyword id="12093048" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="manpowergroup-india" source="Orion">ManpowerGroup India</keyword> said. Citing reports, Gulati said 33 per cent of Indian CEOs have implemented a hiring freeze. "India may be impacted in the short term but in a country with the GDP net growth of 7 per cent, the market is expected to see a balanced approach with growth in the tech sector and startups," he said. "Consolidation of smaller startups dovetailing into the larger ones coupled with a measured approach to funding is expected to be the flavour driving the economy in 2023," he said, adding that "with India all set to host the G20 leaders' summit for the first time, we expect a lot to change in the employment-related scenario in the course of the year." As per the survey, hiring prospects have weakened in all four regions when compared with the previous quarter and the same time last year. Employers in all four regions expect to grow payrolls during the first quarter of 2023. North shows a strong hiring pace where the net employment outlook stood at 36 per cent followed by the West at 32 per cent while the outlook for the South and East was 29 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively. Digital roles will continue to drive most demand. Organizations in the IT industry and Finances and Real Estate report the most optimistic Outlook (39 per cent), followed by Consumer Goods and Services (37 per cent). "Skill gap continues to be a major constraint in the hiring intent and until it is addressed by corporates and educational institutes' combined efforts, growth in the employment rate will be in single digit," added Gulati. Globally, employers in 38 of 41 countries and territories anticipate a net positive hiring outlook. However, hiring confidence continues to drop across countries as concerns rise over the possible recession and steady inflation. Hiring managers across APAC (Asia Pacific) anticipate strong hiring sentiment with a net employment outlook of 25 per cent but slowing hiring intentions. Singapore with a net employment outlook of 33 per cent topped the list, followed by Australia (32 per cent), and India (32 per cent). Japan (8 per cent) and Taiwan (11 per cent) reported the most cautious employment outlook. "There's no denying that the headwinds that economists have been forecasting are beginning to impact labour markets," Jonas Prising, Chairman &amp; CEO of ManpowerGroup said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/salesforce-lays-off-over-7000-workers-as-it-hired-too-many-people-in-pandemic/articleshow/96752525.cms">Salesforce lays off over 7,000 workers as it hired 'too many people' in pandemic</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/japanese-startups-look-overseas-as-domestic-market-shrinks/articleshow/96756948.cms">Japanese startups look overseas as domestic market shrinks</a>

India Inc may go cautious on hiring as recession, slowdown looms: Manpower Employment Outlook

"Recession in India will end latest by March" -- So what should India's budget look like?

New Delhi, Dec 8 () Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan said India is in the midst of a "growth recession" with signs of deep malaise in the Indian economy that is being run through extreme centralisation of power in Prime Minister's Office and powerless ministers.
Penning down his recommendations to help the ailing Indian economy out of the ongoing slowdown in the India Today magazine, he called for reforms to liberalise capital, land and labour markets, and spur investment as well as growth.
He also urged India to join free trade agreements judiciously in order to boost competition and improve domestic efficiency.
"To understand what has gone wrong, we need to start first with the centralised nature of the current government. Not just decision-making but also ideas and plans emanate from a small set of personalities around the Prime Minister and in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO).
"That works well for the party's political and social agenda, which is well laid out, and where all these individuals have domain expertise. It works less well for economic reforms, where there is less of a coherent articulated agenda at the top, and less domain knowledge of how the economy works at the national rather than state level," Rajan wrote.
Stating that previous governments may have been untidy coalitions but they consistently took path of further economic liberalisation, he said, "extreme centralisation, coupled with the absence of empowered ministers and the lack of a coherent guiding vision, ensures that reform efforts pick up steam only when the PMO focuses on them, and lose impetus when its attention switches to other pressing issues".
"The Modi government came to power emphasising 'minimum government, maximum governance'. This slogan is often misunderstood. What was meant was that government would do things more efficiently, not that people and the private sector would be freed to do more. While the government continues the creditable drive to automation -- direct benefit transfer to recipients is an important achievement -- the role of the government in many spheres has expanded, not shrunk," he said.
Rajan said the starting point to address the economic slowdown will be for the Modi government to acknowledge the problem.
"The starting point has to be to recognise the magnitude of the problem, to not brand every internal or external critic as politically-motivated, and to stop believing that the problem is temporary and that suppressing bad news and inconvenient surveys will make it go away," he said. "India is in the midst of a growth recession, with significant distress in rural areas."
India's economic growth slowed to a 6-year low of 4.5 per cent in the July-September quarter. With inflation rising, fears of stagflation -- a fall in aggregate demand accompanied by rising inflation -- have resurfaced.
He said construction, real estate and infrastructure sectors are in "deep trouble" and so are lenders to it like the non-bank finance companies. The crisis among shadow lenders and a build-up of bad loans at banks have curbed lending in the economy.
Seeking asset quality review of the non-bank finance companies, he said corporate and household debt is rising, and there is deep distress in parts of the financial sector.
Unemployment, especially amongst youth, seems to be growing, as is the accompanying risk of youth unrest. "Domestic businesses have not been investing either, and the stagnation in investment is the strongest sign that something is deeply wrong," he said.
Rajan called for reforms in land acquisition, labour laws, stable tax and regulatory regime, fast track bankruptcy resolution of developers in default, proper pricing of electricity, preserving competition in telecom sector and giving farmers access to inputs and finance.
Calling for not selling already dominant family enterprises to avoid concentration of power, he also wanted decentralisation of power by empowering ministers and engaging states, beginning with amending the terms of reference of the 15th Finance Commission by not curtailing states' share of tax revenue.
Rajan said the government should desist from cutting personal income tax rates for the middle-class for now and should use its scarce fiscal resources to support the rural poor through schemes such as the MGNREGA.
The repeated government allusions to a USD 5-trillion-economy by 2024, which would necessitate steady real growth of at least 8-9 per cent per year starting now, seem increasingly unrealistic, he added.
"Furthermore, even if some of the problems are legacies, the government, after five-and-a-half years in power, needs to resolve them. A massive new reform thrust is needed, accompanied by a change in how the administration governs," he said.
Rajan said the Modi government has shown "surprising timidity" when it comes to unfinished reforms on the business environment, land acquisition, labour and the role of the public sector. ANZ BAL
BAL

India in growth recession; extreme centralisation of power in PMO not good: Rajan

<ul class="summary-list"><li>During the financial crisis, two countries kept the global <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> from cratering even further than it did — China and India. </li><li>Unfortunately this time around — in the economic crisis caused by the corornavirus pandemic — no country is coming to save us.</li><li>India has been on lockdown for months, and China is still feeling the debt hangover from the credit binge it went on to skip the financial crisis.</li><li>This gives us all the more reason for Washington to pass another <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword> aid bill as soon as possible.</li><li>This is an <keyword id="6356002" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="opinion">opinion</keyword> column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author. </li></ul>The coronavirus depression will be much worse than the last worldwide <keyword id="6357558" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Recession">recession</keyword>, because this time no country is strong enough to rescue the global economy.The story of the Great Recession goes like this: the US and Europe were crippled while working to clean up their devastated banking system, the global services sector suffered without its biggest player — the US consumer engine — but global economic growth didn't completely fall off a cliff because other countries kept money moving around the planet.Over in China policymakers enacted a massive stimulus to skip over the recession entirely. The country's GDP grew 9.4% in 2009. India chugged along as if the crisis barely happened, with its GDP growing 7.9% in 2009.But this time there is no corner of the globe that has been left untouched by the pandemic or its effects. And so, there's no country that can reasonably chug along and keep things from getting truly disastrous.Economists over the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently wrote in a recent note that it was the growth of these two countries that lifted the global economy while the US economy was on its knees. That is why global GDP only fell to -0.4% in in 2009. Conversely, without their help the economists estimate that global GDP to fall to -3.8% this year.<div type="image" title="Coronavirus will hand us a bigger slowdown than the financial crisis. Partly because India and China aren't growing this time.e" height="569" width="1294" msid="78090609" hostid="261"></div><h2>Holding out for a hero</h2>The high growth countries that kept the global economy from free fall aren't coming to save us this time. Nobody is.India is <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-india-lockdown-september-11-2020-live-updates/article32578190.ece">now on its 170th</a> day of lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Credit rating firm Moody's expects economic <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/moody-s-projects-11-5-contraction-in-india-s-economic-growth-in-fy21-11599822389400.html">growth to fall 11.5%</a> in 2020.And while the worst of China's lockdowns have passed (for now), it's expected GDP growth of around 3.2% for 2020 is a far cry from a decade ago. Plus, this time around China's policymakers are being much more <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/no-shock-and-little-awe-china-s-stimulus-underwhelms-traders">cautious with their stimulus</a> In some part this is because the government is concerned it may have to institute another lockdown. Policymakers are also being cautious because China is still dealing with a massive debt hangover from 2009. Skipping a recession doesn't come cheap. China spent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/economy/coronavirus-china-economy-stimulus.html">half a trillion dollars</a> avoiding the financial crisis, and in the years that followed it built up a massive, opaque shadow banking system that it has since been trying to tamp down since 2015. This year China's total debt – corporate, household, and government — climbed to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt-idUSKCN1UD0KD">303% of GDP.</a> So while the government is pulling some levers it pulled to spur economic activity during the financial crisis — like encouraging infrastructure investment — China's central bank, The People's Bank of China, has said it sees <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/chinas-central-bank-sees-little-need-for-more-stimulus-this-year.html">no need</a> for additional emergency stimulus in 2020. With weak demand coming from China and India, Latin America will sell fewer commodities, and the whole of Asia will slow, the IIF notes. We cannot expect exceptional growth from there.Could the European Union could save us? The rapid response of Eurozone countries to the pandemic seemed to be a model for the rest of the world and a potential salve for the economic chaos. But now cases <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/record-breaking-coronavirus-cases-france-180312962.html">spiking in countries like Spain and France</a> and it's unlikely that the bloc will have the economic power to boost the rest of the world for the time being.In <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-world-economy-will-shrink-after-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-2020-4">April I wrote that</a> even when the coronavirus was brought under control we would live in a shrunken world — a world where human transactions would be limited. Since economic transactions are mostly human interactions, you can see the problem there. It was obvious that a slowdown was coming, how bad would depend on how we handled it.April was a simpler time, back then the assumption was that the US would bring its first wave to heel and that a second wave may rear its ugly head in the fall. Of course, our first wave never ended. We have handled the coronavirus badly. The US unemployment rate is sitting at 8.3%. Testing is splotchy. Washington was able to get its act together to blunt the full force of the coronavirus' onset, but now Democrats and Republicans are locked in an argument over whether or not the country needs another rescue package.It does. In fact, the whole world needs it.

No one is coming to save the global economy this time

New Delhi, Feb 3 () Following are the top business stories at 1800 hours:-
 
DCM21 LSQ-BANK FRAUDS
Banks, select financial institutions report frauds involving Rs 1.13 lakh crore in H1 of FY20: Sitharaman
New Delhi: Frauds involving Rs 1,13,374 crore were reported by banks and select financial institutions in the first half of the current financial year, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told Parliament on Monday. 
 
DEL68 BIZ-TAX-REVENUE SECY
New tax structure gives option to save tax: Revenue Secy
New Delhi: The new lower income tax rates offered in the Budget 2020-21 will leave more cash in the hands of those who do not wish to make compulsory investments to save tax, said Revenue Secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey.
 
DCM23 BIZ-FITCH-BUDGET
Fitch predicts India's FY21 GDP growth at 5.6 pc
New Delhi: Fitch Ratings on Monday said India is expected to clock a GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in the next financial year, lower than the projection made by the government's Economic Survey, as Budget 2020 has not "materially altered" its view on the country's growth outlook. 
 
DEL58 BIZ-LD-STOCKS
Sensex, Nifty recover from budget despair as manufacturing data raise hopes
Mumbai: Stock markets recovered from the budget blues on Monday with the benchmark index Sensex closing higher by 137 points after a survey showed manufacturing activity soared to an eight-year high on new orders.
 
DCM36 BIZ-LD AIRINDIA PRIVATISATION-STAFF
Buyers of Air India, BPCL not to get free hand to shed excess staff: DIPAM secretary
New Delhi:Buyers of loss-making airline Air India and oil firm Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) will not get a free hand to shed excess workforce as the government will build in certain protection to employees in the share sale agreement, DIPAM Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey said.
 
DCM25 LSQ-ECONOMY RECESSION
Economy not in recession: Anurag Thakur
New Delhi: The government on Monday said the economy is not in recession and India recorded the highest average growth among the G-20 nations during 2014-19.
 
DCM17 BIZ-MCDONALDS-PARTNER
McDonald's selects Sanjeev Agrawal as new partner for north, east India markets
New Delhi: US fast food chain McDonald's has selected MMG Group chairman Sanjeev Agrawal as its new partner to operate its outlets in north and east India, the company said. 
 
DEL63 BIZ-RUPEE-CLOSE
Rupee settles 3 paise down at 71.35 against US dollar
Mumbai: The rupee pared early losses to settle 3 paise down at 71.35 against the US dollar on Monday, tracking recovery in domestic equities and easing crude oil prices.
 
DCM24 BIZ-THAKUR-LIC
Interest of LIC policyholders will be protected, says Anurag Thakur
New Delhi: The government will protect the interest of policyholders of LIC, which is likely to go public in the next financial year, Minister of State for Finance Anurag Thakur has said. 
 

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Business Highlights

New Delhi, Mar 19 () It may take six to nine months for factories to come back on track if India manages to contain the spread of coronavirus in the next quarter beginning April, India Inc said on Thursday. Industry also said the coronavirus pandemic has made the global economic recovery extremely difficult in the near-to-medium term, and India is also experiencing disruptions in many ways that have the potential to derail the growth story. The World Health Organization (WHO) has already declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. Globally, the virus has already claimed over 8,000 lives globally, including four in India. "If the pandemic is contained in the next quarter, it will take two to three quarters before factories can operate at capacity, and the global supply chain starts to get back to normalcy," said industry chamber Assocham. The report also expressed apprehension that with more people encouraged to work remotely and businesses shutting stores or plying lesser hours, the economy is expected to witness a fall in consumer confidence and spending. Another leading industry body FICCI said the coronavirus outbreak could gorge a deeper impact now as the global economy is already going through a slow phase currently, including China. "A crisis of this magnitude can therefore translate into a bigger slump for the world economy at this juncture. Apprehensions regarding the current slowdown turning into recession also cannot be ruled out at this point of time," it said. S&amp;P Global Ratings on Wednesday said global economy has entered recession. FICCI said there was a strong hope of recovery in the last quarter of this financial year. "However, the new coronavirus epidemic has made the recovery extremely difficult in the near-to-medium term. "Like other affected economies in the world, India is also experiencing disruptions in many ways which have the potential to derail India's growth story," it said. Assocham further said that if the virus spreads more pervasively, and there is a need for tighter restrictions of movement of goods and people and many more shutdowns across India, the economy could witness a prolonged recession. "In such a scenario, the recovery would be L-shaped, where the economy is stuck in recession throughout the year, taking the country longer to bounce back," it said. Avoiding this scenario is the top-most priority of governments across the world and India, which has been struggling with a sluggish economic environment, Assocham added. The eventual recovery from this pandemic in India is dependant on the extent of the spread within the country and across global markets, said industry bodies. Additionally, government intervention across all markets would define the rate of recovery. RSN NKD CS HRS

It may take 9 months for factories to be on track provided virus spread contained quickly: Industry

New Delhi, Mar 18 () S&amp;P Global Ratings on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast to 5.2 per cent for 2020, saying the global economy is entering a recession amid the coronavirus pandemic.The agency had earlier projected a growth rate of 5.7 per cent during the 2020 calendar.Asia-Pacific economic growth in 2020 will be more than halve to less than 3 per cent as the "global economy enters a recession", S&amp;P said in a statement.An enormous first-quarter shock in China, shutdowns across the US and Europe, and local virus transmission guarantees a deep recession across Asia-Pacific, said Shaun Roache, chief Asia-Pacific economist at S&amp;P Global Ratings."We lower our forecasts for China, India, and Japan for 2020 to 2.9 per cent, 5.2 per cent and -1.2 per cent (from 4.8 per cent, 5.7 per cent, and -0.4 per cent previously)," S&amp;P said.On Tuesday, Moody's Investors Service had lowered India's economic growth forecast for 2020 to 5.3 per cent (from 5.4 per cent), in the wake of the coronavirus impact on the economy. NKD IJT

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Indians were fearing recession even before data showed that GDP growth hit a six-year low

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India Inc may go cautious on hiring as recession, slowdown looms: Manpower Employment Outlook

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"Recession in India will end latest by March" -- So what should India's budget look like?

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No one is coming to save the global economy this time

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