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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Ever since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential elections, bitcoin has been surging, going up over 40% in the last two weeks. Recently, the cryptocurrency soared past $97,000, having risen 8.32% in just the last 7 days, and is currently trading at $96,906.09. The overall crypto market is also buoyant, with the crypto volume jumping 10.06% over the past 24 hours to touch $198.83 billion. The markets are enthused about Bitcoin's prospects going ahead, given that Trump has hinted towards establishing a dedicated role in the White House for deliberating crypto policies. Trump has been vocally pro-crypto and had promised, during his presidential campaign, to scale back <keyword id="24085738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-regulations" source="keywords">crypto regulations</keyword> and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who had initiated a crackdown on digital assets in the US. The crypto lobby in the US has been advocating for crypto-friendly SECs and access to banks. In a bid to do so, crypto companies have pumped in over $119 million to support pro-crypto candidates. Says Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, "Market sentiment grew stronger from Bloomberg's report of Trump’s plan to establish a dedicated White House role for crypto policy. The anticipation of faster regulatory clarity coupled with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options projecting a $176k price target by 2026 has driven BTC’s price to the $95K milestone and beyond." The ongoing rally is not restricted to just bitcoin but also extended to Solana and XRP, which gained 10.85% and 59.02%, respectively, over the last 7 days. But does this mean that good times are coming for <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> as well? Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives &amp; Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that bitcoin is a proxy for risk-taking in the markets. Bitcoin moving up means the risk appetite of investors is rising. Conversely, if it falls, then investors prefer safety." Both Nifty and Sensex have lost over 5% each over the last month. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) have also been scrambling out of Indian markets, having withdrawn Rs 1,14,445.89 crores during October 2024 and offloading Rs 34,348.30 crore so far in November. During trade today, Nifty and Sensex remained in red, with Nifty down by 0.74% and Sensex down by 0.6%. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have been trying to keep the market afloat in both October and November, pumping in Rs 31,636.77 crore in Indian markets in November so far. Last month, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in the Indian markets. According to an NSE report, by the end of the previous quarter, FPIs holding in NSE-listed companies stood at 36.3%, despite the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Previously, FIIs holding in listed companies had hit a record high of 39.9% in December 2021. In contrast, DIIs are increasingly making headway into the Indian markets. Active Domestic Mutual Funds (DMFs) have been increasing their investments in the NSE-listed companies. Their ownership in these companies has risen from 12.4% in December 2021 to 15.7% as of September 30, 2024. Banks and insurance companies have also expanded their market share. Their ownership in NSE-listed companies has grown from 8.8% three years ago to 11% as of pr quarter.

The Bitcoin rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! Does this spell good news for Indian markets?

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

Prabhakar, part of Business Insider's 2024 AI Power List, has headed the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy since 2022. In her role, she advises President Joe Biden on science and technology with a particular focus on AI's risks and benefits. Previously, she was the director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and was the first woman to lead the National Institute of Standards and Technology. She has also worked as an executive for companies such as Raychem and Interval Research and as a venture capitalist for US Venture Partners, focusing on semiconductor and cleantech startups. She also founded the nonprofit Actuate, which manages research to solve societal challenges.See Business Insider's full <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://businessinsider.com/ai-power-list-2024">AI Power List</a>

OSTP director Arati Prabhakar shapes AI policy in Biden administration

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Googlers have been using an internal message board to vent about the election.</li><li>There's just one problem: they aren't allowed to make political posts, so they're being creative.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-workspace-chief-stepping-down-leaked-memo-2024-11">Google</a> employees are, as ever, meme-ing through it.As the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">2024 US election</a> unfolded, Googlers have taken to the company's internal message board — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-io-memes-layoffs-phones-duck-lip-mascot-2023-5">a meme generator named Memegen</a> — to express their feelings.There's just one problem: Google leaders have cracked down on employees making political posts, so staff have been poking fun at the inability to express their views on the election, according to several of the posts seen by Business Insider.One of the top Memegen posts on Wednesday was a picture of a fake newspaper named "The Memegen," with the headline, "Nothing Happened. For the first time in history nothing happened for a whole day."Another read: "It's not a permitted personal political opinion at the workplace unless it comes from the C-suite region of the org chart."Another popular meme showed a scene from Disney's "Raya and the Last Dragon," with the dragon Sisu telling Raya to "Bring your whole self to work." In the meme, Raya asked, "Even my political opinions?" to which Sisu responded, "Not that part."Two former Googlers built Memegen in 2010 as a way for employees to vent about work, life, and even their C-suite. While home to often silly creations, it has long acted as something of a town square for Google's workforce and an effective way to read the temperature of its over 180,000 employees.Earlier this year, after employees used Memegen to share their thoughts on the war in Gaza, Google barred staff from making political posts, several employees told BI. A message on Memegen now reads, "Memegen isn't a place for personal political opinions or statements," according to a picture seen by BI.A Google spokesperson said that the company made and tested these changes in response to employees requesting to make adjustments to its moderation practices and that Googlers have said political topics were distracting.Leaders have been reckoning with an increasingly outspoken workforce in recent years while fending off perceptions it is politically biased. In 2018, right-wing news site Breitbart <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/12/technology/leaked-google-video-trump.html">posted a video from an internal Google town hall</a> where leaders expressed dismay over Donald Trump's election as president. In the meeting, Google cofounder Sergey Brin called Trump's election "deeply offensive."Google CEO Sundar Pichai sent a memo to employees on Monday thanking them for their hard work ahead of the election and saying that Google should be a "trusted source of information" for everyone, according to a copy reviewed by BI. The memo also asked staff to abide by company guidelines against conducting political activity on company time.Are you a current or former Google employee? Got something to share? You can reach the reporter Hugh Langley via the encrypted messaging app Signal (+1 628-228-1836) or email (<a target="_blank" href="mailto:hlangley@businessinsider.com">hlangley@businessinsider.com</a>).

Googlers poke fun at a policy against making election memes — by making memes

The Karnataka government is considering proposals to allow tents and <keyword id="21356640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="alcohol-sales" source="keywords">alcohol sales</keyword> on the state's beaches, similar to <keyword id="19895061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Goa" source="keywords">Goa</keyword>, in an effort to boost tourism. Speaking at the 'Connect 2024' event in <keyword id="19936741" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mangalore" source="keywords">Mangalore</keyword> on Wednesday, Rajendra K V, tourism department's director, emphasised that changes are necessary to attract tourists. "We need to relax restrictions on alcohol consumption along the beaches of Karnataka, which may bring more influx of tourists just like in the state of Goa," he added. According to him, to enhance safety and encourage people to spend more time at the beaches during the night, the department is contemplating the installation of additional lights along the coast. District officials have been instructed to identify government and private lands near beaches to promote <keyword id="23668481" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tent-tourism" source="keywords">tent tourism</keyword> in the state. Rajendra also revealed that a facilitation centre would soon be established to expedite approvals for tourism projects, including CRZ (<keyword id="20495401" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Coastal-Regulation-Zone" source="keywords">Coastal Regulation Zone</keyword>) permissions. He added that the new <keyword id="20021259" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tourism-policy" source="keywords">tourism policy</keyword> will include specific guidelines for coastal tourism. Deputy Commissioner of Dakshina Kannada, Mullai Muhilan, said tourists should be allowed access to beaches late at night. "Restaurant and licensed business operating hours in Mangalore city have already been extended to 1 am and the same should apply to the beaches as well," he added. He further stated that discussions would be held with the police department to resolve issues regarding the current restrictions on <keyword id="22266283" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="beach-access" source="keywords">beach access</keyword> after 9 pm and appropriate action would be taken.

Karnataka to go Goa way and allow alcohol sales in coastal cities to lure tourists

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's win has upped the risk of a dire economic scenario, Nouriel Roubini says.</li><li>His policies could lead to stagflation, a fate experts have said is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-outlook-gdp-dimon-inflation-rate-cuts-2024-4">worse than recession</a>.</li></ul>Donald Trump's proposed economic agenda raises the risk of one of the worst-case scenarios for the US economy, according to Wall Street's "Dr. Doom" economist.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/who-is-nouriel-roubini-dr-doom-economy-recession-financial-crisis-2023-4">Nouriel Roubini</a>, the top economist known for his bombastic and frequently bearish prognostications, said he foresaw a challenging environment for the economy once Trump begins his second term as president. That's because Trump's proposed policies could spark a period of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-outlook-gdp-dimon-inflation-rate-cuts-2024-4">stagflation</a> for the economy, Roubini said, a situation some economic experts have described as even worse than a recession. In such a scenario, the economy would see a period of sluggish growth, soaring prices, high interest rates, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-stagflation-disaster-high-prices-inflation-high-unemployment-2022-3#:~:text=Normally%2C%20during%20a%20recession%20or,the%20corresponding%20relief%20on%20costs.">rising unemployment</a>.Roubini pointed to Trump's plans to levy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">steep tariffs</a> on Chinese goods, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, implement "draconian" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">restrictions on immigration</a>, and potentially <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-control-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-tariffs-inflation-2024-9">erode some of the Fed's independence</a>."If they were to follow those latter types of stagflationary policies, inflation will be higher, growth will be lower, bond yields will be higher because there is more inflation and more real rates with unsustainable deficits," Roubini said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-11-12/economist-roubini-says-bond-vigilantes-may-curb-trump-policies?srnd=phx-technology">Bloomberg</a> on Monday. "That's going to crowd economic growth, and bond yields above 5% would imply a correction of stock prices and negative impacts on the economy."Other experts have warned some of Trump's policies could lead to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">higher inflation and interest rates</a>, with his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-uncertainty-trump-presidency-inflation-tariffs-2024-11">tariff plan</a> attracting significant <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-economy-outlook-inflation-job-market-election-paul-krugman-2024-10">criticism</a> from economists. Trump implemented tariffs during his first term without a significant increase in inflation, but forecasts are different this time around given that his proposals are much more sweeping, with tariffs targeting not just China but the rest of the world as well. Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies will stoke higher prices. In August, the president-elect swore his policies would <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://lower.In">lower inflation</a>. In the week leading up to the election, Taylor Rogers, a Republican National Committee spokesperson, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">told BI in a statement</a> that Trump would "once again cut taxes and unleash American energy to lower prices on groceries and other goods."But Roubini, who has warned of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stagflation-debt-crisis-crash-federal-reserve-2022-12">stagflationary crisis</a> in recent years, has insisted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dr-doom-roubini-trump-stagflation-tariff-immigration-dollar-inflation-recession-2024-10#:~:text=Stagflation%20occurs%20when%20inflation%20keeps,that%20tumbles%20into%20this%20situation.&amp;text=Typically%2C%20central%20banks%20lower%20interest,away%20if%20prices%20keep%20rising.">stagflation risks</a> will rise during Trump's presidency. Prior to Trump's election win, Roubini said the cost of tariffs could be passed onto consumers, and that restricting immigration could chip away one of the economy's main catalysts for growth.Trump following through with all of his proposals would also likely increase the federal debt balance by nearly $10 trillion over the next decade, Roubini estimated. "The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">Fed will have to cut less</a>, maybe eventually stop sooner," Roubini said of interest rates, adding that the Fed could potentially even raise interest rates if stagflation sets in. "And then the Fed and Trump will be on a collision course."Still, Roubini acknowledged uncertainties with the economic outlook. Some of Trump's policies — like his plans to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">loosen regulation</a> — could prop up business activity and fuel growth, Roubini noted.Markets also may be optimistic that they'll be able to reign in the future president by staging a selloff in bonds and equities, Roubini said. Other commentators have noted Trump is likely to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-policies-tax-cuts-inflation-government-debt-deficit-jeremy-siegel-2024-11">appease stock and bond investors</a> to avoid upsetting a booming market. "I think markets are still in a wait-and-see to figure out whether the policies are going to be hurting the economy," Roubini said. "Maybe the markets believe that the market discipline is going to discipline hin in advance, knowing that policies are not sustainable, are going to lead to bond market vigilantes and the stock market punishing him."Stocks took off in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-crosses-6000-level-investors-cheer-trump-2024-11">record-setting rally</a> last week after Trump secured his election victory. US stocks saw around $20 billion in inflows on Wednesday, according to Bank of America, the largest single-day stock purchasing boom in five months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-44000-key-cpi-inflation-data-2024-11">closed at records on Monday. </a>

Trump's policies could usher in stagflation and send stock prices plummeting, 'Dr. Doom' economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The small-cap-heavy Russell 2000 jumped as much as 5% on Wednesday after Donald Trump's victory.</li><li>Small-caps stand to benefit from Trump's protectionist trade and deregulation policies.</li></ul>Small-cap stocks have taken off after Donald Trump secured a second term in the White House.The <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/ishares_russell_2000_etf_cert_deposito_arg_repr_01_sh-stock?miRedirects=1">Russell 2000</a> surged as much as 5% on Wednesday. The index tracks small-cap companies, which are seen as major beneficiaries of a Trump presidency. The index is now up roughly 17% year-to-date.The Trump administration's protectionist plan is at least partially designed to protect domestic business. Throughout his campaign, Trump has promised double-digit tariffs on virtually all US exports, citing that China could face as much as a 60% tax rate.In a note ahead of the election, JPMorgan also noted that small-caps could benefit under Trump due to deregulation and possible tax cuts targeting domestic-oriented businesses.Small-caps were not the only <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-truth-social-djt-tesla-stock-crypto-election-energy-2024-11">sector to jump after Trump's victory</a>.Financial stocks also gained on the prospect of easier regulation and tax cuts. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance on cryptocurrency sent <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-truth-social-djt-tesla-stock-crypto-election-energy-2024-11">bitcoin soaring to fresh record high</a>.Amid market losers, however, were clean-energy stocks, with stocks such as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/plug-stock">Plug Power</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/run-stock">SunRun</a> falling over 10% in pre-market trading. Concern has mounted that the president-elect could try to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act that provides tax credits to renewable-energy firms.

The market's smallest stocks are rocketing higher with Trump's protectionist policies seen favoring domestic operators

In 2024, many professionals are letting go of "hustle-culture" and are leaning towards prioritising their health and personal life. <keyword id="19901232" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="work-life-balance" source="keywords">Work-life balance</keyword> is being talked about a lot and people are quick to label working culture of a company as toxic if something doesn't sit right with them. Something similar happened with a British CEO, who denied her employee's two-day wedding leave and put up a post about it on social media. Tickner, who heads a marketing company, posted on Threads about her decision, but instead of gaining support, she found herself in the middle of a <keyword id="20638490" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="social-media-storm" source="keywords">social media storm</keyword>. <h2>CEO's post goes viral</h2>Tickner’s post, which has since gone viral with over 3 million views, led to accusations of creating a <keyword id="20707311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="toxic-workplace" source="keywords">toxic workplace</keyword> and ‘rage baiting’—posting controversial content to provoke strong reactions. She explained that her employee had already taken 2.5 weeks off and had failed to train someone to cover for them during their wedding, leaving the team with two crucial projects to manage. In her post, Tickner said she had asked the employee to “find a replacement” and train them on their daily tasks before taking any further leave. She also threw in a confusing statement: “With our <keyword id="23637832" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="unlimited-time-off" source="keywords">unlimited time off</keyword> policy, don’t ask next time!” leaving readers scratching their heads over the true nature of her company’s leave policy. <div type="image" title="google (15)" msid="114449887" hostid="261"></div> <h2>Unlimited leave, or not?</h2> Tickner attempted to clarify her company’s <keyword id="23637833" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Flexible-Time-Off" source="keywords">Flexible Time Off</keyword> policy, which she claimed allows employees to set their own work hours, work from anywhere, and take time off when they choose. However, this policy seemed at odds with her denial of the wedding leave, leading to further criticism. Under this supposedly flexible system, Tickner explained, “A-players don’t respect slackers,” implying that those who take too much time off lose respect within the team. However, her statements only deepened the confusion, as people struggled to reconcile the concept of ‘unlimited time off’ with her actions. <h2>"Typical Corporate," says internet</h2> It didn’t take long for social media users to pick apart her logic. Many pointed out the contradiction in her demanding the employee train a replacement while boasting about the simplicity of her team’s processes. Tickner’s attempts to defend herself—by claiming that most tasks could wait until the employee returned—did little to calm the backlash. One user said, “That’s right, don’t ask next time! She should just tell you that she needs the two days off no matter what. She should tell you next time, not ask. And isn’t finding a replacement your responsibility? Typical corporate." Another user commented that it is the manager's job to ensure that people are able to take their time off, "Well… what if everyone in the team declines to cover for them? Now my “unlimited PTO” is suddenly dependent on whether a colleague is willing to cover for me, which is a terrible idea, unless you have a reasonable, realistic system that incentivizes folks to cover for someone else. In my team - although we don’t have unlimited PTO and people are provided 26 days of PTO (excl. sick leave) - it’s the managers job to make sure people are able to take their time off," they wrote. There are many more reactions on the post and people are calling out the CEO continuously for her posts.

'Typical corporate': CEO boasts about denying 2-day wedding leave to employee, gets schooled on social media

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's policies may impact legal immigrants in tech, sparking fears of a worker shortage.</li><li>In his last term, Trump paused some work visa programs used by tech firms to hire skilled talent.</li></ul>Many in the tech industry are concerned that President Donald Trump will make it harder to hire immigrants, sapping an important source of technical talent for the sector."If the backlash against immigrants impacts the flow of really talented people into the country, that's probably not good for us overall," said Michael Greeley, a general partner at Flare Capital Partners, a healthcare technology investor.Trump's election win could lead to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">mass deportations of </a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">undocumented immigrants.</a> Trump's campaign has also promised to complete the southern border wall and revive the "<a target="_blank" href="https://time.com/7022828/trump-travel-ban-refugees-gaza/">famous</a> travel ban," which restricted people from countries that were predominately Muslim to enter the US. This order <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/30/donald-trump-travel-ban-tech-workers-muslim-immigration">left many tech workers</a> stranded outside of the US in 2017.What's less understood is how the president-elect will shape a legal immigration system that pipes high-skilled workers from outside the US into coveted tech jobs.It's hard to estimate the number of legal immigrants working in the tech sector due to the variety of visa types available to them. The H-1B visa program is the nation's largest temporary work visa program, with over 600,000 workers across 50,000 employers. According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/OLA_Signed_H-1B_Characteristics_Congressional_Report_FY2023.pdf">USCIS data</a>, the majority of petitions approved in the previous fiscal year, 65%, went to workers in computer-related roles.The new year should bring clarity on H-1Bs, said Hiba Mona Anver, a Silicon Valley-based immigration attorney who works with tech startups. In the meantime, she and other attorneys say they're getting on the phone with clients."I wouldn't go as far as to say that I'm sensing anxiety per se," Anver said, but there is "a sense of the need to prepare.""Trump doesn't have a great track record of supporting the visas that are critical to startup founders and early employees who want to build companies in the US," said Jenny Fielding, cofounder and managing partner of Everywhere Ventures, which invests globally.In his first term, Trump fashioned himself as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.uscis.gov/archive/buy-american-and-hire-american-putting-american-workers-first">"Buy American, Hire American"</a> president. He signed an executive order to suspend some temporary work visas like the H-1B for skilled workers, a move that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-to-feel-impact-trumps-h-1b-visa-order-2020-6">hit tech hardest</a>. His administration saw an increase of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-h-1b-visa-applications-rejected-under-trump-2019-2">denial rates</a> for visa applications and more requests for evidence seeking further proof of workers' eligibility."From 2016 to 2020, the average denial rate for H1-B visas was over 17%, compared to just 3.2% under President Biden," said Palo Alto-based immigration attorney Sophie Alcorn.Under stricter immigration laws, the tech industry could snap back to a pandemic-era worker shortage, especially for companies at the frontier. Experts told Business Insider the sector <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-workers-real-winners-ai-talent-war-pay-2024-7">is already understaffed</a>, and recruiting for artificial intelligence skills is particularly tough as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-the-ai-hiring-frenzy-big-tech-talent-war-2024-3">every company scrambles to hire workers</a> capable of leading them into the future.Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer of CBIZ, a Cleveland-based financial advisory, previously told Business Insider, "You shouldn't ban exports on chips and then completely export the talented labor. That makes no sense."Aaron Levie, the chief executive of Box and one of Silicon Valley's senior statesmen, offered hope that Elon Musk, at Trump's side, could bring a fresh approach to the issue."Our high skilled immigration system is frozen in time and not responsive to the market," Levie <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/levie/status/1854733432410325002">posted</a> on social media site X. "We have far more demand for the top talent to work for and start companies here than we let in. It's a bipartisan issue that politicians don't touch. Someone like Elon finally could do it."Musk, a strong supporter of Trump and who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-could-help-deregulate-tech-amid-a-trump-victory-2024-11">could be considered for a role</a> in the administration, replied, "I agree."The AI skills gap is so severe that tech firms are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-companies-raid-top-university-campuses-rare-artificial-intelligence-talent-2023-4">scouring university programs</a>, enticing students with six-figure salaries and resources far beyond what academia can offer.In podcast interviews over the years, Trump has also discussed the importance of attracting the best and brightest. He even suggested during an appearance on the tech-favorite podcast "All-In" in June that non-US students who graduate from US colleges <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-foreign-college-graduates-should-automatically-get-green-cards-2024-06-20/">should get green cards</a>.There could be reasons for optimism for the tech industry given newer figures in Trump's orbit, Alcorn noted. Vice President-elect JD Vance has a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-venture-capital-opioid-nonprofit-tech-record-ohio-senate-2021-8">venture capital background</a>, and Musk is an immigrant himself <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/us/elon-musk-immigration-washington-post-cec/index.html">who has said</a> he was on an H1-B visa previously.<div type="image" title="Elon Musk and Donald Trump shake hands" height="683" width="911" msid="115143545" hostid="261" sizebytes="27914"></div>Chris Farmer, founder of SignalFire, an early-stage investor, said tech elites like Vance and Musk will "have his ear" on setting a new standard for high-skilled immigration, though for how long is uncertain.The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.One visa holder told Business Insider she expects H-1Bs will become more difficult to obtain under Trump.Shin Yi Chong, who received her H1-B visa in 2019, was recently laid off from her tech job as a product manager. After living in the US for roughly a decade, she said she now has weeks to find a new job or face deportation."Just seeing historical data from what happened when Trump was in office the last time," she said, "I don't foresee it changing in a positive direction."Shubhangi Goel and Riddhi Kanetkar contributed reporting.

You Searched For "policies" and got 12 results

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