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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The West's sanctions are pushing Russia to develop alternative payment systems with its trade partners.</li><li>Russia's SPFS and Mir systems, China's CIPS, and India's UPI help aim to challenge SWIFT's dominance.</li></ul>The West's tightening sanctions are driving Russia nearly up against the wall — but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Moscow keeps finding ways</a> to keep the country's economy going.Russia's trade partners, too, are looking for ways to continue doing business with the country via alternative systems to rival the Western-led, US dollar-dominated global financial order.Discussions about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/de-dollarization-reasons-why-countries-move-away-us-dollar-2023-7">de-dollarization</a> have been gaining traction in recent years as Western-led sanctions against Russia related to its invasion of Ukraine are making other countries wary of the potential consequences of crossing Washington.There's been some success, with trade between Russia and China, as well as Russia and India, chugging along until recently. Now, even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">Chinese banks</a> — buckling under the pressure of tightening US sanctions — are pushing back on processing transactions for Russian companies.But Russia and its partners have been looking at other ways to do business outside the Western-led order, in part because technology is making it easier to process payments and get around the US-dollar-dominated global financial order.As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-changing-role-of-the-us-dollar/">Brookings researchers</a> Sam Boocker and David Wessel explained in an August post, "innovations in payment technology could reduce the dollar's role in the global economy."To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/king-dollar-reign-supreme-3-reasons-dedollarization-fears-yuan-euro-2023-5">king dollar</a> is entrenched in the world's financial system, so it's unlikely to be dethroned, most experts say. However, new platforms are coming up that could chip away at its dominance.These are some of the alternative trading and payment systems that are trying to crack the US-led trade and payments order:<h2 id="e3db2e40-91e6-40ce-8ea6-bd2555a945d0">Russia set up SPFS and Mir years ago, citing 'risks'</h2>Russia prepared for even more sanctions years ago, following trade restrictions after it annexed Crimea in 2014."There are risks in using the global financial networks," Elvira Nabiullina, governor of Russia's central bank, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/23/russias-central-bank-governor-touts-moscow-alternative-to-swift-transfer-system-as-protection-from-us-sanctions.html">CNBC in 2018.</a> "Therefore, since back in 2014, we have been developing our own systems."Some Russian banks were banned from the SWIFT messaging system for banking transactions following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has been touting its homegrown ruble-based payment system — the System for Transfer of Financial Messages, or SPFS — that was set up in 2014.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina" height="3605" width="5408" msid="112978409" hostid="261" sizebytes="1587422"></div>At the end of 2023, users of SPFS included 556 organizations from 20 countries. Of these, 159 — about a quarter of total participants — were foreign and their use of the messaging system more than doubled from 2022, according to Russia's central bank, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/103040/">Interfax</a>.In July, Russia and Iran — another heavily-sanctioned country — finalized details to connect the banking systems of the two countries, Iran's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.mehrnews.com/news/217372/Iran-Russia-finalize-integration-of-national-payment-systems">Mehr news agency</a> reported.This means that Russia's Mir payment system would work with Iran's Shetab banking system, allowing for both pariah states to trade more smoothly.<h2 id="dc8236fe-da57-4f21-8a5f-0a2f6f46c77a">China's CIPS is growing quickly</h2>China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, is an alternative system that processes payments in Chinese yuan.Launched in 2015, CIPS has about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cips.com.cn/en/2024-08/01/article_2024080115043180408.html">2,000 participants as of July,</a> compared to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.swift.com/about-us">11,000 for SWIFT.</a>CIPS "has been growing rapidly in recent years," the Brookings researchers wrote.In 2023, CIPS processed over 6.6 million transactions, totaling 123 trillion Chinese yuan, or $17.3 trillion — up nearly 30% by value from a year ago, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688172/5188125/5327700/2024041216580199504.pdf">China's central bank.</a><h2 id="a578a224-e5df-4b31-8404-e02cff739d93">India's UPI is already used extensively</h2>India — now a key trading part of Russia — also has its own system.The country's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npci.org.in/what-we-do/upi/product-overview">Unified Payments Interface,</a> or UPI, was developed in 2016 and is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/29/tech/india-digital-payments-upi-growth-hnk-intl/index.html">used extensively</a> in India today, even among everyday consumers.The payment system has gotten so big that it's not just limited to India. The National Payments Corporation of India, which runs the platform, has partnered with financial institutions in other countries, including France, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore.<div type="image" title="A man behind piles of fruits at his stall in India that features a QR payment code." height="701" width="1024" msid="112978412" hostid="261" sizebytes="98408"></div>If the UPI's footprint expands to more countries, it could be a way to bypass the SWIFT banking system, wrote Evan Freidin, an international relations analyst, for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-s-plan-world-without-cash">Lowy Institute,</a> an Australian think tank."It is significant that UPI can also be used to bypass the SWIFT banking system, enabling payments with sanctioned countries such as Russia, thereby weakening US financial hegemony," Freidin wrote in July.<h2 id="48c27799-0d46-40f6-b4b7-e9225b102131">Central banks are looking at digital currencies</h2>Countries are also increasingly looking to build central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs. These currencies are similar to cryptocurrencies but are <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/11/cbdcs-how-different-cryptocurrency-stablecoin/">issued and backed by central banks</a>.The <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/cbdcs-crypto-central-banks-bis-digital-currencies-bitcoin-stablecoins-tether-2021-9">Bank for International Settlements,</a> an organization of central banks, is overseeing the trial of a CBDC platform for wholesale cross-border payment.Participants of the project, called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-arabia-joins-bis-led-central-bank-digital-currency-trial-2024-06-05/">mBridge,</a> include China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. It's dominated by Beijing, which has already rolled out the digital Chinese yuan.<div type="image" title="Woman with a face mask using a touch screen at an exhibition booth for the e-renminbi." height="746" width="1024" msid="112978411" hostid="261" sizebytes="54016"></div>The Brookings researchers wrote that these CBDCs could "upend the dollar's role as a currency 'middleman' by reducing settlement times, making it cheaper and easier to trade non-dollar currencies."The CBDCs integrate messaging and payments, unlike current systems like SWIFT and major US dollar clearing system CHIPS.<h2 id="67caf2a1-65f8-470a-8a88-3f2e381242e9">Russia rushes into crypto</h2>As doors to transact in fiat money close, Russia is now looking to trade in cryptocurrencies.It's in such a rush to get the system up and running that it plans to start crypto exchange trials as soon as September 1, anonymous sources told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-26/russia-close-to-starting-trials-of-crypto-payments-exchanges?srnd=homepage-americas">Bloomberg in late August.</a>Creating this mode of payment has gotten more pressing because even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">banks from China</a> are rejecting most transactions with Russian entities.<a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74566">Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> himself said in July that Russia had to <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1818055">"seize the moment"</a> to create a legal framework for digital assets, as they are being increasingly used to settle international payments.<h2 id="15b13f44-3051-4887-85cf-66563ce70c10">Going back to barter trade</h2>If all else fails, there's also the age-old method of barter trade.In August, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/first-russia-china-barter-trade-may-come-this-autumn-sources-say-2024-08-08/">Reuters</a> reported that Russia and China are planning to revive the practice of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-russia-china-barter-trade-us-secondary-sanctions-payments-2024-8">barter trade</a> to get around Western sanctions.The deals could involve agriculture and could come as soon as this fall, the news agency reported, citing anonymous trade and payments sources.The two countries are no strangers to barter.It was practiced during the <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/soviet-union-allows-return-barter-some-trading-deals-partners-former-e-bloc_19910708.html">Soviet era</a> and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/1998/09/06/world/as-ruble-withers-russians-survive-on-barter.html">in the years following the bloc's collapse.</a> At the time, China was a key trading partner.In August 2022, the <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taliban-import-russia-oil-barter-exchange-afghanistan-raisin-minerals-medicine-2022-8">Taliban regime in Afghanistan</a> also discussed barter trade with Russia that could involve trading Russian crude oil products in exchange for raisins, minerals, and medicinal herbs, according to RIA Novosti, a Russian state-owned news agency.Last year, cash-strapped <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-allows-barter-trade-with-iran-afghanistan-russia-/7120806.html">Pakistan</a> authorized the barter trade of specific goods with Russia.In 2019, China <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/currencies/china-in-barter-deal-for-200000-tonnes-of-malaysian-palm-oil-report-idUSKCN1T22W0/">traded $150 million worth of palm oil</a> from Malaysia for a range of products and services, including natural resources and defense equipment.

Countries from Russia to China are building payments systems that could threaten the dollar's global dominance

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are meeting in Kazakhstan Wednesday. </li><li>It comes amid increasing tensions between two of the group's most powerful members. </li></ul>The leaders of a club of countries touted by Russia and China as a counterweight to Western global power are meeting this week in Kazakhstan.At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Kazakhstan's capital Astana, Russia's President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet China's President Xi Jinping.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-arrives-kazakhstan-russia-china-dominated-sco-summit-2024-07-03/">During their discussion, they will reportedly </a>seek ways to expand the organization as part of their shared mission to roll back US global power.But despite their "no limits" partnership brokered over shared enmity toward the US and its NATO allies, there are growing differences between frenemies Putin and Xi.<h2 id="0cd26d3b-51d1-4175-99ae-48c549e8681e">Ukraine has shifted the balance of power</h2>The leaders are in fierce competition for influence over the original members of the SCO — the Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.The SCO was formed as a regional security pact, but has in recent years expanded to include India, Pakistan, and Iran. Belarus, another opponent of NATO, is expected to be admitted this week.The Central Asian republics were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are seen as traditionally part of the Kremlin's sphere of influence.But the Ukraine war has shifted the balance of power.Russia's Ukraine invasion has eaten up the Kremlin's resources, money, and energy, while countries trading with Russia run the risk of incurring Western sanctions.Meanwhile, Beijing has been quietly seizing advantage, brokering trade deals, and building political influence in the region."The war in Ukraine has proven to the central Asian countries that the diversification of their ties with the world is key to their successful existence in the region," Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/03/xi-jinping-central-asia-trip-china-vies-regional-influence-russia">told The Guardian.</a>China is building car plants and power stations in Ukbekistan and Kazakhstan, brokering surveillance software deals, and expanding its direct railway line into Kazakhstan, to further strengthen trade links.Trade between China and Central Asia grew by 27% in 2023 to $89 billion, <a target="_blank" href="https://eurasianet.org/china-reports-robust-trade-growth-with-central-asian-states">according to Chinese customs data.</a>Although Russia is likely to be concerned by the developments, it cannot do much about them.<h2 id="70abeace-ebc2-43fc-a254-07ca4ddc7271">A lopsided partnership</h2>Russia has become increasingly dependent on China for diplomatic and economic support amid attempts by the West to isolate it over the Ukraine war."The importance of Chinese aid and indirect support for Ukraine takes precedence for Moscow and will shape its approach toward Beijing as long as the confrontation with the West continues," wrote Emil Avdaliani, a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, in January for <a target="_blank" href="https://cepa.org/article/china-uses-crises-to-build-central-asia-influence/">the Centre for European Policy Analysis.</a>Russia is seeking to strengthen trade with the Central Asian republics and, according to reports, is using them to obtain goods banned under Western sanctions. But it can't compete with China's economic might.While Russia has brandished its ties with China as proof of the failure of the West to isolate it, it's a friendship that comes at a steep cost."We are friends with Russia but at the same time, we are looking for opportunities," Mirshohid Aslanov, founder of the Tashkent-based think tank Center for Progressive Reform, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/beijing-and-moscow-go-from-no-limits-friendship-to-frenemies-in-russias-backyard-52b3f1a4?st=4s1fan3skw96t37&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink">The Wall Street Journal.</a> "Very eagerly, we are looking eastwards."

Russia's frenemy China is quietly trying to dampen Putin's influence

<keyword id="21333142" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indias-population" source="keywords">India's population</keyword> is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about <keyword id="22386427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-7-billion" source="keywords">1.7 billion</keyword> and then decline by 12%, but the country will remain the world's most populous throughout the century, the <keyword id="19896118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="United-Nations" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="United Nations" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="United Nations">United Nations</keyword> has said. The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released on Thursday, said that the world's population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, significantly up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. India, which surpassed <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> as the world's most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position through 2100. "The population of India, which is expected to remain the world's largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12% after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion," the <keyword id="19898339" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UN" source="keywords">UN</keyword> report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), <keyword id="271075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="population-division" source="Orion">Population Division</keyword> said. According to the report, India's population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India's population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth. Responding to a question by PTI on population projections for India, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, <keyword id="6355835" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="un" source="Orion">UN</keyword> DESA Clare Menozzi said at a press conference that "India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it's supposed to increase further to 1.69 billion. "It's supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline. So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but will still the largest country in the world by a large margin." The report said that China's population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100. "It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world's second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million)," followed by <keyword id="6355311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Japan" source="Orion">Japan</keyword> (21 million) and <keyword id="6358826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> (10 million). "Longer-range population projections are more uncertain" for China, it said. "However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than a half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s (50% probability)." Responding to a question on the significantly low population projection for China, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA John Wilmoth said that "it really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China. The current number is right around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime." "Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they come up slightly, any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long run decline that's quite significant. And that's true for China. It's true for some other countries in this analysis," Wilmoth said. Currently, nearly one-fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, are experiencing what is sometimes referred to as "ultra-low" fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime. The report added that the global fertility rate currently stands at 2.25 live births per woman, down from 3.31 births in 1990. "More than half of all countries and areas globally have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman. This is the level required for a population to maintain a constant size in the long run (without migration), with each generation being followed by another of roughly equal size," it said. Pakistan is projected to overtake the US as the third-largest country in the world, with a population of 389 million in 2054. Currently, the US is the third largest country in the world with a population of 345 million and in 2054, it will be the fourth largest with 384 million people. Pakistan will remain the third largest country in the world, with a population of 511 million people in 2100. The report said that the estimated likelihood that the world's population will peak within the current century is very high, with a probability of 80%, a major change in UN projections from a decade ago, when this probability was around 30%. The size of the world's population in 2100 is now expected to be 6%smaller - or about 700 million people fewer - than anticipated a decade ago. In about 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100. This group includes several of the world's most populous countries: India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America. In 2023, the global number of deaths among children under age 5 fell below 5 million for the first time in recent history. However, 95% of such deaths took place in the 126 countries with populations that are still growing, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report added that globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. Since 2022, life expectancy has returned to levels observed before the emergence of the coronavirus disease in nearly all countries and areas. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth fell to 70.9 years, down from 72.6 in 2019. The report said that by 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18. "By the late 2070s, the number of persons at ages 65 years and higher globally is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under age 18). By the mid-2030s, it is projected that there will be 265 million persons aged 80 years or older, more than the number of infants (1 year of age or less)," it said.

India's population to peak in early 2060s to 1.7 billion before declining: UN

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Russia to visit its president Vladimir Putin. </li><li>It's a visit that risks annoying India's ally the US. </li></ul>When India's prime minister arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, he greeted Russia's famously chilly president, Vladimir Putin, with an exuberant bear hug.It was a move likely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">to rile the US, </a>India's most important geopolitical ally, which has placed pressure on New Delhi to loosen its ties with Russia over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's fear of China — a key Russian ally — means that he's willing to risk American anger to keep Putin close."New Delhi sees Moscow as an important buffer in their relationship due to Moscow's strong ties with Beijing," Sarang Shidore, an analyst at the Quincy Institute, told Business Insider."It is not in Russia's interest to have China and India at loggerheads, so it could, to a degree, act as a restraining agent."<h2 id="0ad4840d-1eb0-4f3e-a27c-3953a5a682f0">India ignores US pressure to cut Russia ties</h2>During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was among India's most important allies, with the Kremlin providing military support during India's clashes with Pakistan.They've remained close ever since, but the relationship is being tested anew in the fallout from the Ukraine war.The US has attempted to persuade India to take part <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">in its campaign to isolate</a> Russia over the Ukraine invasion — but with little success."Russia is one of India's oldest strategic partners, and New Delhi wants to maintain this relationship regardless of Russia's diplomatic isolation following the war in Ukraine," Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI.India has increased its purchase of Russian goods, including oil and fertilizer, at reduced prices after the US imposed sanctions on Russia.It continues to buy Russian armaments, with around <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/more-than-60-70-of-india-armed-forces-equipped-with-russian-origin-weapons-indian-envoy/articleshow/76903811.cms?from=mdr">70% of its weapons systems believed to be Russian</a>-made, and its military reliant on the Kremlin for spare parts and upgrades."Taking a hardline position against Russia could have both economic and security ramifications for India," said Richard Rossow, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<h2 id="a68bd311-605c-44db-97ac-44c2056c27c0">China's threat to India increases</h2>The threat from Chinese leader Xi Jinping is another key factor in Modi's determination to ignore US pressure and retain good ties with Putin.China's regional might is growing, and it's menacing India, Asia's other major economic power.In 2020, a long-simmering border dispute resulted in deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese troops. China ha<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">s bolstered its presence in the Indian Ocean</a>, and the two are jostling for influence in countries in the region.China has built stronger ties with Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, hoping a Russian victory<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> will damage US power and enhance its own global</a> might. And it's this friendship Modi's seeking to drive a wedge between."There is a real chance of future conflicts, and India would prefer to avoid Russia exporting advanced military hardware to China," said Rossow.Some Indian analysts believe that China poses a greater threat to Russia than NATO in the long term and that India can exploit those differences."The Russia-China 'alliance' may be short-term in nature, and that historical conflicts between the two, such as over their long border and under-developed natural resources in Russia's east, will resurface and trigger renewed tensions," said Morrow.But for the time being, Russia's new "no limits"<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2"> partnership has got Modi worried</a>, and he'll likely be hoping for a swift end to the Ukraine war. By maintaining good relations with Putin he's hoping he can contain the fallout."The war does not at all benefit its interests. The war also opens the door to legitimizing violations of territorial integrity, and endangers a principle that New Delhi has backed strongly," said Shidore.

Fear of China is behind India's exuberant display of friendship with Vladimir Putin 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Azerbaijan's biggest arms supplier has been Russia but it will likely acquire jets from elsewhere.</li><li>The rumored deal suggests the longtime ally is detaching more from Moscow, a defense analyst said.</li></ul>The small, oil-rich South Caucasus country of Azerbaijan has big plans to upgrade its modest fleet of fighter jets over the next decade. However, rather than turn to Russia, its traditional arms supplier for decades, Baku will likely acquire modern fighters from Pakistan and Turkey.The turn away from Russia shows that longtime allies like Azerbaijan are finding effective arms sellers who aren't afflicted by the problems of Russia's newest fighter jets.Unconfirmed reports in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.azernews.az/nation/222206.html">Azerbaijani</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://pakobserver.net/pakistan-seals-1-6-billion-deal-with-azerbaijan-to-sell-jf-17-fighter-jets/">Pakistani</a> media surfaced in late February claiming Azerbaijan reached a deal with Pakistan to buy an undisclosed number of JF-17C Thunder fighter jets for $1.6 billion. Azerbaijan <a target="_blank" href="https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/turkish-5th-gen-fighter-kaan-completes-maiden-flight/">officially joined</a> Turkey's TF Kaan fifth-generation fighter program last July, strongly suggesting it will acquire that jet. The Kaan made its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a46961799/turkeys-very-first-fighter-jet-made-its-history-shattering-flight/">maiden flight</a> in February.Russia previously <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defenseone.com/business/2024/02/will-azerbaijan-buy-pakistani-fighter-jets/394504/">marketed</a> the 4.5-generation Su-30SM, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.azernews.az/nation/163963.html">Su-35, and MiG-35</a> fighters to Azerbaijan in the late 2010s. Azerbaijan's president said in 2018 that his country had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2021/arms-transfers-conflict-zones-case-nagorno-karabakh">spent $5 billion</a> on Russian military hardware. But now it doesn't seem likely Baku will turn to Moscow for 4.5-generation aircraft. Azerbaijan is even less likely to invest in Russia's troubled 5th-generation Su-57 or Su-75 "Checkmate" jets.Russia has been Azerbaijan's largest arms supplier until recent years, said Frederico Borsari, a defense expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)."However, things have progressively changed as Russia launched a reckless war of aggression against Ukraine and started to lose influence among countries in the Caucasus amidst growing difficulties in Ukraine and financial constraints," Borsari told Business Insider. "Turkey, among others, has exploited this situation from a security standpoint and started to expand its military cooperation with Baku, including through weapons sales."Consequently, Turkish sales to Azerbaijan began increasing in 2017, while Russian arms exports halted around 2019."Against this backdrop, the rumored JF-17 purchase from Pakistan further consolidates this trend of progressive detachment from Moscow's fold and may also be the result of the poor performance of Russian aircraft (and the air force overall) in Ukraine," Borsari said.Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military-aviation journalist, says it is understandable if Azerbaijan decides to use its oil wealth to overhaul its manned fighter fleet until the Kaan begins rolling off production lines "in quantity" around 2033."Given close relations with Turkey and ambivalent ones with Russia, its preference for the latter is understandable, particularly given Russia's own problems bringing Su-57s into service," Roblin told Insider.Roblin noted that Azerbaijan faces "tricky considerations" when weighing a "politically reliable vendor" for new fighters."Neither Russia nor Western democracies are ideal suppliers, even though Russia has historically sold arms to Azerbaijan," Roblin told Insider. "Pakistan and Turkey, and through Pakistan, China, may seem like more reliable partners for Baku unlikely to cut off deals due to upset over human rights issues or future potential wars with Armenia."Borsari said Azerbaijan's participation in the Kaan project is "first and foremost the natural consequence of a long-standing and growing security partnership" between Ankara and Baku that stems from their close political and diplomatic ties. Turkey provided training and arms that enabled Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia's armed forces in the 2020 war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave."For both countries, this appears to be a win-win solution," Borsari said. "This choice would allow long-term and robust cooperation that ensures the sustainability of Baku's air force in terms of logistics, training, maintenance, etc, with a close ally while providing Turkey with a long-term contract and client in the defense sector."The CEPA analyst noted that "prospective problems" in the Russian military aircraft industry, the "huge disappointment surrounding the Su-57," and the "poor performance" of other Russian fighters in Ukraine are other possible factors that pushed Baku "to opt for Turkey's project."While Russia has promoted the Su-57 as its answer to America's F-22 and F-35, the fifth-generation fighter has exhibited some severe shortcomings. Analysts have noted it lacks fifth-generation engines, and its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fifth-generation-jets-made-ukraine-war-russia-su-57-missing-2023-10">body panels are not placed tightly enough together</a> to reduce the aircraft's radar cross-section — a key feature in any stealth aircraft.An Azerbaijani acquisition of the JF-17, which the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China's Chengdu Aircraft Corporation jointly developed, would also be significant.<div type="image" title="A Sukhoi Su-57 jet fighter performs during the MAKS 2021 air show in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, Russia, July 25, 2021." height="4055" width="5688" msid="108280461" hostid="261"></div>Azerbaijan's neighbor and rival Armenia acquired four Su-30SMs in 2020. The Su-30SM is more advanced than Azerbaijan's MiG-29s, although they did not face off against each other in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war."The JF-17 is a modernization of the MiG-21/J-7 airframe with 4th-generation technology," Roblin said. "It doesn't outmatch the bigger, faster, heavier-payload lifting Su-30 twin-engine fighter in terms of raw performance and maximum radar search range."Nevertheless, the Block III version Azerbaijan is set to acquire has significant advantages. Roblin noted its newer systems could give it an "electronics edge" over the Su-30SM, especially its powerful and purportedly jam-resistant KLJ-7A active electronically scanned array radar. Furthermore, if paired with China's PL-15E air-to-air missile, it could match Russia's equivalent."So, while not strictly an overmatch, JF-17Cs could hold their own against Armenian Su-30SMs to the extent that it would depend on tactics and training used by both sides in the event of an air war," Roblin said. "By contrast, Azerbaijan's Soviet-vintage MiG-29s purchased from Ukraine, while sound aircraft broadly speaking, have older electronics than the Su-30SMs and much inferior radar."These latest rumors of Azerbaijan's interest in the JF-17 signal that Baku wants the former aircraft to replace its aging MiG-29s and serve as a stopgap solution until the Kaan is available.

A traditional Russian ally snubbed Moscow's latest fighter jets for competitors from Pakistan and Turkey 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The UAE is boosting ties with China's air force.</li><li>It could be a scheme to increase pressure to buy the US F-35 stealth fighter.</li></ul>The United Arab Emirates is expanding air force ties with China in what may be a scheme to brighten their dim prospects of acquiring F-35 Lightning II stealth jets from the United States. However, this developing cooperation will not likely result in Abu Dhabi ordering alternative fifth-generation fighters from Beijing.Major General Saleh Mohammed bin Mejren Al Ameri, commander of the UAE's Joint Operations, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.janes.com/amp/uae-seeks-closer-air-force-ties-with-china-as-leaders-meet-in-beijing/ZnlJK3dHVU9mZ28xajRJVkc5dVI5VFp1cVMwPQ2">met</a> with the commander of China's People's Liberation Army Air Force on April 23 to promote closer air force cooperation.The meeting occurred as the UAE's prospects for acquiring F-35s "may be getting slimmer," according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2024/05/01/emirati-f-35-prospects-languish-amid-high-stakes-chinese-us-courting/">one analysis</a>. Another even <a target="_blank" href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-j-20-stealth-fighter-could-soon-be-headed-middle-east-210712">speculated</a> Abu Dhabi may eventually seek China's premier stealth fighter: the fifth-generation J-20 Mighty Dragon.The US approved a $19 billion deal to sell 50 F-35s and 18 MQ-4B drones to the UAE in January 2021. However, the deal hasn't materialized amid Washington's growing concern about China's central role in Emirati 5G infrastructure and suspicions that Beijing is establishing a military base there. On the other hand, Abu Dhabi has grown frustrated with American preconditions about the extent of its technical cooperation with China.The UAE ordered 80 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/frances-rafale-fighter-jet-popular-dassault-cant-keep-up-2024-3">Dassault Rafales</a> from France in December 2021. It has also bought 12 L-15 trainer jets from Beijing and participated in a joint air force training exercise in China for <a target="_blank" href="http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/16241137.html">the first time</a> in 2023. Such moves did little to assuage Washington's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warns-middle-eastern-partners-about-buying-chinese-weapons-2023-8">concerns</a> about expanding defense ties between China and its Arab Gulf allies.Nevertheless, Abu Dhabi's budding ties don't suggest it is replacing its Western military hardware with Chinese alternatives."The main factor to consider here is that, unlike US policymakers, the UAE doesn't see arms purchases from China as a zero-sum deal," Ahmed Aboudouh, associate fellow at Chatham House and head of the China Studies Unit at the Emirates Policy Center, told Business Insider. "Abu Dhabi's first choice would certainly be to acquire the F-35 sale over any Chinese equivalent."Aboudouh noted that approaching China to discuss procuring advanced arms is driven by Washington's hesitance to provide Abu Dhabi with alternatives, which the UAE views as "crucial" based on "national security considerations and high regional volatility."<div type="image" title="The French multirole fighter Rafale F3R Marine lands on the tarmac of the Lann-Bihoue French Navy airbase in western France on January 12." height="1333" width="2000" msid="109959346" hostid="261" sizebytes="90578"></div>Furthermore, Abu Dhabi wants its "balancing strategy" between Washington and Beijing to pay off.Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military-aviation journalist, also sees Abu Dhabi's balancing act in play."The nature of the relationship with the Gulf states and the US is that they nurture secondary ties with China and Russia to create additional pressure on Washington to sell to them, as one might flirt with a third party to attract the jealous attention from a partner," Roblin told BI.Both analysts see little significance in the L-15 acquisition and joint exercises."I still see the bilateral relations between the air forces as very superficial and symbolic," Aboudouh said. "Strategic depth in military partnerships takes time to build. I don't see this relationship developing into something similar to what the UAE Air Force has with France or even Russia anytime soon."Roblin pointed out that while the L-15s are "respectable advanced trainers sold at a bargain unit price," they lack the benefit of "common systems" with the F-16 and Rafale jets, which Emirati fighter pilots will eventually graduate to fly. Furthermore, the Emirati air force fighter fleet is already large for such a small country, making it unlikely the L-15s will serve any combat role."So the sale, like the common exercises, serves as a warning signal to the US that the UAE may take its money elsewhere," Roblin said. "Of course, there's a risk of that backfiring and convincing Washington it can't be trusted with more advanced US hardware like the F-35 if ties with China grow too cozy."Aboudouh believes it's "hard to predict" if the UAE might eventually acquire fifth-generation Chinese aircraft."The main factor at play here is the US vision for its military relations with the UAE," Aboudouh said. "In other words, at a time of extensive debate on a US-Saudi defense pact potentially signed soon, the UAE would be interested in a similar deal. Will the US, in turn, deem signing this deal with Abu Dhabi a strategic necessity to curb Abu Dhabi's expanding military cooperation with Beijing?"Roblin also believes the "much-touted" Saudi defense pact could prove pivotal. If the deal is realized and leads to a Saudi F-35 sale, that could "indicate potential" for the UAE finally getting the fifth-generation American aircraft, too, provided it "locks out certain exchanges" with Beijing — such as Chinese radars and aircraft that could expose the F-35's stealth.There is also the salient fact that China hasn't exported any stealth fighters and Beijing will not likely offer the J-20 for export. It will likely sell the export version of its lighter J-35, the FC-31, which Pakistan is reportedly interested in procuring, but those haven't entered operational service yet."The UAE also had a stake in Russia's Su-75 'export stealth fighter' pitched prior to 2022, but it doesn't seem appealing between risks of Western sanctions and Russian mass-production issues related to the war in Ukraine," Roblin said.He suggested South Korea's KF-21 or Turkey's TF Kaan fighter projects could offer "less geopolitically fraught options" to the UAE. The Emirates is already <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2023/09/15/uae-reportedly-seeking-role-in-south-koreas-kf-21-fighter-jet-program/">reportedly interested</a> in investing in the KF-21.The UAE would probably not be interested in procuring advanced fourth-generation Chinese fighters either, especially given the enormous Rafale order it just signed.Roblin also questioned why the UAE would buy jets like the J-10 and J-16 from China when it already has access to equivalent or superior Western jets like the F-15EX, F-16V, and, of course, the Rafale."Introducing such Chinese aircraft dependent on different weapons and communication ecosystems would be logistically senseless unless there was a broader project to convert to a Chinese fleet," Robin said."But I'm skeptical the UAE would go all-in in that direction."

A US ally is forging ties with China's air force but probably won't get its J-20 stealth fighter 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Olga Loiek, a college student with a YouTube channel, says she's being used for deepfakes in China.</li><li>She's not the only one. Multiple caucasian women feature in pro-Russia deepfakes on China's internet.</li></ul>Olga Loiek was barely awake one mid-winter morning when she read a cryptic Instagram message."Do you speak any Mandarin?" it read in English.Loiek had received similar messages in weeks prior from self-professed fans of her small YouTube channel, where she uploads self-empowerment videos to just over 15,000 subscribers.Confusingly, several of those comments also lauded her command of the Chinese language.Loiek doesn't speak Chinese at all, the 20-year-old student told Business Insider from her apartment in Munich.But this last message — sent in late January — was a warning, not a compliment. Someone may be trying to impersonate you, it said.That message included a link to a video on Xiaohongshu, a social media platform rapidly gaining steam in China. The clip appeared to show Loiek speaking to the camera in Chinese as photos of the Kremlin and Russian leader Vladimir Putin jumped on-screen."At first, I kind of felt like, oh, it's just a funny trick. But then I started translating it," Loeik said. Bearing her face, the woman in the video spoke glowingly of Sino-Russian ties, bemoaning sanctions on Moscow while selling Russian products on a store page.To Loeik, who is Ukrainian, it was outrageous. "I felt violated because these were things I would never, never say in my life," she said.<div type="image" title="Loiek attends a rally in support of Ukraine, her home country." height="2793" width="3724" msid="108773463" hostid="261" sizebytes="310942"></div>Abuse of deepfakes, a swiftly developing technology that uses AI to replicate a person's likeness virtually, has been documented for years.But the crossover between Western faces and Chinese accounts presents a new layer of complexity, because China's social media ecosystem is largely walled off from the world.<h2>Deepfakes behind the Great Firewall</h2>To China's<a target="_blank" href="https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202308/28/content_WS64ec5126c6d0868f4e8dee21.html"> estimated 1.08 billion internet users</a>, YouTube and Instagram are blocked and replaced by moderated alternatives to international platforms. There's WeChat for WhatsApp and Facebook, Weibo for X, and Xiaohongshu as a mix of TikTok and Instagram.On these Chinese platforms, deepfakes of non-Chinese women can often go undetected since viewers may not easily recognize the original person. Meanwhile, the creator is less likely to discover their face has been stolen because they, in turn, do not typically access the Chinese platforms where the theft is happening."In an 'open world' social media environment, when someone's deepfake shows up, we can very easily demonstrate this is not real because we can find the original person," said Lyu Siwei, a computer science professor who runs the Media Forensics Lab at the University at Buffalo. "But inside China, because it's not so easy for Chinese users to go beyond the Great Firewall, they will not be able to do that cross-validation."Lyu and another AI researcher, Haibing Lu of Santa Clara University, told BI that over the last six months, they've observed what they suspect are other deepfakes of women on Chinese platforms like Douyin, China's version of TikTok.Loiek's case shows that at least some of these deepfakes are non-consensual, they said.The account that ran deepfakes of Loiek was described on Xiaohongshu as Natasha, a 31-year-old Russian woman who lives in China's Heilongjiang province. The account had 140,00 followers — more than Loeik's actual page. A store page affiliated with the account sold Russian candies for $3.60 per packet.<div type="image" title="Left: Loiek speaks in a YouTube Short uploaded on her channel. Right: A deepfake of Loiek touts Russians celebrating the Lunar New Year." height="1440" width="1920" msid="108773464" hostid="261" sizebytes="86642"></div>Dozens of videos on "Natasha's" page contained telltale signs of digital manipulation. For one, in these videos, Loiek's lips are not always synced to the voiceover, which is in a mainland Chinese accent. There are times when the software fails, and her intonation is flat. The audio quality is also close to perfect, with no breathing sounds or background noise, which the two researchers said was a red flag."It was so creepy because I was literally seeing my face talk about things I would never condone," Loiek said.<h2>From one woman comes a dozen Russians</h2>Loeik, who studies cognitive neuroscience at the University of Pennsylvania but is now in Germany for an internship, is unsure why these Xiaohongshu accounts chose her.But whoever targeted Loiek found her fledgling YouTube channel in a matter of weeks.The student started her self-empowerment channel in November and has so far published eight videos and seven YouTube Shorts.In a<a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FQSFnZpsqw&amp;t=385s"> YouTube video she uploaded in late January</a>, Loiek asked her followers to help report the Natasha account. The dupe was removed from Xiaohongshu by February 25.And while "Natasha" is gone, other accounts also bearing Loiek's face have cropped up. Loiek said she's discovered about 30 other accounts on Xiaohongshu that use her face and claim to be Russian.<div type="image" title="Left: Olga Loiek speaks in a YouTube Short on her channel. Right: A deepfake of Loiek tells Chinese viewers to buy Russian candies." height="1440" width="1920" msid="108773465" hostid="261" sizebytes="73238"></div>BI has seen some of them. There is April Annie, the Russian woman who moved to China eight years ago; Sophia Elena, who gushes about Russian ladies wanting to marry Chinese men; and Katyusha, who praises China and Russia's partnership. All use deepfakes of Loiek.The Xiaohongshu deepfakes of other YouTubers do the same. The perpetrators seem to target female creators who upload easily accessible content of themselves but aren't major celebrities.These accounts aren't hard to find, as the Xiaohongshu app often suggests pages similar to the one you're already viewing. In a matter of about 10 minutes, BI found deepfake videos of at least five caucasian women on Xiaohongshu. In all of these videos, the deepfake doppelgangers fawned over and praised Russia and China.Lana Blakely is one of them. Blakely is a Stockholm-based content creator who has 1.6 million subscribers on YouTube, where she discusses topics like self-reflection and managing relationships. But at least one Chinese deepfake version of Blakely has a different agenda to share on Xiaohongshu."When we were young, we learned in school that China and Russia are brothers in hardship," a deepfake version of Blakely says in Chinese in a video BI viewed.<div type="image" title="Left: A deepfake of Lana Blakely found on Xiaohongshu features her talking about Russian women wanting to marry Chinese men. Right: A screenshot of Blakely's Instagram page." height="1440" width="1920" msid="108773466" hostid="261" sizebytes="132502"></div>London-based Elizabeth Filips, who has 950,000 subscribers on YouTube, uploads videos covering neuroscience tips and personal improvement. On Xiaohongshu, an account posted deepfakes of her discussing China's international relations."China has three good friends. The first is good brother Pakistan, there is good brother Serbia, and lastly, the good brothers China and Russia," said a deepfake version of Filips in one video.<div type="image" title="Left: A deepfake of Elizabeth Filips receives warm praise from Chinese users. Right: A screenshot of Filips' Instagram page." height="1440" width="1920" msid="108773467" hostid="261" sizebytes="184694"></div>Blakely declined through her talent management agency to comment. Filips did not respond to requests for comment sent by BI.On the dozens of videos reviewed by BI, not a single Chinese user commented with suspicions that the clips were manipulated."The messages are consistent with what they're already exposed to, that China is great," said Lyu. "And I think on top of that is that a beautiful young woman of foreign origins is speaking Chinese. That adds to the curiosity factor and attracts Chinese viewers."When asked about the deepfakes, a Xiaohongshu spokesperson told BI: "As artificial intelligence has continued to develop, Xiaohongshu encourages and values its innovations. At the same time, many risks have emerged due to AI-generated content on online platforms."They pointed to the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.xiaohongshu.com/en/community_guidelines"> platform's guidelines</a>, which prohibit impersonation and posting content that is not "based on real experiences."<h2>Origins still obscured</h2>Though Loiek succeeded in shutting down the Natasha account, the people creating these videos are still a mystery.New accounts purporting to be her surface occasionally. One<a target="_blank" href="https://www.xiaohongshu.com/user/profile/65aea7610000000014007b32?xhsshare=CopyLink&amp;appuid=64520c5f0000000012035bf6&amp;apptime=1709886673"> account</a> that once used her face as a profile picture started uploading videos of cats.<div type="image" title="Videos of Loiek found on Xiaohongshu." height="1061" width="1415" msid="108773468" hostid="261" sizebytes="99582"></div>AI has been extensively reported to often be a<a target="_blank" href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/04/1080801/generative-ai-boosting-disinformation-and-propaganda-freedom-house/"> tool for propaganda,</a> even outside China. US intelligence agencies have<a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-russia-ai-divide-us-society-undermine-us-elections-power-rcna142880"> accused both Russia and China</a> of using deceptive methods to sway public opinion and cited AI as a prime concern.But Lyu said it's unclear if these deepfakes are part of a government operation or an effort by a third party, such as a pro-Russia or pro-China group.The Chinese and Russian foreign affairs ministries did not respond to requests for comment sent by BI.The culprits could also simply be experimenting with deepfakes in China, said Vincent Conitzer, the head of technical AI engagement at the Institute for Ethics in AI at Oxford University."Let's see what we can do. Let's see how people react. Do people buy it?" Conitzer said of the possible mindset behind the videos' creation. "Sometimes there might even be an aspect of, 'Let's see how people react to it,' even when they can pretty clearly identify that it is fake."<h2>No good options for Loiek</h2>AI experts like Lyu say Loiek is taking the best course of action available by drawing attention to the deepfakes and asking her followers to report them.Few other options are realistically available to her, they said.Lu, an information analytics professor at Santa Clara University, is another researcher besides Lyu who's recently seen deepfakes like Loiek's on Chinese social media. He told BI that he's tried to report them to the Chinese authorities.Filing an internet crime report typically requires a Chinese ID, akin to a Social Security number, he said."It would be very difficult for foreign victims to report this," Lu said. "Technically, it's impossible."Nirupam Roy, an assistant professor at the university's computer science department, said his team is working on an anti-manipulation software called TalkLock that can flag altered content.But fighting deepfakes like this would require companies like Xiaohongshu to come on board and use such software."The push for a standard measure like this typically depends on how aware people are of the problem," Roy said.And with no international agreement yet on AI issues, it would be difficult for Loeik to sue even if she found the culprits, said Ari Lightman, a digital media professor at Carnegie Mellon University."These things are going to happen over and over again," he told BI.Meanwhile, Loiek says she'll still work on her channel despite knowing that any content she uploads can become a deepfake in China."I don't think I have to think from a place of fear," she said. "But I understand every time I post a video, there's a possibility that it can happen."

A UPenn student started a YouTube channel. In weeks, her face was stolen on China's social media.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The turmoil of the US withdrawal from <keyword id="11892774" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="afghanistan" source="Orion">Afghanistan</keyword> has prompted new criticism of the exit.</li><li>Critics argue the US leaving Afghanistan benefits <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>, which will use the US absence to pursue its interests.</li><li>Experts say the US loses little by withdrawing and leaving China to deal with an unstable neighbor.</li></ul>The <keyword id="11892778" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="taliban" source="Orion">Taliban</keyword>'s rapid return to power in Afghanistan has drawn more criticism for the US withdrawal, including that the US is ceding strategically valuable ground to China.That warning has come from current and former US officials and other observers, but experts told Insider that the US exit likely presents China with new concerns about its neighbor and costs the US little in terms of strategic positioning.In a mid-June interview, Gen Frank McKenzie, who oversees US military operations in the Middle East, said he suspected China would pursue economic interests in Afghanistan after the US departure."I think they would like to get in for the mass mineral deposits that exist on the ground in Afghanistan and in other places," McKenzie <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/06/12/centcom-commander-vows-to-keep-the-pressure-on-adversaries-even-after-leaving-afghanistan-exclusive-interview/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Military Times</a>.Later that month, Rep. Mike Waltz, a Republican and former Green Beret, suggested that Afghanistan's Bagram airbase could be useful for operations against China - specifically against ICBM facilities in western China.<div type="image" title="taliban fighters in kabul" height="2769" width="3722" msid="85503072" hostid="261"></div>"If you are ever asked to undertake any type of unconventional warfare activities against the Chinese Communist Party, it's notable that most of their new nuclear capabilities coming online are in western China, 400 miles from Bagram," Waltz said to Gen. Richard Clarke, the head of US Special Operations Command, during a <a href="https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings?ID=1326FFE0-96A7-4DB5-BE82-1028A6E48EBF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hearing</a>.Experts outside government have argued the withdrawal <a href="https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/chinas-plans-afghanistan-following-us-troop-withdrawal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reduces</a> the US's ability to deter China and <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/07/how-afghanistan-withdrawal-costs-us-china/182882/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will create</a> problems that will undermine the benefits of withdrawing."It doesn't help us, I don't think, reputationally in connection with the competition with China, and it doesn't help us geostrategically, either," H.R. McMaster, a retired general and former national security adviser to President Donald Trump, <a href="https://twitter.com/AsiaSociety/status/1428158522160599044" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> this week.Chinese officials and state-linked media have gloated about the disarray of the withdrawal, using it to <a href="https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1426949490380967937" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tout</a> a narrative of US decline, promote China as a global power, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-drills-near-taiwan-chinese-media-warns-us-wont-help-2021-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threaten Taiwan</a>."Wherever the US sets foot, be it Iraq, Syria, or Afghanistan, we see turbulence, division, broken families, deaths and other scars in the mess it has left," a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1900083.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> Tuesday.<h2>Pyrrhic victory</h2><div type="image" title="Chinese patrol in Kashgar Xinjiang" height="1333" width="2000" msid="85503073" hostid="261"></div>Despite its rhetoric, Beijing has plenty worry about.China's interests in Afghanistan "are dominated by security considerations" in the near- to medium-term, Daniel Markey, a professor in <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">international</keyword> relations at Johns Hopkins University, told Insider in July.Beijing's chief concern is the Taliban or other fundamentalists, including Uighurs, causing trouble either indirectly through threats to Chinese interests in neighboring countries, especially Pakistan, or directly through activity in China, particularly in Xinjiang Province, said Markey, an expert on South Asia.Chinese officials are reportedly worried the Taliban's swift victory will <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2021/08/05/chinas-fears-increase-as-us-troops-leave-afghanistan-493851" target="_blank" rel="noopener">embolden</a> those groups and <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3145499/beijing-cant-yet-trust-talibans-terrorism-promises-chinese" target="_blank" rel="noopener">skeptical</a> that the Taliban will crack down on them.The US withdrawal has also renewed <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231749.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">discussion</a> of Chinese economic involvement in Afghanistan, but with heightened instability and uncertainty about Afghanistan's new rulers, it's not clear that China stands to benefit.<div type="image" title="Chinese sign in Afghanistan Aynak copper mine" height="1500" width="2000" msid="85503074" hostid="261"></div>The US at times encouraged Chinese investment in Afghanistan, but "results were modest at best," Markey said. Two major projects begun there a decade ago <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/The-myth-of-Chinese-investment-in-Afghanistan2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stalled</a>, and talk of extending the Belt and Road Initiative amounted to little.A Taliban spokesman <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3140399/china-welcome-friend-reconstruction-afghanistan-taliban" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in July that the group would guarantee the safety of Chinese investors and workers in Afghanistan, but security concerns will likely continue to limit Chinese investments there, which are modest but important, Sean Roberts, a professor of international affairs at George Washington University, told Insider in July."The security of these interests benefited from the US military presence," added Roberts, an expert on Central Asia.China has already "cultivated direct ties" to different groups in Afghanistan, Markey said. The possibility of renewed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/18/mujahideen-resistance-taliban-ahmad-massoud/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">resistance</a> to Taliban rule in northern Afghanistan may mean China will have to continue navigating between those factions.Beijing is likely to rely heavily on Pakistan to maintain stability in Afghanistan, but whether competing factions in Islamabad can unite in that goal remains to be seen."I believe that Beijing would prefer not to become entangled with either the internal <keyword id="11893346" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="politics" source="Orion">politics</keyword> or the security situation" in Afghanistan, Roberts said, "but this will be increasingly more difficult to do given the US military withdrawal."<div type="image" title="Mountains in Wakhan Corridor Afghanistan" height="1335" width="2000" msid="85503075" hostid="261"></div>Just as the US withdrawal does little to improve China's security situation, it has limited effect on the US's ability to counter China militarily, according to Gil Barndollar, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities.Afghanistan's roughly 60-mile border with China is mostly high-altitude, impassable mountain terrain. "You've got this tiny little piece of Afghanistan that borders western China. That doesn't give you a heck of lot," Barndollar told Insider.That region is far from Chinese industrial, military, and population centers, and in a major war the narrow frontier "makes the Chinese problem with targeting anything coming through there much easier," added Barndollar, who twice deployed to Afghanistan as a Marine.The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/08/17/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-and-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-august-17-2021/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">discounted</a> the value of a military presence in Afghanistan for countering China and other neighboring countries, including Iran."One small silver lining is that this is now somebody else's problem," Barndollar said. "We should be looking forward to unloading that problem on ... regional powers."<h2>'A real test' for China</h2><div type="image" title="Taliban meeting with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi" height="1358" width="2000" msid="85503076" hostid="261"></div>China has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-20/china-s-warm-welcome-for-taliban-sparks-backlash-at-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">moderated</a> its embrace of the Taliban in recent days, after its welcoming language prompted backlash at home."The top priority for the international community is to help and encourage different factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan to ... find an open and inclusive political framework that is accepted by the Afghan people," a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Friday.It's unclear if China can help stabilize Afghanistan, but the US shouldn't necessarily object if it tries, Roberts said."I think the US should welcome China's involvement in Afghanistan rather than view it as a threat," Roberts said. "It presents a real test of whether Beijing can be a responsible actor on the world stage."Asked in July if the Pentagon had any strategic concerns about an increased Chinese presence in Afghanistan, chief spokesman John Kirby told Insider that "our hope" is countries seeking involvement in Afghanistan "do so with the Afghan people the foremost in mind and ... with a spirit of supporting a negotiated political solution."While critics have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/contrary-intent-bidens-afghan-pullout-could-undermine-asia-shift-2021-08-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the shambolic withdrawal means Afghanistan will need continued US attention and resources, Biden himself has argued the benefits of ending the war are clear."Our true strategic competitors - China and Russia - would love nothing more than the United States to continue to funnel billions of dollars in resources and attention into stabilizing Afghanistan indefinitely," Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/16/remarks-by-president-biden-on-afghanistan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> this week.

As the US scrambles out of Afghanistan, warnings grow about what China plans to do there

By Sajjad Hussain Islamabad, Dec 28 () Pakistan has rolled out the first batch of its indigenous dual-seat fighter jets, manufactured in collaboration with its all-weather ally China. To mark the occasion, a grand ceremony was held at the Aircraft Manufacturing Factory in Kamra near Islamabad on Friday, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) said in a statement. Pakistan's Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan, Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing and Aviation Industries of China Executive Vice President Hao Zhaoping were present on the occasion. The first batch of eight dual-seat JF-17 aircraft was manufactured by the <keyword id="1188469" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pakistan-Aeronautical-Complex">Pakistan Aeronautical Complex</keyword> (PAC) in collaboration with the China National Aero-Technology Import &amp; Export Corporation (CATIC). Air Chief Khan congratulated the PAC and the CATIC on completing the fighter jets in a record time of five months. He said the serial production of the dual-seat variant was a landmark development for the JF-17 programme and a true manifestation of the everlasting Sino-Pak friendship. Khan said the JF-17 Thunder was the backbone of the PAF. Chinese Ambassador Yao said the JF-17 was a testimony of the friendship and mutual cooperation between China and Pakistan. The PAC and the CATIC also signed an agreement for co-production of Chinese commercial aircraft, the statement said. SH SCY

Pakistan rolls out first batch of dual-seat fighter jets manufactured in collaboration with China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Relations between the US and <keyword id="11892747" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> and between <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword> and <keyword id="11893449" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pakistan" source="Orion">Pakistan</keyword> are growing closer.</li><li>India and Pakistan are looking to boost their military capabilities, while the US and China are looking for support of their regional and global ambitions.</li></ul>In the final months of 2021, Pakistan <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/11/pakistan-navy-commissions-1st-type-054-a-p-frigate-pns-tughril/" target="_top">commissioned</a> the first of four Chinese-built Tughril-class frigates and <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/01/03/pakistan-confirms-chinese-firebird-fighter-acquisition/" target="_top">confirmed</a> its intentions to buy 25 of China's <a href="https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/j-10/" target="_top">J-10C</a> fighter jets.Those are only the latest high-profile defense projects between Beijing and Islamabad, and they are emblematic of the growing relations between two countries with a common goal: countering the threat they see in India.At the same time, India has increasingly turned to the US to meet its defense needs. The US has become a large supplier of arms to India over the past decade, and the two countries have deepened <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-intelligence-sharing-with-india-helps-monitor-chinese-military-2020-12" target="_top">their defense cooperation</a> as well.The moves add another geopolitical layer to what was already one of the world's most intense rivalries.<h2>Old rivals seek new friends</h2><div type="image" title="Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan in Chinese J-10C jet" height="683" width="1024" msid="90400022" hostid="261"></div>Before China became Pakistan's chief arms supplier in the 1990s, Islamabad relied on the US for higher-end defense equipment and assistance — a partnership borne out of cooperation to oust the Soviets from Afghanistan in the 1980s.China and Pakistan's military relationship dates to the 1960s, but in recent years, the Pakistani military's hardware has increasingly come from China or through joint Pakistani-Chinese ventures.Virtually all of <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/11/19/pakistan-resumes-armor-modernization-as-terror-threat-recedes/" target="_top">Pakistan's main battle tanks</a> are exported Chinese models or variants of Chinese tanks developed in Pakistan, like the <a href="https://www.army-technology.com/projects/alzarrarmianbattleta/" target="_top">Al-Zarrar</a>. Pakistan has fielded upgraded variants of the <a href="https://www.armyrecognition.com/pakistan_pakistani_army_tanks_heavy_armoured_uk/al_khalid_al-khalid_main_battle_tank_technical_data_pictures.html" target="_top">Al-Khalid</a> tank, developed jointly with a Chinese firm and in production since 2001, and <a href="https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/pakistan-army-holds-induction-ceremony-for-vt4-mbt" target="_top">begun acquiring</a> Chinese-made <a href="https://www.armyrecognition.com/china_chinese_heavy_armoured_vehicle_tank_uk/vt4_mbt-3000_norinco_mbt_main_battle_tank_data_pictures_video.html" target="_top">VT-4</a> tanks.The workhorse of Pakistan's Air Force is the <a href="https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/fc1xiaolongjf17thund/" target="_top">JF-17</a>, a fighter developed jointly with China and meant to replace Pakistan's aging Chinese-made J-7s. The PAF also <a href="https://eurasiantimes.com/satellite-image-reveals-chinese-predator-drones-armed-with-hellfire-type-missiles-stationed-at-pakistani-airbase/" target="_top">operates</a> a number of Chinese-made drones capable of strike missions.As the PAF's use of its US-made F-16s is <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2019-12-11/state-department-reprimanded-pakistan-in-august-for-misusing-f-16s-document-shows" target="_top">limited</a> by the terms of their sale, buying J-10Cs may be an attempt to substitute or even replace the American fighter with one Pakistan can actually use against India.<div type="image" title="Pakistan Zulfiqar-class frigate Shamsheer" height="1337" width="2000" msid="90400023" hostid="261"></div>At sea, three of the Pakistani navy's four <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/sword-f22p/" target="_top">Zulfiquar-class</a> frigates were built in China like the Tughril-class frigates, the fourth of which was <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/12/chinese-shipyard-launches-two-type-054-frigates-and-one-type-071e-lpd/" target="_top">launched</a> in December.China is also helping Pakistan <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/12/pakistan-cuts-steel-for-5th-hangor-class-submarine-pns-tasnim/" target="_top">build</a> eight Hangor-class submarines — a variant of China's <a href="https://news.usni.org/2015/08/31/essay-inside-the-design-of-chinas-yuan-class-submarine" target="_top">Type 039A</a> diesel-electric sub — splitting production between Chinese and Pakistani shipyards. They are expected to be delivered between 2022 and 2028 and will <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/10/pakistans-new-chinese-aip-submarines-image-shows-karachi-site/" target="_top">double</a> the size of Pakistan's submarine fleet.The defense relationship <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/China-and-Pakistan-ink-military-MOU-to-counter-US-India-pact" target="_top">goes beyond</a> weapons sales. China and Pakistan <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1646630" target="_top">regularly</a> conduct <a href="https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/defense-security/importance-of-shaheen-exercises-for-pakistan-air-force-and-indian-concerns/" target="_top">joint</a> and multinational <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/east-asia-pacific_chinas-warships-hold-joint-naval-drill-pakistan/6182310.html" target="_top">military exercises</a>. Officials from both countries speak of their relationship in glowing terms, describing it as <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Pakistan-China-and-terrorism" target="_top">"close as lips and teeth"</a> and <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/10161516/China-Pakistan-friendship-sweeter-than-honey-says-Nawaz-Sharif.html" target="_top">"sweeter than honey."</a>As its two fiercest rivals have deepened their defense ties, India has deepened its own military partnerships, in particular with Russia, which has for decades supplied India with advanced hardware.The US has historically been reluctant to sell arms to India because of New Delhi's ties with Moscow and fears that those weapons may be used in a war in <keyword id="11893424" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="south-asia" source="Orion">South Asia</keyword>. But in recent years India has increased its purchases of defense equipment from the US and other Western countries.<div type="image" title="India Australia US Navy P-8" height="1125" width="1500" msid="90400024" hostid="261"></div>Since the signing of the <a href="http://library.rumsfeld.com/doclib/sp/3211/2005-06-28%20New%20Framework%20for%20the%20US-India%20Defense%20Relationship.pdf" target="_top">New Framework for the US-India Defense Relationship</a> in 2005, India has purchased <a href="https://theprint.in/defence/c-130j-super-hercules-lands-on-national-highway-heres-a-look-at-past-landings-on-expressways/730942/" target="_top">dozens</a> of US-made <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/india-takes-delivery-of-11th-c-17-globemaster-from-united-states/" target="_top">cargo</a> aircraft and <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-gets-final-batch-of-apache-attack-helicopters-amid-ongoing-standoff-with-china/articleshow/76896252.cms" target="_top">attack</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZXNXX1aS08" target="_top">transport</a> helicopters — including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-aircraft-boost-india-efforts-to-counter-china-at-sea-2021-7" target="_top">MH-60R Seahawk</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-more-us-made-sub-hunting-planes-2018-1" target="_top">P-8I maritime patrol planes</a>, both of which are important for Indian efforts to keep an eye on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/after-himalayan-clash-india-prepares-navy-to-take-on-china-2021-6" target="_top">increasing Chinese activity</a> in the <keyword id="13267637" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="indian-ocean" source="Orion">Indian Ocean</keyword>.The F/A-18, the F-15EX, and the F-21 (an F-16 variant made just for India by Lockheed Martin) are all <a href="https://eurasiantimes.com/indias-20b-multi-role-fighter-aircraft-mrfa-contract-junk-us-fighters/" target="_top">in the running</a> to fill an Indian order for 114 new fighter jets. The F/A-18 is also <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/india-closing-fa-18-super-hornet-its-carrier-fighter-200384" target="_top">a contender</a> to be used aboard India's first domestically built aircraft carrier, <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-first-indigenous-aircraft-carrier-ins-vikrant-sea-trails-7714755/" target="_top">INS Vikrant</a>.The US has also sold India lethal weaponry such as <a href="https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/india-mk-54-lightweight-torpedoes-0" target="_top">torpedos</a>, anti-ship <a href="https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/india-agm-84l-harpoon-air-launched-block-ii-missiles" target="_top">missiles</a>, <a href="https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/india-mk-45-gun-system" target="_top">naval guns</a>, an anti-aircraft <a href="https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/india-integrated-air-defense-weapon-system-iadws-and-related-equipment" target="_top">system</a>, <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/army-to-get-firepower-boost-in-mountains-with-more-m777-guns-101636896249075.html" target="_top">M777 howitzers</a>, and 144,000 US-made <a href="https://theprint.in/defence/indian-army-to-order-second-batch-of-72000-sig-716-assault-rifles-from-us/459438/" target="_top">SIG716</a> rifles.India's military participates in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-indian-soldiers-yudh-abhyas-exercise-alaska-amid-china-tension-2021-12" target="_top">land</a> and <a href="https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2021-10-14/quad-malabar-naval-drills-india-us-australia-japan-3237200.html" target="_top">naval</a> exercises with the US, and the two sides have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-intelligence-sharing-with-india-helps-monitor-chinese-military-2020-12" target="_top">expanded their intelligence-sharing</a> amid tensions along India's disputed border with China.<h2>Geopolitical realities</h2><div type="image" title="India China border guards" height="1648" width="2464" msid="90400025" hostid="261"></div>The developments in the China-Pakistan and US-India relationships reflect the geopolitical realities in South Asia and across the Asia-Pacific region.India and Pakistan have looked to the US and to China to boost their military capabilities, while the US and China are looking to India and Pakistan to support their regional and global ambitions.Pakistan's <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/the-implications-of-deepening-economic-ties-between-pakistan-china-/6443711.html" target="_top">reliance on China</a>, in particular Chinese investment in the <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/china-pakistan-economic-corridor-hard-reality-greets-bris-signature-initiative" target="_top">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor</a>, will only increase in the aftermath of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The withdrawal is also likely to reduce the US's commitment to Pakistan, as they are aligned on few other issues."The China-Pakistan relationship is deeper because China's goals are more aligned with what Pakistan wants, which is the ability to counter its main rival, India," Timothy Heath, a senior <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">international</keyword> and defense researcher at the Rand Corporation think tank, told Insider.<div type="image" title="Pakistan Gwadar port China Kashgar trade" height="1331" width="2000" msid="90400027" hostid="261"></div>"China hopes to keep a strong, relatively well-equipped and well-armed Pakistan as a partner, because from Beijing's perspective, that helps keep a potential rival — namely India — distracted and unable to cause more problems for China," Heath added.Some in Pakistan <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/23/opinion/pakistan-united-states-china.html" target="_top">are wary</a> of going all-in on China and may seek rapprochement with the US, particularly if China grows reluctant to invest further in Pakistan's struggling economy. Beijing has also stopped short of making a military commitment to Pakistan — largely because it fears getting dragged into a full-blown conflict between Pakistan and India."They have a good deal where they use Pakistan to box in India and they stay outside and allow those two to bleed each other and beat each other up a little bit," Heath said.While Beijing wants to avoid "extreme escalations," Heath said, "tensions of a low simmering type are useful for China."For India, the US has emerged as a prime partner as Delhi grows more concerned with Chinese ambitions and the potential for conflict along its borders with both China and Pakistan.<div type="image" title="India Pakistan MiG-21 missiles" height="1331" width="2000" msid="90400028" hostid="261"></div>The US-India relationship is "primarily driven by a strategic convergence," said Rahul Bhatia, a research analyst at Carnegie India."New Delhi and Washington essentially want multipolarity in the Indo-Pacific and a rules-based international order, which very loosely translates to containing China," Bhatia said, adding that "they need each other for that."But despite a deepening defense relationship, India doesn't seek a full-fledged alliance with the US for a variety of political and economic reasons."When the US wants to sell a country arms, they are looking at building up a strategic partnership and interoperability. What India looks at when it's buying arms is building its own defense industrial base and the transfer of technology," Bhatia said.Moreover, India does not want to break from its traditional stance of non-alignment."They want to maintain their strategic autonomy," Heath said. "That's a very deeply rooted tradition vigorously alive in India today."

The US and China are picking sides in one of the world's most dangerous rivalries

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="6360409" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="nasa" source="Orion">NASA</keyword> is going back to the <keyword id="42440" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="moon" source="Orion">moon</keyword>, and this time it means business. </li><li>Private companies are helping it build lunar transport, GPS, Wi-Fi, and more.</li></ul>If NASA has its way, it will send astronauts back to the moon by the end of the decade, making them the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moon-missions-why-astronauts-have-not-returned-2018-7">first humans to walk</a> on the lunar surface in over half a century. But this isn't just another scientific mission. This time around, NASA means business. With its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasas-artemis-1-rocket-sending-quirky-cargo-moon-and-back-2022-8">Artemis missions</a>, the US space agency aims to lay the foundations for the first human settlements beyond Earth and pave the way for extraplanetary colonization. And business is at the core of its strategy. "It's not theoretical at this point — it's happening," Brendan Rosseau, a teaching fellow at Harvard Business School who focuses on the space economy, told Insider. The agency is tagging private companies <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-is-planning-starship-launch-moon-artemis-2023-2">like SpaceX</a>, Blue Origin, Nokia, Lockheed Martin, and General Motors, to develop solutions for its lunar missions such as space-worthy rides, moon streaming, lunar GPS, and more. This new market — worth <a href="https://www.nsr.com/?research=lunar-markets-3rd-edition" target="_blank">over $100 billion</a>— could be game-changing for humanity. "Definitely the moon is going to be a big business," said Prachi Kawade, a senior analyst at NSR, a research-and-consulting company focused on the space market. <h2>Artemis is not Apollo 2</h2>What NASA is aiming to achieve on the moon is "something that's never been done before," Rosseau said. While the Apollo missions of the 60s and 70s wanted to see if humans could reach the moon, the Artemis missions want humans to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-artemis-humans-to-live-moon-by-2030-says-official-2022-11">live there, work there</a>, and build there. At first, lunar missions could be limited to a couple of weeks or months in a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-details-of-artemis-missions-astronauts-return-to-moon-2020-9">lunar base camp</a>. But down the line, the ambition is for the moon to become a hub of human and robotic activity as it develops into a pit stop on the way to Mars. <div type="image" title="An illustration shows what a lunar base could look like, with astronauts walking around in suits doing tasks and the earth on the horizon." height="1500" width="2000" msid="102476589" hostid="261"></div>This creates a lot of opportunities for commercial development along the way, and NASA is aware of that. "We want to leave behind a wake of commercial activity and commerce and more routine living and working in space," Steve Creech, acting deputy associate administrator for the Artemis campaign, told Insider. <h2>There could be big bucks in moon mining</h2>Ultimately, the moon's main commercial draw is its potential for "in-situ resource utilization," Creech said. This means finding ways to mine and exploit lunar resources on the moon or on Earth. <div type="image" title="A footstep left behind by an astronaut's boot on the regolith on the moon." height="1000" width="2000" msid="102476591" hostid="261"></div>One commercially-interesting <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-lunar-rover-found-thick-dust-on-moon-far-side-2020-2">resource is regolith</a>, the scientific name for moon dust. This could be <a href="https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface" target="_blank">mined for helium-3</a> — a rare nonradioactive particle that could be used in fusion reactors to create clean energy on Earth — or could also be used for construction on the moon. <keyword id="1334" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>, for instance, said it wants to build <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-to-build-moon-station-five-years-lunar-soil-bricks-2023-4">its lunar station</a> out of regolith. Another lead for moon mining is <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rare-earth-elements-what-they-are-and-why-they-matter-1032148341">the rare-earth elements</a> that millennia of meteorites crashing into the moon may have left behind. These could be mined for electronics, Kawade said. But the moon's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/webb-telescope-captures-enceladus-water-plume-thousands-miles-long-2023-5">most attractive resource by far is water</a>. Scientists discovered <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-scientists-discover-moons-hidden-water-stores-2020-10">caches of water</a> near the moon's poles that could be extracted and turned into fuel to extend lunar missions or to fill up rockets on their way to Mars, per Kawade. "So the moon becomes a pit stop to Mars," Kawade said. <div type="image" title="ice water moon poles" height="485" width="970" msid="102476594" hostid="261"></div>We're probably at least a decade away from sending people or robots to mine the surface of the moon, but that doesn't mean people aren't already making money as they lay the groundwork for this business, Kawade said. "We are talking somewhere about $137 billion in opportunities in the next 10 years, and we estimate about 400-plus missions to be launched during this timeline," said Kawade. <h2>NASA wants to bring business with it to the moon </h2>Artemis is part of a grander scheme to empower the commercial sector to take charge of space exploration, a move initiated by then-President George W. Bush in the 2000s. He asked NASA to put the private sector at the center of its strategy after retiring the space shuttle program. Since then, NASA developed a "real commercial-first mindset," Rousseau said. The agency now awards <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-to-bed-nasa-lunar-lander-spacex-2022-3">contracts</a> to private actors to deliver products — such as rockets, landers, or services — against set amounts of money. <div type="image" title="The space shuttle is seen lifting off in the 90s." height="2069" width="4139" msid="102476597" hostid="261"></div>This means the agency limits its own research and development costs, while companies can take risks in developing ambitious technology because they have NASA as a built-in customer. "It is baking in the commercial sector as part of their plans," said Rosseau. "It created competition. It created incentives for companies to do things as reliably and also as cheaply as possible," he said. Per Rosseau, this model has started to bear fruit. Companies like Blue Origin and <keyword id="6360701" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="spacex" source="Orion">SpaceX</keyword> likely wouldn't exist without NASA's ambition to go to the moon, he argued. <h2>There's money in making future moon settlers comfortable</h2>You can't have mining on the moon without the proper infrastructure. And those looking to build it are starting to see money coming in. One way to support long-term missions is to find ways to do cheap Earth-to-moon deliveries. NASA has been investing heavily in the development of uncrewed robotic landers that can deliver goods and services to the moon through its Commercial Lunar Payload Services or <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-moon-rover-rocket-company-commercial-lunar-payload-services-clps-2020-6">CLPS</a> program. Pittsburg aerospace and robotics company Astrobotic Technology is one of the main players in the CLPS program. It landed a contract worth $320 million to deliver several payloads for NASA. One such payload, the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover or VIPER, is set to be delivered to the south pole <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-replans-clps-delivery-of-viper-to-2024-to-reduce-risk" target="_blank">in 2024.</a> The robot will seek out traces of water ice on the moon. <div type="image" title="viper moon rover nasa" height="937" width="1874" msid="102476599" hostid="261"></div><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/intuitive-machines-adds-7-on-successful-test-run-of-nova-c-lunar-lander-1032447922">Intuitive Machines</a>, a space-exploration company based in Texas, also won also a $77 million contract from NASA for three payload missions, two of which are set to be delivered this year. One of these is the Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment-1 (PRIME-1) drill, which is due to test for ice below the moon's surface. This, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/game_changing_development/projects/PRIME-1" target="_blank">per NASA</a>, will be the first in-situ resource utilization demonstration on the moon. Astronauts will also need electricity. One plan is to build local power grids by bringing <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-plans-mini-nuclear-reactors-moon-power-lunar-colony-2022-7#:~:text=NASA%20is%20developing%20plans%20to,Mars%2C%20an%20expert%20told%20Insider.">nuclear power reactors</a> to the moon. Lockheed Martin is one of the companies working on a concept proposal. NASA is also looking to develop appropriate moon-worthy rides. General Motors is teaming up with Lockheed Martin to develop a battery-powered lunar rover that could travel much further than those used in the Apollo days. Another prerequisite for long-term settlement is navigation and communications. There's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/no-gps-on-moon-nasa-esa-artemis-plans-to-fix-2023-1">no GPS or Wi-Fi </a>around or on the moon. That means missions rely on constant supervision from engineers on Earth, which will quickly become unsustainable as hundreds of missions are planned to be launched over the next decade. To fill that void, NASA awarded a $14 million contract to Nokia to deliver internet to the moon. <a href="https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2023/02/27/nokia-bell-labs-showcases-cutting-edge-research-on-lunar-networks-and-6g-at-mwc23/https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/nokia-set-to-launch-4g-internet-on-the-moon-later-this-year.html#:~:text=Nokia%20is%20planning%20to%20launch,needs%20of%20future%20space%20missions.https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-nokia-4g-network-moon-2020-10" target="_blank">The firm aims to send a 4G network to the moon</a> by 2024.<a href="https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2023/02/27/nokia-bell-labs-showcases-cutting-edge-research-on-lunar-networks-and-6g-at-mwc23/" target="_blank"></a> <div type="image" title="An artist's impression shows an astronaut sitting back while taking a picture of the Earth rising behind the surface of the moon with a smartphone." height="1000" width="2000" msid="102476602" hostid="261"></div><h2>Fly me to the moon</h2>However, the most lucrative part of the moon market by far is rocket development, said Kawade, who leads NSR's lunar-market report. NASA built its own system for its upcoming Artemis moon missions, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-how-nasa-built-sls-mega-rocket-artemis-moon-missions-2022-8">the Space Launch System</a> (SLS) mega-rocket with its Orion spacecraft. But the agency has put the development of the mission's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-elon-musk-nasa-lunar-landing-astronauts-2021-4">human landing system</a> (HLS), which will bring astronauts from the moon's orbit to the lunar surface, in the hands of private companies. <keyword id="6355315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Elon-Musk" source="Orion">Elon Musk</keyword>'s SpaceX has been the frontrunner in the race to land this bid, gaining billion-dollar contracts to develop the HLS for NASA's Artemis III and IV missions. Along the way, Musk has promised to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starship-rocket-update-flight-cost-million-2022-2">reduce the cost of launch</a> and to make <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-sn15-starship-rocket-fly-again-soon-2021-5">its rockets reusable</a>, which could lower the cost of future missions. NASA's contracts also boosted the development of the company's flagship high-capacity <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starship-spacex-elon-musk-reusable-rocket-mars-moon-launch-2023-2">mega-rocket Starship</a>, SpaceX's most ambitious project yet. <div type="image" title="Starship rocket on its launchpad, minutes before its launch" height="1080" width="1440" msid="102476604" hostid="261"></div>There is one drawback: though Starship is crucial for NASA's upcoming missions, the rocket hasn't yet successfully flown to orbit. In fact, it <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-space-launch" target="_blank">exploded</a> on its first integrated launch in April. Still, NASA isn't putting all its stock in SpaceX. Blue Origin recently won a $3.4 billion contract for NASA's Artemis V human lunar launcher, a win for a company that had lost its previous bids to SpaceX. The contract should boost the development of the company's own mega-rocket, New Glenn. Even NASA's SLS spacecraft — which was built and developed in-house, a relic of NASA's old approach to rocket development — has been big money for the private sector. Lockheed Martin was awarded a $2.7 billion contract and a $1.9 billion extension to deliver six Orion spacecraft for the Artemis missions III to VIII. <h2>The market may not be self-sustaining before mid-2030, but that may not matter</h2>At this point, NASA remains the most prominent client in the lunar market. If the US government decided tomorrow to pull its backing from private investment, it's possible the market wouldn't survive off its own back. Private investment in extraplanetary exploration and exploitation has only just started to trickle in, which is encouraging, Kawade said. For instance, AstroForge, an asteroid-mining startup in California, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/26/astroforge-raises-13m-seed-round-for-asteroid-mining-ambitions/" target="_blank">has raised $13 million</a> in private capital for two upcoming missions. Lunar Outpost, a space-tech firm from Colorado, <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220524005399/en/Lunar-Outpost-Announces-12-Million-Seed-Investment-to-Scale-Mobility-Technology-Enabling-Commercial-Lunar-Advancement" target="_blank">raised $12 million in seed investment</a> to develop lunar rovers and technologies. Still, if the market is to be self-sustaining, companies will need to find other clients to buy what they are selling on the moon, and it's not clear whether anyone has cracked this business model, Rosseau said. Still, Rosseau anticipates, this flash point could be coming in the mid-2030s. "I think what really gets investors and businesses excited is seeing these huge tailwinds when it comes to lunar activity," he said. Whether the lunar market can survive without NASA might be missing the point anyway, Kawade said. On the way to the moon, companies are likely to discover technologies that can have lucrative applications here on Earth, she said. Following NASA's lead, others have also started looping in the private sector to their space exploration programs, including <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/industry/space-industry/lunar-market-assessment-2021.pdf" target="_blank">Japan, China, and Russia</a>'s space agencies. <h2>Welcome to the space race of the 2020s</h2>Money isn't the only drive pushing the US and its allies to bring businesses to the moon. There are strong political incentives to get there before China, Rosseau said. "It is a fact: We're in a space race," NASA's current administrator <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-bill-nelson-warns-china-claim-moon-territory-lunar-resources-2023-1">Bill Nelson</a> told Politico in January. "It is true that we better watch out that they don't get to a place on the moon under the guise of scientific research," he added. "And it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they say, 'Keep out, we're here, this is our territory.'" More than 24 space-faring nations have signed the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html" target="_blank">US's Artemis Accords,</a> a set of rules drawn up by NASA for international cooperation on the moon. China was not one of them. The nation has set its own independent path to the moon, for which it is seeking <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-space-latin/" target="_blank">closer relations</a> with space agencies in Russia, Latin America, and Central Asia. The US still dominates space. It has more satellites in orbit — 3,433 US satellites in orbit versus 541 for China — and has more budget — about $60 billion in 2021 versus about $16 billion for China, Svetla Ben-Itzhak, then an assistant professor at Air University in Alabama, recently<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-the-us-in-a-space-race-against-china-203473" target="_blank"> told </a>The Conversation. Still, China is moving toward the moon on a competitive timeline. It attempted 55 launches in 2021, four more than the US, per Ben-Itzhak. It was also the first nation to put a spacecraft on the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/far-side-of-the-moon-china-rover-explores-tracks-2019-1">far side</a> of the moon in 2019 and has launched its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-to-launch-first-people-to-new-space-station-2021-6">own crewed space station</a> into orbit, just as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-pull-iss-2024-build-own-space-station-roscosmos-putin-2022-7">International Space Station is nearing the end</a> of its life. Both the US and China are signatories of the <a href="https://treaties.unoda.org/a/outer_space/china/ACC/washington#:~:text=The%20Republic%20of%20China%20signed,sole%20legal%20government%20of%20China%20." target="_blank">Outer Space Treaty</a>, which means they've agreed that no country can militarize or claim the moon. But there is still considerable "first-mover advantage" to whichever business gets there first, said Rousseau said. One issue, for instance, is interoperability between infrastructures. While NASA has been working with collaborators to develop a language that could be used across all lunar devices, China has not been participating. If it gets there first, it could set a different standard, foiling the US allies' efforts. "There's a real incentive for liberal democracies to get there — whoever gets there writes the rules essentially," Rousseau said. Correction: August 8, 2023 — An earlier version of this story misstated the affiliation of then assistant professor Svetla Ben-Itzhak. She was writing from the Air University in Alabama, not Pakistan.

The moon is open for business, and entrepreneurs are racing to make billions

Nepal's policymakers are undergoing 13 days' offline and online training for the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) in Beijing after China "especially invited" them to attend it, sources said. China has reserved several seats for policymakers of the mega Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project at its Science Academy in Beijing. The programme started on September 4 and will end on September 20, sources said. "China has invited policymakers of Nepal to attend the training programme so that they can understand how these GPS and its application works in the field of education, research, science and other fields," they said. The move of China is seen as a counter to the US-based Global Positioning System (GPS) hegemony and push for its own indigenously developed navigation system in the region. China uses its homegrown navigation system BeiDou for both military and civilian purposes. BDS, stated to be rivalling GPS, is the fourth global satellite navigation system in the world. Other systems are Russia's GLONASS and the European Union's Galileo. India too is developing its own navigational system called the <keyword id="1493841" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Regional-Navigation-Satellite-System">Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System</keyword> (<keyword id="1596484" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="IRNSS">IRNSS</keyword>), with an operational name of NAVIC. Sources said that BDS' implementation will not only reduce the dependence of Chinese aircraft, vehicles and anti-missile systems on GPS and GLONASS, but it will enhance the People's Liberation Army's capabilities in conducting overseas operations. BeiDou started providing independent navigation services over China in 2000 and will serve many countries part of BRI. Currently, BeiDou covers nearly 30 countries including Pakistan, Egypt and Indonesia. China's BRI is one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping. It is aimed at furthering China's influence abroad with infrastructure projects funded by Chinese investments all over the world. The initiative also led to allegations of smaller countries reeling under mounting Chinese debt after Sri Lanka handed over its strategic Hambantota port in a debt swap to China in 2017 on a 99-year lease. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, China has inked 198 cooperation documents with 167 countries and international organisations under the BRI. China sees its trade expansion with the BRI countries as a way out to sustain its exports amid declining trend in the US and European Union, its top export destinations till now. (Sumit Kumar Singh can be reached at sumit.k@ians.in) --IANS sk/kr

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