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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The final polls of the 2024 presidential election season are out.</li><li>They show that neither Harris nor Trump have broken out in the swing states.</li></ul>This <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">year's electoral map</a> has long been set.Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will likely determine whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins. The poll numbers in these seven states have been close for months. And that hasn't changed with 24 hours to go.The final set of New York Times/Siena College surveys of each state showed Harris narrowly leading among likely voters in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Harris and Trump are tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Trump holds a four-point lead over Harris.Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina are all <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">Sun Belt states</a> where the economy has loomed especially large. When President Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html#commentsContainer">he had fallen behind Trump</a> in Georgia and Nevada, but Harris quickly made these states competitive.In Georgia, Harris leads 48% to 47%, according to the Times poll. She has slightly larger advantages in North Carolina (48% to 46%) and Nevada (49% to 46%).Black voters will be key in Georgia and North Carolina, where they make up significant shares of the electorate. Biden in 2020 won Georgia by a razor-thin margin, while Trump narrowly won North Carolina that year.In Georgia, more than 4 million voters cast early ballots, and just over a million of those voters were Black, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State's office. And in North Carolina — where Democrats have not won on the presidential level since Barack Obama's 2008 win — there's been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/us/charlotte-nc-mecklenburg-county-harris.html">a concerted effort</a> to boost turnout in the party's strongholds in the Charlotte and Raleigh areas.Latino voters will be critical in Nevada, where issues like housing affordability and inflation have driven the political conversation and given Trump hope that he can flip the state, which hasn't backed a Republican presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.Among the northern "Blue Wall" states, which are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">especially critical for Harris</a>, there is still no clear leader in the battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.In Wisconsin, Harris leads 49% to 47%, while Michigan (47% to 47%) and Pennsylvania (48% to 48%) were both draws in the Times poll. Harris has campaigned to secure support from working-class, minority, and union voters in these areas. Trump has sought to move some of these voters into his column, aware that any small shift in their support could prove decisive in an already close race.Biden won all <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-sweeps-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-battleground-states-election-2020-11">three Blue Wall battlegrounds</a> in 2020.Some Democrats are worried that Trump could once again make inroads in the Midwest like he did in 2016, but the new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-iowa-polling-lead-swing-states-2024-11">Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll</a> showed Harris with a three-point edge in GOP-leaning Iowa, which could portend the vice president performing strongly in the Blue Wall.Meanwhile, in Arizona, where Latino voters will once again be key, the former president's four-point edge is his largest of the seven states polled by the Times.Arizonans have consistently cited the economy and immigration as two of their leading issues — which poll stronger for Trump — but democracy concerns and reproductive rights are also top issues for voters. And the latter two subjects are highly beneficial for Harris.There's also a generational gap in Arizona that, at the moment, is helping Trump in a state that Biden narrowly won in 2020.In the Times/Siena poll of likely Arizona voters, Harris led among voters aged 18 to 29 (55% to 41%) and 30 to 44 (50% to 44%), but Trump held advantages with voters aged 45 to 64 (53% to 42%) and 65 and older (51% to 43%).The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">gender gap</a> in the swing states, meanwhile, mirrors the deep gulf in national polling. Harris is winning female voters by 16 points (57% to 41%), according to the final NBC News poll. Trump had an 18-point lead with male voters (58% to 40%).And with the candidates tied in the final NBC poll of registered voters (49% to 49%), it could ultimately come down to who votes in larger numbers, women or men.In early voting in swing states so far, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/01/politics/trump-women-voters-gender-gap-harris/index.html">women outvoted men</a>, but it remains unclear if that trend will extend to Election Day.

Final polls show Harris and Trump headed for a photo finish

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new poll showed Kamala Harris had a surprise 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa.</li><li>Betting odds on Robinhood and Kalshi tightened following the news.</li></ul>Vice President Kamala Harris' betting odds jumped overnight after a new poll showed she held a surprise lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">a state he won easily</a> in both 2016 and 2020.A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/">Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll</a> by Selzer &amp; Co. published on Saturday showed Harris with a three-point lead in the state.The results were reflected in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-women-gender-gap-election-2024-10">tightening odds</a> in betting markets on Sunday morning.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kalshi.com/">On Kalshi</a>, the popular US-based prediction platform, Harris' odds of winning the election have soared from 35% on October 29 to 50% at the time of writing.Harris' odds of winning the popular vote also increased on Kalshi, rising from a low of about 61% on October 29 to 77% at the time of writing.The electronic trading platform Robinhood also showed narrowing odds ahead of Tuesday's election.Trump held a 66% to 39% lead on October 29, but at the time of writing, that lead had narrowed to 52% to 51%.The Iowa poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31, with a 3.4-point margin of error.The results marked a sharp swing from September when the same poll showed Trump ahead by four points.Betting markets have capitalized on this year's presidential election. Kalshi attracted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">more than $100 million</a> in bets on who will win in October alone.Meanwhile, Polymarket, another prediction market — not available to US citizens — saw betting volume for the US election reach more than $2 billion on its platform last month, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theblock.co/post/321725/polymarket-betting-volume-for-us-presidential-election-winner-crosses-2-billion">The Block</a> reported.

Election betting odds tighten as polls show Harris has momentum

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polling suggests the economy is important to voters in this year's presidential election.</li><li>The economy is doing well across a wide variety of metrics.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">Election</a> Day is less than two weeks away, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">the economy</a> is top of mind for many Americans.Twenty-eight percent of likely voters in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html">poll from The New York Times/Siena College</a> from September 29 to October 6 said the economy was the "most important" issue for their vote, which was the highest share among all issues. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/">Pew Research Center</a> survey from August 26 to September 2 found that among registered voters, 68% of Kamala Harris supporters and 93% of Donald Trump supporters said the economy is "very important" to their vote.Additionally, an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnorc.org/projects/registered-voters-are-split-on-trusting-harris-or-trump-to-handle-economic-issues/">Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research</a> poll conducted in October found registered voters were nearly split on who they thought would do a better job handling different areas of the economy, such as jobs and unemployment.The good news is that the economy is broadly doing pretty well these days."We've seen new highs for the stock market's major averages, falling inflation, the Federal Reserve shifting into easing mode and a job market close to the level associated with full employment," Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at the financial services company Bankrate, said in a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/2024-election-and-the-economy-survey/?tpt=a#top-economic-issue">commentary</a>.While data suggests the US economy is robust, Americans may not agree. The index of <a target="_blank" href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/">current economic conditions</a> from the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers has stayed stubbornly low throughout the pandemic recovery.Kurt Reiman, cohead of ElectionWatch at UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider that he doesn't think people feel "euphoric" about the economy. "Voters are reminded daily of the high price of goods and services — whether they're renewing their car or home insurance, or they're going to the grocery store," Reiman said.They're not completely off base. There are a few less-rosy data points out there, like rising long-term unemployment and a historically high level of federal debt.As people get ready to head to polling locations or vote by mail, here's how the US economy has been looking.<h2 id="b1568735-2b7f-4c59-a18d-2eedb9252f8b">The unemployment rate has been under 5% since September 2021</h2>After it rose to around 15% during the height of the early pandemic in April 2020, the unemployment rate has fallen to historically low rates. Even though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% this past July — the highest rate since October 2021 — it has dropped since.While unemployment remains low, the average time unemployed workers were out of a job increased to 22.6 weeks in September. So, those out of work are spending more time looking for their next job.<h2 id="a377c75d-6f92-4f82-9cde-9b55e3445625">Job gains have cooled but remain strong</h2>The economy keeps adding jobs, but the labor market has slowed from its red-hot pandemic recovery.The cooler-but-strong job growth is one indication that the US has continued to avoid a recession — the last one being in 2020.<h2 id="3c79dc9c-b337-418f-8654-44a48ca9035f">There aren't as many job openings per unemployed person as a few years ago</h2>One key measure of the labor market has been turning against job seekers. The number of job openings per unemployed person rose to a record-high ratio in 2022 during the Great Resignation but has declined to 1.1 openings per unemployed person in August and looks more like pre-pandemic levels.It's not impossible to find a job, though; Hamrick said there is "still a reasonable chance that someone who's going to be a job seeker will have a measure of success" depending on their sector and location.<h2 id="b156886f-3057-4ae3-81ab-96249d28aa4c">The inflation rate has slowed dramatically</h2>Inflation has been mostly slowing down after spiking in 2021 and 2022 based on year-over-year increases in the consumer price index.While inflation has slowed, Hamrick said consumers feel constrained by still-high prices. However, Hamrick said, "Americans will continue to claw back some" lost buying power as long as inflation continues to settle down while the job market holds up.Wages have been catching up, and real wages, which are adjusted for inflation, grew 1.5% in September from a year ago.The Federal Reserve has targeted a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-data-points-to-soft-landing-no-recession-2024-9">soft landing</a> where inflation comes down without mass layoffs. So far, that seems to be happening. Additionally, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-decision-this-week-federal-reserve-powell-inflation-2024-9">Fed cut interest rates in September</a> — the first cut in four years. There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">high chance</a> it will decide to do a smaller cut in November, depending on how the data looks and other factors.<h2 id="3d0817c5-b03c-4e0a-a06d-bb0b9cf4edbf">Real disposable personal income per capita has been looking healthy</h2>Real disposable personal income per capita — a widely used measure of the money people have to spend or save — spiked in the early pandemic due to stimulus checks in 2020 and 2021 and the expanded child tax credits for the 2021 tax year.While real disposable personal income per capita cooled off as inflation accelerated in 2022, it has been gradually rising — and is above where it was before the pandemic and close to the pre-pandemic growth trend.<h2 id="28d1bb36-d16a-4262-837c-72d756c3510e">The S&amp;P 500 in 2024 has hit several all-time highs</h2>During 2024, the S&amp;P 500 has been historically high multiple times. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-6-charts-suggest-investors-should-proceed-with-caution-as-s-p-500-hits-47th-record-high-of-2024-197f7c0a">MarketWatch</a> reported it has hit 47 record highs this year. This index of large publicly traded US companies reflects corporate America doing quite well, and the rising figures may be good for people's retirement savings portfolios.Reiman chalks it up to strong consumer spending, slowing inflation, and lower interest rates leading to higher corporate profits and valuations.<h2 id="940327d3-930a-4b04-ae6e-e7a1a18f7e9a">Confidence among home builders is still low compared to recent years</h2>While the labor market is showing a lot of strength, the housing market is one area of the economy where there are some concerns. More single-family builders are feeling better about housing than a few months ago but are falling short of the confidence seen a couple of years ago. That's based on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which tracks the health of the single-family housing market.The index, based on what single-family builders surveyed reported, was a not-too-confident reading of 43 out of 100 in October.<h2 id="5596c1a8-aaad-4fe9-8a2a-12db5abc4c25">Federal public debt as a share of GDP is elevated</h2>Reiman said the Biden administration will be "handing off an economy with higher levels of debt than when taking office." Federal debt is high compared to GDP, even looking beyond the spike of the debt as a share of GDP during the pandemic.While federal debt as a share of GDP was slightly above 100% before the pandemic, recent figures are much higher than in the past. Federal debt was 120% of GDP in the second quarter of this year. In the long run, a high debt-to-GDP ratio may lead to expensive interest costs and future tax hikes or spending cuts.

The economy is a priority for Americans as they head to the polls. Here's what's really going on behind the numbers.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets swung in favor of Trump in the weeks before his victory, as polls showed a virtual tie.</li><li>Proponents point to a number of factors that make betting markets more accurate.</li></ul>In the weeks before Donald Trump's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">victory</a>, polling showed the former president locked in a dead heat with Vice President Kamala Harris.Prediction markets, though, told a different story.Trump started showing a solid lead on betting markets like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi in mid-October, and those odds mostly rose in the weeks before Election Day.The odds slightly narrowed in the few days before, but by the time the first major polls closed at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday evening, the markets showed around 60% odds for Trump.They reacted quickly amid a slew of outcomes from individual states, and by 1:30 AM on Wednesday, they predicted over 98% chances of a Trump win, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://electionbettingodds.com/">Election Betting Odds</a> tool.That was still hours before major news outlets called the electionPrediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-harris-prediction-markets-polls-presidential-election-polymarket-024-8">more accurate</a> than traditional polling. This week was the biggest demonstration to back up that claim."They've always been accurate. They just got a lot more interest now," Tarek Mansour, cofounder of prediction market Kalshi, told Business Insider. Kalshi is the only betting site for US users to wager on political races.Kalshi saw a huge influx of traffic the night of the election, with 123 million site views in the 24 hours before the race was officially called, he said.Those numbers point to a growing sense of trust in betting markets among voters, which will help platforms like Kalshi gain mainstream prominence, Mansour says."I don't think we're going back. I think this is the dawn of a new era for prediction markets, and prediction markets are <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/betting-us-election-cftc-kalshi-legal-battle-prediction-market-2024-10">here to stay</a>," Mansour said. "People are not going to go back to mainstream news and polls after this. Prediction markets are basically the ultimate thing that people are going to look at now," he added.<h2 id="aeac655c-0116-44aa-bc09-718b02b02101">Why betting markets got it right</h2>Betting experts say prediction markets have a few key advantages over polls, and much of it comes down to the motivation behind the participants: rather than asking who a voter wants to win, prediction markets ask who they think will win.Putting money on the line—potentially tens of millions in the case of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-trump-vs-harris-betting-odds-polls-election-2024-10">one French trader</a>—means participants have to be very confident in their prediction. That means those with high conviction and potentially better information are especially drawn to the sites.If a trader is willing to put so much money down, they must have a particularly high conviction in their bet and could be based on information that isn't publicly available, or simply on keen observer of the latest development, Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane told BI.Experts also point to prediction markets' ability to respond to new developments in real time, which proved especially powerful this year given a number of extremely influential events, according to Northwestern University's Thomas Miller.Miller, who runs election forecasting model <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://virtualtout.com/news-log/2024-11-05/">The Virtual Tout</a>, points to particularly big swings after President Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, plus two assassination attempts against Trump.He says markets responded immediately while polls lagged."Prediction markets can be volatile. They can be responsive to current and campaign events. They do move, and they can move significantly. This election is an extreme case of that," Miller said.Others also point to the huge volumes traded on this election cycle, and say that prediction markets will only become more accurate with more volume.Crane says that if the CFTC's strict regulations on betting markets allow for more US participation, that will increase volume, making it less likely that any attempts at market manipulation will actually work."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets," Crane told BI in a previous interview.Prediction market proponents say the failure of polling will likely pressure pollsters to get better in coming election cycles."Prediction markets are basically the ultimate thing that people are going to look at now," Mansour said, adding, "It's going to put pressure on the polls. Polls have to get better, otherwise people are not going to trust them," Mansour said.If they don't improve, the betting markets could replace them entirely, he predicted.Others, though, are skeptical even after the latest election.Davide Accomazzo, a finance professor at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School, says the election's final result remained within the margins of error of traditional polls, showing they weren't necessarily inaccurate but in need of refining."The ultimate result wasn't outside the statistical margin of error that the polls have indicated. What is interesting, however, is that every single margin of error went in favor of Trump. So that obviously tells you that there was something fundamentally wrong, given the construction of these traditional polls," he said, adding that could underscore a mistake in underestimating a non-traditional candidate.

Betting markets nailed Trump's decisive win — and it's a good reminder they can be more accurate than polls

<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in the state.</li><li>It's a significant shift in a conservative-leaning state that Trump won by eight points in 2020.</li></ul>A new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll</a> published on Saturday showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by three points in Iowa, a massive development in a state once <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">seen as a lock</a> for the former president.The Iowa poll — which is viewed as the gold standard of polling in the state and was conducted by the firm Selzer &amp; Co. — showed Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.Political experts told Business Insider that the Iowa poll is significant for the Harris campaign given that the demographic makeup of Iowa — rural, older, and largely white voters — is similar to some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">key swing states</a>."What makes Iowa a good conduit for states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, is because they're demographically very similar," John Conway, director of strategy for Republicans Voters Against Trump, said. He said all those states have a large share of white voters.Christian Grose, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California, also said the results bode well for Harris in other states. "This is probably good news for Harris in Wisconsin, Michigan, and elsewhere. If Harris is competitive in Iowa, combined with recent polling showing Trump with single-digit leads in Kansas and other red places, it bodes well for Harris."He added: "It's one poll, so normally, I wouldn't read too much into one poll, but this is a pollster who's pretty good and has been working in Iowa for a long time."The pollster — J. Ann Selzer — has had particular success predicting the Iowa caucuses, he added.Selzer founded Selzer &amp; Co. in 1996. She <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/">conducts polling</a> for private companies and public opinion surveys but Iowa politics remains her greatest strength, FiveThirtyEight reported in 2016.A representative for Selzer &amp; Co. did not respond to a request for comment.Patricia Crouse, adjunct professor of political science at the University of New Haven, said the Iowa poll is just one data point that shouldn't be used to predict the actual outcome, but that it's still a significant development for Harris considering Trump won the Hawkeye State in 2020 by eight points over now-President Joe Biden."I think we have to be very, very careful about how we're using polls in terms of predicting the outcome of this election, but I do think that even if it's just a moment in time — this poll that was just done — I still think it's significant that Harris is leading," she said. "Even if they were tied in Iowa, I think that's significant."<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump in Iowa." height="2636" width="3955" msid="114918467" hostid="261" sizebytes="223688"></div>Crouse said that Iowa's demographic is predominantly white and consists of an older generation of voters who typically skew Republican. That Harris might be gaining in a state like Iowa may signal that a different set of voters, including women and younger voters, are being underrepresented in polling."If Iowa flips to Harris, then it's possible that some of these swing states are being underestimated in their polls in terms of favorability for her," she said.<h2 id="ed1b80b8-1545-4cb3-b5aa-ee6ed22c4c35">Iowa's political shift has been dramatic</h2>A poll showing a Democratic presidential nominee with a lead in Iowa would not have caused such a stir in the past, given its longtime political competitiveness.In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state by less than a point over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Bush flipped the state to the GOP in his 2004 presidential reelection bid, winning it by a razor-thin 0.67% margin.Iowa later played a key role in the launch of Barack Obama's presidency. In 2008, Obama won the state's Democratic caucus, which propelled his candidacy through the primary race. He went on to win the state easily that year and in his 2012 reelection bid.But the state has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-democrats-struggling-ascendant-gop-2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-2023-8">tilted toward the GOP</a> in recent years.Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Republican Joni Ernst was first elected to the US Senate in 2014 and continues to hold her seat. And the state legislature is dominated by conservative Republicans.But some cracks are starting to show in the GOP's armor.The Republican-controlled legislature passed a six-week abortion ban that went into effect in July and has proven to be unpopular with Iowans, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/22/most-iowans-support-legal-abortion-oppose-iowas-six-week-ban-new-iowa-poll-shows-fetal-heartbeat-law/75180451007/">according to polling</a> conducted by Selzer &amp; Co. in September.In the survey, 59% of Iowa adults opposed the new abortion law, while only 37% of Iowa adults approved of it. And notably, 69% of female respondents in the Selzer poll opposed the law, while only 27% of Iowa women backed the new restrictions.The law also appears to have taken a toll on the approval ratings of Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.In the Selzer poll taken in September, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/24/rob-sand-tops-kim-reynolds-brenna-bird-iowa-elected-officials-governors-support-slips-lowest/75196313007/">Reynolds' job approval rating</a> sat at 45%, while 50% of Iowans disapproved of her performance. Since becoming governor in 2017, Reynolds has generally been one of the state's most popular politicians, which makes her most recent approval rating all the more striking.

Kamala Harris' new lead in top Iowa poll could bode well for her in some key swing states

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kamala Harris is surging ahead of Trump in national and swing state polls.</li><li>Harris's campaign has energized voters, reversing Biden's previous deficits in key states.</li></ul>A slew of new voter polls are revealing one key trend: the race for the White House has shifted in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris'</a> favor.Since <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-endorses-kamala-harris-after-dropping-out-2024-7">Harris replaced President Joe Biden</a> at the top of the Democratic ticket less than four weeks ago, Harris's campaign has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-memes-media-strategy-gen-z-unburdened-coconut-2024-7">injected a surge of youthful energy and excitement</a> into weary voters and a once-struggling Democratic party. And that momentum has helped Harris rise ahead of Trump in national polls and even inch ahead of Trump in crucial swing states.In almost all battleground states, Harris has gained a narrow lead over Trump, a new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/fight-redefine-2024-race-president">poll from the Cook Political Report Swing State Project</a> found. The poll, released Wednesday, shows Harris with an overall 2-point lead over Trump in a horserace including third party candidates across the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And in a head-to-head matchup across those states, Harris had an overall 1-point lead over her Republican opponent.While that lead is still slim, it shows how much ground Harris has gained since Biden was in her place. In May, the same survey found that Trump had an overall swing state lead of 5 points over Biden in a horserace matchup, and in a head-to-head matchup, an overall lead of 3 points.In each battleground state, according to the Cook survey, Harris has between a 2-point and 5-point lead over Trump in a horserace matchup, with Georgia being the only state where the two are tied. In May, Trump was leading across the board, except in Wisconsin where he was tied with Biden.Polling across the board has shown movement toward Harris.The latest <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/harris-trump-battleground-polls.html">New York Times/Siena College </a>polls also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-leads-trump-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-swing-state-polls-2024-8">show Harris leading the former president</a> by a four-point margin in the critical swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. When Biden was in her place, an earlier version of the poll found he only had a small lead in Wisconsin and trailed behind Trump in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.And even in Florida — which was once considered a swing state but has become more solidly red in recent years — Harris has narrowed Trump's lead. In a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Mainstreet_FL_August_2024_Public.pdf">Florida Atlantic University poll</a> released Wednesday, Trump has a 3-point edge over Harris among likely Florida voters, which is half the lead he had over Biden when the poll was conducted in June.And it's not just swing state polls where Harris is gaining ground.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris waves to supporters at a campaign rally in Las Vegas." height="579" width="1024" msid="112550520" hostid="261" sizebytes="134662"></div>In an average of 14 national polls, Harris has edged ahead of Trump by 2.7 points, according to an analysis by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/">FiveThirtyEight</a>. It's a big jump from the days after Biden exited the race, when Harris only had a 0.8-point average national lead over Trump, FiveThirtyEight found.In one national poll, conducted by <a target="_blank" href="https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-presidential-contest-august-2024">NPR/PBS News/Marist poll</a> and released last week, Harris crept up to a 3-point advantage over Trump in both a horserace and head-to-head matchup. That's four points up for Harris since the same poll was conducted shortly after she replaced Biden in the race, when Trump had a one-point advantage over her.And it's Black voters, white women with college degrees, and independent women voters who are propelling Harris ahead, the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found. Her favor with these groups has increased 20 to 30 points since she first took over the Democratic ticket, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/08/06/g-s1-15701/election-poll-harris-trump">NPR reported</a>.Across the board, Harris is doing better than Biden was before he dropped out of the race. In an average of national state-level polling, Harris is doing 7.2 points better when matched up against Trump compared to Biden, according to an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/where-harris-has-improved-the-most">analysis by statistician Nate Silver</a>.All the excitement around Harris's fresh campaign has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-furious-campaign-start-all-over-post-biden-kamala-harris-2024-7">infuriated Trump</a> and led <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-team-harris-poll-surge-campaign-2024-7">Republicans to argue that it's just a honeymoon</a> phase.Meanwhile, Harris will hope that her surge in polling isn't temporary — and that she can ride the wave of momentum through a shortened campaign season and into the White House.

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