Best printers for Home

Best Mixer Grinder

Best wired Earphones

Best 43 Inch TV in India

Best Wi Fi Routers

Best Home Theatre in India

Smart Watch under 5000

Best Laptops for Education

Best Laptop for Students

<ul><li>A <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Morgan-Stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword> report says that rural demand is set to rebound, helped by wider reopening, improving labour market and more.</li><li>Its rural activity tracker has picked up in the last 3-4 months.</li><li>Rural wages have been showing improvement in August and rural unemployment hit an 8-month low in September.</li><li>The structural outlook of rural areas is improving as well – thanks to policymakers’ focus on boosting rural incomes.</li></ul>Rural economy is all set for a rebound as per readings from four key indicators – employment, credit offtake, auto sales and trade, according to a recent report by Morgan Stanley. “We believe rural demand is set to rebound, helped by wider reopening, improving labour market conditions, and improving terms of trade for the rural sector,” the report said. Apart from increasing food inflation since the start of this financial year, India’s villages have been suffering from the effects of the second wave of the pandemic – which dislocated livelihoods. Government spending too was reduced, as compared to the first wave. However, the tide seems to be turning. “High-frequency data suggest that overall economic activity has been normalising over the past three months after remaining sluggish in the trailing 12 months. Our consolidated rural activity tracker shows a pickup in YoY terms over the last 3-4 months,” the report said. Cyclical outlook The first indicator is the unemployment rate which hit an 8-month low in September, as per CMIE. Secondly, two-wheeler sales reached 1.1 million in September, its highest since the pre-pandemic month of October 2020. Agricultural credit growth also hit its highest in nine months in August – at 13.4%. “Even as agriculture exports have been impacted by policy decisions to restrict exports of wheat and rice, they have grown 27.5% in the financial year to date FY23. The terms of trade are now turning with non-food inflation moderating,” Morgan Stanley said. An increase in hiring in the informal sector and more employment opportunities in the semi-skilled space will also help improve rural household incomes, as per the report. Normalised activity will also boost monetary transfers from urban to rural areas - and give a much-needed fillip to the rural economy. Moreover, rural wages – both farm and non-farm — have shown an improvement in August. “Rural wages are steady in nominal terms and probably at trough in real terms,” the report said. Structurally speaking Apart from the cyclical outlook, the structural outlook of rural areas is improving as well – thanks to policymakers’ focus on boosting rural incomes. Apart from improving agricultural productivity, they are building infrastructure, industry and services along with skill-building of the rural labour force. “Progress has already been made in physical infrastructure, connectivity and digital infrastructure, and we expect policymakers to continue to focus on boosting productivity across the rural economy,” the report said. While government spending in rural areas has reduced since the start of the pandemic, it’s still at 3.3% of the GDP — well above the pre-pandemic levels. However, Morgan Stanley also insists that there are risks associated with their assumptions on <keyword id="9592296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rural-recovery" source="Orion">rural recovery</keyword>. They include slower-than-expected improvement in contact-intensive services segment growth, weak job creation in the semi-skilled segment, and an increase in commodity prices — which will increase non-food inflation and worsen terms of trade for the rural sector. Monsoons: Scarcity plus surplus The biggest drag however is the patchy monsoon this year. While rainfall was 6% above last year’s rainfall, as much as 40% of the total area received excess rainfall and six regions (17% of total) in the north and north-eastern parts of the country recorded a deficit. As per the full-season data, decline in kharif acreage touched 0.8% year-on-year as the deficit in rice sowing – a key summer crop – remains steady at 4.8%. Sowing declined the most for rice, followed by pulses and oilseeds. “The first advance estimates show rice production likely to be 6.8mn tons lower than in 2021. We will continue to monitor the government's measures to regulate the supply and demand balance in this area through procurement and other actions. Separately, the reservoir level is at 108% of the 2021 level, which is likely to support the winter cropping season,” the report said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/two-in-three-ceos-in-india-expect-a-recession-in-12-months-says-survey/articleshow/94934951.cms">Two in three CEOs in India expect a recession in 12 months says survey</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/indians-above-40-are-feeling-younger-healthier-than-gen-z-millennials-report/articleshow/94918231.cms">Indians above 40 are feeling younger &amp; healthier than Gen Z, millennials - report</a>

Rural recovery underway says Morgan Stanley

The <keyword id="6355302" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rupee">rupee</keyword> is in free-fall. And things will likely get worse before they get better. The Indian currency closed at 68.11 to the US <keyword id="35208" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar">dollar</keyword> on May 15th, following an uncertain result in the Karnataka elections. This marks <a href="https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&amp;From=USD&amp;To=INR">a 6.7% </a><keyword id="6365592" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Depreciation">depreciation</keyword> against the US dollar since the start of the year, making the Indian rupee the worst performing Asian currency in 2018, followed by the Philippine peso - which has depreciated by <a href="https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&amp;From=USD&amp;To=PHP">4.5% so far this year.</a> More importantly, this is the lowest level that the currency has dropped to since January 24th 2017, when it breached the 68 mark to close <a href="https://www.exchange-rates.org/Rate/USD/INR/1-24-2017">at 68.17</a>. The currency performed well in 2017, gaining 6% to end the year at 63.85 amid a surge in capital inflows. Winners and losers In the short term, Indian consumers will directly feel the impact of a declining rupee as imports become more expensive. Higher import prices mean that imported raw materials will be more expensive, which in turn could mean higher inflation. In addition, Indian companies which have debts overseas or those that are required to make payments in dollars will also feel the strain. The Indian government’s <keyword id="183320" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="current-account-deficit">current account deficit</keyword>, which measures the value of exports against the value of imports, will widen, thereby hurting its finances. There will be some winners, however. Companies that are paid in dollars like IT firms will experience a boost in revenues, while exporters will benefit from higher demand for their products. Even remittances, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/Indian-migrants-sent-nearly-70bn-back-to-the-country-in-2017-more-than-anyone-else/articleshow/64159912.cms">which India gets a lot of</a>, will look bigger. But why is the currency depreciating? Barring the hung result of the state elections in Karnataka, the rupee is falling for a number of reasons - all of which are interlinked. <keyword id="6354418" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-prices">Oil prices</keyword>, which are measured in dollar terms, have risen consistently this year, adding to inflation as well as India’s bill for oil imports. The latter, in turn, is increasing the current account deficit even further. A higher current account deficit means that the government has to try and plug the gap with its foreign exchange reserves. As its foreign reserves are deployed or dollars are bought to reduce the deficit, the rupee weakens. A higher current account deficit also reduces investor confidence. Foreign portfolio investors have stopped making purchases of rupees and Indian bonds and equities, choosing to withdraw to safer havens like the US. Net outflows hit nearly <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/fpi-outflow-hits-16-month-high-at-rs-15500-cr-in-april/article23791539.ece">₹156 billion</a> last month, a 16-month high. Confidence in the economy is, in essence, a self-fulfilling prophecy. Foreign and domestic investors, people and companies alike, are expecting the rupee to fall, so they buy dollars instead - which makes the relative value of the rupee against the dollar fall. Why it could get worse Firstly, oil prices are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-holds-gains-amid-u-s-production-growth-1526293899">expected to keep increasing,</a> following the US’s recent decision to impose sanctions on Iran, the third-largest producer in the OPEC, which could curtail its oil exports. Russia and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia have also decided to curb production till the end of 2018, which has led to higher prices. Additionally, output from another prominent global supplier, Venezuela, has been declining amid a political crisis. Secondly, as the US is expected to raise its interest rates <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-dudley/dudley-sees-three-or-four-fed-rate-hikes-in-2018-cnbc-idUSKBN1HN20M">at least two more times</a> in the remainder of the year, more assets will flow back from emerging markets like India to the US, where they are a guaranteed a higher return than before. In fact, the reason the rupee did so well in 2017 is because interest rates in the US and Europe were low, hence, a lot of cheap credit came flowing to India, where expected returns were higher. In addition, since national elections are slated for next year, foreign entities will be cautious about investing in the country. The election of an incumbent can mean the continuation of the same economic policies but an unfavourable result can jeopardise an investment. So inflows are expected to decline until investors know what to expect from the next government. Finally, if India’s GDP growth in the next few quarters proves to be subpar, it could hurt business and investor confidence even further - leading to more outflows. What is the government going to do? The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="30067" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI">RBI</keyword>) has a sizeable pile of foreign exchange reserves, which reached <a href="https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Wss/PDFs/2T_110518E81833226C074A2AADD7FB757008DBBF.PDF">$418.9 billion</a> at the end of the first week in May. It can always intervene to arrest the decline in the value of the rupee by selling dollars and buying rupees. In fact, it is expected to purchase <a href="https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=43842">₹100 billion of rupee-denominated bonds</a> on May 17th. As the short-term trajectory of India’s economy looks <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/The-Reserve-Bank-of-India-left-rates-unchanged-because-like-us-its-uncertain-about-a-lot-of-things/articleshow/63644188.cms">less uncertain </a>and more dire, the central bank’s monetary policy committee can also raise interest rates. Inflation is on an upswing, <a href="http://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/CPI_PR_14may18.pdf">reaching 4.58% in April</a>, and crude oil prices are nearing the <a href="https://oilprice.com/">$80/barrel</a> mark. As a result, the RBI could be tempted to increase interest rates to rein in inflation, which can increase the yields on Indian bonds and make the interest rate differential between the US and India higher. However, it will likely stay the course until the effects of the monsoon play out. The central bank will not increase rates following a period of subdued economic growth, which could very well be the case if rainfall is lower than expected.

The Indian rupee is at its weakest since January 2017, and will probably keep falling

Thanks to the heavy rains in the first three days of July, the <keyword id="1126021" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monsoon-deficit">monsoon deficit</keyword> across the country has drastically reduced to 6% as compared to the 11% at the end of June. 
 
These three days have seen an average of 33.2mm rainfall across India, which is 29% above normal for these three days, and this can be attributed to the heavy rainfall in northwest and central India, the areas where monsoon is heavily concentrated as of now. 
 
As per the met office, Sunday saw the southwest monsoon getting ahead into the whole of Haryana and Punjab while also getting deeper into Gujarat and east Rajasthan. In the coming 48 hours, one can expect the wind system to cover the entire country, it told <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Monsoon-rally-in-north-and-west-deficit-drops-to-6/articleshow/53037809.cms">TNN</a>. 
 
<a href="http://darkroom.baltimoresun.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/REU-INDIA-MONSOON.jpg">Image source</a>

Heavy
rains drop monsoon deficit by 5%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Mexico faces a severe drought that has affected over 85% of the country.</li><li>Most reservoirs are below 50% and a lack of water is affecting local wildlife.</li></ul>Mexico is experiencing one of its most severe and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-city-water-crisis-day-zero-drought-rain-2024-5">widespread droughts</a> in over a decade. Water levels are so low in some regions that you can see the effects from space.Bustillos Lagoon in northern Mexico, for example, is at 50% of its typical capacity. The US Geological Survey released images this month from its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rivers-dams-pollution-satellite-pictures-human-activity-water-2018-9">Landsat satellites</a> showing the shriveled-up lagoon in June compared to its size 6 months earlier in January.<div type="image" title="A side-by-side satellite image of the same lake full and at 50% capacity on the right" height="1080" width="1440" msid="112880360" hostid="261" sizebytes="100092"></div>The lagoon's reduced capacity was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vietnam-climate-crisis-economy-drought-kills-fish-threatens-coffee-production-2024-5">deadly for thousands of fish</a>. Low water levels concentrated pollutants even more reducing water quality and further stressing the fish, Irma de la Pena, head of the Ecology Department in the city of Cuauhtemoc, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/climate/dead-fish-lagoon-mexico-heat-drought-intl/index.html">told CNN</a> in June.<div type="image" title="Thousands of dead fish on brown, dry lake bed" height="1500" width="2250" msid="112880364" hostid="261" sizebytes="719038"></div>Bustillos Lagoon is a significant water source for the state of Chihuahua and is mainly used to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://revistatyca.org.mx/index.php/tyca/article/view/1855/1749">irrigate</a> nearly 20,000 agricultural plots. With limited water, people in Chihuahua have watched their crops and livestock wither.It's not just Bustillos Lagoon, though. Over 85% of the country was affected by the drought in May, with some areas having <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rainwater-no-longer-safe-to-drink-anywhere-study-forever-chemicals-2022-8">little rainfall</a> since the end of 2022, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/multi-year-drought-and-heat-waves-across-mexico-2024">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a>.You can see more images of drought-ridden Mexican lakes in the video below.The drought, "created a pretty big deficit in both the northwest and the south-central parts of the country in terms of lack of precipitation," Derek Vollmer, director of Waterscapes at WWF, told Business Insider.The view from space is bleak, but the images from the ground show an even grimmer reality for the people, plants, and animals coping with the drought.Some farmers can't provide adequate water for their livestock, and cows and donkeys have died during the hot and arid months. Other farmers have left the area because the conditions are so severe, rancher Jesus Maria Palacios <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/mass-fish-death-mexicos-chihuahua-state-blamed-severe-drought-2024-06-08/">told Reuters</a> in June.<div type="image" title="A cow stuck in dirt in a dry lake bed" height="1500" width="2250" msid="112880361" hostid="261" sizebytes="340796"></div>Even the bees are perishing."There is almost no vegetation in the landscape right now, due to the drought," beekeeper Adan Rascon Ramos <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/nature-is-punishing-us-drought-imperils-farmers-bees-mexicos-north-2024-08-27/">told Reuters</a>. That includes thirsty wildflowers, which haven't bloomed.As a result, bees searching for pollen have turned to what limited agricultural crops are left, and the herbicides are killing them in droves.<div type="image" title="A person in a bee suit holds a handful of dead bees" height="1500" width="2250" msid="112880363" hostid="261" sizebytes="89214"></div><h2 id="5471463c-d242-41db-9fd0-198344c6e00c">An unusually dry year</h2>Using Landsat satellite data, researchers can determine that Mexico's current drought is more widespread than its last one in 2011 because it affected two regions, the north and south-central."From hundreds of miles up in space, we're able to look at things like drought and look at very subtle shifts in what's happening on the landscape," Terry Sohl of the USGS's Earth Resources Observation and Science Center told BI.<div type="image" title="A man on a balcony looks at a dry bed of a lake covered in dead fish" height="1500" width="2250" msid="112880358" hostid="261" sizebytes="350456"></div>Different factors led to the latest drought. Last year, El Niño failed to bring its usual precipitation to the north, and a weak La Niña affected rain levels in the south and central regions. The first half of this year was also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pervasive-drought-threatens-tourism-industry-in-sicily-italy-2024-7">very dry</a>, adding to the problem, according to NOAA.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-category-6-wind-speed-prediction-2024-2">Tropical storms</a> in June brought some relief to the central and southwest regions but northwest Mexico is still in a drought.Over half of Mexico's reservoirs are at or below 50%, right now. "It takes a lot of additional precipitation to build that back up," Vollmer said. "One good set of rain isn't going to take places out of drought."Vollmer said drier conditions could become more permanent in some regions. Droughts are classified based on historical averages, he said, but "we're moving into new conditions." What was once a drought may now be the new normal.There are some potential measures to help safeguard against future droughts. WWF has been working in Mexico to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wwf-nonprofits-that-helps-companies-with-sustainability-goals-2022-5">help communities</a> create <a target="_blank" href="https://wwf.panda.org/discover/our_focus/freshwater_practice/freshwater_inititiaves/water_reserves_initiative/">water reserves</a> by implementing policies to keep river systems above a certain level. Originally it was an effort to ensure biodiversity, but "it's increasingly recognized as kind of an insurance against these drought conditions," Vollmer said.

Mexico's draught is so severe you can see the effects from space

<keyword id="19896255" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="kashmir" source="keywords">Kashmir</keyword> is likely to receive light snow and rain next week, bringing an end to the prolonged dry spell in the valley, the weather office said on Friday. It said dry weather is likely to continue till January 24 with generally cloudy weather on Saturday evening. There is a possibility of light snow at isolated places in the higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir on January 25, an official of the <keyword id="19938289" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="met-department" source="keywords">MeT Department</keyword> said. He said from January 26-28, light rain or snow is likely over scattered places in J-K. "From January 29-31, as per the indications of different models, the possibility of light to moderate rain/snow at many places is very likely, the official said. A dry and largely snowless winter in Kashmir has resulted in freezing nights and warmer than usual days. Kashmir is currently under the grip of "Chilla-i-Kalan", a 40-day harsh winter period when a cold wave sweeps the region and temperatures drop considerably leading to the freezing of water bodies as well as water in pipes. The chances of snowfall are the highest during this period and most areas, particularly the higher reaches, receive heavy snowfall. However, Kashmir has been going through a prolonged dry spell and a 79 per cent deficit in rainfall was recorded for December while there has been no precipitation in most parts of the valley in the first fortnight of January. 'Chilla-i-Kalan' will end on January 31. However, the cold conditions will continue after that with a 20-day 'Chilla-i-Khurd' (small cold) and a 10-day 'Chilla-i-Bachha' (baby cold). <keyword id="19910854" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="srinagar" source="keywords">Srinagar</keyword> city recorded a minimum temperature of minus 4.9 degrees Celsius on Thursday night, dropping slightly from the previous night's minus 4.6 degrees Celsius, the officials said. Qazigund recorded a low of minus 5 degrees while in the ski resort of Gulmarg in north Kashmir it was minus 3.6 degrees Celsius, they said. Pahalgam in south Kashmir's Anantnag district, which serves as one of the base camps for the annual Amarnath Yatra, recorded a minimum temperature of minus 6.3 degrees Celsius. The minimum temperature in Kokernag town settled at minus 1.4 degrees Celsius and in Kupwara at minus 5 degrees Celsius.

You Searched For "rainfall deficit" and got 5 results

Rural recovery underway says Morgan Stanley

Katya Naidu

The Indian rupee is at its weakest since January 2017, and will probably keep falling

Dilsher Dhillon

Heavy rains drop monsoon deficit by 5%

BI India Bureau

Mexico's draught is so severe you can see the effects from space

Jenny McGrath

Kashmir's dry spell likely to end next week

PTI

Popular Keywords

Buying Guides