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New Delhi: As the earnings season for the second quarter of FY25 unfolds, <keyword id="19959986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-sector-banks" source="keywords">public sector banks</keyword> (PSBs) are expected to see a slight dip in profits compared to the previous quarter, according to a report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword>. The report estimates that PSBs' Profit After Tax (PAT) will decline by 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), while showing a stronger year-on-year (YoY) growth of 17.2 per cent. "We estimate PSBs to report moderate <keyword id="19899597" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earnings-growth" source="keywords">earnings growth</keyword> of 17.2 pc YoY/ a decline of 0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report stated. The slower pace of growth can be attributed to flat net interest margins (NIMs) and a slight increase in loan loss provisions (LLP). The <keyword id="20171160" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Net-Interest-Income" source="keywords">Net Interest Income</keyword> (NII) for PSBs is expected to grow by around 6 per cent YoY, although interest margins are likely to remain under pressure. Despite these near-term challenges, the report suggests that public sector banks are on track to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 per cent between FY24 and FY26, pointing to sustained long-term growth. In the private sector banking space, the report forecasts mixed results for the same quarter. For private banks under the coverage, Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is expected to grow by 12 per cent YoY and 1 per cent QoQ. However, PAT growth is predicted to be more modest, increasing by 5 per cent YoY and 0.6 per cent QoQ. "For our private bank coverage universe, we estimate a PPoP growth of 12 pc YoY/1 pc QoQ and a PAT growth of 5 pc YoY/0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report added. Looking ahead, private sector banks are expected to experience steady profitability growth, with earnings projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4 per cent over FY24-FY26. Overall, while both public and private sector banks may face moderate growth in the second quarter due to margin pressures and higher provisions, their long-term earnings prospects remain positive. (ANI)

Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

Amid questions on the depleting <keyword id="20776807" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="loan-to-deposit-ratio" source="keywords">loan-to-deposit ratio</keyword> in <keyword id="19895091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banks" source="keywords">Indian banks</keyword>, a recent report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword> suggests that the loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio is likely to subside on its own in the coming months. The debate on loan-to-deposit ratio (LD), particularly concerning sluggish <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> and potential risks to <keyword id="20089808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stability" source="keywords">financial stability</keyword> is raised by even the finance minister and the <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor" source="keywords">RBI governor</keyword>. However, the report notes that on closer examination, the situation may not be as alarming as it seems. As of 9th August, 2024 the Indian <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>'s loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio stood at 77.2 %, which is slightly below its recent peak of 78.2 % on 22nd March 2024, and its all-time high of 78.8 % in September 2013. The report stated that typically a rising LD ratio is indicative of a tightness in the banking sector, potentially indicating overheating. A lower LD indicates that the bank is aggressive in its credit disbursement practises, which could be risky. It highlighted that an analysis of the sector's transactions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), along with recent trends in the weighted average call rate (WACR), suggests that the current rise in the LD ratio does not indicate tightness, which is why there is no immediate cause of concern. In fact, the report added that the concern over weak deposit growth may be overstated. Historical data show that bank deposits grew at an average rate of 9.5 % during the pre-COVID period (January 2015 to February 2020) and 10.4 % in the post-COVID period (March 2020 to August 2024). Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also urged state-run banks to enhance deposit mobilization through attractive offers and focusing on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Loan-to-deposit ratio pegs the total deposits received by the bank against the loans it has offered. It helps in understanding how liquid the bank is. The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is a financial metric that compares a bank's total loans to its total deposits. It's used to assess a bank's liquidity and credit risk, and to inform lending and deposit-taking decisions The report said while the exact measures are unclear, the deposit growth could potentially be increased by making other asset classes less attractive through taxation or interest rates, or by boosting fiscal spending to increase net credit to the government. In its forecast, the report noted that private banks will witness a moderation in their <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword>, while public sector banks will maintain a healthy credit growth rate. "Our analysis suggests that deposit growth could be raised by either making other asset classes unattractive (through taxation and/or interest rate) or increasing the growth in net credit to the government by pushing fiscal spending higher" the report added. Alternatively, policymakers might consider curtailing loan growth to lower the LD ratio. However, this could slow deposit growth, particularly if corporate credit growth remains weak. Encouraging savers to shift investments from other assets to bank deposits could also be an option, but this carries risks of overreach and potential damage to economic confidence. Das had also flagged the excessive growth, or froth developing in the personal loan space. Notably, while credit growth in unsecured personal loans like credit cards continues to decline, it remains elevated at 23.3% as of June 2024. However, this is a significant reduction from 34.2% witnessed in November 2023. As fiscal spending increases, bank credit to the government is likely to grow, which should elevate deposits and broad money supply. The report said "However, the extent of foreign capital inflows and the RBI's policy for managing these inflows remain uncertain". Last month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had also addressed this issue in the 50th meeting of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee). Per him, deposit mobilisation has been lagging credit growth for some time now. This may potentially expose the system to structural liquidity issues. "While there could be a debate regarding ‘deposits funding loans’ vis-à-vis ‘loans funding deposits’, the current regulatory concern stems from the fact that there could be structural changes happening which banks need to recognise and, accordingly, devise their strategies. Households and consumers who traditionally leaned on banks for parking or investing their savings are increasingly turning to capital markets and other financial intermediaries", Das said. Per him, while bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of financial assets owned by households, their share has been declining consistently, since households are now increasingly allocating their savings to mutual funds, insurance funds, pension funds and other avenues.

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia will resume public sector layoffs, affecting up to at least 40,000 workers, per Kommersant.</li><li>Layoffs were paused due to COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</li></ul>Russia is expected to lay off at least 40,000 government officials next year, according to a report by the Russian <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7296193?tg">Kommersant</a> newspaper.Russian President Vladimir Putin last month<a target="_blank" class="" href="http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/0001202410290050?index=1"> ordered regional branches of federal government agencies to cut staff by 10%</a> by July, per the publication.The layoffs were believed to be planned for much earlier but were put on hold for several years due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.According to Kommersant, the cuts are designed to make the civil service more efficient and raise the salaries of existing staff.Russia's official wage statistics, published in January, showed wages in the private sector rose by 8% to 20% last year.The cuts would also allow more people to enter Russia's labor market which is experiencing a widespread shortage of workers amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.According to an estimate from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics, Russia was short a record 5 million workers at the end of 2023.Workers have been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-raises-mobilization-age-some-reservists-can-be-called-70-2023-7">pulled into the </a>Ukraine war or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/number-of-russians-fleeing-draft-bigger-1st-invasion-force-uk-2022-9">forced to flee</a> after Putin enacted a major mobilization to increase wartime recruitment.Russia has turned to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-making-labor-crisis-worse-sending-workers-to-war-ukraine-2023-11">migrant</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-worker-shortage-prison-labor-ukraine-war-putin-kremlin-2023-10">prison labor</a> to supplement its workforce, but those aren't sustainable solutions to its population problem, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">report</a> by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University.Last year, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned that continued <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-depleted-workforce-threatening-economic-growth-says-central-bank-2023-11-09/">workforce depletion</a> would threaten Russian economic growth.However, so far, Russia's economy has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">held up</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2"> partly because of its war spending</a>, which has boosted growth despite soaring <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">inflation</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-raises-key-interest-rate-to-21-2024-10">high interest rates</a>.Inflation<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/"> hit 9.8%</a> in September, and potatoes, which are a staple of Russian diets, saw a<a target="_blank" href="https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/172_08-11-2024.html"> 64% increase in price</a> this year.Russia is expected to spend <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-defense-sector-on-overdrive-but-firms-warn-of-collapse-2024-11">$140 billion on its defense industry in 2024</a> and up to $145 billion in 2025, or 6.3% of its GDP.

Under strain from war, Russia plans a massive layoff in its public sector: report

The country's <keyword id="20344433" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="forex-reserves" source="keywords">forex reserves</keyword> touched a <keyword id="19953076" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-high" source="keywords">record high</keyword> of <keyword id="22711333" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="USD-675-billion" source="keywords">USD 675 billion</keyword> on August 2, <keyword id="22204269" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-Governor" source="keywords">Reserve Bank Governor</keyword> <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said on Thursday. The previous all-time high for the kitty was USD 670.857 billion on July 19 this year, and the last reported reserve was USD 667.386 billion as on July 26. Das said overall, the country's <keyword id="20811151" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="external-sector" source="keywords">external sector</keyword> "remains resilient" as indicated by an improvement in key indicators. "We remain confident of meeting our <keyword id="22711421" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="external-financing-requirements" source="keywords">external financing requirements</keyword> comfortably," he said in his statement after the review of the <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword>. Das said <keyword id="20015748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-investors" source="keywords">foreign portfolio investors</keyword> turned net buyers in the domestic market from June 2024 with net inflows of USD 9.7 billion during June- to August 6, after witnessing outflows of USD 4.2 billion in April and May. Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) rose by more than 20 per cent in April-May 2024, while net FDI flows doubled during this period compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, the Governor said. External commercial borrowings by Indian entities moderated, but non-resident deposits were higher in April-May, he said.

India's forex reserves at record high of USD 675 billion, external sector resilient: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

New Delhi: The Indian garment and knitted fabric sector is witnessing a bit of uncertainty due to the <keyword id="22498521" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bangladesh-crisis" source="keywords">Bangladesh crisis</keyword>, Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> said on Saturday, expressing hope that the interim government there will settle things "sooner rather than later." Interacting with the media on the sidelines of customary post Budget address to the central board of <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>, she said efforts are being taken to ensure that borders with the neighbouring country are safe. With regard to Indian investments, she said, the textile industry particularly from Tamil Nadu has made investments there in good faith and they have done well having gone there. "The exports from <keyword id="19919639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bangladesh" source="keywords">Bangladesh</keyword> also increased because of the duty and quota liberal approach that we have towards low-income countries. They (Indian garment industry based in Bangladesh) could even export to India." Particularly, she said, the garment and knitted fabric sector is seeing a bit of uncertainty because of the crisis in the neighbouring country. "I hope that the investments are all safe... it's too early for me to see what kind of an impact this situation in Bangladesh will have on our economy. I hope that the interim government will settle things sooner rather than later so that both the people of Bangladesh and India can get back to normalcy," she said. Earlier this week, Bangladesh plunged into a political crisis when Sheikh Hasina resigned as the Prime Minister and fled the country. Soon after Parliament was dissolved leading to the creation of an interim government. The 84-year-old Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus on Thursday took oath as the head of an interim government, replacing Sheikh Hasina who abruptly resigned and fled to India leaving the country in turmoil following deadly protests against her government over a controversial quota system in jobs. On Friday, Bangladesh's interim leader Yunus announced the portfolios of his 16-member council of advisors and named a former top diplomat to head the foreign ministry. The Nobel laureate's first task is to bring stability to Bangladesh after he responded to a call by student protesters for him to temporarily lead the country following weeks of deadly anti-government demonstrations against the government led by Sheikh Hasina.

Garment sector facing uncertainty due to Bangladesh crisis, normalcy may return soon: FM Nirmala Sitharaman

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) on Monday said 97.96 % of the <keyword id="6429211" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rs-2" source="Orion">Rs 2</keyword>,000 denomination <keyword id="20481528" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banknotes" source="keywords">banknotes</keyword> have returned to the banking system, and only Rs 7,261 crore worth of the withdrawn notes are still with the public. On May 19, 2023, the RBI announced the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 denomination banknotes from circulation. The total value of Rs 2,000 banknotes in circulation, which was Rs 3.56 lakh crore at the close of business on May 19, 2023, when the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 banknotes was announced, has declined to Rs 7,261 crore at the close of business on August 30, 2024, the RBI said. "Thus, 97.96 % of the Rs 2,000 banknotes in circulation as on May 19, 2023, has since been returned," it said in a statement. The facility for deposit and/or exchange of the Rs 2,000 banknotes was available at all bank branches in the country till October 7, 2023. The facility for the exchange of the Rs 2,000 banknotes has been available at the 19 issue offices of the <keyword id="19922074" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank" source="keywords">Reserve Bank</keyword> since May 19, 2023. From October 9, 2023, RBI issue offices are also accepting Rs 2000 banknotes from individuals and entities for deposit into their bank accounts. Further, members of the public are sending Rs 2,000 banknotes through India Post from any post office within the country to any of the RBI issue offices for credit to their bank accounts. The 19 RBI offices depositing/exchanging the banknotes are in Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Belapur, Bhopal, Bhubaneswar, Chandigarh, Chennai, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Jammu, Kanpur, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, Nagpur, New Delhi, Patna and Thiruvananthapuram. Rs 2000 banknotes were introduced in November 2016, following the demonetisation of the then-prevailing Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 banknotes. However, even after their discontinuation, Rs 2,000 notes continue to remain legal tender. Per the apex bank's last update, which came out on August 1st, 2024, Rs 2,000 banknotes had declined to Rs 7409 crore at the close of business on July 31, 2024. Thus, by last month, 97.92% of the Rs 2,000 banknotes which were in circulation as on May 19, 2023, had been returned.

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Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

ANI

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

Ira Alok Puranik

Under strain from war, Russia plans a massive layoff in its public sector: report

Hannah Abraham

India's forex reserves at record high of USD 675 billion, external sector resilient: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

PTI

Garment sector facing uncertainty due to Bangladesh crisis, normalcy may return soon: FM Nirmala Sitharaman

PTI

Rs 2,000 notes: 97.96% returned; Rs 7,261 crore worth notes still with public

PTI

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