Best printers for Home

Best Mixer Grinder

Best wired Earphones

Best 43 Inch TV in India

Best Wi Fi Routers

Best Home Theatre in India

Smart Watch under 5000

Best Laptops for Education

Best Laptop for Students

New York [US], April 5 (ANI): The <keyword id="10561122" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bird-flu-pandemic" source="Orion">bird flu pandemic</keyword> with the potential to be "<keyword id="21202249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="100-times-worse" source="Orion">100 times worse</keyword> than COVID" may be on the horizon after a rare human case was discovered in Texas, experts have warned, the New York Post reported on Thursday. The <keyword id="21202246" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="H5N1-avian-flu" source="keywords">H5N1 avian flu</keyword> has spread rapidly since a new strain was detected in 2020 affecting wild birds in every state, as well as in commercial poultry and backyard flocks. But the recent cases detected in mammals, with cattle herds across four states becoming infected and on Monday, federal health officials announced that a dairy worker in Texas caught the virus. "This virus [has been] on the top of the pandemic list for many, many years and probably decades," Suresh Kuchipudi, a <keyword id="95867" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bird-flu" source="Orion">bird flu</keyword> researcher from Pittsburgh, said at a recent panel discussing the issue, the New York Post reported citing the Daily Mail. "And now we're getting dangerously close to this virus potentially causing a pandemic." He noted that the <keyword id="565908" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="H5N1-virus" source="Orion">H5N1 virus</keyword> has already been detected in species throughout the world and "has shown the ability to infect a range of mammalian hosts, including humans." "So therefore, in my view, I think this is a virus that has the greatest pandemic threat [that is] playing out in plain sight and globally present," Kuchipudi said. John Fulton, a pharmaceutical industry consultant for vaccines and the founder of Canada-based BioNiagara who organized the meeting, also expressed his concerns, the Mail reports, the New York Post reported. "This appears to be 100 times worse than COVID -- or it could be if it mutates and maintains its high case fatality rate," he said. "Once it's mutated to infect humans, we can only hope that the [fatality rate] drops." Around 52 per cent of humans who have contracted H5N1 since 2003 have died, according to the World Health Organization. For comparison, COVID currently kills less than 0.1% of those it infects -- though at the start of the pandemic, the fatality rate was around 20 per cent. Symptoms of the bird flu are similar to those of other flus, including cough, body aches and fever, the New York Post reported. Some people may not develop noticeable symptoms, but others can develop severe, life-threatening pneumonia. The dairy worker in Texas who was infected has reported "eye redness (consistent with conjunctivitis)" as their only symptom, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted. "The patient was told to isolate and is being treated with an antiviral drug for [the] flu," the CDC said. The agency and "the whole US government is taking this situation very seriously," CDC Director Mandy Cohen told the Washington Post. She maintained that the virus does not pose much of a risk to the general public, noting that the dairy worker was in direct contact with infected cattle, and the US Department of Agriculture has said there are currently no changes that would make it more transmissible to humans. "While cases among humans in direct contact with infected animals are possible, this indicates that the current risk to the public remains low," the department said in a statement over the weekend. But the fact that the virus has been found in cattle could mean it is starting to mutate, Cohen told the Washington Post. "We had not seen avian flu in cattle prior to last week. That is new," she said. "It is a reservoir for [the] virus to circulate and potentially change." If the virus does mutate enough to infect humans, it could spread rapidly, the European Food Safety Authority warned on Wednesday, according to Fox News. "If avian A [H5N1] influenza viruses acquire the ability to spread efficiently among humans, large-scale transmission could occur due to the lack of immune defences against H5 viruses in humans," the Food Safety Authority said. To prevent any potential spread, the US is already testing components used to create a vaccine for the virus, and two candidate vaccine viruses appear to be well-matched to protect against H5N1, the Washington Post reports. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre also said the Biden administration is monitoring the threat. "We take the health and safety of the American people seriously," she said at her briefing on Wednesday. "It is very important to this president. Our top priority is to keep communities healthy, safe and informed."

Scientists warn of bird flu pandemic that could be '100 times worse' than COVID after rare human case found in US

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="23944870" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sonya-Moore" source="keywords">Sonya Moore</keyword> decided that if Trump won in 2016, she would leave the US.</li><li>She followed through and has been living abroad for seven years.</li></ul>"If Trump wins this election, I'm <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reelected-americans-are-planning-to-flee-in-droves-2024-3">moving out of the country</a>." I said those words in November 2016. So did a lot of other Americans: so many, in fact, that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/canadian-immigration-site-crash-election-2016-11">Canada's immigration website crashed</a> as votes were being tallied due to increased traffic. No joke. I don't know how many others <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-who-left-us-because-of-trump-talk-biden-presidency-2020-12">followed through on that declaration</a>, but I did. Trump won the election, and 9 months later, I left the US. Full disclosure: Trump becoming president was not the only reason I left — it was also about being fed up with my corporate job, coupled with a strong desire to explore the world. I was 37, single, with no children or pets, so I was free to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/working-mom-quit-job-expat-move-abroad-qatar-singapore-2023-12">quit my job</a>, uproot myself, and take off. I did own a house at the time, which I sold a few months after I left. Upon my departure, I didn't have much of a plan other than the intention to spend some time slowly exploring Asia and teaching English when I needed to make money. This no-plan thing was out of character for me, but I was very comfortable with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/southeast-asia-travel-mistakes-packing-weather-clothing-traditions-medicine-2024-4">solo international travel</a>, thanks to previous study abroad experiences and 14 years of intensive overseas work-related travel. <div type="image" title="Sonya Moore in Siem Reap, Cambodia" height="1280" width="1600" msid="115071450" hostid="261"></div><h2>The move opened a new chapter in my life</h2>As months unfolded, I discovered that when you leave space for it, life guides you to the places, people, and opportunities that are meant for you. Seven years later, I'm still living <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer-couldnt-afford-retirement-in-california-moved-abroad-travel-happy-2024-10">happily outside the US</a>. While my decision to leave opened up a horizon of experiences beyond my wildest dreams and led me to the man of my dreams, it hasn't all been a bed of roses. The first year, I lived off savings while traveling slowly through Asia. I started my travels in India, where I spent 10 days at a silent meditation retreat, attended teachings by the Dalai Lama, and took a <keyword id="20626363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yoga-teacher-training" source="keywords">yoga teacher training</keyword>. I promptly got hooked on teaching yoga. After four months in India, I continued <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-pack-traveling-in-southeast-asia-singapore-thailand-bali-2023-9">making my way through Asia</a> for eight more months. I swam in the crystal clear waters of the Maldives, visited healers in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-family-kids-bali-decompress-relocate-slow-life-work-remote-2024-10">Bali</a>, witnessed breathtaking sunrise views from mountaintops in Laos, went island-hopped through the Philippines, rode motorbikes around Thailand's islands, and discovered ancient pagodas in Myanmar The cost of living in much of Asia is so low that savings can stretch a long way. I have high standards for my accommodations, and while traveling, I usually spent around $20 to $25 per night on hotels. Lower-maintenance friends of mine found simpler places for $6 per night in India. Meals usually cost around $3. After six weeks in India, I considered a lunch bill of $5 to be expensive. <h2>There have been times along the way when I've felt lost </h2>From time to time, I experienced stretches of feeling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/relocation-moved-to-milan-living-abroad-emotionally-exhausting-unspoken-truths-2023-9">unsettled and lacking a sense of purpose</a>. Over the years, I learned that those periods of doubt and uncertainty will continue to surface. But I also learned to just keep trusting, and the way forward would eventually reveal itself. People often ask me if I was ever afraid while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-women-need-to-know-traveling-solo-southeast-asia-tips-2022-12">traveling alone through Asia</a>. I never was — except a couple of times in India when riding on some precariously high Himalayan roads with no guardrails. But of people? I never had a reason to be. After a year away, I found an opportunity to teach yoga in a small mountain town in Myanmar. Life there was quiet, simple, and beautiful. I lived there for 9 months, and I was profoundly happy most of the time. But there were times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/loneliness-how-to-make-friends-remote-worker-freelancer-new-city-2024-2">I felt lonely</a>. The locals were sweet and kind, with love in their eyes and actions, but I missed friends who spoke my language fluently, with whom I could have deep conversations over a glass of wine. And the dating scene? Nonexistent. <div type="image" title="Sonya Moore kissing a man at the airport" height="2118" width="1754" msid="115071453" hostid="261"></div><h2>I found love during my travels</h2>Another yoga teaching opportunity took me to Siem Reap, Cambodia. Siem Reap is not a big city, but after my small-town Myanmar life, it felt like Manhattan. There were so many restaurants, bars, social events, friends, and even some attractive single men. I fell in love with the town, the quality of life, and the locals. It was easy to get a tourist or work visa to live here long term, and it was almost as inexpensive as India and Myanmar. I was living in Siem Reap when COVID-19 hit. By that time, I was in a <keyword id="20752574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="long-distance-relationship" source="keywords">long-distance relationship</keyword> with a French man I met during my travels. After the closed borders of the pandemic kept us apart for 7 months, I moved to France to be with him. Our story was long and winding, but it felt like destiny. He <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/my-partner-couple-travel-together-full-time-one-date-2024-5">loves global travel</a> like I do. We've been together for four years and are living together in Papua New Guinea. Our plan is to go back to a nomadic slow-travel lifestyle. My career has gradually evolved to encompass creative pursuits that light me up inside: retreats, writing, photography, and yoga. I am deeply grateful to my former self for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-abroad-cheap-low-cost-living-high-quality-life-2024-1">choosing to leave the US</a>. I sometimes miss family and friends, but thanks to technology, our connection stays alive across the distance, and I go back to visit once a year. I still love America and feel lucky to have been born and raised there. But there's a big world out there waiting to be discovered. Do you have a personal essay about relocating to Asia that you want to share? Get in touch with the editor at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:akarplus@businessinsider.com">akarplus@businessinsider.com</a>. November 11, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mentioned Trump becoming president was not the reason Moore left, it was not the only reason.

I swore I would leave the US if Trump won the 2016 election. Here's how that worked out for me.

I do not know anyone who heads to the airport and thinks to themselves, "Oh man, I bet this is going to be an awesome experience." Just booking a flight means contemplating a sliding scale of unfortunate scenarios. What if my bag is lost? What if the flight is overbooked? What do I do if it's delayed or canceled? Once you get to the airport, things only get worse: the headache that is maneuvering through long security lines, swallowing eye-popping airport prices, or wondering just how scared you should be if you wind up on a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-crashes-groundings-timeline-737-max-777-air-force-tanker-2024-1">Boeing</a>. At this point, it's more of a pleasant surprise if a flight actually goes as planned.Beyond the low-level dread that accompanies every trip, several high-profile recent incidents have driven home how frustrating air travel can be. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-expert-explains-whats-going-on-with-southwest-cancellations-2022-12">Southwest's December 2022 meltdown</a>, due in large part to its outdated scheduling system, resulted in nearly 17,000 flight cancellations and more than 2 million stranded passengers. This summer, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-canceled-more-flights-in-5-days-than-2-years-2024-7">Delta canceled thousands of flights</a> as it struggled to recover from the CrowdStrike outage.Before you set your passport on fire and declare that from here on out you'll only be hitting the great American highways for vacation, know that help is on the way. On the consumer front, the federal government is trying to make flying less disastrous where possible. It's making it so that when the airlines have an oops, they don't get to hold on to your money — and they can't wait until you have a hissy fit to give you a refund. In the wake of the pandemic, for example, the Department of Transportation <a target="_blank" href="https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/more-600-million-refunds-returned-airline-passengers-under-dot-rules-backed-new">took action</a> against six airlines that dragged their feet on giving passengers over $600 million in refunds. The government is also trying to make airlines be up front about fees and ax some charges. The message to the airline industry: You've had a few too many screwups to be left to your own devices."This goes through cycles," said Bob Mann, an aviation analyst. "Airlines behave badly, airlines behave badly. Customers react, customers react. Finally, the DOT reacts."William McGee, a longtime consumer advocate and senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, an anti-monopoly think tank, is a guy who thinks a lot about all the problems with the airline industry. He was fairly unimpressed with President Joe Biden's administration, particularly Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, for the first year or two, but now he's a fan. The airline industry's screwups in recent years, capped off by the Southwest debacle, were the "turning point" that, in his view, got the administration to step up."I've seen more progress in the last year on consumer protections than I have — I'm not being hyperbolic — in the last 15," he said.Over the past couple of years, the Biden administration has introduced a slew of rules and services intended to make airline passengers' lives easier. Some are aimed at protecting people's pocketbooks, others at just helping them stay informed about their options and rights.In April, the DOT <a target="_blank" href="https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/biden-harris-administration-announces-final-rule-requiring-automatic-refunds-airline">announced a final rule</a> requiring airlines to automatically issue refunds when they cancel or significantly change flights. The rule, set to go into effect in October, also says airlines have to give people their money back on fees for other services when they are not delivered as promised, like if their checked bag gets super delayed or the plane WiFi they purchased doesn't work. Importantly, the DOT stipulates that the refunds have to be in cash or the original form of payment — no more vouchers or credits that lock up consumers' money."They've always been reluctant to give refunds," said Janet Bednarek, an aviation historian at the University of Dayton. "They much prefer to keep your money and keep you as a customer by giving you a voucher, which can only be used on their company."Biden signed the Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization bill in May that included the stipulations about automatic refunds for delayed and canceled flights, giving the DOT rule even more legislative bite. (The part of the rule specific to refunds on ancillary fees won't kick in until the fall.) Buttigieg also sent a reminder to airlines in July about their obligations on passenger refunds."I am hearing reports of some airlines only offering flight credits to passengers for cancelled flights," he wrote on X. "Let me be clear — you are entitled to get your money back promptly if your flight is cancelled and you don't take a rebooking." The airline industry seems to be relatively on board with the refund idea. A spokesperson for Airlines for America, an industry trade group, told me in an email that its members "strongly support" rules requiring automatic refunds and that its carriers "abide by — and frequently exceed — DOT regulations regarding consumer protections."The industry is not so on board with other parts of the Biden administration's make-flying-less-awful agenda. Major airlines and A4A have sued to challenge a DOT rule aimed at protecting consumers from what the administration has called "junk fees." It would make the airlines tell consumers up front about extra charges for checking or carrying on bags, canceling a trip, or changing reservations. The industry, on the other hand, holds that disclosing fees immediately would "greatly confuse consumers who will be inundated with information" and that the DOT's efforts to regulate the charges are beyond its authority. (Courts have <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4800399-joe-biden-airline-junk-fees-rule-temporarily-paused/">temporarily blocked</a> the rule.) In essence, the DOT is arguing that airlines should be clear about their fees so that consumers can accurately compare prices, while the airlines are saying it's unnecessary. In an email, the A4A spokesperson argued that airlines already do enough to inform consumers about fees and described the rule as "a bad solution in search of a problem."The DOT has also proposed a rule that would bar airlines from charging a fee for parents to sit next to their kids. Some airlines already do this — but not all of them. A4A says all its carriers make "every effort to ensure families sit together," but each has its own policy. The rule is now headed to a public-comment period, meaning it will be a while before it's finalized, if it ever is. The Biden administration is also trying to make flying specifically <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/airlines-wheelchairs-regulation-biden-administration-71be0f947702fd6e9dcdde97bd53b3ef">better for people with disabilities</a> and improve standards around accommodations.Beyond rulemaking and enforcement, the DOT has made some efforts to help consumers navigate various airlines' policies. It's launched a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.transportation.gov/airconsumer/airline-customer-service-dashboard">dashboard</a> to let you see which airlines offer services such as free family seating and free rebooking in the event of a "controllable" cancellation or a long delay, meaning a problem caused by the airline.The dashboard and the various rules about refunds are nice — knowledge is power, after all — but the effect is limited because not a lot of passengers know about them. Most Americans fly maybe once or twice a year, and even people being informed about the whole deal doesn't stop airlines from trying to first offer a voucher instead of a refund or charge their litany of fees."I guess it's better in that consumers have access to better information, but there is still a lot of push and pull out there," Bednarek said. "How many consumers actually go to that dashboard to find out how open are the airlines about what the rules actually are? How do you tell the difference between a controllable and an uncontrollable delay?"Still, McGee says the Biden administration's consumer-protection efforts have been admirable: "Buttigieg has stepped up, and it's like there's a new sheriff in town, and the airlines don't like it, and they're very critical of him, and they're critical of Congress."Like a lot of businesses and industries, airlines tend to overreact at the slightest hint of new rules and regulations, even just stuff at the margins. That seems to be a lot of what's happening here — none of what the administration is pushing is that dire. I can see the argument that listing fees out on a site like Expedia or Kayak might be a little jarring for consumers at first, but that should be a solvable user-experience problem. On the refunds thing, I mean, come on — if you order a burger at a restaurant and the restaurant is out of burgers, it doesn't get to charge you for the burger anyway."If you ask the industry to do something, they will first say it's impossible," Mann said. "And after making it clear that it's definitely not impossible, they will say, well, we could do that, but it would cause us irreparable harm." Consumers do have the opportunity to vote with their feet and go to better airlines, but there is a natural limit to this, given that almost every airline is experiencing hiccups and using many of the same tactics. Still, not everyone agrees with the government's meddling. George Ferguson, an airline analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told me he thinks the market should be able to sort itself out."In most other businesses in the US, the government doesn't step in and tell a business whether it has to give a refund or a credit or how that has to work," he said. "As much as you could kind of see the airlines sitting on people's refunds, some of them split with the pack; some of them were better than others in getting refunds."In many cases, however, it was hard to know which airline had which policy, and now whether and how fast you'll get your money back doesn't depend on the airline.Getting a refund on a service that wasn't delivered seems like a bit of a gimme. But there are plenty of other problems with the airline industry that need solving — some the government can take care of, and some the government is causing. The FAA is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-traffic-controller-shortage-salary-requirements-plane-collisions-close-calls-2023-8">short thousands of air-traffic controllers</a>, which affects schedules and, if you really want to worry, potentially safety. The agency has dealt with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-ceo-calls-faa-outage-unacceptable-says-needs-more-money-2023-1">tech headaches</a> and has been accused of falling short on some of its oversight duties. The recently signed reauthorization bill should help in some areas — getting more air-traffic controllers and safety inspectors hired, for example — but the FAA still has its fair share of issues.<a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1579/airlines.aspx">Gallup polls suggest</a> more Americans have a negative view of the airline industry than a positive one. But there are all sorts of ways flying can and should be better. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.vox.com/23460965/airport-restaurant-flight-prices-lounge-bar-expensive">Airport prices for things like food and beverages</a>, whether a full meal or a simple cup of coffee, are truly outlandish. Flights are packed and often overbooked. The fees really are hard to figure out. The argument that airlines make is that it's a positive for passengers to be able to get the lowest price and then add on, but when the starting price for a ticket you see on a travel website winds up being $100 lower than the fare you wind up paying, it's annoying. The fees also create a bunch of weird incentives — everyone tries to board with their bags to avoid paying extra, and the planes just aren't made to accommodate everyone's bags. At a higher level, it's easy to wonder whether the airline industry is competitive enough or whether deregulating the airlines in the 1970s was really the right move.The reality is also that the way the airlines get better — either because they decide to or, more often, because passengers, lawmakers, and regulators demand it — is often through a major screwup. Things get bad enough that finally there's some action.Absent the public failures, there wouldn't be a lot of political will to take these actions, Bednarek said. "You say, OK, we can all agree that this was unacceptable. And the airlines themselves recognize that this could be damaging to their bottom line," she said. "They will take action, and they will put a Band-Aid on it. They will fix those who were affected by that particular incident, but making broader, long-term structural changes, that's a whole other ball game."That cycle, in and of itself, isn't really sustainable. But for now, it's the best we've got. So remember: Next time your airline cancels your flight, say no to the voucher and get that cash sent straight to your credit card.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/emily-stewart">Emily Stewart</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.

Flying has never been worse — but hope is on the way

<ul class="summary-list"><li>An office building in St. Louis sold for $3.6 million after selling for $205 million 18 years prior.</li><li>Downtown St. Louis is filled with unoccupied buildings and an unwillingness to visit them.</li></ul>A vacant office building in downtown St. Louis just sold for $3.6 million — a nearly 98% discount from its 2006 sales price, signaling a concerning course for the Midwestern city's downtown area.The former One AT&amp;T Center, which at 44 stories is the third-tallest building in St. Louis, sold for $205 million in 2006 and recently sold for $3.6 million to the Goldman Group, a real-estate investment firm, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.costar.com/article/642008108/one-of-st-louis-tallest-office-towers-empty-for-years-sells-for-less-than-2-of-its-peak-price">according to CoStar News</a>.The steep drop in the tower's value is just one sign that St. Louis' central business district is struggling, reports say. The challenges facing it and other Midwestern hubs are perhaps graver than bigger downtowns that have been more widely depicted as abandoned or dying, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-pain-worsens-workers-visitors-shoppers-leave-2023-6">like San Francisco's</a>, according to economics and public-policy experts.According to an April 10 report from commercial-real-estate brokerage JLL, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.us.jll.com/en/trends-and-insights/research/office-market-statistics-trends/st-louis">total office vacancy</a> in St. Louis reached a record-high 22.3% during the first quarter of 2024. The AT&amp;T tower has been empty since 2017, according to CoStar. Another downtown building, the 21-story <a target="_blank" href="https://unseenstlouis.substack.com/p/the-st-louis-railway-exchange-building">Railway Exchange Building</a>, is similarly abandoned after housing a once-thriving local department store, according to the Unseen St. Louis blog.Indeed, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/doom-loop-st-louis-44505465">St. Louis' downtown</a> resembles a ghost town with a number of boarded-up buildings, according to The Wall Street Journal's Konrad Putzier.Local businesses, including restaurants and shops, that have shuttered due to a lack of foot traffic thanks to a rise in remote work have spawned a vicious cycle, the Journal found."It's a classic chicken and egg kind of deal," Glenn MacDonald, a professor of economics at Washington University in St. Louis's Olin Business School, told the Journal. "People don't go there because there's nothing to do. There's nothing to do because people don't go there."The cycle is often called the "urban doom loop," which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/urban-doom-loop-american-cities/677847/">the Atlantic</a> describes as the cycle of people moving away from city as things get worse, then things getting worse because more people moved away.Business Insider's Eliza Relman described <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/midwest-america-cities-downtown-crisis-office-apocalypse-urban-doom-loop-2023-6">the doom loop afflicting Midwestern cities</a>: "Commercial property taxes make up a large chunk of many city budgets, so as office vacancies rise, the decreased revenue could force leaders to curtail municipal services or make cuts to key programs. Declining services and quality of life in turn pushes residents out, leading to a self-reinforcing exodus. Without serious changes, these midsize cities in the middle of the country could be quietly sliding into oblivion."There's data on this. University of Toronto researchers analyzed anonymous cellphone data to track the number of people in central business districts in North America each day from March to June 2023, compared to the same period in 2019. <a target="_blank" href="https://downtownrecovery.com/charts/rankings">According to the most recent data</a>, St. Louis ranked last among the 66 cities analyzed. Six out of the bottom 10 cities were in the Midwest.San Francisco, which was plastered as a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/almost-a-quarter-of-san-francisco-office-space-vacant-2022-8">cautionary tale during the remote-work boom</a>, has yet to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-san-francisco-needs-workers-businesses-for-survival-2023-8">fully bounce back</a>, but still ranks 18 spots above St. Louis in terms of downtown foot traffic.The problem with Midwestern cities, like St. Louis, is that there's not much attracting people to the center of the city — and that applies to commuters, tourists, and residents."What I really think it comes down to in these places is that there's nothing special about any of the downtowns in any of these cities that would be attractive to new residents," Michael Hicks, a professor of economics and business research at Ball State University in Indiana, told BI's Relman in 2023. "The cities just don't have the fundamental amenities that would attract people."Relman concluded that Midwestern cities need to prioritize adding downtown amenities — which can range from playgrounds and libraries to boutiques and cafés — in order to attract more people.Coastal cities are already getting ahead of the problem.While bigger hubs like San Francisco and New York are also experiencing an increase in office vacancies compared to before the pandemic, more developers in those spots are doing something about it: investing in upgrading offices into spaces <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-coolest-offices-architecture-photos-2024-3">employees might actually want to go to</a>.The Midwest faced problems with its sluggish downtowns well before the pandemic, Tracy Hadden Loh, a fellow at the nonprofit think-tank Brookings Institution, told BI in 2023."The pandemic is a huge disruption that has produced some real paradigm shifts, but the vast majority of what it's done is just drastically accelerate existing trends," she said.

The city whose 'doom loop' just might be worse than San Francisco's

<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan said the vast majority of Americans have burned through excess savings. </li><li>It's likely that all but the top 1% of consumers will be worse off financially in mid-2024 than they were pre-pandemic, the bank said.</li></ul>The majority of Americans have burned through their excess savings piled up during the COVID-19 pandemic, and in the coming months, JPMorgan says it is likely that almost everyone will be worse off financially than they were in 2019. In a Thursday note, the bank's top stock strategist Marko Kolanovic said 80% of consumers, a group that accounts for nearly two-thirds of consumption, has already depleted any savings cushion they may have built during lockdowns."It is likely that only the top 1% of consumers by income will be better off than before the pandemic," Kolanovic wrote, pointing to the growing signs of credit card and auto loan delinquencies, as well as Chapter 11 filings.The chart below shows how, by June 2024, every income group except the top 1% is on pace to dip below their March 2020 levels of inflation-adjusted liquid assets, in the form of deposits and money market funds. <div type="image" title="JPMorgan consumer spending and liquid assets chart 2023" height="406" width="852" msid="105819941" hostid="261"></div>JPMorgan estimated previously that excess savings had peaked in August 2021 at $2.1 trillion, boosted by government stimulus checks. That's since been whittled down to below $148 billion, per the firm's calculations as of October. "Consumers are facing tighter credit conditions and rising rates, wind-down of Covid-era stimulus and relief programs, declining excess savings and liquidity, and multiple years of above average inflation," JPMorgan strategists wrote at the time.As Bank of America wrote in a recent note, the plight of elder millennials is particularly difficult. Older millennials — a demographic of Americans born in the 1980s that holds significant influence on the US economy — have had to navigate the 2008 financial crisis in addition to the pandemic during critical working years of their lives.The two economic storms, as well as mounting childcare costs and sticky inflation, have made it difficult for the sizable cohort to own a house, save for retirement, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/credit-card-debt-income-homeownership-foreclosure-bankruptcy-elder-millennials-lifestyle-2023-12">comfortably spend money within their means</a>. JPMorgan notes that, fortunately for now, there is little sign of systemic weakness in housing, though the market remains largely frozen amid high borrowing costs. "There are no significant delinquencies in residential mortgages yet, as consumers locked in low interest rates," Kolanovic said. "However, existing home sales have dropped near record lows, and ~$6.5 trillion of commercial real estate debt remains an overhang."

99% of Americans will be financially worse-off than they were pre-pandemic by mid-2024, JPMorgan says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Luxury companies' sales are tanking in China due to slowing consumer demand.</li><li>Chinese consumers are putting their money into safe assets rather than spending it.</li></ul>Luxury sales are suffering in the <a target="_blank" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN&amp;most_recent_value_desc=true">world's second-largest economy</a> as Chinese shoppers cut back on luxury spending.Kering, the latest luxury brand to report earnings, said on Wednesday that it continued to see a "deceleration" in Asia-Pacific. The company <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gucci-kering-income-decline-stock-down-hit-china-sales-slump-2024-4">warned in April</a> that recurring operating income for the first half of the year would slide up to 45%, compared to the first half of 2023. Two-thirds of Kering's revenue comes from Gucci, which has been especially hard hit in China as customers eschew the brand's older designs and buy at a discount overseas.LVMH <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lvmh-earnings-china-luxury-consumer-spending-marketing-shopping-japan-currency-2024-7">reported</a> a 13% decline in revenue — down to 12.4 billion euros, or $13.4 billion — for Asia in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. While LVMH did not specifically break out revenue from China, the company has seen sluggish Chinese consumer demand, particularly in the second quarter, said chief financial officer Jean-Jacques Guiony on Tuesday.Consumer spending in China has been improving "more moderately than before COVID-19," Luca Solca, a luxury goods analyst at Bernstein, told Business Insider.Chinese shoppers' reluctance to spend more despite higher<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-second-quarter-gdp-growth-weak-demand-consumption-exports-2024-7"> disposable incomes</a> "produces a 'growth relay' of relatively muted proportion, where even high-quality companies have generated low single-digit growth," Solca said.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-luxury-retail-sales-slowdown-brands-fashion-2024-7">LVMH's peers</a> have similarly seen slumps in revenue from China. In its most recent quarter, Burberry's Chinese sales revenue declined 21% from last year. In recent earnings, Kering, Swatch, and Hugo Boss expressed challenges in engaging a Chinese market with softening demand.Richemont also was barraged by the weakening Chinese consumer demand. Last week, the parent company of brands including Cartier <a target="_blank" href="https://www.richemont.com/media/iljbpjkt/ad-hoc-announcement-pursuant-to-art-53-lr-fy25-q1-sales-for-the-first-quarter-ended-30-june-2024.pdf">reported</a> a 27% decline in revenue in the combined markets of China, Hong Kong, and Macau, dragging total Asia Pacific sales down by 18%.<h2 id="31963d30-a7de-4331-9ab6-23d53dc55766">Massive discounts and online shopping</h2>To try to boost sales, luxury brands have given <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-brands-slash-prices-in-china-burberry-marc-jacobs-2024-7">massive discounts</a> to Chinese consumers. Brands including Balenciaga and Versace slashed prices by an average of 40% and 50%, respectively, to Chinese customers, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-13/luxury-labels-slash-prices-50-to-lure-wary-chinese-shoppers">Bloomberg</a> reported last month. In early July, Marc Jacobs offered more than 50% discounts on Alibaba's upscale e-commerce platform, Tmall Luxury Pavilion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/d304beae-9a75-432c-b3b6-006a70a64b93">FT</a> reported. Burberry, Balenciaga, and Marc Jacobs did not respond to earlier requests for comment.This step into e-commerce is a change for luxury retailers, which have traditionally abstained from listing products online to avoid associating their brand with quick and convenient shopping, Damien Yeo, an analyst at Fitch Solutions, told BI. They're likely trying to clear stock, which could degrade their brands as some third-party platforms sell their goods at big discounts, Yeo said.A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-household-deposits-savings-luxury-consumer-demand-slowdown-economy-outlook-2024-7">recent survey</a> by US investment bank TD Cowen suggested that Chinese consumers are spending less on luxury goods while spending more on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-lopsided-recovery-consumer-retail-spending-industrial-output-property-2024-5">overseas travel </a>and safe assets such as gold. The government is also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-wants-nepo-baby-get-rich-quick-influencers-gone-2024-5">campaigning</a> against "money worship," so consumers may be less likely to buy something splashy, part of a broader <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-goods-sales-slow-clothes-shoes-china-bain-company-travel-2024-6">cultural tilt</a> toward "luxury shaming."Luxury goods are still popular with wealthy Chinese shoppers — just not in China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rich-chinese-flock-to-japan-in-search-of-luxury-bargains-2024-7">Japan</a> has been a popular tourist destination for the Chinese, thanks to the yen's 40-year low against the US dollar. This currency weakness has attracted "a big shift of business from Asia into Japan," said LVMH's Guiony on Tuesday. LVMH sales in Japan were boosted by 57% in the first half of the year, which Guiony attributed to a surge in Chinese tourists.Not all luxury brands are feeling the heat in China. Hermès saw a 17% spike in sales revenue in the first three months of the year due to its recession-resistant customer base, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/hermes-defies-luxury-slowdown-with-sales-jump-in-asia">Bloomberg</a> reported. Hermès is set to publish half-yearly financials on Thursday.

The luxury outlook in China just keeps getting worse

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Dana Mayer moved back to the US after living in the UK for 25 years.</li><li>She used to get frustrated by the British tendency to accept mediocrity.</li></ul>I wasn't prepared for how much the US had changed when I moved back. I'd been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/things-american-misses-after-moving-back-from-uk-2022-11">living in the UK</a> for 25 years, but when the <keyword id="19913581" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pandemic" source="keywords">pandemic</keyword> kicked off in March 2020, I decided it was time to go home. It wasn't until returning that I realized how British I'd become and that "home" was more difficult to define. Now, after having lived almost half my life in each country, I feel equally in love with both, although for very different reasons. I struggled with the lack of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/social-life-differences-living-in-uk-compared-to-us">personal space in the UK</a> — some of that stems from the UK's population density being almost eight times that of the US per square mile, per <a target="_blank" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.DNST">World Bank Open Data</a>. This translated into <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/london-dumpster-tiny-home-how-i-use-space-photos-2023-4">tiny homes</a> with common walls even in the countryside and jostling for sidewalk space in the cities. It also seemed to result in a populace adverse to talking to or making eye contact with strangers in order to protect their perceived sanity. <h2>Size and space struck me when I returned to the US</h2>Fresh out of COVID quarantine, I was visiting a friend in a New York City suburb, looking around their giant kitchen with its oversized fridge. I didn't even have to go outside to their huge lawn or the wooded roads surrounding the property to feel my energy expand into what was simply more space per person. This is also when I spotted an enormous orange pepper on the kitchen counter that looked like a mutant interloper. Was this actually food? Was it a pepper crossed with some kind of alien Godzilla? It was so big that I took a picture. I spent the rest of the day laughing at its size. In keeping with the <keyword id="20075613" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="American" source="keywords">American</keyword> freewheeling mentality, expansive personal space, and a business mindset that allows for growth and experimentation, the pepper, as well as other fruits, vegetables, and even portions, in the US are typically bigger. In the UK, the small peppers fit into small houses, and the food was closer to its natural form. Their relatively closed mindset of "we've always done it this way" actually kept their food closer to the source. However, we'll see how big their peppers get in the years ahead. The pandemic gave me time to reflect on a lot of things <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/things-brit-in-new-york-city-misses-about-england-manchester-2024-1">I missed about the UK</a> — the <keyword id="20050314" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Health-Service" source="keywords">National Health Service</keyword>, the intelligent level of public discourse, and the newscasters without plastic hair. There was also the quiet dignity of the seemingly closed people who would keep you out of their inner circle until, finally, they let you in in a grounded, loyal way. In contrast, folks in the US often unravel their whole life story to me while standing in the Target checkout line. <h2>But I never quite fit in while living in the UK</h2>In the UK, I always felt like an outsider in some ways, especially when doing things like playing Trivial Pursuit. No matter how long I lived there, I never got most of the cultural references, because it's not where I'd grown up. I'm glad now that in the US I don't have to explain to anyone of my generation what <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-kind-of-candy-corn-to-buy-reviewed-photos-2021-10">candy corn</a> is or who <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvAtG3T2NDY">Magilla Gorilla</a>, a 1960s cartoon, is. Still, I'm torn between the American expectation of excellence which can be over-the-top and relentless, and the British tendency to accept mediocrity, brush problems under the carpet, and sometimes have a more peaceful life as a result. When <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/american-gen-zer-moved-to-london-wouldnt-recommend-to-everyone-2024-5">I first came to the UK</a>, I waited tables at a tourist-trap restaurant where the food was overpriced and microwaved rubbish. When I went to the table and asked about the meal, almost every British customer replied, "It was lovely," in a shy, sheepish way. Years later, my British ex-boyfriend, who held a high-level management position and told people what to do all day at work, used to get embarrassed when I asked restaurant staff to please wipe the table because it was dirty. As an American I'd grown up feeling entitled to a clean table when paying for service in a restaurant. Now, I cringe when I see Americans in restaurants demanding a free meal because their drinks arrive five minutes late. Four years after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mistakes-moving-to-america-from-uk-2023-11">moving back to the US</a>, I'm grateful for the personal space, the "yes!" mentality, and the abundance of nature. But I do miss the cultivated hedgerows of the UK and the quiet, more reserved style of its people. And no matter how much affinity I felt with the land there, there is also some knowing and grounding with the land here, which feels like it cannot be replicated anywhere else. Perhaps because this is where I was originally rooted. July 4, 2024 — This story has been updated to remove mention of peppers in the US being massive due to the genetic engineering of crops. Got a <keyword id="22368221" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="personal-essay" source="keywords">personal essay</keyword> about <keyword id="21389910" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="relocating" source="keywords">relocating</keyword> that you want to share? Get in touch with the editor: <a target="_blank" href="mailto:akarplus@businessinsider.com">akarplus@businessinsider.com</a>.

I moved back to the US after 25 years in the UK. People abroad were more polite than Americans, but I never quite fit in there.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation has come down from pandemic highs, but one economist isn't expecting a return to 2%.</li><li>Rate cuts and other changes in the economy point to 3%+ long-term inflation, says Steven Blitz.</li></ul>For the last decade or so, the Federal Reserve's magic number for inflation has been 2%.The central bank has been aiming to keep the long-run inflation rate at this level to maintain stable prices and a healthy economy.And after the runaway prices of the pandemic era, it seems like the Fed is drawing closer to its 2% goal: the inflation rate was 2.4% for the 12-month period ending in September.However, don't count on a return to the 2% era, said Steven Blitz, chief economist at business intelligence firm GlobalData. Blitz believes the economy is on track for higher, not lower, long-term inflation."I think inflation is going to settle around 3%, 3.5%," Blitz told Business Insider in an interview. "There is now a higher base inflation rate than there was before COVID for a number of reasons."The Fed's rate-cutting campaign is certainly a contributing factor to higher future inflation, in Blitz's opinion. In the past, runaway inflation has only returned to 2% after the Fed engineered a hard landing that slowed consumer spending and wage growth, Blitz said. Financial historian <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-powell-mistake-1970s-runaway-stagflation-unemployment-interest-rates-2024-10">Mark Higgins</a> points out that when the Fed cut rates too quickly in the 1960s, inflation spiked and contributed to stagflation in the 1970s.But there are other factors contributing to an increased long-term inflation rate, many of which Blitz tracked even before the pandemic.Debt levels are creeping up, generating an inflationary effect by increasing demand and prices for goods. In terms of consumer and business debt, after the Great Financial Crisis, households and businesses focused on deleveraging their balance sheets, but this trend started reversing after the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2018, Blitz said. Reduced taxes incentivized spending and also increased the national debt. A higher national debt balance can erode confidence in the dollar, further increasing inflation.Changing demographics in the workplace are also driving increasing debt and higher long-term inflation, according to Blitz.The workforce is getting younger as Gen Z employees enter the market and baby boomers and Gen X employees retire, resulting in growing spending power from Gen Z.As millennials age and gain more income, they're entering their prime homebuying years."They're in that part of their life where they normally leverage their balance sheets to take in physical assets," Blitz said. And as more millennials start families and have children, their expenditures will only continue to increase. These demographic changes will stoke consumer demand and, subsequently, inflation.And lastly, inflation is creeping up thanks to changes in international trade, Blitz said. Import penetration, or the amount of foreign goods flowing into the US, is reaching a plateau. Importing cheap goods from overseas has a disinflationary effect by decreasing prices paid by consumers.Blitz believes import penetration in the US is near or has already reached peak levels, meaning that the deflationary impacts of international trade will be muted in the future. With trends such as nearshoring and reshoring driving companies to move their operations closer to domestic markets, import penetration could certainly decline.In Blitz's perspective, all of these factors add up to an inflation rate exceeding 2% going forward.<h2 id="42586d83-d9bb-4112-b404-1a3b9311f18b">Investing for higher inflation</h2>Investors could start seeing persistent inflation take hold within the next year, according to Blitz. The September jobs report is already one early sign of sticky inflation, especially wage inflation, in his opinion.There are a few ways that investors can prepare their portfolios.In a high-interest-rate environment, bonds are less attractive, Blitz said. Bonds suffer from inflation risk because inflation eats into interest rate payments, reducing their real yield. Higher inflation also pushes up yields as investors demand higher compensation, reducing the value of the assets.Instead, look towards the stock market, he said. While increased inflation might hurt the stock market overall, there are some pockets of equities that will benefit. Technology and value stocks typically perform well in the wake of higher inflation, according to Blitz.In a high-inflation environment, companies look to put their capital into more durable investments as the dollar depreciates. Blitz believes the chip industry in particular is an inflation-resilient choice because they supply assets critical to many supply chains.High inflation can be a boon to value stocks because it boosts businesses' margins."In a lower inflation environment, it's harder to grow revenue off of the nominal growth of the economy," Blitz said. That results in outperformance from growth stocks, which investors anticipate will increase profits at a substantially higher pace relative to the rest of the market.In a 3% to 3.5% inflation environment, there's more opportunity for overlooked value stocks to appreciate. High-quality value stocks with stable margins will actually receive a lift from rising prices, especially if they have good cost management, Blitz said.Those looking to increase their exposure to these areas of the stock market can do so through funds such as the iShares Semiconductor ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-semiconductor-etf-us4642875235?miRedirects=1">SOXX</a>) and the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/vanguard-value-index-fund-etf-shares-us9229087443?miRedirects=1">VTV</a>).

Why inflation isn't returning to pre-pandemic levels — and 3 trades to capitalize on an overheating economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new study found that teen girls' brains aged faster during the pandemic.</li><li>Researchers measured cortical thinning, a natural process that can be accelerated by stress.</li></ul>This week, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2403200121">new scientific paper</a> sent a ripple through the world of child psychology.Researchers at the University of Washington published brain scans of teenagers taken three years apart, in 2018 and 2021.The team expected significant findings, since the second scans were taken after all of the kids had their lives suddenly upended and socially stunted by COVID lockdowns.They hypothesized that girls would be more impacted, because they're more reliant on peer relationships for emotional support than teen boys. But "we didn't expect it to be as dramatic a difference," lead author Dr. Neva Corrigan told Business Insider.The average acceleration for teen girls was 4.2 years, compared to 1.4 for boys.While more research is needed, the study offers a glimpse into the effects the pandemic had on brain development. It comes at a time when teen girls have seen a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-report-teen-girls-alarming-rates-sadness-hopelessness-sexual-violence-2023-2">sharp rise in sadness and hopelessness</a>, often attributed to social media use.<h2 id="c81b7065-67f7-4f59-9455-c4636815bed5">Isolation may have played a role</h2>The original intention of the study was to track typical adolescent brain development, Corrigan, who specializes in MRI data acquisition and analysis, told BI. In 2018, her team took MRI data from 160 adolescents ages 9, 11, 13, 15, and 17, and planned to follow up at a later date.But after the pandemic, "we realized that we could no longer call this typical development," Corrigan said. "These kids had undergone a huge change in their lives." Her team knew they had a unique opportunity to examine how aspects of the pandemic, such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/public-teacher-homeschool-own-kids-2024-5">remote learning</a>, affected the brain.In 2021, about 130 of the subjects returned for more testing. The team measured cortical thinning, a natural process that usually begins in late childhood and is believed to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3791607/">improve cognitive performance</a>.The age acceleration was more than double the size in teen girls, and the regions most impacted were all related to social cognition, such as facial recognition and language comprehension.Because females generally rely more on <a target="_blank" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17328705/">relationships for emotional support</a> than males, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modern-loneliness">loneliness</a> during the pandemic could have caused teen girls more stress, speeding up their cortical thinning.<h2 id="ca6c015e-1e33-410a-957c-fdee9576f795">Cortical thinning isn't always negative</h2>Corrigan said there's a lot we still don't know about cortical thinning, such as whether it's reversible.However, she said past studies have shown that accelerated cortical thinning can put people at higher risk for neurodegenerative disorders in old age, such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.It can also increase the odds of developing psychiatric disorders such as depression or anxiety.At the same time, quicker brain aging isn't necessarily all bad. It's believed that the cortex thins to reduce the effect the environment has on brain development, Corrigan said. If the brain is less vulnerable to external stressors, "that could make these kids a little bit more resilient to stress," she said.<h2 id="47b59dfa-19bd-494b-98ab-6151b36b2682">There are still many unknowns</h2>Bradley S. Peterson, a pediatric psychiatrist at Children's Hospital Los Angeles who wasn't part of the study, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/health/teen-brains-pandemic-girls.html">The New York Times</a> that it had some limitations. One was that the data came from different subsets of the group, rather than measuring each individual's brain changes.The study also didn't track the participants' individual habits, so it can't confirm if other elements of the pandemic, such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surgeon-general-social-media-warning-label-mental-health-crisis-children-2024-6">increased screen time</a>, contributed to quicker cortical thinning.Corrigan said the biggest takeaway for parents is to be mindful of the potential risks of their teens developing anxiety or depression. "Perhaps they can help stave that off by talking to their kids and providing emotional support for them."

Brain scans show teen girls aged 4 years faster than boys during COVID lockdowns. We asked the researcher what that means long-term.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The decline of office values could match or exceed 2008-era depreciation, Fitch Ratings said.</li><li>If office real estate were to recover, it would be a more protracted rebound.</li></ul>The plunge in US office values could match or exceed 2008's real estate fallout, as prices have yet to bottom out, <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/us-office-cre-values-yet-to-trough-recovery-will-be-protracted-20-03-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fitch Ratings</a> wrote in a note on Wednesday.Office values have dropped an estimated 35% so far this cycle. While that's still above the 47% plunge witnessed during the Great Financial Crisis, the latest situation offers no reason to expect the descent to slow. "In contrast, property values had recovered to roughly 80% of their pre-crisis peak in this same timeframe following the GFC, having regained approximately half of their value declines," the ratings agency wrote.Instead, current values are near a four-year low, and Fitch expects any future recovery to be more protracted than what followed the 2008 crash. Extending the timeline is the endurance of remote work trends, bleak refinancing conditions, and significantly higher interest rates.According to Goldman Sachs estimates from late 2023, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/office-vacancy-commercial-real-estate-crash-remote-work-from-home-2023-8">share of US workers</a> still working from home is in the range of 20%-25%, significantly slashing the need for office space. These factors could permanently diminish property valuations and spark higher-than-expected losses on commercial mortgage-backed securities backed by loans on office properties. Fitch expects the CMBS delinquency rate to jump above the post-GFC peak. This year, the rate will jump from February's 3.6% to 8.1%, the agency said, before hitting 9.9% in 2025. "CMBS defaulted conduit office loans has increased since 2020, stretching beyond four years in 2022 compared to the pre-pandemic average of approximately 2.5 years between 2009 and 2019, indicating property liquidations and the realization of losses for office loans currently in default could play out through 2028 and beyond," Fitch said.Office sector challenges are part of broader distress in the commercial real estate space. Prices are facing their <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commerical-real-estate-property-price-drop-values-offices-defaults-delinquency-2024-1">steepest drop-off</a> in the last-half century, the IMF warned in January, as higher borrowing costs erode the availability of financing to the sector. Falling values and more expensive borrowing costs have caused many property owners to negotiate extensions of their loans past their original maturity date. But this may only be delaying an eventual crash, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-crash-property-price-drop-defaults-interest-rates-2024-1">analysts have warned</a>, with a $2.2 trillion wave of commercial real-estate debt set to mature in 2027. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-outlook-offices-commercial-debt-downturn-recession-wall-street-2024-3">Goldman Sachs wrote this week</a> that the trend of extending and modifying commercial mortgages can't continue much longer. Meanwhile, delinquent loans are already making up a larger portion of collateralized loan obligations, an investment product that groups riskier commercial real-estate debt. CLO distress <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/risky-commercial-real-estate-investments-are-getting-squeezed-as-the-market-collapses/amp_articleshow/108625645.cms">rocketed 440%</a> higher in the 12 months ahead of January.

The looming office-real-estate crash will be worse than the Global Financial Crisis decline, Fitch says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Research papers suspected of using AI are showing up in Google Scholar, according to a study.</li><li>Many discuss controversial topics that are susceptible to disinformation. </li></ul>Scientific papers suspected of using artificial intelligence are appearing in <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-scholar">Google Scholar</a>, one of the most popular academic search engines.A study published this month in the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/gpt-fabricated-scientific-papers-on-google-scholar-key-features-spread-and-implications-for-preempting-evidence-manipulation/?utm_source=tldrai">Harvard Kennedy School's Misinformation Review</a> said, "Academic journals, archives, and repositories are seeing an increasing number of questionable research papers clearly produced using generative AI.""They are often created with widely available, general-purpose AI applications, most likely ChatGPT, and mimic scientific writing," the study said.ChatGPT is a chatbot developed by <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-openai-company-chatgpt-elon-musk-founded-2022-12">OpenAI</a> that launched in 2022. The chatbot quickly went viral as users began drafting everything from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-workout-weight-loss-plan-legit-running-coach-2023-7">workout routines</a> to<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/weight-loss-meal-planning-chatgpt-pros-cons-ai-2023-6"> diet plans</a>. Other companies like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-senate-ai-forum-llama-2-gives-anthrax-instructions-2023-9?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=business-sf&amp;utm_source=facebook&amp;fbclid=IwY2xjawFP5t5leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHdqchumng37XDh46z8cz3B4uKCFjgNo63ZzX4_X51v27BRakspFbb8jGjQ_aem_KKsxqDilsYGJ6a0OzK0ecw">Meta</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-google-ceo-losing-ai-race-staff-work-from-home-2024-8">Google</a> now have their own competing large language models.<div type="image" title="Photo of a computer with ChatGPT." height="3777" width="5665" msid="113301772" hostid="261" sizebytes="128346"></div>Researchers gathered data by analyzing a sample of scientific papers pulled from Google Scholar that showed signs of GPT use. Specifically, scientific papers that included phrases considered common responses from ChatGPT or similar programs: "I don't have access to real-time data" and "as of my last knowledge update."From that sample, researchers identified 139 "questionable" papers listed as regular results on Google Scholar. "Most of these GPT-fabricated papers were found in non-indexed journals and working papers, but some cases included research published in mainstream scientific journals and conference proceedings," the study said. Many of the research papers involved controversial topics like health, computing, and the environment, which are "susceptible to disinformation," according to the study.While researchers acknowledged that the papers could be removed, they warned doing so could fuel conspiracy theories."As the rise of the so-called anti-vaxx movement during the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing obstruction and denial of climate change show, retracting erroneous publications often fuels conspiracies and increases the following of these movements rather than stopping them," the study said.Representatives for Google and OpenAI did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment.The study also identified two main risks from the "increasingly common" decision to use GPT to create "fake, scientific papers.""First, the abundance of fabricated 'studies' seeping into all areas of the research infrastructure threatens to overwhelm the scholarly communication system and jeopardize the integrity of the scientific record," the study said.The second risk involves the "increased possibility that convincingly scientific-looking content was in fact deceitfully created with AI tools and is also optimized to be retrieved by publicly available academic search engines, particularly Google Scholar.""However small, this possibility and awareness of it risks undermining the basis for trust in scientific knowledge and poses serious societal risks," the study said.

Fake GPT-written studies are flooding Google Scholar. Here's why taking them down could make things worse.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Fed's interest-rate hikes actually worsened inflation, said Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.</li><li>He called for the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in September.</li></ul>The Federal Reserve's aggressive campaign to curb inflation may have fueled the problem instead, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/nobel-laureate-joseph-stiglitz-wants-the-fed-to-deliver-a-big-rate-cut.html">Joseph Stiglitz told CNBC</a>.The Nobel-prize-winning economist called on the central bank to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its approaching policy meeting. Given that rates were driven up "too far, too fast," he said, "I believe that they have contributed to the problem of inflation."So far, investors are somewhat split on what the Fed will do on September 18th. Although a majority still anticipates a 25-basis-point cut, Friday's jobs report moved odds in favor of a 50-basis-point move. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a> now is now assigning a 47% probability to a half-point cut, in line with Stiglitz's urging.In recent weeks, labor data has become a linchpin for determining whether the US is creeping toward a recession.Friday's weaker-than-expected reading did not completely ease concerns, putting pressure on the Fed to ease policy quickly. The central bank does so when it needs to boost the economy.But Stiglitz, speaking ahead of the data's release, told CNBC that he would pursue deeper rate cuts regardless of Friday's report.In his view, Fed officials were correct in raising the borrowing rate during the pandemic, citing that it was a mistake to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels after the 2008 crisis.Since March 2022, the fed funds rate has climbed to a 5.25%-5.50% threshold."I thought that put the economy at risk for very little benefit, probably actually worsening inflation, ironically, because — if you looked more carefully at the sources of inflation — a big component was housing," Stiglitz noted.A key part of why the housing market keeps appreciating is a lack of homes, which will only be solved if home developers are given free rein to construct more properties, he said."Do you think raising interest rates making it more difficult for real estate developers to build more houses, homeowners to buy more houses, is going to solve the housing shortage?" Stiglitz said. "No, it's going in exactly the wrong way."In July, new home construction hit its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-outlook-new-home-construction-builder-confidence-covid-low-2024-8">lowest level since 2020</a>, as developers have stepped back amid low demand. Builder confidence also tanked to a December bottom, though experts anticipate that falling interest rates should eventually boost sentiment.Meanwhile, homebuyers appear sidelined as they wait for interest rate cuts to ease mortgage rates. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms">weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate has now hit 6.35%</a>, a drop from the 7% highs seen in May.

You Searched For "pandemic worse than COVID" and got 12 results

Scientists warn of bird flu pandemic that could be '100 times worse' than COVID after rare human case found in US

ANI

I swore I would leave the US if Trump won the 2016 election. Here's how that worked out for me.

Sonya Moore

Flying has never been worse — but hope is on the way

Emily Stewart

The city whose 'doom loop' just might be worse than San Francisco's

Jordan Pandy

99% of Americans will be financially worse-off than they were pre-pandemic by mid-2024, JPMorgan says

Phil Rosen

The luxury outlook in China just keeps getting worse

Lian Kit Wee

I moved back to the US after 25 years in the UK. People abroad were more polite than Americans, but I never quite fit in there.

Dana Mayer

Why inflation isn't returning to pre-pandemic levels — and 3 trades to capitalize on an overheating economy

Christine Ji

Brain scans show teen girls aged 4 years faster than boys during COVID lockdowns. We asked the researcher what that means long-term.

Julia Pugachevsky

The looming office-real-estate crash will be worse than the Global Financial Crisis decline, Fitch says

Filip De Mott

Fake GPT-written studies are flooding Google Scholar. Here's why taking them down could make things worse.

Lauren Edmonds

Deep rate cuts are necessary because the Fed's unprecedented hikes actually made inflation worse, Nobel-winning economist says

Filip De Mott

Popular Keywords

Buying Guides