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<ul><li>Asian currencies like Yuan and Won also suffered from the better-than-expected US economic data.</li><li>The rupee also reversed its strong performance on Thursday, when it closed 6 paise higher.</li><li>Most experts expect the Indian currency to remain volatile in the next few weeks. </li></ul><keyword id="20045514" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-rupee" source="keywords">Indian Rupee</keyword> slipped to a three-month low on Friday, after the dollar index gained sharply on account of better-than-expected home sales data. The rupee, which opened 20 paise lower in early trade, slumped by a massive 34 paise to close at an all-time low of 83.47 (provisional) against the US dollar. In intraday trade, the rupee touched a low of 83.52 against the American currency. The rupee had earlier recorded its lowest closing level of 83.40 on December 13, 2023. “As the dollar index rallied above 104.08$, this added pressure on the rupee following a positive gap-up opening witnessed yesterday at 83.05. The rupee has fallen sharply by more than 0.30 rupees from its high of 83.05 over the last two days,” said <keyword id="20865684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jateen-trivedi" source="keywords">Jateen Trivedi</keyword>, <keyword id="21053778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vp-research-analyst" source="keywords">VP Research Analyst</keyword>, <keyword id="19956971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lkp-securities" source="keywords">LKP Securities</keyword>. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.72% to 104.17 as concerns over the slowing global economy boosted demand for the greenback. Most Asian currencies suffered from the better-than-expected US economic data, with the Chinese Yuan as well as the Korean Won falling in the trade. The rupee also reversed its strong performance on Thursday, when it had closed 6 paise higher. Even the gains seen in domestic equities on Friday could not stem the fall. Most experts see the currency trading in a volatile zone. “Despite strong gains in the domestic equity markets and profit-taking in global crude oil, the rupee witnessed a drastic fall. We expect the rupee to remain volatile next week and the pair could trade in the range of 83.10-83.70,” said <keyword id="20929844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rahul-kalantri" source="keywords">Rahul Kalantri</keyword>, VP-commodities at <keyword id="20318557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mehta-equities" source="keywords">Mehta Equities</keyword>. Analysts said dollar demand from importers, mainly oil companies, and debt repayment outflows weighed on the rupee. Brent crude is trading at around $85 per barrel on Friday. “Despite the dovish view on interest rates in the US, specific data-driven interest rate cuts are still distant. The rupee's range can be expected to be between 82.85-83.55, with volatility likely to persist," says Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, LKP Securities giving reasons for the currency’s volatility. (With PTI inputs)

Rupee slips to a three-month low after the greenback’s sharp upward march

<ul><li>The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.2% lower at 103.22.</li><li>The Indian rupee settled at a two-month low of 83.19 on Wednesday ahead of the announcement of <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> policy.</li><li>The crude oil prices have been inching up this month, moving from $82.6 per barrel in early March to hover around $86 in the last few days. </li></ul>The Indian Rupee charted a smart comeback on Thursday morning trade, as the dollar index slumped on the latest US <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> commentary. While the US Fed kept its key interest rates unchanged, it also indicated three rate cuts this year despite sticky inflation. The rupee went up by 14 paise to 83.05 against the US currency in early trade. It had settled at a two-month low of 83.19 on Wednesday ahead of the announcement of US Fed policy. The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.2% lower at 103.22. The pair has held above 83 for the second consecutive session reinforcing the bullish sentiment, said <keyword id="20929844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rahul-kalantri" source="keywords">Rahul Kalantri</keyword>, VP of commodities at <keyword id="20318557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mehta-equities" source="keywords">Mehta Equities</keyword>. “It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 82.55-83.50 for the week ahead. Our recommendation is to initiate selling positions within the range of 83.15-83.25, with a stop loss set at 83.50 on a closing basis, targeting levels of 82.94-82.70,” he added. The Indian currency depreciated by 0.3% in March so far, tracking equity markets that have turned bearish, high crude prices —- as well as a strengthening dollar. Foreign institutional investors have been selling in the last few sessions. As of Wednesday, they sold shares worth ₹2,599.19 crore, according to exchange data. The crude oil prices have been inching up this month, moving from $82.6 per barrel in early March to hover around $86 in the last few days. As of Thursday morning, Brent crude is trading at $85.8 per barrel. The Indian benchmark indices opened on a positive note on Thursday with Sensex zooming by over 600 points to 72,762, and <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> was up by 204 points to 22,043 as of 10 am. (With PTI inputs)

Indian Rupee spikes by 14 paise in early trade as dollar retreats on Fed commentary

<ul><li>Gold prices might see volatility in the short term based on changing expectations of the US Fed’s interest rate cuts.</li><li>Its long-term appeal as a safe haven asset remains unchanged due to rising geopolitical uncertainty.</li><li>Investors must make staggered investments into gold at these current prices, advise experts. </li></ul>The world is seeing ‘the great gold rush’! The yellow metal hit another new life high last week. Even as its prices hover around ₹67,000 per 10g — trading close to lifetime highs — analysts are not worried. They say that there is still juice left in the bullion to provide good returns for long-term investors. “We have a bullish outlook in gold for the calendar year 2024, we expect gold might touch $2,280 &amp; $2,350 in the international market, in rupee also it might touch around ₹68,500 to ₹70,000,” says <keyword id="20929844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rahul-kalantri" source="keywords">Rahul Kalantri</keyword> VP of commodities at Mehta Equities. Last week, gold prices rallied by 4%, aided by a fall in the US dollar and bond yields. Its sharp surge was unexpected and out of fist for many experts, and it could fluctuate in the near term based on changing the US Fed’s interest rate cut expectations. Yet, few doubt its long-term appeal. “While there will be fluctuation in the short term, gold has given solid returns for long-term investors. Due to the geopolitical situation and sentiment in the global economy, it will see good demand. Besides, there is no trigger that will put negative pressure on gold,” Hareesh V, head of commodities at Geojit Financial Services tells Business Insider India. Central banks, hedge funds &amp; more As many economies across the world face negative GDP growth, slowdown and more uncertainty, gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset has been growing. Central banks across the world bought a record 1081.9 tonnes in 2022 and 1037.4 tonnes in 2023, as per the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-gold-council" source="keywords">World Gold Council</keyword>. Many classes of investors are betting on it. “Hedge funds also increased their long bet on gold at record levels. Record $11.3 billion flowed in the gold market after it broke its major resistance of $2,050 per troy ounce in the international markets,” said Rahul Kalantri. As per the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, net long positions increased to 1,09,763 contracts, a whopping jump of 95% from last week. This indicates that they are betting on its long-term value creation. “The global gold exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows which are negative so far, may contribute to large inflows into gold in coming months. In addition, geopolitical factors may keep risk premium higher in gold prices over the long term,” says Tapan Patel, fund manager – commodities, <keyword id="20929846" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tata-asset-management" source="keywords">Tata Asset Management</keyword>. How should investors look at gold? Investors, however, must be ready to see volatility in the short term, caution experts. A relentless rally in any commodity entails several risks, at least in the short term. “The global market is uncertain about the time and quantum of the rate cuts from the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>. The long-term price volatility may ease gradually once the US Fed starts the first pivot of the current rate cycle which will support gold prices to rally further as we have seen historically,” explains Tapan Patel. Experts advise investors to make staggered investments in the commodity. “One can invest in gold on a systematic basis, in small grammage preferably. Because in the long-term it’s a solid asset. It has almost doubled in the last five years,” says Hareesh. <keyword id="20929845" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="agrees-patel" source="keywords">Agrees Patel</keyword>, “Investors may increase gold exposure at least 8-10% of the portfolio in a staggered manner from the current price levels ahead of market uncertainty and high volatility. Gold provides value protection to the portfolio during market uncertainty.”

Gold rush to continue as experts expect prices to touch ₹70k/10g, staggered investment advised

The <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> appreciated 71 paise to 80.69 against the American currency in early trade on Friday, as moderating <keyword id="13906482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-CPI-data" source="Orion">US CPI data</keyword> coupled with the fall in the dollar index boosted investor sentiments. Forex traders said factors like positive domestic equities and weakness in crude oil prices also supported the local unit.At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 80.76 against the dollar, then gained further ground to touch 80.69, registering a rise of 71 paise over its previous close. On Thursday, the rupee appreciated 7 paise to close at 81.40 against the <keyword id="6368584" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="Orion">US dollar</keyword>.Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.02 per cent to 108.18 on cooling US CPI data.US headline CPI print came in at 7.7 per cent year-on-year (0.4 month-on-month). Core CPI print which excludes the volatile food and energy components also came in lower at 6.3 per cent year-on-year (0.3 per cent month-on-month), IFA Global Research Academy said in a note."We expect the dollar index to remain weak and could test 105.00 levels in the short-term," said <keyword id="1724291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rahul-Kalantri" source="Orion">Rahul Kalantri</keyword>, VP of Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.27 per cent to USD 93.92 per barrel."We expect the rupee could gain strength in today's session after a sharp fall in the dollar index and could test 80.80 levels in upcoming sessions," Kalantri added.In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 1021.78 points or 1.69 per cent higher at 61,635.48. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty rose 282.70 points or 1.57 per cent to 18,310.90.Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday as they purchased shares worth Rs 36.06 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/government-to-employ-drones-ai-to-check-air-quality-and-fight-pollution/articleshow/95443802.cms">Government to employ drones, AI to check air quality and fight pollution</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/lung-blockages-growth-retardation-and-allergies-this-is-how-air-pollution-is-affecting-your-childs-health/articleshow/95442684.cms">Lung blockages, growth retardation and allergies — This is how air pollution is affecting your child’s health</a>

Rupee gains 71 paise to 80.69 against US dollar in early trade

On Monday, <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> experienced a modest uptick compared to last week and the weekend that followed. In India, today’s price for 22 karat gold stands at ₹6,665 per gram, while 24 karat gold is priced at ₹7,271 per gram. Concurrently, on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), June futures contracts for gold increased by ₹309, or 0.43%, reaching ₹71,565 per 10 grams. <h3> Check gold rates in different Indian cities on May 27, 2024</h3><table class="redcator-table-advance" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; box-shadow: none; width: 468pt; font-family: Merriweather; table-layout: fixed; padding-bottom: 10px !important; background-image: inherit !important; background-position: inherit !important; background-size: inherit !important; background-repeat: inherit !important; background-attachment: inherit !important; background-origin: inherit !important; background-clip: inherit !important;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">City </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">22-Carat </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">24-Carat </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Delhi </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,800 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,860 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Mumbai </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,650 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,710 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Kolkata </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,650 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,710 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Chennai </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹67,200 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹73,310 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Bengaluru </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,650 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,710 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Hyderabad </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,650 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,710 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Ahmedabad </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,700 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,760 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Pune </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,650 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,710 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Surat </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,700 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,760 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Nagpur </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,650 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,710 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Kerala </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,650 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,710 </td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Vijayawada </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹66,650 </td><td style="padding: 5pt; border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">₹72,710 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/gold-rate-today-india-24th-may-mumbai-delhi-kolkata-bengaluru-chennai/articleshow/110383276.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Click to view the gold rate details from last Friday</a> At the start of last week, gold reached an all-time high of $2,450. However, this surge was short-lived. Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd., noted that concerns over a prolonged higher monetary policy halted the rally. What followed was gold prices experiencing their largest weekly drop in eight months, with June gold futures falling nearly 5% from their peak, marking the worst selloff in this period. In international markets, gold edged up on Monday but remained near a two-week low from the previous session. This occurred as investors adjusted their expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut after the Federal Reserve indicated a likely delay in monetary policy easing. Gold rates fluctuate daily due to a myriad of short- and long-term factors, including supply and demand shifts, economic indicators, geopolitical developments, currency movements, investor sentiment, and more. Given the dynamic nature of the precious metals market, effective monitoring and analysis of pricing data are crucial for investors and traders to make informed investment decisions. While these data points offer valuable insights into market trends and factors driving price movements, investors are advised to perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions. As the day progresses, it is important for investors to remain vigilant and monitor gold rates closely for any emerging trends or market developments. By staying informed about these daily price fluctuations, investors can identify potential trading opportunities and make well-informed investment decisions. For daily updates and in-depth analysis of gold rates, continue following our coverage on Business Insider India. Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Rates are subject to change from time to time and across multiple geographical locations. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

Gold rate today (May 27, 2024): Gold prices today in prominent Indian cities

<ul><li><keyword id="19741479" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wedding-gold-sales" source="Orion">Wedding gold sales</keyword> are seeing recycling on account of high prices, but it’s a zero sum-game.</li><li>If allocation of gold is higher than 15% in a portfolio, profits can be booked but that is not strongly advised.</li><li>Experts believe that there will be another spike in <keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">gold prices</keyword> in 2024, once the US Fed changes its stance on interest rates which will shift focus to gold. </li></ul>Jayasri Vadapalli, 54-year-old homemaker from Hyderabad has been trying to exchange her old-fashioned gold jewellery pieces for a while now. After gold prices hit a new-high in December, she was thrilled to hear that the necklace she purchased eight years back is now worth twice what she paid for. “I thought of exchanging it for another set,” she said. But her plans were thwarted as she learnt that she missed the festive-period discount season. As per reports, there has been a surge in people recycling old gold like her, during the ongoing wedding season. Prices are of no consequence as exchanging old gold for new jewellery is a zero-sum game, say experts. “There is no gain to be made when people recycle gold. In fact, it’s a bad idea to exchange when prices are high as no jeweller will give any offers when there is a rush,” Jateen Trivedi, VP and research analyst at LKP Securities tells Business Insider India. Book profits or hold? India is sitting on physical gold holdings which are estimated anywhere between 25,000 to 27000 tonnes. It’s all worth a lot more after the recent spike, but little can be realized from it, as most of it is in the form of jewellery — which is not sold unless there is a specific need or an emergency. “Traditionally, Indians have been advised to safeguard their future by saving or investing in gold. While considering physical gold, it is usually not purchased for investment purposes so they could hold it for their respective purpose,” says Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities , Mehta Equities. Agrees Trivedi,“There is no woman in India who would sell her jewellery no matter what the prices are or how much profits there are in it unless there is a financial crunch or need for family. The amount of physical gold in the form of bars which is held for trading purposes can be sold to book profits, but that percentage is very low.” It’s very unlikely that even traders would liquidate their holdings, since analysts expect gold to see another spike once the US Fed goes in for rate cuts to support growth. “We advise as much as 10-15% of the portfolio to be in gold holdings. Any incremental holdings can be sold to book profits as we look at gold holding strategically and not tactically. If prices run up a lot, they can be sold to book profits but prospects for 2024 look good, so they shouldn’t miss out on that,” says Ghazal Jain, fund manager of alternative investments at Quantum AMC. Should you buy more? Most experts expect some short-term correction from the all-time high to the tune of 5-7% in the next few months – offering a brief but decisive entry point. “After the first quarter of 2024, we might see another positive cycle after interest rate cuts,” says Trivedi. Jain also says that the outlook is positive even if there could be some volatility in the next few months. “We suggest individuals could consider shifting to Sovereign Gold Bonds, offering the dual advantage of gold investment and earning interest over time,” says Kalantri. There is another factor at play that can offer long-term support to prices is the aggressive central bank purchases of gold. Apart from the yellow metal’s safe haven status, de-dollarization is also adding to its lustre. “One of the main drivers of gold demand is China, India, Russia, and Turkey, which buy record amounts of gold to protect their economy from dollar fluctuations and increase their financial independence,” says a report by Kedia Advisory. China, which is the biggest global buyer of oil, has been in talks with Saudi Arabia to sell them oil in yuan since 2022. “It is possible that the Saudis may have asked for the yuan to be backed by gold, to bolster its lack of free convertibility. This could explain why the Chinese central bank has been buying more and more gold each year,” explains Jamal Mecklai, CEO of Mecklai Financial in his note. China has already announced its goal of raising gold holdings to 5%, and its share at the end of Q2 2023 is at 3.84%. “The possibility that China may see fit to push the share of its gold holdings even higher than 5%, we may well be seeing just the start of a real bull market in gold,” adds Mecklai. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/stellar-listing-gains-book-profits-if-there-are-bumper-gains-say-experts/articleshow/105630290.cms">Stellar listing gains: Book profits if there are bumper gains say experts</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/private-equity-vc-players-make-a-killing-as-ipo-rush-yields-them-10000-crore/articleshow/105649353.cms">Private equity &amp; VC players make a killing as IPO rush yields them ₹10,000 crore</a>

Gold rush: Don’t recycle or book profits yet, another bull-run on the way say analysts

<ul><li>For the next few sessions the <keyword id="109488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rupee-value" source="Orion">rupee value</keyword> is expected to be guided by the <keyword id="75201" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar-index" source="Orion">dollar index</keyword>.</li><li><keyword id="35208" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar" source="Orion">Dollar</keyword> index expected to remain volatile as it awaits data like US GDP and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) unemployment data and more.</li><li>Most experts see rupee trade in the 82.7-83 band again, even as recovery attempts are at play. </li></ul>The Indian rupee’s value against the dollar has been fluctuating for the last few days due to rising crude oil prices and a stronger dollar index. In the near term, it’s expected to trade in the 82.2-83 band in spite of recovery attempts, experts say. On Wednesday, the rupee appreciated by 11 paise to 82.69 against the USD dollar in early trade. For the next few days the rupee value is expected to be guided by the dollar index. The dollar index has been up by more than 2% this month over expectations of rates remaining high for a longer period. Most experts now see a 62% chance of rate hike in November 2023 from 42% earlier, says a Bank of Baroda report. The Hawkish commentary of Fed chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium did not help. The index has turned volatile in the last two sessions and experts see more of it ahead as a lot of US economic data is expected this week. “The upcoming week holds a flurry of important economic data, including US GDP and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) unemployment data, which are likely to contribute to heightened volatility in the market. Traders will closely monitor these data releases for potential market-moving insights,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst at LKP Securities. Many more factors are expected to influence the dollar index. “In the short term China plays an important role in influencing the Dollar index. China is trying to boost its economy by a different rate cut and stimulus package which support Yuan and limited gains of the US dollar,” says Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities. Domestic factors &amp; INR vs Dollar The rupee has also been tracking the domestic markets which have been in positive territory with FII inflows and even IPO-specific inflows helped prop up the currency value in the last few sessions. “Positive participation in the capital markets by FPIs and FIIs is contributing to the rupee's stability. As such, the rupee's trading range is anticipated to fluctuate between 82.45 and 82.95, with various factors influencing its trajectory," said Trivedi. Crude oil prices are going up due to various factors and that’s been affecting any possible sharp gains on foreign inflows. The crude oil prices are also oscillating amidst supply concerns and demand worries. Brent crude is trading at around $83.6 per barrel, and its upward movements are key to rupee value in a country which is a net importer of crude. In the near-term, the rupee value is expected to fall. “Recovery attempts are in play, but they are expected to be limited to 82.8. If it holds, expect an extended downside to 82.2. Else, expect to get back into the 82.7-83 band again,” said Anand James, chief market strategist at Geojit Financial Services. Kalantri sees support for a rupee at 83.10 against USD. “In the short term, we are expecting USDINR might touch to 82.10 level while for the long term due to the central election this year we might see our rupee depreciate against the dollar which would push the rupee lower towards 83.5 and 84.7 level,” he added.

Volatile dollar index will keep moving the rupee value, say experts

<ul><li><keyword id="91748" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="indian-rupee" source="Orion">Indian Rupee</keyword> hit a new low in November, in spite of weakness in the dollar.</li><li>Most experts say it’s weakening due to fundamental reasons, and the stress might remain.</li><li>Analysts say that <keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="60" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">rupee</keyword> is seeing resistance at upper levels and might trade in the ₹83.2 to ₹83.38 in November.</li></ul> The Indian rupee has been on a seesaw since 2022, thanks to a multitude of factors. A big reason for the weakness in the INR has been the sharp appreciation in the US dollar. The dollar index has steadily risen since the Federal Reserve started hiking rates and capital flows reversed from riskier assets. So if the US dollar should depreciate, the local currency should gain, right? But this has not happened in the last few weeks. The US greenback weakened and almost all currencies – Euro, Pound and Yen appreciated against the dollar in November, except the INR and Turkish Lira. On the contrary, the rupee hit a new low of ₹83.40 against the dollar on November 10, and has been volatile ever since. The reason, experts say, is pressure from importers. “The rupee has been under pressure, more on the side of fundamentals. Exporters are holding back to make a gain expecting the rupee to come down while importers have asked their banks to buy dollars now for future payments. This has led to a mismatch in demand and supply, which has pushed down the rupee,” explain Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. In the month of October, India’s trade deficit widened to hit a record high of $31.46 billion. That’s a sharp rise from $19.37 billion in September, according to government data. Another pressure point is the FPI sell-off that kicked off in September. Their net inflows have been robust at $12 billion in 2023. But since September, they’ve sold off stock to the tune of $5 billion as US bond markets became attractive. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="RBI’s men, horses and dollars" text="RBI’s men, horses and dollars">RBI’s men, horses and dollars</cmsannotation> It’s customary for the Reserve Bank of India to weigh in, sell dollars and pull the rupee when it falls too low. It has done so thrice earlier in recent times. The first time was in October 2022 when the rupee fell below ₹83 for the first time. It helped prop it up again in December, and once more in February 2023 when it threatened the same levels. “Finally, in August 2023, it once again fell below ₹83 and this time, all the RBI’s horses and all the RBI’s men were not able to generate sufficient upward momentum; since September 15, the rupee has struggled just below 83,” said Jamal Mecklai, CEO Mecklai Financial in his note on November 20. Like Sabnavis, Mecklai too cites fundamental troubles that RBI is unable to protect it from. But if it wants to, it’s in a comfortable position to sell dollars again. On Friday, India’s central bank said that its forex reserves have increased by $5.077 billion to $595.397 billion during the week ending November 17. Weakness to continue Most experts expect rupee to trade anywhere in the range of ₹83.2 to ₹83.38 to dollar for the rest of November. A breakout on either side of this range could provide further insight and guide future trading decisions, “We anticipate a slightly negative trajectory for the rupee, influenced by global market weaknesses and the prospect of a rebound in the US Dollar index. However, inflows from IPOs and a weak tone in crude oil prices might offer support to the domestic currency,” says Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities. Future contracts too in rupee traded in a narrow range this week. Until more information on fundamental weakness comes in, the stress is widely expected to remain on the Indian currency. “The pressure on the rupee is likely to remain and an ‘orderly’ decline, whatever that means, is on the cards,” Mecklai sums it up. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/november-rain-for-primary-market-great-ipo-party-helps-companies-mop-up-of-1-5-lakh-crore/articleshow/105470997.cms">November Rain For Primary Market: Great IPO party helps companies mop up ₹1.5 lakh crore</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbi-governor-asks-realty-companies-to-stress-test-their-books/articleshow/105411235.cms">RBI governor asks realty companies to stress test their books</a>

Rupee hits a new low in November despite fall in dollar index

<ul><li>Almost all the top <keyword id="82905" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="metal-stocks" source="Orion">metal stocks</keyword> rose in a one-month period with Jindal Stainless and NMDC posting over 20% gains.</li><li>Troubles in China coupled by robust domestic activity is holding up the sentiment, experts say.</li><li>A few analysts believe that the profitability of metal companies will be hit in FY24 as raw material prices remain elevated. </li></ul>Indian metal stocks have been rallying for the last one month, supported by a flurry of positive macroeconomic data, and an anticipation that steel prices will rise. Almost all the top stocks in the Nifty Metals Index were trading in the green over a 30 day period — with a few like Jindal Stainless and NMDC rising by over 20%. The exceptions were Vedanta, which was lower, while JSW Steel and Hindustan Zinc registered moderate gains. Nifty metals index also moved up by 5.3% in the last one month. “Fresh buying is being seen in these stocks as steel prices are rising. Moreover, metal stocks have not moved much in the last two years and in the last ten days they have given a breakout and all the stocks have jumped suddenly,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities told Business Insider India. An ICICI Securities report said that the prices of steel product Hot Rolled Coil in the traders’ market rose slightly by ₹270 per metric tonne in the week ended August 30, on expectations of demand pick-up and low channel inventory. “In longs, major steel producers hiked prices for the third time during the month as secondary rebar prices are up 10% MoM on average. India’s export prices rose by $10 per metric tonne week on week though overall prices in South-East Asia remained stable WoW,” the I-Sec report said. Moreso, bad news in China has also added to the positive sentiment in Indian metal stocks. A few sintering units have been asked to curb operations in Tangshan, and I-Sec says that production curtailments and flat production policy might take centre-stage in the coming weeks. China’s production cuts can reduce their imports to India and elsewhere, allowing local producers to gain an upper hand. A volatile Dollar Index has been trading in the negative zone for the last week, which offers support to the rise of metal prices as metals index and dollar index are inversely related. “We expect dollar index to trade rangebound with negative bias led by US Fed at the fag end of the rate hike cycle; Euro to appreciate against US dollar or remain stable as the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to increase benchmark interest rates at a relatively faster pace as compared to that of US Fed; cooling off in inflation and global macro recovery,” said a report by SBI Securities. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Stock </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">30-day change </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Jindal Stainless </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">21% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Tata Steel </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10.7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NMDC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">21.8% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Hindustan Copper </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">11.7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Jindal Steel &amp; Power </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8.3% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">SAIL </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9.3% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Hindalco </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">National Aluminum </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9.7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Vedanta </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">-2.1% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">JSW Steel </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">0.48% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Hindustan Zinc </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1.6% </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source: NSE Domestic industry on an upswing Even as China’s economy is in doldrums, Indian economic data has been supportive with the first quarter GDP growth coming in at 7.8<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/indias-economy-grows-by-7-8-in-q1-2023-24-nso-data/articleshow/103250673.cms">% which is higher than expectations</a>. Also, purchasing managers index (PMI) hit a<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/indias-manufacturing-pmi-rises-to-a-3-month-high-in-august/articleshow/103272843.cms"> three-month high in August</a>. Moreso, domestic industry is expected to remain charged due to a pre-election infrastructure activity. “The Indian government is supporting the domestic industry through various measures like countervailing duties (CVD), PLI schemes etc. End user industries like auto, consumer durables, real estate, infrastructure, cap goods are witnessing healthy growth traction,” said SBI Securities. A few brokerages however are of the opinion that a rise in raw material prices might hit the profitability of metal companies in the fiscal year of FY24. Coking coal prices have gone up by 14% month-on-month in August. While domestic industry may hold steady, the demand from global markets is still in the grey zone, even with a stimulus package announced in China. “There are chances of a recessionary environment in developed countries in the coming year. Although export duty has been nullified by the Indian government, the probability of increase in steel demand globally remains low in our view,” says a report by IDBI Capital. In the long term, steel companies see a good demand and healthy operating environment as top five players have planned major capex —- spending as much as ₹55,000 crore per annum — that’s twice as much as they spent in the last five years. Their confidence in the Indian infrastructure story which is where 70% of steel is consumed, adds to the toughening sentiment around metal stocks. Kalantri expects metal sector stocks to give 30-40% returns over a one-year period. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Text"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div>

Metal stocks gain from price rises and Chinese troubles

<ul><li>In the national capital, <keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">gold prices</keyword> climbed by ₹450 to ₹59,350 per 10 grams on Thursday. </li><li>The dollar index slipped to seven week lows after the Fed meeting outcome, leading to safe-haven demand for precious metals. </li></ul>Gold prices bounced back on Thursday after retracing for two straight days. Its prices jumped over 1% to end the day at $1969.6 per ounce. In the national capital, gold prices climbed by ₹450 to ₹59,350 per 10 grams on Thursday. Analysts believe that the precious metal prices will move ahead with a positive momentum. The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points to 4.75-5% on Wednesday. The dollar index slipped to seven-week lows after the Fed meeting outcome and the US 10-year bond yields also slipped below 3.50% once again that led to<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/investment/news/as-markets-turn-topsy-turvy-sovereign-gold-bonds-offer-hopes-of-a-safe-haven/articleshow/98545327.cms"> safe-haven demand for precious metals</a>. “Gold prices rose after the Fed raised interest rates; however, it indicated that further increases in borrowing costs might be postponed due to the recent failure of two US banks. Gold has traditionally been regarded as an inflation hedge, and a low-interest-rate environment makes non-yielding bullion a more appealing bet,” said Prathamesh Mallya, AVP- research, non-agri commodities and currencies, Angel One. Silver also zoomed ₹815 to ₹69,800 per kilogram on Thursday. In the overseas markets, both gold and silver were trading higher at $1,975 per ounce and $22.84 per ounce, respectively. “The Fed is having to balance inflation risks and economic stability, both are factors that could drive further safe-haven demand for precious metals,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities. In the last two weeks, troubles at four banks – Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic and Credit Suisse — have sent global equities into a tizzy. That, however, also helped gold prices breach the ₹60,000 per 10 gram this Monday. Going ahead, analysts believe that the gold prices will continue to trend higher. The US treasury secretary <keyword id="116249" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="janet-yellen" source="Orion">Janet Yellen</keyword>, during a hearing before a Senate sub-committee, said that regulators aren’t looking to provide ‘blanket’ deposit insurance to stabilise the US banking system. “With prospects of nearing an end to the fastest rate hike in decades coupled with a looming recession and Yellen’s comments, we might see gold prices trading with a positive momentum,” said Ravindra Rao, VP- head commodity research at Kotak Securities. Kalantri however believes that gold prices could be volatile saying that gold has support at $1,955-1,942 while resistance is at $1,986-1,998. Analysts also predict that gold<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/gold-likely-to-reach-70000-levels-by-year-end/articleshow/98862160.cms"> prices might touch ₹70,000</a> per 10 grams by the end of the year. (With PTI inputs) SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/gold-likely-to-reach-70000-levels-by-year-end/articleshow/98862160.cms">Gold likely to reach ₹70,000 levels by year end</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/investment/news/as-markets-turn-topsy-turvy-sovereign-gold-bonds-offer-hopes-of-a-safe-haven/articleshow/98545327.cms">As markets turn topsy turvy, sovereign gold bonds offer hopes of a safe haven</a>

Gold, silver prices zoom after Fed rate hike, analysts see positive momentum ahead

<ul><li><keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">Gold</keyword> prices decline 1% in August as bond yields and the greenback continue to trend higher.</li><li>Prices are unlikely to find support, if the bear steeping trend continues and long-term bond yields remain elevated for a prolonged period of time.</li><li>Near-term trigger for gold prices could come from a sharp increase in demand for physical gold from India and China. </li></ul> Gold is not glittering all that much as central banks continue to hike rates and bond yields continue their upwards trajectory. In August gold prices declined 1% as the dollar continued to strengthen. Gold tends to underperform when long-term yields continue to rise faster than short-term yields. This is known as “a bear steepening”, and it is usually seen during a reflationary or early business cycle period, say experts. While this is good news for economic conditions across the world, it is not so for bullion prices. According to <keyword id="142987" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="wgc" source="Orion">WGC</keyword>, the outlook for gold is not looking very promising at present because “bear steepeners” tend to be bullish for risk assets and more challenging for hedge assets like gold, especially during ‘bear +’ periods (a subset of a bear steepener) where long and short rates are both rising together. While everyone expects long-term yields to remain elevated for much longer and data emerging from the US is looking soft, economic slowdown is a reality. In events like these or even when there is a hard landing, gold tends to do well. However, since July gold has declined by 3%. For the last three straight months, money has flown out of gold ETFs (exchange traded funds). Gold backed ETFs, saw net outflows of $2.5bn in August, with the total AUM falling by 3% to $209bn whilst holdings dropped by 46t to 3,341t. The fall in gold prices in August has been the weakest since February. Global gold ETFs have seen net outflows of $7.5bn year-to-date, with European funds contributing the most. Collective holdings have lost 130t over that time. Ravindra Rao, Vice President and Head of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, says: “COMEX gold prices extended previous day’s losses and closed $1944.2 per troy ounce after upbeat economic data from the US boosted the greenback and treasury yields, raising the opportunity cost for holding the yellow metal. The dollar index rose towards 105 levels, while US 10-year yields closed higher at 4.28% after US ISM Services PMI unexpectedly jumped to 54.5 in August 2023.” The services PMI growth is the strongest the US has seen in six months. The jobs data that will emerge from the US this week will be in focus for gold prices. The outlook for gold continues to be uncertain. The only reason that prices may increase would be due to higher demand for physical gold by India and China. Local wholesale gold demand picked up in China in August by 22% month on month mainly due to Chinese Valentine’s Day during the month. Cumulative inflows into gold backed exchange traded funds were postive too, mainly driven by China. Gold will only shine if the economic conditions deteriorate very sharply or if demand for the precious metal rises materially in India and China. Gold imports by India were down 24.15% in FY23. According to Rahul Kalantri, vice president Commodities at Mehta Securities: “For short term gold would trade in the range of $1,920-$2,078 either side breakout of the range could give further direction based on FED action. For a longer term if gold breaks and sustains above $2078 then we would see a big upside move that could go till $2,240 &amp; $2,365 levels. In the domestic market, gold might come to levels of Rs 64,500 &amp; Rs66,800.”

Gold loses sheen in August as economic data shows no sign of slowdown

<ul><li>In a meeting over the weekend, Saudi Arabia, the OPEC kingpin, decided to extend production cuts taken in April through to 2024. </li><li>Brent <keyword id="102132" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="Orion">crude oil prices</keyword> had averaged $75.6 per barrel in May 2023, as compared to a peak of $122.9 per barrel it hit last June. </li><li>In Asia trade on Monday, Brent crude oil rose by as much as 2.5% after Saudi Arabia’s decision was announced.</li></ul>Crude oil is likely to trade with an upward momentum after oil cartel OPEC+ decided to extend its production cuts through to 2024. Analysts who track the black gold prices are now predicting that Brent crude prices may hit $100 per barrel by the time 2023 ends. In a meeting over the weekend, the cartel decided to extend a surprise production cut taken in April. In April, OPEC+ or Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, had agreed to cut production by 1.6 million barrels per day. This comes after their April cut did not produce the desired effect, as a soft global economic outlook continued to hammer down prices. Speaking <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/crude-may-touch-100-105/-barrel-by-early-2024-dr-fereidun-fesharaki-explains-why/articleshow/99257171.cms?from=mdr">to the Economic Times</a>, Fereidun Fesharaki of Facts Global Energy, said that he expects Brent to hit $105 per barrel by the time 2024 starts. G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research, also holds a similar view. In Asia trade on Monday, Brent crude oil rose by as much as 2.4% before settling at around $77 a barrel. “West Texas Intermediate futures jumped almost 5% early in the session before paring gains to trade under $73 a barrel while global benchmark Brent changed hands at about $77,” said a morning update by research firm SMIFS. Before the production cut, <keyword id="6354418" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-prices" source="Orion">oil prices</keyword> have been rising ever since the US announced upbeat non-farm payroll data on Friday. “We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile in today’s session. Crude oil has support at $72.10–71.30 and resistance at $73.60–74.50 in today’s session. In INR, crude oil has support at ₹5,860-5,770, while resistance is at ₹6,020–6,100,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities. Brent crude oil prices had averaged $75.6 per barrel in May 2023. During the same time last year, in June, they peaked to $122.9 per barrel. OPEC+ accounts for around 40% of the world’s oil production, and its decisions have a sway over the market and the prices. Yet, after Germany has slipped into recession, and demand from China yet to pick up, the prices of the commodity have been soft. Saudi goes for a voluntary production cut The world’s largest oil producer Saudi Arabia, the major player in OPEC, said that it will trim oil production by another millions barrels per day in July. With the voluntary cut, Saudi Arabia’s production fell to the lowest level for several years. In April, the Middle Eastern nation had announced a voluntary cut of half a million barrels per day. “The kingdom (of Saudi Arabia) also said the latest cut could be extended depending on market conditions. This brings Saudi Arabia’s total production levels to around 9 mbpd in July compared with 10.5 mbpd in April. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also said he will do whatever is necessary to bring stability to this market,” said Ravindra V Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities. The rest of the 23-nation group offered no additional action to buttress the current market, but did pledge to maintain their existing cuts until the end of 2024. “Markets are likely to tilt into a deficit in the second half of 2023, if Chinese demand recovery materializes. With rising odds of a Fed pause in June coupled with tightening supplies, we might see oil prices trading with an upside momentum,” said Ravindra V Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities. Analysts also add that the voluntary cut is taken to drive downside protection, rather than spur a sustained rally. In spite of these moves, oil prices will be driven by a broader outlook of macroeconomic weakness. According to the IMF, g<a href="https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/imf-cuts-indias-fy24-gdp-forecast-to-5-9/articleshow/99411127.cms?_oref=cook">lobal GDP growt</a>h is expected to fall to 2.8% in 2023, after growing at 3.4% percent in 2022. It also expects the growth to settle at 3% percent in 2024. (With IANS inputs) SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/may-auto-sales-rise-10-but-face-multiple-challenges-ahead-says-fada/articleshow/100757818.cms">May auto sales rise 10% but still below pre-Covid level with challenges in store</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/tcs-reliance-industries-and-jio-are-among-indias-top-5-valuable-brands/articleshow/100680163.cms">Two Mukesh Ambani-owned companies are among India’s top 5 valuable brands</a>

Crude oil prices may hit $100/bbl after OPEC+ decision, say analysts

<ul><li>Gold may have lost its sheen over the last six months, but it has still outperformed most other asset classes in 2022.</li><li>The yellow metal rose sharply in March but soon cooled off as the US dollar continued its upward trajectory.</li><li>According to commodity experts, investors with a long-term view on gold can start accumulating gold. If the dollar weakens, <keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">gold prices</keyword> could rally from current levels.</li></ul>Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against inflation, but this theory has been truly tested in 2022. While inflation raged through the year, gold prices have declined for six consecutive months up until September, as the greenback continued to gain strength along with bond yields. The yellow metal rose sharply in March, but soon cooled off as the US dollar continued its upward trajectory. While the long-term triggers for gold are intact, the outlook for the precious metal remains uncertain thanks to the unprecedented rise in the US dollar. According to the World Gold Council’s market commentary report for September: “The surge of the US dollar has been a major headwind for many assets in 2022 and we believe its trajectory for the rest of the year will be a key determinant of gold’s fortunes. But the dollar is facing its own challenges. Rising interest rates, typically another obstacle for gold, appear to be less important to investors now than they were in the first half of the year.” Gold may have lost its sheen over the last six months, but it has still outperformed most other asset classes, claim experts. According to Chirag Mehta and Ghazal Jain of Quantum Asset Management Company, “Gold has given returns of around 7% since the start of Samvat 2078 (Nov 5 2021). This is an excellent performance compared to equities and bonds. The Nifty50 Index returned about -4%, while returns from bonds were nearly flat according to the Crisil Composite Bond fund index. Gold, therefore, once again proved its worth in the portfolio by protecting capital and being an effective diversifier.” So should you buy gold this Dhanteras? The gold bulls say yes, as the world is headed towards more uncertainty. With interest rates rising and growth slowing across major world economies, commodity experts believe that it is a good time to buy gold as the asset class tends to perform well in a stagflationary environment. While gold may still make sense from an investment point of view, the demand for gold jewellery may remain muted this year as inflation may curb discretionary spending. Explains Somasundaram PR, Regional CEO, India, World Gold Council: “With the recent correction in local gold prices and a favourable monsoon, festive sentiment among retail consumers appears to be positive. However, the impact of inflation on household finances may lead to an immediate impact on gold jewellery demand.” Indians continue to remain bullish on gold India is among the world’s biggest consumers of gold. And it has remained a favourite investment class too for many Indians. According to Anarock Research, gold remained a favourite investment for Indian households due to its liquidity and investment size flexibility. A report by Anarock says: “Equities are highly volatile and easily impacted by social, political and economic upheavals. Real estate, always considered a long-term investment, gives portfolio stability, and appreciates with time. The physical nature of the asset, unlike stocks, also ensures limited wealth erosion.” <div type="image" title="gold-etf.table" msid="94997443" hostid="261" sizebytes="65344"></div> What could drive gold prices in future? Gold could rally if the dollar weakens from its 20-year high. Typically, a 1% fall in the dollar, holding all else constant, is associated with a 0.88% rise in gold. Hypothetically, says the World Gold Council’s market commentary report, a full unwind in the DXY, or the dollar index, performance year-to-date return would imply a 13% rise in gold. Any weakness in the dollar would also trigger a rally in risk assets, which would be positive for gold. In India, demand for the yellow metal rose briefly in September and is expected to sustain in October too. If prices continue to correct globally, buyers may increase allocation to gold. According to commodity experts, investors with a long-term view on gold can start accumulating gold, but those with a short-term view can wait for further corrections. Explains Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, “Gold is looking volatile in coming days and could be under pressure due to the Fed hangover. In the domestic market, gold will get good support due to festival demand.” SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tata-consumer-products-profit-grows-36-to-355-crore-in-q2-fy23/articleshow/94992535.cms">Tata Consumer Products profit grows 36% to ₹355 crore in Q2 FY23</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/news/zerodhas-co-founders-nithin-and-nikhil-kamath-donate-100-crore-in-fy22/slidelist/94991823.cms">Zerodha’s co-founders Nithin and Nikhil Kamath donate ₹100 crore in FY22</a>

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Rupee slips to a three-month low after the greenback’s sharp upward march

BI India Bureau

Indian Rupee spikes by 14 paise in early trade as dollar retreats on Fed commentary

BI India Bureau

Gold rush to continue as experts expect prices to touch ₹70k/10g, staggered investment advised

Katya Naidu

Rupee gains 71 paise to 80.69 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

Gold rate today (May 27, 2024): Gold prices today in prominent Indian cities

Kunal Kambli

Gold rush: Don’t recycle or book profits yet, another bull-run on the way say analysts

Katya Naidu

Volatile dollar index will keep moving the rupee value, say experts

Katya Naidu

Rupee hits a new low in November despite fall in dollar index

Katya Naidu

Metal stocks gain from price rises and Chinese troubles

Katya Naidu

Gold, silver prices zoom after Fed rate hike, analysts see positive momentum ahead

Katya Naidu

Gold loses sheen in August as economic data shows no sign of slowdown

Malini Bhupta

Crude oil prices may hit $100/bbl after OPEC+ decision, say analysts

Katya Naidu

Should you buy gold this Dhanteras?

Malini

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