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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Former President Donald Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Trump won largely by breaching Democrats' "blue wall."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> won a second term in office, overcoming an intense level of political opposition — as well as doubts over his fitness for office — by driving home a message that he would be the best candidate for Americans' pocketbooks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1854053633198825482">Fox News</a> called the race early Wednesday morning. A little under four hours later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CNN/status/1854109735076676021">CNN</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854109434735169912">NBC News</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CBSNews/status/1854111079984501068">CBS News</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ABCPolitics/status/1854111153305088285">ABC News</a> also called a Trump victory after the result in Wisconsin put Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win the presidency.In defeating Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, Trump will return to the White House after voters ousted him from office in the 2020 election.Trump had essentially been running for president since his 2020 loss. He sought to overturn Joe Biden's victory and was impeached by the US House of Representatives for "incitement of insurrection" over his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. (He was later acquitted by the US Senate.)In November 2022, Trump launched his presidential campaign on the heels of a disappointing night for the GOP, as the party failed to retake the Senate and only barely won back a House majority. But he used the head start to hammer potential GOP primary opponents and gradually reaffirmed his standing as the party's leader.Trump easily dispatched top figures like Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wife-kids-family-photos">Ron DeSantis</a> of Florida and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-family-husband-kids-immigrant-parents-photos">Nikki Haley</a>, the former ambassador to the UN, in the 2024 GOP primaries, which further strengthened his hand as he eyed a general-election rematch against Biden.But Biden's exit from the race — following a disastrous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate against Trump</a> in June — paved the way for Harris' candidacy. The vice president quickly consolidated Democratic support and attracted the sort of donor base that was able to compete directly with GOP megadonors.Still, Trump continued to hold a polling advantage on the economy throughout the general-election race, which for many voters overrode concerns over his behavior while in office.And despite Harris' strong start and her robust campaign apparatus, she was still unable to overcome Trump's enduring level of support from his conservative base.Addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning, before the race was called, Trump said his election victory would usher in the "golden age of America" and vowed to "help our country heal.""America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he added.Trump's return to the White House is also poised to have profound effects on the judiciary.Should either Associate Justices <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-takes-aim-at-osha-2024-7">Clarence Thomas</a> or Samuel Alito retire from the bench within the next four years, Trump has the potential to name at least one more conservative jurist to the court. And if he is able to appoint two additional justices, it means that a majority of the court would consist of his appointees — a stunning level of influence that could have reverberations for generations.

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AOC during a recent Instagram Q&amp;A asked voters why they backed her candidacy and Trump's reelection.</li><li>The responses were candid, and many pointed to the economy and the conflict in Gaza.</li></ul>Similar to Democrats across the country reflecting on Vice President Kamala Harris' election loss, New York Rep. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aoc-democratic-national-convention-speech-political-evolution-progressives-mainstream-2024-8">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> has spent time thinking about the ramifications of President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House. Ocasio-Cortez, a strong backer of Harris and one of the most progressive voices in the US House of Representatives, took to Instagram this past weekend where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/SJohnson99/status/1855782107118735587/video/1">she argued that "most people" aren't ready</a> for the president-elect in office again. During her conversation, she highlighted Trump's pledge to initiate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-thomas-homan-illegal-immigration-border-czar-ice-2024-11">mass deportations</a> as well as his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">tariff threats</a>. Then Ocasio-Cortez opened up the floor to Instagram users, asking for responses from people who backed her reelection in New York's 14th Congressional District and Trump's candidacy or who backed Trump and downballot Democrats in other states. Many of the responses pointed to two key issues: the economy and the conflict in Gaza. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-democrats-suburban-voters-unions-2024-11">Harris crafted an economic message</a> that she believed would differentiate herself from President Joe Biden, who stepped aside as the presumptive Democratic nominee in July. And the vice president sought to reassure voters concerned over the Israel-Hamas war and the plight of Palestinians that she would work to secure peace in the region as president. But she wasn't able to counter Trump's electoral performance. A slew of Instagram users said they registered their general frustration by not supporting Harris. The responses to Ocasio-Cortez included: <ul><li>"It's real simple… Trump and you care for the working class"</li><li>"Trump is going to get us the money and lets men have a voice. You're brilliant and have amazing passion!"</li><li>"I feel like Trump and you are both real."</li><li>"I know people that did this and it was bc of Gaza."</li><li>"You are focused on the real issues people care about. Similar to Trump populism in some ways."</li><li>"Because of Gaza"</li><li>"I voted Trump and dems because he reached out to Muslims"</li></ul>Democrats struggled to rally core parts of their longtime base — which included younger Black men and Latino voters — which benefited Trump. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-margins-democratic-states-harris-underperform-2024-11">The president-elect made major inroads</a>, notably in several Democratic-heavy states, as many voters remained frustrated over the direction of the country. Harris argued that her presidency would have tackled of some of the biggest economic and foreign policy challenges that the country faced, but in the end she wasn't able to recreate Biden's 2020 coalition. Correction: November 12, 2024 — An earlier version of this story overstated what is known about the people who responded to Rep. <keyword id="22445548" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez" source="keywords">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</keyword> on Instagram. It's unclear whether the respondents voted.

AOC asked voters why they backed her candidacy and Trump's reelection. Instagram users pointed to the economy and Gaza.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Election Day is just two days away.</li><li>Harris and Trump are campaigning in swing states as they make their final appeals to voters.</li></ul>With Election Day on Tuesday, the end is in sight for what has been a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">contentious US presidential race</a> between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.More than 68 million Americans have already cast their ballots, a stunning figure that demonstrates the high interest and high stakes in a contest that has had more twists and turns than any presidential contest in recent memory.Throughout the campaign, Trump has benefited from unease over the economy, a consistently top issue for voters. When President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, it was his biggest vulnerability, despite low unemployment and consistent job gains after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.Inflation has been driving much of the voter anxiety about the economy. Although wages have increased in recent years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/briefing/us-job-market-biden-ev-push.html">higher prices</a> have affected the finances of millions.After Biden stepped aside as the nominee in July and Harris became the Democratic Party standard bearer, she immediately focused on the issue, vowing to attack price gouging and unveiling a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">broad economic plan</a> of her own.It wasn't long before Harris began to narrow the gap between the Democrats and the GOP in the presidential race.Now, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-15-days-swing-states-polling-2024-10">in its final days</a>, the race remains tight, with both candidates virtually tied in the swing states as they make their last appeals to voters.<h2 id="50876ac4-ebc3-448d-bba2-b26367be04b6">The battleground states remain close</h2>Harris' clearest path to reach 270 electoral votes — and an overall victory — is to sweep every Democratic stronghold and blue-leaning state while also winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris." height="5504" width="8256" msid="114911575" hostid="261" sizebytes="1811384"></div>Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin form a critical core of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">the "blue wall" of states</a> that backed Democratic presidential nominees from 1992 until 2012, but have more recently been less reliable for Democrats.The three states — which both Harris and Trump have crisscrossed in their hunt for votes — contain urban, suburban, and rural areas that will be key for each candidate in the race.(Pennsylvania offers 19 electoral votes, while Michigan has 15, and Wisconsin has 10. Nebraska's 2nd offers one vote, which could be decisive for Harris.)In 2016, Trump breached the blue wall, winning all three states by making inroads with working-class voters that had previously supported former President Barack Obama, including a critical bloc of independents and union workers.But in 2020, Biden <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-sweeps-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-battleground-states-election-2020-11">flipped the blue wall states</a> back into the Democratic column, but only narrowly. That year, Biden also won Nebraska's Omaha-anchored 2nd District, and recent polling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/">suggests</a> that Harris may, in fact, also hold an advantage there.Harris has directed much of her energy on these states, where she'll need to perform well to counter Trump's stronger standing in the Sun Belt.<h2 id="334dda81-d219-41e5-bd70-2bd8ffaf260b">The Sun Belt states</h2>Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-sun-belt-gains-trump-swing-states-polls-2024-8">appeared favored</a> to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina when he was running against Biden. But Harris' candidacy activated young and minority voters who were unenthusiastic about Biden, allowing her to broaden the Democratic map.As a result, the Sun Belt states remain competitive. Republicans <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024">appear to have built an early-vote advantage</a> in Nevada. However, Election Day turnout and the direction of the remaining mail-in ballots remain anyone's guess.Voters in the Sun Belt have been focused on the economy and immigration, two issues that benefit Trump. But Harris has managed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/elections/trump-harris-economy-poll.html">cut into Trump's edge</a> on economic issues while also polling strongly on issues like abortion, democracy, and supporting the middle class.<h2 id="f8034860-3827-40ca-abe2-4b0ee46c261d">We could see a historic gender gap</h2>Shortly before Biden left the race, he held a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">small advantage</a> with women, while Trump fared much better with male voters.However, with Harris as the Democratic nominee — and the potential for the United States to elect its first-ever female president — the country will likely see a historically large gender gap once all the votes are counted.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump at a rally." height="4328" width="6648" msid="114911576" hostid="261" sizebytes="731590"></div>Harris' robust female stems, in part, from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-beyonce-abortion-reproductive-rights-trump-allred-2024-10">abortion rights</a>. The Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, sending the issue of abortion back to the states. Now, millions of women live in states with near-total abortion bans, while millions of other women live in states where abortion rights have been strengthened.In the closing days of the race, Harris has heavily emphasized the issue, which also helped Democrats in the 2022 midterms.Meanwhile, Trump has appeared on podcasts that appeal to conservative-leaning male listeners and seems to have attracted some significant support from young Black and Latino men, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://api.genforwardsurvey.com/download/442/?f=true&amp;_gl=1*jq7n7p*_ga*OTI5MzUxOTAzLjE3Mjk2OTUzMzc.*_ga_CSCXTK5ECE*MTcyOTY5NTMzNi4xLjEuMTcyOTY5NjQ4NS4wLjAuMA">according to polling</a>.The huge gender gap is illustrated in a recent top-rated national poll.A late October <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/27/us/elections/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html">New York Times/Siena College survey</a> of likely voters showed Trump ahead of Harris by 14 points among men (55% to 41%), while Harris held a 12-point edge over Trump (54% to 42%) with women. Overall, the survey showed the race tied, with the candidates each earning 48% support from respondents.

The US presidential election is 2 days away. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>There are just 15 days until Election Day.</li><li>The presidential race remains razor close, with control of the White House at a coin-flip.</li></ul>In just over two weeks, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">Election Day 2024</a> will be here — a final cap to a wild, at times unprecedented presidential fight that, for the moment, remains far too close to call.The story of the 2024 race is that amid the chaos — President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-election-2024-10">Kamala Harris</a>' emergence, and two assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump's life — control of the White House still hinges on a coin-flip.As pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson pointed out, the 2024 race is exceptional because there has been little movement in national polling since Labor Day, the traditional starting date of the final pre-Election Day slog. Without a second presidential debate between Trump and Harris, there are also no major moments left that could presumably shake up the race. All that remains are the unexpected "October surprises," though, in today's media environment, the bar for earth-shattering is pretty hard to cross if you're not North Carolina Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-robinson-trump-north-carolina-gop-harris-election-2024-9">Mark Robinson</a>. (And even then, can one really be surprised when it comes to him?)The good news for Trump is that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-election-2024-10">he has gained ground</a> since his widely panned debate performance against Harris. The RealClearPolitics national average has narrowed by roughly 0.5 percentage points in the past week. Noted election forecaster Nate Silver's model now shows Trump with an extremely slight lead in what continues to remain a toss-up race. According to FiveThirtyEight's state averages, Trump has narrowed Harris' lead in the three so-called Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.Harris trolled Trump on Friday for being "exhausted," referencing a string of interviews he has reportedly walked away from."Well, if you are exhausted on the campaign trail, it raises real questions about whether you are fit for the toughest job in the world," Harris said in Michigan, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/18/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/trump-skips-another-interview-00184327">referencing a Politico report</a> that Trump begged out of an interview due to "exhaustion."In response, Trump said she's a "loser" who "doesn't have the energy of a rabbit."Instead, the former president has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-going-for-crypto-bro-vote-world-liberty-financial-2024-9">hit the podcast circuit hard</a> — approaching the end of the campaign like a retired athlete loaded with stories from the glory days. In all seriousness, his team is focusing on young men. It appears to be working. According to The New York Times, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/upshot/polls-trump-harris-young-men.html">Trump leads Harris among young men</a> "58 percent to 37 percent, across the last three Times/Siena national polls." In contrast, Harris is driving an even larger gender gap among young women.In an era of close elections, 2024 is entering the home stretch with the potential to be one of the closest on record.<h2 id="5b26390b-d82d-4995-9be4-9043c97c0ea9">The big names are about to come out.</h2>Amid the final push, both campaigns are turning to a mix of their top surrogates. Like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton before her, Harris has virtually every top Democrat at her beck and call. She's set to stump with both Obamas separately in Georgia and Michigan, respectively. In recent days, Harris has also appeared alongside former "Shark Tank" star <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-mark-cuban-campaign-swing-states-sec-chair-2024-10">Mark Cuban</a>, her go-to billionaire. Former Congresswoman <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-is-back-on-the-2024-campaign-trail-2024-10">Liz Cheney</a> and other top Republicans will also continue to push Harris' theme of democracy and attack the former president for his refusal to accept his 2020 loss.Harris' team has teased bigger guests. They have touted a Get Out the Vote concert in pop star <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/charli-xcx-responds-to-kamala-is-brat-reaction-x-cnn-2024-8">Charli XCX's signature "Brat Green."</a> Democrats often turn to musicians and celebrities to make the final push. Obama ended his reelection with an Election Eve rally in Des Moines, Iowa, accompanied by a Bruce Springsteen performance. Clinton called on the Boss and Bon Jovi to campaign with her at her final 2016 rally in Philadelphia. The pandemic muted the 2020 race, but there's little doubt about big spectacles this time.Trump is getting an early start with a rally in New York City's Madison Square Garden. He's never had as deep of a bench or as glitzy of guests as the Democrats. It's still news when his wife, former first lady <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/melania-trump-book-memoir-scandals-2024-10">Melania Trump,</a> joins him — as she did for Thursday night's Al Smith dinner.The former president's entire appeal is predicated on breaking with traditional US politics. It's why few, if any, GOP standard-bearers ever campaign with him. His actions leading up to and during the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot have also further eroded relationships, namely with his former running mate, Mike Pence, who has said Trump endangered his family. On Friday, "Fox &amp; Friends" cohosts practically begged Trump to campaign with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Instead of talking about his former primary foe, Trump extolled Tesla CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-america-super-pac-2024-10">Elon Musk</a>. The world's richest man has donated roughly $75 million to a pro-Trump super PAC he founded. Musk also joined Trump for a recent rally and is now hosting his own series of events.<h2 id="8f498ba3-30f7-454c-82a3-9ead88ce5113">Here's where the all-important Electoral College map stands.</h2>With those numbers in mind, there's a clear picture of how each candidate can win.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan." height="3587" width="5381" msid="114396471" hostid="261" sizebytes="321400"></div><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">Harris' easiest path</a> remains what was once Biden's Hail Mary strategy before he dropped out of the race: sweep the Great Lakes states and complete the Blue Wall with Nebraska's blue dot. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have voted for the same presidential candidate since 1992. But in a razor-close election, there's always the possibility that one could fall out.Most models predict that if Trump wins Pennsylvania again, he will be the next president. If he punches a hole elsewhere, Harris could repair the damage by picking up a state like North Carolina — though the Tar Heel state has only voted for a Democratic presidential nominee once this century (Obama's 2008 victory). There's also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-trump-georgia-battleground-state-suburbs-2024-8">the possibility of Georgia</a>, a state that you might remember that Biden won by just 11,779 votes in 2020.The good news for the vice president comes from Nebraska. Like Maine, Nebraska awards some of its Electoral College votes by congressional district. In the overwhelmingly conservative state, there's a swing district, the Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd. Obama narrowly won it in 2008. Nebraska Republicans then successfully pushed to gerrymander the seat. Amid a broader demographic realignment, Biden easily won the district in 2020. Trump's best plan for Warren Buffett's backyard was a last-minute change to the state law. But <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nebraska-2nd-electoral-college-vote-omaha-harris-mcdonnell-2024-9">it didn't work</a>. It means there is still a possibility that Harris wins the presidency 270 to 268, avoiding the possibility of just the second tie in the nation's history.Trump's team once dreamed of flipping Minnesota, New Hampshire, and perhaps even New Mexico in a rout of Biden. Since Harris' rise, they have tried to hang on to North Carolina. It's quite possible Trump could flip Georgia and Arizona, seizing on his increased standing among Black and Latino men. But barring a major surprise, Trump's best path remains to find a way to flip at least one Great Lakes state.

We are 15 days from the 2024 presidential election. Here's where things stand. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Election Day is now just 50 days away.</li><li>Kamala Harris is riding a wave of enthusiasm and was deemed the winner of the first debate.</li></ul>The US presidential election is just 50 days away and the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">remains as competitive as ever</a>.Days after the first — and maybe only — nationally televised <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">debate</a> between Harris and Trump, the campaign is growing intense as both candidates work to shore up support among their political base and court voters in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">the key battleground states</a> that'll likely determine the election's outcome.The campaign has already seen its fair share of historic turns. And to underscore that anything can still happen to change the trajectory of the race, the FBI is now investigating what they said "appears" to be a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-shots-fired-florida-golf-course-2024-9">second assassination attempt</a> against Trump near his West Palm Beach golf course in Florida on Sunday.The incident comes just months after the July assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-butler-pennsylvania-rally-secret-service-2024-7">the former president sustained a gunshot wound</a> to his ear during an outdoor rally. Officials said no one was injured in Sunday's incident.The first assassination attempt ushered in a wave of populist support for Trump, who — for a brief moment — seemed to be running away with the election, especially with a shaky debate performance from President Joe Biden. Then, a week after the attempted shooting, Biden announced he would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">exit the race</a> and endorse Harris, and everything changed.Harris has been riding a wave of growing support ever since. The recent debate in Philadelphia was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/early-polls-harris-won-presidential-debate/story?id=113590484">widely seen as a success</a> for Harris, who made her campaign appeal in front of her largest single-day audience since Biden stepped aside.Nationally, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-debate-winner-maintaining-slight-lead-trump-poll/story?id=113673862">latest ABC News/Ipsos poll</a> shows Harris with a six-point lead over Trump (52% to 46%) among likely voters.But as Americans know well, it's about the electoral college, not the popular vote. So, in the next seven weeks, a lot of math will be performed as the candidates make a mad grab for any available votes.<h2 id="5417ab6b-8413-4dbe-9a0f-c0c386e80c68">Harris and Trump do the electoral math</h2>After Biden left the race, the Democratic Party rallied around Harris.Polling in critical swing states — like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/15/north-carolina-trump-harris-campaigns">North Carolina</a> — immediately began to shift, largely due to the vice president's popularity among women and young voters.In the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wisconsin-kamala-harris-trump-presidential-swing-state-2024-7">Wisconsin</a>, Harris and Trump remain neck and neck — though Harris has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/">seen her position strengthen</a> in Wisconsin.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump" height="2391" width="3586" msid="113391729" hostid="261" sizebytes="133252"></div>Both campaigns are eying Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district, which is anchored in the Omaha metropolitan area. The district offers just one electoral vote, but in a sign of just how close American elections have become, both sides consider it crucial. Trump won it in 2016. Biden won it in 2020.The Harris campaign hopes the Midwestern roots of her vice presidential pick, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, will help the Democrats hold onto the 2nd district. Walz will face off against Ohio Sen. JD Vance, who also has Midwestern roots, on October 1 in what could be the last debate of the election season.Michigan, another Midwestern state, also remains competitive. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer warned Democrats <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/whitmer-harris-michigan-polls-presidential-election-democrats-trump-2024-9">not to believe the polls</a> showing Harris with a comfortable lead in the state.Both campaigns continue to pour considerable time and financial resources into <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-pennsylvania-presidential-debate-philadelphia-fracking-abortion-2024-9">Pennsylvania</a>, where Democratic candidates have won every presidential election since 1992 except for one — when Trump won it in 2016.Trump hopes to reclaim Pennsylvania and a handful of other states that flipped to the Democrats between 2016 and 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Earlier this summer, the GOP eyed potential upsets in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nhjournal.com/new-st-as-post-debate-poll-finds-harris-holds-8-point-lead-in-nh/">New Hampshire</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/09/10/virginia-poll-results-harris-trump/">Virginia</a>, but recent polling shows that both states are likely to remain in the Democratic column this fall.<h2 id="6ee67ad4-6058-453b-b5cf-cda5e041c1aa">The vice-presidential debate looms large</h2>Walz and Vance's October debate in New York City will give the American public their first chance at seeing both men together onstage in a major setting.For Walz, it'll be a chance to sway undecided voters who may be leaning toward Harris but want to hear more from the Democratic ticket about their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">plans for the economy</a>.<div type="image" title="Kamala Harris" height="3000" width="4500" msid="113391736" hostid="261" sizebytes="674482"></div>While Harris' debate performance went a long way in assuaging some voters regarding her ability to lead the country, some are still undecided. Walz could be an effective conduit for those voters.For Vance, the debate will allow him to speak about the Republican ticket's policy message in a manner that eludes Trump, who often veers off-script.Walz has seen favorable polling in recent weeks. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-tim-walz-sun-belt-independent-voters-polls-2024-8">Vance has not</a>.Vance has been highly visible in the media but has been forced to repeatedly defend himself against past stances on issues like IVF — as well as newer controversies like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-haitian-immigrants-ohio-eating-pets-trump-2024-9">his remarks regarding Haitian immigrants</a> in Springfield, Ohio.So while the momentum may be for now in the Democrats' favor, 50 days is a long time in a race that has seen major shifts in time spans as short as a week. Who will be on top by the time voting is finished on November 5 remains anyone's guess.

We are 50 days from the US presidential election. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Teamsters last week declined to endorse a candidate in the 2024 presidential race.</li><li>It's a stunning decision given Kamala Harris' strong pro-union stance on key issues.</li></ul>The Teamsters last week declined to back Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, marking the first time since 1996 that the union has not endorsed a presidential candidate.It came as a shock to many Democrats. The Biden administration is strongly allied with organized labor and helped shore up the Teamsters pension fund <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/12/08/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-historic-relief-to-protect-hard-earned-pensions-of-hundreds-of-thousands-of-union-workers-and-retirees/#:~:text=Today%2C%20joined%20by%20Teamster%20President,earned%20pensions%20of%20over%20350%2C000">to the tune of roughly $36 billion</a>.Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was none too pleased with the Teamsters' non-endorsement and expressed her dissatisfaction with the leadership of Sean O'Brien, the union's president."I'm very disappointed in Sean O'Brien's leadership," the New York Democratic lawmaker told CNN's Manu Raju last week. "I have found it increasingly alarming all year.""When the Teamsters are in trouble, who do they call when we need to make sure that Teamsters pensions are bailed out? ... It was Sean O'Brien calling Democrats for help," she continued.Ocasio-Cortez's remarks reveal just how much unions will matter in this election — especially with organizing and turnout efforts. And the consequential decision from the Teamsters has only heightened the efforts of both parties to make their case to rank-and-file members.<h2 id="4d85b5d1-4544-41c4-82a7-53d3384ac473">The Teamsters divide</h2>O'Brien last week <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4887442-teamsters-union-endorsement-sean-obrien/">told The Hill</a> that the Teamsters won't back Harris or Trump because the union "couldn't get commitments on our issues" from either candidate.In a CNN interview, O'Brien hit back at Ocasio-Cortez, saying the congresswoman "should maybe get into her district where it voted far-right Republican."O'Brien was referring to what he said were the results of union membership polling in her 14th Congressional district, where he said members overwhelmingly backed Trump.When Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee earlier this year, he edged out Trump via in-person straw polls among members (44.3% to 36.3%), <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://teamster.org/2024/09/teamsters-release-presidential-endorsement-polling-data/">according to the Teamsters</a>. But in a national electronic poll that was open from from July 24 through September 15, Trump held an advantage (59.6% to 34%) over Harris among union members.In a separate union survey, Trump also led Harris — this time 58% to 31%.O'Brien later said of Ocasio-Cortez: "She may want to focus on her job instead of mine."Shortly after O'Brien's CNN interview, Ocasio-Cortez responded to the union leader, arguing that Teamsters in her district were lined up behind Harris and her vice-presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz."The NY-14 Teamsters mentioned here have actually voted overwhelmingly to endorse Harris-Walz. Just as Teamsters in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have, too," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/AOC/status/1836816083858116716">she said on X</a>. "It's a big thing to be wrong about. So let's set the record straight: Teamsters Local 202 are all in for Harris."The congresswoman attached a letter from the New York City-based Teamsters Local Union No. 202, which said its executive board "unanimously" backed Harris and Walz.After O'Brien's announcement last week, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid032b44mPxVu8DXhc2cwQm5rfcruMJYzMr6Y8fCU8JZfPWymWz9j4QJomGFwbTEdc3Tl&amp;id=100090106275788">slew of Teamsters regional councils</a> — which include thousands of members and retirees in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — threw their support behind Harris.<h2 id="61bc2a3f-aa15-4d1a-ada3-f4365d85e18b">The Upper Midwest will be critical in November</h2>James P. Hoffa, who was the president of the Teamsters for 23 years before his retirement in 2022, said in a statement that the union's non-endorsement was a "critical error.""There is only one candidate in this race that has supported working families and unions throughout their career," he said. "And that is Vice President Kamala Harris."<div type="image" title="Kamala Harris" height="2667" width="4000" msid="113578088" hostid="261" sizebytes="73256"></div>Trump, who is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">seeking to win over more union members</a> this year, took a victory lap after the O'Brien announcement."The Teamsters carry a lot of weight," the ex-president told reporters last week. "The Democrats cannot believe it. Look, it was always automatic that Democrats get the Teamsters, and they said, 'We won't endorse the Democrats this year,' so that was an honor for me."The tug of war for union support reflects the high stakes for both candidates, particularly in the Upper Midwest, where organized labor has long been a robust political force.Trump in 2016 won the presidency in part because of his appeal with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">critical bloc of union households</a> in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all swing states that are core parts of the Democratic "blue wall."The former president won all three states that year, but Biden flipped them back into the blue column in 2020.This year, both Trump and Harris are aiming to win these battleground states, with the ex-president touting his support for protectionist trade measures and the Democratic nominee stressing that her staunch support for labor would mirror that of Biden should she win the White House.

AOC's attack on Teamsters leadership shows just how much unions are going to matter in the presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks fell as investors braced for the US presidential election on Tuesday. </li><li>Kamala Harris has gained momentum recently, hitting popular Trump trades in the market. </li></ul>US stocks traded lower on Monday as investors turned their attention to the presidential election on Tuesday. More than 76 million Americans have voted via mail-in ballots or early in person, suggesting a potential record turnout this year.After <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-iowa-polling-lead-swing-states-2024-11">a shock Iowa poll showed Kamala Harris leading in the state</a> against Donald Trump over the weekend, betting odds tightened in the race after Trump spent the weeks leading up to the vote far ahead of Harris. Harris' momentum in the election's final days <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-trump-trade-impact-kamala-harris-rising-election-odds-2024-11">weighed on the Trump trade on Monday,</a> with Treasury yields, the US dollar, and bitcoin all falling.For a full rundown of the implications for the economy and stock market based on who wins the election, read BI's deep dive on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">the potential impacts here.</a>Analysts from Citi on Monday noted that the stock market isn't behaving like it has in past election years. Stocks tend to waver amid the uncertainty, but the rally has largely continued in the months leading to the vote, suggesting that investors are more attuned to macroeconomic data and earnings. "US equities have been very strong coming into this election cycle compared to the past," the analysts said. "The current anomaly has less to do with the market pricing a certain election outcome but more to do with an expectation of continued interest rate cutting combined with a likely shallower US economic slowdown.After the election, investors will shift their attention to the Federal Reserve. The central bank's next policy meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">with an interest rate decision to come at 2 p.m. ET Thursday.</a>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 96% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,712.73, down 0.28% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,794.60, down 0.61% (-257.59 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,179.98, 0.33%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/berkshire-hathaway-apple-stake-cut-quarterly-earnings-2024-11">Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its stake in Apple again. The conglomerate is now sitting of $325 billion in cash.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-2024-11">Stocks might "go nowhere" for the rest of the year amid Fed uncertainty and US debt concerns, Ed Yardeni said.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-political-spending-elections-2026-midterms-coinbase-fairshake-super-pac-2024-11">A crypto PAC has already raised tons of cash for the 2026 midterm elections. </a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for crude-exporting countries.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-replace-intel-dow-jones-industrial-average-2024-11">Nvidia will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Sherwin-Williams will replace Dow.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 2.96% to $71.55 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 2.76% to $75.12 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> declined 0.08% to $2,746.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield declined 8 basis points to 4.314%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> decreased 1.64% to $67,617.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes drop ahead of Tuesday's presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Legal experts told BI the outcome of this year's election may be decided in court, not the ballot box.</li><li>Groups aligned with Donald Trump are preparing for challenges in Georgia and other swing states.</li></ul>This year's election is shaping up to be decided in court, rather than the ballot box, legal experts told Business Insider, and both <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-key-cases-civil-criminal-investigations-lawsuits-updates-2022-7">Donald Trump</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> are preparing for a nasty legal battle to duke it out.Republican groups, both formally and informally aligned with Trump, are preparing to challenge the outcome of the election in multiple <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">battleground states</a>.In Georgia, The Guardian reported Trump allies have adopted new rules for the state's election board, allowing members to potentially delay certification of the election over undefined inquiries into ballot discrepancies.In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/arizona-gop-immigration-abortion-ballot-measures-hobbs-2024-6">Arizona</a>, Michigan, and Nevada, per The Washington Post, the GOP has pushed for voter rolls to be purged despite established federal limits on doing so in the months before the election. Republicans in Nevada also filed suit to prevent mail-in ballots from being counted if they're received after election day, though the legal rationale behind the suit has been repeatedly dismissed by courts in the past, the outlet noted."You now have, in the swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, about 70 election deniers and commissions that are supposed to count the electoral votes, and already there have been about 20 cases where officials in recent elections have refused or delayed certification of results," David Driesen, a law professor at Syracuse University and the author of the book "The Specter of Dictatorship: Judicial Enabling of Presidential Power," told Business Insider."So what Trump is going to do is claim some kind of fraud and then try to get the officials who believe him to delay or prevent certification on election results," Driesen said.Jonathan Diaz, the director for voting advocacy at the Campaign Legal Center, told BI that he expects a lot of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tests-limits-scotus-immunity-ruling-wants-manhattan-conviction-tossed-2024-7">litigation around the election</a> "as, unfortunately, has become the norm."Prior to the 2020 election, he said, there used to be a flurry of litigation right before election day about polling places and mail-in ballots. But, he said, there has been a shift since 2020 favoring challenges to post-election processes and lawsuits about counting ballots and certifying official results.<h2 id="24974903-8253-40d7-b4ba-fbfc9811028a">A reinvigorated election denial strategy</h2>While concerns have surged over certification challenges and the purging of voter rolls, Harris' campaign has bolstered its senior legal team in preparation to face off in court, The New York Times reported.The anticipated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-lawsuits-kamala-harris-campaign-finance-ballot-election-will-fail-2024-7">legal challenges</a>, largely focusing on delays in certifying results and questions over ballot counts in swing states, could result in a situation where Harris can't claim electoral votes that she's won, Driesen said."Or, at least, in a lot of litigation chaos it could end up putting things in the House of Representatives, or could go to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-rulings-executive-power-grab-strengthen-judiciary-2024-7">Supreme Court</a> — which is in Trump's pocket," Driesen told BI. "I think that's the strategy, is to try to prevent certification of Harris victories in the swing states where there are substantial numbers of election law deniers. And sometimes they may also try to have state legislatures certify alternative slates of electors, using the inability to certify as an approach."Both Diaz and Driesen noted that Trump attempted to challenge the legal results of the election in 2020, and the democratic system worked as it was supposed to at the time. In more than 60 challenges over the results of the 2020 election, judges across the political spectrum — including some appointed by Trump himself — roundly dismissed Trump's claims of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/esper-trump-campaign-2020-election-challenges-national-embarrassment-courts-book-2022-5">voter fraud,</a> and President Joe Biden's win was ultimately certified across the nation.Diaz said that, while the lawsuits filed so far by groups aligned with Trump have largely been frivolous, and he's hopeful the democratic system will again reject Trump's false claims of fraud, the challenges themselves are still dangerous."Even if those efforts are not ultimately legally successful in removing people from the roles or in affecting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/scotus-rules-trump-eligibility-campaign-president-colorado-super-tuesday-2024-3">election procedures</a>, they contribute to a really dangerous public narrative of misinformation around election security and around election processes," Diaz said. "They help to plant the seeds for future efforts to overturn election results that don't go the way that these people want."Representatives for the Trump campaign and Harris' legal team did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.

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