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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Last week, Trump was said to be deciding between two leading candidates for Treasury Secretary.</li><li>Reports say Trump has been having second thoughts and is expanding his search to four major prospects.</li></ul>Two weeks after securing his return to the White House, president-elect Donald Trump has swiftly been forming his Cabinet for 2025.Trump already announced six of the people he wants to lead the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11#marco-rubio-4">15 executive departments</a>, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the Department of Health and Human Services and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for the State Department.He appears to be taking a slower pace as he chooses his nominated successor to Janet Yellen, the current Secretary of the Treasury.The new Treasury Secretary will likely have two immediate tasks: Helping the US avoid default when the national debt ceiling expires in January 2025 and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">extending the 2017 Trump tax cut</a>, which is worth trillions and is mostly set to expire next year.The president-elect was initially said to be considering just two candidates, but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-broadens-hunt-for-top-treasury-job-after-jostling-became-messy-e20eb6b6">The Wall Street Journal</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/trump-treasury-candidates.html">New York Times </a>reported that he's been having second thoughts and expanded the list to four prospects.With Trump seemingly still unsure over his choice, it's also possible that another candidate may emerge.Here are the top picks Trump is reportedly now considering for Secretary of the Treasury. A press contact for Trump's transition team did not respond to a request for comment from BI.<h2 id="ac3f4426-a376-4840-ad0c-600691195aaa">Kevin Warsh</h2><div type="image" title="Kevin Warsh is dressed formally and sits as speaks at a panel with three other people." height="2558" width="3837" msid="115408301" hostid="261" sizebytes="1354142"></div>Warsh, 54, is a former Morgan Stanley banker and one of the newer contenders.He was an economic advisor to President George W. Bush from 2002 to 2006 and a governor of the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011. During the latter period, Warsh was a central figure in shaping the nation's response to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, working to rescue major ailing banks.More recently, he's been working on Trump's transition team, helping with economic policy and personnel, according to The Journal.Warsh appears to have been in the president-elect's good graces for several years. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2019/02/03/trump-compliments-powerful-men-handsome">Axios reported</a> that Trump praised Warsh as a "really handsome guy" when the two met in 2017 at the White House.Trump had been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/kevin-warsh-would-take-a-hammer-to-the-fed-but-he-wouldnt-break-it.html">floating Warsh</a> that year as a frontrunner for Fed chair. He eventually picked Jerome Powell for the role.Warsh is often seen as a financial hawk, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/24/former-fed-governor-kevin-warsh-the-fed-doesnt-seem-to-have-a-serious-theory-of-inflation.html">saying in October</a> that he believed the Fed "doesn't seem to have a serious theory of inflation" and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-rates-are-a-sideshow-in-the-fed-drama-economy-monetary-policy-central-bank-53bb6d9e">writing in July</a> that it moved too slowly to curb surging prices.In his July commentary, he blamed inflation on "irresponsible government spending and excessive money printing." Warsh has also been critical of America's burgeoning debt.<h2 id="73ed19fc-c4d6-4b1c-af49-0c08335e71cb">Marc Rowan</h2><div type="image" title="Marc Rowan speaks at a financial leaders' summit in Hong Kong." height="2100" width="3150" msid="115408297" hostid="261" sizebytes="210070"></div>Rowan, 62, is a billionaire investor who leads Apollo Global Management, which he cofounded in the 1990s. It now has nearly $700 billion in assets under management. Apollo recently announced that it plans to double its assets under management to $1.5 trillion by 2029.The Journal and the Times reported that Rowan, like Warsh, is one of Trump's new candidates.The Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that while the billionaire's aides are in touch with Trump, Rowan isn't actively trying to secure the Treasury Secretary role and hasn't spoken to Trump personally about such a position.But the Times also wrote that Trump has been telling his staff that he's impressed with Rowan, who Bloomberg estimates to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/marc-j-rowan/">worth $10.9 billion.</a> Rowan has said that US economic concerns must be fixed by what he called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apollo-ceo-marc-rowan-elon-musk-represents-wholesale-change-and-the-us-needs-it-155238301.html">"wholesale change,"</a> which he said Trump and his new administration would bring.That's broadly in line with how Trump has framed his Cabinet picks, as key movers who will upset the status quo and push fresh reform.Rowan has kept a relatively low profile on his views about government policy, though he recently voiced <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/apollo-ceo-rowan-warns-that-aggressive-rate-cuts-could-backfire">concerns</a> that the Fed could overstimulate the economy with interest rate cuts.<h2 id="e6cea6ab-a68b-4816-b297-f3f995f40039">Howard Lutnick</h2><div type="image" title="A man stands at a Trump/Vance podium" height="2769" width="4300" msid="115408282" hostid="261" sizebytes="238422"></div>Lutnick, 63, is the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, a Wall Street financial services firm.Lutnick has been serving as Trump's transition cochair with Linda McMahon, of WWE royalty. He's been a friend of the president-elect for decades, repeatedly holding fundraisers for Trump.In August, Lutnick hosted an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/with-lutnick-s-help-trump-raises-15-million-at-hamptons-event">event at his home</a> in the Hamptons that raised $15 million for the Trump-Vance campaign.Lutnick has aligned himself closely with Trump's rhetoric. In late October, he expressed a vision for the US economy, describing America in the year 1900 to a crowd at Madison Square Garden, saying it was a time when the "economy was rocking.""We had no income tax, and all we had was tariffs," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1b4UZn1GAk&amp;ab_channel=HowardW.Lutnick">he said to a cheering stadium.</a> Lutnick has also said that under Trump, corporate taxes would be raised for US giants like Apple and Tesla. He said that Elon Musk, a Trump ally, welcomed such a move if it applied to all big players. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-lutnick-treasury-secretary-bessent-2024-11">Musk has endorsed Lutnick</a> for Treasury Secretary.Lutnick is also known for steering Cantor Fitzgerald after the 9/11 attack, which killed 658 of its 960 employees at the World Trade Center.<h2 id="4b1b9607-5cdd-4853-b1e5-347ec1d4ffa3">Scott Bessent</h2><div type="image" title="A man in a red vest and blue sweater goes for a walk" height="2931" width="4396" msid="115408293" hostid="261" sizebytes="791788"></div>Bessent, 62, was one of the original frontrunners for Trump's Treasury Secretary.His involvement emerged early last week when <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-paulson-lead-us-treasury-secretary-under-trump-sources-say-2024-11-08/">Reuters reported</a> that the founder of macro investment firm Key Square Capital Management had been meeting with Trump at the Mar-a-Lago resort.Bessent worked for the liberal philanthropist George Soros from 1991 to 2015, making a name for himself by betting big against the British pound, which collapsed in 1992, and then against the Japanese yen as it weakened in 2013.He left Soros' firm in 2015 to start Key Square, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/the-ex-soros-executive-who-is-trumps-new-obsession-4be2d493">The Journal</a> reported that he hasn't spoken to the billionaire in years.Bessent has been vocal in his support for Trump, telling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/18/exclusive-scott-bessent-kamala-harris-economic-illiterate-will-crash-economy/">Breitbart</a> in August that Vice President Kamala Harris would have crashed the economy if she was president.He wrote <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/markets-hail-trumps-economics-he-will-repair-biden-damage-pro-growth-investment-boost-f3954dbe?">an opinion column</a> just after the election, praising Trump for a stock market rally after his win and knocking <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/nobel-prize-economists-harris-economic-plan/index.html">23 Nobel Prize-winning economists</a> for predicting that the president-elect's agenda would be "counterproductive."The investor laid out his ideas for the economy in his written piece, calling for the Trump administration to reduce government borrowing and to reform President Joe Biden's policies for investment in a "quixotic energy transition."Like Lutnick, he's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/scott-bessent-talk-tariffs-its-time-revitalize-alexander-hamiltons-favorite-tool">advocated for an economy</a> that's more reliant on tariffs and weaned off income tax, saying the move would restore America's position on the world stage and help curb China's growth.However, The Journal reported that some conservatives in Trump's circle were concerned about Bessent's past experience working for Soros, who has attracted the ire of the MAGA base for his support of left-leaning causes.

Meet the top 4 candidates Trump is considering for Secretary of the Treasury

The retention lists of all ten franchises for the <keyword id="6354831" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Premier-League" source="Orion">Indian Premier League</keyword> (<keyword id="6354312" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="IPL" source="Orion">IPL</keyword>) season next year were finally unveiled on Thursday, with several big names like Jos Buttler, Aiden Markram, Glenn Maxwell, Faf Du Plessis, KL Rahul, Rishabh <keyword id="19900230" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pant" source="keywords">Pant</keyword>, <keyword id="19904097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shreyas-iyer" source="keywords">Shreyas Iyer</keyword> etc being let go by their respective franchises. The surprising retentions and releases by all ten franchises have laid down the foundation for what could be an exciting, fun and record-breaking auction later this year. Let us look at several takeways from the auction: <h2>Several captaincy options available</h2> With the release of IPL winning skipper Shreyas Iyer from Kolkata Knight Riders (<keyword id="19924483" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kkr" source="keywords">KKR</keyword>), Rishabh Pant from Delhi Capitals (DC) and KL Rahul from Lucknow Super Giants, three top-class Indian captaincy options are available. <h2>Auction could be defined by wicketkeepers pulling double/triple duties</h2>The announcement of retention lists have seen many wicketkeeping options being released by their respective franchises, including Pant (from DC), KL (from LSG), Ishan Kishan (from Mumbai Indians) and Jos Buttler (from Rajasthan Royals). With all of them having captaincy experience at various levels, including international <keyword id="1521" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Cricket" source="Orion">cricket</keyword> in case of Pant, KL and Buttler, several teams could go after them. Their experience and strong records as wicketkeepers and top-order batters, particularly opening except for Pant, will help teams find a captain, wicketkeeper and an opener in just one player and save them plenty of money. <h2>No English players retained? Could withdrawing/not playing full season be a cause?</h2> No England players have been retained by franchises this team around. Various stars players like Jos Buttler, Liam Livingstone, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali, Sam Curran, Harry Brook, Phil Salt, Will Jacks etc have been let go. These players missed out some part of their season due to international commitments, while Harry Brook pulled out due to personal reasons. England batter Jason Roy pulled out of IPL ahead of this season due to personal reasons. These all developments damaged the team balance at times, with several teams dependent on their overseas talent. Has the habit of not honouring contracts and missing matches caused this move? The hammer strikes at auction could answer this question. <h2>Caribbean power trusted ahead of mega auction</h2>Four of current top West Indies stars, Nicholas Pooran, Shimron Hetmyer, Andre <keyword id="20287010" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="russell" source="keywords">Russell</keyword> and Sunil Narine have been retained by their respective franchises. Pooran has dominated the T20 run charts this year, scoring a record-setting 2,251 runs in 68 matches with a century and 15 fifties at a strike rate of 160.90. Hetmyer is one of the best finishers in T20 circuit and Rajasthan Royals trusts in his abilities. Russell (222 runs in nine matches and 19 wickets) and Narine (488 runs and 17 wickets) have also been reaped rewards for their title winning performances last season and their loyalty to KKR brand. While seven West Indies talents have been released, namely, Shai Hope, Sherfane Rutherford, Kyle Mayers, Shamar Joseph, Romario Shepherd, Alzarri Joseph and Rovman Powell, the four modern-day T20 greats keeping their spots safe with the franchise shows how much trust franchise has in Caribbean power. And who knows, the released names could get brought using right-to-match card or find a new home at a higher price. <h2>Another setback for Ishan Kishan?</h2> Five-time champions Mumbai Indians (MI) placed their trust in Indian core, consisting of skipper Hardik Pandya, former captain Rohit Sharma, pacer Jasprit Bumrah, 360-degree hitter Suryakumar Yadav and young left-hander Tilak Varma. It was expected that Ishan could retain his place, given his youth and experience with the franchise. Aged just 26, he had spent seven seasons with the franchise and did reasonably well. However, after being brought for Rs 15.25 crores ahead of 2022 season, the price tag seemed to have caught up with Kishan. In next 44 matches for the franchise till the 2024-season-end, Kishan scored 1,192 runs in 43 innings at an average of 28.98, with just seven fifties. While these numbers are not bad, it could be debatable that he did not deliver as per expectations, with 19 scores being below 20. In the 2024 season, he could score just 320 runs at an average of just over 22, with just a fifty to his name. After being excluded from the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) central contract this year after not participating for red-ball cricket, this is another big setback for Kishan, who has not been considered for international cricket despite participating and doing well in red-ball tournaments like Buchi Babu Trophy, Duleep Trophy and Ranji Trophy recently. <h2>DC era 2.0 on cards?</h2> With wicketkeeper-batter and biggest superstar of the franchise, Pant released from the franchise and looking for a new franchise as per several media reports, Delhi Capitals could be moving to their 2.0 era, placing trust in young, under-the radar names like Axar Patel (235 runs with two fifties and 11 wickets in 2024), Tristan Stubbs (378 runs with three fifties and three wickets), Abhishek Porel (327 runs with two fifties) and Kuldeep Yadav (16 wickets at an average of 23.25) after good performances last year. Franchise has also released big time stars like David Warner, Mitchell Marsh, Anrich Nortje, Prithvi Shaw. Could this be the start of a new era for DC? Only time will tell. <h2>Shreyas Iyer joins unfortunate list of captains</h2>The IPL winning captain Shreyas Iyer has been let go after winning the title for his franchise KKR this year, their first in a decade and overall third. While many argue his batting stats of 351 runs in 14 innings with two fifties at a strike rate of 146.86 could be a reason behind his release, the other half of the story is that the in-form KKR top-order did not leave the middle-order with much to do. His recurring fitness issues, which caused him to miss 2023 season, also could be a reason. Irrespective of what the reason could be, one thing is for sure, Iyer is up there with likes of Adam Gilchrist (released by Deccan Chargers in 2011 after title win in 2009, semifinal finish in 2010), David Warner (released by Sunrisers Hyderabad ahead of 2022 season despite 2016 title win and multiple playoff finishes) as one of the most unluckiest captains in IPL. <h2>Strong faith in Indian uncapped/inexperienced stars</h2>The franchises have been extremely bold this time around, opting to release experienced, household Indian/overseas names and placing their trust in several Indian uncapped/inexperienced players. Out of a total of 46 players retained across all franchises, 36 players are Indian. Out of these, 10 players are uncapped Indians stars. These players are Abhishek Porel, Rahul Tewatia, Shahrukh Khan, Ramandeep Singh, Harshit Rana, Mohsin Khan, Ayush Badoni, Shashank Singh, Prabhsimran Singh, Yash Dayal. Also, out of other 24 capped Indians, 13 players have played less than 30 international matches and eight have played 10 or less international games for India. Of these 24 uncapped players, no one has all format experience for India and only two have Test cricket experience, Dhruv Jurel and <keyword id="20022019" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rajat-patidar" source="keywords">Rajat Patidar</keyword>. Notably, it is Jurel, who has just played international matches for India, who has received the biggest pay hike, going from Rs 20 lakh this season to Rs 14 crores next season. <h2>End of 'KGF' era for Royal Challengers Bengaluru?</h2> With stars like Faf and Maxwell released, it could spell the end of 'Kohli, Glenn, Faf' (KGF) era for <keyword id="20282652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rcb" source="keywords">RCB</keyword>, which lasted from 2022-24. During this phase, they all scored heavily for RCB. Despite a lull in 2022 season, Virat scored 1,721 runs in 45 matches and innings at an average of 44.12, with three centuries and 13 fifties. Skipper Faf also scored 1,636 runs in 45 innings at an average of 38.05, with a strike rate of 146.99 and 15 fifties to his name. Maxwell sits at the third spot with 1,266 runs at an average of 28.77 and a strike rate of over 159, with 12 half-centuries in 50 innings. The only player that came closer to the trio was Indian wicketkeeper-batter Dinesh Karthik, who made 796 runs in 44 matches and 42 innings at an average of 29.48, with three fifties. If RCB had Virat-AB de Villiers-Chris Gayle in 2010s, KGF dominated the RCB batting numbers in 2020s. When RCB starts rebuilding their side from scratch in the auction, they would have a huge task in hand of finding one or two highly popular, capable and consistent foreign stars to help Virat unleash the carnage in a "Play Bold" avatar. Also, with the Rajat Patidar being retained for 11 crores, RCB might have made it clear that he could be the next big Indian batter the franchise invests in. His exceptional spin abilities have made a lot of difference for the side. Ever since he was brought by the franchise in 2021 for Rs 20 lakh, Patidar has played 27 matches, scoring 799 runs at an average of 34.73 with a strike rate of 158.84 and having registered a century and seven fifties. A complete list of retained players is as follows: <ul><li>Chennai Super Kings: Ruturaj Gaikwad, Matheesha Pathirana, Shivam Dube, Ravindra Jadeja, MS Dhoni</li><li>Delhi Capitals: Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Tristan Stubbs, Abhishek Porel</li><li>Gujarat Titans: Rashid Khan, Shubman Gill, Sai Sudharsan, Rahul Tewatia, Shahrukh Khan</li><li>Kolkata Knight Riders: Rinku Singh, Varun Chakaravarthy, Sunil Narine, Andre Russell, Harshit Rana, Ramandeep Singh</li><li>Lucknow Super Giants: Nicholas Pooran, Ravi Bishnoi, Mayank Yadav, Mohsin Khan, Ayush Badoni</li><li>Mumbai Indians: Jasprit Bumrah, Suryakumar Yadav, Hardik Pandya, Rohit Sharma, Tilak Varma</li><li>Punjab Kings: Shashank Singh, Prabhsimran Singh</li><li>Rajasthan Royals: Sanju Samson, Yashaswi Jaiswal, Riyan Parag, Dhruv Jurel, Shimron Hetmyer, Sandeep Sharma</li><li>Royal Challengers Bengaluru: Virat Kohli, Rajat Patidar, Yash Dayal</li><li>Sunrisers Hyderabad: Pat Cummins, Abhishek Sharma, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Heinrich Klaasen, Travis Head.</li></ul>

From spotlight on uncapped stars to big releases, a look at key takeways from latest IPL retention lists

The polls were wrong, again. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/startup-success-secret-vcs-founders-nate-silver-on-the-edge-2024-8">Nate Silver</a> ran 80,000 simulations of election outcomes and found that Vice President Kamala Harris won in 40,012 of them. The race that Donald Trump ultimately ran away with was deemed neck and neck for days — unless you looked at the prediction markets.Election betting on Kalshi and Polymarket had been favoring Trump for weeks. Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-polymarket-top-apple-app-store-downloads-election-betting-surge-2024-11">Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store</a> on Tuesday evening.On Wednesday morning, the platforms claimed that their victory was as resounding as Trump's."Last night, Kalshi showed how prediction markets can decisively outperform polls and traditional media," Kalshi posted on X. "Not only did our markets offer a sharper view of the Election, we called it before anyone else.""Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else," Shayne Coplan, the company's 26-year-old CEO, posted. "The global truth machine is here, powered by the people." He says Polymarket conveyed a Trump victory two to three hours ahead of traditional media. "It is an inflection point in news and politics," he told CNBC. "Trust the markets, not the polls," he said on X.Should we? And can the prediction markets ride their momentum now that the election's over?<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/betting-markets-polls-trump-election-win-polymarket-kalshi-2024-11">Polymarket and Kalshi</a> have been building quietly, and they view elections as their chance to go mainstream. Coplan has said he was running the crypto-based company alone in his bathroom in 2020. Kalshi was founded in 2018 by two MIT grads. Both became household names just this fall. In addition to politics, people can bet on sports, business, and pop culture, with contracts about whether <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-salary-database-elon-musk-pay-strategy-2024-11">Elon Musk</a> will post on X a certain number of times in a week and whether Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. In late October, Robinhood began offering election betting. There's also PredictIt, which is operated by Victoria University in New Zealand but focuses on US politics.Xavier Sottile, the head of markets at Kalshi, tells me that election night exceeded even the high expectations Kalshi had set for itself. A US appeals court lifted a freeze on Kalshi in October, allowing the site to list contracts that allow for bets on the election. More than 500,000 people were using Kalshi concurrently on election night — both to place bets and to peer into the results of the election. Bettors poured $476 million into the presidential race's outcome on Kalshi. Polymarket's site says more than $3.6 billion was spent betting on the race, though users in the US weren't legally allowed to participate."Nothing is as salient as the presidential election," Sottile says. "But there are things that get pretty salient in the national news." Already Kalshi is adding contracts on outcomes of the second Trump administration, like whether Musk or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be given a Cabinet position, whether tips will no longer be taxed, or whether Trump will be impeached for the third time. (Polymarket is taking wagers on whether Trump will end the war in Ukraine during his first 90 days in office, whether he'll declassify documents related to the assassination of John F. Kennedy, and whom he may pardon.) The sum of the bets being placed on these are a fraction of the election bonanza, but Sottile says there are enough of them, and enough interest, for Kalshi to seize the smaller moments.While the prediction markets are hailing themselves as oracles better equipped to predict the future than polls, Sottile says this isn't the end of polling, which helps inform the odds on Kalshi. But, Kalshi does "want to replace polling," he says, "in the sense that what are you checking every morning to figure out what's going on?"The argument for prediction markets' accuracy is that people are more decisive with their money, picking outcomes they think will happen, not just ones they want to happen. "When they actually put their money behind what they say, they're putting themselves out there," says Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University. He predicts that prediction markets will be around for 2028 — and they'll be bigger. They're also ways to distill the daily news cycle. Rather than reading several news stories about RFK Jr.'s chance of having a Cabinet position, people can turn to the markets. Instead of following each presidential poll, you can see information aggregated as odds on Polymarket. "The stuff I can learn from these markets is incredible," Strumpf says. The betting markets are "not a silver bullet," James Broughel, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, says. "They have their own imperfections, just like all of the other metrics do." While the markets nailed that outcome, they didn't forecast the popular vote as precisely: On Polymarket at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Trump had just a 28% chance of winning. Kalshi wagers on the popular vote didn't favor Trump until 11 p.m. The platforms have raised concerns about whether individuals with fat pockets can sway politics. The French trader who pumped more than $30 million into Polymarket is thought to have made <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">$85 million</a> when Trump won. But this wasn't an indication of support: The man, who is known only as Théo, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3">The Wall Street Journal</a> that he had "absolutely no political agenda" but believed Trump would win.Kalshi says that it ensures that all contracts on its site have "minimal risk of manipulation" and that it does not incentivize "harmful behavior." The platform bans trading on war, assassination, and illegal activity, and it bars people with insider information on the contract from participating. (For bets on politics, that can include campaign staffers and donors.) Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment for this story. In a note on an available contract about whether Iran will strike Israel — on which more than $1 million has been traded — Polymarket says, "After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not."Prediction markets are "going to attract people who want to influence public perception," Broughel says. Instead of spending money on TV ads or donating, supporters of certain political candidates may find ways to place wagers to use their influence. "I suspect as these markets grow more prominent, it's possible their usefulness will decline," Broughel added. Eighty-five percent of people who've placed bets on Kalshi are men, and more than 70% of people are under 40, according to the company. Those stats aren't surprising: Research suggests that men are more likely than women to gamble, buy stocks, and trade crypto. But Sottile argues that even if the platforms become more mainstream and diversified, prices and predictions will likely stay similar, as there are lots of people trading on the big election issues to balance out differing viewpoints.As we wait to see how Polymarket, Kalshi, and their competitors fare in 2028, there are wagers to place on questions like whether Trump will <a target="_blank" href="https://polymarket.com/event/trump-transgender-sports-ban?tid=1731342855843">bar transgender athletes</a> from participating in sports or whether <a target="_blank" href="https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnytsubs/nyt-subscribers">The New York Times</a> gains a certain number of subscribers. Don't bet on these prediction markets going away anytime soon.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/amanda-hoover">Amanda Hoover</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider covering the tech industry. She writes about the biggest tech companies and trends.

Polymarket predicted Trump's win. Now comes the hard part.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Argentina's markets celebrated the election victory of Javier Milei, who ran on a dollarization platform.</li><li>Bonds saw their highest intraday trade since January, while US-listed stocks surged.</li></ul>Argentina's dollar-based markets are swinging up, after libertarian candidate Javier Milei won the presidential runoff election on Sunday. The wider-than-expected victory of the pro-dollarization candidate led to the largest intraday gain for bonds since January, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-20/argentina-investors-cheer-milei-victory-brace-for-peso-selloff" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a> reported. Early Monday, Argentine dollar bonds due in 2041 rose 6.7%, hitting 30 cents on the dollar.The election's result also catapulted US-listed Argentine stocks up, with shares in oil producer YPF rocketing 36% in morning trade. Similarly, Grupo Financiero Galicia and Banco Macro, two regional lenders, rose 24% and 20%, respectively.Through the week, investors can also watch for swings in the peso exchange rate. Though a national holiday kept the domestic market closed on Monday, the peso had already shed 8% since Friday in the country's informal markets, which are more attuned to free market flows.And peso levels are likely to keep eroding, especially if Milei is successful in implementing his economic reforms. Through the election, the political outsider gained popularity on an idea to abandon the peso and adopt the US dollar, in an effort to rein in Argentina's runaway inflation. While full dollarization has been met with some criticism from <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/argentina-dollarization-peso-dollars-economist-presidential-javier-milei-recession-inflation-2023-9">economists</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/argentine-peso-hits-record-low-as-milei-says-it-cant-be-worth-excrement-while-businesses-oppose-dollarization/articleshow/104323544.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">business leaders</a> alike, Milei's surprisingly wide 56%-to-44% victory over opponent Sergio Massa may signal that Argentines are willing to take a chance on more radical approaches."The model of decadence has come to an end, there's no going back," Milei said in a speech that followed the election results. But despite the win, a slew of challenges remain, such as his scarce support in Argentina's Congress.

Argentina's bonds jump after pro-dollarization candidate Javier Milei wins presidency

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ned Davis Research predicts a stock market boost in 2025 regardless of who wins the November election.</li><li>Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have proposed economic plans that would stimulate growth, NDR said.</li></ul>Regardless of who wins the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/elections">Presidential election in November,</a> it's going to be a win for the stock market according to Ned Davis Research.The research firm said in a note on Wednesday that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">economic proposals</a> of both Democrat nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump, would both stimulate the economy."Based on the annual average of these limited assessments, both Harris and Trump will run up the budget deficit to the tune of $220 billion to $650 billion per year, which will stimulate economic growth," NDR's senior US economist Veneta Dimitrova said.That, combined with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-are-coming-federal-reserve-jackson-hole-powell-2024-8">expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve,</a> should result in a risk-on environment for the stock market in 2025.Some of the major stimulative proposals from the Harris camp include extending the 2017 TCJA tax cuts for households earning less than $400,000 per year, increasing the Child Tax Credit to $3,600 per child and $6,000 per newborn, and eliminating income taxes on tips.For Trump, the stimulative economic proposals include extending the 2017 TCJA tax cuts for all, increasing the Child Tax Credit to $5,000 per child, and eliminating income taxes on social security benefits for seniors.Trump is also advocating for an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-tax-free-tips-proposal-2024-6">elimination of income taxes on tips.</a>Below is a list of economic proposals from both candidates, and their estimated impact on the federal deficit.<div type="image" title="A table compared the different economic proposals of Trump and Harris" height="837" width="1183" msid="112876680" hostid="261" sizebytes="102100"></div>Potential stimulus measures from Trump or Harris will be in addition to the hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus that are set to hit the economy thanks to laws already enacted during the Biden administration."Such stimulus will combine with other government spending already in the pipeline from signature Biden laws, including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS Act, that are set to deliver an estimated $357 billion of direct government spending through 2031," Dimitrova said.She added: "Regardless of who wins the election, this implies a tailwind to economic growth and equity markets in 2025."A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/us-dollar-falls-fed-powell-rate-cut-signal-limited-impact-2024-8">falling US dollar is also in the cards next year</a> according to the note, especially if the US deficit grows even more, and a weaker greenback tends to be a tailwind for corporate profits and US stock prices.While the trillions of dollars of potential stimulus could be great for the economy and stock market, it could also spark another surge in inflation.That's especially true if Trump's across-the-board tariff proposals or Harris' price gouging measures are enacted, Dimitrova said.But it's worth noting that these are all proposals, and whether they become law hinges on which party wins Congress."Ultimately, the makeup of Congress, which may also change in this election, will determine the feasibility of these proposals and may act as a check on spending and tax changes," Dimitrova said.

Why the November election is a win for the stock market no matter who comes out on top

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In the unlikely event <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-if-biden-ends-his-reelection-bid-1968-dnc-2024-2">Joe Biden drops out, </a>his party's nomination will be thrown into chaos.</li><li>Biden and his allies have also implemented changes that stack things in his favor.</li></ul>Some Democrats have grown antsy over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-ruth-bader-ginsburg-comparison-age-health-step-down-2024-2">President Joe Biden’s status</a>. While even some members of Congress are voicing concerns about his age, there’s little that could be effectively done to stop the president.And if he were to suddenly drop out à la LBJ in 1968, his party would face immediate chaos. It’s a near certainty that such a scenario would require an open convention, an event that hasn’t been seen in recent memory.It is worth remembering that there are no constitutional provisions regarding presidential primaries and very few details about the election of the president itself. The current system is the result of self-interested leaders, shell-shocked parties, and the constant debate about who should really have the power to elect a presidential nominee. Here's a breakdown of how we went from smoke-filled rooms and chaotic conventions to our modern system.<h2>What were early presidential elections like?</h2>Neither the primary process, if it existed at all, nor the general election are anything like their current counterparts. Revolutionary War hero George Washington was the easy choice for the white male property owners who decided the nation’s early elections. Washington’s decision to not seek a third term upended the system. The nation’s framers hadn’t anticipated political parties, but John Adam and Thomas Jefferson’s fierce rivarly quickly divided the top officials. Members of Congress, due to their proximity to political power, began informally and then increasingly publicly nominating their preferred candidates. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/42622825?read-now=1&amp;seq=11#page_scan_tab_contents">Not everyone was happy with the system</a>, which multiple state legislatures rallied against in part due to constitutional concerns about the separation of power. The chaos of the election of 1824, the only presidential election to be thrown to the House, hastened the end of this approach.The Anti-Masonic Party, perhaps the U.S.’s first dominant third party, paved the way for a new method when it held the first national convention in 1831. (incredibly, they still chose a Mason as their nominee.) Soon after, as Jill Lepore <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/04/conventions-primaries-and-the-presidency">recounted</a> in The Atlantic, then-President Andrew Jackson’s desire to have his Democratic Party follow suit helped enshrine a new tradition into American politics.<h2>What were early conventions like?</h2>They were also nothing like modern conventions. Jackson supported the already ongoing expansion of voting rights to most white men, Daniel Feller, Editor/Director Emeritus of The Papers of Andrew Jackson, <a target="_blank" href="https://millercenter.org/president/jackson/the-american-franchise">wrote</a> in a summary of the former general's rise to power. Even that push didn’t change the real power that was selecting the nation’s presidential nominees. Detractors may have killed the congressional caucus, but the convention delegate system was another avenue for political elites to determine their respective party’s nominees. This era did give us one of the best cliches, <a target="_blank" href="https://politicaldictionary.com/words/smoke-filled-room/">the smoke-filled room</a>.Conventions didn't start to resemble what currently occurs every four years until much later. For example, it wasn't until FDR accepted the Democratic Party's nomination in 1932 that nominees began to show up for formal acceptance speeches, a major part of the modern convention.<h2>What are primaries and how did we get them in presidential elections?</h2>Progressive reformers were tired of political bosses. They sought to weaken elite officials' power through primary elections at all levels. In 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt won most of the GOP primaries, but few states actually held such elections. Unable to usurp William Howard Taft, his successor, Roosevelt started a third party of his own, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/memorable-presidential-elections-american-history-2020-10#theodore-roosevelt-started-a-third-party-in-the-1912-election-and-took-a-bullet-to-the-chest-at-one-campaign-stop-3">The Bull Moose Party</a>. Slowly, the primaries began to take hold, not as definitive nomination contests but as data points for party elites to assess the relative strength of candidates.Dwight D. Eisenhower notched a major upset in the 1952 New Hampshire GOP primary that upended Robert A. Taft's perceived frontrunner status. Eisenhower went on to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot. On the Democratic side, Then-Sen. John F. Kennedy’s win in the West Virginia primary helped to soothe fears that some top party officials held about how a Catholic presidential candidate would be received.Some defend this system and want to return to it, because it mixed a limited number of primaries with the power of party figures. As Richard Pildes, a constitutional law professor at New York University School of Law, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/25/two-myths-about-the-unruly-american-primary-system/">wrote in 2016</a>, this approach allowed party loyalists to maintain some control over the primary process. It was a year of sheer chaos that provided the final push to start modern presidential campaigning.<h2>Why is 1972 the start of the modern era?</h2>The 1968 Democratic National Convention was a disaster. President Lyndon B. Johnson shocked the country by announcing he would not seek reelection. Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy were gunned down just months apart. And an outcry over the Vietnam War loomed over everything. Democrats were already entering an uneasy situation for their national convention in Chicago. The party’s decision to nominate Vice President Hubert Humphrey, a pro-war candidate, who had run in any of the limited number of primaries, was vocally rejected by some delegates on the floor. News coverage of that drama was interrupted by a violent riot that unfolded outside. The legacy of Chicago held on for so long that questions were raised about whether Democrats should go back there for their convention this summer nearly 60 years later.In the wake of the violence, Democrats launched a massive overhaul of their presidential primary process. Then-Sen. George McGovern helped co-lead the commission aimed at opening up the delegate selection process in more democratic ways, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thisnation.com/politics/elections/how-did-political-party-conventions-start/">such as requiring</a> more female delegates, establishing a quota for younger delegates, and pushing away from the old tradition of making delegate selection in secret. McGovern, <a target="_blank" href="https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-oral-histories/george-mcgovern-oral-history">who later said</a> he was asked to help lead the panel due to his favorability among all wings of the party, later used the knowledge to help clinch the presidential nomination under the new rules.According to some officials who worked on the commission, their changes had the unintended effect of popularizing state presidential primary elections. The Republican Party soon followed with its review. The upshot was party elites were now less powerful than they had been in decades. While Democrats have continued to study and tweak how they run presidential elections ever since. <h2>How did the top officials respond?</h2>Like they had in the past, party officials quickly tried to claw back power. Critically for Democrats, this led to the creation of so-called super delegates<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/19/democratic-party-superdelegates-history-rules-changes"> in the early 1980s</a>.While the initial goal was to limit their number, by 2016 superdelegates made up 15% of the available delegates, a sizable chunk in what became a more closely contested primary than initially anticipated. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ supporters responded by calling for limits on superdelegates’ power.In 2018, superdelegates <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/25/politics/democrats-superdelegates-voting-changes/index.html">were officially barred</a> from voting on the first ballot if a candidate did not secure a majority of the delegates without the party officials’ support. In short, party officials’ hands are initially tied, even if they want to cast the deciding votes.<h2>What has Joe Biden done?</h2>Biden continued the tradition of tweaking the process. He went further than any recent proposal, angering Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats by pushing them further down in the party’s primary calendar. He also elevated <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-2024-democratic-presidential-primary-calendar-dnc-south-carolina-2023-7">South Carolina to first</a>. Officially, the Democratic National Committee had to approve the plan, but it was largely rubber-stamped. If Biden were to drop out tomorrow, any hopeful would have to face this reality. Some states, such as Florida and North Carolina, have either canceled their primary election or made it a de facto Biden victory by only listing one candidate on the ballot.

The chaotic history of how we elect presidential candidates

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)'s <keyword id="101521" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bhagwant-mann" source="Orion">Bhagwant Mann</keyword>, who on Thursday won the Dhuri seat with a margin of 58,206 votes, is set to become Punjab's next chief minister. AAP is heading to a landslide win in the 117-member legislative Assembly by leading at over 90 seats. In his first public address in his home town Sangrur after winning the seat and seeing the meteoric rise of the party, Mann promised to fix unemployment as his first task in office. "No government office in the state will have the photo of the Punjab CM, but will carry a portrait of B.R. Ambedkar." Mann said he will take oath as the Chief Minister in Bhagat Singh's ancestral village Khatkar Kalan and not in Raj Bhawan. "We will ensure that the youth do not have to go abroad... Within a month, you will observe changes," he added. Taking a dig at the opposition leaders, he said, "The elder Badal has lost...Captain (Amarinder Singh) Sahab has also lost. Majithia is also losing. Channi has also lost from both seats." The AAP is leading in 91 of 117 seats in the Punjab Assembly, as per the Election Commission of India (ECI) website at 1.10 p.m. The Congress was leading in 17 seats so far. For the AAP that was banking on 'Hun ek mauka Kejriwal nu (now one chance to Kejriwal)' -- arguably one of the biggest advertisement blitz campaigns -- two-time MP, Mann, took the lead as the chief minister's face. In the 2017 Assembly elections, the AAP had made inroads among Jat Sikhs by emerging as the second largest party with 20 seats, 18 of them in the Malwa region. However, it failed to make a mark in Majha and Doaba regions. Mann held his fort despite Modi wave across the country in 2019 by retaining the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat for the second time in a row. "The fight is not to save some political families but to save Punjab, the farmers, the agriculture, the industry and the youth. Owing to lack of employment and better education infrastructure, our youth is moving abroad," was the common talk of Mann in his folksy style in his elections campaigns. Formerly a popular comedian-actor, Mann, known for his trademark 'basanti' turban, a colour associated with Shaheed Bhagat Singh, has had his fair share of controversies in recent years, especially linked to his drinking habit. In these polls, AAP's vote share is estimated to be close to 42.45 per cent compared to 22.9 per cent of the Congress and 17.9 per cent of the SAD. The meteoric rise of AAP in the 2014 Parliamentary polls and then in the 2017 Assembly elections in Punjab followed by its nosedive owing to 'mass exodus' of its legislators proved a litmus test for the party in the 2022 Assembly polls in the state. Political observers say AAP was seen as the alternative to the traditional parties that had dominated Punjab's electoral space for decades. Learning a harsh lesson from its mistake during the 2017 Assembly polls of not declaring a chief ministerial candidate, this time AAP's CM face Bhagwant Mann was locked in a multi-cornered contest with Congress' 'Aam Aadmi' Charanjit Singh Channi, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) chief Sukhbir Badal, Capt Amarinder Singh, whose new party Punjab Lok Congress is in alliance with the BJP and the Samyukt Samaj Morcha, the fledgling coalition of farm unions. Channi, Sukhbir Badal and Captain Amarinder Singh faced humiliating defeat from their respective seats. In 2017, AAP sought vote in the name of Arvind Kejriwal, and despite him being tagged an outsider, it managed to win 20 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly, emerging as the principal opposition party, pushing SAD to the number three position. SEE ALSO <a class="tout-title-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/hul-future-retail-dr-reddys-bharti-airtel-among-stocks-to-watch-out-for-on-march-10/slidelist/90114443.cms">HUL, Future Retail, Dr Reddy’s, Bharti Airtel among stocks to watch out for on March 10</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/elections/news/early-trends-bjp-leads-in-up-uttarakhand-manipur-aap-in-punjab-cong-in-goa/articleshow/90116215.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Early Trends: BJP leads in UP, Uttarakhand &amp; Manipur; AAP in Punjab; Cong in Goa</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/india/news/uttarakhand-elections-2022-former-cm-harish-rawat-of-congress-leading-in-lal-kuan-seat/articleshow/90116045.cms">Uttarakhand elections 2022: Former CM Harish Rawat of Congress leading in Lal Kuan seat</a>

AAP's CM candidate Bhagwant Mann wins in Punjab election with whopping margin

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ron DeSantis dropped out of the 2024 race on Sunday.</li><li>At one time, it would have been considered an unexpected ending for a promising candidate.</li></ul>Turns out, Mickey Mouse is stronger than you thought.Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-suspends-gop-presidential-campaign-trump-haley-florida-2024-1">ended his presidential campaign</a> on Sunday, succumbing to the final realization of defeat in a candidacy that once held such promise.The epitaph of his campaign is and will be intensely debated. Perhaps, any politician trying to be a replica of Trump when the original was readily available was doomed to fail.And yet, it doesn't explain the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reaction-to-desantis-twitter-spaces-announcement-2024-gop-primary-2023-5">glitchy rollout</a>. The weird,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-responsible-widely-condemned-anti-lgbtq-video-2023-8"> definitely too online videos</a>. And how the governor of one of America's largest states, just seemed well, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/gabegutierrez/status/1684641404369203200?s=20">odd on the campaign trail</a>. It's true that as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/desantis-trump-indictments-distorted-gop-primary-struggles-woes-2023-12">DeSantis himself complained</a>, Trump's unprecedented criminal indictments upended the race. Still, it seemed like one man in America who could have humbled Trump just couldn't stop tripping over himself.<h2>DeSantis was one of the most intimidating candidates to enter the presidential arena in ages</h2>It's worth remembering as pundits, foes, and anyone else kick the Florida man while he's down that they remember DeSantis once cut a much different figure. After all, there's a reason the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-desantis-abortion-rights-disney-guns-education-2024-election-trump-2023-5">Biden White House</a> once<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jen-psaki-blasts-desantis-fundraising-spat-white-house-covid-2021-8"> made it a point</a> to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-jen-psaki-white-house-covid-monoclonal-antibodies-2022-1"> tangle with him regularly.</a>DeSantis cut his teeth after<a target="_blank" href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/ron-desantiss-electoral-track-record"> narrowly winning a general election</a> over then-Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, a candidate who was virtually anointed as the future of the Democratic Party but who now looks at best like a deeply flawed challenger. And yes, it was then-President Donald Trump whose endorsement powered DeSantis to that very general election in the first place.You know how the story goes. DeSantis pivoted away from his early governorship to becoming a pandemic-era culture warrior willing to take on Trump or anyone else who stands his way. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-desantis-feud-timeline-parental-rights-education-florida-2023-4">He later added Disney</a>, one of his state's largest employers, to his enemy list. After pundits point out this a bold strategy for a historic swing state, DeSantis pulls off a historic reelection rout. <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/nypost/status/1590329298942103552?s=20">Front pages </a>proclaimed him the man of the moment. Very early polling showed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/14/desantis-trump-2024-republican-presidential-poll">DeSantis leading Trump</a> in national polling. The Wall Street Journal had him <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/ron-desantis-holds-early-lead-over-donald-trump-among-gop-primary-voters-wsj-poll-shows-11670989311?mod=hp_lead_pos5">up by double digits over Trump</a> in a 2022 poll. Of course, it didn't last.<h2>His collapse is among the most significant ever in Republican politics.</h2>It might be our fault too, more specifically the media. To juice early interest in the presidential race, the national media often declares frontrunners that age more poorly than a mid-2000s sitcom: just ask Rudy Giuliani, Scott Walker, and Kamala Harris (briefly). Some, namely Joe Biden, campaign long enough to go from frontrunner to also-ran back to winning the race again. But for the rest, they drop out before the Iowa caucuses or live on long enough to be humbled by roughly a couple hundred thousand Americans.While DeSantis may often be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-scott-walker-chris-christie-2024-lessons-campaign-trump-2022-11">compared to former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker</a>, the Floridian's disappointing performance might be so bad that he has now risen close to the level occupied by Giuliani. As America's (former) Mayor, Giuliani dominated early polling in the 2008 Republican primaries. But <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jan/30/usa.rudygiuliani">Giuliani was ultimately doomed </a>by cultural issues (evangelical conservatives couldn't stomach his then-pro-choice views) and his curious decision to skip the early states in favor of focusing on the delegate battle. He ultimately staked his campaign on Florida. After finishing third, he quickly dropped out.Walker's failed candidacy is similar in that the Wisconsin Republican expanded his operation quickly to match the early hype for his bid. Just like DeSantis, Walker ended up being doomed by the sheer rate at which his campaign burned through contributions.Maybe there's a different ending in another multiverse. But in this reality, a week ago DeSantis lashed out at "worthless" Republicans who back Trump."You can be the most worthless Republican in America, but if you kiss the ring, he'll say: 'You're wonderful,"<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1746713824470679631?s=20"> DeSantis told Iowans</a> just a day before he finished the caucuses <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/desantis-iowa-caucuses-counties-trump-haley-conservatives-2024-1">without carrying a single county.</a>DeSantis can only hope he'll return to a wonderful world as Florida's governor. It sure won't be Disney's.

DeSantis might be the worst presidential candidate in recent memory 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tom Cotton has emerged as a potential running mate for former President Donald Trump.</li><li>Cotton, first elected to the Senate in 2014, is known for his staunchly conservative views.</li></ul>High-profile GOP figures like Senators <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-donald-trump-jr-close-friendship-gop-america-first-2024-4">JD Vance of Ohio</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tim-scott-trump-running-mate-2024-republican-party-2022-2">Tim Scott of South Carolina</a> have long been bandied about as potential running mates for former President Donald Trump.But one of their Senate colleagues has also emerged as a potential pick: Tom Cotton of Arkansas.According to The New York Times, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/us/politics/tom-cotton-trump-vp.html">Trump sees Cotton</a> as adept at cable news appearances, an important conduit for reaching GOP audiences. The former president also admires Cotton's military service and overseas deployments and speaks highly of the senator's Harvard-educated background.In addition to Cotton, Vance, and Scott, Trump is also strongly considering Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida as potential running mates, according to the Times. The former president has also mentioned the five politicians as possible cabinet choices should he choose another candidate as his No. 2.Individuals close to Trump who spoke with the Times said the ex-president isn't wedded to any particular figures and could consider other Republicans as the final decision looms.Of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-vice-president-running-mate-power-rankings-2024-5">candidates on Trump's radar</a>, all have been reliable foot soldiers of the former president's conservative views. And Trump — embroiled in myriad legal issues — is looking to tap a well-regarded candidate who won't create any major controversies for his campaign, the Times reported.Burgum briefly ran for president against Trump last year but suspended his campaign in December and threw his support behind the ex-president shortly before the Iowa caucuses. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-little-marco-rubio-2016-2">Rubio famously jostled with Trump</a> during the 2016 Republican primaries but has since overwhelmingly supported the former president.Cotton and Scott were strong legislative allies of Trump during his first administration, and Vance has emerged as one of the former president's leading "America First" adherents in the Senate.When Cotton — who was first elected to the Senate in 2014 — was asked last week about being part of a potential second Trump administration, he said he's mostly spoken with the former president about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-vp-shortlist-allegedly-has-top-contender-report">strategies for winning in November</a>."I suspect only Donald Trump knows who is really on his short list," Cotton told Fox News. "When we do talk, we talk about what it's going to take to win this election … to elect President Trump to another term in the White House and elect a Republican Congress."While Cotton's selection would be a huge hit with conservatives, it is unclear if he would be able to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-haley-suburbs-gop-problem-north-carolina-virginia-2024-3">help Trump with suburban voters</a> — a weak demographic for the former president — especially given the senator's strong anti-abortion views.

Next up on Trump's evolving list of potential vice-presidential nominees: Tom Cotton

<table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Punjab winner candidate list </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;"> </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#b7b7b7;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Constituency </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#b7b7b7;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Winner Candidate Name </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#b7b7b7;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Winning Party Name </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#b7b7b7;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Winning Margin </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Amritsar </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Gurjeet Singh Ajula </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">INC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">99626 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Anandpur Sahib </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Manish Tewari </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">INC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">46884 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Bathinda </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Harsimrat Kaur Badal </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">SAD </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">21772 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Faridkot </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Mohammad Sadique </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">INC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">83256 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Fatehgarh Sahib </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">AMAR SINGH </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">INC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">93898 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Firozpur </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">SUKHBIR SINGH BADAL </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">SAD </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">198850 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Gurdaspur </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">SUNNY DEOL </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">BJP </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">82459 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Hoshiarpur </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">SOM PARKASH </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">BJP </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">48530 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Jalandhar </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Santokh Singh Chaudhary </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">INC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">19491 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Khadoor Sahib </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">JASBIR SINGH GILL (DIMPA) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">INC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">140573 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Ludhiana </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">RAVNEET SINGH BITTU </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">INC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">76372 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Patiala </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Preneet Kaur </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">INC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">162718 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">Sangrur </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">BHAGWANT MANN </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">AAP </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.75pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.75pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:0pt 2pt 0pt 2pt;">110211 </td></tr></tbody></table> The Indian National Congress (INC) has won 8 out of the 13 seats. BJP has managed to won 2 seats namely Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur. Actor turned politician Sunny Deol, who had joined BJP earlier this month, has won the Gurdaspur seat with a margin of more than 80,000 votes. AAP's Bhagwat Mann has managed to win the only seat for Aam Aadmi Party in the 17th Lok Sabha Elections.Shiromani Akali Dal has also won two seats i.e. Bathinda and Firozpur.

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