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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.</li><li>It follows a 50-basis-point cut in September, with the pace of inflation continuing to cool.</li></ul>Another <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">interest rate cut</a> is headed Americans' way.On Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, following a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">50-basis-point cut</a> in September. It follows continued data showing inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's 2% target — the consumer price index, a commonly-watched measure of inflation, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">rose 2.4%</a> over the year in September.This latest interest rate decision also came two days after Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">won the presidential election</a>. Trump is expected to implement high tariffs once his term begins, and members of the FOMC will likely begin discussing the impact of the president-elect's policies on the economy and forthcoming interest rate decisions."A victory for Trump could raise doubts over a December cut, and the Fed may strike a more hawkish note as a result," Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial services firm Ebury, said in a statement last week.Trump's victory also throws into question the future of the Fed itself. Trump has previously said that he would like to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">have a say in interest-rate decisions</a>, challenging the politically independent nature of the central bank.Fed chair Jerome Powell will likely offer more insight into the Fed's thinking following Trump's victory. He has expressed confidence in the economy's direction in recent months, saying during remarks in late September that "overall, the economy is in solid shape.""We intend to use our tools to keep it there," he said.However, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">recent jobs data</a> will make it difficult for the central bank to give a clear vision of its upcoming decisions. The economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, well below the 106,000 forecast, primarily because Hurricanes Milton and Helene — along with the Boeing strike — put people temporarily out of work, artificially driving down the employment figures.It will take time for Americans to feel the impact of interest rate cuts, given the lag in monetary policy, meaning credit cards, housing, and car loans won't see immediate relief.The 25-basis-point cut was in line with market predictions. Still, some Democratic lawmakers urged the Fed to implement another 50-basis-point cut to give Americans continued financial relief. On November 1, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and John Hickenlooper wrote in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/final_-_warren_hickenlooper_letter_to_fed_renovember2024ratecut.pdf">letter</a> to Powell that housing costs "are still too high," and bigger rate cuts are warranted."If the Fed moves forward with more rate cuts, housing prices and mortgage rates would thus also likely drop, allowing more families to achieve the American dream," they wrote.

The Federal Reserve gives Americans another interest rate cut

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The market is underestimating how much the Federal Reserve's will cut rates in 2025, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li>The Fed fund rate will drop to 3.25-3.50% by the end of 2025, the bank estimates.</li></ul>Markets are underestimating how much the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates next year, Goldman Sachs predicted.In the bank's latest macro outlook, it estimated that the Fed funds rate could drop to 3.25%-3.5% in 2025.That's considerably below what investors see as the highest-probability outcome, as calculated by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>. It currently sees a 30% chance of rates being in the 3.75%-4.0% range by the end of next year.The disconnect reflects the degree to which investors are wary about the potentially <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflationary effect</a> President-elect Donald Trump's policies could have. The Fed generally tackles inflation by raising interest rates, which is seen challenging the central bank's plan for further easing.But Goldman forecasts that Trump's tariffs might actually justify rate cuts by prompting an economic slowdown in the early going. In these situations, the Fed eases monetary policy to revive activity."If anything, the threat of a near-term growth drag from tariffs and the Fed leadership's continued preference for frontloaded policy normalization have strengthened our confidence in sequential cuts through early next year," Goldman analysts led by chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Thursday.As for reinflation concerns, Goldman assumes that Trump's tariffs will only target China and auto exports coming from Europe and Mexico. In this scenario, US core inflation would reach a "benign" level of 2.4% by late 2025.However, if the incoming president follows through on a pledge to implement across-the-board 10% tariffs on all US trade, that figure would rise to 3.1% by early 2026.Still, Goldman noted that disinflation has been ongoing globally, and is a trend that is likely to keep up."Against this backdrop, we do not expect the US election outcome to derail the policy normalization process that is currently underway, and see most major central banks easing significantly further through 2025," the note said.To be sure, Goldman acknowledged that Trump's policies remain uncertain, creating the risk of an earlier stopping point for the Fed's cutting cycle. Much of this will depend on the Fed's willingness to respond preemptively to future inflation boosts.But for now, growth risks are the Fed's key priority, Goldman noted.

Investors are underestimating how deep rate cuts will be in 2025, Goldman says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Fed easing hasn't led to lower mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate actually rising since the first rate cut.</li><li>Mortgage rates are closely linked to the 10-year US Treasury yield, which have also risen over the period.</li></ul>The Federal Reserve's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interest-rate-cut-ai-stocks-nvidia-broadcom-asml-tech-2024-9">jumbo interest-rate cut in mid-September</a> was welcome news to prospective homebuyers, with the expectation that a lower fed funds rate would help push mortgage rates lower.Instead, the opposite has happened.Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell lowered interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has moved higher, not lower.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed">data from Mortgage News Daily</a>, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped about 47 basis points since the Fed rate cut, to 6.62% from 6.15%.The increase has aligned with a shift in how investors are viewing the Fed's path of future rate cuts, a pivot that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-impact-of-rate-cuts-10-year-treasury-yields-2024-9">started even before the September move</a>. The 10-year Treasury yield — which is strongly correlated with mortgage rates — has also risen since the rate cut, signaling that investors feel good about the economy and are pricing in less easing going forward.This was reinforced last Friday when a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">red-hot jobs report</a> showed a surprise decrease in the unemployment rate and blowout nonfarm-payroll additions."Mortgage rates have increased since the September Fed meeting because longer term rates have also increased, mostly as a function of markets pricing in lower recession odds, thanks to strong payroll data especially," Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese told BI.Now some economic commentators are saying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-fed-outlook-recession-economy-stocks-ed-yardeni-2024-10">rate cuts should be done for the year</a>, an outcome that would fail to deliver on long-held expectations of extended easing — and one that would likely mean limited future declines in the mortgage rate.<h2 id="12d543b7-d720-47f9-9de7-fe8198291286">The way forward</h2>The conundrum around high mortgage rates is ultimately a catch-22.If the Fed is no longer going to aggressively cut interest rates, a jump in home sales would be the clearest path to cheaper mortgages. But lofty mortgage rates are keeping that activity from increasing, and people are staying put in their homes and not putting them on the market.Going forward, the situation hinges on the Fed's rate-lowering schedule. At present time, market expectations — as calculated by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch tool</a> — are for two more 25-basis-point cuts this year.Whether that will manifest itself in lower mortgage rates is up in the air. Two major upcoming events are the Consumer Price Index release this Thursday, as well as the October jobs report in the first week of November.What those say about the health of the economy and the state of inflation will go a long way towards recalibrating the expected path of Fed easing. If it's concluded that substantially more relief is needed, downward movement could be seen. But if the economy continues to show signs of strength — and possibly persistently sticky inflation — mortgage-rate optimists may be out of luck.

Rate cuts were supposed to push mortgage rates lower. The opposite has happened.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes slipped Thursday as traders focused on remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</li><li>Powell said the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and reiterated the strength of the US economy.</li></ul>Indexes ended lower on Thursday, with the election rally fizzling out as traders digested remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assessed the latest inflation data. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell more than 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 200 points. The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, remained nearly flat at 4.447%, hovering close to its highest level since July.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,949.17, down 0.6% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,750.86, down 0.47% (-207.33 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,107.65, down 0.64%</li></ul>The slide comes after Powell signaled the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates while the US economy remains on solid footing. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said during prepared remarks at an event in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."Powell added the US has had the best domestic growth of any major economy, and emphasized the strength of the labor market. He said the October jobs report's slowing job growth was largely due to storm-related damage.Powell's comments come as investors seek hints of the Fed's intended easing path after a 25 basis point cut last week. Trump's election win has sparked worries that inflation could rise again under his proposals for broad tariffs and mass deportations, which could cause the Fed to pause rate hikes, economists say.Traders expect the central bank to cut another 25 basis points at its December meeting before pausing in January, according to the CME <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">FedWatch tool</a>.Powell's comments also follow the latest inflation reading which shows wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The data was in line with expectations but showed inflation remains somewhat sticky, with a year-over-year increase of 2.4%.The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in the month and 3.1% year-over-year.Meanwhile, jobless claims data on Thursday, showed weekly claims dropped to their lowest since May, falling to 217,000 last week. That marks a 4,000 decline from the week prior.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Investors are underestimating how deep <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-2025-trump-tariff-inflation-growth-2024-11">rate cuts will be in 2025</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/electric-vehicle-stocks-trump-end-ev-tax-credit-tesla-rivian-2024-11?_gl=1*1794use*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjM3LjIyLjAuMA..">EV makers slid</a> on report Trump wants to scrap the EV tax credit.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/disney-stock-price-3q-earnings-streaming-profit-guidance-cruise-parks-2024-11?_gl=1*6r1dtf*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjUxLjguMC4w">Disney stock surged</a> as rare three-year forecast sees strong profit growth ahead.</li><li>China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-supply-crude-prices-us-production-china-opec-2024-11?_gl=1*1he4945*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjcwLjYwLjAuMA..">surplus</a> of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.3% to $68.63 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.3% to $72.48 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose fell 0.5% to $2,572 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury was nearly flat at 4.447%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was down 1.4% to $87,531. </li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes fall as Powell says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stock indexes retreated as investors digested Thursday commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</li><li>The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December fell sharply after Powell's address.</li></ul>US equities slumped Friday morning as Wall Street pulled back rate-cut expectations for December.The scaling-back started on Thursday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that central bank will take its time in easing policy, citing ongoing US economic strength."The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," he said.The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut fell to less than 60% shortly after Powell's comments, down from 80%, as calculated by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>. The probability remained lower, around 58%, on Friday morning.Also impacting rate-cut expectations is a streak of encouraging economic data. New figures on Friday showed US retail sales advanced in October, boosted by a jump in autos purchases.While the three major indexes headed for their first losing week since the election, bond yields climbed. The 2-year yield — most sensitive to near-term rate forecasts — has risen 7 basis points in the last two days.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,905.37, down 0.7%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,547.05, down 0.5% (213 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,859.96, down 1.3%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bubble-crash-prediction-bull-market-drivers-top-2024-11?_gl=1*1wkitcm*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTY3NDUwNC44NDAuMS4xNzMxNjc4ODMzLjU1LjAuMA..">3 stock market rally drivers are hitting extremes and pointing to low returns</a>, David Rosenberg said.</li><li>David Einhorn is <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-einhorn-greenlight-capital-cnh-stock-value-buy-agriculture-inflation-2024-11?_gl=1*jv6vk7*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTY3NDUwNC44NDAuMS4xNzMxNjc4OTczLjE1LjAuMA..">loading up on a CNH Industrial</a>, a cheap agricultural stock 'no one cares about.'</li><li>Investors underestimate how deep <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-2025-trump-tariff-inflation-growth-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rate cuts will be in 2025</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li>China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-supply-crude-prices-us-production-china-opec-2024-11?_gl=1*1he4945*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjcwLjYwLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">surplus</a> of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil markets were down. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> slid 0.96% to $68.04 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.94% to $71.88 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> stayed essentially flat at $2,572 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury climbed 4 basis points to 4.459%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> jumped 2.28% to $90,053.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes tumble after Fed comments dent December rate-cut odds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Happy Friday! Elections can be stressful, so take some tips from new research on how to lower your blood pressure. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lower-your-blood-pressure-5-minutes-exercise-a-day-study-2024-11">Daily short, intense workouts</a> can be your best bet to fight disease and improve longevity.In today's big story, the Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt</a>. What comes next isn't as clear.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Goldman Sachs announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11">its newest class of partners</a>.</li><li>Tech: The stock market is already indicating <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">winners and losers among Big Tech</a>.</li><li>Business: Hiring experts are predicting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">a "Trump bump" for the jobs market</a>.</li></ul>But first, more relief … for now.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">The Fed's new conundrum</h2><div type="image" title="Jerome Powell on top of stock market chart going down." height="900" width="1800" msid="115090330" hostid="261" sizebytes="70080"></div>Americans got a bit more relief from the Fed, but questions are swirling about what the president-elect means for future plans.The Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points Thursday</a>, its second-straight reduction since September in a move that was largely expected. Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">could slow down the Fed's plans</a>.Economists have said Trump's 10-20% blanket tariff on most imported goods will cause inflation to flare up as producers and importers pass the cost of the tax onto consumers. Prior to the election, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said Trump's tariff plans would result in an "inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else you could do through federal policy."It's not just speculation from economists. The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. Treasury yields soared the day after the election, a sign Wall Street sees interest rates staying elevated.Interest-rate traders have also recalibrated their expectations. The chances of a 25-point December rate cut went from 83% at the start of the month down to as much as 63% yesterday following the Fed's announcement, according to the CME FedWatch tool. (It currently stands around 75%.)<div type="image" title="Photo of Donald Trump" height="1279" width="1920" msid="115090327" hostid="261" sizebytes="95086"></div>Still, speculating on what could come from a president-elect is a tricky game.Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Bankrate.com">Bankrate.com</a>, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference. Powell also emphasized the election won't impact the central bank's near-term actions, McBride added."Until there are policy specifics being passed into law, there is nothing for the Fed to put in their economic models and they won't speculate or assume anything in the interim," McBride wrote via email.There's also the question of whether Trump's tariff would be as inflationary as some fear. During his first term, the former president issued tariffs against China that didn't cause prices to spike.Trump's proposals this time around are much more aggressive, but it's not clear what will actually be put in place."Nobody knows what will be implemented and what is just posturing for negotiation," McBride added.Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy for Manulife Investment Management, told Insider Today via email the firm's base case is still a 25-point cut in December. The Fed would change course in reaction to tariffs only if they are official and making an impact, meaning the central bank's policy likely wouldn't change until mid-2025, Lapointe added.One thing that is clear: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">Powell's not leaving</a>.When a reporter asked the Fed leader if he would resign if Trump, who has been critical of him, asked him to step down, his response was simple: "No."<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Democrats wished the election was about jobs. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">Trump's win showed it was about prices</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-local-government-debt-rescue-trump-us-presidential-election-2024-11">China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package</a> to boost its economy on the heels of Trump's election.</li><li>Airbnb reported its earnings. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-earnings-shares-most-interesting-things-cohost-2024-11">Here are four highlights</a>.</li><li>Trump said he will divide Russia from China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">It's a tough bromance to break</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-prediction-correct-election-trump-harris-2024-11">Peter Thiel's 'contrarian'</a> election prediction came true.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of MAGA hat on exchange desk" height="655" width="1000" msid="115090331" hostid="261" sizebytes="44410"></div><ol><li>Morningstar thinks you should stay the course with your investment plan. Trump's win sent the stock market surging, but that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">doesn't mean you should rethink your investing strategy</a>, Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera said. His call for restraint is partly due to how high stock valuations currently are, although he does see opportunity among small-caps.</li><li>The new Goldman execs who just got the call of a lifetime. Goldman Sachs tapped<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11"> 95 people to join its exclusive partnership</a> on Thursday, a record high under CEO David Solomon. Twenty-six of the new partners are women, a group closely watched after a series of high-profile female partner exits.</li><li>Trump's election might be Citi's saving grace. The bank has spent more than $7.4 billion addressing regulators' concerns, specifically about its data and risk problems. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-citi-jane-fraser-regulators-frc-occ-2024-11">Donald Trump could ease that pain</a>. The president-elect has signaled he'd cut down on Wall Street oversight, previously pledging he'd eliminate 10 rules for each new one.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Musk and Trump." height="2499" width="3329" msid="115090332" hostid="261" sizebytes="268836"></div><ol><li>How Elon Musk swung Pennsylvania for Trump. The tech tycoon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">spent millions on the Keystone State</a> to deliver it to Trump, launching a last-minute canvassing effort and untested ground-game techniques. Musk's strategy could usher in a "new era" in campaign spending, one political scientist told BI.</li><li>Big Tech's biggest winners and losers after Trump's victory. Which companies stand to gain the most under a new Trump presidency? BI looked at the two-day stock performance of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">many of the largest tech companies to find out</a>.</li><li>Trump's plan to "never ban" TikTok will be tough to fulfill, legal experts say. The former president campaigned on the promise that TikTok would be here to stay. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-block-tiktok-ban-legal-experts-2024-11">But legal experts told BI he's only got two options to try and save it</a> — and neither of them are straightforward.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Image of Walmart sign outside store" height="1280" width="1920" msid="115090336" hostid="261" sizebytes="228442"></div><ol><li>Retail giants prepare for Trump 2.0. Tariffs are the biggest concern for superstores like Walmart, Target, and Costco. If the president-elect follows through on his campaign promises, consumers could foot the bill of high tariffs through higher prices. On the other hand, tax cuts could spur spending — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-retail-impact-walmart-costco-target-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">but they'd take many months to see results</a>.</li><li>The job market under Trump. Hiring experts expect a "Trump bump" as employers get comfortable posting openings now that the election's outcome is clear. They forecast a postelection hiring rush and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">increased demand in some sectors</a>, particularly tech.</li><li>David Zaslav is optimistic about Trump's effect on Big Media. The Warner Bros. Discovery CEO wanted a president who was more open to M&amp;A, since his company has been eyeing consolidation for a while. A second <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wbd-trump-zaslav-consolidation-earnings-2024-11">Trump administration might provide that opportunity</a>, Zaslav said on WBD's earnings call, but it's too early to be certain.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">far more than originally thought</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">Harris couldn't escape</a> Biden's unpopularity.</li><li>Investors accuse the ex-CEO of the company that helped take Trump Media public of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-ceo-patrick-orlando-lawsuit-trump-media-investors-shares-2024-11">stiffing them out of millions of shares</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Paramount, Sony, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Grammy Award nominations are announced.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Fed cuts rates again, but Trump's tariff plan sparks inflation fears and market uncertainty

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes rose Thursday to continue a post-election rally after the Fed cut interest rates.</li><li>The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, a smaller move compared to its September meeting. </li></ul>Indexes ended higher on Thursday, extending a post-election rally after the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut at the end of its latest policy meeting. The Nasdaq jumped 1.5% to a new record high, while the S&amp;P 500 climbed 0.8% to a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was nearly flat after surging by more than 1,500 points on Wednesday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,973.10, up 0.74% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,729.34</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,269.46, up 1.5%</li></ul>Major indexes gained as the Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut rates by 25 basis points</a>, which was widely expected after an initial jumbo 50 basis point cut in September.Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will continue to be data dependent, but that it is prepared to adjust its easing pace as necessary.Though some noted after the meeting that the Fed's tone may have sounded less confident about the path of inflation, noting "progress" has been made rather than the previous wording of "further progress," analysts were unconcerned."The Committee had used this language as a threshold to start cutting, so we interpret its removal as a reflection of the fact that the cutting cycle is already underway rather than as an indication of reduced confidence in the inflation outlook," analysts from Goldman Sachs said in a Thursday note.CPI data has been slightly sticky above the Fed's 2% target, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">latest report</a> showing inflation cooled in September but less than economists had expected.The labor market, on the other hand, appears to be a smaller source of stress for the Fed, but Powell said it's "prepared to adjust the pace and destination" of easing as the jobs data evolves."There seems to be less anxiety about the risk of rising unemployment and slowing job growth," Fitch Ratings chief economist Brian Coulton said in a Thursday note.The latest employment data, released Thursday, shows weekly jobless claims increased slightly to 221,000, a gain of 3,000 from the week before and in line with expectations.Investors seem hopeful Trump's light regulatory stance and proposals for corporate tax cuts will make for a more friendly business environment. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-trump-deregulation-tax-cuts-evercore-2024-11">Evercore ISI this week predicted</a> the S&amp;P 500 to jump 11% by next summer as the rally accelerates in Trump's second term. Powell said the election outcome will have "no effect" on the Fed's policy in the near future and reiterated that the Fed does not speculate on any administration's potential impact on the economy.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11?miRedirects=1">The Polymarket "whale" made a lot more</a> than previously thought betting on Trump to win. </li><li>Stocks are entering "Crazy Town" as valuations near generational highs. </li><li>Stocks tied to Russia rally as Trump's win <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-stocks-trump-win-ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-2024-11?_gl=1*7o1w4e*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAxMTE0MC4zNzguMS4xNzMxMDEzMTI1LjYwLjAuMA..">fuels hopes</a> for an end to the Ukraine war.</li><li>Trump's win created a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wealthiest-people-in-world-net-worth-increase-trump-victory-stocks-2024-11?_gl=1*1kcs0b*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAxMTE0MC4zNzguMS4xNzMxMDEzMTUyLjMzLjAuMA..">record $64 billion</a> of net worth for the world's 10 richest people.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.5% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.7% to $75.42 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose climbed 1.4% to $2,713.80 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury fell nine basis points to 4.335%. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was up slightly to $76,505.</li></ul>

You Searched For "rate cut" and got 7 results

The Federal Reserve gives Americans another interest rate cut

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Investors are underestimating how deep rate cuts will be in 2025, Goldman says

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Rate cuts were supposed to push mortgage rates lower. The opposite has happened.

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Stock market today: Indexes fall as Powell says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates

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Stock market today: Indexes tumble after Fed comments dent December rate-cut odds

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Fed cuts rates again, but Trump's tariff plan sparks inflation fears and market uncertainty

Dan DeFrancesco

Stock market today: Stocks extend post-election rally as the Fed cuts interest rates

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