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Indian banks are expected to have steady growth in earnings and returns over the next 3–4 years, according to a recent report by Jefferies. It expects a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in loan growth for banks between FY24 and FY27, helmed by a supportive environment and expected adjustments in interest rates. "We expect steady growth in earnings and stable returns, Over FY24-27, the banks we cover should see 13% CAGRin loans We factor 25-50 bps cut in rates, &amp; depending on timing, NIMs will move," the report said. Depending on the timing, these rate cuts could impact banks' <keyword id="20076541" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-interest-margins" source="keywords">net interest margins</keyword> (NIMs), which measure the difference between interest income generated and interest paid to depositors. The report also notes that banks' net interest income (NII), a critical metric that is reflective of how much a bank earns from its lending, could grow at a steady 12% CAGR, which would support overall earnings growth. <h2>Rate cuts probable next year</h2>Per SBI Mutual Fund's monthly outlook for November 2024, while markets were initially speculating possible rate reductions in December this year or February next year these chances now stand dampened due to two reasons. First, elevated CPI numbers in September, which stood at a nine-month high, underlined the stickiness of food inflation. Secondly, RBI governor Das recently highlighted his hawkish stance at a conference, stating that "rate cuts at this stage would be premature and risky’. The report further adds that February 2025, or even April, would be a better time to discuss repo rate cuts in India. Even <keyword id="19985925" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-credit-growth" source="keywords">bank credit growth</keyword> has continued to outpace deposit growth for two years now. However, they seem to be inching closer in the recent past. For instance, in October 2024, while bank credit growth remained at 12.7%, the deposit growth rate followed closely at 11.8%. This also means that banks are witnessing an elevated bank credit-to-deposit ratio, standing at 77% in October. <h2>Risks in unsecured lending </h2>However, Jefferies noted some areas of caution that could influence growth in other revenue streams, particularly fees. Growth in fees may be at risk due to expected declines in the disbursal of unsecured loans, which generally carry higher interest rates and generate higher fees for banks. October saw stress and defaults rising in the unsecured lending space, prompting the RBI to intervene. As a result, unsecured loans by banks have only grown by 12.1%, the lowest since the pandemic. Despite these risks, the report expects banks' return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to remain healthy, underscoring the sector's stable profitability potential. The report also highlights that while the Nifty Banks index has risen by 19% over the past year, it has still underperformed the broader Nifty index, which delivered 27% returns in the same period. BSE Bankex has been along similar lines, generating returns worth 19% over one year. While the Nifty banks' index has a YTD (yield to date) of 7.63%, it continues to trail Nifty's YTD of 11.30%

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Global markets are looking ahead to the US Fed's meeting scheduled for Thursday, November 7, 2024, expecting the Jerome Powell-chaired FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to slash interest rates further by 0.25%. In September this year, the Fed surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a massive 0.5%, for the first time in 4 years. As per the <keyword id="23807624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-Fed-Watch-Tool" source="keywords">CME Fed Watch Tool</keyword>, there is now a 99.5% chance that the Fed will reduce the interest rates by around 25 basis points, bringing it within the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Only 0.5% believe that the Fed might leave the rates unchanged, within their present range of 4.75% to 5%. As for the Fed's December meeting, scheduled for December 18, per the CME Fed Watch tool, 79.5% believe that interest rates would be in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Another 20.4% believe that yields will remain in the range of 4.5% and 4.75%. Only 0.1% see the interest rates staying within their current range of 4.75% to 5% <h2>No major changes anticipated</h2>However, it is unlikely that this quarter-point rate cut would bring about any significant financial changes in the US economy. The Fed is again expected to bring down the interest rates by another 25 basis points in their December meeting. This would imply a total rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of this year. So, why is the Fed not bringing down interest rates by 50 basis points in one fell swoop this time around? Why wait till December to bring down the rates by another 25 basis points? Experts believe that it could stoke inflation, which has seen a sharp decline in the recent past. A steep slash of borrowing rates could accelerate borrowing activity and inject significant cash into the economy at once, pushing up inflation. Per the Fed's recent projections, a total of 4 rate cuts are anticipated in 2025. On a YoY basis, inflation in the US dipped to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target of 2%. With inflationary pressures reined in, the economy growing at the rate of 2.8% during the third quarter of FY24, and the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the markets see much merit in bringing interest rates down. This is especially important to boost spending, particularly in sectors such as housing and automobiles, where even a slight tinkering in interest rates can drastically impact the amount and volume of loans taken to own them. Data suggests that during Trump's presidency tenure, i.e., between 2017 and 2021, inflation averaged at a rate of 1.9% a year. During the Biden administration, where Kamala Harris served as VP, the inflation is on track to average around 5% a year. Shrisha Acharya, Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance, also notes that the results of the impending US elections, which are likely to be declared tomorrow, will impact the yields and stock markets. "The Trump card, coupled with potential Republican control, could mean higher bond yields due to anticipated increases in deficit spending, inflation risks, and potential tax cuts. This could very well jiggle the confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and thus start a chain effect that will possibly impact global market stability and lead to short-term volatility. On the other hand, Harris’ rise has been met with a stock market rally glued on expectations of economic stability and controlled inflation, with more predictable fiscal policy likely to help in a soft landing," he explains.

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

On Wednesday, the US <keyword id="19904332" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve" source="keywords">Federal Reserve</keyword> slashed the <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> by a mammoth 50-basis points. In response, markets across the world, including the Nifty and Sensex, scaled record highs. While Nifty was up by around 280 points, breaching the 25,000 mark, Sensex was up by almost 1,000 points. Globally, S&amp;P was up by 1.70%, while Hang Seng inched up by 1.06% But did you know that along with the Fed, many other <keyword id="19946830" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-banks" source="keywords">central banks</keyword> across the world also made changes to their interest rates this week? This includes <keyword id="19935367" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Brazil" source="keywords">Brazil</keyword>, Indonesia, Japan, <keyword id="19953502" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Turkey" source="keywords">Turkey</keyword> and England. We take a closer look: <h2>Brazil</h2> Latin America's largest economy, which has set a 3% inflation target for itself, is currently witnessing 4.25% inflation. The apex bank unanimously decided to raise its Selic rate, or benchmark interest by 25 basis points for the first time in 2 years, taking it to 10.75%. The decision making committee, also known as the Copom, also signalled towards three more rate hikes of 25 bps each by the end of this year, closing the year with the Selic at 11.25%. Bolstered by a solid labour market, with unemployment in the country dipping to 6.9% in May, the lowest since 2014, Brazil is also witnessing a surge in employment growth, which grew 2.9% on a YoY basis, and a rise in average monthly earnings, which jumped up 5.6% from the year ago period. Such strong labour markets, combined with higher consumer spending, stokes fears of inflation. This is why such tightening measures i.e. raising the borrowing costs become necessary. <h2>Japan</h2> The country held steady it's short term interest rate at 0.25%, treading largely along expected lines. You'd think the only way up for Japanese interest rates from hereon is up, but the country has, for decades, also held a negative interest rate, something it did away with only in March this year. This was done to fire up consumption and increase borrowing, which seems to be yielding fruits now. Governor Kazuo Ueda also hinted at raising interest rates, if spending and consumption stay in line with the central bank’s target of 2% inflation. <h2> Indonesia</h2> The country announced a quarter basis point (25 bps) rate cut for the first time in 3 years, a surprise move given that most experts anticipated the country to hold steady on to its interest rate of 6.25%. Bringing down the interest rate to 6%, governor Perry Warjiyo expects this to boost the Rupiah, the country's currency and also accelerate foreign inflows into the economy. Given that the country's inflation projections for 2024 and 2025 remain within the targeted 2.5%, experts anticipate more rate cuts in the remaining part of the year. <h2> Turkey</h2> The country's central bank kept the interest rate steady at 50% for the 6th consecutive month in September. Turkey had last hiked it's interest rate by a massive 500 basis point in March this year, in a bid to tame inflationary pressures, which are now down from 75% in May to 52% last month. The central bank estimates that inflation will be down to 42% by end of 2024, dipping further lower to 17.5% by 2025 end. Analysts expect the country to make its first rate cut in November this year, as inflation in the country stabilises to some extent. <h2> England</h2> The good old British refrained from tinkering with their interest rates, leaving it unchanged at 5%, even as their American counterparts slashing interest rates and keeping the interest rate target range between 4.75% and 5%. This comes amidst the rapid rising pace of service prices, which make up for 80% of the British economy, and wage rise. The decision was largely expected, given that inflation, which holds steady at 2.2% as of August, remains above the apex bank’s target. Sevice inflation in the country jumped to 5.6% in August, which is keeping Bank of England on alert. Although, it is expected to revise rates in its next meeting in November.

Not just Fed, but central banks of these countries also tinkered with rate cuts this week

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The market is underestimating how much the Federal Reserve's will cut rates in 2025, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li>The Fed fund rate will drop to 3.25-3.50% by the end of 2025, the bank estimates.</li></ul>Markets are underestimating how much the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates next year, Goldman Sachs predicted.In the bank's latest macro outlook, it estimated that the Fed funds rate could drop to 3.25%-3.5% in 2025.That's considerably below what investors see as the highest-probability outcome, as calculated by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>. It currently sees a 30% chance of rates being in the 3.75%-4.0% range by the end of next year.The disconnect reflects the degree to which investors are wary about the potentially <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflationary effect</a> President-elect Donald Trump's policies could have. The Fed generally tackles inflation by raising interest rates, which is seen challenging the central bank's plan for further easing.But Goldman forecasts that Trump's tariffs might actually justify rate cuts by prompting an economic slowdown in the early going. In these situations, the Fed eases monetary policy to revive activity."If anything, the threat of a near-term growth drag from tariffs and the Fed leadership's continued preference for frontloaded policy normalization have strengthened our confidence in sequential cuts through early next year," Goldman analysts led by chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Thursday.As for reinflation concerns, Goldman assumes that Trump's tariffs will only target China and auto exports coming from Europe and Mexico. In this scenario, US core inflation would reach a "benign" level of 2.4% by late 2025.However, if the incoming president follows through on a pledge to implement across-the-board 10% tariffs on all US trade, that figure would rise to 3.1% by early 2026.Still, Goldman noted that disinflation has been ongoing globally, and is a trend that is likely to keep up."Against this backdrop, we do not expect the US election outcome to derail the policy normalization process that is currently underway, and see most major central banks easing significantly further through 2025," the note said.To be sure, Goldman acknowledged that Trump's policies remain uncertain, creating the risk of an earlier stopping point for the Fed's cutting cycle. Much of this will depend on the Fed's willingness to respond preemptively to future inflation boosts.But for now, growth risks are the Fed's key priority, Goldman noted.

Investors are underestimating how deep rate cuts will be in 2025, Goldman says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.</li><li>It follows a 50-basis-point cut in September, with the pace of inflation continuing to cool.</li></ul>Another <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">interest rate cut</a> is headed Americans' way.On Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, following a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">50-basis-point cut</a> in September. It follows continued data showing inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's 2% target — the consumer price index, a commonly-watched measure of inflation, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">rose 2.4%</a> over the year in September.This latest interest rate decision also came two days after Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">won the presidential election</a>. Trump is expected to implement high tariffs once his term begins, and members of the FOMC will likely begin discussing the impact of the president-elect's policies on the economy and forthcoming interest rate decisions."A victory for Trump could raise doubts over a December cut, and the Fed may strike a more hawkish note as a result," Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial services firm Ebury, said in a statement last week.Trump's victory also throws into question the future of the Fed itself. Trump has previously said that he would like to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">have a say in interest-rate decisions</a>, challenging the politically independent nature of the central bank.Fed chair Jerome Powell will likely offer more insight into the Fed's thinking following Trump's victory. He has expressed confidence in the economy's direction in recent months, saying during remarks in late September that "overall, the economy is in solid shape.""We intend to use our tools to keep it there," he said.However, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">recent jobs data</a> will make it difficult for the central bank to give a clear vision of its upcoming decisions. The economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, well below the 106,000 forecast, primarily because Hurricanes Milton and Helene — along with the Boeing strike — put people temporarily out of work, artificially driving down the employment figures.It will take time for Americans to feel the impact of interest rate cuts, given the lag in monetary policy, meaning credit cards, housing, and car loans won't see immediate relief.The 25-basis-point cut was in line with market predictions. Still, some Democratic lawmakers urged the Fed to implement another 50-basis-point cut to give Americans continued financial relief. On November 1, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and John Hickenlooper wrote in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/final_-_warren_hickenlooper_letter_to_fed_renovember2024ratecut.pdf">letter</a> to Powell that housing costs "are still too high," and bigger rate cuts are warranted."If the Fed moves forward with more rate cuts, housing prices and mortgage rates would thus also likely drop, allowing more families to achieve the American dream," they wrote.

The Federal Reserve gives Americans another interest rate cut

The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump commented on the Fed after Wednesday's interest rate cut.</li><li>As a president and a candidate, Trump has continued undermining the Fed's independence.</li></ul>Interest-rate cuts are finally here, and former President Donald Trump isn't happy about it.On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">announced an interest-rate cut of 50 basis points</a>, the first cut Americans have received in over four years. With the pace of inflation slowing and the job market cooling over the past few months, some experts and Democratic lawmakers have been urging Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates sooner rather than later to give Americans relief from high prices.But Trump feels differently — he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlvBFsWoXtw">said</a> during a New York campaign stop on Wednesday that the rate cut "shows the economy is very bad to cut it by that much, assuming they're not just playing politics.""The economy would be very bad, or they're playing politics, one or the other," Trump said. "But it was a big cut."He's argued in the past that the Fed would only cut rates close to the election to aid Democrats, which he reiterated leading up to the central bank's announcement."They'll do the rate cut and all the political stuff tomorrow," Trump said during a Tuesday town hall in Michigan, adding that if he wins the presidential election, "we're going to get interest rates down."Notably, the president has no influence over lowering interest rates — the Federal Reserve is politically independent and is supposed to make monetary policy decisions solely based on its dual mandate of keeping inflation low and employment high.That's something Trump wants to change — The Wall Street Journal reported in April that members of Trump's team were <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-interest-rate-decisions-restructure-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-wsj-2024-4">creating plans to restructure the Fed</a> and allow Trump to have a say in interest-rate decisions. He later walked those comments back, saying in an August <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-19/trump-defends-fed-criticism-weighs-providing-aid-to-home-buyers">interview</a> with Bloomberg that he doesn't need to be "calling the shot, but it does mean that I should have a right to be able to talk about it like anybody else."Senior advisors to Trump told the Journal that those plans were not finalized.Trump has also previously accused the Fed of being political — he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-interest-rate-cuts-powell-help-democrats-win-elections-inflation-2024-2">said</a> during a Fox interview in February that Powell is "going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates."While Powell has not directly responded to Trump's comments, the Fed chair has repeatedly said that the Federal Reserve is an independent entity that makes decisions solely based on data and is not influenced by politics. "Our job is to support the economy on behalf of the American people, and if we get it right, this will benefit the American people significantly," Powell said during the Wednesday press conference. "It's something we all take very, very seriously. We don't put up any other filters. I think if you start doing that, I don't know where you stop."Trump sought to use his presidential power to appoint members to the Fed board who supported his unorthodox views of the central bank. Judy Shelton, a conservative economist who Trump nominated to the Board of Governors in 2019, had previously written that the Fed was "almost a rogue agency" that couldn't be trusted. Even fellow Republicans balked at her nomination, culminating in a 47-50 failed floor vote exacerbated by GOP absences related to COVID-19."In her past statements, Ms. Shelton has called for the Federal Reserve to be less independent of the political branches and has even questioned the need for a central bank," Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, said of her at the time. "This is not the right signal to send, particularly in the midst of the pandemic."Shelton was one of a series of Trump loyalists whose nominations ran aground. Former 2012 GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain and conservative commentator Stephen Moore both withdrew their respective nominations in the face of opposition. Trump was able to get former Kanas banking commissioner Michelle Bowman and economist Christopher Waller confirmed to the Fed Board.Trump has flip-flopped his views on his most important appointment to the Fed: Powell."He's strong, he's committed, he's smart," Trump said about Powell in 2017 when he nominated him to lead the Fed.In February, the former president said he would not reappoint Powell to lead the Fed. Earlier this summer, Trump told Bloomberg News that he would let Powell serve out his term. Trump's tepid support of Powell underlines just how mercurial he can be when it comes to the central bank."There are few more important positions than this, believe me, in our Government," Trump said in 2017 with Powell looking on.On that point, Trump hasn't wavered.

The Fed's interest-rate cut put Trump even more at odds with the central bank

Dear readers, As we approach yet another weekend, here are some key developments across various sectors. Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company, driven by the AI boom. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the second such reduction in 2024. In the workplace, Gen Z’s approach to mental health got attention, with one employee taking a week off after a breakup. Additionally, Indian banks are expecting steady growth, despite challenges in unsecured lending. Read on for all the details! <h2>Top stories from the week </h2> Indian banks to have steady growth in earnings over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report Jefferies forecasts steady earnings growth for Indian banks over the next 3–4 years, with a 13% annual loan growth rate. However, a decline in unsecured lending could reduce fee income. While net interest income is expected to grow at 12%, challenges such as rising defaults and a potential dip in rate cuts could affect profitability. Despite this, banks’ return on equity and assets remain promising. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/indian-banks-to-have-steady-growth-in-earning-over-next-3-4-years-fees-from-unsecured-lending-may-dip-notes-jefferies-report/articleshow/115048179.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> Nvidia becomes world’s largest company amid AI boom, surpasses Apple in the race Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company by market capitalization, driven by the AI boom. The company’s strong performance is fueled by surging demand for its chips used in AI technologies. With a market cap hitting $3.43 trillion, Nvidia continues to dominate the AI hardware sector, powering data centres and AI research. The company’s revenue growth of 122% YoY further cements its leadership in the AI space. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/nvidia-becomes-worlds-largest-company-amid-ai-boom-surpasses-apple-in-the-race/articleshow/115003223.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> ‘He had a breakup and took a one-week leave’: Manager shares about his Gen-Z employee, internet reacts A manager’s tweet about granting a Gen Z employee a week off for a breakup sparked widespread debate. While the manager expressed frustration over project delays, internet users defended the employee’s mental health needs, criticizing the manager’s lack of empathy. Some supported the manager’s view, pointing out generational differences in work culture. The incident went viral, furthering discussions about Gen Z’s unique workplace expectations. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/he-had-a-breakup-and-took-a-one-week-leave-manager-shares-about-his-gen-z-employee-internet-reacts/articleshow/115041747.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump’s victory to have no impact on policy decisions The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the second such reduction in 2024. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s independence despite Trump’s criticism and suggested that the economic outlook remains uncertain, though the Fed is focused on inflation targets. Trump’s policies may lead to higher inflation, adding complexity to the Fed’s efforts to stabilize prices. Experts anticipate that bond yields will stabilize, benefiting emerging markets like India. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/us-fed-cuts-interest-rates-by-25-bps-powell-notes-trumps-victory-to-have-no-impact-on-policy-decisions/articleshow/115070690.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> Big Tech’s winners and losers from Donald Trump’s win, according to the market After Donald Trump’s election victory, tech stocks surged, with companies like Tesla seeing significant gains. Tesla’s rise was fueled by Trump’s public support for CEO Elon Musk. Conversely, companies like Apple faced challenges due to fears over potential tariffs on China. While some, like Google, might benefit from lighter regulations, others like Meta could face political challenges. Overall, the election results reshaped market expectations for Big Tech’s future. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/here-are-big-techs-winners-and-losers-from-donald-trumps-win-according-to-the-market/articleshow/115067798.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> <h2>Top web stories</h2> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/webstories/donald-trump-on-screen-a-look-at-his-iconic-cameos/slidelist/115045250.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Donald Trump on screen: A look at his iconic cameos</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/webstories/8-lifestyle-mistakes-contributing-to-health-problems-in-india/slidelist/115051791.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">8 lifestyle mistakes contributing to health problems in India</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/travel/india/webstories/10-magical-indian-experiences-every-traveller-should-try/slidelist/115052527.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">10 magical Indian experiences every traveller should try</a>

Weekend wrap: Nvidia’s AI-driven surge, Indian banks’ steady growth and more

New Delhi: While the <keyword id="20199673" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moderation" source="keywords">moderation</keyword> in <keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword> <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> is a welcome development, experts caution that the road ahead could be bumpy. The sequential momentum in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent month-on-month increase in prices, higher than the average sequential growth, indicating that inflationary pressures may persist. The uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall and the potential for excess rainfall in the coming months pose additional risks to food prices. RajSinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge, noted, "Despite the moderation in the inflation of the food and beverage basket when compared to last year, the sequential momentum remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent M-o-M increase in prices, higher than an average sequential grow." Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, highlighted the impact of the high-base effect, stating, While the high-base effect -- along with sequential monthly movements -- was supportive of food inflation, it had an adverse bearing on core inflation. The big worry now is food prices continue to be elevated with the on-month rise slightly higher than usual for July. "The good part is monsoon and sowing have been progressing well and the expectation is that the arrival of fresh supplies in the market should over the next few months curb the food price rise. Overall, though, we expect inflation to ease and average 4.5 per cent this fiscal mostly due to softer food prices. This should allow the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to begin cutting earliest by October", Joshi added. Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director of Ladderup Wealth Management, expressed optimism regarding the CPI data, stating, "This decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in the Consumer Food Price Index, which fell from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July. This improvement should offer reassurance to the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI), which has indicated that <keyword id="19920341" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="keywords">rate cuts</keyword> will occur only when inflation sustainably aligns with its 4 per cent target. He added, "Positive expectations for the monsoon and adequate buffer stocks support the continued downward trend of CPI. However, any substantial rise in crude oil prices due to the ongoing geopolitical crisis could adversely affect inflation and the broader economy." Sanjeev Agrawal, President of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, also commended the decline in CPI inflation, stating, "It is highly appreciable that the CPI inflation has exhibited a decline in the year-on-year inflation rate at 3.5 per cent for the month of July 2024 from 5.08 per cent in June 2024." He added, "The food and beverages inflation eased sharply from 8.4 per cent in June 2024 to 5.06 per cent in July 2024 and fuel and light inflation from -3.7 per cent in June 2024 to -5.4 per cent in July 2024, are the main drivers of the softening inflation trajectory." India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased significantly to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, marking its lowest level in nearly five years and a sharp drop from 5.08 per cent in June. This decline, which brought inflation below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time since 2019, has been largely attributed to a favourable base effect and a dramatic reduction in <keyword id="20621131" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable-prices" source="keywords">vegetable prices</keyword>. The primary driver behind this sharp moderation was the steep fall in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to 6.8 per cent in July. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) also saw a significant reduction, falling from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July, contributing to the overall easing of CPI inflation. (ANI)

You Searched For "rate cuts impact on banks" and got 12 results

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

BI India Bureau

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Ira Alok Puranik

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

Ira Alok Puranik

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

BI India Bureau

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

Ira Alok Puranik

Not just Fed, but central banks of these countries also tinkered with rate cuts this week

Ira Alok Puranik

Investors are underestimating how deep rate cuts will be in 2025, Goldman says

Filip De Mott

The Federal Reserve gives Americans another interest rate cut

Ayelet Sheffey

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

Ira Alok Puranik

The Fed's interest-rate cut put Trump even more at odds with the central bank

Ayelet Sheffey,Brent D. Griff…

Weekend wrap: Nvidia’s AI-driven surge, Indian banks’ steady growth and more

Divyanshi Sharma

Experts welcome moderation of inflation in July, by warns of continued inflationary pressure ahead

ANI

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