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The <keyword id="23052276" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jammu-and-Kashmir-Assembly" source="keywords">Jammu and Kashmir Assembly</keyword> turned into a stormy scene on Wednesday as '<keyword id="19971030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jai-shri-ram" source="keywords">Jai Shri Ram</keyword>' chants reverberated through the halls, sparking intense clashes over a resolution seeking dialogue with the Centre to restore the special status of the erstwhile state. The resolution was moved to initiate discussions between the central government and elected representatives in Jammu and <keyword id="19896255" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kashmir" source="keywords">Kashmir</keyword>, a proposal that drew a furious response from <keyword id="20450486" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-members" source="keywords">BJP members</keyword> who accused the Speaker of bias and lambasted the ruling National Conference (NC) government. In a session marked by vociferous protests and uproarious disruptions, <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword> members stormed the well of the House, tearing up copies of the resolution. As chants of "Jai Shri Ram," "August 5 Zindabad," "Vande Mataram," and "Anti-national Agenda Nahi Chalega" filled the air, the session became unmanageable. Shouts of "Anti-Jammu Agenda Nahi Chalega," "Pakistani Agenda Nahin Chalega," and "Speaker Hai Hai" underscored the BJP's strong objections, as the Speaker struggled to keep order. The opposition's objections led to multiple pauses in the proceedings, ultimately resulting in the Speaker adjourning the House for the day, leaving the resolution’s future in question. The conflict grew sharper with statements from BJP leaders who claimed the Speaker had acted with partiality. <keyword id="21045920" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sunil-Sharma" source="keywords">Sunil Sharma</keyword>, Leader of the Opposition, asserted, "We have reports that you (Speaker) called a meeting of ministers yesterday and drafted the resolution yourself." Another BJP MLA, Sham Lal Sharma, went further, claiming the resolution had been prepared "in collusion with the Speaker in a guest house." "The mandate (of the Assembly polls) was in favor of abrogation of Article 370 because we (BJP) got 26 percent votes against NC's 23 percent," Sham Lal Sharma argued, framing the election results as support for the Centre’s 2019 decision to revoke Article 370. Meanwhile, Deputy Chief Minister Surinder Choudhary defended the resolution, emphasizing the need to restore special status. In presenting the resolution, Choudhary declared, "This Assembly reaffirms the importance of the special status and constitutional guarantees, which safeguarded the identity, culture, and rights of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, and expresses concern over their unilateral removal." The resolution also called for the Government of India to initiate a dialogue with the elected representatives of Jammu and Kashmir for the restoration of special status and constitutional guarantees and to devise constitutional mechanisms to achieve these ends. "This Assembly emphasises that any process for restoration must safeguard both national unity and the legitimate aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir," the document added. As the fallout continues, the resolution has stirred deep-seated <keyword id="21391765" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="political-tensions" source="keywords">political tensions</keyword>, exposing rifts within the Assembly and drawing the spotlight back on the long-running debate over Article 370. With the adjournment, the next steps in the contentious issue remain uncertain, though it is clear that passions on both sides are far from subsiding. (With inputs from agencies)

BJP members chant “Jai Shri Ram”, tear documents in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly over special status resolution

Earlier today, RBIs MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to leave the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5%, while changing the policy stance toward neutral. The aim, as <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> maintained, was to strike a balance between taming domestic <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> and maintaining target growth. A neutral stance gives the RBI the flexibility to adjust <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> based on the direction of inflation, as opposed to its previous stand of withdrawing accommodation, which eliminates any possibility of rate cuts. While a change of stance doesn’t necessarily mean a cut should follow, most experts view this as a prelude to a possible rate cut in December this year, or even February next year. Says Deepak Ramaraju, Senior Fund Manager, Shriram AMC, "The RBI stance has changed to neutral, indicating that its primary focus is to balance growth and inflation. Growth has been resilient and given the short-term pressure on inflation, RBI may continue to hold interest rates unchanged in Q3 FY 2025. Based on inflation moderating below 4.5% and course of geo-political concerns, the RBI may undertake a rate cut decision in Q4 FY 2025". So, what does this mean for your investments? How will this decision impact your existing funds? We take a look. <h2>Good time to invest in high-yield deposits</h2>This is a good time to invest in high-yield <keyword id="19975805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-deposits" source="keywords">fixed deposits</keyword> and long-term bonds. That's because with rate cuts imminent in the upcoming quarters, you'd be able to lock-in your funds with the prevailing, relatively higher interest rate right now. As for the yellow metal or gold, it is generally considered a safe haven asset during turbulent market times. That's why you should consider making it a part of your investments, or increasing its weightage in your overall portfolio, depending on your needs. Vijay Kuppa, CEO, InCred Money highlights that with deposit rates at elevated levels, one has an ideal opportunity for locking in high-yield fixed deposits."At the same time, high borrowing costs also make a compelling case for increasing debt allocations in investment portfolios, which offer a buffer against potential equity market corrections, which might occur due to <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword>", he continues. With the chronic crisis in Middle-East flaring up again, as Israel looks to target Lebanon and Iran, you can expect some volatility and downturns in the <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword>, both in India and globally, in the times to come. Over the last 5 days, Sensex has dipped by over 1,900 points, or about 2.38%, and Nifty has also gone down by 2.23%. With this set to continue for some time, you can reconsider and evaluate your investments in debt. Mahendra Kumar Jajoo, CIO – Fixed Income, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) explains that the market is confident of a rate cut in the times to come, and that the <keyword id="20066775" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-market" source="keywords">bond market</keyword> has already started pricing in the same. "We have already seen some of this already, with 10Y GOI yields at around 6.75%, having already eased significantly in last few months. So, if investors wait for rate cut to invest, it may be too late for them. Also, with corporate credit picking up, investing in corporate bond funds for a period of 3-5 years can also serve the investor well. Investors having a long term investment horizon and appropriate risk appetite can also invest in gilt funds", he continues. <h2>Dont exit the markets yet </h2>Though short-term biases of FII may continue towards Chinese markets keeping pressure on the equity markets, the resilient domestic flows can defy deep corrections in the equity markets despite high valuations. The markets may trend positive with subsequent rate cuts by the US Fed later this year. Hence, it wont be advisable to completely exit the equity markets during these times, notes Avnish Jain, Head - Fixed Income, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund Jain advises to take a buy on dips approach towards the stock markets i.e. adding quality stocks to your portfolio during times of market downturn. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities says that the current market texture is volatile, hence level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders. "For the bulls now, 25,050/81,700 would be the key level to watch out. Above the same market could retest the level of 25,200-25,225/82,000-82,300. On the flip side, 24,900/81,200 would be the key support zone for the traders. Below the same, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below the same, market could slip till 24,800-24,780/81,000-80,700", explains Chouhan. <h2>Time to buy a home? Maybe! </h2>No rate cut can spell some good news for homebuyers who are looking to get their hands on real estate during the festive season. Even as home loan rates remain steady as of now, homebuyers may have to wait until December or beyond to get any tangible relief in their home loan EMIs. Vimal Nadar, Head of Research, Colliers India explains that a change in stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral” indicates its clear direction for a possible reduction in interest rates in the foreseeable future. This ongoing stability in repo rate should provide a significant thrust to residential real estate during these festive months as home loan interest rates are likely to remain steady. "Typically, Q4, marked by higher inclination of homebuyers to wrap-up property purchases during the auspicious period combined with instantaneous liquidity benefit aided by developers offering attractive discounts, has historically provided the final push to housing sales across the major markets in the country", he added.

RBI leaves repo rate unchanged. What does this mean for you?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe could take a hit to GDP in a second Trump presidency, Goldman Sachs analysts say.</li><li>They point to increased uncertainty as the scope of the timing of Trump's sweeping tariffs remains unclear.</li></ul>As the world takes in the results of the US presidential election, regions around the world are determining what a Trump presidency might mean for their economies.Europe could face a big hit to economic growth as trade tensions increase, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts downgraded their growth forecasts across the region, down to 0.8% from their previous forecast of 1.1% for 2025. In 2026, the analysts said they expect growth of 1%, down from 1.1% and lower than the consensus estimate of versus 1.4%. Overall, the analysts expect the Euro area to take a 0.5% hit to real GDP, with the bulk of the downturn set to materialize next year.The analysts point to renewed trade tensions fueled by Trump's proposal for sweeping tariffs on all US imports.More significant than the actual tariff increases, though, will be the trade policy uncertainty that comes with them, the analysts say. That uncertainty will pose a bigger hit to growth than the tariffs themselves, they said. "The actual magnitude of tariff increases might matter less than the uncertainty created by threatening to impose tariffs on Europe," the analysts said in a Wednesday note, adding, "The magnitude of the tariff increase, however, is unlikely to be clear for some time, and so we expect a pronounced further increase in TPU in the baseline scenario."The firm's trade policy uncertainty indicator for Europe has already risen in recent weeks as markets increasingly priced in odds of a Trump win.The analysts acknowledged, though, that while Trump's 10% across-the-board tariff is a clear risk, they expect his administration to initiate a more moderate set of duties on European countries.Those tariffs will likely target auto exports, which are worth $80 billion, or 0.9% of EU exports, the analysts said. The duties will have large impacts to GDP in Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland in particular, they added. During his campaign, Trump proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">at least 10%</a>, and said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">subject to even steeper 60% duties</a>.The analysts add that a Trump presidency will prompt European countries to up their defense spending to account for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">potential decrease</a> in US military support to Ukraine. That wartime support will cost the EU another 0.5% of GDP every year, the analysts say.The increased spending won't result in a growth boost, either, they say."Any resulting growth boost, however, will likely be limited by modest military spending multipliers in Europe, upward pressure on long-term yields from higher deficits and negative confidence effects from elevated geo-political risk," the analysts said.European officials have long warned of huge growth impacts from a second Trump presidency.Last month, ECB member Joachim Nagel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-economic-growth-inflation-risks-europe-ecb-germany-2024-10">warned</a> a Trump win could hammer growth and send inflation soaring in Europe, and back in January, ECB president Christine Lagarde said a Trump win is "clearly a threat" to Europe, pointing to his tariff plans, commitment to NATO, and climate change policies.

Trump's presidency will hurt Europe's economic growth amid renewed trade tensions, Goldman Sachs says

Post the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, the yellow metal has been scaling record highs every day. And per a recent <keyword id="22362020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UBS-report" source="keywords">UBS report</keyword>, its glitter is not going down anytime soon, with gold potentially touching $2,750 by the end of this year, and as much as $2,900 by the third quarter of 2025. Treasury yields, or interest rates have always had an inverse relationship with gold, which is why the metal's demand witnesses a notable uptick, every time the Fed slashes rates. This is because an interest rate cut reduces the yields i.e. returns that investors earn by way of having funds in government treasury bonds. As a result, investors tend to withdraw their money, weakening the dollar, thereby making the yellow metal a lucrative investment option. Going ahead, the markets are anticipating that the Fed will further bring down interest rates again, by around 75-100 basis points by the end of this year. As the CME FedWatch Tool indicates, there is now a 62.2% chance that the Fed will cut down interest rates by another 50 basis point during its meeting in November. This is also why <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have been seeing a healthy growth in both domestic and international markets. According to a report by Angel One, the demand of safe-haven gold is only set to go up in the months to come. Apart from Fed's rate cuts and the upcoming <keyword id="20585365" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-elections" source="keywords">US elections</keyword>, there are tensions brewing globally on the geo-political front, with militant group Hezbollah's leader <keyword id="22445260" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sayyed-hassan-nasrallah" source="keywords">Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah</keyword> killed in a powerful airstrike in Beirut. This has dealt a heavy blow to the Iran-backed group, as it reels from an escalating campaign of Israeli attacks. "In such times, zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment, more likely so in a low-interest rate environment and also, during geopolitical turmoil", the note added. <h2>Momentum set to continue </h2>The bullion recently touched an all-time high price of $2,670 on September 24th, 2024, and has rallied as much as 10% during the past 6 months. Closer home, we are approaching the festive season, as India gears up to celebrate festivals like Diwali (Dhanteras) and Akshaya Tritiya in October. These have long been associated with heightened gold purchases in the country. Particularly, Dhanteras sees a surge in gold buying as it is considered an auspicious time to acquire new assets, majorly gold. As the UBS report states, "the metal's current elevated starting point provides increased scope for gains in the coming months, particularly as ETF demand accelerates. We recommend gold as a strategic hedge within a diversified portfolio, suggesting a 5% allocation to the precious metal". Alekh Yadav, Head of Investment Products at Sanctum Wealth, also advises making some allocation to gold in your portfolio, since gold has a negative correlation with equities; whenever equity markets correct, gold typically performs better. Given that US markets are currently at elevated valuations, gold can serve as a hedge against potential global equity corrections, he explains. "In conclusion, we believe that some allocation to gold, even at current levels, makes sense as a hedge against global risks", he continues. As a thumb rule, you should always have anywhere between 5-10% allocation to gold via digital gold, gold bonds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) etc., since it serves as an effective hedge against inflation, and declining yields. Note that your allocation to gold should not be arbitrary or as a lumpsum, but rather in sync with your overall financial goals, and also, should be increased gradually, via SIPs. However, during prevailing economic conditions, increasing your investments in gold might not be a bad idea as well. But remember to consult with your financial planner over this. Over-investing in gold is also not advisable, since the asset class does not generate high-returns, which means a significant potion of your money could be stuck in a non-yield generating asset, when it could have been in equities or other assets, which generate comparatively more returns.

Is this a good time to invest in gold? Here's what experts are saying

<keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">Gold prices</keyword> dropped by 2% last week, in what has been the first weekly drop in prices in six weeks. This week, after a marginal drop on Monday, the prices declined sharply again on Tuesday by Rs 555 to Rs 71,047 per 10 grams in futures trade that matures on June 5 as speculators reduced their positions. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Weak global cues" comment="subhead" text="Weak global cues">Weak global cues</cmsannotation> While a steady market marked three straight months of an upward trend, the drop since last week has mainly been attributed to weak global cues. As the drop revives enthusiasm among investors waiting to invest more in the yellow metal, the markets are cautiously awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision before making further moves. “Gold futures witnessed the first weekly decline in six and plunged more than 2% during the previous week, as investors gauged ease in geopolitical tensions, mixed economic data from the US and hawkish comments from Fed officials ahead of the FOMC policy meeting this week. The US economy grew much less than expected in Q1 but inflationary pressures remained elevated,” explains Kaynat Chainwala, Senior Manager-Commodity Research at Kotak Securities. A report from Motilal Oswal Financial Services highlighted a sharp slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to 1.6% annually in the last quarter amid high-interest rates. The steady U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index suggests a potential delay in Fed rate cuts at least until September. In contrast, China witnessed a nearly 6% surge in gold consumption in the first quarter. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Domestic outlook" comment="subhead" text="Domestic outlook">Domestic outlook</cmsannotation> Last week, physical gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in almost two months, attracting buyers with lower domestic prices. Domestically, gold is anticipated to trade within the range of Rs. 71-72k amid cautious <keyword id="21482860" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-sentiments" source="keywords">market sentiments</keyword> driven by evolving economic indicators. Indian gold consumption in the Jan-March quarter rose 8% to 136.6 tons, as investment demand jumped 19% and jewellery demand rose 4% in the quarter, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. But recent rallies in its prices could cut its total consumption in 2024 to the lowest in four years. Potential for higher returns due to soaring prices is boosting investment demand on one hand while suppressing consumption for use in jewellery on the other, say analysts. Historically, gold is considered a safe-haven asset that retains or appreciates its value during turbulent times. The gold price forecasts for this year remain high amid simmering geopolitical woes as investors flock to the safe-haven asset and spur record-beating prices further as central banks bolster their reserves. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Non-farm payroll data to play a role" comment="subhead" text="Non-farm payroll data to play a role"><keyword id="21482862" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="non-farm-payroll-data" source="keywords">Non-farm payroll data</keyword> to play a role</cmsannotation> On Monday a weaker dollar, U.S. gold futures remained steady at around $2,350 levels. The dollar decreased by 0.3% compared to other currencies, which increased the attractiveness of gold for holders of different currencies. Apart from the fed policy meeting, non-farm payroll data is also due later this week and could hold major implications for the <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> trend later this year. "Gold market participants are essentially waiting for this Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Markets are well priced for the notion that the Fed should be in no rush to cut rates, given signs of sticky inflation and resilient growth," Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, said. The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting will begin on April 30. Market analysts have been attributing the recent correction in gold prices to the Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate cuts, which bolstered the dollar index and U.S. treasury yields. According to the CME FedWatch tool, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.5% by the conclusion of the meeting on Wednesday. (With inputs from agencies)

Gold prices fluctuate as geopolitical tensions ease; US Fed meeting, payroll data to affect prices this week

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Japanese destroyer crossed the Taiwan Strait for the first time in decades, per reports.</li><li>It transited at the same time as Australian and New Zealand naval vessels, reports said.</li></ul>A Japanese destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time in decades, Japan's Yomiuri newspaper <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240925-OYT1T50170/">reported</a>, citing Japanese government officials.The JS Sazanami, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.seaforces.org/marint/Japan-Maritime-Self-Defense-Force/Destroyer/Takanami-class_DAT/DD-113-JDS-Sazanami.htm">destroyer</a> operated by Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force, or MSDF, entered the strait from the East China Sea on Wednesday morning and completed its journey that evening, unnamed officials told the outlet.The report said it was the first time a Japanese naval vessel had passed through the strait since the Self-Defense Force was established, which was in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Self-Defense-Force">1954.</a>The officials said that Japan's prime minister, Fumio Kishida, had ordered the move as a countermeasure to China.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/09/f2aefb85d27d-urgent-japan-defense-force-ship-sails-through-taiwan-strait-for-1st-time.html">Kyoto News</a>, Japan's news agency, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240926_09/">NHK</a>, Japan's public broadcaster, also reported on the development.During a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://japan.kantei.go.jp/tyoukanpress/202409/26_a.html">press conference</a> on Thursday, Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, said he would refrain from making a comment on the reports but said that China's military activities around Taiwan had been "expanding" and that Japan was looking at the situation with "very strong" interest.Australian and New Zealand naval vessels also transited through the strait at the same time, ahead of joint exercises with the MSDF in the South China Sea, the reports said.An Australian defense spokesperson told Business Insider that two of its naval vessels completed a routine transit of the strait and added that Australian Defense Force activities are conducted in accordance with international law."Our deployments to the region demonstrate our commitment to support an open, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific," they said.Japan's foreign affairs ministry and New Zealand's defense ministry didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.It's not the first time in recent weeks that international vessels have crossed the Taiwan Strait.Two German warships <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/german-warships-sailed-taiwan-strait-first-time-in-decades-2024-9">sailed</a> through earlier this month for the first time in two decades, with the country's prime minister saying they had a right to transit.German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/BMVg_Bundeswehr/status/1834500878260142184">said</a> during a press conference at the time that "international waters are international waters."He added: "It's the shortest and, given the weather conditions, the safest route. So we are passing through."The US and its allies and partners, including Taiwan, maintain that the strait is open for freedom of navigation — but China doesn't see it quite the same way.During a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xw/fyrbt/202409/t20240926_11497961.html">press conference</a> on Wednesday, China's foreign ministry said it was "highly vigilant on Japan's political intention behind this move."Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters that "the Taiwan question concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," adding that it is the political foundation of China-Japan relations and a red line that must not be crossed.China maintains that it has indisputable sovereignty over Taiwan, an autonomous island democracy, and routinely applies military, economic, and diplomatic pressure with the threat of force to achieve unification ever-present.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1838771698558210308">updates</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1838020456269373703">shared</a> by Taiwan's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1838382850246349110">defense</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1837658068718666122">ministry</a>, China's aircraft, vessels, and ships now operate around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes crossing the median line in the strait and causing Taiwan to scramble its planes.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1839107621527367701">latest</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1838771698558210308">updates</a> show an uptick in Chinese aircraft and vessels being deployed and crossing Taiwan's air defense identification zone.Military experts say that signs — like China's rapid modernization of its armed forces over the past two decades and drills around Taiwan — <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">point</a> to potential military action to seize the island by force, possibly in just a few years.

A Japanese warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time in decades, as tensions grow with China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The next US president faces a range of international challenges and potential crises.</li><li>War continues in Ukraine, tensions are rising across the Indo-Pacific region, and ongoing issues plague the Middle East.</li></ul>Just two months out from the 2024 US presidential election, former President Donald Trump and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> are working to appeal to American voters on issues like the economy, culture, women's healthcare, and education, among other domestic matters.But there's a lot going on abroad right now, and many of these problems likely aren't going away anytime soon.Regardless of who is elected to the highest office this fall, the next president will potentially face a wide range of international challenges — and potential crises — that may draw their attention beyond the US borders. Issues range from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-drills-near-taiwan-send-new-president-a-message-2024-5">China and Taiwan</a> to the Middle East to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-typhoon-military-unit-drone-operations-training-2024-9">Ukraine war</a>.Trump's first term, and his foreign policy in particular, were marked by an "America First" strategy that overhauled the US role on the global stage. On a second go around, it's unclear what that continued approach would look like, although he's recently expressed some controversial opinions on NATO, how he would have handled <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-no-win-situation-gaza-after-months-war-crush-hamas-2024-1">Israel's war in Gaza</a>, and the Ukraine war.<div type="image" title="Israeli tanks move near Gaza border as Israeli army deploys military vehicles around the Gaza Strip, Israel on October 12, 2023." height="3648" width="5472" msid="113169548" hostid="261" sizebytes="1586574"></div>Harris, on the other hand, may find international issues to be something of a<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-tim-walz-first-interview-cnn-takeaways-2024-8"> hurdle</a>. She has yet to release a platform on issues like Ukraine and Russia, China, and North Korea, and it's unclear how many, if any, of her policies will align with President Joe Biden's approach.But either Trump or Harris will likely find foreign policy at the forefront of their presidencies as the world changes — and with some conflicts on the brink or ongoing, these are some of the biggest problems that could be awaiting whoever sits in the Oval Office next.<h2 id="4a2e4a5e-66a8-4f3d-b799-b3bd2dd76299">Russia and the Ukraine war</h2><div type="image" title="Shells sit on the ground in front of an artillery unit actively firing against a blue sky, fire erupting from the barrel." height="5760" width="8640" msid="113169549" hostid="261" sizebytes="3142076"></div>Over two and a half years in, the war in Ukraine has no immediate end in sight. Casualties are abysmal, with recent Western intelligence estimates putting Russian deaths and injuries at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suffered-hundreds-thousands-casualties-in-ukraine-western-intelligence-2024-9">over 600,000</a>. Ukrainian forces have likewise suffered high losses, though details are unclear. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-kursk-invasion-russia-hasnt-eased-pressure-off-front-line-2024-9">Ukraine shockingly invaded the Kursk region in Russia</a>, but Russian forces in Ukraine continue advancing.And beyond the war itself, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-worrying-military-tech-north-korea-could-get-from-russia-2024-6">North Korean support for Russia</a>, including ammunition, missiles, and other equipment, has created a concerning partnership between America's foes.US politics have often impacted how the country supports Ukraine, engages with its allies and partners on this issue, and how it confronts Russia over the conflict. These issues, like those of the war itself, continue to linger.The US has been impactful, backing Ukraine as its largest single-nation provider of security assistance, but divisions in Congress have made sending more support difficult at times. Additionally, US flip-flopping and repeated hesitation on weapons provisions and use have often been criticized for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-vote-could-make-break-ukraine-in-war-with-russia-2024-4">hindering Ukraine</a>.Trump and Harris have expressed polar opposite views of supporting Ukraine, which adds uncertainty to Kyiv's future.Trump has said, without reason or evidence, that he'd end the Ukraine war in 24 hours and has repeatedly threatened to undermine the NATO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-nato-views-threaten-key-to-alliances-strength-article-5-2024-2">alliance's collective defense</a>. Harris has said she "will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies," citing her efforts within the Biden administration to support Kyiv as evidence.<h2 id="4fd37882-1e09-4ef6-9434-96d0b7b9b3cd">An aggressive China</h2><div type="image" title="Three amphibious ferrying vehicles sit in the blue ocean with the cityscape and mountains of New Taipei, Taiwan, in the background." height="2666" width="4000" msid="113169556" hostid="261" sizebytes="808580"></div>Issues in the Indo-Pacific region, especially related to China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, as well as other regional US allies, are likely to be important matters facing the next president as well.The Pentagon has long identified this region as its primary focus, even as other conflicts around the world often <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-has-no-aircraft-carriers-pacific-focus-middle-east-2024-8">pull its attention away</a>, and all branches of the US military have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-training-to-counter-aggressive-insidious-china-top-general-2024-2">stepped up training, exercises, and strategies</a> to deter the US' pacing challenge, China.The ongoing clashes between China and the Philippines in contested waters in the South China Sea are rooted in long-standing disputes and have the potential to escalate into conflict, which could draw the US in through its mutual defense pact.Recently, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command even suggested it's possible the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels</a> to protect them from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-air-force-harassed-us-ally-aircraft-south-china-sea-2024-8">Chinese harassment</a>, essentially putting the US in the middle of this South China Sea standoff.Another potential flashpoint is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">possible Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan</a>, which Beijing claims as its own, relentlessly seeking unification. China has repeatedly stated that unification with the autonomous island nation is inevitable, even if it must be done by force. The US military has said that China aims to be ready for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">such a fight</a> by 2027.Beijing's intimidation tactics, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-showed-how-easily-no-notice-it-can-surround-taiwan-2024-6">large military exercises</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-drills-a-test-as-well-as-show-of-force-2024-5">constant incursions in Taiwan's waters and airspace</a>, have raised concerns over how Beijing would use its military to force Taiwan into submission.Trump and Harris again differ on the US role in this region. Trump has shown less support for alliances, left ambiguity around US defense commitments to Taiwan, and said Taiwan should pay the US for its support. Harris has repeatedly called out China's aggressive behavior in the region and aligns with Biden on support for Taiwan.<h2 id="12869c13-0a07-4147-83b4-b9f50953cd03">The ongoing crises in the Middle East</h2><div type="image" title="An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles toward Israel." height="2899" width="4346" msid="113169554" hostid="261" sizebytes="610950"></div>Another major issue, like the war in Ukraine, is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-devastating-airstrikes-hamas-gaza-requesting-more-bombs-weapons-2023-10">Israel's ongoing war in Gaza</a>.Since Hamas carried out its vicious terrorist attack inside Israel on October 7, 2023, killing over 1,000 Israelis, mostly civilians, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/07/17/october-7-crimes-against-humanity-war-crimes-hamas-led-groups">Human Rights Watch</a>, the horrors that have unfolded in the region have presented various challenges for the Biden administration.Israel's war, which has involved bombing campaigns and ground operations, has killed over 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to estimates from the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. It has also sparked <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9">increased tensions</a> and, in some cases, outright conflicts with Iran and its proxies, often bringing the Middle East just to the brink of all-out war. There have been assassinations, missile barrages, firefights, and more.The Iranian-backed Houthis' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-eisenhower-planes-in-air-constantly-houthis-2024-2">attacks on commercial shipping lanes</a> in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman began in response to the war but have evolved into something more over time. The US<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-carrier-strike-groups-significant-combat-power-middle-east-2024-8"> has sent forces</a>, particularly aircraft carriers and destroyers, to the region to deter Iran and confront the Houthi rebels.Efforts to stop the Houthis have cost the US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-warships-fired-munitions-substantial-cost-fighting-houthis-2024-8">over $1 billion in weapons</a>, including surface-to-air missiles, land-attack missiles, air-to-air missiles, and air-to-surface weapons. And that figure was just for one carrier strike group and a few extra destroyers.It's unclear when these conflicts will end.Harris' language on Israel and Gaza has mostly echoed Biden's: staunch support for Israel but with repeated calls for a ceasefire. But the White House's continued issues with pro-Palestinian protestors and disagreements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are trickling into Harris' campaign.Trump showed unequivocal support for Israel in his first term and made repeated decisions that improved US-Israeli relations. He has said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-criticizes-israels-photos-of-bombings-in-gaza-2024-3">he supports Israel's war in Gaza</a> and would continue to give Israel the weapons and aid it wants; he also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/27/trump-israel-gaza-policy-donors/">told donors</a> he'd "crush" pro-Palestinian protestors.<h2 id="98b08573-8c71-486a-8dd8-7ccb85ded3e2">Tensions with North Korea</h2><div type="image" title="This undated picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 16, 2017 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un inspecting a launching drill of the medium-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 at an undisclosed location." height="1652" width="2500" msid="113169552" hostid="261" sizebytes="67288"></div>North Korea has bounced back from failed negotiations with the US and the isolation of COVID, establishing new, potentially fruitful connections with Russia through arms deals. Those ties have China engaging Pyongyang as well, leaving it, as one expert said earlier this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-sitting-pretty-as-russia-china-vie-for-attention-2024-1">"sitting pretty."</a>North Korea has been emboldened, setting in stone its nuclear status and continuing to advance its missile programs while notably strengthening its relationship with US rivals.Additionally, North Korean provocations persist amid growing concerns about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-next-north-korea-crisis-could-come-this-year-2024-5">inter-Korean conflict</a>, which would, as it did in the 1950s, inevitably draw in the US in response.Trump and Harris may be more aligned on their North Korean policy than other issues, but US policy with regard to North Korea has traditionally been a pitfall, with displays of force and demands for it to denuclearize often failing. Negotiations have also been unsuccessful.In shaping US policy, the next president could also face challenges with South Korea's president Yoon Suk Yeol, a hawk who has taken a harsher stance on North Korea than the previous administration, requiring the delicate navigation of bilateral relations.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris." height="1000" width="2000" msid="113169559" hostid="261" sizebytes="125244"></div>Both Trump and Harris find themselves running for president at a particular tense time in global politics. Amid a number of challenges at home, US attention is being pulled in a variety of directions.Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election this November will have to consider how to manage these issues along with the US position on the world stage. And their decisions could impact not just the US, but allies, partners, and adversaries as well.

This is the conflict-ridden, tension-filled world that the next US president may have to face

<ul class="summary-list"><li>I live with four generations under one roof: my mother, daughter, and granddaughter. </li><li>We often got into political disagreements that would end in shouting and tears. </li></ul>Nothing raises the decibels in my house more than a political discussion. Living with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-in-multigenerational-home-crowded-special-2023-12">four generations under one roof</a> can be difficult. With issues ranging from the Electoral College to climate control to the homeless situation, everyone in our household has a different opinion.In the past, words would fly back and forth across the room, crashing into each other. No one was really listening to what anyone else was saying. My husband, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-changes-political-divides-2019-7">conservation Republican</a>, would retreat to our room in search of his antacid pills. My granddaughter, a progressive radical democrat, found herself on the toilet with a queasy stomach. My daughter, mostly apolitical, turned to funny memes for solace. I — who is often stuck in the middle somewhere — usually would end up with a headache. My mother has dementia, so she usually would sit these discussions out.After too many disruptive occasions, I realized we needed to make some changes before our family became the feature story on the nightly news. Sitting around in total silence wasn't an option — neither was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/traded-iphone-dumb-phone-better-mom-2024-2">burying ourselves in our cellphones</a> all the time.After much thought, I called a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/family-meetings-saved-marriage-after-becoming-mom">family meeting</a> and proposed the following guidelines for having calm, beneficial discussions.<h2>First, I implemented a "no interruption" policy</h2>This was hard at first since our family loves to cut each other off mid-sentence without really hearing what the other person is saying. Actually, we do hear, but often, we don't actively listen.We decided to set a time limit for each person, and no one can disrupt until that person's time is up. Also, absolutely no <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/senate-votes-against-filibuster-reforms-to-pass-voting-rights-bill-2022-1">filibustering is allowed</a>.<h2>We all have to acknowledge differences of opinion</h2>We understand that we thought differently on many subjects, but in the past, we would try to change each other's views.Now, my husband is trying to understand why my granddaughter views the world completely differently. He's asking intelligent questions instead of shouting at her, lessening the tension in our house.<h2>We should seek to find areas where we do agree</h2>This was fairly easy. For example, everyone in our household is sympathetic to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/churches-build-tiny-homes-to-help-ease-the-homeless-crisis-2022-6">the homeless situation</a>; no one wants to see people go hungry. Our differences lie in the solution.We began a discussion agreeing that something needed to be done, and we went around the table with possible suggestions on helping the homeless. When my husband proposed a solution that seemed totally outrageous to our granddaughter, instead of shouting at him, she asked with all sincerity as to why he felt that way.<h2>There can be absolutely no name-calling</h2>In the past, when things got heated, name-calling was common. But now that's a big no-no in our house. This condition is an absolute must.We agreed to be polite and respectful at all times.<h2>We need to remember that body language is important</h2>Fidgeting, folding one's arms, crossing legs, and looking away are all <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-read-body-language-2017-5">signs of discomfort</a>. I told everyone that we must be aware of these behaviors when talking and always make eye contact.Additionally, looking directly at someone shows respect and lets them know you are practicing active listening.<h2>We should use humor to lighten the mood</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/care-for-my-mom-with-alzheimers-from-faraway-2023-10">My mother's dementia</a> is often a springboard for laughter, easing the tension in the room. She'll repeat what she thinks she hears, and sometimes it's so off the wall that we can't help but laugh.But even when she isn't present, one can always interject something humorous into the conversation.<h2>We can familiarize ourselves with the opposition's viewpoint</h2>We agreed to watch news channels and read articles recommended by family members in order to gain better knowledge of their viewpoints.Along with this, we agreed to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fact-checkers-say-youtube-not-doing-enough-combat-fake-news-2022-1">call out misinformation</a> respectfully. Instead of shouting out, "That's wrong!" and pointing a finger, we promised to ask, "Where did you read that?"<h2>When things get difficult, take a step back</h2>In the past, we would argue until everyone left the room, and tears were inevitably shed by someone — if not all participants. Now, we know how to read the room, so to speak.We try to walk away before the heat level reaches the boiling point.<h2>Set realistic goals</h2>We decided that our goal as a family was not to change the other person's opinion. Instead, the goal is to simply understand.Of course, we all want to change each other, but that is unrealistic and led to all the heated arguments in the first place.<h2>Remember: Keep an open mind</h2>Perhaps the most important rule is to come into these conversations with an open mind. We can't learn why someone thinks the way they do if we are narrow-minded and unwilling to change.In other words, we've agreed to disagree. We are all in different stages of our lives. A disabled Vietnam veteran is not going to see the world the same as a young liberal living on social media. But we all share our love and respect for one another.Once all family members agreed to these rules, our family dinners and gatherings are now manageable and peaceful, and I guarantee we won't be featured on Hometown Homicide anytime soon.

We have 4 generations living together, and political conversations often ended in tears. These 10 rules helped ease tensions.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>More engagement between the US and <keyword id="1334" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword> doesn't mean they trust each other more, an analyst says.</li><li>Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer emphasized that Washington and China still disagreed on many issues.</li></ul>The US and China have been engaging more with each other.But just because they're talking more doesn't mean that they actually trust each other more, an analyst says. "The trend for this year has been more engagement, more communications, but not more trust," Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-04-24/bremmer-us-china-relations-getting-worse-quite-slowly-video">Bloomberg TV</a> on Wednesday. In November, US President <keyword id="99719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="Orion">Joe Biden</keyword> and China's leader, <keyword id="191809" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="xi-jinping" source="Orion">Xi Jinping</keyword>, met during the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-xi-pull-away-from-brink-conflict-apec-meeting-china-2023-11">APEC summit</a> in San Francisco, appearing keen to smooth over tensions. Bremmer said that since then, there'd been more stability in the US-China relationship. Earlier this month, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-treasurys-yellen-return-china-emphasize-excess-capacity-threat-2024-04-02/">Janet Yellen</a>, the US treasury secretary, visited China seeking cooperation in areas beneficial to both countries. <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/china-austin-military-pentagon-blinken-1f3923ce6284314ba38c101b6fee8b80">Lloyd Austin</a>, the defense secretary, also spoke with China's defense minister last week. <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/us-china-blinken-xi-middle-east-russia-210b07bcc585b9f2de14ff71951d8743">Antony Blinken</a>, the secretary of state, is due in China on Wednesday. The rash of high-level meetings signals a thaw in <keyword id="20736761" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="US-China-relations" source="keywords">US-China relations</keyword> — even if the two don't agree with each other over many issues. "That means you still have plenty of areas that the countries are unhappy with each other, but when there is conflict, the conflict does not escalate out of control — rather, the escalations are targeted and calibrated," Bremmer told Bloomberg TV. It's a matter of seeing the glass as being half full or half empty. "So we can say that the relationship is getting worse, it's true, but it's getting worse quite slowly, and there's more stability to the relationship," said Bremmer. <h2>US-China communication has stabilized tensions over Taiwan</h2>The big upside to increased communications between the US and China is that the world's top two global powers are less likely to have a direct clash. This is the reason Washington and Beijing's tensions over Taiwan — which Beijing claims as its own territory — have been relatively stable. Bremmer said that "the US and China know each other's red lines" and the challenges in their relationship after decades of communication, making "extremely nuanced calibrations" an easier task. He said this understanding between the US and China was why there was no "strong and sudden escalation that brought the two sides to crisis" after Taiwanese Vice President William Lai — whom Beijing views as a separatist — won <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-election-president-william-lai-ching-te-xi-china-hates-2024-1">Taiwan's presidential election</a> in January. "It's always better to have more engagement, more conversations," Bremmer said, "especially when you don't trust each other." Correction: April 24, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the first name of the US secretary of state. His name is Antony Blinken, not Anthony Blinken.

US-China Relations: Engagements increase but trust lacking, observes analyst

<keyword id="19909056" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Mamata-Banerjee" source="keywords">Mamata Banerjee</keyword>, the <keyword id="19924917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chief-Minister" source="keywords">Chief Minister</keyword> of <keyword id="19896517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="West-Bengal" source="keywords">West Bengal</keyword> and leader of the <keyword id="19968095" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Trinamool-Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Trinamool Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Trinamool Congress">Trinamool Congress</keyword> (TMC), has been a dominant force in the state's politics for over a decade. Recently, she offered to resign amidst the ongoing <keyword id="23154517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="R-G-Kar-Hospital-protests" source="keywords">R.G. Kar Hospital protests</keyword>, where junior doctors have been on strike demanding justice for a murdered colleague. While Banerjee’s offer to step down seems more symbolic, aimed at quelling tensions, it raises important questions about what would happen if she were to actually resign as Chief Minister. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the process and its implications for West Bengal: <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">1. Resignation</h3>If Mamata Banerjee were to formally submit her resignation, the process would begin with her presenting a written resignation letter to the <keyword id="23154515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Governor-of-West-Bengal" source="keywords">Governor of West Bengal</keyword>. This is the standard protocol for any Chief Minister in India. The resignation is at the discretion of the Governor, who typically accepts it unless there is a compelling reason not to. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113307547" title="West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee offers to resign after agitating doctors refuse to meet without live streaming" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Once the resignation is accepted, Banerjee would cease to be the CM immediately. However, the Governor might request her to continue as a caretaker CM until a new government is formed. In this role, Banerjee would oversee a temporary government with limited powers, unable to make significant policy decisions or pass new laws. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">2. Election of a new leader</h3>Mamata Banerjee’s resignation would leave a significant leadership vacuum within the Trinamool Congress, which currently has a strong majority in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. Given her deep-rooted influence over the party, it’s likely that the TMC would convene an emergency meeting to elect a new leader. Banerjee’s close associates, such as her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, could be contenders for the CM post. Alternatively, the party could look for a senior and experienced leader to stabilise the situation until the next elections. However, given Banerjee’s control over the party, she may still wield significant influence from behind the scenes, even if she officially steps down. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">3. Role of the Governor</h3>In the absence of a clear successor, the Governor plays a key role. The Governor might invite the TMC to form the government again by electing a new leader, but if the party fails to show a majority or experiences factionalism, the Governor could explore other options. This could include inviting the opposition to form the government if they demonstrate the numbers, or even recommending <keyword id="23154516" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Presidents-Rule" source="keywords">President’s Rule</keyword> in the state under Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, where the central government takes over the state's administration. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112644728" title="Bengal in state of flux, people lost faith in present government: Governor CV Ananda Bose" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div><h3>4. <keyword id="20554823" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vote-of-confidence" source="keywords">Vote of confidence</keyword></h3>Once a new leader is chosen by the TMC, they will be sworn in as the next Chief Minister. However, they would need to prove their majority on the floor of the West Bengal Legislative Assembly. This process, known as a vote of confidence, is crucial in determining whether the new CM has the support of the majority of the legislators. If the party remains united, this step should be straightforward. However, in the event of internal splits within the TMC or if Banerjee’s resignation triggers political instability, the new leader may struggle to secure the necessary support, potentially leading to fresh elections. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">5. Impact on West Bengal’s <keyword id="20142886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="political-landscape" source="keywords">political landscape</keyword></h3>Mamata Banerjee’s resignation would have a profound impact on the political landscape of West Bengal. She has been the face of the TMC and has led the party to consecutive electoral victories, defeating formidable opponents like the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Her departure from the top post could trigger a realignment within the state’s political sphere. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113087561" title="Calcutta High Court seeks CBI report on nasty social media posts on RG Kar hospital rape-murder victim" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>If Banerjee were to leave active politics, it could embolden opposition parties like the BJP, which has been trying to expand its footprint in the state. Additionally, there could be a power struggle within the TMC itself, especially if no clear successor emerges. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:16pt;margin-bottom:4pt;">6. President’s Rule as a last resort</h3>In an extreme scenario, where the TMC fails to elect a new leader or where political instability leads to a breakdown of governance, the Governor could recommend President’s Rule. Under this provision, the state government is suspended, and the central government takes direct control of the state’s administration. President’s Rule is generally viewed as a last resort and can be imposed if no party can form a stable government. However, given the TMC’s strong majority in the assembly, this is an unlikely scenario unless there is significant internal fragmentation within the party. In short, if Mamata Banerjee resigns, West Bengal’s political future would hinge on how swiftly a new leader is appointed by her party and how successfully they can prove majority support in the assembly. Should this process falter, the state could face either interim governance under a caretaker government or even the possibility of President’s Rule, depending on the stability of the assembly.

What will happen if Mamata Banerjee actually resigns as the Chief Minister of West Bengal?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>After nearly four years of marriage, my husband and I started having political arguments.</li><li>We also realized we wanted different things for our futures, so we got divorced in our 50s.</li></ul>When my now <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-husband-married-someone-similar-name-2024-7">ex-husband</a> and I decided to divorce, it was just past our 25th anniversary. We had been together for 11 years before getting married, so we had been a couple for 36 years.It's strange to feel you're part of a trend. There have been many recent articles about "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-and-melinda-gates-divorce-gray-divorce-trend-2021-5">gray divorces</a>," which involve couples over the age of 50 parting ways.After nearly four decades, it seemed impossible that the only answer for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/track-college-son-phone-caused-fighting-husband-2024-4">my husband</a> and me could be divorce. But it was, and we did it —and we're happy we did.<h2 id="db0499aa-b590-4edc-9285-af70e6658517">Politics played a big role in our 'gray divorce'</h2>I would say we sailed through most of our relationship with ease. When we announced our <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rebuilding-my-life-after-painful-divorce-middle-age-2024-7">pending divorce,</a> some friends declared that if we split up, nobody in the world had any hope of staying together. For the most part, it was a very good life together.However, toward the end, we faced challenges that made it impossible for us to be happy if we stayed married. Some of the pressures were external, and some were internal.At the time, I figured we were going through what many people call a political divorce. Toward the end, we fought more about politics than anything else. Throughout most of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/signs-your-partner-is-marriage-material-2018-4">our marriage</a>, we both considered ourselves pretty centrists. He was a little right of center, and I was a little left, but we agreed about most political things discussed in the news. We were privileged enough not to have to worry about most of it.But we have two <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/children-pride-parade-overwhelmed-belong-lgbtq-2024-6">queer children</a>, and they both came out within the last 10 years. They also are both intelligent, well-informed, and very vocal about their beliefs. Their arguments most definitely influenced me. My husband stayed on the other side ideologically. To be fair, it must have felt we'd ganged up on him. Through it all, though, he has shown full, unwavering support and love for our children. This is one of the reasons that, despite the divorce, I will always love him.A strange result of our split was that, as soon as we decided to divorce, we weren't angry with each other anymore. Everything became easier to talk about, and we were nicer to each other. We went out for a drink the night before we turned in the paperwork and walked hand in hand to the office to file it. It was surreal. That's not to say we don't still disagree about many things, but he will always be family to me.<h2 id="f473d0db-cc65-4b2c-acd8-93e565f39f7e">There were larger issues at play for us</h2>With some distance, I can say that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/political-beliefs-husband-wife-argument-fight-often-2024-5">political differences</a> were most likely a stand-in for the frustration of the real issues that we didn't want to or couldn't find the words to fight about.I spent the first part of our lives working alongside him in his field while also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-got-doctorate-studied-while-raising-young-kids-parenting-2024-4">raising kids</a> at home. But recently, I wanted to start a new career, and he wasn't interested in being a part of it. Separate health issues also contribute to how we view the second halves of our lives and how we want to spend them.We are both sad that we couldn't get past the differences, but to continue the marriage, one of us would have had to be unsatisfied with how life would go. We felt it was better to fully support each other on our individual journeys than live a life that compromises what we want. Even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/adult-kids-live-at-home-hard-expensive-but-worth-it-2024-5">the kids</a> agree we work better divorced than married, and there is much less tension when we're all together.When we married, I promised to love him for the rest of my life, and I now feel confident that I'll do that. It's not how we originally pictured it, but it's just right for us.

My husband and I divorced because of differing political beliefs. I still love him, but we want different futures.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Some Americans are choosing to retire abroad because of healthcare costs and divisive politics.</li><li>Many of them are moving to Italy, where the cost of living is more affordable.</li></ul>Eric and Christina Schwendeman's relationship got serious the day he brought up retirement."I have a long-term plan," Eric, 53, recalled telling his now-wife nearly two decades ago. "I want to work as hard as possible and retire to Italy as young as I possibly can."At the time, the couple lived in Naples, Florida, which is more than 5,000 miles and a 13-hour long-haul flight from Italy."He was like, 'That's my goal. If you're on board for that, then let's do this,'" Christina, 40, said.<div type="image" title="Eric and Christina Schwendeman in Clavesana. " height="1536" width="2048" msid="109857164" hostid="261" sizebytes="449542"></div>The Schwendemans began planning for their life outside the United States about 17 years ago, but an increasing number of Americans these days are following their example. The <a target="_blank" href="https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/travel/CA-By-the-Number-2020.pdf">US State Department</a> estimated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-moving-abroad-cost-of-living-too-expensive-debt-retirement-2024-4#:~:text=The%20State%20Department%20estimated%20in,figure%20closer%20to%204%20million.">9 million American citizens lived abroad in 2020</a>, which is a jump from 5 million in 2010.<h2>The US is no longer a desirable place to retire</h2>There used to be a seemingly clear-cut path to retirement in the United States.People worked until 65, then left the workforce with the help of Social Security and personal savings. That began shifting in the 1980s when <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-social-security-gen-z-millennials-uncertainty-fears-pensions-2024-4">Americans gravitated toward defined-contribution</a> plans — like 401(k)s — instead of defined-benefit plans like pensions. This has shifted more responsibility onto employees to determine how much to invest and save."Put simply, the shift from defined benefit to defined contribution has been, for most people, a shift from financial certainty to financial uncertainty," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote in a 2024 letter to investors.Millions of <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-x-baby-boomers-savings-cant-afford-retirement-2024-4">baby boomers now struggle</a> to cover their cost of living.An <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://press.aarp.org/2024-4-24-New-AARP-Survey-1-in-5-Americans-Ages-50-Have-No-Retirement-Savings">AARP survey in April</a> found that one in five Americans who are 50 or older have no retirement savings, and more than half of respondents were concerned they wouldn't have enough to support themselves if they retired.So, as retirement in the United States gets bleak, some Americans are looking elsewhere. Specifically, they are looking to Italy, which ranks among the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/these-countries-have-the-most-generous-retirement-plans-in-the-world/articleshow/104527568.cms">top 20 countries with the most generous retirement systems</a>.<h2>Americans are settling into quaint Italian towns</h2><div type="image" title="Eric and Christina Schwendeman in Clavesana. " height="1536" width="2048" msid="109857166" hostid="261" sizebytes="501132"></div>For the Schwendemans, the opportunity to leave the United States arrived in 2022.Eric and Christina worked in the automotive industry, which was severely impacted by the pandemic. About 575,000 jobs in the industry <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mexicos-auto-heartland-workers-struggle-chip-shortage-bites-2021-11-24/#:~:text=A%20bipartisan%20group%20of%20U.S.,industry%20jobs%20have%20been%20impacted.">were lost</a> by the fall 2021."We could see that the automotive industry was going to take a turn around the same time that we were seeing it in the housing industry," Christina said. "We said, 'It's probably a good time for us to leave our jobs and sell our house.'"They moved to Clavesana, a small town of less than 900 people in Italy's Piedmont region and purchased a home that sits on just under an acre of land. Eric and Christina did not share the exact cost, but said the home was about 150 euros — or $161 — per square foot.<div type="image" title="Eric and Christina Schwendeman in Clavesana. " height="1536" width="2048" msid="109857169" hostid="261" sizebytes="381272"></div>Although moving to Italy was always a dream, the couple said other factors, including the cost of healthcare in America, also played a role.Micki Dukinfield, 72, echoed that sentiment. Dukinfield and her husband left Minnesota for Vicenza, a city about an hour from Venice, in November 2023. Their home cost about 188,500 euros or about $200,000.<div type="image" title="Micki Dukinfield in Vincenza, Italy." height="3024" width="4032" msid="109857171" hostid="261" sizebytes="634782"></div>"I knew that as we got older, healthcare would always become an issue," Dukinfield told Business Insider.According to <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.fidelity.com/about-fidelity/our-company">Fidelity's 2023 Retiree Healthcare Cost Estimate</a>, a single individual can spend an average of $157,000 on medical expenses and healthcare throughout retirement. For couples, that climbs to $315,000."In 2022, despite the fact that neither of us had anything terribly wrong with us, we spent over $6,000 on premiums and medical bills," Dukinfield said. "We're like, 'this is insanity.'"In Vicenza, Dukinfield said she and her husband spend between $1,500 and $1,600 yearly on healthcare costs. The Schwendemans said they pay about $2,800 yearly while in Clavesana.<div type="image" title="Vincenza, a city in Italy." height="2286" width="3476" msid="109857173" hostid="261" sizebytes="1376582"></div>Dukinfield also said the US political climate played a role in her decision to move to Italy.The United States is gearing up for presidential elections in November. It's expected to be another tight race between Donald Trump, who is facing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-found-contempt-of-court-in-ny-fined-threatens-jail-2024-4">ongoing legal troubles</a>, and President Joe Biden, who is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-polling-needs-to-get-popular-again-quickly-drop-out-2023-12">struggling to rally the kind of support</a> he had in 2020.Colin Esaw, 59, felt the repercussions of the political and cultural divisions while living in Florida, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-ron-desantis-failed-presidential-campaign-border-security-social-media-2024-3">especially under Gov. Ron DeSantis</a>, who ran against Trump in the Republican primaries.Esaw was raised in Ireland before his career led him to Orlando in the fall of 1994. He's remained in the area for 30 years, holding American and British passports. He told BI that he began noticing a change in recent years."When I first came to America, I had no plans on living or being here any longer than I needed to be because of a preconceived idea of what American people were like," Esaw said. "When I got here, I couldn't believe how friendly and welcoming Americans were. It absolutely stunned me."<div type="image" title="Colin Esaw in Orlando, Florida." height="480" width="360" msid="109857175" hostid="261" sizebytes="31104"></div>Now, Esaw said the political tension is too much. Adding to that the rising cost of living, he said he felt it was time for a change."I don't like to live in a society like that," he said.So, Esaw is preparing to retire in Scalea, a coastal town in the Calabria region, within the next two years. He's purchased a condo for about 55,000 euros, or $59,000.<h2>A growing online community is helping Americans move to Italy</h2>Patrizia Di Gregorio has witnessed the uptick in people, including Americans, looking to retire in Italy firsthand. Gregorio, 52, is an Italian-American who founded the international social network <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.expatslivinginrome.com/">Expats Living in Rome</a> in 2001.The network has become an essential tool for people across the globe eyeing a move to Italy. The organization offers resources for those looking to move, including financial guidance and immigration advice.<div type="image" title="Expats Living in Room website." height="1462" width="2260" msid="109857179" hostid="261" sizebytes="87938"></div>It also offers a community through Facebook groups like <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.facebook.com/expatsinrome">Expats Living in Rome</a> and <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/expatslivinginitaly">Expats Living in Italy</a>, where people can ask questions and share updates on their journeys. The Expats Living in Italy group now has more than 107,000 members.Gregorio told BI she first noticed increased interest from Americans around the COVID-19 pandemic.<div type="image" title="Patrizia Di Gregorio (Expats Living in Rome)" height="1200" width="1200" msid="109857181" hostid="261" sizebytes="59680"></div>"Before COVID, we had a lot of immigration, but after COVID, we can't even keep up," she said. She said that one Facebook group she created had more than 800 requests to join at one point.<h2>Expats said Americans live to work but that in Italy, they work to live</h2><a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mistakes-americans-make-when-moving-to-italy-2024-1">Moving to Italy as an American isn't without challenges</a>.A series of hurdles must be cleared: securing a visa, finding a property, transporting goods across the Atlantic Ocean, applying for necessities like healthcare, and — of course — navigating a language barrier.Both the Schwendemans and Dukinfield are working to become fluent in Italian — which can sometimes make everyday tasks more arduous — but said leaving the United States was the right choice. They cited a better quality of life, which is no longer bogged down by <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hustle-culture-got-america-addicted-to-work">America's unforgiving and overarching hustle culture.</a><div type="image" title="Eric and Christina Schwendeman in Clavesana. " height="2048" width="1536" msid="109857183" hostid="261" sizebytes="389184"></div>"It's the way they approach life," Eric said, referring to Italian culture.In Clavesana, locals take "pausa," a two-hour break each afternoon, which contrasts with the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://quickbooks.intuit.com/time-tracking/resources/lunch-break-survey/">average lunch break in the United States, which is 36 minutes.</a>"You stop working," Eric said. "You go have lunch with your family and your friends."Dukinfield agreed, adding that the slower pace of life and living in a walkable city have been positive changes. Moving to Vicenza has also allowed her to live near her daughter, son-in-law, and grandchild."You can walk to the downtown area," Dukinfield said. "We lived in a very nice house on a nice lot in suburbia [in the US], but the only place we could walk to was the Super America or the Speedway, which was three-quarters of a mile away."The phenomenon Eric described is a popular phrase among US expats: In America, you live to work. In Italy, you work to live."I have to say it's pretty much a total dream," Christina said. "Every morning, we wake up and look outside and say, 'I cannot believe we live here.'"

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