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<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="19938893" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="defence-exports" source="keywords">defence exports</keyword> have surged from Rs 15 billion in 2017 to Rs 210 billion in 2024, registering a CAGR of 46 per cent, highlighted a report on 'Defence Conference 3.0' by Antique Stock Broking. The report stated that the <keyword id="20861069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-shift" source="keywords">global shift</keyword> towards a China+1 strategy and the impact of the <keyword id="20016971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia-Ukraine-war" source="keywords">Russia-Ukraine war</keyword> offer India additional opportunities to fill supply chain gaps, potentially boosting its share in the <keyword id="23046732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-defence-industry" source="keywords">global defence industry</keyword>. The report noted that the country's long-term goal is to become a global defence manufacturing hub is driven by Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), private enterprises, start-ups, and MSMEs. "Indian defence exports have grown multi-fold from INR 15 bn in 2017 to INR 210 bn in 2024 at a CAGR of 46%. The China + 1 strategy and the Russia-Ukraine war provides an additional opportunity for India to fill the gap created in the supply chain and hence increase its contribution to the global defence industry," the report read. The report added that to achieve this target a well-developed domestic ecosystem is crucial as lower import content in products accelerates approvals by reducing international conflicts. The report added that the Ministry of Defence has taken key initiatives to attract Indian private players and global Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) include establishing aerospace parks and defence corridors, fast-tracking project approvals, and enhancing development and testing facilities. Highlighting the potential in India's Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) segment the report explained that it holds a significant potential for global aerospace companies due to its technical expertise and cost-competitive solutions. "India provides a huge opportunity in the <keyword id="23046733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MRO-segment" source="keywords">MRO segment</keyword> for global aerospace leaders given the expertise the country provides as well as the cost efficiency solutions compared to its global competitors" the report added. India aims to increase domestic defence turnover to Rs 3 lac crore by 2029, Rs 500 billion targeted for exports. This growth will help reduce the Government of India's import bill as India remains the world's largest importer of defence equipment. Under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative of the government, 75 per cent of the defence capital outlay is now reserved for domestic players, up from 49 per cent in FY21. Given the geopolitical challenges and modernisation needs of its Armed Forces, the report added that India plans to invest Rs 8.3 lac crore in domestic procurement, offering substantial business opportunities for local companies. "India intends to place orders worth INR 8.3 trn through domestic procurement and thus it presents a massive business opportunity for local players" it added. As per the Ministry of Defence, India's defence manufacturing sector has witnessed an increase of 16.8 per cent in the fiscal year 2023-24. This significant increase marks the highest-ever growth in the country's defence production value. The total value of defence production reached Rs 1,26,887 crore this year, up from the previous year's figures.

India's defence exports surge to Rs 210 billion after global shift towards China+1, Russia-Ukraine war: Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Despite pressure from Western allies, India has refused to isolate Russia over the Ukraine war.</li><li>India's Narendra Modi this week spoke with both Ukraine's and Russia's leaders.</li></ul>When <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/narendra-modi-won-already-seeing-cost-him-allies-cabinet-funding-2024-6">Narendra Modi</a> visited Ukraine over the weekend, he greeted its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy with an exuberant bear hug.He did the same <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-india-modi-putin-hug-west-isolation-big-blow-2024-7">to Vladimir Putin</a> only weeks ago when he traveled to Moscow to meet the Russian president, much to the anger of Zelenskyy."It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day," Zelenskyy wrote on X at the time.Modi's visits to both Ukraine and Russia characterize his relentless ambiguity on the Ukraine war. He has not condemned nor supported the invasion and is now acting as a peacemaker.The diplomatic highwire act highlights the dilemma Modi faces as he seeks to balance pressure from the US to show more support for Ukraine against <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">maintaining good ties with Russia.</a><h2 id="5631f287-50fa-42fc-9492-15da89d39bf8">A quick end to the war</h2>In the wake of the Ukraine trip, Modi called Putin. In a post on X, Modi said he reiterated "India's firm commitment to support an early, abiding and peaceful resolution of the conflict."Dinakar Peri, a fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, told Business Insider that Modi's Ukraine visit was high on symbolism."Although the image of India being a peacemaker is largely rhetoric, the fact of the matter is that India is definitely uniquely positioned in comparison to many other countries due to the kind of bandwidth they have with Russia," said Peri.Rahul Bhatia, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told BI that while India is reluctant to come down on one side in the Ukraine war, it sees grave dangers in a prolonged conflict in Ukraine."India has sought to take a balanced approach to the war in Ukraine. New Delhi wants to maintain its relationship with Russia regardless of its diplomatic isolation," said Bhatia.<h2 id="bb68f21a-9c73-4a16-a530-190e801237c5">India's ties with the Kremlin are tested</h2>Modi's insistence on not taking a side in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-murder-convict-ivan-rossomakhin-kills-again-joins-army-wagner-2024-8">Ukraine</a> is likely to baffle and frustrate many Western observers, but analysts say there are vital economic and strategic goals behind India's position.India has long had <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-bid-undermine-global-ukraine-support-working-zelenskyy-peace-2024-6">close diplomatic ties with Russia</a>. During the Cold War, it relied on the Kremlin for military support while the US-backed regional rival Pakistan.It now depends on Russia for oil supplies, surpassing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7">China</a> this week to become Russia's top oil importer."Most of the oil India imports from Russia is actually going to Europe," said Peri. "India is just a conduit — the oil is refined here, and the refined petroleum products are going to Europe as we speak.""In that way, India has played the middle role of stabilizing the larger global economy, which would otherwise have gone for a toss."Peri also pointed out India's dependence on Russia for military equipment, as well as upgrades and spare parts."Around 60% of Indian military equipment is of Russian origin," said Peri. "We have received a lot from other countries in the last few decades, like France, Israel, and increasingly so from the US, but we're still heavily Russian-oriented."But the Ukraine war has shaken up India's relations with the Kremlin.The US is pressuring India to help isolate Putin as punishment for the Ukraine invasion, and India is worried about the Kremlin's increasingly close relationship with China, which has backed Russia amid the Ukraine invasion."India-US ties are not just about Russia or the war in Ukraine," said Peri. "They're also about trade and strategic cooperation, which in some cases is also underpinned by concerns over China or the larger developments in the Indo-Pacific."<h2 id="4c3050d8-adb0-46af-b14f-2689f19f7caa">India sees Russia as a buffer against China's aggression</h2>India has long been concerned about China's increasing aggressiveness in Asia, with a Himalayan border dispute erupting into clashes that left 24 people dead in 2020.Indian and Chinese militaries have been engaged in a standoff on the disputed region of Ladakh since 2020. Although the countries have disengaged on several points, the standoff has continued.Peri said that is India dependent on good ties with the Kremlin to help mitigate that threat: "The standoff created new dynamics for India, and those are all factors which will be in Indian calculations on the stand it takes."Bhatia agreed that India has an eye on China when it engages with Russia. "While New Delhi accepts that Russia and China will gradually grow closer, it believes that maintaining a good relationship with Moscow will ensure that Russia remains neutral when India-China border tensions flare up," he said.It also relies on close ties with the US to help counter China's aggression, reviving the "Quad" dialogue with the US, Australia, and Japan in 2017 to counter China's threat.In the meantime, Modi will likely continue India's tightrope act, maintaining its alliance with the US while seeking not to alienate the Kremlin as it warily watches China's growing might.

India's refusal to take a side in the Ukraine war is frustrating the West. But it has its reasons.

<keyword id="22003705" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-traders" source="keywords">Indian traders</keyword> involved in <keyword id="22003703" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="border-trade" source="keywords">border trade</keyword> with China through the <keyword id="22003704" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lipulekh-pass" source="keywords">Lipulekh pass</keyword> in Pithoragarh district since 1992, have requested the central government to take up the issue of resumption of border trade through this route with Beijing. The trade route was closed rather suddenly after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, forcing Indian traders to return from the <keyword id="22003706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Taklakot-mart" source="keywords">Taklakot mart</keyword> in Tibet leaving behind their woollen products. Five years have passed but the route has not been opened, an organisation of border traders in Dharchula said. The traders who belong to the <keyword id="22005864" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bhotia-tribe" source="keywords">Bhotia tribe</keyword> started to raise their demand for reopening of the trade route through Lipulekh after China recently began the process of implementing a pact, in which it had agreed to open all 14 trade passes with Nepal. The implementation of the agreement inked by China and Nepal in December, 2022 began on May 25 this year, when China opened Piangi pass situated in Dolpa district of eastern Nepal, president of Bharat Tibetan Simant Vyapar Samiti, Dharchula Jeewan Singh Rongkali said. Three more passes along the Indo-Tibet border in the western region of Nepal that fall in the districts of Humla, Bajang and Darchula will be opened on June 20, 30 and 25 respectively, he said. "We have so far sent 22 applications to the government of India requesting it to take up with the Chinese authorities the reopening of the trade route through Lipulekh pass but have received no response so far," Rongkali said. According to Rongkali, Indian tribal traders from Dharchula alone have left trading items worth Rs 15 lakh in <keyword id="22005865" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="taklakot" source="keywords">Taklakot</keyword> Mart of Tibet at the time of closure of border trade in 2019, following the Covid-19 pandemic. "We have no information if our stored goods are safe or in a state of decay. They were stored in plywood covers at the time of closure of trade," Rongkali said. "We want trade with China to be resumed through Lipulekh pass but if for some reason it is not possible then the traders should be given 15 days' time to go to Taklakot to ring back their goods," he said. Goods of over 450 Indian tribal traders have been lying there for the last 5 years, he said. According to Rongkali, over 450 Indian traders used to supply essential goods to villagers of over 45 villages of western Tibet through this trade route since 1992. "Out of over 1.5 crore trade annually, we have paid lakhs of rupees towards customs duty and other taxes to the government of India," said Rongkali. China announced in the year 2022 that it will build trans Himalayan multi-dimensional connectivity with Nepal to restructure the road and communication network with that country, Rongkali said. "As China has not given permission to open our passes along the Indo-China border, we have an apprehension that the mart made for Indian traders in Gakkhu town of Taklakot could be handed over to Nepalese traders," said Rongkali.

Indian traders demand resumption of border trade with China through Lipulekh pass

<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korea fighting alongside Russia would be a serious escalation to the Ukraine war.</li><li>NATO and Western allies are facing pressure to respond — but have historically been hesitant.</li></ul>Western allies have options to react to the threat of North Korean troops in Russia, but are hamstrung by fears of escalation, military experts told Business Insider. On Monday, the Pentagon<a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/article/3948100/pentagon-deputy-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-an-off-camera-on-the-record/"> said</a> that 10,000 North Korean troops had been shipped to Russia for training and were likely to join Russian forces"over the next several weeks." NATO chief Mark Rutte said that some troops are already in Kursk, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_230105.htm">calling</a> the move "a significant escalation." He added that it is "yet another" contravention of UN Security Council resolutions. He said the bloc is "actively consulting" on what to do next. Despite these statements — and a similar chorus of condemnation from Western governments — few commitments have been made. On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed frustration, saying that his allies' response was "not so loud as it has to be" in reaction to the North Korean threat,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-war-in-ukraine-russia-north-korean-troops-western-allies-response/"> Politico reported</a>. "Till now, we heard some reactions, but it is not strong enough," he added. <h2>A watershed moment?</h2>In itself, 10,000 more troops in Russia's war in Ukraine is not a game changer, Patrick Bury, a military analyst at the UK's University of Bath, told BI. The troops, many with no experience in real war situations, could also be of limited help. There is reason, however, to imagine the numbers could rise. North Korea has steadily ramped up its cooperation with Russia, reportedly supplying<a target="_blank" href="https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/north-korea-supplies-half-of-the-shells-used-by-russia-in-ukraine-d3fkhppjs"> half of all artillery shells</a> used in Ukraine in the last year. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has the fourth-largest standing army in the world, so there is no shortage of troops. Crucially, experts consider his regime to be receiving<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-military-officials-helping-russia-ukraine-win-for-kim-2024-10"> an economic and technological lifeline</a> in exchange. Edward Hunter Christie, a former NATO official and a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, described the dangers of the partnership as "a much more serious test of resolve for the West than most people currently realize." He added: "There's a reluctance to act." This at least means there will be no rash decisions, he said. Christie, along with other experts BI spoke to, described a hesitancy and fear of escalation among Ukraine's biggest Western partners that amounts to alack of overall strategy. <h2>The West has some options — and a history of slapping them down</h2>When it comes to options for the US and Europe, "the tools are the same tools that have been there all along," Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2024-10-28/ukraine-allies-face-limited-options-as-north-korea-troops-arrive?embedded-checkout=true"> told Bloomberg.</a> That includes the ad-hoc trickling through of aid packages like one<a target="_blank" href="https://kyivindependent.com/norways-pm-announces-new-500-million-euro-aid-package-for-ukraine/"> recently announced by Norway</a>. It also includes things that have long been ruled out, like allowing Ukraine to make long-range strikes in Russia with Western-supplied missiles. A bipartisan group in Congress has called on Biden to allow Poland to intercept Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4960374-biden-poland-air-defense-ukraine/">The Hill reported</a>. It's a move that NATO's former chief Jens Stoltenberg had earlier ruled out, saying it would risk the alliance "becoming part of the conflict," the outlet reported. South Korea, too, has said it is considering sending military aid directly to Ukraine. It's an unprecedented move that could prove highly beneficial, but which the state is hesitant to make,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-big-difference-russia-north-korea-2024-10"> experts told BI</a>. Lithuania's foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, has also revived a suggestion made in February by France's President Emmanuel Macron of not ruling out the deployment of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/french-president-wont-rule-out-sending-troops-ukraine-2024-2">NATO troops in Ukraine</a>, in support roles. "We are still on the back foot, reacting to escalation instead of reversing it,"<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1848006509013225679"> Landsbergis wrote on X</a>. "Macron's ideas should now be revisited." That idea was earlier<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-angry-germany-series-screw-ups-leaks-scholz-macron-ukraine-2024-3"> publicly slapped down</a> by Germany's Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Such a move "would free up a lot of resources for Ukraine," said Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at RAND. It would also send an important signal to Russia, she said: "That they don't have dominance on the escalation ladder." <h2>The escalation trap</h2>President Joe Biden's administration — along with much of Western Europe — has largely avoided actions that could be seen as escalating the conflict. The fact that now a serious escalation looks possible thanks to North Korea is an indication of the failure of that policy, Christie told BI. The US presidential election and the impending change of administration also puts a chilling effect on any dramatic changes in policy for the coming months, he said. "We live in an age of US-led hesitancy within the Western world, which just keeps on failing us, which just keeps on increasing the level of danger to the security of the collective West," he said. The bind for the Biden administration is not only in dealing with two nuclear states, but also that North Korea's belligerence could cause the conflict to spill over toward its southern neighbor and<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-muted-response-russia-north-korea-alliance-costly-ukraine-economy-2024-10">damage relations with China.</a> Western states are likely to have been quietly hoping that China might step in diplomatically and dissuade North Korea, Christie said. At some point, the West has to react decisively, he argued. Dailey told BI: "The problem with having a strategy of de-escalation is that if that is your stated strategy, you've already ceded every step on the escalation ladder to the enemy." In Bury's view, the West's problem is that it cannot even agree on its broader strategy, let alone decide how to implement it. "The broader point here is: the West, we're not doing the strategy," he said. "We're muddling through."

What can the West do about North Korea giving troops to Russia? Not much it hasn't already flinched from.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US lithium production is set to spike with new projects advancing in Nevada and California.</li><li>The expansion aims to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and electric-vehicle batteries.</li></ul>The US is on the cusp of a lithium boom after years of laying the groundwork for an electric-vehicle supply chain that doesn't rely on China.Within the past month, the Biden administration has approved the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine in Nevada and loaned $2.6 billion to the company developing Thacker Pass, another lithium mine in the state. A project in California's Salton Sea started construction earlier this year. The three sites, expected to come online between 2026 and 2028, would massively increase the US's lithium supply. Since the 1960s, only one site, Silver Peak, in Nevada, has operated in the country.The expansion is aimed at curbing China's control over the metals used in EV batteries and other renewable-energy technologies that countries need to decarbonize their economies. While most of the world's lithium is produced in Australia and South America, some two-thirds of it is processed in China, which also dominates EV-battery manufacturing. The US imports about 25% of its lithium supply from Chile and Argentina, but an analysis of federal data by the Atlantic Council found that it relied on China for about 70% of its lithium-ion batteries in 2023."If we're electrifying the transportation industry, you don't want to rely on any one country," Bernard Rowe, a managing director of Ioneer, which is developing Rhyolite Ridge, told Business Insider. "There was a recognition that there had to be domestic production."<div type="image" title="A customs officer holds powdery white lithium carbonate during an inspection at Shanghai İnternational Port on June 6, 2022." height="683" width="1024" msid="114817441" hostid="261" sizebytes="27062"></div>The Biden administration is encouraging US mining and manufacturing through a mix of loans, grants, tax breaks, and research and development programs — a lot of which was authorized under the Inflation Reduction Act. The incentives cover activities including extracting critical minerals like lithium; manufacturing solar, wind, and battery parts; buying EVs; and recycling components.Rowe argued that while the US alone can't meet the skyrocketing demand for lithium due to rising sales of EVs and battery storage, some of the supply has to be sourced domestically for national security reasons.Karl Friedhoff, a fellow for Asia studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, agreed. He said there's no world in which the US and its partners can quickly compete with China on critical minerals; China already has so much capacity that it sets global prices."The question then is, can the US and other partner countries create a supply chain that meets their basic requirements," Friedhoff, who's part of a project exploring how the US, Japan, Australia, and India can cooperate to shift supply chains away from China. "Can we supply our own batteries? Can we build our own battery technologies? Do we have enough rare-earth elements for defense?"Based on estimates from Ioneer and other lithium project developers, the US could produce more than enough supply for the 1.4 million EVs sold in the country last year, which accounted for 7% of the auto market.The Biden administration wants EVs to account for at least 50% of car sales by 2030, and states like California and Texas are quickly deploying more battery storage to help balance stressed power grids. In September, the White House said US lithium production was on track to meet one-fifth of global demand outside of China this decade.<h2 id="c11b28df-2899-481e-8b55-b52898315793">Some environmentalists, Native tribes are alarmed</h2>The lithium projects haven't been without controversy, however. The Center for Biological Diversity <a target="_blank" href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/blm-grants-final-approval-to-nevada-lithium-mine-threatening-biodiversity-cultural-landscapes-2024-10-24/?_gl=1*jmu4dt*_gcl_au*MTc3Mjg1OTA3Ni4xNzI5ODYzNzkz">has threatened to sue the Biden administration</a> over its permit for Rhyolite Ridge, arguing that the project could drive an endangered wildflower to extinction. The Western Shoshone Defense Project, which works to protect the Western Shoshone peoples' native homelands, says the mine threatens local water sources and culturally important sites.<div type="image" title="A Tiehm's buckwheat plant in Esmeralda County, Nevada, grows beside where the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine is planned." height="682" width="1024" msid="114817435" hostid="261" sizebytes="82450"></div>Thacker Pass faced similar opposition, but a federal judge last year dismissed a lawsuit from three Native tribes who argued that the mine's construction near a sacred site along Nevada's border with Oregon violated the law, <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/lithium-mine-tribes-climate-energy-lawsuit-nevada-7a65eee7d78d93a1e44e3f8e10445143">the AP reported</a>.Rowe said Ioneer redesigned the Rhyolite Ridge mine to limit its footprint in the critical habitat of the endangered wildflower, Tiehm's buckwheat. He said Ioneer would also monitor the pollinator population and adopt dust-control strategies. The Biden administration, in issuing the permit for the mine, said it would not jeopardize the flower's survival.Some companies are working on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lithium-mining-electric-vehicles-climate-crisis-2023-5">direct lithium extraction techniques</a> that don't involve open-pit mining or large evaporation ponds and therefore could require less land and water and produce less toxic chemical waste. Controlled Thermal Resources is developing such a project in the Salton Sea, where lithium-rich brine is already being used to power geothermal plants.Tapping the US's newly discovered lithium resources likely hinges on the new extraction techniques, which currently cost more than traditional methods and still haven't been used commercially. The US Geological Survey this month estimated that there's enough lithium underneath southwestern Arkansas to meet the projected global demand for car batteries in 2030 nine times over.Actually extracting that lithium, including from brines left over from oil and gas production in the region, depends on whether the direct extraction techniques are viable, USGS researchers said.

The US is on the cusp of a lithium boom to loosen China's grip on EVs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting China, seeking support amid Western sanctions.</li><li>Russia's economy now relies on wartime activities and trade with China.</li></ul>Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a two-day visit to China, and he's bringing along a large trade delegation. It's his first official trip overseas following his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-vladimir-putin-presidential-election-vote-landslide-win-2024-3">reelection for a fifth term</a>, and it has come days after he appointed a civilian economist to helm Russia's defense ministry, showing his country's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-putin-appoints-civilian-economist-belousov-defense-minster-wartime-2024-5">wartime economy</a> is here to stay.But while China is Russia's most important market, Putin isn't just courting Xi Jinping — China's leader who has called Putin his "<a target="_blank" href="http://en.people.cn/n3/2023/1019/c90000-20085863.html">old friend</a>" — for economic support. The Russian leader is also forging a strategic relationship."The two states are allies not because they share any particular cultural or ideological affinity; rather, they have come together on account of the old adage that the 'enemy of my enemy is my friend,'" Chels Michta, a non-resident fellow at the <a target="_blank" href="https://cepa.org/article/china-russia-axis-heralds-an-ominous-future/">Center for European Policy Analysis</a>, wrote on Wednesday."Their partnership is largely practical — anchored in hard power principles bereft of ideological pretense or posturing," Michta added."In this realpolitik alignment, both parties believe they have more to gain from continuing to work together than they risk losing," she continued.<h2 id="2c51bb30-2c91-47f0-a996-cbe47d4f1db3">Putin needs to balance out China's hold over Russia's economy</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Russia's economy</a> has remained resilient in the face of more than two years of Western sanctions, partly thanks to boosts from state subsidies and wartime production.One economist went so far as to say that Russia's economy was so driven by the war that it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">couldn't afford to win or lose</a> in the conflict.But Russia has also become increasingly reliant on China since it started the war in Ukraine. Bilateral trade reached a record level of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">$240 billion last year</a> — a 26% jump from $190 billion a year earlier."It is fair to say that without China's economic support, Russia would not have been able to brave the economic sanctions imposed on it by the West in the wake of Putin's all-out invasion of Ukraine," Michta wrote.But she also noted that the boom in trade had served China's interests more than Russia's, putting Moscow in an increasingly subordinate position. For instance, she wrote, Russia was now "exporting raw materials to China while China sends finished goods, especially cars, to Russia — the latter at the expense of Russia's indigenous auto industry."So, a key item on Putin's agenda in China would be to get the country to endorse a proposed natural-gas pipeline from Siberia to China since Russia has lost its market in Europe — previously its single largest market — because of sanctions."By selling large volumes of cheap gas to China, Russia can potentially tie Beijing into a closer geopolitical alliance," analysts at the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/the-future-of-the-power-of-siberia-2-pipeline/">Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University</a> wrote on Wednesday."Convincing China to commit to such a large project during the war would be a geopolitical coup for Moscow, demonstrating to the West and the Global South that it is able to deepen its energy relationship with China despite the war," the energy analysts added.But China doesn't actually need more gas before the mid-2030s, so time is on Beijing's side.<h2 id="6ff7cf79-c305-4717-9f57-cf1bee24cf17">China says it wants peace, but it has more to gain from continued war</h2>Beijing has called for peace in Ukraine and put forth a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html">proposal</a> — which some analysts say is <a target="_blank" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/02/inside-chinas-peace-plan-for-ukraine?lang=en">vague</a> — to that end last year.But some analysts say China has more to gain from a continuing war."America's continued support for Kyiv — and hence Russia's inability to secure its gains in short order — is actually in Beijing's interest," CEPA's Michta wrote."The termination of US aid would work against China since the implosion of Ukraine would halt — or at least slow — Moscow's slide toward vassal-like dependency on Beijing," she added.Michta, who's also a military intelligence officer serving in the US Army, said Beijing appeared to have decided that backing Russia was worth any retaliation from the West.As she noted, an increasingly dependent Russia may be able to offer Beijing key military technology it has developed in the post-Soviet era, thus helping China make huge strides in the sector.<h2 id="6ee973f7-9870-4e23-ad20-3d50eec09ef9">Moscow and Beijing want to upend the West's dominance in the global order</h2>Despite their attempts to one-up each other, Russia and China's ever-closer relationship is a problem for the West."Currently, a unity of purpose between the autocratic powers has created the closest relationship in decades. China and Russia are forging a partnership increasingly reminiscent of a great power alliance," Michta wrote.In particular, Beijing has set its sights further than Russia — which is more interested in changing power relationships in Europe."Beijing is pursuing a far more ambitious project aimed at changing the foundations of the global order," Michta wrote, "ending once and for all the era of worldwide Western dominion."

Neither Russia nor China wants the Ukraine war to end, but for different reasons

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Russia to visit its president Vladimir Putin. </li><li>It's a visit that risks annoying India's ally the US. </li></ul>When India's prime minister arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, he greeted Russia's famously chilly president, Vladimir Putin, with an exuberant bear hug.It was a move likely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">to rile the US, </a>India's most important geopolitical ally, which has placed pressure on New Delhi to loosen its ties with Russia over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's fear of China — a key Russian ally — means that he's willing to risk American anger to keep Putin close."New Delhi sees Moscow as an important buffer in their relationship due to Moscow's strong ties with Beijing," Sarang Shidore, an analyst at the Quincy Institute, told Business Insider."It is not in Russia's interest to have China and India at loggerheads, so it could, to a degree, act as a restraining agent."<h2 id="0ad4840d-1eb0-4f3e-a27c-3953a5a682f0">India ignores US pressure to cut Russia ties</h2>During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was among India's most important allies, with the Kremlin providing military support during India's clashes with Pakistan.They've remained close ever since, but the relationship is being tested anew in the fallout from the Ukraine war.The US has attempted to persuade India to take part <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">in its campaign to isolate</a> Russia over the Ukraine invasion — but with little success."Russia is one of India's oldest strategic partners, and New Delhi wants to maintain this relationship regardless of Russia's diplomatic isolation following the war in Ukraine," Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI.India has increased its purchase of Russian goods, including oil and fertilizer, at reduced prices after the US imposed sanctions on Russia.It continues to buy Russian armaments, with around <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/more-than-60-70-of-india-armed-forces-equipped-with-russian-origin-weapons-indian-envoy/articleshow/76903811.cms?from=mdr">70% of its weapons systems believed to be Russian</a>-made, and its military reliant on the Kremlin for spare parts and upgrades."Taking a hardline position against Russia could have both economic and security ramifications for India," said Richard Rossow, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<h2 id="a68bd311-605c-44db-97ac-44c2056c27c0">China's threat to India increases</h2>The threat from Chinese leader Xi Jinping is another key factor in Modi's determination to ignore US pressure and retain good ties with Putin.China's regional might is growing, and it's menacing India, Asia's other major economic power.In 2020, a long-simmering border dispute resulted in deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese troops. China ha<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">s bolstered its presence in the Indian Ocean</a>, and the two are jostling for influence in countries in the region.China has built stronger ties with Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, hoping a Russian victory<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> will damage US power and enhance its own global</a> might. And it's this friendship Modi's seeking to drive a wedge between."There is a real chance of future conflicts, and India would prefer to avoid Russia exporting advanced military hardware to China," said Rossow.Some Indian analysts believe that China poses a greater threat to Russia than NATO in the long term and that India can exploit those differences."The Russia-China 'alliance' may be short-term in nature, and that historical conflicts between the two, such as over their long border and under-developed natural resources in Russia's east, will resurface and trigger renewed tensions," said Morrow.But for the time being, Russia's new "no limits"<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2"> partnership has got Modi worried</a>, and he'll likely be hoping for a swift end to the Ukraine war. By maintaining good relations with Putin he's hoping he can contain the fallout."The war does not at all benefit its interests. The war also opens the door to legitimizing violations of territorial integrity, and endangers a principle that New Delhi has backed strongly," said Shidore.

Fear of China is behind India's exuberant display of friendship with Vladimir Putin 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The next US president faces a range of international challenges and potential crises.</li><li>War continues in Ukraine, tensions are rising across the Indo-Pacific region, and ongoing issues plague the Middle East.</li></ul>Just two months out from the 2024 US presidential election, former President Donald Trump and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> are working to appeal to American voters on issues like the economy, culture, women's healthcare, and education, among other domestic matters.But there's a lot going on abroad right now, and many of these problems likely aren't going away anytime soon.Regardless of who is elected to the highest office this fall, the next president will potentially face a wide range of international challenges — and potential crises — that may draw their attention beyond the US borders. Issues range from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-drills-near-taiwan-send-new-president-a-message-2024-5">China and Taiwan</a> to the Middle East to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-typhoon-military-unit-drone-operations-training-2024-9">Ukraine war</a>.Trump's first term, and his foreign policy in particular, were marked by an "America First" strategy that overhauled the US role on the global stage. On a second go around, it's unclear what that continued approach would look like, although he's recently expressed some controversial opinions on NATO, how he would have handled <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-no-win-situation-gaza-after-months-war-crush-hamas-2024-1">Israel's war in Gaza</a>, and the Ukraine war.<div type="image" title="Israeli tanks move near Gaza border as Israeli army deploys military vehicles around the Gaza Strip, Israel on October 12, 2023." height="3648" width="5472" msid="113169548" hostid="261" sizebytes="1586574"></div>Harris, on the other hand, may find international issues to be something of a<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-tim-walz-first-interview-cnn-takeaways-2024-8"> hurdle</a>. She has yet to release a platform on issues like Ukraine and Russia, China, and North Korea, and it's unclear how many, if any, of her policies will align with President Joe Biden's approach.But either Trump or Harris will likely find foreign policy at the forefront of their presidencies as the world changes — and with some conflicts on the brink or ongoing, these are some of the biggest problems that could be awaiting whoever sits in the Oval Office next.<h2 id="4a2e4a5e-66a8-4f3d-b799-b3bd2dd76299">Russia and the Ukraine war</h2><div type="image" title="Shells sit on the ground in front of an artillery unit actively firing against a blue sky, fire erupting from the barrel." height="5760" width="8640" msid="113169549" hostid="261" sizebytes="3142076"></div>Over two and a half years in, the war in Ukraine has no immediate end in sight. Casualties are abysmal, with recent Western intelligence estimates putting Russian deaths and injuries at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suffered-hundreds-thousands-casualties-in-ukraine-western-intelligence-2024-9">over 600,000</a>. Ukrainian forces have likewise suffered high losses, though details are unclear. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-kursk-invasion-russia-hasnt-eased-pressure-off-front-line-2024-9">Ukraine shockingly invaded the Kursk region in Russia</a>, but Russian forces in Ukraine continue advancing.And beyond the war itself, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-worrying-military-tech-north-korea-could-get-from-russia-2024-6">North Korean support for Russia</a>, including ammunition, missiles, and other equipment, has created a concerning partnership between America's foes.US politics have often impacted how the country supports Ukraine, engages with its allies and partners on this issue, and how it confronts Russia over the conflict. These issues, like those of the war itself, continue to linger.The US has been impactful, backing Ukraine as its largest single-nation provider of security assistance, but divisions in Congress have made sending more support difficult at times. Additionally, US flip-flopping and repeated hesitation on weapons provisions and use have often been criticized for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-vote-could-make-break-ukraine-in-war-with-russia-2024-4">hindering Ukraine</a>.Trump and Harris have expressed polar opposite views of supporting Ukraine, which adds uncertainty to Kyiv's future.Trump has said, without reason or evidence, that he'd end the Ukraine war in 24 hours and has repeatedly threatened to undermine the NATO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-nato-views-threaten-key-to-alliances-strength-article-5-2024-2">alliance's collective defense</a>. Harris has said she "will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies," citing her efforts within the Biden administration to support Kyiv as evidence.<h2 id="4fd37882-1e09-4ef6-9434-96d0b7b9b3cd">An aggressive China</h2><div type="image" title="Three amphibious ferrying vehicles sit in the blue ocean with the cityscape and mountains of New Taipei, Taiwan, in the background." height="2666" width="4000" msid="113169556" hostid="261" sizebytes="808580"></div>Issues in the Indo-Pacific region, especially related to China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, as well as other regional US allies, are likely to be important matters facing the next president as well.The Pentagon has long identified this region as its primary focus, even as other conflicts around the world often <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-has-no-aircraft-carriers-pacific-focus-middle-east-2024-8">pull its attention away</a>, and all branches of the US military have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-training-to-counter-aggressive-insidious-china-top-general-2024-2">stepped up training, exercises, and strategies</a> to deter the US' pacing challenge, China.The ongoing clashes between China and the Philippines in contested waters in the South China Sea are rooted in long-standing disputes and have the potential to escalate into conflict, which could draw the US in through its mutual defense pact.Recently, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command even suggested it's possible the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels</a> to protect them from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-air-force-harassed-us-ally-aircraft-south-china-sea-2024-8">Chinese harassment</a>, essentially putting the US in the middle of this South China Sea standoff.Another potential flashpoint is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">possible Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan</a>, which Beijing claims as its own, relentlessly seeking unification. China has repeatedly stated that unification with the autonomous island nation is inevitable, even if it must be done by force. The US military has said that China aims to be ready for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">such a fight</a> by 2027.Beijing's intimidation tactics, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-showed-how-easily-no-notice-it-can-surround-taiwan-2024-6">large military exercises</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-drills-a-test-as-well-as-show-of-force-2024-5">constant incursions in Taiwan's waters and airspace</a>, have raised concerns over how Beijing would use its military to force Taiwan into submission.Trump and Harris again differ on the US role in this region. Trump has shown less support for alliances, left ambiguity around US defense commitments to Taiwan, and said Taiwan should pay the US for its support. Harris has repeatedly called out China's aggressive behavior in the region and aligns with Biden on support for Taiwan.<h2 id="12869c13-0a07-4147-83b4-b9f50953cd03">The ongoing crises in the Middle East</h2><div type="image" title="An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles toward Israel." height="2899" width="4346" msid="113169554" hostid="261" sizebytes="610950"></div>Another major issue, like the war in Ukraine, is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-devastating-airstrikes-hamas-gaza-requesting-more-bombs-weapons-2023-10">Israel's ongoing war in Gaza</a>.Since Hamas carried out its vicious terrorist attack inside Israel on October 7, 2023, killing over 1,000 Israelis, mostly civilians, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/07/17/october-7-crimes-against-humanity-war-crimes-hamas-led-groups">Human Rights Watch</a>, the horrors that have unfolded in the region have presented various challenges for the Biden administration.Israel's war, which has involved bombing campaigns and ground operations, has killed over 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to estimates from the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. It has also sparked <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9">increased tensions</a> and, in some cases, outright conflicts with Iran and its proxies, often bringing the Middle East just to the brink of all-out war. There have been assassinations, missile barrages, firefights, and more.The Iranian-backed Houthis' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-eisenhower-planes-in-air-constantly-houthis-2024-2">attacks on commercial shipping lanes</a> in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman began in response to the war but have evolved into something more over time. The US<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-carrier-strike-groups-significant-combat-power-middle-east-2024-8"> has sent forces</a>, particularly aircraft carriers and destroyers, to the region to deter Iran and confront the Houthi rebels.Efforts to stop the Houthis have cost the US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-warships-fired-munitions-substantial-cost-fighting-houthis-2024-8">over $1 billion in weapons</a>, including surface-to-air missiles, land-attack missiles, air-to-air missiles, and air-to-surface weapons. And that figure was just for one carrier strike group and a few extra destroyers.It's unclear when these conflicts will end.Harris' language on Israel and Gaza has mostly echoed Biden's: staunch support for Israel but with repeated calls for a ceasefire. But the White House's continued issues with pro-Palestinian protestors and disagreements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are trickling into Harris' campaign.Trump showed unequivocal support for Israel in his first term and made repeated decisions that improved US-Israeli relations. He has said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-criticizes-israels-photos-of-bombings-in-gaza-2024-3">he supports Israel's war in Gaza</a> and would continue to give Israel the weapons and aid it wants; he also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/27/trump-israel-gaza-policy-donors/">told donors</a> he'd "crush" pro-Palestinian protestors.<h2 id="98b08573-8c71-486a-8dd8-7ccb85ded3e2">Tensions with North Korea</h2><div type="image" title="This undated picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 16, 2017 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un inspecting a launching drill of the medium-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 at an undisclosed location." height="1652" width="2500" msid="113169552" hostid="261" sizebytes="67288"></div>North Korea has bounced back from failed negotiations with the US and the isolation of COVID, establishing new, potentially fruitful connections with Russia through arms deals. Those ties have China engaging Pyongyang as well, leaving it, as one expert said earlier this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-sitting-pretty-as-russia-china-vie-for-attention-2024-1">"sitting pretty."</a>North Korea has been emboldened, setting in stone its nuclear status and continuing to advance its missile programs while notably strengthening its relationship with US rivals.Additionally, North Korean provocations persist amid growing concerns about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-next-north-korea-crisis-could-come-this-year-2024-5">inter-Korean conflict</a>, which would, as it did in the 1950s, inevitably draw in the US in response.Trump and Harris may be more aligned on their North Korean policy than other issues, but US policy with regard to North Korea has traditionally been a pitfall, with displays of force and demands for it to denuclearize often failing. Negotiations have also been unsuccessful.In shaping US policy, the next president could also face challenges with South Korea's president Yoon Suk Yeol, a hawk who has taken a harsher stance on North Korea than the previous administration, requiring the delicate navigation of bilateral relations.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris." height="1000" width="2000" msid="113169559" hostid="261" sizebytes="125244"></div>Both Trump and Harris find themselves running for president at a particular tense time in global politics. Amid a number of challenges at home, US attention is being pulled in a variety of directions.Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election this November will have to consider how to manage these issues along with the US position on the world stage. And their decisions could impact not just the US, but allies, partners, and adversaries as well.

This is the conflict-ridden, tension-filled world that the next US president may have to face

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's President Vladimir Putin is meeting China's Xi Jinping in Beijing. </li><li>The countries formed a "no limits" partnership in the wake of Russia's Ukraine invasion. </li></ul>China's leader, Xi Jinping,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-putin-visit-china-xi-enemy-friends-2024-5"> rolled out the red carpet</a> for his "old friend" Vladimir Putin on Thursday.As he arrived at Beijing's People's Hall, the Russian president was greeted by children waving Russian flags, hundreds of soldiers, and an orchestra playing Soviet themes.For his part, Putin lavished praise on China, whose support has been vital during Russia's invasion of Ukraine.But underneath the pageantry and rhetoric, Xi is under mounting pressure over his alliance with Putin — and he has good reason to be wary of their "no limits" partnership.The US in early May imposed new sanctions on<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-stop-china-banks-russia-ukraine-wsj-dedollarization-2024-4"> Chinese banks</a> and companies, accusing them of trading vital duel-use components with Russia for making weapons for its military in Ukraine.<div type="image" title="Putin - Xi" height="683" width="1024" msid="110181850" hostid="261" sizebytes="62066"></div>During Xi's visit to Europe last week, Western politicians called on the Chinese leader to put Putin under more pressure to end the war in Ukraine.There are signs that China is approaching the partnership with caution. It appears China's state media has toned down its rhetoric on Russia. According to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-69013520">BBC, the term "no limits" partnership is now barely used.</a>Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, told the BBC that China is downplaying its relationship with Putin: "While China supports the goal of undermining Western influence, it does not agree with some of Russia's tactics, including the threat of using nuclear weapons. China is acutely aware of the reputational costs of appearing to offer unconditional support to Russia and is continuously refining its strategies to enhance its perceived legitimacy on the global stage."Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider that from China's perspective, the "no limits" partnership, in fact, had a clear limit — the risk of major damage to China's wealth."The key limit to the 'no limits' partnership between Russia and China is that Beijing is unwilling to go so far in its support for Moscow that it would expose major Chinese firms to potential US sanctions," said Thompson, pointing out that China had not so far crossed US red lines and directly supplied Russia with weapons.Russia, he said, needs China more than China needs Russia, relying on Beijing for crucial economic and diplomatic support as it faces increasing isolation on the global stage.But China, Thompson said "is finding that its partnership with Russia can be a liability — especially in Europe, where Xi would love to wedge the Europeans away from the United States."Despite the pressure, Xi also wants to show that he's not backing down, hence the lavish welcome for Putin in Beijing. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/how-putin-and-xi-both-bent-their-nations-to-their-will-to-becomes-presidents-for-life/ar-BB1ka7sK">Chinese leader has long bonded with Putin</a> over their shared ambition to end US global dominance and sees a Russian victory in Ukraine as a way of dealing a huge blow to America's power.According to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/19eb54ba-f6f7-48ba-a586-b8a113396955">Financial Times</a>, trade between the two countries was $240bn last year, up 26% from a year earlier.Joseph Torigian, an assistant professor at the School of International Service at American University in Washington, DC., told BI that Xi has pushed back against US claims it is helping to fuel the Ukraine war — arguing its trade with Russia is entirely legitimate and that it's America that's exacerbating the conflict."Meeting with Putin now is Xi's way of showing that China will not bend to Western pressure," said Torigian.Ultimately, the Chinese leader is performing a balancing act, seeking to provide Russia with incremental but vital support in Ukraine, while not severing China's ties with wealthy Western economies that its major businesses depend on.It's a balancing act <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-jinping-olaf-scholz-china-ukraine-peace-intensifying-russia-support-2024-4">that is proving more difficult to sustain</a>, but in the long run, Xi may believe that his bet on Putin will pay off. The war in Ukraine may be turning in Russia's favor, and there are signs in the West of fatigue setting in over helping Ukraine's war effort."Beijing's partnership with Moscow might not seem as strategically counterproductive in retrospect as it has appeared since February 2022," according to Ali Wyne, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, citing the date of Russia's invasion.

Putin is putting his bromance with Xi on full display — but China has reason to be wary

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In his first term, Donald Trump ramped up military actions to counter China in the South China Sea.</li><li>Four years later, China has grown more confrontational, leaving less margin for error.</li></ul>As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to office, one of his biggest challenges could be an issue that hardly came up on the campaign trail.The South China Sea — contested waters that China says are its own and the US says belong to no single nation — has only grown as a risk factor in the years Trump was out of government.During his first term, Trump's administration took a hard line against China, stepping up its patrols and exercises in the region, and rejecting Chinese territorial claims.Since then, China has expanded its presence in the region, growing more willing to confront other countries there, including the Philippines, an ally the US is treaty-bound to defend."The margin for error has shrunk since 2016-2020," said Hunter Marston, an Asia-Pacific researcher at the Australian National University."It would now take less of a spark for a skirmish or collision to trigger a conflict involving all parties," he said.<h2 id="26704ad2-dec7-4144-a34a-9f5597d2ab7e">A vital ally</h2>Trump hasn't said how he would handle the region in his second term as president.South China Sea observers expect continuity with the Biden administration, which tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Gregory Poling, director of Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that Trump "introduces a level of personal unpredictability compared to Biden.""But there is no reason to expect any major changes to US policies on this front."<h2 id="fef0cfd6-98da-4aac-a5b1-2e1ac4fe2670">A delicate balance to strike</h2>Trump, like President Joe Biden before him, has a delicate balance to navigate.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese and Filipino coast guard vessels, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">including one</a> where swords and knives were brandished.<div type="image" title="Chinese Coast Guard holding knives and machetes as they approach Philippine troops in the Second Thomas Shoal at the disputed South China Sea" height="2374" width="3165" msid="115257414" hostid="261" sizebytes="149654"></div>Under a treaty from 1951, the US is obliged to aid the Philippines against armed attack — something China has avoided through so-called <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a> that are not technically "armed."The Filipino secretary of national defense told CBS News' <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">"60 Minutes"</a> in September that there were ongoing discussions about exactly what would prompt US intervention.Though Trump hasn't outlined a specific South China Sea plan, he could pursue his broader foreign policy mantra of "peace through strength."That brings its own risks."Unrestrained US militarization is precisely what drives Beijing's insecurity and will continue to exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea," Marston said.<h2 id="96ada877-488a-45fb-9d45-6c143317081e">An alliance at stake</h2>Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the UK's Royal United Services Institute specializing in China, said Trump would need to decide how much to commit to the region."To be globally influential, the US needs its allies," she said.Trump has often adopted a skeptical posture toward alliances he deemed unfair to the US — including its roles in helping the defense of Europe, its support for Ukraine, and its military commitments in South Korea.<div type="image" title="President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center on November 06, 2024" height="4000" width="6000" msid="115257416" hostid="261" sizebytes="444246"></div>Zeno Leoni, a lecturer at King's College London's Defense Studies Department, believes US economic interests in the South China Sea make the region an exception.A yearlong conflict in East Asia, which covers the South China Sea, could result in a 5-10% loss of US GDP, according to a 2016 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html">research report</a> by the Rand Corporation, a prominent think tank.Leoni believes the Trump administration will try to achieve balance."Both Trump's and Biden's National Security Strategy prioritized tackling the rise of China, and this is unlikely to change in the context of a more isolationist foreign policy," he said.

Trump's first term avoided a fight in the South China Sea. It's only getting harder.

<keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> are currently making a beeline for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword>, enthused by the gush of <keyword id="23496485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stimulus" source="keywords">financial stimulus</keyword> injected by the government into the Chinese economy. While this may have temporarily sent their stock markets soaring, a recent report by the <keyword id="19899824" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Bank">World Bank</keyword> notes that this might not be enough to push back the <keyword id="19904090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-slowdown" source="keywords">economic slowdown</keyword> that has already set in. China's growth rate is projected to slack further to 4.3% in 2025, down from its present rate of 4.8%. The <keyword id="19916574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="OECD" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="OECD" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="OECD">OECD</keyword> also expects the country's growth to slow down to 4.5% in 2025 Experts believe that the recent economic push by the government, which includes lowering reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% to 6.6%, lowering mortgage rates, injecting $142 billion into banks, among others, are too little to sustain long-term recovery. Notably, lowering RRR frees up $140 billion for banks to lend, while reducing mortgages and minimum down payments for housing purchases are directed to spur up the Chinese real estate segment. Per <keyword id="19906485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Goldman-Sachs" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Goldman Sachs" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Goldman Sachs">Goldman Sachs</keyword>, weak domestic demand, dwindling consumer confidence and spending and an endless real-estate crisis are some of the main reasons for the slowdown.The average Chinese citizen still grapples with job insecurity, stagnant salaries, and depreciating real estate and equity values. For instance, China's last public holiday of the year, the Golden Week, which ended on October 7 and commemorates the nation's founding, saw 2% less spending per domestic trip, as compared to pre-pandemic levels. "Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlight the still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading in the country,” the analysts at GS noted. <h2>Its all temporary</h2>The <keyword id="21360606" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hang-Seng-index" source="keywords">Hang Seng index</keyword>, which is up by 4.22% today, has been seeing a meteoric rise over the past few weeks. Inching up by a little over 24% over the last month, the Chinese markets have been seeing an significant influx of foreign investment, largely at the expense of other emerging markets like India. Foreign investors had offloaded shares worth Rs 27,142 crore between the first and third of this month, after foreign investments reached a staggering record-high of Rs 93,538 crore in September, as per NSDL data. Over the last 10 days, FIIs have constantly been net sellers, while DIIs have been net buyers. As of October 10th, DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) have put in Rs 50,183 crores in Indian markets, almost balancing out Rs 49,305.29 crore withdrawn by foreign investors. But whether this trend of FII inflow in China continues will largely depend on the fundamentals their economy, an area where India has an edge, thanks to strong confidence of domestic investors. Viram Shah, CEO of Vested Finance highlights that while the Hang Seng index's recent 26% surge over the last month has caught investors' attention, and while this bullish trend is expected to continue, driven by low Chinese stock valuations and hopes for economic improvement from government stimulus, there lies a long road ahead. "Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out $5.4 billion from Indian equities over five consecutive sessions, ending Monday, October 7. While this suggests a possible rotation of funds from India to China, how long this shift will last will depend on the Chinese government’s ability to resolve the structural economic issues. While the market rally is encouraging, more policy steps are needed to boost economic activity and confidence in China", he added.

All eyes on China: Rush of foreign investors can do little to stave off a slowdown, says World Bank

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China has ramped up its confrontations with the Philippines in the South China Sea in recent months.</li><li>Despite having a defense treaty with the Philippines, the US hasn't come to its aid.</li></ul>Tensions between the Philippines and China have heightened around contested waters in the South China Sea in recent months.But despite Chinese behavior becoming ever more aggressive, the US hasn't come to its ally's aid."My guess is that there is certainly no desire on the part of the US to be involved in any clash with China," Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, told BI.In recent months China has engaged in increasingly aggressive operations against the Philippines around the disputed islands of Sabina Shoal, Escoda Shoal, and Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.In June, Chinese coast guards armed with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">swords and knives</a> attacked Philippine vessels off the coast of Second Thomas Shoal, resulting in injuries and one soldier losing a thumb.A month later, its largest coastguard vessel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijings-monster-coastguard-ship-ramps-up-tensions-south-china-sea-2024-7">dropped anchor</a> in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone off Escoda Shoal, which the Philippines deemed an act of "intimidation."And as recently as last month, a spokesperson for the Philippine coast guard, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1828077854539874574">Jay Tarriela</a>, said China had deployed 40 vessels to block its delivery of supplies to soldiers stationed in Sabina Shoal.Under its defense treaty, the US is supposed to come to the aid of the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, if an armed attack occurs on its forces.But it has so far failed to defend the Philippines in the contested waters.<h2 id="cbefd28f-8fcc-4b29-a2e0-6291372fd659">Avoiding red lines</h2>China has grown aggressive in its encounters with neighboring countries, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vietnam-claims-a-chinese-ship-rammed-and-sank-one-of-its-fishing-boats-2019-3">ramming</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vietnam-claims-a-chinese-ship-rammed-and-sank-one-of-its-fishing-boats-2019-3">sinking</a> fishing boats, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ax-attack-philippines-south-china-sea-grab-territory-experts-2024-6">brandishing</a> weapons, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-philippines-ship-confrontation-with-water-cannons-video-2024-4">firing</a> water cannons, mostly via its coast guard.Under the Mutual Defense <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20177/volume-177-I-2315-English.pdf">Treaty,</a> signed in 1951, the US must come to the Philippines' aid in the event of an "armed attack."However, according to Timothy Heath, a RAND Corporation senior defense researcher, China is carefully avoiding triggering a US military response by "cleverly designing" operations that harm the Philippines "well below" the threshold of an armed attack.China is exploiting "gray zone" operations by deploying mostly "non-military" assets like maritime law enforcement vessels and using "nonlethal" tactics, he told BI."Moreover, these incidents are occurring in disputed waters," he added.<div type="image" title="A zoomed-in image of coast guards on a boat pointing knifes." height="3158" width="3165" msid="113289288" hostid="261" sizebytes="206970"></div>According to a 2023 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10607">report</a> by the Congressional Research Service, the US doesn't take a position on sovereignty over any of the geographic features in the South China Sea."Unless China uses armed force to attack Philippine forces or carries out aggressive actions in Philippine territory, there are limits to what sort of armed force the US is willing to employ against China," Heath added.So far, China's security gamble appears to be working well, Koh said."China is comfortable with a long game, so long as it's able to mass maritime forces in the area," he said.<div type="image" title="A Chinese Coast Guard ship fires a water cannon at Unaizah May 4, a Philippine Navy chartered vessel, conducting a routine resupply mission to troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal, on March 05, 2024 in the South China Sea." height="2667" width="4000" msid="113289291" hostid="261" sizebytes="562278"></div><h2 id="8d8e727c-c3ee-4942-92a8-e341c52de842">Time for a reset?</h2>The US routinely <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10607">deploys</a> its Navy and Air Force to conduct surveillance and reconnaissance missions near the contested waters.And last month, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">Adm. Samuel Paparo</a>, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, seemed to suggest that some limited support for the Philippines could be on the way.Speaking at a conference, he said that the "escort of one vessel to the other is an entirely reasonable option within our Mutual Defense Treaty."Alexander Lopez, a Philippine National Maritime Council spokesman, meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://mirror.pco.gov.ph/news_releases/review-of-the-mutual-defense-treaty-with-the-us-pushed/">called</a> for a review of the treaty, saying it needed to be adapted to new security challenges.Since 1951, "the strategic landscape has changed so much," he said.Heath, from RAND, suggested that this is perhaps an attempt by the Philippines to lower the threshold for US military involvement."But that could raise the risk of a US-China conflict, which is in nobody's interests," he said.Another issue is that the defense treaty does not define what constitutes an "armed attack," according to a legal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pacom.mil/Portals/55/Documents/Legal/J06%20TACAID%20-%20SIERRA%20MADRE%20AND%20SECOND%20THOMAS%20SHOAL%20V5.pdf?ver=djiPsoFllViOv6NTQLWSVw%3d%3d">analysis</a> by the US Indo-Pacific Command.According to Koh, this is a "growing concern" for the Philippines because it leaves it "open to so much interpretation."<h2 id="7d0d3c5a-3ea5-45e1-8d76-50e2be339550">Countering China's expansion</h2>Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute specializing in China's foreign relations, said the US is already supporting the Philippines in various ways.It <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-support-for-the-philippines-in-the-south-china-sea-12/">frequently</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/01/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-the-united-states-and-the-philippines/">reaffirms</a> its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3836245/track-record-and-trajectory-us-philippine-defense-ties-since-2021-remarks-by-as/">commitments</a>, and helps the Philippines in efforts to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828775660015522069">modernize</a> its military and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828653505885938023">deepen</a> partnerships with countries pursuing similar security goals in the region, she said."The US support to the Philippines has remained robust," she added, "and it is one of the most vital US alliances."However, the US' hands are being tied by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, as well as fears over escalating tensions two months before the US presidential elections, Koh said."If there's going to be a clash, it will become fodder for either party, the Democrats and Republicans, who will capitalize on it to try to win the election," he told BI.Against this backdrop, "China likely took the hint that the US isn't so committed because of distractions elsewhere," he said.He added: "It appears that the Chinese calculations might have paid off."According to Koh, because the US is seemingly unwilling to act now, the Philippines is unsure whether it will help and would rather de-escalate tensions with China.However, long term, this could mean China effectively takes over areas of territory the Philippines claims.Koh said China could hold the Philippines' future on the Second Thomas Shoal "hostage to the point that one day they'll be exhausted and have to leave.""Ultimately," Koh said, China's "aim here is to demonstrate escalation dominance to the Filipinos but, of course, not just to the Filipinos but also to demonstrate to its allies like the US that they have an overwhelming numerical advantage there and that if there's going to be war, there will be costs."For the US, those costs seem like ones it currently doesn't want to pay.

You Searched For "reasons for india china conflict" and got 12 results

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