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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Expect a re-acceleration of inflation for the rest of 2024 into 2025, says Michael Landsberg.</li><li>High shipping rates and daily living expenses indicate that inflation could be worse than expected.</li></ul>A few months ago, it seemed like the war on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">inflation</a> had been won.Wall Street strategists were expecting inflation to continue cooling down into 2025, clearing the way for a series of consistent rate cuts as the Federal Reserve insisted price increases were no longer a threat. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 2.4% from last year — closing in on the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wasn't so sure. He saw signs in the market pointing to a re-acceleration of inflation in the last few months of 2024 and into 2025.Now, it seems like Landsberg may be right. After a Trump victory, concerns about inflation are creeping up again as proposed policies such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-hit-company-stock-profits-hardest-china-investing-manufacturing-2024-11">tariffs</a> could push prices up. And as the October CPI report showed, inflation is back on the rise, with prices increasing 2.6% year-over-year. In an interview with Business Insider, Landsberg shared the economic indicators he's watching to monitor inflation and the best way to prepare your portfolio in case of another flare up.<h2 id="7dc40d47-f3ee-4de6-bd68-d838e6c9299f">'Higher for longer'</h2>Inflation could rise to 3% as early as January and hit a mid-3% level in 2025, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle, in Landsburg's view. He's expecting the Fed to pause rate cuts in December.Landsberg believes the Bureau of Labor Statistics' metrics aren't providing the full inflation picture. He's keeping his eye out on other economic indicators that provide a more on-the-ground look at inflation levels.First, rising Chinese shipping rates are a telling sign of inflation. China is one of the US' biggest trading partners, so an increase in transportation costs between the two countries will likely trickle down and reflect in consumer prices.Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea are contributing to the price increases, as shipping companies are forced to detour and choose longer and more expensive routes, according to Landsberg.With <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-red-sea-attacks-panama-canal-shipping-2024-1">12% of global trade</a> passing through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea region is a critical trade route for consumer basics such as oil, cars, raw materials, and electronic components. As a result, these blockades are putting pressure on global supply chains and shipping costs.<div type="image" title="Shanghai Containerized Freight Index" height="663" width="1185" msid="115308890" hostid="261" sizebytes="33696"></div>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which tracks the current spot freight rates for containerized cargo departing from Shanghai, China, has remained elevated in 2024 after spiking earlier this year due to the continued blockade of the Red Sea by Houthi rebels."Shipping costs don't affect margins of companies as much as they're going to affect people's wallets, and that's not getting looked at," Landsberg said.Landsberg also points to the high prices of commodities and everyday necessities. Food prices and rents are still rising. In some East Coast metro areas, rents have risen over double digits since last year, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-october-2024/">Redfin</a>.Insurance prices are another strong indicator of inflation, whether it be for cars or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/states-most-at-risk-climate-change-rising-home-insurance-premiums-2024-10">homes</a>."Inflation in insurance, which everyone has to have all the time, is up double digits year-over-year," Landsberg said. "That affects people's wallets certainly more than just a printed CPI number."That's not to mention the potential of wage inflation. According to October's employment report, hourly wage growth was up 4% from this time last year. If Trump clamps down on immigration, then that number could go even higher as the supply of workers falls, pushing up the cost of labor.<h2 id="102f3015-2817-4d7e-8b5c-6ea2e030d247">Rebalance your portfolio</h2>Diversification is key in an inflationary environment by spreading out risk between sectors and asset classes, but you might be less diversified that you think, according to Landsberg.One mistake that Landsberg sees investors making is doubling down too much on a specific investment theme. Investors bullish on AI may have devised creative ways to play the AI trade outside of the technology sector, such as buying data center real estate investment trusts and utility stocks. This can give them a false sense of security in their portfolio, as it seems like they're exposed to multiple different sectors.However, if all of your investments across sectors are based on the AI theme, you won't experience much derisking.Landsberg points to the market selloff in August this year, where utilities and real estate indices fared better than technology, but individual real estate and utilities stocks with significant exposure to data centers didn't perform so well."I tell people now that we need to be diversified on themes, not just on sectors," Landsberg said. Some other secular growth themes that Landsberg believes will drive stocks include an aging population, cybersecurity, and alternative energy.In addition to making sure you're sufficiently diversified, there are some other steps that you can take to protect your portfolio from inflation. Landsberg identified a few inflation-benefitting trades such as energy, financials, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a>.Some funds that provide exposure to these sectors include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=1">XLE</a>), the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=1">IYF</a>), and the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/goldman-sachs-physical-gold-etf-us38150k1034?miRedirects=1">AAAU</a>)As the end of the year draws near, Landsberg recommends taking a look at your portfolio and rebalancing some positions. If you're overexposed to technology and AI, now is a good time to put money in more inflation-resistant areas.Ultimately, make sure you're investing in high-quality companies with a robust financial profile, he said."You need to have a portion of your portfolio that will do well if inflation starts to move back higher," Landsberg said. "You want companies with pricing power, companies with earnings growth."

Here's how to rebalance your portfolio as these economic indicators flash 'higher for longer' inflation and rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Using a 401(k) can boost investment portfolios by 23%, per Charles Schwab study.</li><li>The study compared 401(k) and taxable accounts over 20 years with an 8% annual return.</li></ul>Nothing is less exciting than thinking about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/taxes">taxes</a>, especially when the bill is coming due.And once you cross into the first quarter of the year, little can be done to reduce your tax liability, especially if you're a W2 employee.That's why thinking about deferral strategies is a great way to reduce how much you pay in taxes and increase your net worth in the long term. But to maximize your outcome, you have to start with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-401k">401(k)</a> or a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-ira">Traditional IRA</a>, according to a recent simulated study by Charles Schwab. The study showed how a 401(k) could increase an investment portfolio's value by 23%.The study, which was backtested over 20 years, compared two investors, one who used a taxable brokerage account versus one who used a 401(k). At an 8% annual return, it found that the latter finished with a value of $177,116 compared to the taxable account at $144,547. Based on this scenario, it assumed that someone allocating funds after tax in a 24% bracket would have a principal investment of $38,000 compared to $50,000. It also assumed taxable events on a turnover rate every five years and on 2% qualified income dividends and 6% long-term capital gains.<div type="image" title="Chart showing increased portfolio value with tax-deferred account." height="1064" width="1846" msid="114955475" hostid="261" sizebytes="34694"></div>In a scenario where an investor uses a taxable account but doesn't turnover or realize gains every five years, meaning taxable events are only placed on the 2% dividends, the outcome would lead to an ending value of $152,392.One caveat is that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-loopholes-to-reduce-or-avoid-capital-gains-taxes-2024-10">tax-deferred accounts</a> don't take into account every phase of where taxation can occur along the investment process, says Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning at Charles Schwab. The first point is when money is earned and before it's invested. The second is when income and dividend payments are earned along the way. The third point is once gains are realized. The first two taxation points are covered. The last phase isn't. For this process, other accounts, such as Roth IRAs for after-tax contributions allow gains to grow tax-free.Roth IRAs could come in handy in retirement during years when you have a higher withdrawal rate and, in turn, fund yourself in a higher tax bracket.<h2 id="bd273b03-5ffe-4b6d-8acc-d2373d85fc37">Other tax tips</h2>Another option people don't think about as much is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-use-health-savings-account-retirement-tool-investing-wealth-2024-10">health savings account</a>, which is unique, Williams noted. You have to qualify for those with an employer that provides it through a health insurance policy with a high deductible plan. But they are a nice additional tool that investors can use to contribute from their paycheck, he added.It's contributed pre-tax. And if the money isn't used for healthcare costs, it can be saved and invested in that health savings account and grow tax-free. It's tax deferral and tax avoidance, he noted."For a health savings account, that's powerful," Williams said. "We call that a triple tax exemption. You get no taxes when you put the money in and no taxes on any growth or capital gains in the fund. And then when you take it out, you don't have any taxes as well."Taxable brokerage or investment accounts are still useful because they allow you to withdraw money before retirement. This is especially great in the event you need to make a big purchase. But when using these accounts, investors should consider the assets they're buying. For example, exchange-traded funds have less tax drag than mutual funds that have higher turnover and, in turn, more taxable events, Williams noted."Any investment or mutual fund that generates a fair amount of investment income, whether it's interest or dividends, do not tend to be very tax efficient," Williams said.This also means considering how funds distribute gains, such as whether they are qualified or ordinary dividends. The latter is taxed at an investor's tax rate and depending on what margin that's in, it may not be as advantageous as a qualified dividend.

How tax-deferred investing can increase a portfolio's value by 23% and the account that provides a triple benefit

<ul class="summary-list"><li>As fears over economic volatility and deficits grow, investors and central banks are buying gold.</li><li>Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset among investors.</li></ul>Now is looking like a golden opportunity to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/how-to-invest-in-gold">invest in gold</a>.For decades, the yellow metal has been considered a safe-haven asset, serving as a hedge against high inflation and economic uncertainty due to its low correlation to stocks and bonds.And there's certainly no shortage of economic uncertainty right now. The US presidential election is right around the corner, inflation concerns remain elevated, geopolitical tensions are high, and the US national debt is reaching untenable levels.Investors and central banks alike have been snatching up gold. The asset's price hit another record high earlier this week at $2,739.40 per ounce after rising over 30% this year, and some analysts are setting a price target of $3,000.Investing in gold is slightly different from putting money into stocks or bonds. Below, two gold experts share four ways investors can add gold to their portfolios.<h2 id="f6498d65-9f43-415b-a374-53643e6db3e3">4 ways to invest in gold</h2>For starters, investors can purchase the metal directly.You can buy gold coins online. You can buy gold bars at Costco. Those strip mall stores with a big "We Buy Gold" sign? You can buy gold there, too.Buying the physical commodity is a tangible way to invest in gold, but it does have some drawbacks. Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp &amp; Company, points out that there are transaction costs when buying directly from a gold dealer. The investor also has to ensure the gold is certified regarding purity and weight. Buyers must also consider secure storage solutions and insurance for their physical assets.In general, physical gold is a less liquid way to own the asset and is quite costly. "Most of the time when people go and buy gold coins, they'll pay a big premium upfront, and they'll probably suffer a discount when they come to sell at the end," George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said.Investors can avoid the complications of investing in bars and coins by buying a gold ETF instead.Physical gold ETFs can be bought through a brokerage account and are directly backed by gold bullion held in bank vaults, meaning that investors don't have to worry about storage or liquidity issues. Examples include the iShares Gold Trust fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-gold-trust-us4642852044?miRedirects=1">IAU</a>) and the SPDR Gold Shares fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-us78463v1070?miRedirects=1">GLD</a>).Synthetic gold ETFs don't hold physical gold, investing instead in gold derivatives such as futures and options. These ETFs can be cheaper than physically backed ones since they don't need to store the metal, but they have counterparty risk, or the risk of loss from a contract participant not fulfilling their obligation. Examples include the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-gold-minishares-us98149e3036?miRedirects=1">GLDM</a>) and the ProShares Ultra Gold fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/proshares-ultra-gold-us74347w6012?miRedirects=2">UGL</a>).For investors who want to get as close to the real thing without buying bars, physical gold ETFs tend to track changes in the price of gold more accurately than synthetic ones, Muhlenkamp said.Mining companies are another option for more indirect exposure. These can vary wildly in risk, so Milling-Stanley advises that investors approach these stocks with discretion. The multi-billion-dollar market-cap mining companies offer the most liquidity and stable business models. Smaller mining companies, known as junior miners, are in the exploration phase of looking for mineral deposits and might not be generating revenues, Muhlenkamp said.Mining stocks are less directly correlated with the price of gold than ETFs and may lag trends in gold prices by several months, Muhlenkamp said.In Milling-Stanley's opinion, investing in mining stocks instead of directly investing in gold erodes some of the metal's portfolio protection, as mining stocks behave more in line with the general equity market.This area of investment is definitely higher in risk, but if enthusiasm for gold continues to surge, more speculative mining stocks will enjoy the biggest upside, according to Muhlenkamp.Examples of mining stocks include Agnico-Eagle Mines (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aem-stock">AEM</a>) and Newmont Mining Corp (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nem-stock">NEM</a>).Gold royalty and streaming companies are yet another way to add gold to a portfolio. These companies finance gold mines and receive a percentage of the gold produced.Royalties limit the holder's exposure to the risks associated with directly investing in mines, such as exploration, development, and regulatory compliance. Royalty and streaming companies are a good way to gain exposure to junior mines but still retain liquidity, especially for investors who don't have the ability or resources to conduct due diligence, Muhlenkamp said.Examples of gold royalty companies include Franco-Nevada (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/fnv-stock">FNV</a>) and Wheaton Precious Metals (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wpm-stock">WPM</a>).

4 ways to add gold to your portfolio as investors pile in and send prices to record highs  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>David Kostin is seeing similarities to the dot-com bubble as "superstar" firms boost the market.</li><li>Record-high market concentration will lead to a decade of weak returns, the strategist said.</li></ul>David Kostin is no stranger to the ups and downs of the stock market.The Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist has seen multiple economic boom-bust cycles during his more than 35 years on Wall Street. And right now, Kostin sees two striking similarities between today's market and the dot-com bubble — conditions that could lead to a decade of lackluster returns for the S&amp;P 500 just as they did after 2000, he told Business Insider in an exclusive interview.First, market concentration is at an all-time high, meaning that the performance of the S&amp;P 500 is disproportionately driven by just a few stocks. This is due to the rise of what Kostin calls "superstar" firms with economies of scale, such as the Big Tech companies whose valuations have spiked this year thanks to the development of AI.Today, the 10 largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 make up 36% of the entire index by market capitalization."We're at a level of concentration in the US market today that we haven't really seen since the tech bubble. It's even more concentrated than it was 20 years ago," Kostin said.In fact, the US equity market is at its highest concentration in 100 years.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs US equity market concentration" height="642" width="689" msid="114979384" hostid="261" sizebytes="44834"></div>Risks become less diversified, and volatility increases in a concentrated market, which is why Kostin is skeptical that the largest companies in the index will maintain their premium valuations going forward.Second, Kostin sees a large valuation gap between the top 10 stocks and the rest of the index.The largest 10 stocks in the index trade with a median price-to-earnings ratio of 31. Meanwhile, the other 490 stocks have a median P/E ratio of just 19.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs chart showing 10 largest stocks trading at 31x P/E compared to 19x for the rest of the market." height="730" width="882" msid="114979385" hostid="261" sizebytes="38416"></div>That means for the top stocks, the earnings yield — a metric measuring the expected return on investment, calculated by taking the inverse of the P/E ratio — is lower compared to the rest of the market. A stock with a P/E ratio of 31 has an earnings yield of 3.22%, meaning that every dollar invested in the stock would generate earnings per share of 3.2 cents. A stock with P/E ratio of 19 has an earnings yield of 5.26%, meaning that investors are receiving more earnings for every dollar they put in.This gap between the top S&amp;P 500 performers and the rest of the index hasn't occurred since the dot-com bubble."The valuation of the largest stocks in the market have a negative risk premium to bonds, and that has not happened for 20 years," Kostin added.That means the top 10 stocks in the index actually have a negative return in excess of the risk-free <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds">10-year Treasury</a> yields. The 10-year has a nominal yield of 4.28% compared to the top 10's 3.22%, which is approximately a 1% negative risk premium.<h2 id="3daaf9d0-47d8-48dc-b7f5-64d833e2a83c">The next decade</h2>The ultra-high concentrations in the market today happened over several years, so Kostin isn't expecting the market to broaden overnight. But the current disjunction simply isn't sustainable for the long term, he said. Higher concentration is typically associated with increased volatility in the near term and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-why-sp500-decade-weak-returns-goldman-jpmorgan-2024-11">lower returns</a> over long time horizons.That's why Kostin predicts that the S&amp;P 500 will generate a 3% annualized nominal total return through 2034 — well below the index's long-term average of 11%."The S&amp;P 500 has roughly a 72% probability of trailing bonds and a 33% likelihood of lagging inflation through 2034," Kostin and his team wrote in a recent note.<div type="image" title="Goldman Sachs is predicting a decade of low returns." height="442" width="701" msid="114979383" hostid="261" sizebytes="27106"></div>Superstar firms propelled the S&amp;P 500 to new highs in 2024, but maintaining that level of growth in the future will be difficult, especially when valuations are already so elevated, according to Kostin."The expectation of revenue growth for these companies is 20%, and the stocks trade at high multiples reflecting that growth rate. So the risk is ultimately, can the companies deliver on these extremely high levels?" Kostin said. "The evidence is strongly in support of the fact that growth rates for high revenue growth companies tend to fade," he added.Today's valuations price in double-digit growth, but that's not a realistic outcome, in Kostin's view. When sales and earnings growth for the biggest companies eventually cool, these valuations will come down, and the overall index will decelerate as well.Kostin pointed to companies like Intel, Microsoft, and Cisco, which saw incredible runups as investors priced in aggressive revenue expectations during the dot-com heyday. When these companies failed to meet these lofty expectations, valuation multiples compressed significantly.Although Kostin is predicting a decade of lower-than-average growth for the S&amp;P 500, he's still optimistic about the overall state of the economy as the unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.1% and the US consumer is strong.While the overall market is shaping up to see lower-than-expected returns for the next decade, that doesn't mean there aren't pockets of opportunity for investors to seek <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-beat-stock-market-returns-next-decade-goldman-sachs-2024-10">higher returns</a>. As the gap between the largest stocks and the rest of the market subsides going forward, the typical stock is positioned to perform better than the current market leaders.For that reason, Kostin is expecting the S&amp;P 500 equal-weight SPW index to outperform the market-cap-weighted S&amp;P 500.Kostin also identified mid-cap stocks as a big beneficiary of a broadening market. In his view, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-big-stocks-to-buy-unflashy-mid-caps-investing-parnassus-2024-10">mid-cap stocks</a> are much more reasonably valued than the overall S&amp;P 500 and have historically performed well in a rate-cutting environment, making them a compelling investment opportunity.

Goldman's top equity strategist tells BI 2 similarities between today's market and the dot-com bubble — and what it means for your portfolio

<ul class="summary-list"><li>As election day draws near, 400 Wall Street money managers identified their top concerns.</li><li>National debt, economic growth, and immigration reform are big issues for the next administration.</li></ul>With just a few weeks until Election Day, the presidential race is neck and neck between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.There's a lot at stake in November. Policy initiatives could have a significant impact on the economy, especially on issues concerning inflation, the housing market, employment, and international trade.The $1.3 trillion asset manager PGIM surveyed 400 institutional investors collectively overseeing $9 trillion in assets under management about the election. Most investors surveyed agreed that elections influenced how they allocated funds in their portfolios.Overall, 46% of the investors surveyed said that a Republican sweep across the White House and Congress would be the optimal outcome for the market. 29% of investors preferred split control of the White House and Congress. Investors can benefit from both parties: Republicans would likely pass investor-friendly tax and energy policy, while Democrats would pass more favorable US-China and trade policy.Here's what Wall Street is worried about this election cycle and how top money managers are preparing their portfolios for November.<h2 id="c2ba8bee-0e1c-46d1-9407-b7e2f9e02c0b">Wall Street's 3 biggest election concerns</h2>There was one clear standout issue: the national debt. 35% of institutional managers flagged the US national debt as the most important policy change they wanted to see.Kara Murphy, chief investment officer at Kestra Investment Management, says the deficit will continue to balloon from its current level of $35 trillion as higher Medicare, Social Security, and interest expenses stack up.However, neither candidate has put forward a concrete plan to address this issue."The candidates' relative silence on the deficit shows that it's an American problem – not just a party problem – and one so big and intractable that the next president isn't likely to be able to make much of a near-term impact," Murphy wrote in a note.Seventeen percent of investors responded that fueling economic growth was their biggest concern. There are both domestic and international challenges to the health of the economy, with institutional managers flagging issues such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-odds-rising-inflation-geopolitcal-concerns-surge-investing-strategy-volatility-2024-10">inflation</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-hedge-geopolitical-china-risk-retaining-upside-international-beijing-stimulus-2024-10">US-China relations</a>, and tariffs.It's likely that the next administration will implement new tariffs, regardless of which party takes the White House, according to PGIM.While Trump is well-known for his love of tariffs, Harris isn't exactly anti-tariff either. Murphy points out the Biden-Harris administration has kept many of the tariffs that Trump passed during his presidency, and even enacted additional tariffs.Increased trade tensions could have negative implications for both US and international markets in China, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Tariffs often have inflationary effects by slowing down trade and raising prices for consumers. The results of the presidential election will clarify how many new tariffs to expect.The third biggest concern was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-policy-boost-labor-market-national-debt-job-market-taxes-2024-10">immigration reform</a>, with 15% of investors placing it as their most important policy concern. Investment advisor Research Affiliates sees an urgent need for immigration reform as the US population growth rate continues to decline, harming the labor market. According to Research Affiliates, policies such as removing the cap on green cards for immigrants with higher education degrees in STEM fields could solve this issue.<h2 id="96c99c05-0f43-49e9-bcc5-3b7a39e8f265">Preparing your portfolio</h2>The tight race makes it unlikely for a single party to hold a sweeping majority in the House and Senate and pass drastic policy changes. However, the election winner still has implications for portfolios.One survey respondent, a portfolio manager for a US-based pension fund, said elections have "been a big factor" when it comes to allocating money. A Republican president is likely to benefit the oil and gas industries, while a Democrat win will boost healthcare, the portfolio manager said.An investment director for another pension fund shared the following investment outlook regarding the ongoing decline in globalization and trade relations: "Given reshoring, friend-shoring, [and] less reliance on the likes of China and other trading partners from past decades, we've felt even more confident in some of our exposures, particularly within the US. Basic industry, materials, very middle-market and lower focused, but dedicated US exposure such that if we really continue along this deglobalization path, and if there are further and future rifts, these are the areas that are going to benefit the most."As international supply chains experience disruption and technological competition with other countries increases, investors should put money into the companies and sectors benefiting from deglobalization while also adding safe-haven assets to their portfolios. The trend of reshoring will lead to increased domestic construction and jobs.PGIM recommends gold, Treasurys, and the US dollar as examples of stable, low-risk assets.

Here's what Wall Street money managers are doing to prepare their portfolios for their 3 biggest election concerns 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The national debt has blown past $35 trillion, and it's only going to go up under Trump or Harris.</li><li>Left unchecked, unsustainable deficits will slow GDP growth, decrease savings, and spur inflation.</li></ul>The US has a big, $35 trillion problem: the national debt.After a bout of pandemic stimulus, the <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S">national debt</a> ballooned from an already hefty 103% of GDP in 2019 to 120% currently.Left unchecked, the deficit will continue to creep higher and could drag GDP growth. Too much government spending reduces public and private savings levels, decreases labor productivity, and increases our dependence on foreign investment, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-policy-boost-labor-market-national-debt-job-market-taxes-2024-10">Chris Brightman</a>, CEO and CIO of the investment advisory Research Affiliates.<div type="image" title="Federal budget deficits crowd out national saving" height="648" width="1237" msid="114740934" hostid="261" sizebytes="20852"></div>If the US debt continues on this trajectory, Brightman predicts that the US could follow in the footsteps of European economies and see annual GDP growth decline to 1%.<div type="image" title="High spend and national debt associated with slow growth for various countries" height="580" width="923" msid="114740936" hostid="261" sizebytes="20990"></div>That's not to mention that welfare programs like Social Security will be on the chopping block. According to the Social Security Administration, Social Security benefits will be reduced by almost 25% starting in 2034 if nothing is done to address the national debt.<h2 id="ff5f9554-8d16-41da-bb6b-669693d7fe8e">No change in November</h2>Neither Harris nor Trump have a plan to address the deficit.In fact, both candidates are pushing policies that would increase deficit spending. If there's a blue or red sweep in November, government spending levels will be even higher.There are two main ways to reduce deficits, according to Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group. The first is to grow your way out. By growing the economy at a faster rate, the proportion of debt to GDP decreases."Nobody wants to really think about Plan B. Plan B is either raising taxes or cutting social programs and raising taxes when inflation is high," Yoshioka said.Both of those policies are incredibly unpopular, which is why the candidates haven't said much on the topic.However, growing GDP won't be sufficient to fix the situation, according to Brightman. "The math doesn't work," he said. If GDP continues to grow at its predicted pace of 2% per year, that's not even enough to cover the US government's interest payments on debt, much less reduce the principal amount. Interest costs are projected to reach 3.4% of GDP by 2025, and 4.1% by 2034.<h2 id="c865dcdc-9063-4908-8e2c-e1b6f1e4bae8">How to invest</h2>Until the government takes steps to get the deficit under control, there are a few things investors can do to protect their holdings.Continued high national deficits could put the credibility of US sovereign debt into question, leading to a depreciating dollar and increased inflation.The US government might try to use inflation to chip away at the real value of the debt by pursuing expansionary monetary policies such as quantitative easing, according to Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp &amp; Company. If the US dollar were to decrease in value, the government could repay the debt more cheaply than when it was first incurred."As the US government continues to get deeper in debt, how are they going to work their way out of that?" Muhlenkamp said. "One of the potential outcomes ends up being a devaluation, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a> is a nice hedge against that.""Real" assets, or investments backed by tangible resources, are generally a good hedge in a high-debt environment, according to JPMorgan. These investments have direct intrinsic value and tend to store long-term value effectively. Examples include commodities, real estate, and infrastructure. Muhlenkamp likes the energy sector in particular. JPMorgan also recommends increasing exposure to non-US dollar-denominated assets.Avoid long-term Treasurys, Muhlenkamp added."Where you definitely don't want to be is in long-term government debt," he said. "[The government] will inflate away the value of the debt if they can get away with it."Muhlenkamp is predicting that the next decade will see <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">increased inflation</a>, which will eat away at bond yields.Yoshioka points out that there's also the risk of a failed treasury auction, which is when the Treasury Department doesn't receive enough bids to take on the debt it's trying to sell. If this were to happen, the Federal Reserve would need to step in and purchase the unwanted bonds by printing money, creating more inflation.Some funds that offer exposure to real assets include the iShares US Energy ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-energy-etf-us4642877967?miRedirects=1">IYE</a>), the Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/fidelity-msci-real-estate-index-etf-us3160928574?miRedirects=1">FREL</a>), and the iShares Gold Trust (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-gold-trust-us4642852044?miRedirects=1">IAU</a>).

The national debt crisis is set to worsen no matter who wins the election — here's what you can do to protect your portfolio 

<keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> made a notable return to the <keyword id="19932512" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-stock-market" source="keywords" topicspecial.url="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks">Indian stock market</keyword> this week (August 19-23). The foreign investors made a net purchase of <keyword id="19925781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="keywords">equities</keyword> amounting to Rs 4,897.16 crore, according to data from the <keyword id="20070086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Securities-Depository-Limited" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="National Securities Depository Limited" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="National Securities Depository Limited">National Securities Depository Limited</keyword> (<keyword id="20519694" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSDL" source="keywords">NSDL</keyword>). This marks a significant shift from the previous week (August 12-17), when <keyword id="20015748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-investors" source="keywords">foreign portfolio investors</keyword> were net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 7,769.73 crore. Despite this week's positive inflow, the overall net investment by foreign investors in August remains negative. So far this month, foreign investors have sold equities worth Rs 16,305 crore in the Indian market. This trend highlights the volatility in foreign investment patterns during the month. Interestingly, while foreign investors were net sellers in August, <keyword id="20148367" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-investors" source="keywords">domestic investors</keyword> played a crucial role in supporting the Indian stock market. According to official data from the National Stock Exchange (<keyword id="20004725" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE" source="keywords" topicspecial.url="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/marketstats/pid-40,exchange-nse,sortby-value,sortorder-desc.cms">NSE</keyword>), domestic investors have consistently bought into Indian stocks, purchasing equities worth Rs 47,080.38 crore in August. This strong domestic participation has provided stability to the market amid the fluctuating foreign investment trends. "It is essential for policymakers to continue fostering an environment that encourages domestic investment while ensuring that foreign investors remain an integral part of the market. Balancing the interests of both domestic and foreign investors will be key to sustaining growth and stability in the Indian stock market. From 6.6 % in December 2012, India's share in the MSCI EM Index has gone up to 20 % plus in August 2024" said Ajay Bagga, Banking and Market Expert. Earlier in July, net foreign investments in the Indian stock market reached Rs 32,365 crore as the foreign investors were net buyers, as per data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). This marked a continuation of strong foreign interest following June, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (<keyword id="19930635" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FPIs" source="keywords">FPIs</keyword>) purchased Indian stocks worth Rs 26,565 crore on a cumulative basis. FPIs, which involve investors acquiring foreign financial assets, play a significant role in influencing market dynamics by channeling substantial funds into the Indian equity market.

Foreign investors return to Indian stocks with net investment of Rs 4,897 crore this week

4 stocks set to benefit from China's stimulus measures while also hedging geopolitical risk: $21 billion firm's portfolio manager

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Famed "Big Short" investor Michael Burry is benefiting from the recent surge in Chinese stocks.</li><li>Burry's Scion Asset Management has nearly half of its portfolio invested in Chinese tech giants like Alibaba.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">surge in Chinese stocks this week</a> should be music to the ears of hedge fund manager Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame.Burry began aggressively buying Chinese stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022, and it seems to finally be paying off.According to 13F filings, Burry's Scion Asset Management, which manages about $200 million, has about half of its portfolio invested in Chinese tech giants.Burry counts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/baba-stock">Alibaba</a> at his largest position at 21% of the portfolio, and he was still buying the stock as recently as the second quarter, boosting his stake by 24%.Burry also has 12% of his portfolio invested in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bidu-stock">Baidu,</a> and another 12% of his portfolio invested in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jd-stock">JD.com.</a> Altogether, Burry had about 46% of his portfolio invested in the three Chinese stock as of June 30.All three stocks have surged this week after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">China got serious about announcing stimulus plans</a> to revitalize its struggling economy.The People's Bank of China announce key interest rate cuts, lowered bank reserve requirements to stimulate lending, and said it plans liquidity support for the stock market.The country also encouraged its companies to start buying back stock.All of these measures and dovish speak from policymakers led to a massive surge in China's stock market this week.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-msci-china-etf-us46429b6719?miRedirects=1">iShares MSCI China ETF</a> is up 18% so far this week. Meanwhile, shares of Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com are up 19%, 18%, and 32% so far this week, respectively.According to data from HedgeFollow, which tracks and compiles data from 13F filings, the recent gains in China's stock market should mean Burry too is seeing some sizable gains in his portfolio, with Alibaba leading the charge.HedgeFollow estimates that Burry has an average cost per share of $78.83 for his Alibaba stake. Shares of Alibaba hit $105.25 in Thursday afternoon trades, representing an estimated gain of 34%.This assumes that Burry has not sold any shares since Scion's last 13F filing, which offers data as of June 30.Burry isn't the only hedge fund manager making money off of the recent surge in China's stock market.Billionaire investor David Tepper said on Thursday that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-tepper-buys-chinese-stocks-country-launches-fiscal-stimulus-bazooka-2024-9">it's a buy "everything" moment for Chinese stocks.</a>Like Burry, Tepper count Alibaba as his hedge fund's largest position, making up about 12% of his $6.2 billion Appaloosa fund. Tepper believes there's more upside to be had in Chinese stocks due to their depressed valuations."Even with the recent moves they're like on a flat-line low compared to where they have been in the past. And you're sitting there with single multiple PEs, with double-digit growth rates for the big stocks that trade over here," Tepper <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-tepper-buys-chinese-stocks-country-launches-fiscal-stimulus-bazooka-2024-9">said in an interview with CNBC</a> on Thursday.

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry bet half of his portfolio on Chinese stocks. It's finally starting to pay off.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Some economists and strategists are increasingly confident that the US economy will avoid recession.</li><li>However, Zehrid Osmani is raising his recession odds over the threat of rising inflation.</li></ul>After a blowout <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/strong-september-jobs-employment-exceed-expectations-soft-landing-inflation-investing-2024-10">September jobs report</a>, market confidence in the US economy heightened. Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius lowered his recession odds from 20% to 15%, for example, citing low unemployment and strong GDP growth.Not everyone agrees with the top investment bank and market consensus, though.Zehrid Osmani, a portfolio manager at the $21 billion investment manager Martin Currie, has actually increased his recession odds. Currie now sees the likelihood of a downturn at 35%-40%, up from 20%-25%.Although a recession isn't Osmani's base scenario, his biggest concerns are persistent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-powell-mistake-1970s-runaway-stagflation-unemployment-interest-rates-2024-10">inflation</a> and increasing geopolitical tensions.First, inflation hasn't fully cooled, which could hamper the schedule of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.Indeed, the latest CPI report hints that the inflation battle hasn't been decisively won, with prices rising 2.4% in the last 12 months through September, slightly above the 2.3% that economists were predicting.Osmani is keeping his eye out for one specific area: wage inflation."The vast majority of inflation comes from wage inflation in the medium term, and if you look at wage inflation, it remains somewhat elevated," Osmani said.The inflation problem isn't just confined to the US, either. It's an issue that has ramifications for the global economy. "You're looking at 4% to 5% inflation both in Europe and the US, closer to 6% in the UK," Osmani said.Geopolitical conflict is contributing to elevated inflation as well. The Russia-Ukraine war has complicated global supply chains, impacting food and energy prices. The escalating Israel-Hamas conflict has led to higher ocean shipping costs.Technology — specifically AI development — is also fueling geopolitical tensions. Osmani believes AI will increasingly become critical to corporate competitiveness, resulting in increased technological conflict. And with AI shaping up to be a trillion-dollar industry in the next decade, the stakes are high.US-China tensions are escalating over Taiwan, home to the world's largest semiconductor foundry, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Taiwan produces over 90% of the world's most cutting-edge semiconductors, making it an important interest for any country or company looking to stay ahead in the AI race.In this environment, heightened uncertainty caused by these geopolitical tensions will continue to send shock waves through the market, according to Osmani. He expects the market to remain volatile for the near future.Lastly, leading indicators, especially manufacturing indicators, have been lukewarm, Osmani said.Manufacturing in the US has been on a steady decline. The sector contracted in September for the sixth month in a row, with an ISM manufacturing index reading of 47.2. A value below 50 indicates a pullback in manufacturing activity.With the Manufacturing ISM hovering at or below 50 for almost the last two years, Osmani sees a heightened risk for recession.<h2 id="55dd934c-9292-431d-8097-3486adb7388b">Where to invest</h2>Investors shouldn't panic at the possibility of a recession, according to Osmani."If there were to be a recession, we think it would be shallow and short-lived," Osmani said. "If you look at the balance sheets of the private sector, both corporates and households, they remain very solid."The companies best-equipped to deal with this period of economic uncertainty are ones with resilient earnings growth, solid balance sheets, and exposure to long-term structural growth themes in the areas of energy transition, aging population, and AI, according to Osmani.Osmani sees what he calls "seismic thematic shifts" in these areas. With over 16% of the world population reaching 65 or older by 2050, an aging population will drive demand for more robust healthcare infrastructure. Semiconductors powering the AI revolution will remain critical as the technology advances, and the industry has successfully monetized upon surging AI demand thus far. And Osmani sees potential for parts of the market driving the energy transition, such as alternative energy and electric vehicles.His top picks include Nvidia (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">NVDA</a>), Microsoft (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">MSFT</a>), chemical company Linde plc (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/lin-stock">LIN</a>), and industrial manufacturing company Atlas Copco (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/atlcy-stock">ATLKY</a>). They are all constituents of the Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust.

A portfolio manager at a $21 billion firm warns the odds of a recession have risen to 40% from 20% as inflation and geopolitical concerns surge — and shares where he's investing

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