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In response to higher-than-expected tax revenue and a record surplus transfer from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Indian government is considering an 8-10% increase in <keyword id="20018917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-expenditure" source="keywords">capital expenditure</keyword> (capex) for the fiscal year 2025, according to Pantomath Group's quarterly report, "Market Kaleidoscope: Quarterly Market Insights." This adjustment could raise the capex from the previously allocated Rs 11.11 lakh crore, aiming to bolster infrastructure and economic growth. This fiscal boost comes as India reaches a historic financial milestone. The total market capitalization of all stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (<keyword id="19895774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE" source="keywords">BSE</keyword>) briefly surpassed $5 trillion for the first time, placing India among global giants such as the US, China, Japan, and Hong Kong. India's primary market is set for a dynamic period, with 55 companies planning to raise over Rs 68,000 crore through Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). The first half of FY2025 has already seen 35 mainboard IPOs, collectively raising around Rs 32,000 crore with an average subscription rate of 61 times. The Indian market maintained a positive outlook in the first quarter of FY2025, driven by strong Q4FY24 earnings, favorable economic data, and positive global cues. Despite early June volatility following the 2024 <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> election results, market sentiment improved with the BJP securing 272 seats and a total of 292 seats for the NDA with allied support. This political stability under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership is expected to promote long-term economic growth, with a focus on infrastructure, electric mobility, startup support, power distribution, digital privacy, and healthcare initiatives. Corporate India's performance in the March quarter of FY2024 met expectations, showing double-digit growth in net profit and single-digit revenue increases. Non-lending companies experienced moderate operating margin expansion due to favorable commodity prices and cost controls. The peaking interest rates and continuity of <keyword id="19978691" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-policies" source="keywords">government policies</keyword> are anticipated to support healthy corporate growth in FY2025. <h2>Growth to continue</h2>The government's push for increased <keyword id="20068449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ethanol-production" source="keywords">ethanol production</keyword> targets a 20% blending by 2026, benefiting ethanol-heavy sugar companies and promoting biofuel goals. The real estate market is projected to grow significantly, requiring Rs 14 lakh crore in debt financing from 2024 to 2026. This growth will positively impact the banking and financial sectors. Major telecom operators have raised tariffs post-election, potentially improving sector financials and paving the way for sector re-rating. Major cement players are expanding through acquisitions, with an expected 6-7% compounded growth and market dominance by the top five players by March 2025. FMCG Companies expect recovery in rural business due to factors like a normal monsoon, robust crop yields, and government measures, maintaining robust rural demand. The potential roll-out of the FAME 3 Scheme to support <keyword id="19963112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicle-sales" source="keywords">electric vehicle sales</keyword> is anticipated, with a budgetary allocation of around Rs 10,000 crore. Sectors such as auto, cement, defence, railways, consumer durables, energy, and banking are expected to outperform. Lagging sectors like IT and specialty chemicals offer value-buying opportunities at lower levels. The structural bull market for Indian equity is supported by strong domestic fundamentals and government reforms, with a positive medium- to long-term market outlook. Globally, the US market showed resilience, except for the Dow Jones. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 5.25-5.50%, awaiting inflation to move towards the 2% target before considering rate cuts. The US GDP grew at 1.4% annually in Q1 2024, with mixed economic indicators highlighting both strengths and challenges. The Indian <keyword id="19926041" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IPO-market" source="keywords">IPO market</keyword> has seen significant growth, with a surge in companies seeking to list shares and a rise in capital raised. The first half of 2025 saw strong retail investor participation, reflecting confidence in India's growth prospects. Mahavir Lunawat, Managing Director, Pantomath Capital Advisors Private Limited, said, "Favourable market conditions, high liquidity, a conducive growth environment with stable interest rates, and benign inflation have facilitated a boom in the IPO market. The IPO market will experience a stronger pull post-budget. India is set to become the new equity funding frontier for global corporations." He further added. "We are on the brink of sustained, long-term momentum in the IPO market, with this year potentially becoming the best for IPOs. India's solid macroeconomic environment and promising growth prospects create an ideal backdrop for this vibrant IPO market. Additionally, there is robust participation from both domestic institutional investors and retail investors." With the Indian government's potential capex increase and the robust primary market activity, the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> is poised for sustained growth. The upcoming period is expected to see heightened market activity, further IPOs, and economic stability, creating a conducive environment for investment and development.

India may boost FY25 capex by 8-10% amid surging revenues and record RBI surplus, says Market Kaleidoscope report

A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

New Delhi: The <keyword id="20072894" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-economy" source="keywords">Rural economy</keyword> of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> has emerged as a significant driver of <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>, outpacing urban areas largely due to increased <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> in the recent quarters, highlighted a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword>, a financial service company. "<keyword id="20109648" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-india" source="keywords">Rural India</keyword> continues to outpace urban areas in growth, largely due to a significant rise in government spending in rural regions in the last quarter," said the report. For the coming months, the report stated that the growth trend in the rural economy is expected to continue, although a moderation in growth may occur. It also added that the favourable monsoon conditions and improved sowing data are anticipated to sustain the upward trajectory in <keyword id="19931574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-demand" source="keywords">rural demand</keyword>, providing a buffer against potential economic uncertainties. "We expect this growth to moderate following the elections, favourable monsoon conditions and improved sowing data should sustain the upward trend in rural demand". The report also highlighted that the government's ambitious capital expenditure plans, amounting to Rs 11.1 trillion, are expected to stimulate infrastructure development, further enhancing rural economic prospects The rural economy plays a crucial role in the development of the country because a majority of the population still resides in rural areas. As per the Economic Survey of 2022-2023 around 65 per cent of India's population lived in rural areas in 2021. The report also highlighted that India stands out among emerging economies due to its strong GDP growth. Last year, India grew by more than 8 per cent, and the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> expects a 7.2 per cent growth rate for FY25. The financial outlook is positive, with efforts to cut the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent. The report also noted that India's credit rating may improve because of the strong tax revenue and a large dividend from the RBI which will lead to a lower fiscal deficit than expected. "The fiscal outlook appears promising, with continued focus on reducing the fiscal deficit toward the 4.5 per cent target. Strong tax collections and a substantial RBI dividend may enable the fiscal deficit to come in lower than expected, which could potentially lead to an improved sovereign rating" said the report.

Rural economy is driving India's growth, Govt capex in infra will stimulate it: Anand Rathi report

<keyword id="21354159" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-government-bonds" source="keywords">Indian Government Bonds</keyword> are set to be included in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index, <keyword id="20036608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emerging-Market" source="keywords">Emerging Market</keyword> (GBI-EM) from June 28. The inclusion will take place over a period of 10 months starting June 28, 2024, through to March 31, 2025. India will have a 1% weightage in the <keyword id="19967624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JPMorgan" source="keywords">JPMorgan</keyword> Emerging Market (EM) Bond index, which will gradually rise to 10% over a 10-month period, at an inclusion rate of about 1% weight per month. The inclusion is estimated to bring $20-25 billion of inflows into the Indian bond market. However, India's index-eligible bonds have already attracted $10 billion since the inclusion was announced in September last year. On September 21, 2023, Global index provider JPMorgan announced that it would include Indian government's bonds in its emerging market indices. Only Indian government bonds issued by the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) under the <keyword id="12313402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fully-Accessible-Route" source="Orion">Fully Accessible Route</keyword> (FAR) will be included in the indices. All FAR-designated IGBs maturing after December 31, 2026, will be eligible to be included in the JPMorgan Emerging Market (EM) Bond index. In the post-monetary policy press conference on June 7, RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said the central bank is not worried about the big <keyword id="20072947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-inflows" source="keywords">foreign fund inflows</keyword> from global bond inclusion. "The RBI has a number of instrumentalities to manage the flows. We have managed it in the past and we will manage it in future also. No worries on that," Das said. Experts believe the index inclusion-related heavy flows is likely to boost demand for Indian government securities in the current fiscal, once short-term liquidity issues in certain papers get sorted. Vishal Gupta, Co-founder of IndiaBonds.com says the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan Index is a watershed moment for the <keyword id="22201110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-income-markets" source="keywords">fixed-income markets</keyword> in India. "This compulsorily puts Indian bond markets on the radar of global bond investors and although initial investments are supposed to be to the tune of $25-30 billion, index inclusion paves the way for this number to keep growing in the next few years," said Vishal Gupta. Gupta further added that it is important to grow the investor base for any market, and index inclusion helps in expanding the number of players, which further benefits everyone in the form of additional market liquidity. "Global investors have been looking to allocate capital to emerging markets given their reluctance to invest in other large countries like Russia or China in the past couple of years. Hence, the timing of this index inclusion is also almost perfect. I reckon investments will start via government bonds initially, but filter into AAA to lower credit ratings as well in the years to come", he continued.

Indian government bonds to be included JP Morgan Govt bond Index from June 28

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) is likely to transfer approximately Rs 1000 billion to the <keyword id="19900449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government" source="keywords">government</keyword> IN <keyword id="19965933" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FY25" source="keywords">FY25</keyword> according to a report by Union Bank of India. The report highlights that RBI is anticipated to maintain a robust <keyword id="20047030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dividend" source="keywords">dividend</keyword> payout for the <keyword id="20093202" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-year" source="keywords">fiscal year</keyword> 2025 (FY25). This projection represents a slight increase from Rs 874 billion transferred in the previous fiscal year. "The government has budgeted the FY25 dividend for RBI and PSU banks &amp; financial institutions at INR 1020bn, vis-a-vis INR 1044bn in FY24. In our view, a positive surprise is likely, similar to last year when initial budget estimate for overall dividend was only INR 480bn" said the report. Analysts in the report predict a potential positive surprise, akin to the previous fiscal year, when the initial budget estimate for dividends was significantly lower at INR 480 billion. Despite several factors influencing RBI's dividend calculation, such as <keyword id="21195402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-earnings" source="keywords">interest earnings</keyword> and foreign exchange (FX) gains, analysts predict a continuation of strong dividend figures. The majority of RBI's balance sheet, approximately 70 percent, consists of foreign currency assets, with another 20 per cent in domestic government bonds. Interest earnings from these securities are expected to range from Rs 1.5-1.7 trillion. Additionally, interest from liquidity operations has increased RBI's earnings, particularly as the banking system returned to a deficit mode from September 2023. While income gains of RBI from FX (Forex) sales decreased slightly due to lower sales volumes, they are expected to remain substantial despite a rise in the weighted average cost of <keyword id="20102143" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserves" source="keywords">reserves</keyword>. Moreover, a decline in provisions likely contributed to boosting RBI's dividend. Provisions for reserves, as per the Economic Capital Framework outlined by the Jalan committee, saw a rise in the contingency fund provision due to increased balance sheet growth. The impact of the RBI dividend announcement on markets may be limited in the near term, especially with ongoing elections potentially delaying government spending. However, if the surplus balance is utilized for activities like G-Sec buybacks, it could support the shorter end of the G-Sec curve. Overall, analysts maintain a positive outlook on longer-duration G-Secs due to favorable demand-supply dynamics. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-up-8-5g-smartphones-account-for-over-70-of-shipments/articleshow/110002512.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-up-8-5g-smartphones-account-for-over-70-of-shipments/articleshow/110002512.cms" target="_blank">Indian smartphone market up 8%, 5G smartphones account for over 70% of shipments</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/ipl-decoded-highest-individual-scores-in-ipl-2024-so-far-from-stoinis-to-kohli/slidelist/110008351.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/ipl-decoded-highest-individual-scores-in-ipl-2024-so-far-from-stoinis-to-kohli/slidelist/110008351.cms" target="_blank">IPL Decoded: Highest individual scores in IPL 2024 so far, from Stoinis to Kohli</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/apple-and-samsung-dominate-the-top-selling-smartphones-in-q1-2024/slidelist/109977094.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/apple-and-samsung-dominate-the-top-selling-smartphones-in-q1-2024/slidelist/109977094.cms" target="_blank">Apple and Samsung dominate the top-selling smartphones in Q1 2024</a>

RBI likely to transfer ₹1 trillion to government in FY25

Amid questions on the depleting <keyword id="20776807" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="loan-to-deposit-ratio" source="keywords">loan-to-deposit ratio</keyword> in <keyword id="19895091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banks" source="keywords">Indian banks</keyword>, a recent report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword> suggests that the loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio is likely to subside on its own in the coming months. The debate on loan-to-deposit ratio (LD), particularly concerning sluggish <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> and potential risks to <keyword id="20089808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stability" source="keywords">financial stability</keyword> is raised by even the finance minister and the <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor" source="keywords">RBI governor</keyword>. However, the report notes that on closer examination, the situation may not be as alarming as it seems. As of 9th August, 2024 the Indian <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>'s loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio stood at 77.2 %, which is slightly below its recent peak of 78.2 % on 22nd March 2024, and its all-time high of 78.8 % in September 2013. The report stated that typically a rising LD ratio is indicative of a tightness in the banking sector, potentially indicating overheating. A lower LD indicates that the bank is aggressive in its credit disbursement practises, which could be risky. It highlighted that an analysis of the sector's transactions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), along with recent trends in the weighted average call rate (WACR), suggests that the current rise in the LD ratio does not indicate tightness, which is why there is no immediate cause of concern. In fact, the report added that the concern over weak deposit growth may be overstated. Historical data show that bank deposits grew at an average rate of 9.5 % during the pre-COVID period (January 2015 to February 2020) and 10.4 % in the post-COVID period (March 2020 to August 2024). Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also urged state-run banks to enhance deposit mobilization through attractive offers and focusing on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Loan-to-deposit ratio pegs the total deposits received by the bank against the loans it has offered. It helps in understanding how liquid the bank is. The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is a financial metric that compares a bank's total loans to its total deposits. It's used to assess a bank's liquidity and credit risk, and to inform lending and deposit-taking decisions The report said while the exact measures are unclear, the deposit growth could potentially be increased by making other asset classes less attractive through taxation or interest rates, or by boosting fiscal spending to increase net credit to the government. In its forecast, the report noted that private banks will witness a moderation in their <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword>, while public sector banks will maintain a healthy credit growth rate. "Our analysis suggests that deposit growth could be raised by either making other asset classes unattractive (through taxation and/or interest rate) or increasing the growth in net credit to the government by pushing fiscal spending higher" the report added. Alternatively, policymakers might consider curtailing loan growth to lower the LD ratio. However, this could slow deposit growth, particularly if corporate credit growth remains weak. Encouraging savers to shift investments from other assets to bank deposits could also be an option, but this carries risks of overreach and potential damage to economic confidence. Das had also flagged the excessive growth, or froth developing in the personal loan space. Notably, while credit growth in unsecured personal loans like credit cards continues to decline, it remains elevated at 23.3% as of June 2024. However, this is a significant reduction from 34.2% witnessed in November 2023. As fiscal spending increases, bank credit to the government is likely to grow, which should elevate deposits and broad money supply. The report said "However, the extent of foreign capital inflows and the RBI's policy for managing these inflows remain uncertain". Last month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had also addressed this issue in the 50th meeting of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee). Per him, deposit mobilisation has been lagging credit growth for some time now. This may potentially expose the system to structural liquidity issues. "While there could be a debate regarding ‘deposits funding loans’ vis-à-vis ‘loans funding deposits’, the current regulatory concern stems from the fact that there could be structural changes happening which banks need to recognise and, accordingly, devise their strategies. Households and consumers who traditionally leaned on banks for parking or investing their savings are increasingly turning to capital markets and other financial intermediaries", Das said. Per him, while bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of financial assets owned by households, their share has been declining consistently, since households are now increasingly allocating their savings to mutual funds, insurance funds, pension funds and other avenues.

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

You Searched For "rbi capital government" and got 7 results

India may boost FY25 capex by 8-10% amid surging revenues and record RBI surplus, says Market Kaleidoscope report

ANI

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

ANI

Rural economy is driving India's growth, Govt capex in infra will stimulate it: Anand Rathi report

ANI

Indian government bonds to be included JP Morgan Govt bond Index from June 28

ANI

RBI likely to transfer ₹1 trillion to government in FY25

ANI

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

Ira Alok Puranik

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Ira Alok Puranik

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