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<ul class="summary-list"><li>An uptick in personal care spending could be a sign US consumers are feeling more confident.</li><li>Better-than-expected retail sales last month point to a coming "treat yourself economy."</li></ul>Long, flowing locks and perfectly pampered skin are signs the economy is on the up and up — or at least, US consumers are acting like it.An uptick in retail sales and personal care spending in recent months suggests people are increasingly treating themselves to some of the luxuries they may have been forgoing amid <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/weird-indicators-a-recession-could-be-coming-finance-experts-2024-9">recent recession concerns</a> and inflation troubles.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-retail-sales-tsmc-earnings-labor-market-fed-2024-10?_gl=1*1qicc5r*_ga*NzMwNzE5NTcwLjE2ODQ4ODM1NDg.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTgxNDc3NS4xNDM1LjEuMTcyOTgxNTA0MC4yMC4wLjA.">Retail sales rose</a> in August, according to federal data — clocking in a 1.4% gain from the same period last year. That was a better read than economists had expected.Those rising numbers point to a trend that Washington Post reporter Heather Long dubbed the "treat yourself economy" in a conversation with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace/visa-seekers-in-china-weigh-in-on-the-u-s-election/">Marketplace</a> last week."This feels like the year of the mini splurge," Long told the outlet. "That's a really healthy sign for the economy."Buyers often reward themselves for enduring tough economic times by upgrading their personal goods and services selections, Peter C. Earle, senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, told Business Insider.Long pointed to one example of such a "reward" — the "Utah hair trend," which has exploded on TikTok and other social media platforms in recent weeks after being popularized by the stars of Hulu's hit reality series "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-frankie-paul-mayci-neeley-mormon-wives-interview-business-influencing-2024-9">The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives</a>."Some women are spending up to $2,000 for human hair extensions and styling services to achieve the perfect waist-length waves, a hairstylist recently told The Wall Street Journal.It's an expensive trend that may have been less achievable a year or two ago when personal care spending was down nationwide.During <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-risk-soft-landing-labor-unemployment-rate-consumer-confidence-2024-10">recessions</a> or economic downturns, consumer behavior in personal care shifts toward an essentials-only posture, with people prioritizing necessities such as soap and shampoo over more specialized items, Earle said.The "lipstick effect" is an economic theory that posits sales of affordable luxuries, such as lipstick, rise during recessions as people seek an "emotional lift without breaking the bank," Earle said.As the economy begins to recover, consumers generally regain confidence and increase their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retailers-showing-squeezed-us-shoppers-have-two-very-different-realities-2024-8">discretionary spending patterns,</a> happily adding more than just lipstick to their shopping carts, Earle said.In the second quarter of 2024, US consumers spent more than $200 billion on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-beauty-products-upflation-strategies-procter-gamble-inflation-rising-prices-2024-7">personal care products</a>, up from $199 billion in the first quarter and $193 billion in the second quarter of 2023, according to September data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis adjusted at annual rates."There is a notable shift from basic or low-priced necessities toward the more indulgent products and services," Earle said. "Consumers are more willing to spend on the luxury or higher-quality personal care items they avoided during the downturn, such as high-end hair care or designer skincare goods."

Welcome to the 'treat yourself' economy — where skincare and long hair rule  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Recessions are notoriously difficult to predict.</li><li>But unemployment rates and inverted yield curves aren't the only way to watch for a recession.</li></ul>Financial hand-ringing abounds these days as money managers and consumers alike eye <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/are-we-in-a-recession">a potential recession.</a>But recessions are notoriously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2019/q1/eiq119-predicting-recessions.pdf">difficult for economists to predict</a>.Official recession indicators are mounting. Two recession indicators — the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-indicator-economy-inverted-yield-curve-campbell-harvey-fed-unemployment-2024-6">inverted yield curve</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-outlook-indicator-triggered-unemployment-rate-jobs-report-2024-8">the SAHM Rule</a> — are flashing red. But earlier this year, financial bigwigs admitted that they got their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-ray-dalio-us-economy-recession-predictions-wrong-wsj-2024-3">previous predictions wrong</a> — for now.But for the less market-inclined money watcher, there are several simpler, stranger signs that could also point to a coming downturn.Business Insider spoke to financial experts about the weird — and often imperfect — recession indicators they keep an eye out for in times of trouble."Few if any of these informal indicators are conclusive on their own, and some may simply signal changes in consumption patterns," said Peter C. Earle, senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. "The confluence of many at once, however, can be indicative of a souring macroeconomic trend."<h2 id="388d0245-492c-45e1-a60d-546f9ed4cb93">Lipstick sales</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lipstick-index-explained-how-makeup-sales-could-forecast-recession-2022-8#:~:text=Back%20in%202001%2C%20when%20the,worse%2C%20lipstick%20sales%20got%20better.">The Lipstick Effect</a> is one of the more well-known wacky recession indicators. The rule equates an increase in lipstick sales to a downturn in people's purchasing power, a sign that often points to a recession ahead, Aaliyah Kissick, CEO of Financial Literacy Diaries and a Gen Z money expert, told BI.Lipstick most often stands in as the titular item in the economic theory, but the rule effectively operates as an example of the substitution effect, positing that as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-consumer-spending-hard-landing-inflation-slowdown-2024-6">people lose the ability to buy</a> themselves big-ticket luxury items during difficult financial times, they turn toward smaller, more affordable luxury because it represents a "small win," Kissick said.Along with an uptick in lipstick sales, a sales increase in similarly small items like nail polish could also point to financial troubles, Joe Camberato, CEO of NationalBusinessCapital.com, told BI.The theory has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beauty-shoppers-still-spending-big-as-us-consumers-cut-elsewhere-2023-3">played out</a> several times throughout history, including ahead of the 2008 recession.<h2 id="9b3867ce-4d1e-4e2b-8fdd-cc1f5c08a572">Strippers' tips</h2>Exotic dancers are often among the first group of people to warn of a coming recession, Kissick said, lending credence to another predictive theory: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://theface.com/society/strippers-recession-stripping-adult-industry-porn-politics-economy">The Stripper Index.</a>Kissick pointed to strippers' tips as a microcosm for elastic goods. The elasticity of a product refers to how changing prices may or may not trigger changing demand.Coffee, for example, is an inelastic good. Even as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coffee-prices-increases-inflation-drought-frost-2022-8">prices rise</a>, people continue to buy it because they just aren't willing to go without it. The fact that caffeine is an addictive substance means people won't change their demand for coffee even in tough economic times.But where a typical white-collar worker isn't willing to forgo coffee during a recession, he may be more likely to ditch the after-hours entertainment, or he'll tip his performers less, Kissick said.The theory can more broadly be applied to any service industry that operates with a tipping culture, Earle said."As a lot of people in the food service industry have noticed lately, a decrease in restaurant tipping suggests that consumers are reducing discretionary spending — whether because of rising unemployment, the debilitating effect of inflation, or both," he added.<div type="image" title="A stripper pole with a crumpled-up dollar bill as a tip." height="1272" width="2357" msid="112994375" hostid="261" sizebytes="67034"></div><h2 id="04bc0b6c-49ff-4d94-9497-8916eef21a65">Dating app usage</h2>When people's finances are flourishing, they often engage in romance via in-person activities, going out for dinner and drinks with potential partners who they've met out and about while spending their money, Kissick said.But when a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2008/12/recession-leads-to-surge-in-online-dating">recession looms</a>, dating apps may see a surplus of users and an uptick in activity as people increasingly rely on the internet to meet new people."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/restaurants-america-eating-out-crisis-your-fault-labor-shortage-tipping-2024-2">Dining out</a> is another elastic good and one of the first things to go," Kissick said. "When we're out in public less often, we're less likely to meet our soulmate, so we turn to dating apps."The New York Times <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/fashion/12dating.html">reported</a> in 2009 that online matchmakers were seeing a surge in interest even amid the drudge of the 2008 financial crisis.Online dating is an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rising-cost-dating-millennials-gen-z-soaring-cost-love-apps-2024-8">inexpensive way to meet people</a>, and unemployed people tend to have more time on their hands, the outlet reported at the time.<h2 id="9c0df9d3-5935-4296-a21f-20e306151c64">Business disputes</h2>Trouble in middle-market paradise may also be a recession indicator, said Michael Platner, a corporate finance attorney and strategist at Lewis Brisbois.Platner pointed to an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-corporate-bankruptcies-fed-rate-cuts-consumer-retail-spending-fisker-2024-7">uptick in private company insolvencies</a>, partner fights, and business disputes as common recession harbingers. Difficult financial times often require business owners to take decisive action, which can reveal a partner or executive who isn't able to handle the new pressures, extra hours, or less cash, he said."In hard times, it's not uncommon for simmering partner issues to come to the top and for one partner to blame the other for not pulling their weight," he told BI.Law firms are perhaps especially primed to look for business disputes. The International Bar Association <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ibanet.org/preparing-for-a-global-economic-downturn-the-outlook-for-in-house-counsel">wrote</a> last year that "issues can arise or intensify in regard" to a company's workforce during difficult economic times.Corporate bankruptcies, meanwhile, jumped by 30% from 2022 to 2023, Reuters <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/us-business-bankruptcies-rose-30-court-stats-show-2023-10-26/">reported</a> last year.<h2 id="f18372df-c244-403e-a2c7-fcc77dac04ee">Men's underwear</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mens-underwear-index-economy-indicator-2014-9">The Men's Underwear Index</a> posits that a decline in men's underwear sales indicates budget-tightening on non-visible essentials, potentially pointing to a recession, Earle told BI.Made famous by former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, the theory suggests men stop buying new underwear during difficult financial times because it's a garment most people won't actually see on a day-to-day basis.The underwear indicator is far from foolproof but has proven true in some past recessions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-signs-unusual-clues-lipstick-underwear-index-2023-4">Men's underwear sales fell</a> in 2008 and 2009, Business Insider previously reported, as well as during the COVID-19 pandemic.<div type="image" title="Underwear for sale are pictured at an Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co store in Pasadena, California March 3, 2015. Abercrombie &amp; Fitch is slated to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2014 results on Wednesday. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni " height="533" width="800" msid="112994384" hostid="261" sizebytes="24744"></div><h2 id="853b973d-e067-4035-83bf-381053f561c3">Pawn shop boom</h2>An increase in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/personal-loans/what-is-a-pawn-shop-loan">pawn shop activity </a>can suggest financial strain, as the stores offer desperate people a chance to make some quick cash, Earle said.Inventory at pawn shops typically balloons during difficult times while sales dip. USA Today <a target="_blank" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/24/pawnshops-tell-different-economic-story-than-biden/72881561007/">reported</a> in March that pawn shops were witnessing a "glut" of inventory, indicating people don't have much cash on hand.Similarly, rising sales at dollar stores or increased activity at secondhand stores are also signs that consumers are cutting back, Earle said.Back in 1990, the Los Angeles Times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-12-25-me-7046-story.html">reported</a> that pawnbrokers are traditionally a trustworthy recession predictor. During some historical recessions and depressions, lines have formed outside pawn shops as people seek out loans.

Lipstick sales and strippers' tips: 6 weird indicators a recession could be coming  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>De-dollarization has begun as recent trade deals elevate other currencies, Peter Earle wrote.</li><li>But the dollar is likely to remain a top global currency, according to the economist.</li></ul>De-dollarization has begun as recent trade deals elevate rivals, but the greenback is likely to remain a global currency, according to economist Peter C. Earle.He pointed to last month's deal between China and Brazil to settle trade in each other's currencies, noting that it's the latest example of a growing trend.Writing in the <a href="https://www.aier.org/article/de-dollarization-has-begun/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">American Institute for Economic Research</a> last week, Earle added that use of the dollar in "economic warfare" as well as "error-fraught monetary policy regimes" are driving countries away from the greenback."And slower or more quickly, the dollar will lose ground abroad," he said.But in <a href="https://www.aier.org/article/de-dollarization-has-begun-redux/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a follow-up post</a> on Tuesday, Earle added that while rivals make gains, the dollar is still likely to remain a global currency."First, barring a truly extraordinary event or series of developments, a scenario in which the dollar is no longer used (at all) in international trade is highly unlikely," he said. He cited the vast size of the US economy and the breadth of its trading relationships, adding that there are high barriers to exit as well as high costs for switching currencies. Such a shift would take decades, if not generations, he said.Meanwhile, despite China's efforts to elevate the yuan on the world stage and replace the dollar, Earle is highly skeptical."Even beyond the decades that such a change would probably take, the likelihood of the yuan becoming the global reserve currency ranges between profoundly unlikely to essentially impossible," he wrote. Earle's note comes as China has actively established agreements with countries such as Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Laos and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/china-says-it-will-set-up-yuan-clearing-arrangements-brazil-2023-02-07/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brazil</a> to use the yuan for cross-border transactions, replacing the dollar.The renminbi has overtaken the dollar as the most used foreign currency in Russia, especially as the country <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russian-economy-dependent-china-yuan-dollar-currency-putin-xi-sanctions-2023-4?_gl=1*128rn6c*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY4MTMxNDczMC4xMzkuMS4xNjgxMzE3NzI3LjYwLjAuMA..">improves its ties with China</a> since being cut off from global finance after its invasion of Ukraine.But the yuan is poorly suited to become the world's central currency, as it is virtually pegged to the dollar, Earle said. The yuan is only allowed to trade in a 2% range against a midpoint determined daily by China's central bank.Alongside the fact that Chinese authorities also decide on what capital can flow out of the country, this makes the yuan unreceptive to free market flows."These (and a handful of other characteristics) are simply not conducive to establishing a currency that will be used as a unit of account, medium of exchange, and/or basis for settlement in countless international transactions daily," he wrote. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya also described de-dollarization concerns as a "<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/chamath-palihapitiya-de-dollarization-dollar-vs-yuan-china-renminbi-nothingburger-2023-4?_gl=1*k46ofv*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY4MTMxNDczMC4xMzkuMS4xNjgxMzE1NjQwLjYwLjAuMA..">nothingburger</a>," and cited similar reasons in arguing that the yuan would not become the dominant currency.Meanwhile, Carson Group <a href="https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/3-reasons-the-dollar-isnt-going-away-anytime-soon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">noted</a> that the dollar would be around for a while, pointing to the world's proven trust in it and its prominence in international trade.

De-dollarization has started, but the odds that China's yuan will take over are 'profoundly unlikely to essentially impossible'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bangladesh will pay Russia $318 million worth of yuan for a loan payment on a nuclear power plant.</li><li>Western sanctions on Moscow prevented Bangladesh from paying in US dollars.</li></ul>Bangladesh has agreed to pay Russia about $318 million worth of Chinese yuan for a loan payment on a nuclear power plant.Western sanctions imposed on Moscow last year for its war on Ukraine prevented Bangladesh from paying in US dollars, which is the predominant currency for cross-border transactions.Russia, whose state-owned Rosatom is building the nuclear plant, had initially insisted on payment in rubles and refused yuan due to concern over potential conversion losses, <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bangladesh-to-pay-russia-300-million-in-yuan-for-nuclear-plant-1.1908937#:~:text=Bangladesh%20to%20Pay%20Russia%20%24300%20Million%20in%20Yuan%20for%20Nuclear%20Plant,-Arun%20Devnath%2C%20Bloomberg&amp;text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20Bangladesh%20has%20agreed,officials%20familiar%20with%20the%20matter." target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Bloomberg</a>. But a representative for Rosatom confirmed to the Washington Post that the l<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/17/bangladesh-russia-yuan-china-loan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">oan payment will be made in yuan</a>.The payment is partial reimbursement for a $12 billion loan the South Asian country previously received from Moscow, and will help fund a nuclear power plant near the capital city of Dhaka.It'll be facilitated using China's Cross-border Interbank Payment System, which Beijing launched in 2015 to help elevate the yuan and erode the dollar's dominance. Russia was banned last year from the rival <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-swift-ban-not-most-effective-sanction-experts-2022-3">SWIFT payment system</a>. Bangladesh's yuan payment is the latest example of de-dollarization. Others countries have also looked to non-dollar options as sanctions against Russia, such as the freezing of its foreign-currency reserves, have exposed <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-dominance-dedollarization-china-yuan-trade-russia-sanctions-ray-dalio-2023-4">fresh risks in holding dollar assets</a>.Meanwhile, China is pursuing trade deals that emphasize non-dollar transactions and has agreed to use the yuan in cross-border trades with countries such as Brazil and Kazakhstan.But the greenback is likely to remain a global currency <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-renminbi-dollar-vs-yuan-takeover-china-russia-usd-2023-4">even as de-dollarization has begun</a>, economist Peter C. Earle said earlier this month.Writing in the <a href="https://www.aier.org/article/de-dollarization-has-begun/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">American Institute for Economic Research</a>, he said use of the dollar in "economic warfare" as well as "error-fraught monetary policy regimes" are driving countries away from the greenback.Still, he's highly skeptical of China's efforts to elevate the yuan on the world stage and replace the dollar, saying, "Even beyond the decades that such a change would probably take, the likelihood of the yuan becoming the global reserve currency ranges between profoundly unlikely to essentially impossible."

Bangladesh to pay Russia $300 million in Chinese yuan for a nuclear plant loan

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Dollar collapse fears are bogus as the greenback can't be replaced anytime soon, Brad McMillan said.</li><li>A lot of the talk is often from doomsayers trying to push gold, Commonwealth Financial's CIO said.</li></ul>Fears that the US dollar will crash are completely overblown as the greenback cannot be replaced anytime soon, the CIO of Commonwealth Financial Network wrote in a recent <a href="https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer/the-case-against-the-collapse-of-the-dollar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blog post</a>. Brad McMillan acknowledged that he has been getting a flood questions about the dollar in recent weeks, largely asking whether its value will collapse and render savings worthless. But that can't happen in the short to medium term, he added."As long as the US is the largest open trading economy, as long as everyone in the world wants access to the US economy, and as long as it is a lot of work and a great inconvenience to switch, the position of the dollar as the global reserve currency is secure," he wrote Tuesday.McMillan pointed out that even while China has been trying to elevate the yuan to challenge the dollar, its government still holds more than a trillion dollar of US assets.In his view, there are three key factors in the dollar's favor: the sheer size of the US economy, the freely convertible nature of the dollar (unlike the yuan), and the relative political and economic stability of the US compared with both Europe and China."When you look at all the pieces, the US dollar is not only the established choice and, in most cases, the smart choice, but it is the only choice," he said. "There really is no alternative."<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/chamath-palihapitiya-de-dollarization-dollar-vs-yuan-china-renminbi-nothingburger-2023-4?_gl=1*9nvd5m*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY4MTQ5ODkxMC4xNTIuMS4xNjgxNDk4OTQyLjI4LjAuMA..">Chamath Palihapitiya</a> and economist <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-renminbi-dollar-vs-yuan-takeover-china-russia-usd-2023-4?_gl=1*z2wctl*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY4MTQ5NjUwNy4xNTEuMS4xNjgxNDk2ODc0LjYwLjAuMA..">Peter C. Earle</a> have separately argued against de-dollarization, pointing to China's tight control over the yuan.Still, de-dollarization concerns have been rising, especially as some countries recently introduced non-dollar trading arrangements. For instance, China and Brazil have agreed to shed the dollar in cross-border transactions, Russia is relying more on the yuan, and some oil contracts have been priced in non-dollar currencies. But the dollar isn't collapsing and is instead trading at about the same level against other currencies as it has been for the past several decades, McMillan said."Frankly, a lot of the talk is nonsense designed to panic you into buying something the doomsters are trying to sell, often gold," he wrote. To be sure, gold has jumped 25% from November lows, and is close to reaching its <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-today-record-high-fed-investors-safe-haven-markets-2023-4">previous record high</a> last seen in mid-2020.Meanwhile, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/us-dollar-index-bullish-signal-stock-market-outlook-economy-dxy-2023-4">the US Dollar Index has fallen by 11%</a> since its September peak. But McMillan isn't worried about the dollar's ups and downs."As far as the markets are concerned, the dollar is still where it has always been. If we consider the markets as a warning system, they are still flashing green," he wrote. "When they start to turn yellow or red, then will be the time to worry—but that is not what we are seeing."

Fears that the US dollar will collapse are nonsense, and doomsayers are often hawking gold, investment chief says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The future of <keyword id="11892774" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="afghanistan" source="Orion">Afghanistan</keyword>'s local <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> looks uncertain, according to its ex-central bank chief.</li><li>The <keyword id="11892778" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="taliban" source="Orion">Taliban</keyword> "had sufficient revenues to run an insurgency," not a government, said Ajmal Ahmady. </li><li>Local businesses could be hit as inflation grows and cash dries up. </li></ul>A "triple shock" to Afghanistan's economy could leave local businesses scrambling for a future as the country moves toward an economic crisis, says its most recent central bank chief.First, there was a regional drought. Then the COVID-19 pandemic. And now the Taliban takeover, Ajmal Ahmady said at an event hosted by the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/">Atlantic Council</a> on Friday. He said the Taliban "had sufficient revenues to run an insurgency but not to run a government." As the Taliban began the difficult task of taking over a broken and broke government, former insiders and outside observers said the local economy was perhaps days away from ruin.The central bank was running low on funds, without support or access to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taliban-has-almost-no-chance-getting-afghan-banks-reserves-2021-9">its reserves</a> from outside the country. The local currency, the afghani, was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/afghanistan-brink-economic-meltdown-former-finance-chief-khalid-payenda-2021-9">at risk</a> of a sharp decline. And locals were struggling to figure out how local Taliban rules would affect their businesses."I don't want to say economic collapse, but I think it's going to be [an] extremely challenging or difficult economic situation," Ahmady said, predicting that GDP would shrink by 10-20%. The economy in Afghanistan is cash-based, especially for local businesses. As citizens find it increasingly difficult to access cash and savings, these businesses are expected to suffer. Joseph Fleming, a managing director at <a href="https://straife.com/about/experts/">Straife</a>, which provides risk-advisory services, is a former lobbyist for Pakistan who has done business in Afghanistan and the surrounding region.He told Insider: "Certainly, local businesses that relied on services to NGOs and direct foreign aid recipients will likely be affected, but the average local business will be far more affected by the ongoing collapse of the afghani."Perhaps adding to the sting were the reports that former President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani had taken millions of dollars in government funds when he <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/afghan-president-ghani-fled-kabul-while-aides-were-on-lunch-break-wapo-2021-8">fled the city</a> last month. Ghani this week denied the reports, saying: "My wife and I have been scrupulous in our personal finances." <div type="image" title="Men trade bills in Sarai Shahzada market in Kabul" height="2663" width="3995" msid="86141619" hostid="261"></div>But he also acknowledged that Afghanistan had long struggled with officials who took their own share of government funds. Most of which came from foreign governments or <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">international</keyword> aid groups."Corruption is a plague that has crippled our country for decades and fighting corruption has been a central focus of my efforts as president," he said in <a href="https://twitter.com/ashrafghani/status/1435587942228140039/photo/1">a message</a> posted on Twitter. "I inherited a monster that could not easily or quickly be defeated." From an international perspective, it seemed clear that China had an interest in doing business with the Taliban, said Peter C. Earle, of the American Institute of Economic Research.It was likely that Beijing's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taliban-china-afghanistan-embassy-new-relationship-trade-2021-9">acceptance</a> of the Taliban - setting it apart in the international community - would amount to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warnings-about-chinese-plans-in-afghanistan-grow-amid-us-withdrawal-2021-8">a first step</a> toward helping the Taliban mine the "considerable mineral wealth" in the Afghani mountains and elsewhere, he said. The country has a range of natural resources, from gold and oil to rare elements like lithium. But unlocking the wealth of those resources could take a long time. "Once a vein or lode worth mining is discovered, the retrieval process is extremely capital intensive and may take even more years to become productive," he said. "If the Taliban is hostile to outsiders and/or shows an ambivalence toward property rights, the pool of interested mining and excavation partners will rapidly dwindle." Fleming said the US withdrawal may have created "the deal of a lifetime" for China. But for local businesses, the future was still hazy. The local currency will also be hard to obtain, partly because afghani printing facilities are limited, Ahmady said. "Inflation will definitely rise," he added.

Afghan businesses face a tough future under the Taliban as cash dries up and an economic crisis looms, says the country's ex-central bank chief

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<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for The New York TimesGoldman Sachs Group chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein.</div></div></div><section><article><div><div><section data-share-hash=""><div>Goldman Sachs just announed a new class of managing directors.</div><div></div><div>Here's the statement:</div></section></div>NEW YORK, November 8, 2017 -- The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today announced that it has selected a new class of Managing Directors, effective from January 1, 2018, the start of the firm's next fiscal year."Our new Managing Directors have demonstrated an outstanding commitment to our people, clients and culture during their tenures at the firm, and we wish them continued success as they take this important next step in their careers," said Lloyd C. Blankfein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs.The following individuals have been promoted to Managing Director: Gregg Abramson Sanjay Acharya Khalid Albdah Amal Alibair Karthikeyan Anbalagan Rolf Andersson Volker Anger Jonathan Armstrong Ken Ashley Lavanya Ashok Sebastian Ayton Jonathan Babkow Julio Badi Amitayush Bahri Soren Balzer Robert Barlick Jr. Philip Barreca Santiago Bau David Bauer Oksana Beard Lee Becker Virender Bedi Stuart Beer Christian Beerli Amanda Beisel Yumiko Bekku David Bell Pierre Benichou Andrew Benito Marco Bensi Laura Benson Stephen Bergin Daniel Berglund Greg Berry Shital Bhatt Dipanjan Bhattacharjee Anu Bhavnani Carissa Biggie Vineet Birman Daniel Bitel Anne Black Richard Blore Emmanuel Bodenstein Timothy Braude Sean Brenan Hugh Briscoe Nathaniel Bristol Leo Brito Troy Broderick Levee Brooks Eric Brothers Robert Bruns III Anthony Bunnell Meg Burke Susan Burt Sean Butkus Russell Byrne Edward Byun Adam Cahill Alessandro Calace Cristiano 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Gilberto Marcheggiano James Marchese Michael Marcus Joshua Matheus Ann Mathews Chris Mathie Brian McCallion Graham McClelland Anne McCosker Michael Meehan (Compliance) Taylor Mefford Neil Mehta Adam Meister David Mericle Vitali Meschoulam Eric Meyers Alex Mignotte Andras Mikite Christopher Milligan Rahul Mistry Mike Mitchell Neil Moge Waleed Mohsin Babak Molavi Joel Monson Guy Morgan James Morris Antoine Munfa Aimee Mungovan Yuji Murata Dan Murphy Josh Murray Brian Musto Shehzad Nabi Devarajan Nambakam Ramanathan Narayanan Ganapathy Natarajan Danielle Natoli Murad Nayal Karim Nensi Scott Neu Dennis Ng Ken Ng Benjamin Ngan Joy Nguyen Salman Niaz Anders Nielsen (IMD) Howard Nifoussi Jun Niki Leah Nivison Laura Noble James Nolan Lauren Oakes Lynn Oberschmidt Allison O'Connor John O'Connor Shunil Ohrie Damian Ordish Leke Osinubi David Ossack Sathiya Padmanaban Danielle Pallin Salvador Pareja Dalmir Pasini Clorinda Pasqua Chris Pawson Paris Pender Patrick Perkins Philippe Perzi Wendy Peters Andy Phillips Flavio Picciotto Michael Pieck Sam Pirog Thomas Plank Joseph Plotkin Wade Podlich Ashish Pokharna Caitlin Pollak Charles Pollock Joe Porter Travis Potter Rohit Prabhu Richard Privorotsky Andrew Pucher Jay Rabinowitz Ankit Raj Harsha Rajamani Dmitry Rakhlin Yasser Rathore Edoardo Rava Elizabeth Reed Alexandre Reinert Stephen Reinhard Irfan Rendeci Christian Resch Andrew Rhee Riccardo Riboldi James Rinsler Caroline Riskey Helen Robinson Mark Rosen Amit Roy Joe Ryan Bernhard Rzymelka Takehiro Sakuramoto John Sales Rob Sarazen Vineeta Saxena Dominik Schaefer Andrea Scott Majid Sebti Bipin Sehgal Arseni Seregin Irma Sgarz Paulomi Shah Shreyas Shah Sunny Shah Faisal Shamsee Daniel Shapiro Mahesh Sharma Shripal Sharma Mai Shin Romy Shioda Toshimichi Shirai Mark Short Pankauz Shrestha David Shrimpton Obaid Siddiqui Mike Sidorov Scott Silverglate Stefani Silverstein Amy Silverzweig Jasdeep Singh Gabriella Skirnick Michael Sklow Maxine Sleeper Michael Slomienski Michael Sloyer Nicholas Smith (IBD) Ruth Smithson Christine Smyth Ben Snider Stacy Sonnenberg Cleaver Sower Ro Spaziani Brian Steele Johannes Steffens Duncan Stewart Stephen Stites Laurent Storoni Caroline Styant Joel Sulkes Mancy Sun Winnie Tam Nachiket Tamhane Ken Tang MK Tang Amish Tanna Melissa Teng Ross Tennenbaum Greg Thompson Fiona Thomson Justin Tobe Jason Tofsky Brad Tuthill Masahiro Uchiyama Nehal Udeshi Saad Usmani Meg Vaden Pramod Vaidyanathan Adam Van de Berghe Fred van der Wyck Suzanne van Staveren Andrew Vass Mahesh Vellanki Kadambari Verma Christopher Vilburn Iva Vukina Heng Vuong Ketan Vyas Joe Wall Jeffrey Wang Jiantao Wang Joshua Wang Lily Wang (Technology) Sherry Wang Victoria Ward (Compliance) Jeff Warren Noriko Watanabe Ramey Watkins Sam Watkins Heiko Weber Niki Webster Scott Weinstein Ryan Westmacott James Westwood Keith Wetzel Mark Wetzel James Whittingham Sabine Wick Robert Wieser Devin Wilde David Wilkins John Wilkinson Andrew Williams Ed Wong (IBD Technology) Eric Wong (Internal Audit) Kate Wood Amanda Wu Douglas Wu Joanne Xu Liang Xu** Rupam Yadav Kazushi Yamaguchi Hubert Yang Lisa Yang Basak Yavuz Zeynep Yenel David Yu Brian Zakrocki Thomas Zeppetella Yi Zhang* Adib Zouein Patrik Zumstein Piotr Zurawski Jonathan Zwart*Employee of Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities Company Limited **Employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited</div></article></section>Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/GS-Quote"> here.</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/interview-with-kristina-hooper-chief-investment-strategist-at-invesco-2017-11">We talked to the chief investment strategist at $920 billion fund giant Invesco about where you should invest right now</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

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