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Petrol prices have been cut by Rs 1.77 per litre and diesel by 88 paise a litre ever since the daily revision in rates was implemented just over a week back, according to PTI news report. State-owned oil companies this month dumped the 15-year old practice of revising rates on 1st and 16th of every month and instead adopted a dynamic daily price revision to instantaneously reflect changes in cost. Prices of petrol and diesel have been revised at 0600 hrs everyday since June 16 and the biggest beneficiary has been the consumer. Petrol price was at Rs 65.48 a litre on June 16 in Delhi and today it costs Rs 63.71 per litre, according to information available from oil companies. Similarly, a litre of diesel was priced at Rs 54.49 on June 16 but has since dropped to Rs 53.61, thanks to the softening international oil prices. "Previously, the benefit of any decline in international oil prices would have been passed on to consumers only after a fortnight, but now it is instantaneously reflected in the billing," explained a senior oil company executive. The previous practice of revision in rate on 1st and 16th of every month, which began with de-regulation of auto fuel on April 1, 2002, was based on average international oil price and foreign exchange rate in the preceding fortnight. "Many a times, international rates would fall for one week and then rise in the following. So, the net effect of this in the previous price revision policy was status quo or a marginal change in rate. But now, any decline is passed on immediately and the consumer gets the benefit," he said. On the other hand, when oil prices rise, this would also hold true. According to oil company data, petrol price has been cut almost every day with reduction ranging from 11 paise to 32 paise per litre. Diesel prices have been cut between 2 paise and 18 paise a litre. Rates have declined on every single day since the daily price revision was introduced. Petrol and diesel prices were de-regulated, or freed from government control from April 1, 2002 and the fortnightly revision in rates kicked in. The deregulation derailed a bit when international oil prices started to climb after 2004. Fortnightly revision continued but the revision was not completely in snyc with the required price increase. Petrol price was finally freed in June 2010 and diesel in October 2014. The daily price revision was implemented after a successful pilot in five cities. Daily price change will remove the big leaps in rates that need to be effected at the end of the fortnight and the consumer will be more aligned to market dynamics. The three state-owned fuel retailers had implemented daily revision of retail selling price (RSP) of petrol and diesel on a pilot basis in <keyword id="42774" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Udaipur">Udaipur</keyword> in Rajasthan, Jamshedpur in <keyword id="6360371" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jharkhand">Jharkhand</keyword>, Puducherry, Chandigarh, and Vizag in <keyword id="37102" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Andhra-Pradesh">Andhra Pradesh</keyword> from May 1.

The daily price change of petrol is benefitting the customers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Rising prices for diesel fuel will add to inflation and worsen Europe's energy crisis, the IEA says. </li><li>Competition will also heat up once the EU bans Russian refined fuel product like diesel in February. </li></ul>Diesel fuel will become the new focus of Europe's energy crisis, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. That's due in part to a European Union embargo on Russian refined fuels will take hold in February, the IEA said, and is poised to add to inflation. By October, EU countries had cut Russia diesel imports by 50,000 barrels per day, and when the embargo hits in February, they will have to replace an additional 1 million bpd of diesel, naphtha and fuel oil, according to the IEA."The competition for non-Russian diesel barrels will be fierce, with EU countries having to bid cargoes from the US, Middle East and India away from their traditional buyers," it said. Diesel prices were already on the rise before Russia invaded Ukraine due to the closure of a key European refinery that erased 3.5 million barrels per day from the market. Now, prices were 70% higher in October compared to the same period in 2021, the IEA added, while the differential compared to the price of crude oil skyrocketed 425%. Remedying the situation requires a steep increase in refinery output, but "until then, if prices go too high, further demand destruction may be inevitable for the market imbalances to clear," the IEA added. The EU ban on imports of Russian diesel and other fuels that takes effect in February will follow an embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude that kicks in December 5, when G7 nations also plan to move forward with a price cap.

The diesel-fuel crunch may be the next focal point of Europe's energy crisis as competition stiffens, IEA says

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">Oil</keyword> prices turned higher after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected increase of oil output. </li><li>The increase is not enough to offset Russia's missing barrels, according to the CEO of Hess. </li></ul>Oil prices on Thursday reversed course and moved higher as a production increase by OPEC+ countries was viewed as potentially too little to offset the absence of Russian supply, while US <keyword id="12688402" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="crude" source="Orion">crude</keyword> inventories declined sharply. On Thursday, OPEC+ agreed to boost oil output for July and August by a larger-than-expected amount amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and oil prices surged on the news. The CEO of <keyword id="14100234" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="shale" source="Orion">shale</keyword> giant Hess, however, said the <a href="https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1532364422710185990?s=20&amp;t=uq3ptnhV8Qx3xTLEBnfqVw">increased OPEC+ output isn't enough</a> to offset the declining number of Russian barrels in the global market. West Texas Intermediate moved 1.249% higher Thursday to $116.70, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped about 1% to $117.47. The international oil alliance will increase production by 648,000 barrels per day for the two summer months, inching closer to plugging the gap left by the roughly 10 million barrels per day it pulled from the market in April 2020 as the pandemic began.Global energy <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> have reeled since Russia launched its war on Ukraine. The OPEC decision follows the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-cargoes-shipping-insurance-ban-eu-uk-lloyds-sanctions-2022-6?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">European Union's partial Russian oil embargo</a> that passed this week, and the US sanctions against Russia from March. Thursday's news also opens the door for <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/saudi-arabia-boost-oil-production-sanctions-war-ukraine-us-russia-2022-6">Saudi Arabia to ramp up its own output</a> if wartime sanctions force Russia to pump less crude. OPEC+ and non-members like Russia agreed previously to lift production, but some countries have floated the idea of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-opec-exclusion-production-quota-agreement-oil-price-supply-experts-2022-6?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">excluding Moscow from its quota</a> after it missed its target. In the US, domestic shortages have spurred record prices at the pump, as well as surges in the price of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/diesel-prices-soar-supply-crisis-gas-station-rationing-inflation-2022-5?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">diesel</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/natural-gas-prices-tripled-diesel-oil-2021-almost-no-ceiling-2022-5?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">natural gas</a>, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/jet-fuel-prices-doubled-travel-airplane-expensive-gas-ukraine-inflation-2022-5?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">jet fuel</a>. President Biden has not yet worked with Saudi Arabia's Mohammed Bin Salam, and the crown prince has spurned calls from the White House. But with energy prices surging, pressure is mounting for Biden to visit Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg reports.

Oil prices reverse higher as US inventories dive while energy giant says OPEC+ output boost isn't enough

<ul class="summary-list"><li>If sanctions force Russia to cut <keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">oil</keyword> production, <keyword id="11894587" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="saudi-arabia" source="Orion">Saudi Arabia</keyword> could boost its own output, sources told the Financial Times. </li><li>But oil prices reversed higher after OPEC+ agreed to increase production quotas more than expected. </li></ul>OPEC+ and its allies agreed Thursday to increase oil production more than expected, opening the door for Saudi Arabia to ramp up its own output if wartime sanctions force Russia to pump less. The oil group will boost output by 648,000 barrels a day in July and August, up from its prior monthly increases of about 400,000 bpd. But <keyword id="12688402" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="crude" source="Orion">crude</keyword> prices reversed earlier losses to turn higher.The OPEC+ decision comes after sources told the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cf18ce69-e46a-4802-9058-1340c5a2c94d">Financial Times</a> that Saudi Arabia is prepared to pump more. Concern over a more dire supply squeeze for crude oil has emerged since the European Union announced its partial <keyword id="13337215" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russian-oil" source="Orion">Russian oil</keyword> embargo on Tuesday, as well as a ban on <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-cargoes-shipping-insurance-ban-eu-uk-lloyds-sanctions-2022-6?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">insurance for Russian cargoes</a> that could limit Moscow's exports to <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> outside the EU. Saudi Arabia is aware of the present risks in oil markets, "and that it is not in their interests to lose control of oil prices," a person familiar with the matter told the FT. Thursday's OPEC+ oil production increase also presents the opportunity for a potential deal with the US. The Saudis previously resisted calls to boost production as it did not yet see a genuine shortage in the market and wanted to maintain spare capacity to respond to a real crisis, according to the FT. However, the landscape could shift quickly and dramatically, given that China is starting to emerge from COVID-19 lockdowns and Russian output is struggling to rebound. OPEC and non-members like Russia previously agreed to gradually lift production, but <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-opec-exclusion-production-quota-agreement-oil-price-supply-experts-2022-6">some countries in the oil group have discussed excluding Moscow from its quota</a> after it missed its target.Meanwhile, amid soaring <keyword id="11994710" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gas-prices" source="Orion">gas prices</keyword> in the US, President Joe <keyword id="60973" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="biden" source="Orion">Biden</keyword> could be gearing up to visit Saudi Arabia soon, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-02/biden-likely-to-visit-saudi-arabia-as-us-gasoline-prices-spiral">Bloomberg</a> reported Wednesday.So far, <keyword id="14099043" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="crown-prince" source="Orion">Crown Prince</keyword> Mohammed Bin Salam — the effective ruler of Saudi Arabia — has spurned Biden's calls, as the White House has said early on it would deal directly with Saudi Arabia's official head of state, King Salam bin Abdulaziz. But with <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gas-prices-record-high-us-demand-destruction-crude-oil-prices-2022-5">gas prices hitting record after record</a> over recent weeks, pressure is mounting for Biden to meet with Bin Salam, Bloomberg reports. The US is staring down dwindling energy stockpiles, which have pushed up prices for <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/diesel-prices-soar-supply-crisis-gas-station-rationing-inflation-2022-5">diesel</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/natural-gas-prices-tripled-diesel-oil-2021-almost-no-ceiling-2022-5">natural gas</a>, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/jet-fuel-prices-doubled-travel-airplane-expensive-gas-ukraine-inflation-2022-5">jet fuel</a>.

OPEC+ backs bigger output increase, clearing Saudi Arabia to ramp up oil production to offset Russian shortfalls

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The pandemic stifled global refining capacity and sent <keyword id="12233232" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="fuel" source="Orion">fuel</keyword> stockpiles lower.</li><li>A busy hurricane season in the US Gulf Coast could push fuel prices soaring even higher, analysts told Insider. </li></ul>Reduced fuel-making capacities around the world are putting more pressure on global supplies, and refineries are still recovering from the repercussions of the pandemic just as this year's hurricane season gets under way. According to the EIA, 47% of total US petroleum refining capacity is located along the Gulf Coast, and if the area is struck by extreme weather, disaster could follow. The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be busier than usual, and JPMorgan analysts said if severe weather forces a significant chunk of refining capacity to go offline in Texas and Louisiana, like previous years, the US could run out of certain fuels. "If we have a hurricane hit the gulf coast this year and impact refining capacity, there is a high chance we will experience shortages and this will cause continued rise in prices," Debnil Chowdhury, vice president, head of Americas refining at S&amp;P Global, told Insider. War in Ukraine and sanctions on Moscow have exacerbated the <keyword id="11917806" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy" source="Orion">energy</keyword> crunch, and crude <keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">oil</keyword> prices hit a<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-today-brent-wti-eu-ban-embargo-russian-imports-2022-5"> two-month high of $123</a> this week following the European Union's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/european-union-leaders-russian-oil-2022-5">partial ban</a> of Russian supplies. Consumer demand for gas and diesel is returning to pre-pandemic levels ahead of the <keyword id="11949091" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="summer" source="Orion">summer</keyword> travel season, and fuel-making refineries are facing dwindling stockpiles even as they run near maximum capacity. Currently, upwards of 90% of refineries are being utilized, the EIA reported, which is near the highest levels in the last five years. Western sanctions on Russia have meant 800,000 barrels a day are gone from the global market, and that could increase to 1.4 million this summer, JPMorgan said. These factors have <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gas-prices-record-high-us-demand-destruction-crude-oil-prices-2022-5">pushed gas prices to fresh highs</a> — the US average hit a record $4.761 per gallon on Friday — and have also resulted in steep prices for <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/diesel-supply-crisis-record-price-white-house-gas-emergency-reserves-2022-5">diesel</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/jet-fuel-prices-doubled-travel-airplane-expensive-gas-ukraine-inflation-2022-5">jet fuel</a>, and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/natural-gas-prices-tripled-diesel-oil-2021-almost-no-ceiling-2022-5">natural gas</a>. In May, US diesel stockpiles hit their lowest levels in 17 years, JPMorgan said, and US inventories of gasoline are roughly 8% lower than normal for this time of year. If a hurricane shuts down a refinery in the Gulf Coast, it would likely take two to four years to bring it back online and could cost billions of dollars, Chowdhury said."The trader in me sees a pretty grim outlook on supply, which means prices are going higher," Jim Mitchell, head of Americas oil analysts at Refinitiv, told Insider. "Going into hurricane season, nobody is going to be short [on fuels]."During the pandemic, around three million barrels a day of global refining capacity closed, and a third of that happened in the US, according to JPMorgan. Moving forward, another 1.69 million barrels of US refining capacity is expected to disappear, analysts told the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bottleneck-fuels-record-high-gas-prices-11653750180">Wall Street Journal</a>."When inventories are high, products can get anywhere for a relatively small cost," Mitchell said. "Inventories are that buffer of security of supply. When this buffer drops, that's when the probability of price rationing goes up."According to the two analysts, the impact a busy hurricane season could have on fuel prices could be dramatic. If <keyword id="12012432" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="hurricanes" source="Orion">hurricanes</keyword> were to shut down refining capacity for an extended period of time, it would draw down the total inventory in the Gulf Coast and reduce the region's ability to send products to the Northeast and Latin America. This could cause localized spikes for prices at the pump.Additionally, extreme weather could exacerbate shortages if it impacts pipeline capacity or shuts down Gulf Coast ports. "This would actually cause inventory to build [in the Gulf Coast], but would cause global panic and pricing to rise globally," Chowdhury said. Should all these factors happen, he said, crude and product prices could jump 10%-20%, and prices could be especially expensive in the Northeast."If a hurricane hits a significant refining area, we'll see another wave of supply shortages."

Gas prices are vulnerable to a disastrous spike this summer as a busy hurricane season could intensify a US energy crunch

<ul class="summary-list"><li>While Americans are reeling from sticker shock at the <keyword id="11955852" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gas" source="Orion">gas</keyword> pump, the <keyword id="11894589" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="diesel" source="Orion">diesel</keyword> market is in its worst crisis since the 1970s, analysts say.</li><li>Prices for diesel, which powers much of the country's industry, have surged 76.5% in the last year. </li></ul>While Americans are reeling from sticker shock at the gas pump, the diesel market is in its worst crisis since the 1970s, analysts say.The commodity fuels much of the economy, including big-rig trucks, farm equipment and industrial machinery. Prices hit a record $5.56 per gallon in the US, up 76.5% from a year ago."The <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> are telling us there's a shortage," Jim Mitchell, <a href="https://www.refinitiv.com/en">Refinitiv's</a> head of Americas oil analysts, told Insider. "This is a tailwind for inflation. We're demanding more diesel than anyone can supply."In fact, supplies have been dwindling. Nationwide, inventories for the most commonly used diesel have dropped <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=WD0ST_NUS_1&amp;f=W">43%</a> since 2020 to the lowest since 2014. In the Central Atlantic region, inventories have crashed 78% from 2020 to the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=WD0ST_R1Y_1&amp;f=W">lowest in a decade</a>. Other categories of diesel are seeing steeper drops.And in New York, the situation is so dire that refinery and fuel magnate <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/nyc-billionaire-catsimatidis-warns-of-rationed-east-coast-diesel">John Catsimatidis told Bloomberg</a>, "I wouldn't be surprised to see diesel being rationed on the East Coast this summer."Conditions are worse around the world. In Europe, diesel prices have soared 88%. The International <keyword id="11917806" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy" source="Orion">Energy</keyword> Agency said Thursday that global stockpiles of refined oil, including diesel, have fallen to extremely low levels, and shortages are already limiting transportation across various African nations as well as Yemen, Sri Lanka, and Mexico."There's been significant demand due to economies opening up domestically and globally," Rob Thummell, managing director at Tortoise Capital, told Insider. "With supply not being able to keep up with the big demand, we haven't seen anything like this in decades, since the [19]70s."Back then, motorists formed long lines at gas stations to fill up on designated days, as strict rationing was used in response to OPEC's oil embargo. Refinitiv's Mitchell doesn't anticipate the government ordering fuel rationing now, but he noted high prices are one way the market is easing demand.Still, the upcoming summer driving season will boost demand further, he added. And waning pandemic measures are leading businesses to revamp operations that now require more energy use. "There's this huge boost in business activity, and the fuel for business activity is diesel," Mitchell said.<h2>Global Market for Diesel</h2>On the supply side, some refineries were shut down when demand was lower, meaning that even when oil companies pump more crude, the remaining refineries can't churn out more diesel at the same pace.What's more, certain diesel-making regions such as California have been working to convert refineries into biodiesel hubs, which is "fantastic for the future but poses a problem for right now," according to Mitchell. US diesel supplies are also going overseas, including to places like Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, he added.The war in Ukraine is also tightening diesel availability, Thummell explained, since <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>n refiners aren't pushing supplies into the European market due to bans and self-sanctioning. According to Vortexa data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia's Baltic and Black Sea ports moved 3.32 million tons of diesel in April, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-diesel-exports-sink-diesel-prices-soar-global-fuel-market-2022-5">down 14% from February.</a>Diesel now costs so much it's hitting demand, which Mitchell calls "price rationing." That could help ease prices. "But unfortunately that also corresponds with heading into a recession."The end of the <keyword id="13186997" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine-war" source="Orion">Ukraine war</keyword> could also cool prices. But if the EU imposes an embargo on Russian oil, the diesel crisis might linger or worsen, with repercussions that could span every industry. "We're looking at at least two years of higher food prices via farming, and limited refining capacities in the world and the US," Mitchell said. "And we're still demanding more diesel than anyone can supply."

If you think gas prices are bad, diesel is in its worst crisis since the 1970s and has even raised fears of localized rationing

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="13569305" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="dow-jones-transportation-average" source="Orion">Dow Jones Transportation Average</keyword> has plunged over 20% from its record high, technically entering a <keyword id="12211354" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="bear-market" source="Orion">bear market</keyword>.</li><li>The index is used by some investors to measure the health of the economy's health, including as a possible <keyword id="12460783" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="recession" source="Orion">recession</keyword> indicator.</li></ul>A key stock-market indicator of the health of the US economy has fallen into a bear market this week as investors punish <keyword id="11894924" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="transportation" source="Orion">transportation</keyword> stocks in the face of sky-high fuel prices and slowing growth.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow-jones-transportation">The Dow Jones Transportation Average</a> has been under pressure since the start of this month. Another 3% <keyword id="13569307" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="drop" source="Orion">drop</keyword> on Wednesday brought losses since November's record high of 18,246 to 20% — the technical definition of a bear market.The index, whose origins date back to the late 19th century, is made up of transportation stocks, from logistics companies such as FedEx and UPS, airlines, to railroad operators like Union Pacific. And, as such, it can act as a bellwether for the health of the underlying economy.What's more, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dow-theory-stock-market-bullish-outlook-signal-further-gains-transportation-2020-10-1029663292">Dow Theory</a> - a financial theory named after the father of technical analysis, Charles Dow — suggests that the transportation index and the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> tend to move in tandem. Because transportation is such an integral part of everyday <keyword id="12476525" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economic-activity" source="Orion">economic activity</keyword>, if it struggles, it can be symptomatic of the broader economy struggling. The Dow Jones is only 7% off record highs, but the theory says when the two move in the same direction, it will generally be the transportation index that leads the way.Growth is still holding up, the economy is generating jobs, but with inflation at 40-year highs, astronomical fuel costs, in part because of Russia's war in Ukraine, and soaring prices for everything from oranges to bread, consumer spending is under pressure and the Federal Reserve is intent on acting as aggressively as possible to avoid a slowdown.Deutsche Bank is the first big bank to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-recession-2023-fed-interest-rate-hikes-deutsche-bank-prediction-2022-4">say</a> it now expects the US to fall into recession in 2023."A mild recession will be needed to take sufficient steam out of the economy and labor market to bring inflation back down," the bank's analysts said on Wednesday.Another market-based indicator of economic health, the Treasurys yield curve, has also been flashing red this week. That doesn't mean recession is a given, but a growing number of market watchers are saying the chances are growing."Recession is a rising risk and we see perhaps a 30% chance of that happening in the next 12-18 months," ING chief international economist James Knightley said.Data from the American Trucking Association for February, which does not capture the impact of oil prices hitting 14-year highs in March, shows this was the <a href="https://www.trucking.org/news-insights/ata-truck-tonnage-index-unchanged-february">first month since last July</a> that trucking tonnage did not increase.Shares in delivery firm FedEx have fallen by more than 20% since the start of the year, while those in rival UPS have lost about 11% in value, compared with a 6% drop in the Dow Jones. The cost of fuel has been a major drag. The price of diesel, the primary fuel for trucks, is around $5.071 a gallon, just below March's record high of $5.135 and about 65% higher than it was this time last year. The Fed must act quickly to stave off a damaging inflation spiral and some strategists worry it may have missed the boat in terms of using monetary policy to cool off inflation without triggering a recession."The Fed is now front-loading and likely to take big steps in tightening monetary policy at the May meeting. However, as the economic outlook is deteriorating they may already be too late," Philip Marey, who is senior US strategist for Rabobank, said in a recent note."The recent inversions of the yield curve suggest that this hiking cycle is going to end prematurely and could very well be followed by another recession," he said.

A 100-year old stock market indicator has tumbled into a bear market, sending a warning sign for the economy.

G'morning, readers. Two of the biggest Wall Street firms are forecasting stormy <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> to come — but one top analyst is far more optimistic thanks to his outlook on labor trends.Let's get started. New <keyword id="11894123" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="newsletter" source="Orion">newsletter</keyword> alert: If you dig this email, you'll love <a href="https://newsletter.businessinsider.com/click/27805640.90856/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYnVzaW5lc3NpbnNpZGVyLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpcHRpb24vbmV3c2xldHRlci8xMC10aGluZ3Mtb24td2FsbC1zdHJlZXQ_bnJfZW1haWxfcmVmZXJlcj0xJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9U2FpbHRocnUmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY29udGVudD1PcGVuaW5nX2JlbGw/60e39992c2f693188463b433B0d1293b6">10 Things on Wall Street</a>, which will cover the biggest stories in banking, private equity, hedge funds, and fintech. Coming soon — <a href="https://newsletter.businessinsider.com/click/27805640.90856/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYnVzaW5lc3NpbnNpZGVyLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpcHRpb24vbmV3c2xldHRlci8xMC10aGluZ3Mtb24td2FsbC1zdHJlZXQ_bnJfZW1haWxfcmVmZXJlcj0xJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9U2FpbHRocnUmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY29udGVudD1PcGVuaW5nX2JlbGw/60e39992c2f693188463b433C0d1293b6">sign up here.</a>If this was forwarded to you, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-opening-bell">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-blackrock-downgrades-us-stocks-fed-recession-rates-2022-5"></a>1. BlackRock just downgraded US stocks. The world's largest asset manager blamed the demotion on the growing threat of a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-blackrock-downgrades-us-stocks-fed-recession-rates-2022-5">Fed-induced recession</a>. The central bank has been walking a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-blackrock-downgrades-us-stocks-fed-recession-rates-2022-5">precarious line</a> between trying to tame inflation and avoiding a recession. BlackRock, which has roughly <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-blackrock-downgrades-us-stocks-fed-recession-rates-2022-5">$10 trillion under management</a>, demoted US stocks to "neutral" on Monday. "The Fed's hawkish pivot has raised the risk that markets see rates staying in restrictive territory. The year-to-date selloff partly reflects this, yet <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-blackrock-downgrades-us-stocks-fed-recession-rates-2022-5">we see no clear catalyst</a> for a rebound," BlackRock said. Morgan Stanley echoed BlackRock's bearishness, with top analyst Mike Wilson saying it is still too early to be <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bearish-morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-sp500-forecast-2022-5">bullish on stocks</a>.Wilson expects the S&amp;P 500 to drop another 14%, to about 3,400, before the end of second-quarter earnings season. Already, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bearish-morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-sp500-forecast-2022-5">the index has sunk 18% year to date</a>, dipping briefly into a bear market one day last week.But the turmoil hasn't dampened the optimism of Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Bad economic news is likely good news for stocks, Lee said, and investors are increasingly seeking clues for what might put an end to the highest inflation in four decades."Incoming data could show labor market weakening ... and thus [the] job market could be cooling at a pace <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bad-news-is-good-news-inflation-fundstrat-2022-5?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">faster than implied</a> by tighter financial conditions," he said.In other news:<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/nearly-half-crypto-investors-2021-six-figure-incomes-fed-survey-2022-5"></a><div type="image" title="Visual representation of the digital cryptocurrency bitcoin" height="512" width="1024" msid="91766811" hostid="261"></div>2. US stock futures fall early Tuesday, after a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/snap-stock-price-economic-downturn-slower-hiring-lower-revenue-2022-5">profit warning from Snap</a> impacted the wider market and fueled concerns about economic growth. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-markets-today-global-stocks-us-futures-drop-snap-growth-2022-5">Here are the latest moves</a>. 3. On deck today: Best Buy, Ralph Lauren, and Citi Trends, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">all reporting</a>. Plus, look out for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Reservation Economic Summit, and the ISM Semiannual Report On Business Economic Forecast.4. RBC said these beaten-down internet stocks have the most upside in the sector. Internet stocks can be squeezed into two groups, according to Brad Erickson of RBC — those that were squeezed for little reason, and those that are in trouble. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-picks-to-buy-best-internet-bargains-invest-in-rbc-2022-5">Here are his four favorite stock picks. </a>5. Snap plummets as much as 28% in Tuesday's premarket trading. It comes after CEO Evan Spiegel warned the company is <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/snap-stock-price-economic-downturn-slower-hiring-lower-revenue-2022-5">likely to miss its revenue targets</a> for the current quarter. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/internal-memo-from-snap-ceo-evan-spiegel-on-hiring-slowdown-2022-5?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">In a memo obtained by Insider</a>, Spiegel also said Snap is slowing hiring to combat a "challenging macroeconomic environment." <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/snap-stock-price-economic-downturn-slower-hiring-lower-revenue-2022-5">Snap's sharp fall spooked the wider market, fanning investor's fears about an economic slowdown. </a>6. Russia's biggest oil company has slashed production levels. As per Bloomberg, Rosneft was producing around 3.8 million barrels a day in February, but that had fallen to 3.24 million by the middle of this month — following oil bans from the US and UK. However, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-production-cuts-rosneft-sanctions-ukraine-energy-markets-2022-5">there are signs that Russian producers are getting used to the restrictions.</a>7. "Big Short" investor Michael Burry said Warren Buffett is unique — and he explained how the billionaire has perfected the key to investing success. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-warren-buffett-unique-berkshire-hathaway-tweets-2022-5">Here' how the elder statesman's idiosyncrasies are a key part to his outsized successes.</a>8. Crypto venture capitalists shared their insights into how the industry bleeds a massive $200 billion in market value every single day. "The great thing about bear markets is that you can sleep at night," one analyst said. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/crypto-bitcoin-ethereum-bear-assets-market-token-venture-capital-2022-5">"You don't have to FOMO in."</a> 9. A Federated Hermes strategy chief who warned about stagflation two months just detailed a potential recession. Phil Orlando warned investors in March about stagflation — and he broke down why his firm is loading up on cash <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-risk-prediction-economy-how-to-invest-stocks-federated-hermes-2022-5">as "cracks in the armor" in the economy begin to form.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/diesel-supply-crisis-record-price-white-house-gas-emergency-reserves-2022-5"></a><div type="image" title="Central Atlantic diesel" height="940" width="1240" msid="91766812" hostid="261"></div>10. The White House may look to tap a rarely used emergency diesel reserve as the shortage of the key fuel persists. Prices for diesel have hovered near record highs, and an administration official told CNN that the nation may turn to the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve — <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/diesel-supply-crisis-record-price-white-house-gas-emergency-reserves-2022-5">which has only been used once before.</a>Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out <a href="https://link.chtbl.com/therefresh">The Refresh from Insider</a>, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. <a href="https://link.chtbl.com/therefresh">Listen here.</a>Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email <a href="mailto:prosen@insider.com">prosen@insider.com</a> or tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/philrosenn">@philrosenn</a>.) Edited by Hallam Bullock (tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/hallam_bullock">@hallam_bullock</a>) in London.

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