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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Earnings likely grew for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3.</li><li>Top strategists are eyeing 2025 results ahead of what's likely a mid-single-digit advance.</li></ul>Corporate earnings are on pace for their best non-pandemic year since 2018, and market strategists expect the party to continue in the upcoming earnings season and into 2025.Interest rates and inflation have been investors' primary concerns this year, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-recession-warning-signs-bca-research-berezin-2024-9">worries about the labor market</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-jobs-report-sentiment-consumers-elections-recession-inflation-mortgage-rates-2024-9">growth</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rates-pandemic-lows-inflation-supply-chain-geopolitical-bofa-mensah-2024-10">rising geopolitical tensions</a> have also sucked up plenty of oxygen — even though economists generally agree that a recession isn't imminent.Through all that noise, S&amp;P 500 profits have steadily risen and are set to end the year up 9.5%, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset</a>. That's the biggest jump for earnings in six years, other than 2021's robust recovery. Analysts believe 2025 will be even better, with growth of nearly 15% in the cards.<div type="image" title="2024 earnings as of Q2" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984264" hostid="261" sizebytes="55446"></div>Business Insider spoke with six investment chiefs, strategists, and money managers about the earnings and economic trends to watch in the Q3 earnings season and 2025 — plus how investors can position their portfolios for success.<h2 id="cb45912e-0004-415b-94ba-d8fc7736b77e">Q3 earnings will give clues about consumers</h2>Barring a major surprise, investors will learn starting in mid-October that earnings rose for the fifth straight quarter. Profits grew 4.6% in Q3, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset's latest projections</a>, though that would be down substantially from the 7.8% mark that analysts called for at the end of June.However, analysts have a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/why-do-analysts-low-ball-earnings-forecasts">habit of underselling earnings</a>. Nearly 79% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat Q2 estimates — partially due to a low bar, though results were quite strong at 11.2% growth.<div type="image" title="Factset beat rate Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984261" hostid="261" sizebytes="37156"></div>"What we've seen over the past few quarters, I really wouldn't describe as 'blowout growth' that sets up for disappointment going forward," said Mike Reynolds, Glenmede's vice president of investment strategy. Mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth is "pretty sustainable," he added.<div type="image" title="Factset Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984259" hostid="261" sizebytes="29018"></div>Profit margins will be in the crosshairs since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">inflation is slowing</a>, said Anthony Saglimbene, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. He's also keeping a close eye on signs about the strength of consumer spending, or lack thereof, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-wage-growth-investing-strategy-stocks-to-buy-goldman-sachs-2024-9">as wage growth dissipates</a>."There's been a lot of pricing power — not only in technology, but across a lot of the services and goods sides of the equation," Saglimbene said. "Can you hold profit margins in an environment where maybe your costs are becoming more stable, but demand is starting to slow?"Demand is either softening or steadfast, depending on your perspective. Joe Quinlan — who's head of markets strategy at Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America — recently remarked that there's a strikingly wide gap between high-income households and those who aren't well off.The strategy chief recently wrote that a mere 4.4% of US households make up 15% of personal consumption, which is the <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">backbone of GDP</a>. The rich are disproportionately driving economic growth because of the wealth effect, which means they're confident since stocks are rising. Meanwhile, Quinlan noted that <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx">roughly 40% of US households don't own stocks</a>."They're the ones — the lower-income households — definitely feeling the squeeze of higher prices. I know inflation has come down when we look at the metrics, but prices for food, rent, insurance — they're still elevated," Quinlan said, adding that this is limiting disposable income.Although weakness among lower-income households is troubling, strategists don't think it will show up in corporate earnings since consumers broadly are holding up."The consumer is pretty healthy," Reynolds said. "There's maybe some warning signs on the margin on credit-card balances and delinquencies, but it's really not enough to break the camel's back on earnings."<h2 id="e9ed5200-3a27-426c-b63a-a65a628a84e6">Why earnings will thrive in 2025</h2>Although investors have only seen about half of 2024 earnings, which are on track to rise 10%, it's already time to look to 2025."As the year continues, I do think it's not about earnings for this year — it's the trajectory of earnings for next year," said Andrew Slimmon, a lead portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.<div type="image" title="Factset 2024 earnings" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984262" hostid="261" sizebytes="29164"></div>Corporate profits should stay strong and can potentially improve, strategists say, provided that the US economy doesn't slow too much."If the macroeconomic picture holds together, there's an expectation that we should see a bit of a re-acceleration in earnings growth," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.Quinlan agrees and predicted that "earnings will reflect the dynamic and resiliency of the US economy that we just closed the quarter on."Michael Smith, the head of the growth equity team at Allspring Global Investments, said his research also indicates that companies are healthy, at least compared to a few years ago."We talk to our companies quite frequently and do our own work talking to their customers and suppliers, and we really feel like there are still some pockets of strong demand through our economy," Smith said.And even if economic growth comes in light, corporate earnings won't necessarily suffer."There's not always a one-for-one relationship between economic growth and earnings growth," Reynolds said. "You can still see earnings growth at a pretty robust level, even if economic growth moderates to some extent. So again, there's correlation there, but definitely not direct causation."Bears have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-valuations-1929-2000-hussman-2024-9">long warned that this market is overvalued</a>, but unless earnings suddenly plummet, Slimmon suggested that those fears are overstated."As long as Q3 of this year is OK, I think that's where we're going to start next year with close to $280 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P," Slimmon said. "And that is supportive of a stock market that trades kind of closer to 6,000."Analysts' estimates may be ambitious, Saglimbene said. He suspects that Q4 expectations will recede alongside projections for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, though that often happens before quarters."That could be a little bit of a headwind for the market," Saglimbene said. "But again, if we're growing and profits are growing year-over-year, I think the market will look past some of that."Saglimbene later added: "We might not grow by 15% next year in an environment where the economy's growing 2%, but we might grow 7% or 8%. That's a normal earnings growth kind of environment, and I think that's enough to continue to push the market higher."<h2 id="06369d93-53a3-422f-8a02-436b2da92292">3 top places to invest heading into Q3 earnings</h2>When asked which parts of the market look most attractive, strategists consistently identified three sectors: communication services, healthcare, and technology.Large-cap growth stocks have carried the market higher for years thanks to their supercharged earnings. But that has changed in recent months, Saglimbene noted.The strategy chief expects to see broader profit growth, especially in economically sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, and real estate. They may also have more upside since they're cheaper."The areas that have not seen the best profit growth, like cyclicals outside of technology, their profit growth trends could actually improve more than expected because the economy is not headed for recession, because growth is remaining positive, because consumers are still spending," Saglimbene said.Smith agrees that industrials and consumer-focused sectors are worth a look, as are tech and healthcare companies. His investing strategy is centered around finding growth stocks on the so-called "right side of change" that also happen to be discounted. He said he's found more opportunities in small- and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-2025-mid-caps-investing-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-9">mid-sized stocks</a> lately."Money has to find a home somewhere, and it tends to flow to where it gets treated the best," Smith said. "Right now, the relative opportunity is down-cap."

Here's how to invest in the Q3 earnings season as profits re-accelerate despite misplaced recession myths

25 increasingly efficient stocks with profitability heading into the Q3 earnings season: Goldman Sachs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street analysts have high hopes for Meta's third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday. </li><li>Investors are keeping an eye on growth opportunities from AI. </li></ul>Wall Street analysts are upbeat ahead of Meta's third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday after the closing bell. Analysts generally expect positive revenue and earnings figures, thanks to the Facebook parent's AI ad optimization and the firm's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-reorganized-major-businesses-eliminated-roles-whatsapp-instagram-reality-labs-2024-10#:~:text=Meta%20has%20gone%20through%20several,%22efficiency%22%20would%20be%20permanent.&amp;text=As%20of%20March%2C%20Meta%20had,of%202022%2C%20BI%20previously%20reported.">sweeping cost cuts</a>, which included several rounds of layoffs in recent years and saw the firm backing away from some of its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-cuts-spending-reality-labs-meta-report-2024-7">virtual reality projects</a>. Investors will be keeping a close eye on signs Meta can continue that growth, with the company <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=4d0247c89eeec6faa3e72d5dee88e7c60fa1cc284a9699c5902f9e7a696dc773&amp;postID=6720fbaf3a35c2732d44c2bb&amp;postSlug=meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theinformation.com%2Farticles%2Fmeta-develops-ai-search-engine-to-lessen-reliance-on-google-microsoft">reportedly</a> working on a new search tool that will surf the web for its AI chatbot. Wall Street is also looking for strong guidance for the current quarter, though analysts see potential for costs to come in higher than expected.Here's what analysts are saying ahead of the tech giant's earnings report. <h2 id="a8b0515c-9d85-4b4d-b1cf-6fce44552568">"Long-term story is as strong as ever": Bernstein</h2>Meta's long-run growth trajectory looks solid, according to Bernstein senior analyst Mark Shmulik. The stock is up 70% this year and is up 550% since bottoming in 2022."Near term risk and reward feels balanced," Shmulik wrote in a note, adding that the firm had a "perma-bull position on all things Meta.""But the long-term story is as strong as ever. As we look ahead we're constructive on the core business with an expected launch of ads on Threads, continued Reels ramp, more AI/Advantage+ ad tools offer investors top-line upside with a potential TikTok ban not currently priced in," he later added.The firm issued an "Outperform" rating on the stock and a $675 price target, implying 15% upside from current levels.<h2 id="dc7c6a08-8f5f-4c79-812c-4fa35a463037">"Uniquely well positioned to monetize search": JMP</h2>Meta's reported search engine could be a huge positive for the company, JMP analysts said in a note."Meta is uniquely well positioned to monetize search given its 200M+ active SMBs and 12M+ active advertisers," the firm wrote. "To that end, we believe Meta could offer a compelling commercial experience for search given its existing advertiser and SMB relationships while also using search intent signal to power its core advertising product on Facebook and Instagram."The search tool, though, could raise capital expenditures and costs, analysts said, possibly by more than investors are expecting. The firm issued an "Outperform" rating on the stock and a $635 price target, implying an 8% increase from current levels.<h2 id="3ae15c9a-d200-4592-ae15-3f19e716186b">"Top AI pick": Bank of America</h2>BofA analysts expect a "modest" earnings beat from the tech giant on Wednesday. They forecast the firm to report as much as $47.5 billion in revenue, which would represent an 18% year-over-year increase.Meta is a "top AI pick," the analysts added, pointing to a handful of tailwinds, like strong growth in Meta's AI-powered ads business, continued growth among younger users, and more AI growth opportunities in general."Our checks suggest Meta could see strength from: 1) new AI tools and new CRM integration driving higher ROI and incremental ad spend, 2) ramping messaging and Reels monetization, and 3) modest (100-200bps) political ad spend benefit," analysts wrote.The bank reiterated its "Buy" rating and $630 price target on the stock, implying 7% upside from current levels.<h2 id="2fdf202a-5a5b-4d15-a99d-48ed4f86b7d1">"Clear leader in social media": Morningstar</h2>Meta is a "<a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=8e3a91b023e95d600e3f54d96021a46339a33c3d1cf4d2a1d57384a4edc6bc4a&amp;postID=6720fbaf3a35c2732d44c2bb&amp;postSlug=meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningstar.com%2Fstocks%2Fraising-fair-value-meta-stock-ai-ad-leadership">clear leader</a>" on an "unmatched scale" in the social meaning space, Morningstar said in a recent note, pointing to the firm's 4 billion monthly active users across its applications.Investors though, are keeping hawkish eye over signs Meta can sustain its growth, according to Dave Sekera, Morningstar's chief US market strategist."The market is going to be listening for any update on capex spending, specifically on generative AI. I'd really like to hear from them more specifically about how and when they will be able to monetize that spending. That's the big question for Meta," Sekara said. "Other than that, I'll be listening for an update on growth and digital ads; they had a big benefit from ad spending in Temu and Shein over the past couple quarters, so the question is whether that growth will continue or will it start to slow."The firm previously issued a 3-star rating for the stock and a fair value of $560, implying 5% downside from current levels.<h2 id="b7a7a27b-67d4-4195-b1a2-3e4d05b93099">"A tough bar to surpass": CFRA Research</h2>Meta could face challenges ahead due to the risk that growth decelerated in the last quarter, CFRA Research said."META has a tough bar to surpass in upcoming Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. We estimate Q3 growth decelerated to 18% from 22% in Q2 and see further deceleration to 15% in Q4 2024 and 13% in Q1 2025," CFRA senior equity analyst Angelo Zino wrote. He added that the challenge in the coming quarters will be to keep up with strong growth compared to the year-ago quarters. "We think year-over-year deceleration is due to lapping strong growth from China-based advertisers as well as strong Reels impression growth from a year ago. Still, we think digital ad trends remain healthy, with broad-based health across most regions and verticals," Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA, wrote.CFRA raised its price target on the stock to $650 a share, implying 11% upside.

Wall Street is bullish on Meta earnings as analysts eye an AI boost for the tech titan

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla closed 22% higher on Thursday, its best day in years after posting strong earnings.</li><li>Analysts at JPMorgan caution that some of the automaker's growth drivers aren't sustainable.</li></ul>Tesla's earnings beat fueled a huge rally for the stock on Thursday, but JPMorgan is urging caution.Analysts at the bank said that while the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-10?_gl=1*1b1iqo9*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTc3NDk1OC4zMDguMS4xNzI5Nzc1Nzk4LjYwLjAuMA..#wedbush-analyst-dan-ives-sticks-with-bullish-view-on-tesla-despite-recent-volatility?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">strong earnings</a> should boost the stock in the short term, the automaker's growth drivers might not be sustainable in the coming quarters.The analysts correctly called the big reaction in the stock on Thursday post-earnings, with shares rising 22%, but they added that they see some caveats to the company's outlook. "However, we at the same time see several potentially unsustainable drivers of 3Q's better earnings and cash flow performance."The analysts pointed in particular to Tesla's near-record sales of regulatory credits. Tesla can sell credits it receives for producing electric cars to other companies that don't meet government emissions requirements.It's a hugely profitable business, and the credits generated $739 million for Tesla in the most recent quarter, the second-highest amount after the previous quarter's $890 million. While the credits are a huge profit driver in the near term, JPMorgan analysts said that won't last as other automakers introduce their own EVs and buy fewer credits from competitors like Tesla."Investors should be cautious about capitalizing the earnings generated from these (100% margin) credits, given that one of the tenets of the Tesla bull case is the large scale electrification of the automotive industry," the analysts wrote. "As other automakers broaden their electric offerings, they should over time be in a position to generate their own credits, negating and eventually eliminating the flow of competitor payments to Tesla."The analysts also pointed to large working capital benefits, which they say are unsustainable.Tesla saw a large beat on free cash flow in the most recent quarter, but that was in part due to a large increase in the amount due to its suppliers and other accrued liabilities, the analysts say.Tesla has only ever generated more cash from an increase in accounts payable in one other quarter, but at that time, deliveries and production both grew much faster, the analysts said. They wrote in the note that this suggests that this driver of the quarter's strong cash flow is unsustainable and possibly reversing."Automakers are expected to generate cash from working capital as sales rise, given timing differences arising from the favorable trade terms they enjoy with suppliers, but digging more deeply into the benefit, we note only in one quarter has Tesla ever generated more cash from an increase in accounts payable than it did in 3Q24," the analysts said.The automaker reported earnings per share of $0.62 for the third quarter, outpacing analysts' expectations of $0.51. Its operating profit came in at $2.7 billion, exceeding expectations of $2.0 billion and marking a 54% increase from a year ago. The company also announced that its Cybertruck <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-profit-2024-10">has reached profitability</a>.JPMorgan rates Tesla "Underweight" with a December 2025 price target of $135 a share, 48% lower than its Thursday closing price of $260.48.

Tesla earnings have reinvigorated investors but some growth drivers look 'unsustainable,' JPMorgan says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! Add this to the list of things that might scare you about artificial intelligence: losing your home. Real-estate scammers are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/scammers-use-ai-deed-fraud-title-theft-to-steal-homes-2024-10">using AI tools to commit deed theft</a>, with the owner of a $137.5 million mansion saying they're among the victims.In today's big story, Tesla reports earnings this afternoon with the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-q3-earnings-preview-wall-street-auto-margins-robotaxi-2024-10">focus back on its cars business</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Breaking down the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starboard-jeff-smith-74-page-presentation-pfizer-13-monitor-2024-10">74-page slideshow</a> activist investor Starboard presented to Pfizer.</li><li>Tech: Amazon's $100 billion data center dream <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-data-centers-delays-costs-power-labor-shortages-aws-ai-2024-10">is turning into a bit of a nightmare</a>.</li><li>Business: A deadly E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-tied-quarter-pounders-2024-10">sent its share price tumbling</a>.</li></ul>But first, back to basics.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Tesla the car company</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of Elon Musk." height="882" width="1176" msid="114513508" hostid="261" sizebytes="107410"></div>Tesla has spent plenty of time discussing the future, but Wall Street wants to bring the EV giant back to the present.Elon Musk's company reports third-quarter earnings this afternoon, and analysts are focused on its core auto business. Business Insider's Matthew Fox has a rundown on <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-q3-earnings-preview-wall-street-auto-margins-robotaxi-2024-10">analysts' expectations ahead of Tesla's big day</a>.(To get real-time updates on Tesla's earnings, be sure to check out our <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-10">live blog here</a>.)Musk has spent time talking up everything but the cars his company currently sells. From robotaxis to autonomous vehicles and bartending bots, Tesla's earnings calls have been heavily focused on what's next instead of what's now.Tesla has good reason to avoid talking about the present. Its sales dropped for two straight quarters <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q3-deliveries-sales-stock-price-2024-10">before righting the ship in Q3</a>. It'll now take a massive fourth quarter for its 2024 sales to eclipse last year's figure.Touting robotaxis and pitching the company as a leader in artificial intelligence has eased the pain (and helped the stock price), but even that has its limit. Tesla's share price is still down more than 12% year-to-date after its flashy robotaxi event <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-cybercar-analysts-self-driving-fleet-ai-2024-10">mostly fell flat with investors</a>.That's why all eyes are back on its core business of selling cars, including the status of its industry-leading profit margins.The report could signal the worst is behind Tesla … or is yet to come.<div type="image" title="Generel Motors photo collage" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114513510" hostid="261" sizebytes="91326"></div>Tesla also needs to worry about what's in its rearview mirror.General Motors' third-quarter earnings report topped estimates, leading to a nearly 10% surge in its stock. Part of its success included <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gm-stock-earnings-crushing-it-suvs-trucks-evs-2024-10">improved EV growth and profitability,</a> writes BI's Benjamin Zhang. GM now holds a 9.8% share of the US market, trailing only Tesla.That comes during what's been an overall tough time for the EV market. (But a good time for any <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-pile-up-dealer-lots-deals-discounts-leasing-2024-8">who's in the market for one</a>!)While the industry continues to grow, it's at a much slower pace than a few years ago. Automakers have been forced to readjust their strategy around breaking into the market.Overseas, things aren't much better for Tesla. China, the world's largest auto market and an area of growth for Tesla, has gotten increasingly competitive. Domestic rivals <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-chinese-ev-rivals-record-deliveries-pressure-on-elon-musk-2024-10">recently posted a record month for sales</a>, and China's EV giants stole the show at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ev-giants-innovation-ai-auto-show-european-rivals-despair-2024-10">Europe's largest auto show</a>.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Former Abercrombie &amp; Fitch CEO Mike Jeffries <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/former-abercrombie-and-fitch-ceo-mike-jefferies-arrested-2024-10">arrested in sex-trafficking case</a>.</li><li>Starbucks just pre-released its sales figures, and they show <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-quarterly-sales-dropped-as-it-faces-us-china-headwinds-2024-10">its new CEO has an uphill struggle ahead</a>.</li><li>A Michelin star might <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/restaurants-awards-michelin-star-new-york-city-dining-rent-costs-2024-10">kill your favorite restaurant</a>.</li><li>The Polymarket 'whale' is placing as many as 71 bets a minute <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-trump-vs-harris-betting-odds-polls-election-2024-10">in favor of Donald Trump</a>.</li><li>Bhutan is known for prizing happiness. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bhutan-known-gross-happiness-employees-longest-working-hours-in-world-2024-10">Its people also work longer than any other country</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla" height="683" width="1024" msid="114513505" hostid="261" sizebytes="38178"></div><ol><li>Activist investor Starboard aired its grievances to Pfizer. The hedge fund, which reportedly has a $1 billion stake in the drug giant, recently presented <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starboard-jeff-smith-74-page-presentation-pfizer-13-monitor-2024-10">a 74-page slideshow to Pfizer</a>. Its complaints included a lack of R&amp;D spend and a failure to deliver on its drug pipeline.</li><li>The bond market is scrambling to recalibrate itself. Bond yields are rising and prices are dropping as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates-economy-inflation-election-labor-market-2024-10">traders reset their expectations of future interest rate cuts</a>. Strong economic data and a potential Trump win are believed to be the biggest factors preventing more rate cuts.</li><li>Inside Citadel Securities' massive tech rebuild. Ken Griffin's market maker is revamping the tech that powers its trades as it eyes growth. The goal is to prepare the firm for what lies ahead, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-citadel-securities-multi-year-rebuild-trading-technology-2024-10">Citadel Securities' chief technology officer told BI</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Illustration of an Amazon data center wrapped in an orange-colored electrical cord, with three lightning bolt symbols" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114513501" hostid="261" sizebytes="86046"></div><ol><li>Amazon's data center dream is battling "zombie" facilities, high costs, and labor shortages. Amazon plans to spend more than $100 billion expanding its data centers over the next decade. But the ambitious plan means it's increasingly running into physical constraints. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-data-centers-delays-costs-power-labor-shortages-aws-ai-2024-10">According to internal documents viewed by BI,</a> electricity and labor headwinds are hampering the company's long-term data center growth.</li><li>The plane-tracker who got on Elon Musk's bad side says he's lost faith in big social media. College student Jack Sweeney ran Threads accounts that tracked the movements of celebrities' private jets — or at least he did until Monday, when Meta removed the accounts citing safety concerns. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jet-tracking-meta-ban-jack-sweeney-faith-social-media-2024-10">Sweeney told BI</a> he thinks he was targeted by one of the public figures he's tracking.</li><li>Disney and Apple are on the outs. Disney is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-apple-app-store-hulu-disney-plus-2024-10">no longer letting new customers sign up for Hulu or Disney+ via Apple's App Store</a>, which takes up to 15% of the monthly fees generated by Disney's subscription services. Though the companies are still working together on some projects, the move points to a notable rift in the pair's long-standing relationship.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Illustration of block homes." height="2000" width="4000" msid="114513507" hostid="261" sizebytes="419628"></div><ol><li>Should America be more like Whoville? To bring down housing prices, America needs to break from its cookie-cutter tradition and build more weird homes. These five wacky home ideas could help <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-prices-america-should-build-weird-houses-apartments-real-estate-2024-10">create the housing we need</a>.</li><li>The CDC said a deadly E. coli outbreak was linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounders. Shares in the Golden Arches dropped more than 9% in extended trading on Tuesday following the announcement that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-e-coli-outbreak-tied-quarter-pounders-2024-10">one person died and 10 others were hospitalized</a>. A total of 49 cases across 10 states have been reported thus far, but the extent of the outbreak is "likely much higher," the CDC said.</li><li>Does anyone know what Disney's post-Bob Iger plan is? The company's announcement that it would name a new CEO in 2026 — far later than most expected — has left <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-bob-iger-ceo-succession-plan-questions-2024-10">more questions than answers</a>. The stakes are high: Disney flubbed Iger's last exit plan so badly that it had to bring him back after less than two years.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>Billionaire Marc Lasry claims in a new lawsuit that a former employee is trying to extort him for $50 million. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/marc-lasry-sues-former-employee-demanding-50-million-2024-10">Here are the most eye-catching excerpts</a>.</li><li>Diddy's children break their silence on his arrest and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/diddy-children-arrest-accusations-response-2024-10">compare the accusations to 'conspiracy theories.'</a></li><li>Elon Musk's X has made hundreds of thousands of dollars <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-x-america-super-pac-advertising-revenue-2024-10">from his super PAC</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Tesla, Boeing, IBM, Coca-Cola, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Harvey Weinstein appears in New York court on additional charges of sexual assault.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Tesla's earnings report will include refocusing on its car business, and it comes as competition heats up

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election win has sent the US stock market to fresh highs.</li><li>Morgan Stanley says three risks could upend the ongoing Trump trade.</li></ul>Equity investors have embraced Donald Trump's return to the White House, but the post-election rally isn't entirely risk-free.So far, US indexes have hit <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">new highs</a> as investors look ahead to what Trump's promised policies mean for earnings growth. But while market momentum remains firmly upward, Morgan Stanley outlined three risks that could upend it.First, a significant jump in Treasury bond yields could stir anxiety among equity investors, the bank said.Trump's election has already sent yields surging, as Wall Street expects his policies to boost inflation, keeping interest rates elevated. As it became clear Trump won last week, the 10-year note jumped as much as 21 basis points to 4.47% on November 6.So far, this hasn't been enough to discourage stock investors, but Morgan Stanley suggests that further increases could spell trouble for equities. For instance, concern over the government's ballooning deficit could drive higher yields, the bank said.JPMorgan analysts share this outlook, noting that the stock market rally would <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/treasury-bond-yields-selloff-risk-trump-trade-tariff-immigration-tax-2024-11">face fatigue once bond yields reach near 5%</a>.<div type="image" title="Morgan Stanley chart comparing bond term premium with S&amp;P 500 P/Es" height="1138" width="2190" msid="115223450" hostid="261" sizebytes="75850"></div>Second, strength in the US dollar might mean issues for large-cap stocks.After the election, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/dollar-rises-to-highest-since-july-as-polls-close-in-key-states">Bloomberg dollar index surged</a> by the most in four years, reaching its highest since November 2023.As with bond yields, the greenback is surging on the prospect that US interest rates will remain higher for longer under Trump. Meanwhile, foreign currencies fell against the dollar over worries that the president-elect will implement wide-sweeping tariffs on all US trade."If dollar strength continues at the current pace into year-end, it could slow down multinationals' EPS growth for 4Q24 and 2025," Morgan Stanley wrote, later adding: "This would likely be felt more in the large cap indices (where mega cap weights tend to have higher foreign sales exposure) than in the average stock which is why the broadening out can continue under the surface even if the dollar proves to be a headwind."Third, equities keep getting more overpriced.As this year's bullish investors raced to gain exposure to market themes tied to artificial intelligence, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> has increasingly moved away from its fundamentals."More specifically, the y/y change in the S&amp;P has rarely been this disconnected from earnings revision breadth," the analysts wrote, adding: "Once again, this is more of a consideration for the major indices than for the average stock but it does suggest that more upside in multiples is likely contingent on the data confirming a reacceleration in growth."But this shouldn't be treated as a warning signal to turn bearish, Piper Sandler analysts said in October. Even with the S&amp;P overvalued by 8% last month, a downturn catalyst would need to appear to crush <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overvalued-sp500-bullish-earnings-momentum-rally-valuations-2024-10">market momentum</a>. That could include a sudden jump in interest rates or inflation.

3 risks that could derail the Trump trade in stocks, Morgan Stanley says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla investors will be closely watching profit margins when the company reports earnings on Wednesday.</li><li>Tesla stock is down 13% this year compared to the S&amp;P 500's 22% gain.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/TSLA-stock">Tesla</a> will report third-quarter earnings results after the market close on Wednesday, and Wall Street will be hyper-focused on the company's core auto business.That's a shift from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-cybercar-analysts-self-driving-fleet-ai-2024-10">the recent hype surrounding Tesla's robotaxi,</a> which is still years away from hitting the market. At the end of the day, Tesla gets the bulk of its revenue and profits from selling cars, and Wall Street wants to see the company return to growth mode in its core auto business.The company is on track to deliver about the same number of cars this year as it did in 2023, and it has seen a steady deterioration in its profit margins due to aggressive price cuts earlier this year.Tesla stock is down 13% year-to-date, compared to a 22% gain for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> over the same time period.However, some analysts on Wall Street expect the upcoming third-quarter earnings print will be a sign that the worst is behind Tesla.Here's what Wall Street expects from Tesla's upcoming earnings report.<h3 id="c6cb087f-2fb6-4381-a552-4a20fa42e990">Barclays: 'Back to fundamentals'</h3>"With Tesla's Robotaxi Day passed, we believe the focus for Tesla at least for now shifts back to fundamentals," Barclays analyst Dan Levy said in a note last week.Levy expects Tesla to beat earnings estimates, with estimated earnings per share of 68 cents versus consensus of about 60 cents."After a run of sharply negative revisions to earnings estimates, Tesla estimates have largely stabilized. Volumes are expected to be flat y/y, margins have troughed and are set to improve, reg credit revenue can be a solid boost as other OEMs rely on Tesla to achieve compliance, Tesla Energy is generating solid growth, and opex may trend lower for now as Tesla realizes the cost saves of headcount reductions," Levy said.Those points, along with the fact that Tesla stock sold off after its robotaxi event, give Levy confidence that the company's third-quarter earnings will be a positive catalyst for the stock.Aside from Tesla discussing the earnings results and guidance on its conference call, Levy said any commentary about plans for a lower cost vehicle could move the stock."We also wouldn't dismiss the notion that Tesla could forgo a 'Model 2.5,' instead focusing its resources on rolling out the [autonomous vehicle] strategy — such a move would likely be treated quite negatively by the stock," Levy said.Barclays rates Tesla at "Equal Weight" with a $220 price target.<h3 id="55b61526-09a2-4615-8aee-89c3f03d9563">Wells Fargo: 'Volumes now, margin pain later"'</h3>After Tesla reported "disappointing" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q3-deliveries-sales-stock-price-2024-10">third-quarter deliveries earlier this month</a>, Wells Fargo expects the company to make up for the shortfall in sales by offering "aggressive finance promos globally," analyst Colin Langan said in a note last week."We est. the Q3 promotions are equivalent to ~8% lower effective px cut," Langan said, adding that he expects the company to miss Wall Street's third-quarter earnings estimates.Langan estimates that Tesla's automotive gross margin excluding credits will be 13.6% in the third quarter, down from 14.6% in the previous quarter.Wells Fargo rates Tesla at "Underweight" with a $120 price target.<h3 id="33c229bf-f9ee-44cc-ab57-9c97d0ce38bb">Wedbush: 'Margins will be a key focus'</h3>Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is staying bullish on Tesla stock, arguing that the company should show a return to growth in its third-quarter earnings call and forward guidance."We expect generally in-line 3Q headline numbers with some slight upside likely on the margins front showing a bottoming on this key metric," Ives said in a recent note.Ives said Tesla should be able to deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2024, and that should rise to more than 2 million vehicles in 2025.But perhaps more important than vehicle deliveries for Wall Street is Tesla's profit margins."Margins will be a key focus on the conference call"," Ives said.He added that investors will want to see this key metric trending in the high teens for the third and fourth quarters and heading toward 20% in 2025. That should soothe fears about further price cuts and convince investors that better days are ahead, Ives said. Wedbush rates Tesla at "Outperform" with a $300 price target.<h3 id="bbd2143e-2db9-4747-b579-3bcc60b4465c">Bloomberg Intelligence: 'More pain to come'</h3>Tesla's aggressive price cuts of 20% over the past year, combined with a plunge in trade-in values for Tesla vehicles, suggests that there's "more pain to come."That's according to Bloomberg Intelligence director of credit Research Joel Levington, who said in a Tuesday note that Tesla's price declines are putting its luxury brand identity at risk.Additionally, Levington said that with Tesla facing more competition, it needs to release a lower-cost vehicle."Tesla is poised to give up share as rivals from Acura to Volvo create a tsunami of new EV products that will flood the markets, making the lower-cost Model 2 and updates of its data product line critical," Levington said.

Wall Street shifts focus back to Tesla's core auto business ahead of earnings as robotaxi hype fades

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks tumbled on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst decline of 2024.</li><li>Tesla missed earnings estimates for the second quarter, and Alphabet's YouTube ad revenue missed.</li></ul>The technology sector led US stocks lower Wednesday, with the Nasdaq plunging 3% as it headed for its worst trading day of the year.Investors fled the tech sector amid disappointing earnings on Tuesday, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-tsla-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-7">Tesla missing estimates</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a> reporting that YouTube ad revenue fell short of expectations last quarter. Tesla shares were down more than 10% at 12:50 p.m. ET, trading at $220.85, while Alphabet shares fell 5% to $174.40."This is the fourth successive quarter of earnings misses, a first for Elon Musk's visionary EV maker," David Morrison, a senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said of Tesla in a note. "The question is how this will affect sentiment going forward? Will today's sell-off prove to be an isolated, knee-jerk reaction which quickly dissipates? Or could it poison the well as the Q2 earnings season picks up?"Investors are eyeing a slew of coming high-profile earnings reports, with Meta, Apple, and Amazon on deck to present their financials next week.On the economic front, Thursday will see the reveal of second-quarter GDP figures, and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure is set to be published on Friday. The personal consumption expenditures index is expected to show inflation continued to cool last month, with prices rising by 2.5%. GDP, meanwhile, is expected to clock in at 2.1%, higher than the revised first-quarter reading of 1.4%.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after midday on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,456.69, down 1.78%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,015.58, down 0.85% (-342.51 points).</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,469.09, down 2.95%.</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-signals-flash-outlook-healthy-bull-rally-more-upside-2024-7">There are four bullish signals</a> pointing to more gains ahead for the stock market, Bank of America said.</li><li>There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-the-big-rotation-trade-is-from-cash-to-stocks-2024-7">big rotation from cash to stocks</a> — and it could help push the S&amp;P 500 up 17% by the end of the year, according to UBS.</li><li>The stock market is approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-q2-gdp-pce-earnings-drive-stocks-higher-2024-7">two catalysts that could help spark the next leg of the bull run</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-outlook-inflation-housing-job-market-unemployment-economy-2024-7">The Fed is going to cut rates only once in 2024</a> as shelter inflation is too high and the job market remains too hot, Vanguard said.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 0.9% to $77.65 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was up 0.7% to $81.57 a barrel.<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> inched higher 0.4% to $2,417 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped two basis points to 4.218%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> inched up to $66,723.</li></ul>

Nasdaq tumbles 3% in worst day of the year amid tech-earnings rout

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Smaller stocks may be poised to outperform amid a low bar for earnings, Citi analysts say.</li><li>Smaller stocks may also be hedged against risks related to a Trump presidency. </li></ul>After a rally this summer, inflows to smaller stocks have dwindled in recent weeks, but the under-the-radar corner of the market may be poised to outperform in the coming months, Citi analysts said.The analysts point to a host of factors, from a low bar for earnings beats to factors related to a potential Donald Trump victory, as signs pointing to an upcoming rally for small-caps.The analysts said that smaller stocks have a lower bar to clear for earnings growth, making it easier for them to impress Wall Street when they report results. They say small and mid-cap stocks are pricing in 2%-10% growth in earnings-per-share over the next three years, while the S&amp;P 500 is expected to show 15%-22% EPS growth."While earnings surprises have been stronger up cap thus far in Q3 reporting, larger or similar percentage beats in certain Small/Mid Cap sectors/names may be rewarded more by markets given a lower bar into results," the analysts said. "The S&amp;P 500, driven by the Magnificent 7, may need stronger results and upward forward estimate revisions to justify current levels."Second, smaller stocks may be hedged from risks related to a second Donald Trump presidency. Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs of 20% on all imports and tariffs of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*w1ioyc*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDQ2ODgwMS4zNDcuMS4xNzMwNDY5MzgxLjQwLjAuMA..">60% or more on goods from China</a>. The analysts said small-caps have historically been hedged against tariff-related risks. They pointed to how small caps initially outperformed on his surprise victory in 2016, and again after he implemented steel tariffs during his first term. "In both cases, Small/Mid Cap round-tripped relative performance gains when economic data came in softer than expected," the analysts said.At the same time, the market doesn't seem to be expecting much strength from small caps in the case of a Trump win, meaning they have further room to run, the analysts say."Conversely, with low implicit growth expectations, Small/Mid Cap to some degree could be a Trump trade with relatively little priced in at current levels," they said.Finally, their third point noted that small caps generally are less liquid, though they noted that focusing on smaller names could be a trade-off given the opportunities. "Impressive Large Cap performance has clearly created some hesitancy to move down cap, and related, down in liquidity. To us, a move down cap in search of alpha opportunities could help manage certain risks, offering investors a trade-off for lesser liquidity relative to Large," the analysts said.

3 reasons investors should rotate into smaller stocks, according to Citi

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street has set a low bar for Q3 earnings, Bank of America says.</li></ul>Earnings season is <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10?_gl=1*1a7yk92*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQwODEzOC4yNDAuMS4xNzI4NDA4MjA1LjYwLjAuMA..">kicking off</a> this week and companies should expect to be rewarded as long as they express optimism about lower interest rates. That's according to Bank of America, which notes that apart from that dynamic, the bar for third-quarter earnings set by Wall Street is pretty low. The analysts expect 2% earnings growth, below consensus estimates of 4% and second-quarter earnings growth of 11%. The second quarter's mild beat, coupled with a slowing macro environment, has lowered investors' expectations going into this earnings season, the analysts say."The bar isn't high. As long as companies have managed through macro headwinds and see early signs of improvement from lower rates, stocks should get rewarded," the analysts said in a Tuesday note.They say consensus estimates have already priced in weakness, with earnings-per-share estimates cut by 4% for the quarter, which makes an earnings beat more likely amid lower rates.The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9"> 50 basis points</a> at the end of the third quarter, sending the S&amp;P 500 to record highs as markets began pricing in the coming interest-rate easing cycle. Lower rates will spark a rebound for the most rate-sensitive sectors, like manufacturing and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">housing</a>, which were most impacted by the Fed's previous hiking cycle, the analysts said. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its second-longest downturn in history in the last two years, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-sales-buyers-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-mortgage-redfin-interest-2024-9">existing home sales</a> fell almost 40% from a year ago, showing clear signs of a downturn amid high rates.The analysts recommend watching those sectors for early signs of improvement from lower rates ahead of earnings."Many say the hiking cycle didn't have much impact on the economy, which is 70% services/consumption. However, rate-sensitive sectors (e.g. manufacturing and housing) have certainly been hurt by the Fed's actions," the analysts said."But now that an easing cycle has officially started, we expect a healthy recovery in manufacturing and housing activity, boosting earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500 into 2025," they added.So far, 62% of the 21 companies that have already reported third-quarter earnings topped both earnings-per-share and sales estimates, compared to 49% historically and 47% last quarter, the analysts say.While stocks are set to continue posting mild earnings beats this quarter, the analysts say the focus isn't on the present quarter — it's on the outlook for future quarters amid Fed easing.They expect the market rally to <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-rally-fed-rate-cuts-inflation-housing-fundstrat-2024-1">broaden out</a> into the next year, with the Magnificent Seven set for slower earnings growth in the third quarter. Growth in the other 493 stocks in the benchmark index should accelerate to double-digit growth beginning in the fourth quarter."Although Mag. 7 earnings are still expected to outpace Other 493 earnings, we expect the narrowing growth differential should be a big driver of the market broadening out, given the extreme valuation and positioning gap," the analysts said.

The bar for earnings is low, and stocks should rise as long companies are feeling upbeat about lower rates, BofA says

As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

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