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Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

After a steep nosedive in demand for office space rentals during 2020 and 2021, a new <keyword id="19955574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Colliers-report" source="keywords">Colliers report</keyword> has now noted that office rentals across six major <keyword id="20026638" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-cities" source="keywords">Indian cities</keyword> have finally rebounded to their <keyword id="20789690" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-pandemic-levels" source="keywords">pre-pandemic levels</keyword> and even inched around 2-8% higher. While some cities like <keyword id="19900176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hyderabad" source="keywords">Hyderabad</keyword> and Pune had already gone beyond their pre-pandemic rental levels as early as 2022, <keyword id="19895037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bengaluru" source="keywords">Bengaluru</keyword> and Chennai had followed suit a year later in 2023. The last to join the bandwagon were <keyword id="19906633" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Delhi-NCR" source="keywords">Delhi NCR</keyword> and Mumbai, which finally managed to breach their pre-pandemic levels in 2024. However, both Delhi and Mumbai recorded the highest jump in average rentals at 8% each, followed by Mumbai and Chennai, which saw hikes of about 5-6% during this period. The recovery in demand for office spaces, which kicked off in 2022, has stayed steady since. Arpit Mehrotra, Managing Director, Office Services, India, Colliers notes that going ahead, the annual increase in average quoted rentals at the end of 2024 is likely to be higher for certain cities like Delhi NCR and Pune, as compared to other markets. "Moreover, as demand scale-up in Indian <keyword id="20107243" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commercial-real-estate" source="keywords">commercial real estate</keyword> solidifies, notwithstanding unforeseen events, annual space take up to the tune of 60 million sq ft is likely to be the new norm in the medium-term," he added. <h2>Prime location takes the cake</h2>Even within these cities, the growth of rental demand in certain micro-markets, which are located at prime locations, saw greater than the 2-8% average growth. For instance, in Delhi NCR, Gold Course Extension Road, Noida Expressway, and Cyber City saw up to a 25% rise in rentals. In Bengaluru, which saw around 2% <keyword id="22329786" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rental-growth" source="keywords">rental growth</keyword> overall, Whitefield and ORR (Outer Ring Road) commanded a rental premium, with rents here surging by as much as 5-10% between 2019 and 2024. IOMR Zone 1 in Chennai and Bandra-Kurla Complex, Goregaon, and JVLR in Mumbai saw rents surge by around 10-20% from pre-pandemic levels between 2019 and 2024. In contrast, rental rates in Chennai and Mumbai grew at around 5% and 6%, respectively. In Hyderabad, SBD, or the Secondary Business District, which comprises of Gachibowli, Hitec City, and more, saw rentals surge between 5-10% between 2019 and 2024, as opposed to the 5% cumulative rental growth experienced by Hyderabad. In Pune, CBD and Kharadi saw rentals inch up by 5-10%, whereas the whole of Pune only saw their rentals grow by around 5% during the past 6 years. Mumbai and Delhi have also seen a dip in <keyword id="23656583" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vacancy-levels" source="keywords">vacancy levels</keyword> since 2019. While this has dropped to 20% in Delhi at present, Mumbai ranks the lowest in terms of empty office spaces at 10.7%. In both these cities, demand for office spaces has consistently outpaced supply, which explains the low vacancies. In contrast, in Hyderabad, where supply continues to trump demand, current vacancy levels have gone as high as 25%. Going ahead, the Colliers report also estimates that average office rentals can witness up to 10% annual growth across key Indian cities by the end of this year.

Office rents across all major Indian cities surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2024, notes a new report

The residential market shows a positive outlook, with 51% of stakeholders predicting higher sales over the next six months. However, a notable 24% expect stability, while 25% predict a potential decrease, reflecting a balanced yet cautious sentiment, as per a recent <keyword id="19895043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Knight-Frank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Knight Frank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Knight Frank">Knight Frank</keyword> report. The outlook for residential launches is also positive, with 61% expecting an increase, suggesting continued demand. A more tempered view is held by 20% of respondents who expect stability, and 19% foresee a decrease in launches. The Indian <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword> continues to reflect a positive outlook for the near future, though with a more cautious approach. In terms of pricing, 63% of stakeholders expect a rise, but 36% anticipate stable prices, and a very small minority predict a decline. G Hari Babu, National President, National Real Estate Development Council (<keyword id="20429653" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="naredco" source="keywords">NAREDCO</keyword>), said, "The residential and office markets continue to show notable activity, signaling ongoing growth and opportunity. Developers and other key stakeholders, including banks and financial institutions, are maintaining a positive outlook." He added, "This suggests that while there may be short-term challenges, the sector is well-positioned to adapt and thrive. The continued optimism and activity in the market highlight the sector's ability to sustain its momentum and drive forward, amidst changing conditions." The <keyword id="22822547" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="office-leasing-market" source="keywords">office leasing market</keyword> shows signs of strong recovery, with 63% of respondents predicting an increase in leasing activity, driven by positive business sentiments and <keyword id="21313740" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-revival" source="keywords">economic revival</keyword>. However, 24% expect stability, and 13% foresee a decline. New office supply also remains a point of interest, with 47% expecting an increase, while 29% anticipate stability, and 24% forecast a decrease. Furthermore, 67% of stakeholders expect office rents to rise, signaling confidence in the market's ongoing growth, even as 27% anticipate stable rents and 7% expect a decrease. The <keyword id="20635920" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="future-sentiment-score" source="keywords">Future Sentiment Score</keyword>, which measures stakeholders' outlook over the next six months, saw adjustments across various regions. The North Zone score slightly decreased from 65 in Q1 2024 to 63 in Q2 2024, though it remains firmly optimistic. The South Zone witnessed a more significant drop from 76 to 65, signaling a moderated outlook. In the East Zone, the score fell from 77 to 65, largely influenced by the discontinuation of the 2% stamp duty cut. The West Zone also saw moderation, with the score dipping from 73 to 66, though it too, remains optimistic. The overall Developer Future Sentiment score decreased from 72 to 61, reflecting a more guarded approach. Developers, while cautious, continue to remain optimistic due to strong sales since early 2023. On the other hand, the Non-Developer Future Sentiment core, which includes financial institutions and PE funds, also moderated from 73 to 68. This shift indicates stakeholders' careful consideration of macroeconomic concerns. Optimism in India's broader economic scenario remains strong, with 59% of respondents expecting an improvement, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience. However, 24% foresee stability, and 17% predict a decline, underscoring global economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, 51% of respondents anticipate increased funding availability for real estate investments, reflecting continued confidence in the financial sector's support for the real estate market. Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director of Knight Frank India Pvt Ltd, noted, "As we transition through 2024, a host of factors are playing out globally. The global economic landscape shows resilience despite ongoing challenges. Inflation rates are gradually aligning with central bank targets, enabling a more supportive monetary policy. India, benefiting from stable post-election conditions, remains a strong growth beacon." He added, "Domestic consumption is robust, supported by consumer loans, though there are some signs of growth moderation. Food inflationary pressures persist, but are converging overall towards price stability targets. With a projected GDP growth rate of 7.2% for FY 2025, India's outlook remains positive. An effective monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India has helped sustain growth with price stability, positioning India as one of the fastest-growing large economies globally." The Current Sentiment score, which reflects stakeholders' view of the market compared to six months ago, moderated from a decadal high of 72 in Q1 2024 to 65 in Q2 2024. This suggests a more measured outlook as stakeholders navigate evolving global economic conditions. Despite the dip, the score remains indicative of optimism. Looking forward, the Future Sentiment index also adjusted from 73 in Q1 2024 to 65 in Q2 2024, signaling a positive yet more conservative outlook for the near term. While macroeconomic uncertainties may dampen enthusiasm, stakeholders continue to show confidence in the sector's resilience and adaptability.

Despite budget provisions, residential housing market will see sales growth, notes recent report by Knight Frank

Leading multiplex operator <keyword id="19986619" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="PVR-INOX" source="keywords">PVR INOX</keyword> plans to close 70 <keyword id="22996404" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="non-performing-screens" source="Orion">non-performing screens</keyword> in FY25 and will go for potential <keyword id="20069509" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetisation" source="keywords">monetisation</keyword> of non-core <keyword id="20478737" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-assets" source="keywords">real estate assets</keyword> in prime locations such as Mumbai, Pune, and Vadodara, according to its latest annual report. Though the company will add 120 new screens in FY25, it will also close almost 60-70 non-performing screens, as it chases for <keyword id="738150" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="profitable-growth" source="Orion">profitable growth</keyword>. About 40 per cent of new screens addition will come from South India, where it will have a "strategic focus" on this lesser penetrated region as per its medium to long-term strategy. Moreover, <keyword id="799" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PVR" source="Orion">PVR</keyword> <keyword id="6407732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="INOX" source="Orion">INOX</keyword> is redefining its growth strategy by transitioning towards a capital-light growth model to reduce its capex on new screens addition by 25 to 30 per cent in the current fiscal. Now, PVR INOX will partner with developers to jointly invest in new screen capex by shifting towards a franchise-owned and company-operated (FOCO) model. It is also evaluating monetisation of owned real estate assets, as the leading film exhibitor aims to become "net-debt free" company in the foreseeable future. "This involves a potential monetisation of our non-core real estate assets in prime locations such as Mumbai, Pune, and Vadodara," said Managing Director Ajay Kumar Bijli and Executive Director Sanjeev Kumar addressing the shareholders of the company. In terms of growth, they said the focus is to speed up expansion in underrepresented markets. "Our company's medium to long-term strategy will involve expanding the number of screens in South India due to the region's high demand for films and comparatively low number of multiplexes in comparison to other regions. We estimate that approximately 40 per cent of our total screen additions will come from South India," they said. During the year, PVR INOX opened 130 new screens across 25 cinemas and also shut down 85 under-performing screens across 24 cinemas in line with its strategy of profitable growth. "This rationalisation is part of our ongoing efforts to optimise our portfolio. The number of closures seems high because we are doing it for the first time as a combined entity," said Bijli. PVR INOX's net debt in FY24 was at Rs 1,294 crore. The company had reduced its net debt by Rs 136.4 crore last fiscal, said CFO Gaurav Sharma. "Even though we are cutting down on capital expenditure, we are not compromising on growth and will open almost 110-120 screens in FY25. At the same time, not wavering from our goal of profitable growth, we will exit almost 60-70 screens that are non-performing and a drag on our profitability," he said. In FY24, PVR's revenue was at Rs 6,203.7 crore and it reported a loss of Rs 114.3 crore. This was the first full year of operations of the merged entity PVR INOX. Over the progress on merger integration, Bijli said "80-90 per cent of the targeted synergies was achieved in 2023-24" In FY24, PVR INOX had a 10 per cent growth in ticket prices and 11 per cent in F&amp;B spend per head, which was "higher-than-normal". This was primarily on account of merger synergies on the integration of PVR and INOX, said Sharma. "Going forward, the increase in ticket prices and food and beverage spending per head will be more in line with the long-term historical growth rates," he said. PVR INOX aims to restore pre-pandemic operating margins, enhancing return on capital, and driving free cash flow generation. "We aim to boost revenue by increasing footfalls through innovative customer acquisition and retention," said Sharma adding "We are also driving cost efficiencies by renegotiating rental contracts, closing under-performing screens, adopting a leaner organisational structure, and controlling overhead costs."

PVR INOX to close 70 non-performing screens in FY25, plan monetisation of real estate assets

<keyword id="24068881" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Equity-investments-in-Indian-real-estate" source="keywords">Equity investments in Indian real estate</keyword> may rise 49% to $11 billion this calendar year amid strong demand for properties, according to CII and CBRE. In the 2023 calendar year, the equity investments in real estate stood at $7.4 billion. Industry body CII and real estate consultant CBRE on Wednesday released a joint report titled 'Leading the Charge: Crafting the Skylines of Tomorrow' at the annual CII Realty 2024 conclave. Equity capital inflows touched $8.9 billion between January and September, registering a 46% year-on-year growth. "Overall equity investments in 2024 in the real estate sector are set to hit a new record surpassing $10 billion for the first time," the report said. With a resurgence in investment inflows in built-up office assets and a strong acquisition pipeline for land in the residential sector, the overall equity investments in 2024 would be in the $10-11 billion range. During January-September, institutional and collective vehicle investors accounted for nearly 40% of the overall investments. Developer companies led the total capital inflows with more than 41% share in this period. Domestic investors (predominantly developers) invested nearly USD 6 billion during the first nine months of the calendar year, dominating the overall capital inflows with an almost 65% share. In comparison, foreign investors contributed about $3.1 billion during the same timeframe. Notably, North American and Singaporean investors were the significant contributors, representing about 85% of all foreign capital inflows. Anshuman Magazine, Chairman &amp; CEO, India, South-East Asia, Middle East &amp; Africa, CBRE, said, "Projection for 2024 equity investments between $10-11 billion, highest-ever, underscores continued investor interest in the growing <keyword id="23870227" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-market-in-India" source="keywords">real estate market in India</keyword>." With SEBI's SM-REIT framework, he said, smaller but high-quality assets in Tier-II markets would also present new avenues for strategic capital deployment. "We believe this regulatory support will add much-needed transparency, enabling a more diversified investment base and encouraging institutional participation across these markets," Magazine said. Going ahead, he said this growing diversification will not only solidify India's real estate sector but also pave the way for future growth across emerging asset classes.

Equity investments in Indian real estate may rise 49% to record $11 billion this year, says CII-CBRE report

The <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> presented by <keyword id="20426375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister-Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman">Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> has projected a <keyword id="19997196" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-rate" source="keywords">growth rate</keyword> of 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent further solidifying <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s strong <keyword id="20018805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic-fundamentals" source="keywords">macroeconomic fundamentals</keyword>, <keyword id="20060150" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CBRE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="CBRE" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="CBRE">CBRE</keyword> Chairman and CEO-India, South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa, <keyword id="20177586" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anshuman-Magazine" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anshuman Magazine" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Anshuman Magazine">Anshuman Magazine</keyword> said on Monday. The country's economic performance in FY'24 surpassed expectations, registering a robust growth rate of 8.2 per cent. "This momentum is noteworthy considering three out of the past four quarters exceeded the 8 per cent growth mark," he said in his reaction to the Economic Survey. <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> is anticipated to moderate around 4.5 per cent and it reflects a 'well-balanced' economic environment, he said. "The survey acknowledges the <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword>, particularly the residential segment, as a significant driver of <keyword id="20018651" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-investment" source="keywords">private investment</keyword>. The survey emphasizes the importance of continued collaboration between central and state governments, along with the private sector, to sustain this momentum," Magazine said in a statement. India's post-pandemic recovery has been orderly and expansive and it is testament to the underlying resilience of the economy, he said. "Looking ahead to FY'25, several indicators such as robust private consumption, increased bank lending activity and improved corporate capital expenditure indicate towards a good year ahead," he added.

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SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

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India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

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Office rents across all major Indian cities surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2024, notes a new report

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Despite budget provisions, residential housing market will see sales growth, notes recent report by Knight Frank

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PVR INOX to close 70 non-performing screens in FY25, plan monetisation of real estate assets

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Equity investments in Indian real estate may rise 49% to record $11 billion this year, says CII-CBRE report

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Economic Survey pegs growth at 6.5-7%; solidifying India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals: CBRE

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